Ryan Howard Arbitration Victory Analysis – Phillies Nation

Ryan Howard Arbitration Victory Analysis

Defying the odds and historical precedent, Ryan Howard was awarded his arbitration claim $10 million this morning. The victory for Howard surpasses the previously held record (Andruw Jones, $8.2 million) for most money won through a player’s claim.

In a way, I have a feeling that this might just be a short-term victory for Howard. There is no denying that his recent numbers warrant $10 million per year. However, the one knock with Howard has always been the age at which he broke into the big leagues. That is to say, sure he is worth $10 million now; but from the Phillies perspective, this could provide an opportunity to front-load a contract or even knock off a year or two that they might otherwise could have afforded. Moreover, the Phils and Howard still could simply play the arbitration game for another couple of off-seasons, then let Howard become a free agent. So while the arbitrator’s decision today answers one major question, it also unveiled many more still pending.

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  1. Tim Malcolm

    February 21, 2008 at 10:59 am

    I like the idea of the Phillies front-loading a longterm deal. If they’re smart, something along the lines of 5 years for about $80MM or so could do the trick.

  2. NateB

    February 21, 2008 at 11:43 am

    they better make a deal soon or else howard will have a bad taste in his mouth from how cheap the phils’ management is, and leave for the money in new york or boston in 2012. as long as he’s healthy he should be a major threat for another 5 to 10 years after the 2011 season.

  3. Joel Rickenbach

    February 21, 2008 at 12:01 pm

    I don’t look forward to how this continues past this season, but at the very least Howard will feel good stepping up to the plate this year. There’s a very “now” feeling to the Phils, and we need every player firing on all cylinders. The last thing we need is another jilted Scott Rolen.

  4. Bill

    February 21, 2008 at 12:02 pm

    According to Comcast Sportsnet last night, Howard was looking for $20 million a year and a contract in the $200 million range. After this season, those numbers will go up. If the Phillies could work something out now, the cheap label and the unwilling to do what it takes to win label could be removed. If not, we had better get ready to see Howard in a Yankees, Red Sox, and even worse Mets uniform. I really hope the Phillies step up and sign him long term NOW but am not confident they will!


  5. Sean P.

    February 21, 2008 at 12:20 pm

    If Howard is allegedly looking for a $20 million year contract, its ridiculous to say sign him now and remove the cheap label. If he’s hitting 50 dingers for the next two years fine, but lets see that first.

    I can’t belive your saying pay Ryan Howard $20 mil for 10 years!?!?!? Then when he has an off year(s), he’ll end up getting crushed by fans & media.

    If this is how its going to be, i’d rather go to arbitration every year till 2011 and have him paid what he is worth.

  6. BFO

    February 21, 2008 at 12:26 pm

    I’m a big fan of Howard, but given a choice between seeing him a Yank or Bosox in 2012, or signing him for 10 years, I’d keep him through 2011, then take my chances. Hopefully they can work out a 5yr deal for 80 – 90 Mil.

  7. OZ

    February 21, 2008 at 12:36 pm

    More evidence of just how dumb Phils management/ownership is. The University of Pennsylvania should have its charter revoked for giving Dave Montgomery a degree. From a P.R. standpoint, the Phils’ suits could have won back (at some level) a lot of fans, by publically, promptly & happily giving Howard the 10m from the get-go. The players are likeable AND on the verge of winning IN SPITE OF the chimpanzees running this dreadful organization.

    somebody get me UPENN’s phone number.

  8. Rob

    February 21, 2008 at 12:57 pm

    I think we are missing something more important, 10 years places Howard at 38 goin on 39. Secondly he does not deserve 20 million a season I like the idea of 5-$85-$90 million front loaded. I am gonna get killed for this but I say trade Howard to San Francisco for Tim Linecum and another prospect. Then use the money you are not giving Howard to give Cole Hammels a 4 year-20 million deal to buy out arbitration and 1 year of free agency. Then look at Adam Dunn or Mark Texiera. Texiera might command more money but he is more technically sound hitter, better average, less strike outs, and he comes to the insanely hitter friendly park of the Citizen. Also he is a switch hitter. Also is anybody else noticing Writers outside of Philly, crapping on Kendrick. I have seen a bunch of articles ripping kendrick, it is F’n ridiculous.

  9. Gavin

    February 21, 2008 at 1:21 pm

    They will sign Howard to a 6 year 113mill deal after this season with a club option for a 7th year at 20 mill. They will back load it. Always do. In fact I may be wrong, but I dont the the MLBPA allows contract that decrease in value. I may be wrong. I dont think they’ll let him walk.

    I think the brass is worried about his conditioning and weight issues. Until he proves otherwise.

  10. Tim Malcolm

    February 21, 2008 at 3:07 pm

    For the most part, I’m against the long-term deal. Sign him 5 years, maybe, but anything longer is ridiculous. And $20 MM per year? No way. Sorry. I may go more in depth about this issue in a follow up later.

  11. Big Daddy

    February 21, 2008 at 5:08 pm

    Look Out, Ryan, the Phils have been toying around with Utley at 1st + going to the minors for a 2nd baseman in a year or two. They are + always have been a bottom line, cheap organization. Don’t be suprized if the team is sold within the next 2 years.

  12. Ely

    February 21, 2008 at 5:16 pm

  13. Jason

    February 21, 2008 at 8:00 pm

    “I am gonna get killed for this but I say trade Howard to San Francisco for Tim Linecum and another prospect. Then use the money you are not giving Howard to give Cole Hammels a 4 year-20 million deal to buy out arbitration and 1 year of free agency. Then look at Adam Dunn or Mark Texiera. Texiera might command more money but he is more technically sound hitter, better average, less strike outs, and he comes to the insanely hitter friendly park of the Citizen.”

    That is not a bad viewpoint at all. The Giants might just be willing enough to trade one of their young stud pitchers for Howard. I am thinking Matt Cain though. Texiera would be a nice replacement. Its an interesting way to look at it. If the management is truly not sold on Howard, than they should take some steps to get the max value out him.

  14. typhoon

    February 21, 2008 at 8:26 pm

    If Howard gets traded the Phillies must get a lot of value. Even more than the recent Santana, Bedard, Haren trades because Howard is an everyday player. For example, if Howard gets traded for the Giants it should be for two of Lowry/Cain/Linceum as well as a top (but not their #1) prospect. We could throw in Wes Helms since they need a third baseman…

  15. Rob

    February 22, 2008 at 10:22 am

    Wow that idea was much better recieved here then in other places. I agree Cain or Lincecum, I am not familar with their farm system, but i dont we would be able to pull a good fielding prospect from them. Mainly because that team’s offense is awful at best. I also would entertain the idea of trading Howard out of the NL, because lord knows he will come back to philly and deposit a couple balls into Tony Lukes Kitchen.

    Here is one for you, Howard and a prospect (Cardenas or Carpender), for Kazmir. TB has a new stadium opening and a plethora of pitching prospects. Kazmir is nearing free agency and no way in Hell TB can sign him, however the Phils have a chance to sign him(However he will command Santana money). He struck out 230 guys in the AL East, how many would he strike out in the NL east?

    Or screw it play it year to year with Howard and grab CC Sabathia

  16. Rosco

    February 22, 2008 at 11:57 am

    I love when the Phillies themselves hint at Ryan Howard’s age being a sticking point…what they don’t mention however, is that it was their own lack of foresight that kept Howard down in the minors too long.

    I’ll worry about 3 year after this season. I’m just hapy that opening day is right around the corner…and I gots good seat beyotches!

  17. typhoon

    February 22, 2008 at 3:14 pm

    Howard AND a prospect for Kazmir? It should be more like Howard for Kazmir and a prospect or Howard and a prospect for Kazmir and one of Garza or Shields. The Phillies have a bad track record recently when it comes to getting equal trade value, but if (I’m not necessarily saying they should) they trade Howard in the next few years they must get equal or as close to equal value as possible. They can’t get a punch of unproven prospects, but young players with some mlb experience.

  18. PHILLIES #1 Fan

    February 22, 2008 at 10:14 pm

    lol howard for kazmir and a prospect??? you’re crazy….Kazmir is one of the best pitchers in baseball top 5 and u think that Tampa would give him to the Phillies for a guy theyre going to have to pay millions plus add a prospect that the low budget team would be able to use cheap for years…haha think about it

  19. typhoon

    February 23, 2008 at 3:27 pm

    Howard is an everyday player, Kazmir is not. The Phillies might have to send some money over as well but Howard is much more valuable than Kazmir or any almost any pitcher. The D-Rays would also be able to fill more seats with Howard and could use him to DH. The Rays have other pitchers almost as good as Kazmir anyway. Plus this move would be a few years off anyway when Kazmir wouldn’t be as cheap as he is now.

  20. Interested

    April 2, 2008 at 12:29 pm

    Kazmir is an injury prone SP. Even if he strikes out 230 people a year, at friendly htting Phillies park he will be crushed (he is a fly ball power pitcher). I dont believe Howard will be a premier hitter for the rest of his career. So, how about Tim Linecum, and Cain as stated above. Its not that hard to land a guy who will be able to hit 30 hr in this park, so I say gather good young pitching, tie them up for a couple years, and then build another power hitting 1B.

  21. Phillies No. 1 Fan

    August 6, 2008 at 11:07 am

    I am so happy to have Ryan with us! I hope that he stays for his entire career!

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