2008 Season Preview: National League East – Phillies Nation

2008 Season Preview: National League East

And now, the NL East.

NL East

1. New York Mets
It’s sad to report, but I’m picking the Mets to win the East. The offense isn’t fantastic, but it’ll suffice. Jose Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Beltran comprise one of the top-3 trios in baseball. Behind them are a hodgepodge, including injured Moises Alou, light-swinging Brian Schneider, the OK Ryan Church and old Carlos Delgado. The supporting cast will lose them some games, but they’ll make them up with a great pitching staff. It’s Johan’s time in the NL, and he’ll be electric. I’m not counting too much on Pedro Martinez, but John Maine is enough of a No. 2 to give them huge numbers. Oliver Perez carries the back end with Orlando Hernandez and — soon — Mike Pelfrey. The difference is the bullpen: Billy Wagner might not be the greatest closer, but Pedro Feliciano and Aaron Heilman are as good as setup men get. Joe Smith is one to watch. There’s not much depth beyond the MLB club, but make no mistake: The Mets are determined to win this year above any. It is their year to take the East again.
Predicted Finish: 92-70

2. Atlanta Braves
Ouch, heh? Let’s see — a very offense top to bottom. Mark Teixeira is a beast, and he’s got Brian McCann and Jeff Franceour to help. Add young Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar and you’ve got a strong, formidable order. They’ll score runs. They can field too, like hell. The staff is old, but count on Tim Hudson to carry the weight while John Smoltz pitches in a solid final season. I don’t expect great things from Mike Hampton or even Tom Glavine, but their staff is as good as the Phils’ right now. The bullpen is strong with Rafael Soriano leading the charge, but injuries will wear them out. Still, they’re a hair better than the Phillies and will take the Wild Card.
Predicted Finish: 88-74

3. Philadelphia Phillies
Make no mistake, this is the pessimistic prediction, and I’m feeling very pessimistic. Optimistically, the lineup is amazing, the starting pitching doesn’t fall apart and the bullpen remains doable. If these things happen, this could be a 95-100 win team. But here’s the truth: Jamie Moyer is effective until the fifth inning; Kyle Kendrick will be worse, and maybe a lot worse; the fifth starter isn’t in the organization; Tom Gordon is not a good setup man; Ryan Madson and JC Romero will get overworked; there is no middle relief. And that’s just the pitching. The offense will be awesome, as Chase Utley and Ryan Howard will get theirs. Expect a let down from Jimmy Rollins — maybe an injury. Carlos Ruiz is a star catcher in the making, and Pat Burrell might deliver the goods in his contract year, but Jayson Werth, Pedro Feliz and Geoff Jenkins aren’t primed to take the baton. It’s a top-3 NL offense, but a bottom-3 NL staff. Chances are they’ll be dead by June, make their run and come up a few games short. But I really hope I’m wrong.
Predicted Finish: 85-77

4. Washington Nationals
It’s a good young team, but in no way are they ready. The offense is led by Ryan Zimmerman, who you’d think he’s 30 with his service time (he’s 23), and he’s primed for a tremendous year in Nationals Park. He’s backed by Nick Johnson, who’s probably been in the league for 15 years. The outfield is stacked with young troublemaker Elijah Dukes and crazy Lastings Milledge, and they’ll both be nice additions. Austin Kearns remains an enigma of hitting. Paul LoDuca gives relatively nothing to the team, and it won’t matter — the pitching staff is nothing. It’s led by Odalis Perez until Shawn Hill returns. Both won’t be lights out. There’s also Jason Bergmann and Matt Chico. The bullpen has standout Joel Hanrahan and a nice back end, led by closer Chad Cordero. But it’s not quite enough offense and no starting pitching. They’ll be a nice story; maybe even hitting .500, but I can’t say they will.
Predicted Finish: 75-87

5. Florida Marlins
Another good, young team, but they’re a year well behind Washington. They lost Miguel Cabrera, so it’s now the Hanley Ramirez show. Josh Willingham will drive him in with homers, and Dan Uggla will do the same with doubles. Cameron Maybin is close to joining the squad, and will be a nice fit when he does. The pitching staff is led by Mark Hendrickson — yes, the Mark Hendrickson — and has a bunch of young guys, including hopeful star Scott Olsen. Andrew Miller is also a nice arm. The bullpen has some good throwers, but they’re primed for a setback. Kevin Gregg won’t get many chances to save games, so he could be a bad play in the ninth. Still a year from making big noise, but then again, they are the Marlins — two titles in 15 years says something, right?
Predicted Finish: 63-99

Tomorrow I’ll have a more in depth preview of the Phillies, and I’ll tell you why I’m still on the fence about these guys.

Click to comment


  1. chris m

    March 29, 2008 at 6:32 pm

    maybe we should call this mets nation… you give more fuel to the mets fans then ours….mayb thats why there always on this site. its a phillies BLOG, lets be optimistic. Your talking about the mets big 3…there big 3 carries our big 3 jockstraps. hmmm moises alou and church angianst victorino and burell, im taking ours. and dont get me strarted on the braves. a blog is a site for fans not for wannabe experts. dont take it personal but lets get real!

  2. NateB

    March 29, 2008 at 7:44 pm

    The PHILLIES will win the NL East!!! Trust me, I already know…

  3. Clare

    March 29, 2008 at 9:01 pm

    It’s sad that even a Phillies blog is on the Mets bandwagon. And as Nate said, the East is ours, I already know. And believe me, we’re not the only ones who think that. Have some faith.

    And the Braves ahead of us? Come on now.

  4. Mike H.

    March 30, 2008 at 2:34 am

    Not sure who shot your dog, but you’ll have lots of company with your thoughts. No mention of Lidge doesn’t shock me. Can’t wait until tomorrow, though!

  5. Tim Malcolm

    March 30, 2008 at 1:28 pm

    Hey, I am optimistic – this is the ONE time I’ve been pessimistic, guys!

  6. Chuck

    March 30, 2008 at 3:19 pm

    You know if you go down the 2 rosters player by player, both Phillies-Mets and Phillies-Braves, there is a lot more question marks next to the players on the Phillies, as opposed to the Mets and Braves. yes our lineup has the potential to score 7 runs a game, but our pitching does not go beyond Myers and Hamels; I agree Madson will get over worked, Romero was used in a very limited role last year, 1-2 hitter, and they will use him more this year and get less results from him. Lidge, well who knows, the guy is already hurt and I donlt like Gordon filling in as a closer, even for one game. Moyer is ancient, and Kendrick had a miraculous season last year, and who knows if he can even come close to matching those numbers. Not to mention, we DONT have a 5th starter……..

    So putting the Phillies in 3rd place is not an assinine comment, its a very possible scenario. The phillies are depending on a lot of things to work in their favor to repeat, and yes its possible, but only time will tell.

    Im hoping for the best, 93-69. NL East Champs, The Mets and Braves are ancient, and our youth will prevail later in the season as it did last year.

  7. Mike H.

    March 30, 2008 at 9:34 pm

    It’s not the pessimism that I find interesting (and definitely not asinine). It’s the variance between fans and pundits alike. I picked 91-71 and it seems awfully high. The average seems or looks like 86.

    I believe they will win two more 1-run games than they did last year. Lidge is getting overlooked and Burrell is going to have a great walk year. Dude’s gotta make the change now that he’s a kept man…

  8. Grizzle

    March 30, 2008 at 10:32 pm

    Got a mistake in the Nats section–they picked up a different ex-Tampa Ray. They’ve got Elijah Dukes; not Delmon Young. He’s not nearly as good, but much crazier.

  9. KinersKornerman

    March 30, 2008 at 11:09 pm

    Hey, right now, the Nats are in first place, even with crazy Dukes.

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