Baseball Prospectus Names Top 11 Prospects – Phillies Nation

Baseball Prospectus Names Top 11 Prospects

From Baseball Prospectus:

Five-Star Prospects
1. Carlos Carrasco, RHP

Four-Star Prospects
2. Michael Taylor, RF
3. Kyle Drabek, RHP

Three-Star Prospects
4. Travis D’Arnaud, C
5. Lou Marson, C
6. Jason Donald, SS
7. Dominic Brown, OF
8. J.A. Happ, RHP
9. Zach Collier, RF
10. Jason Knapp, RHP
11. Anthony Hewitt, 3B

Just Missed: Travis Mattair, 3B; Drew Naylor, RHP; Joe Savery, LHP

Ranking Challenges: There were many. How real was Michael Taylor’s season? How do you rank so many unproven talents with so much raw ability? How to balance the two Double-A stars who have scouting reports that fall below the kind of numbers they put up?


Tim’s Thoughts: If they’re ranking Taylor second and giving him four-star status (51-100 nationally), then his 2008 must’ve been real. The two AA stars are Marson and Donald; I’d rate Marson higher than his current fifth, but I don’t mind Donald at six. So far the only bone of contention with Marson has been power, and that doesn’t need to appear yet; moreover, catchers don’t necessarily need power.

I am surprised D’Arnaud went before Marson, too. The latter has already proved himself in higher leagues; how can you deny it?



  1. Tom G

    December 23, 2008 at 10:56 am

    I call BS on Hewitt…simply a bone thrown to the Phils…folks like Bastardo or Carpenter etc. deserve more credit than Hewitt

  2. Joey

    December 23, 2008 at 11:08 am

    Lets hope Savery isnt a just miss. Weve had a few too many of those around here.

  3. Greg V.

    December 23, 2008 at 11:15 am

    I agree. Marson (while only playing one game in the bigs) had a kick ass game in the majors. You think that would have raised his stock some. Bastardo and Carpenter always seem like they are under the radar. They throw good stuff.

  4. Eb

    December 23, 2008 at 12:05 pm

    Can someone post Taylor stats from this pass year? also how old is he?

    THe guy I really like on this list is Jason Knapp, hopefully he will get more starts this year and really put the organization on notice.

  5. bob

    December 23, 2008 at 12:06 pm

    The rankings are usually acurate thought so they know can something that they dont like marson but i think he will be a great catcher thought.

  6. Pete

    December 23, 2008 at 12:27 pm

    this site put together a chart of the last three years of BP rankings. You can really see the progression of the system when they are together. also, the guy says that we have the 4th best system of the 11 BP has done so far…

  7. Chuck P

    December 23, 2008 at 12:54 pm

    Marson and Donald got a lot of press by making the Olympic team… I have seen D’Arnaud ranked higher by several Minor League scouting sites. Taylor is a boss… an impressive specimen.

    Kevin Goldstein: …Scouts talk a lot about “the Stanford swing” which is single-place and designed for contact and not a one-size-fits-all solution. Taylor is now away from that and good things are happening for him. As far as how a 6-6, 250 guy has that kind of athleticism — you just need to see him. He’s not some massive hulking guy one-dimensional stiff, he’s ripped like a football player.

  8. Don M

    December 23, 2008 at 1:13 pm

    I never thought Donald projected anywhere in the majors except a capable SS or 2b… which is why I was arguing with people over the Phillies trading Rollins because we have “JASON DONALD” as though he’s the world’s greatest prospect.

    I hope that they paly him a 3b either to help him help the Phillies.. or they let him keep playing middle-infield so that his trade value will bring us better returns.

    Marson is a puzzle to me.. I’ve never seen the guy play, but the fact that last year Jason Jaramillo was ranked ahead of him, and now multiple sources have Travis D’Arnuad ranking ahead of him, is either a great stock of catchers for us.. or Marson just doesn’t project as great as we’d like him to

    I think the OF prospects are interesting, I’ve been hearing great things about Taylor for 2 years now, and Dominic Brown is supposed to be pretty good too (But then so was Marlon Byrd, Michael Bourn, Greg Golson, etc)

    I can’t wait to see this year sort itself out in the minors, and I love that Phillies fans are all starting to follow our prospects a little bit more.. minor league baseball is a great time

  9. Griffin

    December 23, 2008 at 1:15 pm

    There is an audio interview with Goldstein for BP subscribers on the site. He mentions that the Phillies’s system is “very intriguing”.

    There are so many high risk/reward guys (Taylor, Brown, Hewitt, Collier, Knapp) in the system. They also list a best case/worse case for each player.

    The best case for Drabek? “a right-handed Scott Kazmir”.

    He mentions that Carrasco is “a #3 and possibly more.”

    He also says that D’Arnaud is a vastly superior defensive catcher to Marson, thus the higher ranking.

  10. Don M

    December 23, 2008 at 1:29 pm

    Where does Ruiz rank in scouts’ eyes?? He hit .300 in the minors, which is why I’m not super impressed with Donald or Marson doing the same, but is also the reason I know Ruiz can hit better than he did this year.. .260-270 shouldn’t be out of his reach.

    I think he’s a very good defensive cather too, he doesn’t set up as BIG as Coste, but I think he’s quicker behind the plate, and is excellent at blocking balls in the dirt.. That high-risk, high-reward can net you a team full of young superstars that you would have under contract for 6 years… or nothing..

    I wish they gave realistic projections as to when these guys should peak, when they should play full time in the majors, etc.

    Carrasco has always been “top of the rotation” potential from the first time I read about him.. Drabek was the best high school pitcher in the country the year he was drafted.. has it in bloodlines, lets see how he responds to Tommy John. His fastball and curveball were said to be MLB-ready.. Im guessing they are working on his change, and maybe a sinker?

  11. Griffin

    December 23, 2008 at 1:36 pm

    Don M, on the website give an estimated timetable of when each prospect will reach the majors.
    They list the best case for Carrasco as a “#3, possibly more” and the worst case as a “one of those back-of-the-rotation guys.

    Also, Jason Donald “He plays three infield positions, but does not profile well as an everyday player on the left side; he lacks range at shortstop and the arm or power profile for the hot corner” Translation: he’s a 2B and we already have the best one of those. Donald is trade bait.

  12. Eb

    December 23, 2008 at 1:47 pm

    Don M…I read he is working on a change, and it well known he enjoys flashing a Knuckle Ball.

    Who was the last pitcher to have a MLB ready 93-95MPH fastball then throw a knuckler.

  13. Robbi P

    December 23, 2008 at 1:53 pm

    Eb, do you have a site stating that or is this hearsay? I think it would be awesome but knuckleballs are not taught to good fastball pitchers

  14. Don M

    December 23, 2008 at 2:02 pm

    I know Donald put up a whole bunch of errors last year.. but I didn’t know if they were throwing or fielding. I figured his arm isn’t that great, because with Rollins locked-up, and no 3b prospect once we shipped Costanzo… they would have moved Donald there sooner if they thought he could play there.

    I’ve been saying Utley to 1b, and trade Howard.. but not for 2-3 years, before he becomes a Free Agent.

  15. Eb

    December 23, 2008 at 2:06 pm

    Robbi…I read it when he was drafted, I am at work now but i can find it later tonight and post the article.

    They say he is a bit of a head case and I can see him throwing it to show off and Maybe just so happens he can throw it well

  16. Griffin

    December 23, 2008 at 2:42 pm

    The interesting thing about the article is that if one out of Taylor/Brown, Hewitt/Collier and Marson/D’Aranaud actually pan out, the Phillies will be in good hands. The odds of that happening though aren’t great. There is definite upside in the system, but like BP says “there are a lot of lottery tickets”.

  17. Chuck P

    December 23, 2008 at 2:44 pm

    Knapp is only 18 years old and a local product… I kind of wrote him off because of that (I’m leery anytime we sign a local prospect) but at second glance, he’s 6’5″ 225lbs and he has been clocked at 97-98.

  18. Jason B

    December 23, 2008 at 3:48 pm

    Is Carrasco ready for the bigs? And if not, will he be by next year?

  19. NJ

    December 23, 2008 at 3:52 pm

    Carrasco’s still 21, we have to curtail our excitement since so few pitchers make the show and go on to have good careers when their brought up at that age. The thing I think of was Lincecum was 23 when he first was brought up and Carrasco’s younger than Tommy Hanson who the Braves are not going to rush because the know it’s more important to get him up when he’s on a path to reach his ceiling rather than getting him up as early as possible ala Matt Cain.

  20. Geoff

    December 23, 2008 at 4:15 pm

    Matt Cain definitely came up too early. Carrasco looks ready though. I think that hell be the first man up no matter what though, hell be 22 when the season starts….i mean, JA Happ is going to make this roster, and unless someone gets hurt or falls off we can wait with carrasco until they decide that its time for him to come and replace myers, assuming they dont resign myers.

    if myers did resign, hed probably have to leave a lot of money on the table…

  21. Don M

    December 23, 2008 at 4:38 pm

    Just say that one of the starters isn’t quite ready to start the year…. that is why you have Kyle Kendrick, Chan Ho Park…. etc.. there would be absolutely no point in bringing up Carrasco unless you plan to leave him up here

  22. Joe Durbin

    December 23, 2008 at 5:00 pm

    I do not think any player who has spent some time in the majors like Happ this year can be considered a prospect.
    I might be wrong.

  23. Don M

    December 23, 2008 at 5:35 pm

    Well until you reach whatever amount of games or innings.. however they determine that, you are still a rookie.. anyone that is considered a rookie should also be considered a prospect. .. and within the word prospect, is “rospec” and , well I lost my train of thought now

  24. Eb

    December 23, 2008 at 6:07 pm

    Texiera is Yankee now

  25. Joe Durbin

    December 23, 2008 at 7:34 pm

    When Chad was with the Royals his rookie year, he must have had enough innings then, because I used to mention prospect and he would repeat Dad I am not a prospect now.
    My mistake.

  26. Don M

    December 23, 2008 at 7:44 pm

    I don’t know if its “innings,” “games,” “days on the roster,” or what it is exactly…

    But if Happ comes out and wins 18 games next year… he’d win Rookie of the Year..

    Don M-stradomous

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    January 20, 2009 at 11:35 pm

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