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Counter Offer For Lowe? Sit On It

The Mets have reportedly offered Derek Lowe a three-year, $36 million contract.

Lowe and agent Scott Boras seem to want something closer to a five-year, $70 million deal for the right-handed starter. It was reported that the Phillies made an offer to Lowe during the Winter Meetings, but that offer was questioned later, and a Phillies official denied it (at least, an official denied a three-year offer).

It’s obvious Lowe won’t get the five years he seeks. But he’ll get better offers than the one the Mets threw up there. So should the Phillies throw their chips onto the table? I don’t think so. It’s pretty evident the Phils don’t want to take on Lowe’s demands anymore, especially with a slew of arbitration-eligible players slobbering over their 2009 paychecks. They’re fooling nobody at this point.

The Mets are poised to sign Lowe, maybe not for three years and $36 million, but for something agreeable for both sides. It’s very likely the Phils will be staring at this rotation in 2009: Johan Santana/Derek Lowe/John Maine/Mike Pelfrey/Jon Niese. Is that so bad? The Phils defeated Lowe twice in a week back in October. They also handled Pelfrey for a 4.24 ERA. Maine has fared well against the Phillies during his career, but he’s still hittable.

Basically, the Phillies don’t have the required cash to sign Lowe. Not after Cole Hamels and Ryan Howard and Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth receive raises. Not after Raul Ibanez signed. The Mets, meanwhile, are willing to spend the money to seize Lowe. It raises the eternal question: Should the Phils break the bank? Should any team break the bank?

Recent world champions demonstrate that spending a generous amount of money on player payroll helps the cause. Last year’s Phillies broke the $100 million mark and finished with the gold ring. Before that, the big-spending Red Sox took home the crown. And before that, the Cardinals — a somewhat frugal, but always ready spender — found triumph. The list goes on. Yes, you almost have to spend some money to win the title. But you also have to be wise.

Loading up on free agents during the offseason isn’t always the satisfying idea. Sure it’s tempting to grab all the foods at the buffet line immediately, but when your plate is half finished and your stomach is bloated, you know you made a mistake. Are the Yankees guaranteed a championship with CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and AJ Burnett on board? Absolutely not. Nobody thought the Phillies could win a title with the soft additions of Geoff Jenkins, Pedro Feliz, Chad Durbin and Brad Lidge. But once he sorted out the details and discovered the holes, Pat Gillick found his plugs: left-handed specialist Scott Eyre, big-hitting bench player Matt Stairs, stopgap starter Joe Blanton. Hell, he found great plugs in his own system: All-world athlete Jayson Werth and resurgent starter Brett Myers, for two.

The Phillies won because they constructed a complete team by the end of 2008. Right now, they have a somewhat incomplete troupe, with small potential weaknesses in the rotation, the early part of the bullpen and the bench. Nothing to panic about. And nothing worth the trouble of a damaging contract like Derek Lowe’s. Let the Mets worry about that one — let them gamble with an albatross by June 2010. There’s no reason the Phils need to play coy: They’re fooling nobody.

100 Comments

100 Comments

  1. fred

    December 31, 2008 at 9:08 am

    Can we please stop just quoting statistics players put up against only the Phillies ? The season is 162 games long, not just 12 games against the Mets. We could jack Lowe up 3 times and he could still add 4-6 wins to the Mets total by beating the likes of Washington and Florida, not to mention Pittsburgh etc. Who won the season series between us and the Mets last year ? They did, but we performed better against everyone else and hence won a title. Just cos we got to Lowe in October dosn’t make him a bad pitcher. It’s ridiculous that we’re prepared to spend money on Ibanez but not Lowe, especially with all the revenue generated last year by winning the WS, setting a record high in attendence and all the additional gate receipts/merchandise sales that come with playing deep into October.

  2. Phil

    December 31, 2008 at 9:44 am

    Fred, you forgot to mention how the cost to get into the ballpark for 2009 went up by an average of $5 per ticket too. That should be enough to sign Derek Lowe…

  3. RK

    December 31, 2008 at 9:52 am

    They should do what they can within reason to get Lowe, he would be a perfect fit here.

  4. scot

    December 31, 2008 at 10:04 am

    I don’t see how Lowe would be an “albatross” in the 3rd year of his contract either. He’s not a power pitcher. He hasn’t really shown signs of wear and tear. He’s always healthy. We just signed Moyer to pitch until he’s 48.

    To not counter offer on Lowe, after all the gate receipts and with all the money this club now has is not just frustrating, it’s irresponsible.

  5. Phil

    December 31, 2008 at 10:13 am

    It just sucks we don’t have an ace/big game pitcher, right Scot? Maybe Lowe could be that for us.

  6. Rob Cowie

    December 31, 2008 at 10:42 am

    Uh hello? Cole Hamels isn’t the ace/big gamer of the Phillies?

  7. Tim Malcolm

    December 31, 2008 at 10:48 am

    Well he could be an albatross, just as any free agent signing can be an albatross. It’s always a gamble.

    The difference between the Phils and — well — everyone is the arbitration guys. These are priority one. The Phils showed they can win with their homegrown talent. Let’s take care of them first.

  8. NJ

    December 31, 2008 at 10:56 am

    The question becomes how damaging will he be to the Phils as a Met, is it worth getting into a bidding war knowing they can outbid but have greater payroll concerns than we do with the holes on their roster.

    We don’t know the real situation behind the Phillies finances, there is a large amount of money potentially coming off the books at the end of the year to think if the Phils can scrape together the money for Lowe this year the books will look ok going into next year but is it possible, not too sure.

    As I’ve said before the game Amaro seems to be playing is expecting more from the guys already on roster that had down years to beat the benefits of free agents. I don’t think we NEED Lowe like the Mets do, that said it all hinges on Brett Myers again to be consistent.

  9. Geoff

    December 31, 2008 at 11:06 am

    Um…Cole Hamels outperformed Derek Lowe in those big games….how can you possibly say, after this postseason, that Hamels is not a big game ace pitcher? I mean, really? he had the best postseason ever by a starting pitcher, more or less.

    They can afford to match the Mets offer I think, if they really wanted too. But that will lead to a trade of Myers. So youd be swapping Myers for Lowe. The Mets offer for Lowe is about right, I think. Thats the most money Id offer for Lowe. Match the offer and give him a choice to make. Other than that, if Boras goes higher, then pass. 12mm is too much as it is, but for 3 yaers its not too bad. Id offer 3/30 but that wont really help.

    Lowe is more consistent than Myers, and thats the only reason id accept that substitution in the rotation.

  10. scot

    December 31, 2008 at 11:09 am

    Rob, Phil is still upset that I was pointing out through July and August that Hamels was giving up wins for no decisions or losses against the likes of the Cardinals, Mets, and Nationals. Of course we all agree that since then he’s more than proven his worth, and is our ace and big game guy. Some people just can’t let things go.

  11. scot

    December 31, 2008 at 11:10 am

    Why does adding Lowe force a trade of Myers again?

  12. Geoff

    December 31, 2008 at 11:30 am

    because theyre not going to keep their payroll at that level if they sign lowe. i mean, come on man, this is the phillies were talking about. theyd maybe sign lowe for 15mm for 3 years, but then theyd turn around and move myers’ 12mm. the payroll is already way up with arbitration, ibanez, moyer. im just quick guessing but it seems to be at about 115-120 BEFORE arb raises. tack on another 10-15 to be safe for arb raises (hamels, blanton, madson, werth, shane will all get substantial raises): 125-135

    adding derek lowe at 15mm per year: 140-150mm is your payroll EXCLUDING a right-handed bench bat and another reliver which they kind of need. do you REALLY think the phillies would have a payroll that high? theyd need to shed myers’ contract to get it down to a 128-138mm type of range. give or take 5mm either direction, thats what their payroll is. hamels will be making 7mm, blanton 7mm. howard up to 14mm, etc.

    their payroll will explode this offseason just by arb alone.

  13. Chuck P

    December 31, 2008 at 11:44 am

    Lowe/Bor-ass will not take 3/12… no way, no how… one more year and more money won’t even get it done done. This is Bor-ass baiting the market. At that price, any team would be silly not to take a look. But once they’re in the Lowe-bonanza, they realize that 3/12 is a far cry from what it’s really going to take.

    Bad contracts can really hurt this team… we’re a team that will thrive on a mix of homegrown talent (going year to year as long as possible… going to arb might eventually cost more money per year but it’s less risky) and consistent veterans with reasonable salary demands. We can’t get caught up in that stuff because one bad contract can set us back more than a few years. I would agree that if you add Lowe, you probably need to subtract Myers.

  14. NJ

    December 31, 2008 at 12:09 pm

    I don’t see the Phils being able to add Lowe and subtract Myers, barring the Phils collapsing Myers will finish out the year a Phil because no-ones giving value for a $12m ‘head-case’ when you have to move him. If Lowe is added (and near 3/36 might be the number since Boras’s bargaining chips are all but done) then Happ is lost in the numbers game and our only real tradable piece in the rotation to cut payroll is the relitavely inexpensive Blanton.

    To be honest I and most of us here probably don’t see a realistic bid going in for Lowe at this point, the rosters pretty much set for the year and it’s a good enough one to stay in contention if the guys perform.

  15. Don M

    December 31, 2008 at 12:13 pm

    We should throw 3 years/ $39 at Lowe… Make the Mets counter that, so if they do sign him its for $2-3 M more per year than they want to… which doesn’t sound like much, but when you’ve got guys like Billy Wagner and Luis Castillo eating salary, that $2-3 M could be used for middle relievers, they exact kind of pitching they desperatly need… and still don’t have!

  16. Geoff

    December 31, 2008 at 12:21 pm

    Yeah you know the mets will get desperate and break for 3/45 if we do that…the mets bullpen is still sad.

    closer: K-Rod
    setup: Putz
    middle/long: garabge

    heilman, schowenweis, smith are all gone, but they havent even really replaced them at all yet! there are vacant gaping holes in there. they have NO middle relief. duaner sanchez is horrible.

    I mean, if Lowe accepts the phillies coutner-proposal for some reason, then theyd compensate with dumping myers’ salary. other than lowe, i dont think any other starters are in the mix for them. they could still use another decent releiver.

  17. Mike T.

    December 31, 2008 at 12:24 pm

    do they even have any lefty relievers other than pedro feliciano? throw something up, make the mets waste more money. their pen is still trash, who cares if they add lowe.

  18. Geoff

    December 31, 2008 at 12:33 pm

    I had to look: The mets current bullpen is

    K-Rod (CL)
    Putz (SU)
    D. Sanchez
    P. Feliciano
    Sean Green (from SEA)
    Brian Stokes
    C. Muniz

    that is a HORRIBLE bullpen. sanchez and feliciano cant get anybody out when the season is on the line. they have NO middle relief. look at that SLOP, GARBAGE bullpen. the mets think they have to sign derek lowe, but they should be looking at people like russ springer, juan cruz, etc to bolster the bullpen.

    you knwo what? make another offer for lowe…make the mets sweat it out. if he signs, he signs. if he goes to the mets…good.

  19. metsblow4show

    December 31, 2008 at 12:38 pm

    Hey Don, I agree with you 100%. I wouldn’t go any higher then that though. As for Myers, he is a free agent after this year and I don’t think the Phils brass really want the ” head case ” back, so I would let him go out there and pitch like he is pitching for his big payday. Then shop him before the deadline and see what you can get. The worst case scenario is they keep him for the season, let him file for free agency, offer him arbitration, and pick up a couple of draft picks to make up for the picks we lost signing Ibanez, when he signs elsewhere. Carasco can fill his spot in 2010.

  20. Don M

    December 31, 2008 at 12:38 pm

    Unrelated.. but I’m in a keeper league… should I hang on to Jacoby Ellsbury, or Camron Maybin ???

    Is Maybin really the starting CF for the Marlins this year, as listed on the depth chart on their website?

    thanks for your input guys

  21. Don M

    December 31, 2008 at 12:40 pm

    Counting on Carrasco as the #2 next year is asking a lot..

  22. phill these nutz

    December 31, 2008 at 12:45 pm

    you guys are getting caught up in one bad half of awful relief. you guys are forgetting what sanchez and feliciano were doing to you guys before they struggled. They were both MONEY, and will be Money this year along with Putz and Krod, and all the other guys we’ll have….Keep talking, you guys have been talking a lot this offseason. you guys have a lot of living up to do this year, lets see if you guys will be able to hold it down….I really doubt it…

  23. metsblow4show

    December 31, 2008 at 12:45 pm

    I wasn’t talking about the #2 spot, just a spot in the rotation.

  24. phill these nutz

    December 31, 2008 at 12:47 pm

    Elisbury has a better lineup behind him. But Maybin is nasty too, i would go with Elisbury

  25. Brooks

    December 31, 2008 at 12:48 pm

    Don, I like your idea of upping the price by a few mil. Bor-ass (nice name) will turn it down of course but this will up the anti for the Muts who will bite.
    The more they put out, the harder they fall, the bigger the dissappointment and the harder we all laugh!
    Go for it Muts!

  26. metsblow4show

    December 31, 2008 at 12:49 pm

    Hey Phil, all I know is that come September you and your Muts will be choking on your own “nutz” again.

  27. psujoe

    December 31, 2008 at 12:50 pm

    At this point the Phillies salary is almost dead even with last years, but obviously we still have arbitration increases coming. We’re saving 6 million in LF(Ibanez only gets 6.5 +2 mil bonus this year), 2.5 million on Park vs Gordon, another 1.25 on stairs, Helms money and some other small savings. No way the Phillies arbitration increases will be 40 million so we’re probably talking a salary increase so far this year around 20-25 million. Lowe is very affordable at 13-14 per for 3 years, IMO.

  28. joshua

    December 31, 2008 at 12:51 pm

    not to sound as arrogant as the previous poster,
    but he’s right felicano and sanchez were good the first half of the season, they got bad when they were forced into situations they shouldn’t have to do…now with putz and Krod, they won’t need to be in those situations…unless someone gets injured.

    also, with relief pitchers they fluctuate, look at lidge in 07 compared to 08.

  29. Mike T.

    December 31, 2008 at 12:51 pm

    don,

    not sure how your point system is set up, but it seems to me that maybin has the potential to be a better fantasy player. BUT, i’m sure maybin will split time with almezaga early on, and ellsbury should be the full time cf in boston.

  30. Don M

    December 31, 2008 at 12:52 pm

    You just up to to whatever price you’d be comfortable paying.. if we get Lowe for $13 M for 3 years… thats a decent deal… still overpaying him a little, but he’s a very good pitcher… if someone wants to pay him more, for a longer amount of time, that’s their problem

  31. Brooks

    December 31, 2008 at 12:53 pm

    Phill Phill – we own the right to trash the Muts… who choked at the end of the year and did not even make the playoffs for the second year in a row??
    Yeah baby, CHOKED on it –
    Dude, just bend over and take it like a (sniff) man! Your time may come, until then – bark bark bark you dawg! Cryin’ never gets you anywhere.

  32. phill these nutz

    December 31, 2008 at 12:54 pm

    yeeeeeeeeeea, okay

  33. Don M

    December 31, 2008 at 12:54 pm

    There are a lot of categories..

    H, R, HR, RBI, SB, Avg., ….total bases, OBP, or Slugging might be in there too I can’t remember

  34. phill these nutz

    December 31, 2008 at 12:55 pm

    you fags are cooooooooorny, come up with a new name then muts, that shit is older then your franchise’s overall losing record

  35. Don M

    December 31, 2008 at 12:56 pm

    I’m also between Joakim Soria and Ricky Nolasco… Soria is without a doubt the best pitcher that nobody has ever heard of.. and he’s destined to be a Yankee in a few years

  36. joshua

    December 31, 2008 at 12:57 pm

    brooks, they choked, ok, big deal…how about the phils not making the playoffs from the years 94-07? all those years, you didn’t choke, you were just complete garbage those years. at least the mets made the playoffs a few times in that time frame…but keep talking about not making the playoffs for two years, big deal. In 09 everyones records are 0-0 and what you did last season doesn’t matter.

  37. phill these nutz

    December 31, 2008 at 12:58 pm

    well, Elisbury is gonna get you H, R, HR and RBI’s not much, but he’s defintily gonna get your your SBs and AVG and OBP….though i like Maybins make up, i think him and Hanley and Uggs will be their only bat, and we dont know where he’s going to hit in that lineup yet. But all in all Maybin has a HUGE upside. But i will still keep Elisbury

  38. phill these nutz

    December 31, 2008 at 12:59 pm

    dude, i LOVE soria, i even think he’s better then KRod and im a Met fan…i had him in both my leagues last year, and he was straight money, DO NOT GET RID OF HIM….

  39. Geoff

    December 31, 2008 at 12:59 pm

    Soria is good. id take him over nolasco. id take ellsbury over maybin

  40. Don M

    December 31, 2008 at 1:00 pm

    Corny.. good.

    I’ve said before… What the HELL is a PHILLIE…. but also.. what the hell is a METROPOLITAN…

    talk about terrible baseball team names… Mutts just has a nice ring to it

  41. dan

    December 31, 2008 at 1:00 pm

    phill, i know i’m going to be asking this question to you and other mets fans a lot this season, but does choking three years in a row give you the right to talk or make hefty predictions about your team? no. does winning a world championship give us the right? yes. here lies the difference between us and you.

  42. dan

    December 31, 2008 at 1:03 pm

    all philly team names suck besides possibly the eagles.

    phllie- a baby horse or something
    flyer- bird?
    76er- someone from a year?
    soul- intangible
    kixx- two x’s in a row is never good

  43. phill these nutz

    December 31, 2008 at 1:04 pm

    thats fine dan…you know what, you guys won…congrats, talk away….im feeling to good to argue.

  44. Don M

    December 31, 2008 at 1:05 pm

    But you can find closers on the scrap-heap… two years ago when I knew the Indians would be good, I selected Borowski late in the draft… he saved like 42 or 46..

    I think Maybin is going to be a STAR in this league… but maybe not for 2-3 years

    Ellsbury I think might just get hyped so much because its Boston.. and because he came to play in the 2007 postseason..

  45. phill these nutz

    December 31, 2008 at 1:07 pm

    Elz got busy last year too, he started to decline in the end though. Dude, Closers rulled my league last year. i took alot of my closers late

  46. Don M

    December 31, 2008 at 1:10 pm

    Also though, I thought the Reds would be really good and took Francisco Cordero… and he did ok, Saves-wise.. but wasn’t dominant at all

    Jenks, Soria, Cordero was solid though.

    I’m taking Carlos Ruiz this year, because one of his 3 HR might come in a crucial week… but seriously, his average will be .270 ish this season

  47. Chase Mutley

    December 31, 2008 at 1:11 pm

    Joshua, you know very well that what we did this year will still matter in ’09. I don’t care if the Phillies ranked dead last in MLB between 1983 and 2008, we’re World Champions. Something that the Mets haven’t done in 22 years yet your team and your fan base have the arrogance of world beaters. New York might be your first name but your last name certainly isn’t “Yankees.”

    When K-Rod blows 8 saves, when David Wright comes up short, when Ryan Church spends 80 days on the DL, when Carlos Delgado doesn’t show up until July, and when you realize that you don’t have a left fielder, second baseman or a single player on your bench who can hit and once it sinks in the your current team is responsible for the most historic collapse in the history of baseball, maybe then you’ll have some humility.

  48. phill these nutz

    December 31, 2008 at 1:14 pm

    i picked geovani soto as my last picked last year…what a pick

  49. Don M

    December 31, 2008 at 1:15 pm

    That Endy Chavaz sure is fast though… oh wait, what…. damn, the Mariners.. ouch

  50. Don M

    December 31, 2008 at 1:17 pm

    Soto was like the 6th catcher taken in my league laast year

  51. phill these nutz

    December 31, 2008 at 1:18 pm

    he’ll be the number two this year

  52. Don M

    December 31, 2008 at 1:24 pm

    For the sake of arguement, lets say that Reyes is better than Rollins. That means that Beltran, Wright and Reyes are the 3 position players on the Mets that are better than the Phillies. 5-3 Phillies

    Rotation: Sanatana is better than Hamels.. but for how much longer?
    Pelfrey is more consistant than Myers, but Myers has more “stuff”..
    Maine is a glorified Joe Blanton.. Moyer is above average, gives you a great chance to win ballgames. If the Mets add Lowe, you definitely give them an advantage.. but until the Phillies name a 5th starter none of this matters.. if its Happ or Carrasco thats good news for us.

    Bullpen: Feliciano 4.05 ERA, Sanchez 4.32 ERA, the rest is slop too

    Krod is very good… Lidge is better.
    Putz is very good… Madson was UNTOUCHABLE down the stretch last year.

    Nothing says that either team is hands down better then the other.. Phillies fans, we should all feel comfortable that this team has a great chance to make another run this year!

  53. Don M

    December 31, 2008 at 1:27 pm

    There are a few good ones out there, Mauer, McCann, Russel Martin (who I used to like until I know he cried that much), Soto, Posada, Pierzynski, Bengie Molina, Lou Marson

  54. Chuck P

    December 31, 2008 at 1:31 pm

    Maybin and whatever you need more… Ellsbury is a good hitter for average with great speed. He’ll score a ton of runs and steal bases but Maybin has 20-25 HR potential almost the same speed tangibles. I would take a chance with Maybin; he’ll strike out more and he’s probably not as good as his late 2008 campaign would suggest but if he gains some confidence, watch out. Closers are esay to find but you need to have one guy that is consistent heading into the season… if you don’t have that, go with Soria.

    I’m buying a new HD TV tonight so I’m feeling festive (therefore, I won’t prod any of those Muts fans further)… Happy New Years everyone.

  55. phill these nutz

    December 31, 2008 at 1:40 pm

    i had Molina last year, he actually had a nice year, especially with a horible lineup. Good Luck with your new TV man, i know the feeling….tune in to MLB Network…; ) starts tomorrow 6pm, Happy New Year to you guys, even though i cant stand philly fans, i can appreciate a good rivalry, and i appreciate passionate fans.

  56. Don M

    December 31, 2008 at 1:55 pm

    is MLB Network going to be a pay-per-month kinda deal like NFL Network?? not for nothing, but NFL Network isn’t worth $60 a year… thats 3 lap dances!

  57. zach

    December 31, 2008 at 1:56 pm

    ya ummm i really dont like lowe because of his age, and he wont be that dominant pitcher everyone is thinking of. His attitude doesnt fit welll with this team, and i would rather go and trade for jake peavy!!!

  58. Geoff

    December 31, 2008 at 1:58 pm

    NFLN is totally useless. Had it for like a year and it was the biggest waste.

    So you want jake peavy huh? shane victorino, carlos carrasco, jason donald, JA Happ. IF you say no, theyll just hang up the phone….its DEFINITELY not worth it.

  59. phill these nutz

    December 31, 2008 at 2:04 pm

    you guys have to pay for NFL network?? Directv carries it for free. MLB Network should be a free chanel, depending on your provider….if you go to MLB.COM and go to the MLB Network page, you can find out if your provider carries by entering your zip code

  60. Don M

    December 31, 2008 at 2:14 pm

    If you have DirecTV you can’t get 100+ of the Phillies, or lots of Flyers, and who-cares76ers games because they are on Comcast Sports Net in Phila

    So if you want to watch that stuff in Philly, you have to have COMCAST.. for their sports channel… its a monopoly and so they’ve been in court with Verizon and the NFL Network, and the Big Ten Network, etc.

  61. psujoe

    December 31, 2008 at 2:24 pm

    The NFL Network comes with comcast for $5. That alone wouldn’t be worth it, but you also get the Big Ten Network and 5 other Fox sports channels. I watched a lot of the PA HS football playoffs.

  62. Andrew

    December 31, 2008 at 2:26 pm

    If the Mets sign Lowe than I am getting nervous. We didn’t beat him impressively in the playoffs. The first game allowed us to beat him because of a Furcal error that swung momentum our way, and then Utley and Pat the Bat had two big hits that barely pushed us over the top.
    We wouldn’t have beat Lowe in game four either if the Dodgers offense had actually shown up.
    Lowe makes me nervous, he can defuse our hitting.

  63. Geoff

    December 31, 2008 at 2:29 pm

    yeah but its just like the gas company and the electric company. theyre basically government subsidized, localized monopolies. they can charge whatever they want and you have to pay it if you want the service. the gas company has double charged for decades. and, they ALL have a double set of books, one being the comprehensive annual financial report, which will tell you where the company invests its loot, i mean, surplus. most of it goes offshore and is out of the country in 72 hours.

    same with cities and states and other municipalities…you think the city of philadephia is out of money? wrong….they have tens of billions in surplus every single year. it jsut gets sent offshore and laundered several times before it makes its way back into the hands of executives, politicians, cops, etc.

    so, no, the city isnt broke. they just expereinced a drop in their legitimate revenue stream (taxes, even though most taxes are illegal) and theyre going to make us pay for it. they will continue to line their pockets with the laundered illegal money.

    so..baseball now

  64. Georgie

    December 31, 2008 at 2:38 pm

    Hey Chuck, nothing like a little shopping spree to cure that grumpy mood, did the same thing yesterday, works miracles! Good luck removing yourself from in front of that HD tv though, when we got our first one last year I was even watching the freakin’ PGA tour, and I HATE golf.

    Um, Don, lap dances? Aren’t you a newlywed dude?

    Now, regarding Lowe, do you guys really feel confident with our starting rotation the way it stands? And no way Lidge has a perfect season again, that’s just not even possible. The Mets have improved dramatically, and the Phils have obviously not. I’ll say it again, the Phillies did not run away with the division title the past 2 years, and eventually the Mets will learn how to swallow. If Lowe can be had for 3/36 or so, I think they should do it!

  65. Don M

    December 31, 2008 at 2:42 pm

    you shouldn’t have to pay EXTRA money to watch HS football from Hershey, PA… or to watch Indiana vs. Iowa in football on a Saturday afternoon.

    My Comcast bill is already like $110 per month, im not paying more for the NFL network, because I just dont care that much about it.. I would pay for MLB.. or if the Extra Innings package was cheaper, i’d buy that .

  66. Don M

    December 31, 2008 at 2:45 pm

    yea.. lap dances… it was a joke

    Golf in HD in unreal… I can’t wait to watch The Masters this year!

  67. Geoff

    December 31, 2008 at 2:45 pm

    id get the mlb/nhl package if it wasnt a ripoff. my gas bill is liek 250 a month and were all at work all day and its turned off. we get a special discount on comcast but its still like 100 bucks. mlbnet better be free…

  68. psujoe

    December 31, 2008 at 2:46 pm

    Don, you’er preachin gto the choir. I view comcast as the evil empire, but I’m a huge Flyers fan so I’m screwed without them. I also like comcast sportsnet. Last I heard though is Fios has comcast sportsnet in South Jersey. Unfortunately I think my neighborhood is the last to get it.

  69. Don M

    December 31, 2008 at 2:48 pm

    In NE-philly the MLB channel is 280 … not sure what that means to my bill or my a-BILL-ity to watch it yet… get it? ya get it?

  70. Don M

    December 31, 2008 at 2:52 pm

    The deal that Fios had was that Verion could give its customers Comcast Sports Net, IF… Verizon agreed not to make itself available within Philadelphia city limits..

    If it wasn’t for CSN, I wouldn’t have Comcast either.. they know that in a blue-collar town, people will pay just for their sports

  71. Geoff

    December 31, 2008 at 2:53 pm

    ill bet FIOS ends up being more expensive as soon as they let you have it in philly…

  72. psujoe

    December 31, 2008 at 3:11 pm

    Cubs signed Miles for 2/4.9. A pretty good infielder. Looks like they’l Deal Derosa to the Indians for pitching prospects that I think they’ll flip to get Peavy. The Cubs sure are loading up.

  73. Matt Kwasiborski

    December 31, 2008 at 3:37 pm

    I would still like to sign Lowe for 3 yrs at 45M. If we do that, it keeps him off of the Mets. I don’t think that if the Mets sign Lowe it makes them better (on paper) than us but if we sign him it also gives us a huge edge both pitching and psychologically over them.

    And it also gives us a pretty significant trade chip in Myers. Sure, Myers had a great 2nd half but he probably still wants to be a closer. And sure-fire closers are hard to come by these days and I am sure the Phils could get Detroit or someone else to overpay us with prospects that help us re-build our farm system.

    And I still love the thought of Manny coming here too. I know it won’t happen after the Ibanez signing but it would be nice to see him hit between Utley and Howard. Wow. He would be worth it for 2-3 years.

  74. Georgie

    December 31, 2008 at 3:43 pm

    Does anyone know how many Flyers and Phillies games will be broadcast in HD now on csn? We have DirecTV for the NFL Sunday Ticket, but I have to carry our local cable just for csn, which really sucks, btw. So between the 2, which also includes cable modem, it’s like $300/mo, but no HD on cable yet. So for an extra $80/year I could get csn in HD, but it already gripes me that you can’t just get csn on satellite, so I hate to give in.

  75. Grrrumpy Miner

    December 31, 2008 at 3:51 pm

    Its gonna come to a time within the next 3 weeks….IF Lowe isn’t signed by anybody,he’s gonna go for something rather than nothing whether its pitching for the Mets,Phillies,Marlins,Cubs,Dodgers or EVEN the Nationals or Royals.Bottom line,if Derek Lowe is all about the game,than sign somewhere already,IF he’s in it for the money,than don’t EVER show your face in CitiField,CBP,Wrigley,Or any park.Omar is doing the Wright thing in giving Lowe this offer because OTHER than the Phillies,WHO has the kind of dough and commitment for 5 Years 75 Mil for Lowe?Red Sox don’t want him and the Yankees are already spent out (If you can believe that)

  76. TheDipsy

    December 31, 2008 at 4:04 pm

    Gentle readers:

    As we all know, and as Tim has pointed out today, signing free agents is a gamble. As if everything in life ISN’T a gamble. Anybody married here? Then you know what I mean. I guess what we should really ask ourselves is how MUCH of a gamble is it to sign Derek Lowe? So lets assess risk. Well, he’s experienced AND consistent. He’s a sinkerball pitcher. He can pitch out of the pen. But what keeps the risk down is that he’s NEVER BEEN HURT. Ever. So, from an actuarial standpoint, I would say the risk premium on Lowe would be pretty low(e). So Ruben, in the words of Spike Lee, “Do the right thing” (insert Public Enemy music here).

    Lovingly,

    The Dipsy
    Chairman of the Derek Lowe in Pinstripes Foundation

  77. phillyhater

    December 31, 2008 at 4:26 pm

    why are you guys so damn obsessed with the Mets?
    Its really getting ridiculous. Especially Geoff. I hope you read this, because you are obviously scared the Mets are gonna knock you off ur high horse next year, because all you ever do is talk shyt about the Mets. You should enjoy being able to call yourselves the champs because you wont get another one for a long time.

    do you smell that in the air? I smell a little fear coming from ol Geoffy boy.

  78. Don M

    December 31, 2008 at 4:31 pm

    We’re so damn obsessed with the Mets because we are all baffled how a GM can sign THAT many bad players to bad contracts, still have his job.. and how the Mets haven’t won anything with a payroll that high

  79. Georgie

    December 31, 2008 at 4:35 pm

    Very nicely put, Dipsy, and you’re 100% correct, marriage is the biggest gamble of them all!!!!

  80. Great in '08

    December 31, 2008 at 4:41 pm

    The phillies have played above average baseball from 01-08 (look it up) went to the playoffs twice and walked away with a world F**king Championship! So yeah they sucked for 6 years there while the mets over paid for old ass all stars every year, and they are still doing the same shit! They went to the world series once….AND LOST, and have been choking on that 200 million plus payroll! The Phillies have done it the right way! Choke on that shit all you assh*le mets fans! ohh Phillthesenuts? how bout you fill your mouth with your foot

  81. ryan

    December 31, 2008 at 5:19 pm

    i wouldn’t give lowe that kind of money. he’s not worth it. however, i would make it appear as if i were going to if only to drive the asking price up and make the mets outbid themselves

  82. psujoe

    December 31, 2008 at 5:37 pm

    I wouldn’t go 3/45, but I’d go 3/39 for Lowe. Heck we’re paying Myers 12 mill why not 13 for Lowe. He’d be an 18-20 game winner as our #2. The value of a sinkerball pitcher in our park can’t be over stated.

  83. Don M

    December 31, 2008 at 6:19 pm

    Yea the Phillies definitely just need to find the value that they are comfortable spending on Lowe.. and offer THAT.. even if its more money, for less years..

    Like 2 years $27 M… Make the Mets beat $13.5 per season.. whatever you do, you have to make the Mets overspend as much as possible

  84. KB

    December 31, 2008 at 7:34 pm

    Omar has played this one pretty well so far – patiently. He knows the free agency market has some unique variables this year. And he’s made his ceiling value for Lower clear to Boras. He’ll revert to Perez or Wolf if that value is eclipsed. So, be careful what you wish for. You just might get it! 🙂

  85. KM

    December 31, 2008 at 7:54 pm

    i’d offer Lowe 4 yrs, 50 million would get this deal done, TODAY! A shade over 12 million a year is a steal for a solid number 1-2 starter. Christ, Eaton got 8 million, and they knew he’d be a 4 at best.

  86. psujoe

    December 31, 2008 at 10:03 pm

    Mets went up to 3/39 for Lowe today. I like Don’s offer as a final offer by Philly. 3/40.5 million. I think the mets go 3/42 and I’d let them have him.

  87. KB

    December 31, 2008 at 11:00 pm

    Not quite, psujoe. “4:07pm: Jack Curry of the New York Times weighs in. He can see the Mets bumping their offer to $39MM for three years, but agrees that they won’t add a fourth year (despite four-year deals given to inferior pitchers in recent times).” It’s all speculation. Only Omar, Boras, and Lowe know the truth.

  88. Bruce

    January 1, 2009 at 4:08 am

    Just a brief comment. I totally agree with Tim when he stated..”The Phils showed they can win with their homegrown talent. Let’s take care of them first.”

    To the “baseball fantasy” players here.. In the real world the Phillies front office know their limitation with the budget and won’t break the bank on a pitcher like Lowe. And for those who are fixated on trading Myers, the front office is fully confident with Myers after a strong 2nd half season (7-4 in 13 starts with two completions including a shutout for an ERA of 3.06) that was so vital to the Phillies’ success. Phillies would rather sign Myers to a new contract than to spend a fortune on someone like Lowe. Let’s keep the world champions’ rotation intact and use the some of the money saved to take care of arbitration eligible players.

  89. Geoff

    January 2, 2009 at 12:59 am

    I wonder who else will go after Lowe? I mean, Boras has priced Lowe out of interest for the time being. To be practival, the Phillies should offer like a slightly improved offer than the Mets offer. Maybe 3/39 or 2/29 with an option or something of that nature. If he signs, thats fine. Otherwise, the mets will make an offer of 3/42 or 3/45 and then the phillies will back off. thats fine with me. make the mets pay more, and if he stays here then you compensate by trading myers.

    i really dont think theyre going to keep myers. they reached out to werth and madson, and theyre clearly going to reach out to hamels and victorino because it would be madness to let that go on for much longer.

    ill bet they sign blanton midway through the season to an extension if hes pitching well, at a hometown discount. as for myers, the phils are very good with locking people up early that they REALLY want to keep. so being as there has been NO indication about an extension for brett myers, who is in his final year, when EVERY other pending free agent pitcher going into his contract year is the subject of tons of rumors WITH substance about an extension. its unusual that theres nothing stirring about him. thats probably because of his up and down season, but still.

  90. MG

    January 2, 2009 at 4:30 am

    “And nothing worth the trouble of a damaging contract like Derek Lowe’s. Let the Mets worry about that one — let them gamble with an albatross by June 2010.”

    I laughed out loud when I read this. Ibanez’s contract is much more likely to be an albatross by June 2010 than Lowe’s projected 3 yr/$36M deal. Yeah Mets have questions too but getting Lowe is an upgrade over Perez and gives the Mets a more solid rotation going into the season. One last point – would you rather have Moyer at 2 yrs/$16M or Lowe at 3 yr/$36M. I love Moyer but Mets are much more likely to see a better return on their investment.

  91. fred

    January 2, 2009 at 6:49 am

    Geoff, how can you say Myers will be traded when there have been absoloutley NO rumors about him at all ? If the Phillies somehow did sign Lowe the rotation would look something like; Hamels, Lowe, Myers, Blanton, Moyer. Happ would go back to AAA or traded, as would Carrasco, Kendrick and Eaton. And i saw that earlier you said the Phillies payroll would exceed $150 million if they signed Lowe, and that is just not true. Last year the payroll was $98 million according to Cot’s baseball contracts, and with the money for Thome, Burrell and Gordon coming off the books and only really Ibanez and Moyer signing for any dough you’re looking at pretty much an equal payroll, probably even less, before arbitration. After the players go to arb i’d guess at about an increas in $10 million, so $108 million plus $14 million for Lowe would equal $122 million. With the Philly market and fan base they should easily be able to afford that, what with the ticket hikes and all. The rotation would be sick with Lowe in it, deep from 1-5, although I have doubts Moyer will remain effective, the dude is 46 after all.

  92. Don M

    January 2, 2009 at 12:07 pm

    I saw in the paper last week that just based on arbitration increases alone, the payroll next year was projected to $125 Million. Howard is going to get a raise to about $15… Hamels, Victorino, Werth, made a combined like $2 M last season, they are all worth MUCH more than that.

    If Lowe gets signed to a 3/$36 M.. .that is a pretty fair deal, but the Phillies have been pretty smart about bringin players in over the years, and which guys to pass on..

    And in their defense, Ibanez was signed because they NEEDED a LF, Lowe would only be signed because people WANT to improve the rotation

    you guys remember “NEEDS” vs. “WANTS” right? We learned about that in grade school

  93. Chuck P

    January 2, 2009 at 12:39 pm

    Don, I’m not disagreeing with your sentiment but I wanted to point out that Ruben did say our most dire need was starting pitching… if you feel like Park/Moyer is enough, then we don’t need Lowe.

    I bought a 42″ Vizio… glorious 1080 HD. I have spent many hours watching and I plan to continue that trend for the foreseeable future. I was up until almost 2 am watching Dark Knight (I still think that Nicholsen was the best Joker although Ledger did a great job with the changes in his tone of voice). Anyway, I wanted to talk about this COMCAST/DIRECTV issue.

    I have DTV and it sucks that you cannot get CSN via DTV. I don’t mind because I am one of the people that enjoys listening on the radio. Of course, now that I have this lovely HDTV, I am sure that will change. Here’s what I am going to do (please tell me if I’m wrong)… you can watch Phillies games over the internet by purchasing a MLBTV plan. They’re not that pricey ($50 per year), plus it allows you to watch all other MLB games over the internet. Don’t want to watch on my little computer monitor, right? Well, all of these new TV’s have USB jacks so you can view your computer screen via your television. Effectively, watching Phillies games via DTV for an extra $4 per month.

  94. Don M

    January 2, 2009 at 1:05 pm

    They didn’t get Park to be a starter.. and resigning Moyer, a free agent, does count for something.

    With Hamels, Myers, Moyer, Blanton, Happ/Carrasco/Kendrick.. there isn’t a NEED for Lowe.. Would he improve our rotation, yea.. but not for the price and years he will likely get

    I think for the Phillies home games over the computer, you need to setup your account so that you don’t live in the Philadelphia area…. as far as they know..
    If you live in the Phila area, and they know that, they can impose blackout-restrictions on you, but if you say that your computer is in Washington D.C. … you could watch “out of market games” which would include the Phillies

    I’m not sure though, but that was how I understood it from hearing others talk about it

  95. Chuck P

    January 2, 2009 at 3:48 pm

    I’m with you… I don’t think that we need Lowe but I’m not sure if our rotation will hold up. I’m not sure if we approached this offseason like starting pitching was our number one concern. We are heading into this season with a few questions… what will Myers be in 2009? Who will emerge as our 5th starter (I don’t think Carrasco will be in our rotation opening day and I’m not sure if Happ or Kendrick will be capable of being a SP every 5 days for 180 days)? Do we have enough depth to last 162 games? I believe that they think Park will be able to start for us. They knew he was a gamble but if he doesn’t pan out, they just use him as a long-innings reliever… I would approach it with the mindset that he’s not going to be able to start for us but I think they are going in thinking that he’ll be our #5 starter.

    You are correct, Don. My uncle from Colorado will have an MLB.com subscription.

  96. Memphis

    January 2, 2009 at 10:35 pm

    If Rube’s priority is pitching, then Lowe becomes more of a need than a want. At some point, Lowe’s declining price has to become attractive to the Phils. For some of us, Lowe isn’t attractive at any price. That’s just silly. He was a Top 10 starting pitcher in the NL last year. Statheads love this guy. He’d be terrific in front of the Phils infield. At 3/39, we’re talking Dempster money. We’re talking slightly more than Kyle Lohse’s 4/40 extension. This would be a bargain for someone with Lowe’s track record and durability. He’s good for 200 IP with an ERA at 3.3-3.8.

    Salary-wise, the ’09 payroll is pretty much only greater than ’08 because of arbitration increases (Ibanez is similar to Burrell, actually less, Moyer comes back at a similar price, no significant contracts go off the books, Park’s number is small). The Phils have made no deal that makes a deal for Lowe untenable from a salary perspective. A 3-year contract to Lowe would be less risky than 2 years for Moyer and 3 for Ibanez. This is well within our risk tolerance.

    Competition-wise, we are looking at 85-90 wins without Lowe. Lowe projects to improve any team he joins by 4 wins (per Fangraphs, which actually puts Lowe’s worth at 3/49). Take those 4 wins and give them to the Mets, not the Phils, and that could be the difference in who wins the division.
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pitching-the-2009-mets
    (Written by a Phils fan, no less.)

    As Jayson Stark just posted, teams winning the WS are not guaranteed to get back to the playoffs.
    http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3805949&name=stark_jayson

    The Phils have to get better just to get back to the playoffs, because the Mets and the Braves will be better — so Rube, is pitching really the priority? If so, how do we let Lowe go to the Mets for cheap?

  97. Memphis

    January 2, 2009 at 10:48 pm

    Nice analysis from Fangraphs.com — by a Phillies fan no less — showing the Mets with a slight edge, thanks to the anticipated Lowe signing.
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/here-we-go-again-phillies-mets

    Why worry about Year 3 of Lowe, when we obviously don’t have a problem with Year 2 of Moyer or Year 3 of Ibanez? A few wins will likely be the difference again in 2009, and you have to believe we’re better off with Lowe than against him.

  98. fred

    January 3, 2009 at 9:00 am

    Spot on Memphis. If your gonna give a 46 year old a 2 year deal and a 37 year old a 3 year deal then why not give Lowe, a superior player to both, a 3 year deal. I’d much rather have not signed Ibanez and signed Lowe instead, give John Mayberry Jr. a shot in the OF, amongst others. A platoon with Jenkins would’ve been fine.

  99. The Dipsy

    January 3, 2009 at 11:25 am

    Hey, ya now what fellas, I have a problem with y’all that say our rotation, as presently constituted is “good enough”. Its not. For a team trying to go to the Series. For one, Park will NOT start. Ever. Unless there’s an injury. Here is my forecast for the staff:

    For Cole Hamels, who has only been totally healthy for ONE season, major leagues AND minor leagues, and who only pitched about 4 2/3 innings his whole college career, I’ll give him this:

    15- 8, 3.17.

    The rest:

    Brett Myers 13-12, 4.14
    Joe Blanton 15-12, 4.14
    jamie Moyer 13-12, 4.45

    I don’t know who the fifth starter is but I suspect it will be Kendrick.

    There are variables. Hamels could get hurt (he has shown to be a higher injury risk than other pithers) and Myers could implode. And if they both happen, the season’s over. Getting Lowe is a good idea because, aside from getting a good pitcher, he has demonstrated himself to be injury proof and not at all likely to suffer the bad season. Thus he also becomes a hedge against risk. I think a top three of: Lowe, Blanton, Moyer could hold down the fort for a month or two if something goes wrong.

    Lovingly,

    The Dipsy

  100. Terrence Mcmurtrey

    April 7, 2010 at 6:47 pm

    I’ve owned this faucet over one month now. It is great. It looks good with my stainless steel appliances, and the pull down spout is wonderful.

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