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2009 Projection: Carlos Carrasco

Carlos Carrasco, SP (RHP)
Age: 22

2008 (AA / AAA): 151.1 IP / 9-9 / 3.68 ERA / 58 BB / 155 K / 1 CG / 1.34 WHIP

Summary: The Phillies’ top prospect struggled through double-A for the second-consecutive season, but did fare better than in 2007, but his strikeout rates were much better the second time around. He threw 8.56 K/9 in 2008 before heading for Lehigh Valley and posting a great 11.29 K/9 rating. In triple-A he dominated, recording a 1.72 ERA. In 36.2 triple-A innings he let up 37 hits and just one home run.

Career Level: Learning (Year 4)

Green Flags: Carrasco seems poised to have strong major league numbers, considering his good strikeout rates and improving hit rates. … Scouts claim his changeup is a plus-plus pitch, not on par with Cole Hamels, but very dominate. … His performance in the Venezuelan Winter League (against a lot of AA- and AAA-brand hitters) showed he’s ready to make the jump.

Red Flags: His performance in double-A is slightly alarming, still, since he couldn’t improve on an ERA of 4.32. … At only 22, Carrasco is far ahead his prescribed level (A+/AA), so he may experience hiccups in the majors, once he reaches that level.

Prognostication: Carrasco is likely the seventh or eighth pitcher on the Phillies’ starting depth chart, so he might see some time in the July-August range, if the Phils don’t have too many problems at that level. Could he be in the rotation by September? Sure, but don’t expect it yet. I predict he’ll have his first major league start in 2009, with many another one or two to go along with it. Nothing big.

2009 Projection:
15 IP / 1-0 / 4.80 ERA / 5 BB / 10 K / 0 CG / 1.46 WHIP

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