2009 Projection: Jamie Moyer

Jamie Moyer, SP (LHP)
Age: 46

2008: 196.1 IP / 16-7 / 3.71 ERA / 62 BB / 123 K / 0 CG / 1.33 WHIP

Summary: Still, nobody knows how Jamie Moyer did it in 2008. He quietly put together one of the top pitching seasons in the major leagues at age 46. He froze hitters with his changeup. He had hitters swinging early on his fastball. He dropped in a couple other pitches for good measure. It added up to a very successful campaign. It was his best season since his 21-win campaign in 2003. He held hitters to a .264 average — best since 2003. He let up just 0.92 homers per nine innings — best since 2003. He also left 76.6 percent of runners on base — you know, best since 2003.

Career Level: Descent (Year 5)

Green Flags: Moyer allowed less than 200 hits for the first time since 2003. … He is a workhorse, starting every game in 2008 and consistently starting more than 30 games every year since 2001 (only going under 30 once since 1997). … Moyer had a fine ground ball rate at 43.9 percent, his largest in a long time.

Red Flags: Scouring Moyer’s history since 2003 shows the 2008 season seems like an anomaly. … The innings are starting to decrease. … Interestingly, the fifth inning was by far Moyer’s best (opponents hitting .127 with a .335 OPS) while the sixth and seventh were horrendous (.855 OPS in sixth; .958 OPS in seventh). That indicates he’s five and done. … His walk rates remained high in 2008 at 2.84.

Prognostication: Moyer is a trick pony at this point in his career; he’s getting by on his limited arsenal, relying on hitters’ inexperience the first (and most times second) time around. The inning splits are telling — he’s good for five innings, crafting his game in hopes that guys swing quickly and often. And my guess is against more experienced hitters (who have now seen Moyer enough), he’ll be shelled harder in 2009. Don’t expect those 2008 numbers to return; if they do, the guy is the smartest ballplayer ever. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again — I expect a shorter season for Moyer.

2009 Projection: 86.1 IP / 3-3 / 4.69 ERA / 30 BB / 43 K / 0 CG / 1.44 WHIP

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  1. Bduns

    April 2, 2009 at 7:43 pm

    I agree with a shorter season, but 86 IP? Man, that’s short. 8 million a year right?

  2. The Dipsy

    April 2, 2009 at 7:43 pm

    Sooooooooooooooo. Tim. Is it fair to deduce from your Moyer prediction that the phightins be shopping for that big arm at the trade deadline? Roy Oswalt where are you? We’ll take him! July 14, 2009: Joe Savery and Travis D’Arnaud to the “stros for Roy Oswalt. You heard it here first.

    The Dipsy

  3. Manny

    April 2, 2009 at 7:49 pm

    Moyer is 6.5 million guaranteed… if he pitches well enough, it goes up.

  4. Brian

    April 2, 2009 at 7:58 pm

    Unfortunately I can see all that coming true for this year. If it does happen that way I hope we are fortunate enough to have a Press Conference for Jamie ala Mike Schmidt mid-season.

    I’d really like to see him not go too long. It starts to ruin what they’ve accomplished when they hang around (dead weight).

  5. John Fire

    April 2, 2009 at 8:04 pm

    I hope Moyer proves us all wrong. It wasn’t THAT long ago that he, you know, went 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA…

  6. Greg V.

    April 2, 2009 at 8:20 pm

    86.1 innings? 3-3?

    The Mighty Moyer has got more gas in the tank than some of the kids half his age! I predict a strong season for Moyer. Probably not as good as last season, but he’ll be effective!

  7. Andy

    April 2, 2009 at 8:45 pm

    Let’s go Jamie. You have to prove them wrong one more time.

  8. Jim

    April 2, 2009 at 8:52 pm

    I say 9-7, 4.52 ERA,

  9. Ray

    April 2, 2009 at 8:56 pm

    3-3? seriously?

  10. Geoff

    April 2, 2009 at 9:22 pm

    This is spot on. Moyer is an amazing pitcher, BUT at this point Tim is right. How much longer can you honestly expect? If he has another 14+ win season that is flat out AMAZING. But I think everyones caught up to him. As you can tell form ST, these guys have been taught to take more than normal with Moyer and make him throw the ball over the plate. Thats exactly whats happening now.

    I think hell be retired by the end of the season, unfortunately, my prediction: 65.0 IP 2-6 7.45 ERA. If this guy is even on the ROSTER at the end of the season, even after all hes done, thats an amazing achievment. Guys that age dont generally hang around too long and every game he makes is amazing and is a treat, honestly. I just think that last year was special and he should have left it at that.

  11. Jim

    April 2, 2009 at 9:25 pm

    we better hope he doesnt have too bada season , we still owe him money next year too. unless were thinking bullpen role

  12. Geoff

    April 2, 2009 at 9:27 pm

    dude if its bad enough theyll matt morris him, he has pride after all and if its bad enough hell retire…

  13. Gregger

    April 2, 2009 at 9:40 pm

    come on now, lets have some faith in Jamie. It was only a year ago that he was 16-7 so why is it so obvious this year that this is the year that he begins to get shelled every start. People were saying the same things that would happen to him at the start of last year and he was amazing last year. I’m not saying he’ll be 16-7 again but I dont understand why people lost all faith in him? And this “eventually you just lose it” doesnt make any sense. Why would this HAVE to be the year when last year wasnt even close to it. And if not, at least he was the team leader in wins for our world series champion so he’ll always be loved and I’m definitely going with a glass half full thinking here but still have faith

  14. BurrGundy

    April 2, 2009 at 10:05 pm

    Tim is probably correct with Moyer. However, I hope he has another dazzlling season and wins 15. I think Old Jamie is sniffing 300 wins and that is his goal come hell or high water. We need this old timer.

  15. Mike W.

    April 2, 2009 at 10:08 pm

    Not sure how you can say he’ll finally break down at age 46 when he was so stellar at 45. It’s just illogical. He’s not losing any velocity (he can’t go down any more). He sure as hell isn’t getting any dumber with his pitch selection. Hitters have seen him forever. They have 22 years of film on him.

    Last year was obviously a special season for moyer. He isn’t that good. he’s probably the same or a bit better than 2007 moyer. But that isn’t all that bad.

  16. Jason B.

    April 2, 2009 at 10:33 pm

    I think if Moyer can got 10-8 with a 4.50 era, that is a highly successful season for him. Not good enough to win 16, but good enough to keep your team in it. With the Phils lineup, if Jaime gives up four and pitches 6 innings, they can certainly win those games.

  17. Don M

    April 2, 2009 at 10:37 pm

    Why is it that 45-year-old Jamie Moyer was so effective, our 2nd best pitcher for the 2008 season, but 46-year-old Jamie Moyer won’t make it to the All-Star break?

    What exactly am I missing that magically aged him in this past year?

    Somebody help me out here…

  18. Tim Malcolm

    April 2, 2009 at 10:45 pm

    Do people forget that 44-year-old Jamie Moyer finished with a 5.01 ERA?

    Or 41-year-old Moyer had a 5.21 ERA?

    I like the guy too, but 3.71 seems more like an anomaly.

  19. Tim Malcolm

    April 2, 2009 at 10:48 pm

    By the way, 4.69 isn’t horrible. It isn’t. But it’ll be a taxing 4.69, and one that will ultimately force him to rethink his spot in the rotation. Those are my cents.

  20. Don M

    April 2, 2009 at 10:55 pm

    My whole point is that NOBODY in their right mind would have expected Jamie Moyer to pitch better at 45 then he did at 44… so him turning 46 doesn’t mean that he’ll all of sudden forget how to pitch.

    On that same note..
    I’m not expecting him to be better than last year.. but I’m not expecting him to get yanked from the rotation like 85% of Phillies Nation

    Give me 12+ Wins, with a 4.40 ERA, and 1.40 WHIP… he’ll be the #3-#4 in our rotation, and he’s WAY BETTER than what most other teams are throwing out there in those spots

  21. philsphan

    April 2, 2009 at 11:11 pm

    There is no way Moyer pitches 86 innings or less with that ERA you projected. Eaton was much worse last season and still pitched over 100 innings.

  22. Tim Malcolm

    April 2, 2009 at 11:24 pm

    philsphan: The Phils didn’t have anyone ready to usurp Eaton quickly. The Phils have Happ chomping at the bit. They have Carrasco. They even have Kendrick hoping for another chance. PLUS I think if Moyer is bounced from the rotation, he’ll have something to say about it.

  23. ryan

    April 3, 2009 at 12:12 am

    tim. i think you are just looking for negatives so you don’t appear to be a homer. i can’t follow you’re logic on moyer at all. i see no reason why he would have a short season this year. i mean, he is 46, but he’s also Jamie Freaking Moyer. he defies conventional wisdom. i look for similar numbers as last year from Jamie

  24. Bruce

    April 3, 2009 at 12:23 am

    Tim predicts~ “I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again — I expect a shorter season for Moyer. 2009 Projection: 86.1 IP / 3-3 / 4.69 ERA / 30 BB / 43 K / 0 CG / 1.44 WHIP”.

    Geoff predicts~ “My prediction: 65.0 IP 2-6 7.45 ERA.”

    OK… I saved this and will post it again later in the season for all to see. (chuckles)

  25. Meat Balls

    April 3, 2009 at 7:32 am

    Tim – I typically agree with you, but I think (I pray) your prediction for Moyer’s season is dead wrong. The guy is a proven work horse, and his pitching mechanics appear to be effortless. In order for the Phillies to even come close to a repeat, he has to have at least 13 wins. My prediction is 14-9 WL ERA 4.21

    GO PHILLIES!!!!!!

  26. christopher

    April 3, 2009 at 7:42 am

    can’t wait for you to eat crow on this one tim. i’ll never let you live this down.

  27. Matt

    April 3, 2009 at 8:16 am

    People don’t need to be ripping Tim for this because the ERA is a reasonable expectation for him, the only problem I have is that I can’t see Jamie taking himself out, or the Phillies taking him out, after 86 IP unless he has a REALLY bad stretch or they’re behind in the standings, it probably should be more like 100-115 IP before that would happen. On the other hand Geoff is just an idiot. Every time I see somethign he posts, it’s ridiculous how negative and over-the-top he is.

  28. Tyler

    April 3, 2009 at 8:26 am

    look, yesterday’s outing sucked. We can all agree on that. Jamie struggled in ST. These are facts to back up why we think he will do poorly, but it doesnt mean squat. I agree with the few people here who say have some faith. He was phenomenal for us last year, hopefully hell do it again. Dont count him out yet.

  29. Matt

    April 3, 2009 at 8:32 am

    Carrasco will be the next Vincente Padilla, I’m calling it now. Very disappointing spring, two years in a row. He needs to grow up, and fast.

  30. Ben

    April 3, 2009 at 8:51 am

    Tim I’m not sure why you have Moyer pitching less innings? Injury? Poor performance? I know a 4.69 ERA isn’t great but thats not terrible. With that kind of ERA he wouldn’t land himself out of a rotation spot. Plus if he wins, his ERA is just a stat that no one will care about. I’m just curious what your reasons are for his lack of innings because if it was performance reasons then I think he would pitch more than that before the Phils made the move.

    You’d have a better case for Park, Myers or Blanton for either getting injured or not performing well. I will agree that his ERA will be more close to 5 than 4 this year, but if he gets the W’s no one will care that much.

  31. Manny

    April 3, 2009 at 9:14 am

    I think we can all agree on the 0 CG…

  32. Art

    April 3, 2009 at 10:23 am

    If Happ stays with the big club, it will be because the Phillies brass have the same doubts about Moyer that Tim expressed. Happ proved this spring that he is ready and should fit into the rotation without missing a beat. It is nice to have that kind of depth. No shopping around at trade deadlines.

  33. Chuck P

    April 3, 2009 at 10:26 am

    Jamie Moyer wins a Cy Young and Geoff jumps off of the Ben Franklin bridge… can you save that one, Bruce?

    Kidding, but in all seriousness, Moyer will be fine. He’s going to give us what he always gives us because his MO has always been consistency He’s not a mow-down pitcher and he seems to go through 1-2 game stretches where he’s not quite effective but he always finds it. He had a long season last year… I’m sure that it feels a little rushed for him at this point (he’s used to an extra month off and when you go through the same routine for 22 years, a short offseason has to feel a bit weird) but he’s going to average 6 innings per start and 3 ER per outing… and with this offense, that’s enough for 12-15 wins. Maybe he doesn’t hit 200 innings but he has been right around 200 innings in each of the past 8 seasons. His career average is 208 innings per season… if you look up consistency in the dictionary, his face is in there.

  34. BurrGundy

    April 3, 2009 at 11:57 am

    Where else but Philly would a 46-year-old pitcher bring out so much passion and controversy even before the season begins. Ya gotta love Philly

  35. philsphan

    April 3, 2009 at 5:48 pm

    Tim: That is not true. Happ was putting up very good numbers in AAA, leading the international league in strikeouts. They could have at least tried Happ over Eaton but didn’t take Eaton out for awhile because he was owed so much money (and another year). I would be shocked if Moyer pitched less than 100 innings this season unless he gets injured for his ERA is over 7.00 after over 2 months.

  36. Pingback: 2009 Season Predictions

  37. fred

    April 26, 2009 at 9:01 pm

    Great stats but dumb analysis. 3-3 (by the way, he’s already 3-1 now and it’s still April)? What magical think between age 45 and 46 would make him suddenly ineffective? He’s been dealing with unimaginative people like you for over twenty MLB seasons.

    If Happ sticks around it has more to do with Chan Ho Park than Moyer, who is going to be in that rotation pretty much no matter what.

  38. Tim Malcolm

    May 13, 2009 at 8:20 pm

    Sure, some of these numbers are currently higher, but, just saying.

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