Total WAR Project, Part IX: Boston Red Sox – Phillies Nation

Total WAR Project, Part IX: Boston Red Sox

The Total WAR Project is a series of posts that analyzes the closest competition facing the Phillies in 2010. The posts use Wins Above Replacement, a metric designed to use offensive and defensive production within a single stat. You can check out the rest of the teams in our series here.

Wednesday, I previewed the Red Sox as part of the A.L. East and league preview. Really, this is a team that would be the odds-on favorite to win any other division in the game. They have excellent pitching, a fan base that takes over nearly every visiting park and a patient offense that will put plenty of runners on base.

Ah, but they rue this day, for they must contend with those omnipotent Yankees not only 18 times a year, but in the race for a division title, as well. This is hardly an enviable position. Fortunately for Boston, the wild card provides a bit of a security blanket. Many would pencil the Red Sox in for a playoff spot right now, but with games to be played, all we can do is see just how good they might be, and wonder if they could truly contend for a seemingly locked-up division title.

2009 Roster

C1: Jason Varitek (1.3 WAR)
C2/1B: Victor Martinez (4.9 WAR)

1B: Kevin Youkilis (5.7 WAR)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (5.2 WAR)
3B: Mike Lowell (1.2 WAR)
SS: Nick Green (0.4 WAR)
DH: David Ortiz (0.8 WAR)
INF: Julio Lugo (-0.2), Alex Gonzalez (0.5), Casey Kotchman (1.0 WAR)

OF1: Jason Bay (3.5 WAR)
OF2: J.D. Drew (4.8 WAR)
OF3: Jacoby Ellsbury (1.9 WAR)
OF4: Rocco Baldelli (0.2 WAR)

SP1: Josh Beckett (5.3 WAR)
SP2: Jon Lester (6.2 WAR)
SP3: Brad Penny (2.5 WAR)
SP4: Tim Wakefield (1.9 WAR)
SP5: Clay Buchholz (1.2 WAR)
SP6: Daisuke Matsuzaka (0.5 WAR)

CL: Jonathan Papelbon (1.9 WAR)
SU: Ramon Ramirez (0.4 WAR)
RP: Hideki Okajima (0.6 WAR)
RP: Manny Delcarmen (0.2 WAR)
RP: Takashi Saito (0.4 WAR)
RP: Daniel Bard (0.8 WAR)

2009 Total WAR: 53.1

Getting 17.6 WAR from your starting rotation is an excellent way to be a contender. That tops the Yankees by a solid 3.4 wins, and their bullpen added an additional 4.3 wins. Sadly, that’s two wins shy of New York, and we’re left with just a one-win advantage before we even get to the offenses. It isn’t difficult to see how the Yankees end up being 6.7 wins better.

Surprised that J.D. Drew was better than Jason Bay? Don’t be. I know we’ve tried to repress it, but J.D. Drew is a really good offensive player. Boobirds notwithstanding. Anyway.

Knowing that they had major work to do and holes to fill, the Sox went out and improved their offense, defense and pitching in one year by snatching up Adrian Beltre, Mike Cameron and John Lackey. Signed to a five-year, $82.5 million deal, Lackey now joins Beckett and Lester to create one of the no-doubt best rotations in the game. Beltre and Cameron provide some offensive pop – Beltre especially should outperform Mike Lowell’s 2009 comfortably – but their true value lies in run prevention. Beltre is one of the best defenders at third in all of baseball, and Cameron is notoriously well-lauded for his work in center field. So confident in Cameron’s defense are Boston that they’ve moved Jacoby Ellsbury to left.

Ellsbury, while quick, takes poor routes and has difficulty reading balls off the bat. His speed is the only reason he is able to catch up to some plays in the field*. Diving catch highlights on SportsCenter can be a bit deceiving.

This still does not mean he is a great fielder. Instincts and sight stay with you long after the wheels go by the wayside, and if Ellsbury can not improve his route-running and reads, he will never be a true center fielder.

How will Boston’s offseason moves affect their WAR projection? Let’s take a peek.

2010 Projected Roster

C1/1B: Victor Martinez (4.5 WAR)
C2: Jason Varitek (1.1 WAR)

1B: Kevin Youkilis (3.7 WAR)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (4.7 WAR)
3B: Adrian Beltre (2.3 WAR)
SS: Marco Scutaro (3.0 WAR)
DH: David Ortiz (2.3 WAR)
INF: Mike Lowell (2.2 WAR), Bill Hall (-0.7 WAR), Jed Lowrie (1.4 WAR)

OF1: Mike Cameron (1.9 WAR)
OF2: J.D. Drew (2.5 WAR)
OF3: Jacoby Ellsbury (3.7 WAR)
OF4: Jeremy Hermida (1.3 WAR)

SP1: Josh Beckett (4.7 WAR)*
SP2: Jon Lester (5.6 WAR)*
SP3: John Lackey (3.7 WAR)*
SP4: Tim Wakefield (1.3 WAR)*
SP5: Clay Buchholz (2.4 WAR)*
SP6: Daisuke Matsuzaka (2.0 WAR)*

CL: Jonathan Papelbon (2.3 WAR)*
SU: Ramon Ramirez (0.5 WAR)*
RP: Hideki Okajima (0.5 WAR)*
RP: Manny Delcarmen (0.4 WAR)*
RP: Michael Bowden (0 WAR)
RP: Daniel Bard (1.3 WAR)*

2010 Projected Total WAR: 58.6

Notable IN: Beltre, Cameron, Hermida, Lackey, Scutaro
Notable OUT: Green, Saito

Adding five-and-a-half wins to an already impressive squad makes the Red Sox that much more dangerous. At least this gets Pat Gallen off the hook for picking the Sox to take the East from the Yankees.

In approaching 60 WAR, the Sox can absolutely be considered “elite.” Great pitching, very good offense and great defense all contribute to form a scary team, and that’s with Lester and a couple others expected to take a step back. Depth is a bit of an issue, but if Lowell ends up having as good a season as he’s projected to have (.273/.328/.429), he’ll be a top bench bat.

The only thing standing between Boston and another playoff berth is injury, because, when healthy, this team is a near lock for the postseason.

2009 Roster
CJorge Posada (3.9 WAR)
C2: Jose Molina (0.0 WAR)
1B: Mark Teixeira (5.2 WAR)
2B: Robinson Cano (4.4 WAR)
3B: Alex Rodriguez (4.4 WAR)
SS: Derek Jeter (7.4 WAR)
INF: Jerry Hairson, Jr. (0.6 WAR); Ramiro Pena (0.5 WAR)
OF1: Johnny Damon (3.1 WAR)
OF2: Melky Cabrera (2.7 WAR)
OF3: Nick Swisher (3.6 WAR)
OF4: Hideki Matsui (1.7 WAR)
OF5: Brett Gardner (2.0 WAR)
SP1: CC Sabathia (6.0 WAR)
SP2: Andy Pettitte (3.3 WAR)
SP3: A.J. Burnett (3.1 WAR)
SP4: Joba Chamberlain (1.5 WAR)
SP5: Sergio Mitre (0.2 WAR)
SP6: Chad Gaudin (0.1 WAR)
CL: Mariano Rivera (2.0 WAR)
SU: Phil Hughes (2.2 WAR)
RP: Alfredo Aceves (1.2 WAR)
RP: David Robertson (0.7 WAR)
RP: Phil Coke (0.1 WAR)
RP: Brian Bruney (-0.1 WAR)
2009 Total WAR: 59.8


  1. John

    March 18, 2010 at 9:52 pm

    I’ve been waiting to see how the Sox matched up against the Skanks. Suprisingly close, very interesting to see how an outstanding pitching staff compares to a prolific offense. Nice work on all of these posts, Paul, I appreciate you doing what I am far too lazy for! Verducci recently did an interesting article comparing starters IPs for the Skanks and Sox, that really looked at the correlation between winning and IPs for the 5 man rotation. That being said, getting 200 plus from our 5 would make me physically giddy.

  2. John

    March 18, 2010 at 9:59 pm – verducci article…

    I’m no expert when it comes to to WAR, but doesn’t 3.7 seem a bit low for Youk? Also, it wouldn’t be too surprising to see Papi surpass the projection of 2.3 WAR

  3. bfo_33

    March 19, 2010 at 7:24 am

    What an insane division that the Sox aren’t a lock with that pitching staff. I wonder what they are going to get out of Dice-K this year – if healthy and can find the strike zone, may take some of the load off Beckett and Lester, save them for the playoffs. If Lester and Beckett can stay healthy/somewhat rested, a very dangerous team in Oct.

    I think Ortiz is done, probably see a platoon at DH with him and Lowell (if healthy, not traded), but not expecting much out of either. I think Scutaro is going to have a bigger impact than Lackey (first real shortstop they’ve had since Cabrera, nice bat).

  4. Paul Boye

    March 19, 2010 at 10:14 am


    Youkilis and Lester both seemed to grade out a bit low to me. Obviously Youkilis is creeping up on his decline phase, but Lester should still be improving and I don’t see him losing 1+ wins this year unless he’s hurt.

  5. Don M

    March 19, 2010 at 12:25 pm

    I don’t even know what this sh!t means..

    “Lester should still be improving and I don’t see him losing 1+ wins this year unless he’s hurt.”

    Like, what is LOSING A WIN ???

    he won’t have as many wins as last year..?
    Or he might have another loss? . . .

    all this sabermetric stuff gets way too involved for my see-the-ball, hit-the-ball approach to sports

  6. Don M

    March 19, 2010 at 12:29 pm

    Didn’t SMOLTZ pitch for them last year?… wouldn’t you need to add every WAR-SCORE (or rating or whatever it is).. for every player that played in any games

  7. Paul Boye

    March 19, 2010 at 12:51 pm


    I use those who contributed most often for each team. Not counting starters, there were 7 other Red Sox pitchers who pitched more innings than Smoltz. Like I’d done with other teams in the series, I made a call about where to cut off the list based on samples. Usually, those who contribute the least have such small amounts of WAR added or subtracted, they balance each other out (or at least provide no real significant total value).

    As for my terminology about gaining or losing a win, I mean in terms of the stat, not his record. A pitcher’s record is basically worthless as it relates to his performance on the mound. A “win” is basically about 10 runs produced/saved over replacement.

  8. Manny

    March 19, 2010 at 1:28 pm

    I just looked at Lester’s numbers and noticed how similar they are to Hamels’… Basically the same career ERA, both have 4 years experience, they’re both 26…

  9. Chuck

    March 19, 2010 at 1:39 pm

    See….this is exactly why I gave up on reading (or trying to read) this WAR stuff. It goes way over my head….and I really don’t consider myself a dummy or anything. It’s just too “out there” for me.

    Plus, every time I see WAR in one of these articles, I automatically start thinking tanks and rifles…..and that’s wrong.

    Because this is BASEBALL….a nice, enjoyable sport that’s supposed to be enyoyed on a lazy, warm afternoon or a clear, mild evening.

    Sorry. I know you’re trying to bring more stats …..(which are good, by the way….. SOME stats ARE good)…… to this crowd here at PN. I just don’t know how many of us really appreciate it to the point that you think we should.

  10. Paul Boye

    March 19, 2010 at 3:50 pm

    True, I have no idea how many people out there like/dislike it because not all PN readers are registered or feel like commenting either way. If I’ve failed to bring it into your lexicon, well, that’s just something I’ve got to deal with.

    Doesn’t mean this is the last time you’ll see it, though.

  11. Paul Boye

    March 19, 2010 at 3:51 pm

    And, for the record, I’m still unsure when an affinity for stats meant a total disregard for the enjoyment of watching a game.

  12. Phylan

    March 19, 2010 at 4:01 pm

    No, Chuck is right, my interest in properly measuring a player’s production completely excludes me from enjoying a baseball game. After all, I can’t well lug my slide rules into the stadium, and security throws me out when I get into fist fights with those seated around me about VORP.

  13. Corey Seidman

    March 19, 2010 at 4:11 pm

    Stats are evidence. Stats explain exactly what goes on on the field. Writers use stats to back up the points they are trying to make.

    Paul’s WAR series outlines the Phillies biggest competition in terms of a single stat that completely encompasses offensive and defensive stats. It makes sense to use WAR to look at the teams that could compete with the Phillies; it wouldn’t make sense to use a stat like, say, RBI, even though mostly everyone knows what an RBI is.

    Just because you don’t want to take the thirty seconds to understand what WAR is doesn’t mean it’s useless or out there.

    And the assumption that people who base their conclusions upon stats do not enjoy the game of baseball is ridiculous. It’s not as if when Paul or I watch a game we think, wow, Ryan Howard’s WAR just went up. However, when trying to make a point, I’m from this really crazy school of, BACK UP WHAT YOU WRITE!

  14. Paul Boye

    March 19, 2010 at 4:21 pm

    Gentlemen, it appears we’ve entered…the VORP-tex…

  15. BurrGundy

    March 19, 2010 at 4:50 pm

    Maybe I am just too damn old and set in my ways. But aren’t there a lot of more interesting things to write about regarding baseball and the Phillies than the WAR PROJECT ? What about some bio info about the up-and-coming minor leaguers? What are some of the retired Phillies up to these days? I am an old, old fart. I think I know a fair amount about my favorite sport, but the WAR stuff just does not turn me on. But neither did oysters when I was introduced to them years ago. Now I not only love oyster stew, but have sold my recipe to a major food company. Anyway, that’s my two cents. Love the Phillies Nation Blog !!!

  16. Phylan

    March 19, 2010 at 4:55 pm

    Maybe lace would work? Something bikini-cut?

  17. John

    March 19, 2010 at 5:13 pm

    Since we’re on the topic maybe someone could help me… My basic understanding is that the main difference between WAR and VORP is that WAR includes defensive ratings while VORP does not. Is that about right?

    While I don’t fully understand either of these stats, I think I’ve got the basic idea. It certainly can be quite confusing, but, what I do really like is the way these stats are trying to evaluate players on a ‘level playing field’ so to speak.

  18. John

    March 19, 2010 at 5:15 pm

    Perhaps WAR 101 would make for a fine blog entry…

  19. Phylan

    March 19, 2010 at 5:19 pm

    That’s correct, with the additional difference that VORP is on a runs above replacement and WAR is wins.

  20. John

    March 19, 2010 at 5:28 pm,211211 Pretty enlightening description of WAR (though still complex) — even mentions Utley being potentially more ‘valuable’ than Pujols.

  21. shag beta sigma delta

    March 19, 2010 at 5:58 pm

    I have to agree this post has been up for two days now. And I personally could care less about some of these obscure stats. Because really can anyone say how many wins above a replacement some is. Does it not matter who that replacement is? I know the fantasy trade of Howard and Pujols was pretty dumb, but it least it was interesting conversation piece. Just my two cents

  22. Jeff of Nova

    March 19, 2010 at 6:11 pm

    I am not old and set in my ways, but I really don’t care too much about the Sox. I truly want to just focus on the Phillies and those that Phillies actually play daily.

    This was an interesting read, but we can move after a day off it.

    Thanks for the insite on the Sox, but untill we get close to the WS I don’t want to be bothered with the AL.

    Phillies baseball is in full swing,

    How about Lidge pitching yesterday, or the All Decade team posted on MLB for the Phillies. How about the discussion with Kendrick pitching tonight. Still hasn’t given up a run. Moyer had a big setback in a B game. Can Kendrick keep this up? Is he for real or is he just having an out of body experience? I think he is really been zoned in and relaxed. Moyer is set to pitch tomorrow in a reg game. If he pitches poorly might set Kendrick up as the 5th starter. I would love for Kendrick to be the 5th starter and Moyer moves to pen to help stablize the lefty portion of the pen.

    Talk amoungst yourselves

  23. Manny

    March 19, 2010 at 6:18 pm

    I agree with Jeff of Nova. Let’s get something new on the site! Phillies are about to start the season…it’s just a matter of days now… and there ARE interesting topics related to Phillies Spring Training: Updates on Lidge, Romero, the “battle” for the fifth spot (I got the feeling that Kendrick is gonna beat Moyer, something that didn’t appear likely less than a month ago), our Rule 5 guy who’s been pitching pretty damn well (is he still with the team???), Escalana/Bastardo: who will be our LOOGY??, Polanco’s injury….

    All of that is more important for us phans than the Red Sox’ WAR (not to say that I don’t appreciate the post, cause I do… but let’s move on guys!).

  24. Jeff of Nova

    March 19, 2010 at 6:37 pm


  25. Jeff of Nova

    March 19, 2010 at 6:49 pm

    Kendrick has already pitched 3 scoreless looking good

  26. WFC010

    March 19, 2010 at 6:55 pm

    What channel is the Phillies game on?

    I wanna watch or at least listen to it!

  27. Jeff of Nova

    March 19, 2010 at 7:52 pm

  28. BurrGundy

    March 19, 2010 at 8:20 pm

    Looks like the Phils had no hits and no runs after seven innings today against the Orioles. Kendrick pitched well, giving up two runs in five innings. The bullpen did not give up anything. No hits in seven innings for the Phils…… Damn !!!

  29. MikeB.

    March 19, 2010 at 10:33 pm

    I know it was just a spring training game loss against Baltimore but with 2 losses against them this spring and 3 inter-league regular season losses against them last season, that makes 5 straight setbacks against the Orioles. Would be nice to win one game against them; any game. Only positive in this game was the pitching.

  30. Manny

    March 20, 2010 at 1:06 am

    …If it wasn’t for Mayberry it would’ve been a freaking NO HITTER

  31. Repeat!

    March 20, 2010 at 1:13 am

    nice work on the article. the Redsox infield is very old outside of Dustin. They went and focused on defense and pitching??? yes but only because they had no choice..the Yanks have stolen their mojo and free agent siging power/success…. Defense isn’t about the # errors you don’t make unlesss you committ them in bunches like the Marlins. Its more about baseballs that your fielders can get too. Overall the Redsox defense has solid but not exceptional range. Lackey was a great pick up of course. Tim Wakefield(WC/non factor come October), Lester(great story) but his performance goes up and down a lot. So does his era. Josh is great, but he’s a hot head that is still in denial about his game still being as dominate as it was in 2004/2007. And Dice-K is injury prone and all over the place with his pitches at times. Are old friend Jerry from the Step Father is a good locker room policeman and a great motivator. But he is not a very good at making in game tatical moves. See 09 ALDS. He now has an NL team in the AL East. Not a good sign. Especially when you consider the Rays should be a lot better than they were last season. The Yanks has CC, Vaz, AJ and Andy P. Plus they have the resources to make a move for a starter in July. The Redsox are going through post no-roid testing era withdrawal syndrome. The only cure is to do what the Yanks did which is loading up on young stars. The Redsox woun’t be able to do that til 2011/2012. Sox probably will get in, but they can’t touch the Yankees right now. Phillies better get their BP together or none of this will even matter.

  32. Repeat!

    March 20, 2010 at 1:27 am

    i forgot about beltre.. even still their can’t touch the Yankees infield

  33. WFC010

    March 20, 2010 at 4:06 am

    Personally, I am really getting SICK of how people say how great the American League is…and how apparently the Phillies pale in comparison to the Yankees or Red Sox.

    Well, ENOUGH I SAY!

    As Phillies fans, we shouldn’t be talking like we have no chance against the American League’s best teams. But of course then we’ll get a damn WAR post about the Phillies, and find out there’s some ridiculous difference in WAR between us and the Yankees/Sox, and then we’ll have a bunch of clowns running around shouting “WE’RE DOOMED!” more than I already see.

    This is why I really don’t like WAR much, since it over-simplifies things to the point where people think it’s a fluke when a team with lower WAR projections takes down a team with higher WAR.

  34. John

    March 20, 2010 at 6:29 am

    WFC – I agree totally, I just don’t see how the AL is superior at all. I feel like any gap in offense can be chalked up to the DH. Unfortunately, there’s a better chance of the NL adding the DH than the AL dropping it — the players union would never go for that.

    As for WAR – I did a little bit of digging on the Phils from last year. Without getting to deeply into it, I found that for ’09 Hamels was at 3.8, Blanton at 2.2, and Happ at 1.8 Maybe Happ is a bit low because he wasn’t a starter for the whole year. I think we all know that while Cole is the better pitcher, Joe had the better year, so it’s a bit strange to me that Hamels was rated so much higher than the other two. Heck if you combine Blanton and Happ for a 4.0, it’s barely higher than the 3.8 for Cole. Is it just me, or does that not seem to accurately reflect the value of the three pitchers last year? Is there some sort of WAR secret that would cause Hamels to be rated that high in comparison?

  35. BurrGundy

    March 20, 2010 at 10:27 am

    Looks like our friend Cliff Lee has a torn muscle in his stomach region and likely will not be on the opening day roster for the Mariners. This could take a while to heal and affect his performance in ’10.

  36. The Second John

    March 20, 2010 at 11:10 am

    In my opinion, stats like WAR, VORP, FIP, xFIP etc. are all great ways to measure the game. Just because you pay attention to those stats doesen’t mean that you can’t enjoy baseball. I love baseball, but I still pay attention to these stats. The purpose of WAR is just a way to compare players. Its not that complicated. The higher the WAR, the better the player.

    I do agree with Jeff of Nova about getting some new material about the PHILLIES in this site. After all, the blog is called PHILLIES nation.

  37. The Second John

    March 20, 2010 at 11:13 am

    BTW, did anybody see this site The Phield? (not sure if this is already posted) Anyway, it compares a lot of the Phillies blogs into a bracket, and determines who is the best blog by voting. Phillies Nation is a #1 seed by the way.

    Here is the bracket…..

  38. beta sigma shag

    March 20, 2010 at 11:22 am

    Ok now this post is what 3 -4 days old. The Phillies have played at least one ST game, which since I worked and they were not on MLB network, all I got was the score. Can we have a post about how the game went KK gave up 2 runs did he still pitch well, how do you not get any hits in a ST game? How is PP, did he play, is it a bigger deal then first reported? Will he be fine? Some one on here posted that pitching was the only good thing in the game. Who was it how well did they pitch? Has Taylor stayed on fire? Only about 100 things we could be discussing that had to do with the Phillies, just no post to comment on for almost 4 days. Is the staff here all on vacation. I really did not think Dipsy could be quiet for more than 3 minutes, much less absent for 3 days.
    And for you fans on here 1 o’clock game on MLB network, and lucky me I get to go to work again, at least I have DVR

  39. Don M

    March 20, 2010 at 11:27 am

    my 3 sites are





    that gives me all the info I need to know about the Phillies… I dont count the stuff from as “blogs” . . . but I read all of those articles too

  40. The Second John

    March 20, 2010 at 11:29 am

    Don, I don’t go to the blogs, because most of the people who comment there are complete idiots.

  41. The Second John

    March 20, 2010 at 11:33 am

    Here are my websites for Phills news:

    Phillies Nation

    The Fightins (not for news, just for a laugh)


  42. John

    March 20, 2010 at 12:20 pm

    Crashburn Alley is also a fantastic site… Since we need something new to talk about, I’ll start.

    On Werth — I haven’t really heard anyone mention offering him arbitration after the season. The front office will have to do that if they hope to get the compensatory picks in the draft, and it would enable us to get one more year of Jayson. In addition to that I think offering him arbitration would be a good way of gauging his desire to stay in Philly as opposed to aiming strictly for a big payday. If he declines, we take our picks and move on. But, if he accepts, RAJ can move on trading Ibanez after the season. If Raul could be moved, that would give us an ‘11 outfield of Jayson, Shane, and Domonic (assuming he continues progression in the minors this year) If not, we have the same outfield with Dom potentially platooning in left. After 2011 then, with Ibanez’s and Howard’s contract expiring enough money should be freed up to extend Werth. That of course woould leave us with a hole at first (I’ll ignore Jimmy for now) I can see that being handled in 2 different ways. Sign a FA 1st baseman or shift Utley to first, Polly to 2nd, and sign a FA 3rd baseman. (not sure about his contract status, but I think Zimmerman would be a nice fit) As for J-Roll, he just seems like the guy along with Chase that are Philly lifers, I can picture anybody on the team in another uni, but not those two. We talk about the ‘core’ guys a lot, but in my mind, Phillies baseball without Chase and Jimmy would be a travesty.

  43. Manny

    March 20, 2010 at 12:31 pm

    Roy’s pitches look flat today… he doesn’t seem to have it.

  44. John

    March 20, 2010 at 12:34 pm

    Yeah to say the least… We all have our bad days I guess. It’s nice to have a pitcher that’s so good you can laugh off the occasional bad day. (unless it’s October!)

  45. Manny

    March 20, 2010 at 12:40 pm

    He looks so…. human.

  46. Manny

    March 20, 2010 at 12:47 pm

    ROY GOT A HIT! haha

  47. John

    March 20, 2010 at 12:52 pm

    Okay, so who kidnapped Roy and put Adam Eaton in his jersey as if we wouldn’t notice!?

  48. mikemike

    March 20, 2010 at 2:09 pm

    look we all love the phillies but they dont hv a chance against the yankees or boston, the yankees starter are better and so are boston. IF we had lee then its different. but we didnt improve our starters lee and halladay can only pitch one day. lee was dominate and we lost, how much better can he be than lee was. sorry but it is fact we dont have pitching to match pettite and beckett or others on those teams,the second and third starter are just so much better.

  49. Manny

    March 20, 2010 at 2:12 pm

    By the way, I’m definitely starting a movement to keep DAVID HERNDON in Philly…

    He looked nasty today, and the stats this spring back him up. KEEP HIM IN THE PEN!

    Founder of the Keep Herndon in Red Pinstripes Movement

  50. WFC010

    March 20, 2010 at 3:14 pm

    mikemike: If the Phillies don’t have a chance, then why even watch the season at all?

    I have never seen anything out of you besides negativity, and I wouldn’t be surprised if you were a closet Yankees fan.

    Also, Hamels(2006-2008 version) can easily rival or top many of the 1-2 starters on other teams…so stop talking like our pitching staff after Halladay sucks or something!

  51. Don M

    March 20, 2010 at 4:59 pm

    this dude mikemike is the worst…

    in like the past year, I dont think i’ve read a single, positive post from him..

    Werth wouldn’t accept arbitration because he wants a decent guaranteed contract.. why play for only one year, where an injury could mean no more income for your family. He’ll be looking for a solid 4-5 year deal.. and I highly doubt that a realistic offer comes from the phillies. I’d love to keep him here, but let’s have the year play out and then see what our needs are… how much Domomic Brown has progressed, etc

  52. Don M

    March 20, 2010 at 7:06 pm

    this might be a dead topic.. but oh well,

    I kinda get the VORP, WAR, etc.. all those stats

    but to me, that stuff is more in-depth than things need to be.. You have the age-old baseball numbers, the Batting Avg, RBI, and the ERA, etc . . . mix in some of the newer OBP% .. OPS… WHIP for pitchers

    then use either the sight test (as a fan).. or use your scouts (as an organization) to determine which teams and players are good…

    Without the use of any calculations.. we all know that the Yankees, RedSox, Rays, Twins, White Sox, Angels will be good teams… then, you have Tigers, Rangers, Mariners… where health, and new faces that need time to develop will determine how good they are..

    I don’t mean to knock any of these posts.. its just random numbers to me. I’ve said before, I’ve read both MONEYBALL and “3 Nights in August” . . . . so I understand the theories of numbers tell the story vs. heart & hustle judged with the naked eye

    Neither is 100% right… Neither is 100% wrong… Its why they play the games on the field, not on paper.

    Given a healthy season by every team in baseball, I would still post the Phillies as the NL favorite.. and the Yankees as the AL . . . because I think both teams actually got better in the offseason

    And… not sure what the numbers will say.. but I think the Dodgers are going to suck this year

  53. WFC010

    March 21, 2010 at 4:28 am

    I don’t think the Dodgers will suck this year, but I think their best case scenario would be as a Wild Card entry this year…and even that is hardly a lock to happen.

    Also, am I the only one who’s getting pretty nervous about Polanco at third?

    I know that injury last week was only a minor thing, but it just makes me feel uneasy that more may be yet to come. Hopefully we can find a competent backup 3rd bagger on the cheap, should Polanco end up on the DL for any significant amount of time.

  54. Don M

    March 22, 2010 at 9:22 am

    yea I don’t mean SUCK like 70 wins… I just don’t see them as good as they’ve been the past two years

    3rd base backups will be

    Castro, or Dobbs . . . either are fine when the rest of your infield is made up of All-Stars

  55. Chuck

    March 22, 2010 at 10:17 am

    This thread may be dead by now….but here goes with a few “bullet” points.

    * mikemike is a loser. Truly the MOST negative guy on this site.

    * Stats are fine. I basically understand WAR, etc. Just don’t like to get bogged down with too much info at once. And, I get it that it may not necessarily get in the way of the game experience….as the game is being played…..but rather it’s used as another tool to make points. Fine.

    * Daved Herndon….. Yeah.

    * Placido Polanco will be fine at 3rd.

    * Dodgers will not be as good…..the team to beat in that division is the Rockies.

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