Analysis

Phillies Trade Deadline Thread: July 22

8:35 am: This morning on ESPN Radio, Tim Kurkjian talked about the ongoing Roy Oswalt chatter. Kurkjian stated that the Cardinals are talking about Oswalt, because, why wouldn’t they. A top-three of Carpenter, Wainwright, and Oswalt would be virtually unbeatable in the playoffs. However, he sees a Cards/Oswalt union as unlikely because of his contract. Kurkjian believes they have to leave some money available for when Albert Pujols is ready to sign on the dotted line again.

As for the Phillies, he wonders if they, too, can get a deal done because of the finances involved. But the ESPN Insider says Oswalt might have to give up his demands to have his 2012 option picked up before a trade is finalized, if he wants to go to a contending club. Oswalt is owed roughly $6 million this season and $16 million next year before the option year comes into play.

-Late last night, Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com said that the Phillies could go without adding a pitcher altogether if they cannot grab a top arm like Oswalt or Dan Haren. Haren is an interesting case. He would cost slightly more than Oswalt as far as prospects are concerned, but his contract is friendlier. He is owed the remainder of his $8.25 million salary this season and $12.5 million in both 2011 and 2012. He has a $15 million option for 2013 or a $3.5 million buyout. There have been indications that the Phils will stretch the budget for the “right” pitcher, per Salisbury.

115 Comments

115 Comments

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  2. Manny

    July 22, 2010 at 10:25 am

    “There have been indications that the Phils will stretch the budget for the “right” pitcher”

    Oh, like that pitcher we basically had under control for all of 2010?
    It makes my blood boil!

  3. Jeff

    July 22, 2010 at 10:27 am

    you are right manny. this team had there guy. now we are giving up more to get a lesser pitcher. its amazing how bad of a job ruin is doing. you give lee that 9 million for this season. then sit down after and work something out.

    oswalt is now saying if the stros trade him to the cards he will give up that option. he is an a s s h o l e. who needs him. i hope they trade him to the cards. so the astros face him.

  4. Chuck

    July 22, 2010 at 10:31 am

    Guys, GIVE IT UP!!!! It’s in the past….OVER. For the love of God, MOVE the EFF ON!!!!

    Ruben will do something and all will be good….IN THE LONG RUN.

    But this contstant Cliff Lee horsesh*t has got to stop already!!!

  5. Toady Lickspittle

    July 22, 2010 at 10:31 am

    I do not believe that the Phils will do anything. This is all talk, talk, talk to get our hopes up. Top management will not spend the money and want attendance and team interest to soar despite becoming just a mediocre team.

  6. Red McNertney

    July 22, 2010 at 10:32 am

    I think we will soon hear good news.

  7. Pink

    July 22, 2010 at 10:36 am

    I don’t think ruben would have made such obvious hints about acquiring a pitcher if he did not intend on doing what he had to to get it done.

    Also, if they don’t get a pitcher what happens? Do they call Happ and KK back up for saturday and sunday?

  8. Manny

    July 22, 2010 at 10:42 am

    Just let Happ pitch.

  9. Don M

    July 22, 2010 at 10:47 am

    I read that Oswalt would possibly soften his demand of the $16 M, 2012 Option being picked up, if he was dealt to the Cardinals

    from everything i’ve read on the guy, he either wants to stay in the midwest, or pitch for the Yankees ….

    ….
    Red Sox are said to be “very interested” in Jayson Werth (i see them as his likely 2011 destination, but not them trading for him)

    The Red Sox are not big fans of Jacoby Ellsbury lately, and the Rays are said to not love BJ Upton ….both would be great returns for Werth in my opinion … Ellsbury could give us a LEGIT leadoff man (Rollins could bat 5th), but Ellsbury is another Lefty (but would that matter if Rollins is still the switch hitter at #5)?

    BJ Upton has all the talent in the world, and I really think that he could learn from, and conent with Rollins and Howard …


    Mets are said to be looking to move Jeff Francouer … I think he sucks, but I also think his RH bat could be more useful than Ben Francisco.. you could probably get him for almost nothing from the Mets, and he has a laser-rocket arm in RF

    Career .268 hitter, averages 20 HRs a year (due in large part to his 29 HRs in 2006) .. 93 RBIs a year

    I wonder if Charlie and Milt could get him going at all, he’s only 26 years old

  10. Chris.I

    July 22, 2010 at 10:47 am

    They NEED either Oswalt or Haren even if its just to rebuild for ”next season”, because the FA market next season for starting picthing isn’t impressive at all. If they don’t make a trade by midnight tonight, my guess is they wont make one at all

  11. Chris.I

    July 22, 2010 at 10:52 am

    This feels like we went back into time to the year 1997 when nobody wanted to sign here…This is how bad this team is playing! Its really starting to become a joke

  12. Tusker

    July 22, 2010 at 10:53 am

    Don’t get Oswalt or Haren. Wait till the offseason and get Lee. If there going to expand there budget prove it. What’s this love affair with Haran anyway. Also isn’t Oswalt 33 anf often injured. Lets keep what prospects we have left after the Raping from Ruben and come back next year with the hunger that they are seemingly missing this year. Oh yeah trade Werth.

  13. Pickles Rarnt

    July 22, 2010 at 10:59 am

    The Phils need to start rebuilding for next season. This one is lost. They cannot score runs on a regular basis. They desperately need bullpen help. In the playoffs, if they were to make it, they would fold quickly and embarrass themselves and the city.

  14. Don M

    July 22, 2010 at 11:00 am

    Oswalt is possibly the MOST underrated pitcher in baseball …

    Haren is among the most OVERrated.. I think Hamels is better.

    Lower Career ERA, the same Career WHIP, and Hamels has a better Batting Average Against… More Ks-per-9 in his career
    …..

    Cliff Lee aint coming back, in a any trades, or as a Free Agent .. he’s going to the Yankees, at something like a 5-6 year, $20 M per season contract

  15. Chris.I

    July 22, 2010 at 11:01 am

    The Yankees are going to do whatever it takes to get Lee…Thats their main objective this offseason. My guess is that he gets close to a 8 year 175 Million dollar contract. How can the Phillies compete with that? Lee is out of the question at this point

  16. Don M

    July 22, 2010 at 11:03 am

    How did Kershaw get suspended 5 games, but Lincecum get nothing for throwing up-and-in against Kemp … and then drilling him with the very next pitch?

    Kershaw later hit Rowand in retaliation.. but they should have the same penalty.. either 0 games, or 5 games

  17. Morris Buttermaker

    July 22, 2010 at 11:04 am

    “but I also think his RH bat could be more useful than Ben Francisco”

    A soaking wet brown paper bag is more useful than Ben Francisco.

  18. pat carbone

    July 22, 2010 at 11:04 am

    trade Happ and prospect for Haren. Haren is a good pitcher who has struggled at times. He is younger and cheaper and could be the number 2 on this time for 5 years. Then trade werth for wade davis. Wade davis is a future number 2 at most number three. call up dom brown and get a cheap right handed bat. This not only sets you up for the next 5 years but can salvage this season

  19. Chuck

    July 22, 2010 at 11:06 am

    Yeah, Cliff Lee is NOT going to be a Phillie next year….so you goofs need to just clear that thought from your heads.

    I absolutely think that Hamels is better than Haren….and he’s 3 years younger. Still only 26!!!

    I think I would prefer Upton over Ellsbury. That’s just me.

  20. Chris.I

    July 22, 2010 at 11:09 am

    I don’t think Hamels is better than Haren. I don’t think Hamels is better than Shields either

  21. Don M

    July 22, 2010 at 11:13 am

    If Francisco got the chance to play everyday.. you’d see a productive player

    as is the case with every bench guy, the more they play, the more they produce

    ..
    Pat Carbone, Happ is more of a “throw-in” than someone you could center a trade around … he would be included in a trade, but not the main piece

  22. Tusker

    July 22, 2010 at 11:13 am

    Oh brother Brad Lidge says he will talk to Oswalt

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

  23. Don M

    July 22, 2010 at 11:14 am

    Chris I … look at their numbers, their ages, and then tell me how you think Haren and Shields are better than Hamels??

    …the biggest problem with Hamels isn’t anything he’s done.. its that the fans thought he would win 7 Cy Youngs in the first 4 years in the Majors

  24. Don M

    July 22, 2010 at 11:16 am

    Hamels should have 12 wins right now… instead he’s 7-7, but he’s been a legit #2 any way you look at it

  25. pat carbone

    July 22, 2010 at 11:20 am

    ok then give them two prospects and happ for haren. doc, haren, hamels, davis for the next 5 years is golden.

  26. Chris.I

    July 22, 2010 at 11:25 am

    Don your right…He is a #2 guy, and his 3.63 era doesn’t lie, but IMO I just don’t think hes better than Haren…Maybe I was going too far with Shields, but Shields and Hamels are almost identicle in every way.

  27. Josh

    July 22, 2010 at 11:30 am

    Shields and Hamels are identical? How? They don’t even throw with the same hand and their stat lines are complete opposites.

    Lets not compare Hamels to scrubs. I do think Haren is a stud and would be a nice equal to Hamels as a 2 and 3 in the rotation.

  28. Chuck

    July 22, 2010 at 11:32 am

    BJ Upton: 26 years old in August….career .261 hitter, career .970 fielding pct (mostly in CF)

    Jacoby Ellsbury: 27 yrs old in Sept…..career .295 hitter, career .997 fielding pct (again mostly in CF, but has some RF and LF experience, too)
    AND….led the league in SB in both ’08 and ’09.

    Maybe I should rethink my preference….although I DO think Upton has TONS of talent and potential.

  29. Don M

    July 22, 2010 at 11:33 am

    They want TWO pitchers that they can put into their rotation RIGHT NOW, along with one or two additional propects, for Dan Haren

    I highly doubt he’s Philadelphia-bound

    The Wade Davis trade could happen, because they think Hellickson has more upside (not sure why he’s still in the minors??)

  30. Tusker

    July 22, 2010 at 11:37 am

    Ok Oswalt is a B**** his agent just said this “he doesnt want to play anywhere that has an “aggressive media or fan base”

  31. Don M

    July 22, 2010 at 11:42 am

    yea Oswalt wants to go to St Louis… if he waives his demand for that option year at $16 M …. that tells you how bad he wants to go there

  32. Ted Bell

    July 22, 2010 at 11:44 am

    I think that if the Phillies ended up with Oswalt they would start losing games by 3-1 scores rather than 6-1. I guess that’s progress, but it doesn’t address the problems that will continue to exist with this lineup.

    I heard this joke yesterday:

    Q. What’s the opposite of “architect” ?
    A. “Amaro”

    I’m Ted Bell.

  33. Chuck

    July 22, 2010 at 11:46 am

    Well, we all know that St. Louis does NOT have “aggressive” fans.

  34. The Second John

    July 22, 2010 at 12:04 pm

    Is it time to give up on the season yet?

  35. The Dipsy

    July 22, 2010 at 12:05 pm

    St. Louis doesn’t need Oswalt. I don’t understand why they would trade for him. Did St. Louis even mention that they were interested?

    Oswalt (we pick up the option)
    Lindstrom

    for

    Happ
    Kendrick (still only 25 and does have upside)
    Lidge (Houston need to eat some cash, too.)
    And a better than average prospect. (Like Freddie Galvis, etc)

    The Dispy

  36. The Second John

    July 22, 2010 at 12:06 pm

    BTW Moyer to DL.

  37. Publius

    July 22, 2010 at 12:25 pm

    Dipsy –

    Really? I mean…REALLY? You don’t know why the Cards need Oswalt? EVERY TEAM could use a front-line guy like Oswalt. A rotation of Carpenter/Wainwright/Oswalt/Garcia is a rotation that is unparalleled in depth, especially in a 5- or 7-game series. That pitching staff has AT LEAST this year and next, possibly even 2012, together, and could make the Cards an impending force for the next 3 years, regardless the offense (which still has Holliday, Pujols and a blossoming Colby Rasmus). Come 2012, the Cards will probably begin rebuilding anyways, considering how Pujols and Holliday will be 34 by then.

    As for that proposed “deal”, no way Houston takes Lidge and Kendrick, using Happ as a centerpiece, unless Philly eats all contracts involved or the prospect is someone like Singleton, whom hopefully Rube is loath to give up.

  38. The Second John

    July 22, 2010 at 12:32 pm

    Dipsy, they would never go for that trade. That’s a terrible trade for them.
    They would probably go for a package like this:

    Oswalt

    for

    Brody Colvin
    Harlod Garcia
    Jay Happ

  39. Don M

    July 22, 2010 at 12:34 pm

    Kendrick and Happ can’t get you ANYTHING … let alone Lidge, who they already traded away .. and Galvis, when they have Manzella now, and their #2 prospects, is a SS

  40. Paul Boye

    July 22, 2010 at 12:35 pm

    Oswalt and Lindstrom for Happ, Kendrick, Lidge and Freddy Galvis.

    Welp, I’ve seen it all, now.

  41. The Dipsy

    July 22, 2010 at 12:36 pm

    Well Publius, two things: Jaime Garcia is a great third starter. assuming that they would go with a four man rotation in the playoffs, the Cards would be the ones looking for the Guthries of the world. Roy Oswalt at 16m is a luxury for them. They have to resign Pujols. I don’t think they do that.

    I think Kendrick has value. You don’t obviously. He is still only twenty five years old. If you believe Happ will be a poor man’s Andy Pettite over the span of his career then all of a sudden you may be overpaying for Oswalt, considering how much he has to leave Houston. He is not staying. Wade wants him out and he wants out.

    Now, we’ll take the 30 year old Lindstrom, who is having a good year, and you take Lidge to offset salaries a bit. And you can have Galvis, Mayberry, Savery, Carpenter, blah blah.

    Under normal circumstances, I say that the Astros would not make this deal, but given the need to dump Oswalt, they don’t have a lot of choices nor many teams to deal with. I think they’re mind set is that they make the best deal they can.

    The Dipsy

  42. Ted Bell

    July 22, 2010 at 12:36 pm

    St. Louis has already Carpenter, Wainwright and Garcia – which is a formidable post-season rotation. They may like to have Oswalt, but they’re also well aware that they’ll be paying Pujols $30 million a year in 2012 (I don’t see any scenario where they’d let him walk…it would be a PR nightmare). I don’t see them making a move for Oswalt.

    Houston would never take Lidge back…that’s just wishful thinking.

    I don’t want Oswalt here if it means picking up the 2012 option. It’s really time for RAJ to start making this team younger.

    Domonic Brown has played his last couple of games in LF. Change is coming…

    I’m Ted Bell.

  43. The Dipsy

    July 22, 2010 at 12:38 pm

    Second John – THAT’S too much to give up.

    The Dipsy

  44. Paul Boye

    July 22, 2010 at 12:40 pm

    If giving up Colvin, Garcia and Happ is too much, you’re not getting a deal done.

  45. Philly Texan

    July 22, 2010 at 12:41 pm

    I don’t know why St. Louis would trade for Oswalt. They have three terrific starters already.

    They need offense and bullpen help. Their lineup is worse than ours. They’re scoring runs right now, so they’re winning. But that won’t last. That patchwork lineup they’ve built around Pujols won’t get it done in the playoffs and they’ll lose games 3-2, just like last season to the Dodgers.

    I’d love to get Ellsbury.

    Can he stay healthy?

  46. beanzalo

    July 22, 2010 at 12:41 pm

    You know, other than giving up Cliff Lee, on paper, Rubin did everything right. They went into this season with their best lineup of the past 5 years, they bolstered the bench. The starting lineup looked good, not great but very good. Relievers were in question much as they have been. Who knew there would be so many injuries? Who knew the team would forget how to hit?

    In the first month of the season, they looked unstopable, then they lost their minds! I really don’t blame Amaro (‘cept for letting Lee go). Now it’s time to rise to the occasion and see what he can do to make this all work. Things don’t look very good for getting Oswalt or Haren. I don’t think we’ll see a new starter.

    We will see Werth go however. Probably not a bad idea overall, but you give up the right handed bat. We need to see the kid up here NOW. No waiting it out like they did with Howard.

  47. Chris.I

    July 22, 2010 at 12:44 pm

    Oswalt is good, but in all honesty…I wouldn’t want him here if he doesn’t want to pitch here. I hope St.Louis signs Oswalt, gets knocked out the 1st round in the playoffs by the Braves. Besides I don’t understand how the Cards plan on getting Oswalt AND signing Pujols? I just don’t understand the logic

  48. Publius

    July 22, 2010 at 12:47 pm

    Why do people think that 3 excellent starting pitchers is “enough” when you can have 4?

    Also, re: Pujols, if the Cards are continually competitive, and with Oswalt they definitely will be, they can probably afford to open up their pursestrings a bit more and expand their payroll, especially when it’s the face of the franchise.

  49. The Second John

    July 22, 2010 at 12:47 pm

    If that’s too much, then what would you give up? The deal that you proposed earlier isn’t going to get anything done.

  50. Don M

    July 22, 2010 at 12:47 pm

    Jaime Garcia has been great … he’s also unproven … and is already way over his previous high in innings pitched

    he’s at 110 right now.. LaRussa said in May “We haven’t said right now that he’s not throwing more than 175 innings or something”

    weird that he mentioned ANYTHING at all about 175 innings, so you would have to think that’s on the minds of the Cardinals already..

    Combined with the fact that Carpenter and Wainwright didn’t get it done in the playoffs last year, and I think you can definitely see why they’d want to add Oswalt to the staff


    Can we trade the Astros Raul Ibanez for Carlos Lee?

    Lee makes $18.5 M per season the next 3 years, which sucks .. but if they picked up $5 M of that each year, is that useful? Saves them for a crappy contract, gives us a legit power threat from LF .. instead of $55 M for Lee, they would only pay Ibanez $12 M + $15 M for Lee = $27 M

  51. Chuck

    July 22, 2010 at 12:49 pm

    Right …the same logic as the Phillies having both Howard and Oswalt….and Pujols will command MORE $$.

  52. Philly Texan

    July 22, 2010 at 12:49 pm

    The recent quest to get Oswalt makes the Lee trade look very interesting.

    Why exactly did we trade Lee?

    Was it for prospects? Well, we’re looking to trade prospects for starting pitching now.

    Was it about money? Doesn’t seem like it, since the Phils seem willing to add Oswalt’s $16 million per year or whatever it is.

    Makes me wonder if it wasn’t personal….like the Phillies were insulted that Lee shot down their contact offer and promptly shipped him out of town. If Amaro let personal feelings get involved, then that’s unforgivable.

    Maybe it was bout prospects. I dunno.

    But their pursuit of Oswalt and his huge contract puts a lie to the claim that the Phils were too cheap to keep Lee. (unless they’re just desperate now).

  53. Publius

    July 22, 2010 at 12:51 pm

    Carlos Lee is one of the worst 5 players in the bigs now, going by WAR. He’s actually worse, more expensive and a longer commitment than Raul.

  54. Chuck

    July 22, 2010 at 12:52 pm

    I like that Carlos Lee/Raul Ibanez idea. Would the Astros do that????

  55. Nick.F

    July 22, 2010 at 12:53 pm

    No matter what they do or don’t do via trades, this team does not have the look of a winner this year. It is VERY hard to do what they are trying to do (i.e., get to three World Series in a row). Sometimes in baseball, things just don’t go your way, and all the Cliff Lee’s in the world ain’t gonna change that. It’s a funny game, this baseball.

  56. Chuck

    July 22, 2010 at 12:54 pm

    Who cares what the reason was. Cliff Lee is gone. Time to move on, guys. Seriously.

  57. Don M

    July 22, 2010 at 12:57 pm

    I know that Lee sucks.. but paying him $13 M plus $400,000 would be better for both our PURSE, and our LINEUP than having Ibanez at $12 M and Werth at $?? aka Brown at $400,000 and have an entirely left-handed lineup

    ….
    Who are the BEST players going by WAR ?

    If its anyone other than Josh Hamilton, Miguel Cabrera, Josh Johnson, etc… then I dont want to hear it

  58. Philly Texan

    July 22, 2010 at 12:58 pm

    Forget Carlos Lee. He’s a 34-yr-old outfielder who’s numbers are declining. He’s hitting .236 this year, which last time I checked is WORSE than Ibanez.

    If we lose Werth (by trade or FA) we can find a RH bat in the offseason that will give us better production for a lot less money than Carlos Lee.

  59. Pickles Rarnt

    July 22, 2010 at 12:58 pm

    Fausto Carmona and Jhonny Peralta….remember those names. Don’t be a bit surprised to see them in Phillies uniforms.

  60. Don M

    July 22, 2010 at 1:00 pm

    I think I read yesterday that Vernon Wells is still due like $86 Million over the next 4 years !!!???

    that’s WAY over budget, but I think the only way to get rid of Ibanez would be to trade him to a team looking to escape a lengthy contract (Carlos Lee, Vernon Wells, etc..) … to get a Right bat playing LF, and having Brown in RF is the ideal situation ..

    I really would look into Francouer …. or crazy, but Magglio Ordonez is due to make big money next year and the Tigers are always looking to dump salary

  61. Publius

    July 22, 2010 at 1:03 pm

    Don M. –

    Carlos Lee is a worse option than Raul Ibanez. Let that sink in. He’s a worse player on a worse contract. It would be a massive hole in our lineup, an unmitigated disaster defensively, and would be under our control for longer and thus another eaten roster spot.

    In short, let it go. A bad LHB is better than a travesty of an RHB.

    Also, MLB leaders in WAR are Justin Morneau, Josh Hamilton, Carl Crawford, Matt Holliday and Robinson Cano for hitters, and Josh Johnson, Roy Halladay and Francisco Liriano for pitchers.

    So I guess you do want to hear it.

  62. Philly Texan

    July 22, 2010 at 1:04 pm

    I think the reason for the Cliff Lee trade is important.

    Look, I’m not one of these guys who thinks Lee would have solved our problems. He can’t hit, after all. We may have won 2-3 more games, but that’s it.

    I’ve refused to discuss Cliff Lee all season. I have moved on. But the Phils desperate quest for starting pitching at the deadline makes the Lee trade very relevant again. Why exactly was he traded. What motivated someone to trade a top 10 pitcher, then six months later go on a quest for another top-10 pitcher. Very strange maneuvering.

    The reasons behind the Lee trade tell us a lot about the Phils FO and what they may do in the future. I’m not pining for Lee. It’s over. He’s gone.

    But understanding WHY he was traded—when we would end up needing pitching—is very relevant.

  63. Bruce

    July 22, 2010 at 1:07 pm

    With the Phillies’ record at 48-46 and trailing the Braves by 7 games and no indication of changing course, I wonder if GM Amaro is having second thoughts and reevaluating his priorities regarding the trade deadline. Is it worth the probability of losing more prospects and covering a costly contract of Oswalt or Haren? As a few here suggested, this season may be a lost cause and should focus on 2011. There are “stories” indicating that Phillies management reportedly balked at Oswalt’s demand to have his option included and it would suggests GM Amaro is less inclined now to make a move (in light of the team’s standing in the division). I do think Amaro wants a “salary dump” with Werth and hopes to get something in return that would help the team next year.

  64. therookie300

    July 22, 2010 at 1:15 pm

    Beanzalo said it best. Before the season started this was best team that was fielded in the last four years. Nobody could’ve predicted it would’ve went awry like it has. Amaro can only do so much. He can’t prevent injuries or hit the ball for them. At least he’s actively trying to do something to benefit the team instead of just sitting around. And remember Amaro’s got a budget to follow. He doesn’t set it, it is set for him. It’s his job to somehow make the best team out of available budget funds. He’s made mistakes, but what GM doesn’t…

  65. Don M

    July 22, 2010 at 1:18 pm

    I DO want to hear it …. someone had said earlier this year that according to WAR, Ryan Howard was like the 8th best NL firstbaseman ?? ….which made me think the rankings were terrible.

    ….
    Carlos Lee is a career .288 hitter … is he injured this year? The product of being in one of the league’s worst lineups?

    Obviously he’s not the solution to all life’s problems, but I wouldn’t put all my stock in the fact that his average is down this year… I just dont think you can move Ibanez otherwise, and I think that adding another Lefty, to this current lineup will handucff us

    (again, unless maybe Rollins bats 5th??)

  66. Don M

    July 22, 2010 at 1:19 pm

    Publius .. got a link for the WAR rankings?

  67. Lefty

    July 22, 2010 at 1:20 pm

    Trade Cholly for a little league manager who knows when to pinch hit for his pitcher who has a 1 in 10 chance of putting a ball in play, and has proven over and over again that he will implode on the mound after the 7th inning. Throw in RAJ for a hot dog vendor.

  68. The Second John

    July 22, 2010 at 1:25 pm

    Justin Mourneau has the best WAR in baseball. Josh Hamilton is second.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2010&month=0

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    July 22, 2010 at 1:34 pm

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  70. The Dipsy

    July 22, 2010 at 1:34 pm

    Apparently, Jimmy can’t bat anywhere right now. Don M. – WAR is useful for some things but comes up woefully short for others.

    RE: Lee. If were are looking at reasons, RAJ chose Halladay and rightfully so. Then he is looking at a real good – good enough to win the pennant – rotation. Keeping Lee would have been awesome but without him we were gonna be fine. Thats what they thought, that what I thought, its probably what most of us thought. RAJ has to answer to owners who gotta hold down the bottom line beacuse that what owners do. They wouldn’t let him keep both Lee and Halladay so what was he supposed to do? Not trade for Halladay? Forget it.

    This team as constructed at the beginning of the season was one we were all excited about. Then EVERYONE got hurt or played like shit. I hate to say it but sometimes it just works out like that. So now Ruben has to scramble to fill holes for reasons that were not of his making. He’s not to blame.

    Fans. BAD SEASON. And everyone shares the blame in equal proportion, in my view.

    The Dipsy

  71. NickFromGermantown

    July 22, 2010 at 1:34 pm

    No offense to the guys that run this site, but I have to say that Phillies Nation is becoming more unreliable than Danys Baez. Get the server fixed or more powerful already!

  72. Bob

    July 22, 2010 at 1:35 pm

    So now people don’t want to trade for Oswalt because of a 16 million dollar option in 2012? But some of the same would be happy to hand over 20 million a year for Cliff Lee?

    Biggest difference is that Oswalt would be in Phils control through AT LEAST next season and then probably 2012.

    2.5 seasons of Oswalt > 1 underachieving (so far) season with Cliff Lee.

    Oswalt is not the end all be all of the teams problems but maybe it would be a jolt.

    That all said i dont think it’s gonna be a blockbuster. Probably a Sheets and a trade of Werth for a reliever/bat (I hope if they do indeed move Werth)

    Something needs to be done and it will be. Just waiting to see what it is.

  73. Don M

    July 22, 2010 at 1:35 pm

    JUST when I thought maybe these WAR rankings were onto something ..

    I saw that Andres Torres on the giants is ranked ahead of Chase Utley, both of whom are ranked ahead of Ryan Howard

    Torres is hitting .274, 8 HRs, 34 RBI, 49 Runs, 17 Steals
    Utley .277, 11 HRs, 37 RBI, 49 Runs, 5 Steals (okay I can see this one)

    but
    Howard is hitting .299, 22 HRs, 75 RBI, 61 Runs

  74. Philly Texan

    July 22, 2010 at 1:37 pm

    Don,
    If Carlos Lee were 27, I’d be inclined to ignore his numbers this years.

    But when a heavy-set 34-year-old has a drop off like that, I tend to think his best days are long behind him and he’s soon to be retired.

    If we want a slightly overpaid, aging RH bat, how about Mike Lowell?

  75. Chris.I

    July 22, 2010 at 1:38 pm

    I wouldn’t mind having Elsbury over Upton, but in all honesty I’d rather deal with the Rays for either Davis, or Shields for Werth (Though I know they wont deal Davis). Its the only trade that sounds reasonable, and would benefit both teams. I just don’t think we really need another OF when we have Brown.

  76. Geoff

    July 22, 2010 at 1:40 pm

    Ok its time to weight in. Leave the Cliff Lee stuff alone. The mere fact that RAJ is going after a frontline pitcher IS an admission that it was a mistake.

    Now, I am not impressed by Haren, he would be our third best starter because he is NOT better than Cole Hamels, not even close.

    Pretty much we have to hope Oswalt changes his mind and decides to come here. If he does it would be Happ & prospects. What other starters are openly available anyway this year aside from those two?
    And no, I do not think Brett Myers would really want to come back given the fact that they put him on the pay no mind list after his return from injury.

    I would send Werth to the Rays for Wade Davis, because clearly the Rays would not trade away BJ Upton, would they? Could they be that insane? I dobt it.

  77. Philly Texan

    July 22, 2010 at 1:41 pm

    Well put, Dipsy.

    The start of the season seems a long time ago. I thought the Phils were unstoppable then. Especially the way they started the season.

    But that’s baseball, I guess. Injuries and down years and fluke plays. It’s a cruel game sometimes….

  78. Geoff

    July 22, 2010 at 1:41 pm

    Don..I learned a while ago to ignore the latest ranking systems that come out. The simple statistics are more than enoguh to tell the story.

  79. Paul Boye

    July 22, 2010 at 1:51 pm

    The thing you have to remember with WAR is that it takes defense AND position into account. RBI and runs scored mean next to nothing. Howard has a good average, but isn’t walking and as such, his OBP is not that great compared to other 1B.

    OBP is actually more important than average. Think about it: “on base” means “not making outs,” not just “getting hits.” So if Howard has a .300 average, great. But if his OBP is TENTH among N.L. first basemen, with the less-than-stellar D he plays at the easiest position on the field, you can see why he’s rated lower.

  80. Chris.I

    July 22, 2010 at 1:58 pm

    Playing the Cards at this particular moment during all these trade talks isn’t helping one bit either…Who would you rather play for? Someone who sweeps a team or the team thats been sweeped? Bad timing

  81. Don M

    July 22, 2010 at 1:59 pm

    Right.. but I also know that I’d rather have Ryan Howard than Bobby Abreu … despite the fact that Abreu has a higher OBP%

  82. Don M

    July 22, 2010 at 1:59 pm

    It sounds like WAR wants you to get on base … but doesn’t give credit to the guys that actually manufacture the runs

    or score the runs ?

  83. George

    July 22, 2010 at 2:00 pm

    When Lee was traded, the Phils had a healthy Happ, so Lee was used to gain prospects for the future. They need pitching now because Happ is unhealthy, and now Moyer is also down. The two are unrelated.

    Amaro is clearly looking toward the future when he talks about the “right pitcher.” Lee wouldn’t have been an option for 2011 due to his impending free agency and likely huge salary. Both Oswalt and Haren will make far less next year. Amaro would be foolish to trade for someone not under team control; he’d also be foolish to guarantee the option on a pitcher as old as Oswalt.

    I also don’t think anyone will give a lot for Werth, because he, too, won’t be under team control.

    Trades for decent players are never easy, and I don’t think fans should jump all over Ruben if he can’t get one done.

  84. Don M

    July 22, 2010 at 2:03 pm

    I also know that they give the wrong players ERRORS a lot of times…

    like last night when Ruiz throws to 1st.. hits Cody Ransom right in the glove, but Ransom doesn’t catch it … and Ruiz is charged with an ERROR .. which has happened with Howard on throws to 2nd base on more than one occassion

  85. Ted Bell

    July 22, 2010 at 2:04 pm

    “So now people don’t want to trade for Oswalt because of a 16 million dollar option in 2012? But some of the same would be happy to hand over 20 million a year for Cliff Lee?”

    Actually, I think there was a large contingent of fans (like myself) that wanted Lee for $9 million in 2010 and then let him walk after this year.

    I’m Ted Bell.

  86. Chuck

    July 22, 2010 at 2:05 pm

    How is Amaro going after a frontline pitcher an “admission that it (trading lee) was a mistake”??

    Ruben did what he thought was right then….and he doing the same now.

    It’s like Pat Gallen said yesterday when he used the phrase “moving with the market”

  87. Bruce

    July 22, 2010 at 2:10 pm

    Hey Paul Boyle, I’ll take Howard over any 1st baseman (with possible exception of Pujols) for my team. Every year he puts up monster stats for production. Any manager will tell you that producing RBIs is most important for the team. In the “year of the pitcher” Howard again leads in the all important RBI category (75) and currently 2nd in HRs (22). He has made major strides in making consistent contact in his goal for a .300 BA. Cutting down on strikeouts and now FOURTH in total hits among NL hitters. And we know he has made improvements in fielding as well. Who knows, there may come a day he gets his “gold glove”.

  88. George

    July 22, 2010 at 2:10 pm

    I wish someone had told me earlier that first base was the easiest position. I would have felt so much more superior when I was sent to play right field in Little League.

  89. Don M

    July 22, 2010 at 2:13 pm

    Instead of having

    Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Happ, Moyer for 2010 .. and then

    Halladay, Hamels, Happ, Kendrick, __?__ for 2011

    Amaro thought that:
    Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, Happ, Moyer for 2010
    and Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, Happ, Kendrick (plus two pitching prospects for Lee) in 2011 would be the best plan to have a good rotation now, and good rotation later

    if Hamels, Myers, Blanton, Moyer was good enough in 2008

    then Halladay, Hamels, Blanton (Happ/Moyer/Kendrick) should be good enough in 2010 ….. at least on paper

  90. George

    July 22, 2010 at 2:14 pm

    Not only is Howard driving in runs, he’s doing it with fewer men on base this year.

  91. Chuck

    July 22, 2010 at 2:15 pm

    And Ted Bell…..you wouldn’t be happy with that scenario now….because Cliff Lee would not be able to solve the offensive issues or play the positions of players that are/were injured this season.

    AND he would be walking at the end of the year.

    I’m pretty sure you and the “large contingent” youy speak of would be b*tching about that.

  92. Publius

    July 22, 2010 at 2:17 pm

    Bruce, we discussed Howard ad nauseum when he got his extension, so let’s not drudge up those same arguments.

    As for value for Oswalt, keep in mind that the Cardinals are considering offering their top prospect, Shelby Miller, for him, so throwing garbage together and hoping the ‘Stros will take it simply won’t fly.

  93. Bruce

    July 22, 2010 at 2:26 pm

    @ Publius: Hey, I’m simply stating what a manager most desired out of his clean-up hitter. Production=RBIs. And Howard goes to the top of the list in the all important RBI category. Howard has been most productive every single year. There is no denying that fact.

  94. The Dipsy

    July 22, 2010 at 2:27 pm

    The Cardinals will not give them Shelby Miller. In fact, the won’t even trade for him. Further, I will go as far as saying that this is all a head fake by Oswalts agent to scare the Phils into picking up that option lest they lose him to another team.

    The Dipsy

  95. George

    July 22, 2010 at 2:31 pm

    The Cards are “considering” throwing Miller in. That doesn’t mean they will.

    But that also doesn’t mean the Astros will trade Oswalt for trash. The only way this could work would be a three team deal, probably built around Werth, because beyond Brown, the rest of the Phils’ prospects are too far down in the minors.

  96. Publius

    July 22, 2010 at 2:34 pm

    Dipsy –

    There are too many reporters saying the same thing. The Cardinals interest is very real and they’re further along than the Phils are. I think we can rule out “scare tactic” and instead its simply 2 teams very serious on Oswalt trying to create the best package.

  97. Don M

    July 22, 2010 at 2:38 pm

    Yea I think the Phillies are having trouble getting “a lot” for Werth … and there plan was to flip whatever they got to the Astros for Oswalt

    IF he accepted a trade to the Phillies .. which he would only do if they picked up that extra year at $16 M …


    I think he’s off the radar right now ..

    Shields has a pretty low contract with 3 option-years tacked onto it … so if they think he has any upside, I think the Rays are more willing to move him than they are Wade Davis .. ( I had brought up UPTON before because they are tired of his average being so low, and waiting for him to breakout) .. maybe a change of scenery is all he needs

    I would take him over Ellsbury, but either would be an amazing return for Werth

  98. Manny

    July 22, 2010 at 2:38 pm

    KEEP HAPP!

    I rather have a solid pitcher under team control for many years than yet another veteran who’s going to handcuff this team’s payroll in the near-future.

    We’re not scoring runs, that’s the problem!

  99. Chuck

    July 22, 2010 at 2:48 pm

    But is Happ solid? Is he healthy? Or is he damaged goods at this point?

  100. Lefty

    July 22, 2010 at 2:48 pm

    The fact that its Oswalt’s home town is what scares me, and should scare the Phils because it is real. He may very well give up the option to play for the team he grew up loving.

  101. Manny

    July 22, 2010 at 3:02 pm

    He is solid and healthy. I don’t know how many more seasons he needs to pitch to prove everybody wrong!

    At the very least he’s earned the right to pitch for this team after his injury. Let’s see what he has. DO NOT TRADE.

  102. Josh

    July 22, 2010 at 3:04 pm

    I can’t believe people are still talking about Cliff Lee.

    Don’t worry everyone! I have a plan! All I need a DiLorean and a flux capacitor. I’ll be right back!

    MOVE ON! GO PHILS!

  103. Manny

    July 22, 2010 at 3:07 pm

    PLUS,

    JA HAPP…

    WHY SELL LOW?

  104. Geoff

    July 22, 2010 at 3:08 pm

    I do agree…did not realize Uptons average was like that. Well, we’ll take him if they don’t want him.

    It does not look like the Cardinals want to pay Oswalts salary in full. Though he wants to go there, I would still say We have a chance at him. JA Happ, Anthony Gose, Jarrod Cosart would go a long way to getting it done. You know we can afford it, the excuse of that rubbish about not being able to afford it is pretty much gone now. But in order to keep it within reason, I would rather spend 16M on pitching than give it to Jayson Werth. So it does make sense.

  105. Chuck

    July 22, 2010 at 3:11 pm

    Again, though….16M for a guy that plays in 35 games….or less than 16 (cause Werth WILL get less) for a guy that plays everyday??

    Just askin’

  106. Gary B

    July 22, 2010 at 3:12 pm

    Was talking with a Red Sox fan here in the office and was told Ellsbury is not the most popular guy in the dugout, he’s rumored to not be the best “team player”. Anybody else hear that about the guy, although his numbers do look pretty nice to lead off.

  107. Geoff

    July 22, 2010 at 3:19 pm

    I was never a big fan of Ellsbury, not really ever convinced of his legitimacy

  108. Pingback: Good News | Current News

  109. Paul Boye

    July 22, 2010 at 5:10 pm

    Bruce,

    I know how to spell my own name. There is no L in my last name.

  110. Don M

    July 22, 2010 at 5:34 pm

    that would be the reason they want to move Ellsbury … because he doesn’t yet make much money, and he’s a pretty good leadoff man

    the ONLY reason they’d move him is to get him off the team on purpose. .. getting Werth in return would give them a nice RH bat

  111. Pingback: Gameday: Phillies (48-46) at Cardinals (54-41) | Phillies Nation

  112. karen

    July 22, 2010 at 6:53 pm

    I don’t get the never ending obsession with pitching. Ask cole and roy how far pitching has gotten this team…..they need offense…this is not something that getting a pitcher will produce

  113. Bruce

    July 22, 2010 at 7:14 pm

    Sorry Paul BOYE. My apology for misspelling your name. I need new glasses I guess (chuckles).

  114. roy jennings

    July 23, 2010 at 1:28 pm

    KEEP WERTH

  115. karen

    July 25, 2010 at 10:11 am

    I think that regardless what comes out of these trades…..amaro and the phillies will forever be remembered for giving lee to seattle and then having to trade more prospects/players for another pitcher at trade deadline…esp if that pitcher is oswalt with a big contract

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