In Amazement: Phillies 13-Games Over .500 – Phillies Nation

In Amazement: Phillies 13-Games Over .500

Excuse me if I’m a bit stunned by this seemingly underwhelming stat, but the Phillies are at a season-best 13-games over the .500 mark. It’s a plateau some believed would not come this year with the way things had been progressing.

Consider this: They are two games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East, but if you’ve been paying attention to the rest of the league, they are also two games behind the Texas Rangers who have been one of the most productive teams all season. Hell, a little over a month ago – July 7 to be exact – the Phillies sat six back in the division and were three behind the second place Mets. Now, the Mets are nine back in the NL East, SEVEN games behind the Phillies. Amazing.

Obviously, everyone should be enthralled by the team at this point. They’ve overcome adversity at every stage of the season, only to position themselves for a playoff run. A month ago, few believed a rebirth like this was possible, but here we are – witnessing an epic revival of a team gasping for air, hooked to a ventilator a mere 30 days prior.

With the good news of being just two behind the Braves comes more good news. Shane Victorino is about to begin a rehab assignment and could be back by Friday. Chase Utley has stated he should be back by months-end and has actually added three or four pounds of muscle since hitting the DL. Ryan Howard has been walking with a bit of a limp and still has swelling, but he too believes he can be back quickly. The makeshift roster will soon turn into a full collection of the talent that made back-to-back World Series appearances. Add them to a red-hot Raul Ibanez and Carlos Ruiz, a .300-hitting Jayson Werth, and a pitching staff that has more than held it’s own – both starters and relievers, and you’ve got yourself a contender.

So, pardon me if I’m a little thrown off by their 62-49 record, which is just one game off the pace of a year ago and a game better than their record in the World Series winning season of 2008. Perhaps I shouldn’t be so caught off-guard by what has occurred. This is a team that has scratched and clawed for three-plus seasons, I guess we shouldn’t have expected anything differently this time around.



  1. Chuck

    August 9, 2010 at 12:04 pm

    All we have to do from now til Sept 1….is tread water. Just stay 1-3 games back. Then….Utley and Howard will be back and the Phillies SHOULD be fully healthy….and poised for a Sept sprint to the finish line.

    (We could use a lefty out of the pen, too. Bastardo?? he’s coming up??)

  2. Wis

    August 9, 2010 at 12:08 pm

    How sweet tit is!

    I want every fool on here to take back what they said about Rauuul and Werth a mere 3-4 weeks ago.

    You fickles need to realize everyone in baseball goes through peeks and valleys. except maybee Dobbs.

  3. Wis

    August 9, 2010 at 12:09 pm


  4. Bart Shart

    August 9, 2010 at 12:12 pm

    I take back what I said about Raul. I admit that his hitting has kept us afloat. ANd I did think he was on a very sharp decline. NICE WORK RAUL !!!!

  5. Manny

    August 9, 2010 at 12:17 pm

    I know, right?! It’s amazing Pat.

    And some were calling for Werth to be traded, or Raul released… yikes.

  6. Wis

    August 9, 2010 at 12:19 pm

    all is so forgivin! 8)


    August 9, 2010 at 12:22 pm


  8. Manny

    August 9, 2010 at 12:23 pm

    Wis: Dobbs too goes through peaks and valleys.. haha Just give him a few more at-bats! He’s definitely NOT a sub-.200 hitter.

  9. Chuck

    August 9, 2010 at 12:27 pm

    I’m not trying to be an a$$….but count me as one of the ones who WASN’T calling for Raul or Werth to be released or traded.

    Raul was one of the main reasons we made the postseason last year….and he very well might be THIS year as well.

    Jayson Werth is now hitting .301 !!!! I still think 25 HRs and 90 RBIs are within reach for him. If you combine that with a .280 – .300 avg….that’s a pretty good season!!

  10. Jeff of Nova

    August 9, 2010 at 12:28 pm

    I think when, Vic and Ryan come back that will be the end of Dobbs be honest with you, Sweeney is a better hitter, and Gload takes Dobbs lefty spot. Ben is there and Valdez when Utley is back and of course schneider, guessing Dominic will stay up through the regular season then be on stand by like Lou Marsen was. the year we won

  11. Wis

    August 9, 2010 at 12:31 pm

    manny is right. I don’t know why I dislike him so much. we all have em, I guess.

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  13. bfo_33

    August 9, 2010 at 12:43 pm

    Big credit has to go to Rube also. The 2010 injury bug is as bad as the Mets 2009 – the big difference is the Phils had more depth in starting pitching, and a far better bench (not great at pinch hitting, but Valdez, Gload, Ben Fran, Schneider & Sard., Ransom, have all filled in nicely. I’ll also go down as being someone who has supported Ibanez, but critical of Werth at times. Victorino coming back – not sure it makes the team any better. I’m pretty good with Werth in Center, Ib in left, Brown or Fransico in right. It’ll be great to get Howard and a rested bulked up Utley back by Sept.

    With the exception of a quick trip to CitiField, home until the last week of the month. Phils have one of the best home records in the majors. They should be able to keep it close, and may actually make up some ground before the west coast swing. Who’d thunk it?

  14. NickFromGermantown

    August 9, 2010 at 1:02 pm

    Isn’t it amazing? Our expectations are so high that this season feels like a failure so far even though it clearly is not. That horrific slump has tainted our view I feel. Quite frankly, the grit and resolve of this team has shown through. They could have collapsed, but did not.

    The 2010 Philadelphia Phillies are a remarkable story. Let’s hope they take what they’ve done as inspiration and make it that much more remarkable with a World Series win.

  15. Chuck

    August 9, 2010 at 1:04 pm

    I’ll tell you why I dislike Dobbs so much…

    Case in point:

    My 12-yr old son and I were at Spring Training this past March. We have this 2008 trophy photo that we’re trying to get all 25 WS roster guy’s signatures on.

    Dobbs is there, behind this fence and there’s maybe five of us asking him to sign. His response is something like, “Not now guys, I’m kinda busy” Ok….that’s fine. But he’s really arrogant about it as if to say, “Not now guys, get the eff out of my space.”

    Another time he’s leaving the complex, walking to his car. Same thing. Blows everybody off like he’s something really special. Gets into his fancy car and speeds off.

    Now I realize that players can’t sign all the time and that’s cool. In fact, it really pisses me off when fans expect too much out of some of these guys. I understand if players get burned out on all of that.

    But Dobbs is just a jerk about it. Walks aound like he’s hot sh*t all the time.

    The fact is, he SUCKS. Not that anybody should act arrogantly towards fans….but Dobbs doesn’t even have the goods to justify that kind of attitude.

    I’ll root for him as long as he’s wearing red pinstripes…but I can’t wait for him to be gone!!

  16. The Original Chuck P

    August 9, 2010 at 1:07 pm

    First… as soon as you count this team out, they prove you wrong.

    Second… the injuries may have saved our season. With all of the injuries, the other guys have found a new importance of playing with purpose and desperation. They realized the opportunity was there to solidify this “team” as one of the greatest of all time. I put team in quotation marks because, regardless how we might feel during some of their uber-slumps, Ibanez and Werth are important cogs in this machine. We all knew Ibanez was capable of putting up better numbers (he showed us that much) and many of us felt like it was a matter of time. Maybe some of us called for Werth to be traded to obtain a pitcher… the fact that we were able to keep him and still land a top tier pitcher made us all fist-pumping happy. He’s a great player.

    Third… the injuries are what made it imperative for us to get another starting pitcher without giving up Werth and because of that we’re better equipped to win another NL pennant. Gotta love this team…

    Does D-Bro stick once Vic gets back? I think that he will but it will be tough to see him sitting on the bench… I guess he’s given them enough at bats to feel good about where he’s at.

  17. psujoe

    August 9, 2010 at 1:27 pm

    Phils will have some tough decisions to make. If nobody else goes down and we assume Utley won’t be back untile after 9/1 they’ll have 2 guys on th eroster not eligible for the playoffs. I would guess one would be Dobbs and then they have to chose one of Herndon, Baez or Bastardo. I think they have to keep Sweeney and Brown up.

  18. Dave

    August 9, 2010 at 1:28 pm

    I love this team heading into September with a healthy lineup. My only concern (and it’s a big one) is Brad Lidge. I just don’t have any faith in this guy facing the Cardinals, Reds, Braves and especially the Yankees in a potential WS rematch. In fact, I don’t have faith in him facing The Sisters of the Poor in a softball game.


    August 9, 2010 at 1:37 pm


  20. psujoe

    August 9, 2010 at 1:43 pm

    I’d keep Brown up before Herndon. Herdon wouldn’t pitchint he playoffs unless the game is a lost cause. hate to lose him, but it’s about winning the WS.

  21. Wis

    August 9, 2010 at 1:49 pm

    chuck: thanks for sharing. The character of the phills squad is so remarkable it pains me to hear that Dobbs was like that. My brother in law met Charlie and some others at spring training this year and they were so happy to chat with him (he’s 21). I see most of them go out of their way for the youngsters (which they should in my OP) but to hear they did it for him was surprising.

    It is then with such poetic justice after hearing your story that I think about all the times I see Dobbs coming into the dugout and philly phans just ripping on him how much he sucks (lol)…I knew there was a reason I still did not care that they were being pretty harsh to one of our own.

    side note, I did actually feel sorry when I heard all the folks in sec102 on friday just relentlessly tormenting Jeff Francoeur…even after he gave a 10 yr old and obvious phillie fan, a foul ball. Reyes on the other hand can suck it!

  22. biz

    August 9, 2010 at 2:51 pm

    I’ve never bashed Raul because even when he was struggling he still gives you a quality at bat and takes pitches. Werth on the other hand is the worst hitter w/RISP in the NL. Solo HR’s and doubles with nobody on in a game you’re down by 3 runs don’t help. His RBI totals are pathetic for the 5 hitter on a team that is supposed to be an offensive force.

  23. Chuck

    August 9, 2010 at 2:52 pm

    Charlie’s a class act. He’s always the last one out to the parking lot in Clearwater and he’ll ALWAYS stop and chat with the fans and sign stuff. He’s great!! And you can tell he genuinely enjoys it. We’ve been down there three years now and it’s become a tradition to wait for Charlie at least one of the days we’re there.


    Brown will be valuable as a pinch runner in the playoffs and you need that righty bat off the bench with Sweeney. I know Ben Fran has that role, too but I would imagine that Sweeney would be the better pinch hitter.

  24. Chuck

    August 9, 2010 at 2:59 pm

    Original Chuck P….

    I agree with what you are saying about the injuries “saving the season.” It’s sort of a blessing in disguise in that these role players can step up and be part of a winning team, doing their part to keep it going.

    That’s why you have to feel so good for a guy like Mike Sweeney who comes here after playing on all those lousy teams and just wants to help out, do whatever he can to get the team some wins.

    Valdez has been sooo valuable as well. Great defense, can hit a little (nothing extravagent, but certainly better than Eric Bruntlett!), great attitude. Gload and Schneider, too, have been great additions.

  25. Chuck

    August 9, 2010 at 3:02 pm

    Vic going down was sort of a blessing as well. It put Werth into a position where he really needed to step up. It also took away any possibility of his being traded which has to help his overall mental state.

  26. Dave

    August 9, 2010 at 3:11 pm

    Chuck….maybe Dobbs is disgusted with Phillies fans riding him all the time. It’s a snowball effect…the worse he plays, the more criticism he gets. Thus, the worse he plays…etc, etc, etc. I’m not defending him by any means. Signing autographs is part of the job when you’re famous. I’m just playing devils advocate here. Hopefully, your son isn’t soured by all the Phightins!

  27. Andrew from Waldorf

    August 9, 2010 at 3:14 pm

    When Werth leaves we can all thank him for his service. But its needed.

  28. Lefty

    August 9, 2010 at 3:17 pm

    I am very proud of this team from the top down. I have in the past and will continue to be critical when I think it is deserved. I have never bashed Raul or any of the players individually. My beef is with Cholly when he makes costly and terrible late game decisions, some of which may yet be our undoing. I realize that it’s easy to challenge managerial decisions and less easy to make them. But sometimes he goes against basic baseball 101 principles to show his players (particularly his starting pitchers) that he believes in them. Maybe- that’s why he took us to two straight series, or maybe it would have happened anyway. But one way or the other I am very proud of the way these depleted Phils keep phitin’ !

  29. Chuck

    August 9, 2010 at 3:26 pm

    My son isn’t “soured” at all. He’s pretty in tune with stuff like that. In fact, HE’S the one that came up with the phrase about Dobbs “not having the goods.”

    Not bad for a 12-yr old!!


    in regards to Werth:

    The OTHER possibility is that we can thank him for his CONTINUED service when he’s patrolling the outfield for the Phillies next year. (Maybe I’m dreaming….maybe not.)

  30. The Original Chuck P

    August 9, 2010 at 3:27 pm

    I’m thrilled with the bench overall and the job that our reserves have done; Valdez has filled in admirably across the infield and Gload has been a decent pinch hitter. Schneider, when healthy, has also played a key role in several wins this season… all of those guys have stepped up which is what we have come to expect from our bench players, isn’t it?

  31. Dave

    August 9, 2010 at 3:30 pm

    Sounds like your son has a good head on his shoulders. Some kids have bad experiences with certain players and they generalize all players as being jerks. I think there’s still a few good ones around….Moyer, Sweeney, Halladay, etc. He’s right on with Dobbs not having the goods. Hopefully he won’t be re-signed after this year!

  32. The Original Chuck P

    August 9, 2010 at 3:35 pm

    Did anyone else hear Werth after the post game yesterday?

    They were asking him about the home run he hit (the one that seemed to carry forever… the one that left Carlos Beltran with his face against the wall and his tail between his legs) and Jayson sounded like he knew that this was where he wanted (and needed) to be… not just this year but every year. He said that this was the greatest place to play and that the fans were the best in baseball and that he loved Citizens Bank Park. It seemed like a candid moment with Jayson where he was really expressing how much he wanted to be here. There was a little sadness in his tone which tells me that he’s not quite sure that’s going to happen but there is not a doubt in my mind that he knows this is where he belongs.

  33. Andrew from Waldorf

    August 9, 2010 at 3:45 pm

    Werth is gone and another team will over pay him. The Phillies cannot AKA Rowand. Its the price of winning.

  34. Chuck

    August 9, 2010 at 3:47 pm

    Jayson WANTS to be here, but if some other team like the Red Sox offers him a contract that he can’t refuse ……and that the Phillies can’t touch….then I wouldn’t blame him one bit for walking.

  35. Chuck

    August 9, 2010 at 3:51 pm

    If Ruben Amaro, Jr. even so much as suggests that he wants to re-sign Greg Dobbs I will organize a protest march right down Broad St to Pattison Ave to the ballpark and straight to his office!!!

  36. therookie300

    August 9, 2010 at 3:54 pm

    “Solo HR’s and doubles with nobody on in a game you’re down by 3 runs don’t help.”

    Please explain this comment, biz. A solo shot would then make the game a two run game and getting a double gets the Phils a runner on base. So how do those things not help?

  37. The Original Chuck P

    August 9, 2010 at 4:11 pm

    Werth is a notch above Rowand for sure… Rowand was a speedy defensive minded outfielder who ran into a lot of home runs here; he benefitted from this park more than any other player, I think. Werth is different because he has more legitimate tools than Rowand; he’s a solid outfielder with good range (and a cannon for an arm), he’s a doubles machine and he’s always been a threat to hit a home run anywhere from left to left center (or dead center when the wind is blowing). He’s balancing out this year and hitting more to the opposite field and I expect him to do more of that as he gets stronger and older. Bottom line… he’s better than Rowand and worthy to be paid like a top tier outfielder. Rowand was a second tier outfielder at best who had a really good season and got paid like a top tier guy.

  38. The Original Chuck P

    August 9, 2010 at 4:30 pm

    I don’t know if the Red Sox will be in the mix… Ellsbury, Cameron, Kalish, McDonald, Nava and Drew are all still going to be there next year. Not to mention, Carl Crawford will be the big name free agent this off season, not Jayson Werth.

    The downside… this is Jayson’s only real chance to make big time money; money has to be his motivation, somewhat. I trust that the Phillies will do everything that they can to keep him but I know that it’s very unlikely that we’ll have the check with the biggest number on the table.

  39. jeff

    August 9, 2010 at 4:39 pm

    I think when all is said and done, werth will be back. brown will be a starter after raul is gone. brown is going to be a nice player but not a jason werth player. werth and the phillies will come to an agreement. he wants to be here. he wont get what he was looking for to start the season but it will be a fair deal. then raul leaves after next season and brown takes over. imo……this team has done a great job keeping up with everyone. we should be able to take 2 of 3 from LA. Hopefully Doc pitches better against the Mets in the next series. Just keeping winning. We are now like the Yankees. Anything but a World Series is a bad season. Its becoming that with this team. Fun.

  40. psujoe

    August 9, 2010 at 4:41 pm

    The only way Werth stays is if Ibanez goes. Not so far fetched an idea now. A lot of teams will take a serious look at a one year contract if Ibanez keeps raking like this.

  41. Chuck

    August 9, 2010 at 4:41 pm

    I hope that the Phillies at least don’t embarrass themselves with an their offer to Jayson.

    3 years guaranteed isn’t gonna cut it. Some teams will offer 5. I think the Phillies have to AT LEAST offer 4 guaranteed with some kind of 5th year option for Jayson to even connsider it.

    Dollars?? I have no idea any more. The market seems like it has softened a bit. But with a good last 50 games, Werth could put himself into a nice position for a nice contract.

    But it’s not gonna be Jason Bay-type money like was originally discussed earlier in the year. That dude was overpaid BIG-TIME. The Mutts are so stupid!!

  42. psujoe

    August 9, 2010 at 4:57 pm

    4 and an option sounds perfect. I agree that Werth isn’t going to see close to 16 per year. Mutts were Nutts. If the Phils can trade Raul I think they be in the ball park at around 4/48. I don’t see them going any more than that.

  43. The Dipsy

    August 9, 2010 at 4:59 pm

    psujoe – respected poster and good friend. No one will take Ibanez’s contract in the offseason unless we pay 3/4 of it. Thats better than the 9/10 of it that we would have had to pay three weeks ago. But that doesn’t mean that he’s not useful because he has been good. May I suggest the time to trade him is “now”? and move Brown over. That would be great. Jeff – Werth will not be back next year. He’s history. And Brown cannot wait out 2011 until Ibanez splits.

    That surprises me about Dobbs. Now I hate him, too. There is a good chance that he is bitter about the way he has been treated this year, being released and getting booed, etc. And of course, as we all know, the only way to remedy this is to act like a smack to well meaning kids who’s parents pay your salary.

    Need relievers! Need relievers! Need relievers!

    The Dipsy

  44. psujoe

    August 9, 2010 at 5:06 pm


    Probably true, but for any realistice shot at Werth Phils need to dump at least half of Rauls salary. Otherwise I just don’t think the payroll will be there.

  45. Chuck

    August 9, 2010 at 5:17 pm

    I REALLY wish we could move Vic. Look…he’s got a guaranteed salary, so teams know what they are dealing with for a few years out….they can plan. Teams like that when making trades.

    That way you re-sign Werth, put Brown in right and Ibby in left with Ben Fran again as your 4th guy.

    I’ve always said that Werth is MORE valuable to this team than Vic is. And nothing this year has caused me to change my mind. In fact, every time I see Vic POP OUT on the first pitch I feel more and more that way. He should be a table-setter and he’s not. For some reason he thinks he’s the next Babe Ruth…which he ain’t.

    I know that would upset a lot of the women and kids, I’m sorry, I’m just not a big Shane fan.

  46. psujoe

    August 9, 2010 at 5:20 pm

    Chuck, I’m good with the Vic option. He’ll make 7.5 next year. The Phillies run this year might impact the ability to move on the payroll. Going to be interesting.

  47. Bob in Bucks

    August 9, 2010 at 5:22 pm

    Good news! The Giants and Braves can both lose tonight!

  48. Chuck

    August 9, 2010 at 5:39 pm

    I know this might raise a few eyebrows….but I really think Raul is MORE valuable to this team right now than Shane is. And not just because Shane’s on the DL either. OVERALL….DL aside….Raul has had a better year and helped the Phillies win more games than Shane has.

    The Phillies got to the playoffs last year largely because of Raul’s contribution in the 1st half and very well may this year because of his contribution in the 2nd half.

    I’m not sure you can really say that about Shane. Yeah…he’s a good defensive CF….yada, yada, yada….and that’s not to be discounted.

    I just think HE can be replaced fairly easily and it should be considered…especially since it does seems like we are locked into Raul for next season (which may not totally be a bad thing)

  49. BostonKate

    August 9, 2010 at 6:05 pm


    Your son sounds like a smart guy! When the Phillies were here in Boston, there was a group of about 6 of us hoping to meet some of the players. Majority of us were in our early 20s, with the exception of one small child. Almost EVERY SINGLE player stopped to chat, if only for a second, except for Dobbs and Vic (not surprising).

    I’m not one to expect players to go out of their way and make every fan happy but he was almost rude about the fact that people just wanted a quick signature.

  50. Chuck

    August 9, 2010 at 6:22 pm

    Thanks for that B-Kate…

    Yeah, my son is pretty astute with a lot of stuff….and he knows his Phillies!! And , I’m not just saying that because he’s my son (well…maybe a little bit…).

    Bottom line is….Dobbs is a jerk. Vic can be that way too but I have noticed he’s signing more at the ballpark before games.

    And that’s all they need to do. Just sign a for a few people once in awhile and make some fans for life. Doesn’t have to be every day….that’s unrealistic. It’s really pretty simple. Nobody is asking any of these guys for the world.

    Like I said….I’ll root for anybody that’s wearing the Phils’ uniform…and that includes Greg Dobbs…….because that what we as fans do. Other than that I will be thankful not to have him on the Phillies team in the future. He’s a jackass and a lousy MLB player.


    August 9, 2010 at 6:42 pm

    i just saw on twitter that the phillies where the team that claimed adam dunn-WOW-ANYBODY ELSE SEEN THIS?????


    August 9, 2010 at 6:43 pm


  53. jeremy

    August 9, 2010 at 7:16 pm

    “Brown will not be a Werth” that has got to be one of the dumbest comments I’ve ever heard, you base that off of what exactly? A couple weeks of performance in his rookie year? The fact is Brown will end up being much bigger than Werth, bases on scouting reports he has the potential to be a super star. His power just started emerging this year. Let a player develop for crying outloud.

  54. jeff

    August 9, 2010 at 7:30 pm

    jeremy werth is a very special player. i dont think brown will get there. werth is also a righty. they will move victorino if they have too. werth is going nowhere.

  55. Brooks

    August 9, 2010 at 7:32 pm

    Does anyone have a definite on the return of Vic and what will be done with Brown?
    We cannot afford to give either Ibanez or Werth a blow anytime soon. Will Viic go back full time now?

  56. bacardipr05

    August 9, 2010 at 7:52 pm

    We need the Braves to start losing a few games for us…Come on Bravos you can do it…Utley will be back in time for Dodgers at end of month….Why all the hating on Victorino do you guys have short term memory Dayum…I hope Victorino gets back to his .290ish batting average….Brown is still developing yes he has great potential but so has many before him….Logic says moving Raul would be the safer bet…Keeping Victorino however Shane has to realize while he is a good all around athlete he is no home run hitter….in 2 weeks if Raul goes on a slump an Victorino come back to form you guys would flip flop….even if dom brown emerges to be a Star it most likely wont happen overnight it make sense for the Phils to keep a Veteran like Shane which has an affordable contract around….Peace!

  57. Manny

    August 9, 2010 at 8:44 pm

    Chuck: I definitely agree with both points you made (about moving Vic and Ibanez being more valuable).

    The biggest argument I would hear for keeping Shane long-term was that “he had the highest batting average on the team for 2 straight years”…but now that looks like it’s gonna change…

  58. Manny

    August 9, 2010 at 8:46 pm

    It’s a tough thing to say… cause I really LOVE our outfield.. but Dom Brown has to replace someone eventually… and I think it should be either Shane or Raul… hopefully not Werth who’s our only power RH bat.

  59. bacardipr05

    August 9, 2010 at 9:41 pm

    So keep an aging almost 40 year old just because Shane is having a mediocre year. Doesnt make any sense to me. So next year when Raul goes on his May thru August slump an Dom Brown is possibly struggling as he is still getting acclimated. Werth is goin to demand a lot of money I dont see him signing for anything less than 15mil a year especially in the Yanks are involved which is strong possibility. This is assuming he doesnt go into a long funk come September.

  60. MikeB.

    August 9, 2010 at 10:50 pm

    Houston with 6 runs in the 7th inning; Astros 10, Braves 4, in the 8th inning. Chicago ahead of San Fran., 2-0.

  61. shag beta sigma delta

    August 9, 2010 at 10:59 pm

    I have said it before and I will stand by it, if you can structure a 4-5 year deal for Jayson at an average 12-13 million, I think he would stay in Philly. Something like 4 years 50-52 million 12-12-13-14/15 with a 14/15 million 5th year option. That is pretty big money and doable for the Phillies. You lose Raul after next year and move Brown in there for pennies really, and when you have to start paying Jayson the bigger dollars Vic will be off the books too I think, and even JRoll might be retired. That leaves paying Ryan, Chase, and Jayson the big money, with Cole and Doc. I really think if you can structure it correctly Jayson would take 4 year 50 million to stay here. And then next year with that off his mind he will rock and roll

  62. Manny

    August 9, 2010 at 11:04 pm

    I think he would accept that too, shag. I wonder what kind of long-term deal has already been offered to Jayson? (the one he didn’t accept but hasn’t said no)… 3 years maybe?

  63. bacardipr05

    August 9, 2010 at 11:38 pm

    I would think if Ibanez has a decent year we probably could trade him next year it most likely be for a prospect or two we will of course have to eat at least a 1/4 of his salary. Im sure a contending AL team might find him useful as a DH hitter. You guys are forgetting after next year our Bullpen will have to be essentially rebuilt. Romero is gone Durbin is gone Contreras mostly like gone. I think this one of the reason they are holding on to Herndon in hopes that he could replace one of these guys an we can get him for cheap. That will leave Lidge , Madson and Ugh Baez. Im sure RAJ has to leave some salary open for this…

  64. jeff

    August 10, 2010 at 12:10 am

    victorino is a terrific fielder. a average hitter and bonehead on the bases. now he is trying to be jimmy and hit balls out. slap it the other way and get on base.

  65. Chuck

    August 10, 2010 at 7:20 am

    If RAJ can offer Danys Baez a stupid contract like he did….then he surely can do the same with Chad Durbin. Durbin has been one our most consistent bullpen guys….and not just this season. I guess the thinking is that Herndon will take that role and will be cheaper?

    Like I said before….the Phillies can’t embarrass themselves with their offer to Werth. Three years won’t do it. Four minimum….with a 5th year option. I like that 4/50 number that was suggested. It’s not “Jason Bay money” but it’s healthy. IF Jayson truly wants to stay, I would think that he would accept that. But who knows…..

  66. The Dipsy

    August 10, 2010 at 7:58 am

    We all liked the Baez signing. He had pedigree and he was only gonna be a middle reliever. So it didn’t work out? Lets outright him and move on. I think we move Shane in the off season.

    Chuck – I would never pay Jayson 12.5m a season. I don’t think he’s worth it based on his rather small body of work and his age.

    The Dipsy

  67. bfo_33

    August 10, 2010 at 8:24 am

    Dipsy, while I agree, someone will pay Werth 4/50. The Red Sox outfield is a mess (when not hurt, Cameron still plays “old”, the org doesn’t like Ellsbury, don’t really know why, 2011 is the last year of Drew’s contract, and either the Sox or Drew can opt out), and Werth would hit 60 doubles playing half his games in Fenway. Either the Phils have to put together something close, or they are going to lose him. I doubt that Werth would sign an incentive laden contract that would get him close if he performed when he could get guarenteed money.
    I like what I’ve seen in Brown so far, but he has a pretty long, loopy swing. Seems like pitchers would find a hole in his swing once they see him more (up and in?).

  68. Chuck

    August 10, 2010 at 8:58 am

    Dipsy, I think more than one team would pay Jayson 12.5.

    The Red Sox MIGHT pay MORE….because of the Sox’ needs you point out, bfo_33.

    I think Jayson IS worth between 10-12MM. Yes he’s got a relatively small body of work considering his age. But I think he’s just one of those “late bloomers”

    If we move Shane, who/what is it for?? Top shelf relief help would be at the top of my list.

  69. Brooks

    August 10, 2010 at 9:49 am

    Latest, Howard targets August 17th, vs Giants as his return date.
    This is all pretty great stuff – I’ll be down
    tonight cheering on Kendrick and you know, the great flotila padila – just had his decent game, he should be prime beef tonight, just sayin’

  70. The Original Chuck P

    August 10, 2010 at 10:17 am

    They don’t have to offer Durbin anything until after next season… he’s still under control until then.

    I think that Ibanez and his expiring contract and likely Type A status will be worth something on the open market… might not have to eat as much salary as we think.

  71. bfo_33

    August 10, 2010 at 10:21 am

    Besides Ibanez, Victorino has to be the most polarizing guy on the team. Seems like kids, grandmothers, and WebGem fans love him, while those who watch a lot of games are mostly frustrated with his complete lack of situational hitting, poor pitch selection, and ADD moments in the field and on the bases. Personally, I think he is the most expendable Phil (reasonable value for his current contract, but pretty easily replaced – see current win streak without him, or his typical at bat when he swings at a first pitch after the pitcher just walked two guys on 8 pitches), and would love to deal him for top shelf relief or decent relief and a solid left infield prospect.

  72. Wis

    August 10, 2010 at 10:26 am

    I love it. “we should be Gms” just posted a Dobbs hate piece.

    It is really interesting. If I am understanding this correctly all of our starting pitchers hit better than this pile o’ crap. Out of the mouth of babes: “not having the goods” is right!

  73. Bacardipr05

    August 10, 2010 at 10:34 am

    I dont really see the Phils offering more than 12 a year for Werth even then that is pushing it. Howard slightly inflated contract pretty much sealed the deal for Werth unless the Phils are going to go over there self impose cap. We will likely see Francisco, Raul an Brown they might pick up another player as an insurance policy. The Bull Pen will basically have to be rebuilt. Durbin will command a bit more money(unless he struggles) it is my belief this is why they are holding on to Herndon.

  74. Bacardipr05

    August 10, 2010 at 10:44 am

    Yes Bfo Shane is welcomed by most non hardcore fans as you put it. I still think you guys are crucifing Shane a bit too much after his few years performance. Im not sure what is going on with Shane but there is time for him to turn it around this year. Needs to get his head on straight stop trying to swing for fences all the time. It cold be Shane is just trying to do too much….

  75. Chuck

    August 10, 2010 at 10:52 am

    That’s right. Greg Dobbs “doesn’t have the goods”. That chart PROVES it!! Seeing that just makes me dislike him more.

  76. The Original Chuck P

    August 10, 2010 at 10:54 am

    Dobbs is gone… he won himself a few more weeks in the big leagues by way of injury and a timely home run but it’s time to move on. Pinch hitters are a rare breed… a lot of times, a change of scenery is just what the doctor ordered.

  77. Brooks

    August 10, 2010 at 10:57 am

    I love Shane – his performances over the last 3 years have been integral to the Phillies success. This year is a real problem for him but I dont see this inconsistency lasting much longer.

    Personally, I think Werth will be the one to leave.

  78. The Original Chuck P

    August 10, 2010 at 10:58 am

    The value of Shane Victorino is in the affordability of his contract… he’s a decent value given the fact that we’re only paying him $5 million this year and he’s under control until 2012.

    Speedy outfielders are a dime a dozen… plug a guy like Tyson Gillies in and you’re good to go.

  79. psujoe

    August 10, 2010 at 11:21 am

    I’d be OK with moving Vic, but the one advantage he has for this club over Raul is he’s much better against lefties(the phils achilles heal). Shane’s hitting 80 points higher against lefties with more power than Raul. Just something to think about.

  80. Bacardipr05

    August 10, 2010 at 12:08 pm

    Speedy infields are a dime a dozen maybe…but speedy infields that have hit .290 average are not…

  81. Chuck

    August 10, 2010 at 12:27 pm

    except that Shane’s hitting .250….this year anyway.

  82. bfo_33

    August 10, 2010 at 12:35 pm

    Bacardipr05 – didn’t intend to be condescending. Part of it is a frustration that every once in a while Shane”gets it” – puts the ball on the ground, utilizes speed to get on base, then he goes through a month regression where he’s trying to hit every ball out. Also interesting is that this year, Ibanez and Shane are mirror images. Shane is batting 220 something against righties – who we see a lot more (double the at bats). Maybe Victorino should give up on switch hitting, or platoon him and Ibanez.
    As mentioned by OCP – Vic is probably undervalued in pay vs play – if replaceable, those are the guys that get the best return.

  83. Brooks

    August 10, 2010 at 1:03 pm

    Original, the true value of Shane Victorino has not really been felt this year. He has been and will be again a spark in this offense. That is one thing you all are not acknowledging is what he brings to the field and at bat (well, maybe not this year) in attitude.

  84. psujoe

    August 10, 2010 at 1:15 pm

    Call me crazy, but if Raul continues on this pace I think there would be a market in the AL for him. Heck, he’s out performing Matsui against lefties and righties so maybe the Angels take him if Phils eat half Raul’s salary. Raul is out performing Kotsay, but there would be a salary hit to the Sox. It will be interesting to follow, lets just hope Raul continues to carry the club.

  85. Chuck

    August 10, 2010 at 1:25 pm

    What “attitude” does Shane Victorino bring to the table that is so special??

  86. psujoe

    August 10, 2010 at 1:34 pm

    There’s no excuse for a guy with Vics speed to be hitting .220 against righties unless he’s swinging for the porch. He needs to bunt more from the left side of the plate and just hit down on the ball. Maybe he’ll magically start hitting better like everyone else when they let Milt go.

  87. Phan in the outfield

    August 10, 2010 at 1:38 pm

    Yeah, I hear a lot about Vic’s attitude. To me…I feel as though he’s spoiling for a fight all the time. I also get the feeling he pushes Charlie’s buttons every once in a while. Whatever – maybe just me feeling that.

    I’m a pro of Werth. I’ve mentioned before I’d heard Werth in an interview in ST say (emotive for him) he never thought about being anywhere except Phila until he was asked about the poss. of leaving. He said he “always thought he’d end his career in Phila.” Also said he still thought they could work it out at any time no matter what was said on either side.

    I haven’t seen his recent inter. But it sounds similar, if more emotional. He’s been consistent, he wants to stay. I think he’ll give up a few $$ (not lots, why should he?) to stay. It obviously means a lot to him. I think the Yankees go for Crawford (not sure why, I don’t think they “need” OF). The Sox are just going through a bad time. They’ll get over it, but I guess we’ll see. It would genuinely sicken me to see Werth go either place. Repellent idea.

    Werth’s months older than Howard. Why should age be an issue? He’s versatile (where would we be if he wasn’t?), fast, hits for power, hits for singles & doubles, solid in the OF, has a great arm & prior to all the recent musical-base-shenanigans from this whole team he’d been good on the base paths (stole home from the Dodgers last season).

    The last HR was major. It put us 1 run down & as with all HRs it was emotional (BIG plus of seeing Beltran kiss the CF wall). In the 5 position behind Howard it’s not his fault the bases aren’t loaded when he bats. Just as it wasn’t his fault the bases weren’t loaded for his last HR. Who knew Ibanez would start hitting (thank the stars)?

    Hey, a hit is a hit, a HR is a HR. Get on base, or make a run any way you can. I guaran-damn-tee you we’ll be glad to have it. The team will need it. SIGN HIM.

  88. Chuck

    August 10, 2010 at 1:49 pm

    Once again, the flame to re-sign Jayson has been kindled.

    Yesterday I said that if RAJ were even so much as suggest that Dobbs should be re-signed that I would organize a protest march down Broad St, to Pattison Ave, to the ballpark, and straight up to his office.

    Maybe the same march should happen…only this time to convince him to RE-SIGN JAYSON WERTH!!

  89. shag beta sigma delta

    August 10, 2010 at 2:41 pm

    I am wondering Dipsy are you saying he is not worth 12 million a year, or are you saying the Phillies will not offer him that much, or some other team will not offer him that much. I really think that if the Phillies can come withing 2-3 million a year of what another team may offer him he will take it. And he is defitaly worth 12 million a year.

  90. The Original Chuck P

    August 10, 2010 at 2:47 pm

    What’s so special about .290 and speed? His biggest asset is his defense and I’m not so sure that’s so special given what he has to deal with (in comparison to other center fielders). With Werth in right, he doesn’t have a whole lot of ground to cover in that direction and it’s not like CBP is Coors Field. He has it pretty easy… in any event, Shane is one of the better center fielders (not the best by any means), an average hitter at best and his attitude… really?

    .290… the Twins are batting .282 as a team this year.

  91. The Original Chuck P

    August 10, 2010 at 2:56 pm

    I think that the Phillies will have to move someone if they’re going to keep Werth… playing Dom Brown could save them a lot of money if they can find a way to move Ibanez. Other than that, I don’t know what they can do. They’re stuck with what they’ve got, which isn’t a bad thing but Moyer’s money will go towards Oswalt and besides that, there really aren’t many expiring contracts… a raise would have to be budgeted into our plans. Our best bet of re-signing Jayson Werth would be born out of a long playoff run…

  92. Bruce

    August 10, 2010 at 3:03 pm

    As a clear eyed realist, if Domonic Brown is given a chance to be a regular next season, who would he replace? The answer hinges on Brown’s ability to adjust and be able to hit major league pitching. If he can do that, he will play in RF in place of the departed Werth who signs a lucrative contract with a new team. I think from the management’s perspective, Werth is replaceable and not Victorino or Ibanez. The latter two are more valuable to the team in overall production. Werth’s current BA is somewhat misleading. His BA with RISP is HORRIBLE! Just .153 with RISP and even a worst .096 with 2 outs. Also leads the team in strikeouts with 109 (9th in the N.L.). He can be so frustratingly awful with his ABs because of his bailing out funky swings. Maybe he be a better golfer (chuckles)? And on the basepaths? He seems so clueless
    when on base. He runs with reckless abandonment and killed more than one potential rally by being picked off. So yes, Werth is most certainly expendable.

  93. bfo_33

    August 10, 2010 at 3:14 pm

    I think they’d have to move Ibanez (paying some portion) and Victorino (who could net pen help and/or a near ready prospect) to sign Werth. While Oswalt was a bargain, he’s still a whole lot more $$ than Happ. I’d be pretty happy with Werth in center, Brown in right, Ben Fran/Gload platoon in left.

    .290 with speed is pretty good IF you steal at least at league average success rate, make productive outs (or at least make the pitcher throw more than 1 pitch), and take a walk here and there. Victorino is better than his number show this year, but is still pretty replaceable.

  94. The Original Chuck P

    August 10, 2010 at 3:23 pm

    I’m prepared for life without Werth… although I think that it would be a terrible mistake to assume that Ibanez and Victorino are more valuable in terms of production. Replacing Werth with Brown puts a lot of pressure on Brown to be a run producer out of the gate. Brown’s a dynamite baseball player and I hope that they can help him reach his potential… not sure if he’s going to put up Jayson Werth numbers out of the gate but he’s definitely got the tools to be very special.

  95. The Original Chuck P

    August 10, 2010 at 3:23 pm

  96. bfo_33

    August 10, 2010 at 3:39 pm

    Great link OCP, I’ll never call Oswalt soft again.

  97. The Original Chuck P

    August 10, 2010 at 4:11 pm

    I like the part about his shoulder and grabbing spark plug wires… kicked by a mule, shoulder goes bad, grab some spark plug wires and shoulder is fine (said in the tone of Eddie Griswold).

  98. biz

    August 10, 2010 at 4:15 pm

    Someone mentioned the Phillies going with a Fransisco, Raul, Brown OF next season. I can live with that only if RAJ fixes up the Pen. And I’m not sure which one of those guys would offer good protection for Howard in the 5 hole.

  99. Phan in the outfield

    August 10, 2010 at 4:17 pm

    I don’t get the mindset that says Ibanez & Victorino are NOT replaceable but Werth is. Odd.

    I think hope for Brown is creating a rosey view of him that isn’t quite reality. Hey he’s good & if we use him well & don’t pressure him immed then he may reach full potential (whatever that is). He just needs more time. And he’ll get it. But he’s not going to stay inexpensive and/or humble for long either.

    I don’t think losing Werth is the best idea. Will losing Werth kill the team? No. Any team can lose anyone and likely be fine – eventually. Will it be a bigger loss than anyone will admit? You bet it will. If Brown can play RF then he can learn LF. Or move Werth to LF since he’s been so darn versatile. But as has been discussed at length, nobody seems to know how, or even if, we can move Ibanez. Moving Vic isn’t such a bad idea. I think other teams think he’s worth lots. Maybe we see what we can get for him.

  100. biz

    August 10, 2010 at 4:21 pm

    Addendum: I don’t know which of those 3 could play CF. Vic’s going to have to come back.

  101. Manny

    August 10, 2010 at 4:24 pm

    I don’t know what to make of that Oswalt story… the guy may be nuts. Seems like living in a NE city will be quite the adjustment!

  102. Chuck

    August 10, 2010 at 5:02 pm

    Francisco, Brown and Raul?? THAT’S your outfield for next year?1?!

    I don’t think so. Either Werth or Vic would have to be in that mix….and play CF.

    Personally, I hope it’s Werth. But, I understand the economics and I’ll have to be ok with Vic… long as the dude stops trying to chase the HR record and just tries to put the freaking ball in play…or work a walk.

  103. shag beta sigma delta

    August 10, 2010 at 5:06 pm

    The one problem with trying to figure out how to play the outfield without Jayson is who is your right handed bat? And if you keep Brown up he needs to play more games then not. I really do not think you want to have Brown in a platoon role at the age of 22 or 23. And Gload can not play the outfield very well so he is not platooning with anyone. Can you live with Vic in center Raul in left for one year and Brown in right with Ben Fran getting playing time against lefties once in a while. I say maybe if Rollins, Vic and Utley hit more consistantly then they have this year. And who knows maybe Chooch can bat fifth maybe he figured something out and will be the next Mauer and bat 300 with 25 HR and 100 RBI’s in the 5 hole(there is some sarcasim there)

  104. shag beta sigma delta

    August 10, 2010 at 5:11 pm

    Maybe Valdez can teach Vic and JRoll to bunt like him, and then they can get one hit each a night by bunting. Is it just me or Valdez come from nowhere, I don’t care that he hits .250, he has a canon for an arm and can play an above average defense at 2nd 3rd or SS, and if given the time I would put money that he could play the corner outfield spots. As much Sh*t you people like to five RAJ this was a pretty good pick up, along with Gload. For this team to be where it is right now with 60% of the everyday players spending some significant time on the DL. 3/5 of your starting rotation and a bunch of bull pen guys on the DL for some time, some credit has to be given RAJ for the part time players he filled this roster with

  105. Chuck

    August 10, 2010 at 5:13 pm

    I would buy a Valdez jersey.

  106. psujoe

    August 10, 2010 at 5:14 pm

    I’m not worried about the pen next year except Lidge. I expect Scwimmer, Bastardo and Mathiason to contribute in 2011. An outfield of Brown, Ben Fran and Raul would be a huge drop off from what the Phils have now. Ideally Raul or Vic will be moved to free up money for Werth.

  107. bacardipr05

    August 10, 2010 at 7:21 pm

    I would like VIC BROWN WERTH we all that speed in the outfield we have on dynamic defense. Then we have Gload an Francisco to Platoon. In my eyes this on paper sounds like the best. This is assuming Vic starts batting what he normally does. With those 3 right there you could have 80 stolen bases a year. The could manufacture runs learn how to Pinch Hit. PsuJoe a bullpen of Rookies with Lidge, Madson an Baez sounds scary to me. They would have to pick up a Veteran or 2 reliever in my eyes. Im thinking they hope Baez returns to a respectable form next year or they would likely dump him.

  108. bacardipr05

    August 10, 2010 at 7:22 pm

    ps….meant learn to Bunt…

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