Why The Phillies Are Better Off Being Lucky v. Good – Phillies Nation

Why The Phillies Are Better Off Being Lucky v. Good

Best case scenario? Cole Hamels and the Phillies are lucky in addition to being good in 2012. Photo by: Ian Riccaboni

If you recognize the name Andy Martino, you either remember his brief time as a Phillies beat reporter in 2009 or you are a Mets fan who knows him from his work as the New York Daily News’  Mets lead. If you didn’t know the name before just now? You will know him for passing along this gem from an unnamed NL scout: “Other than those three pitchers, they’re not very good.”

If I were the Phillies in 2012, I would put one quote on the bulletin board.

Disregarding Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels is bad. In its own right is like saying Hulk Hogan is nothing without his 24 inch pythons, melting hotdog-colored skin, and unlimited charisma, the Ramones were nothing without Joey, Johnny, and Deedee, or that a banana split is nothing without bananas, gooey toppings, and vanilla ice cream. After all, nobody wants just steroids, or just fill in musicians, or just a pile of nuts and whipped cream. The situation beyond Halladay, Lee, and Hamels is not quite as the mysterious unnamed scout would have you believe. The trio is good enough to win a World Series almost on their own merit. But in recent history, it is often better to be lucky than good.

Do I think the Phillies will win the 2012 World Series? While I think it is possible, there are a number of holes to fill and they would need a lot of things to go right in order for that to happen. Do I think they will make the playoffs? Absolutely. Recent history dictates almost matter-of-factly that teams can throw out the rule book and regular season when they reach the playoffs. This is why I would rather have the Phillies be lucky than good.

Using FanGraphs WAR, or fWAR, here is a graph of the combined fWARs of starting pitching for each of the last 10 pennant winners, NL World Series winners outlined in blue, AL World Series Winners outlined in red, league highs with green shaded boxes, and league lows with red shaded boxes:

Amazingly, only 3 out of the last 10 World Series winners had better regular season starting pitching according to WAR than their opponents. Both league highs lost their World Series match-ups, with the NL’s high being swept in 2005, and both league’s low teams won. (Side note: if you need any proof that baseball’s playoffs are amongst the most random events, look no further than the 2006 Cardinals whose entire starting pitching staff was out-pitched by both Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee each last year.)

These stats can be a bit misleading, however. Teams who have dominant pitching and less hitting would have a higher percentage of WAR per win. Adjusting for that, here is what that chart looks like by percentage of WAR per regular season win:

What does this mean? Well adjusting starters’ WAR against the total number or regular season wins paints an even more confusing picture: teams with great starting pitching are just as susceptible as teams with pitching that carriers less of the load for their team. While great pitching will get you into the playoffs, it isn’t guaranteed to get you anywhere.

One of the most glaring, and relevant, examples to this is the 2008 World Series. 1 through 5, Tampa Bay unquestionably had the better staff. Five very good pitchers, brimming with potential, all under 26 years old facing Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, and Joe Blanton. What won that World Series for the Phillies? One dominating pitcher, timely hits, and luck. The Phillies caught lightning in a bottle and the Rays couldn’t catch a break.

Phillies starters put up an astounding 23.1 WAR last year, or 22.6% of their win total. That 23.1 WAR is better than every NL team that has won the pennant in the last 10 years and better than every pennant winner across both leagues not named the 2003 New York Yankees. Assuming the five Phillies starters are Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Worley, and Blanton, FanGraphs projects the staff to accumulate around 22.2 WAR in 2012. If they reach the World Series with that kind of WAR, they would have a pretty striking comparable: the 2005 Houston Astros.

The 2005 Houston Astros had only three regulars hit over .280 in a year where it is assumed steroids were still pretty rampant. They scored 28 runs under the NL average, were 3rd last in the NL in batting average and on-base percentage, and 6th worst in slugging. They did, however, have three dominant pitchers, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettite, and Roy Oswalt and barely held on to the Wild Card in the final weekend of the season, breaking Phillies’ fans hearts. That team was swept by a team with almost equally great starting pitching, the Chicago White Sox, who just happened to play a little better and get a little luckier. More recently, the 2010 San Francisco Giants reached the playoffs in 2010 with two great arms (Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain), one hot one (Johnathan Sanchez), and an almost exactly league-average offense (4.3 rpg v. 4.0 rpg NL avg., .260 BA v. .257 BA NL avg.).

There is precedent for teams built like the 2012 Phillies reaching and winning the World Series. Great pitching and league-average offense has done the trick in the past. As for the unnamed NL scout? I think he is overestimating the importance of Ryan Howard‘s absence, underestimating Vance Worley, is ignoring the talent of Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence, and Carlos Ruiz, and forgets that a lot of these guys have been there before. For me, it’s no longer about being good; I want to get to the playoffs and be lucky.

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  1. bacardipr05

    March 30, 2012 at 9:07 am

    Yea but this is Philly sports where we rarely get lucky to win the big prize…

    • schmenkman

      March 30, 2012 at 9:54 am

      We got lucky in 2008.

      I know you’re talking more about the ultimate championship, but just sticking with baseball, if the Phillies aren’t lucky, how do these other successful teams feel? These are the last 5 playoff appearances for each team:

      Cardinals (last 8 years): 3 WS appearances, 2 WS wins
      Red Sox (last 8 years): 2 WS appearances, 2 WS wins
      PHILLIES (last 5 years): 2 WS appearances, 1 WS win
      Giants (last 15 years): 2 WS appearances, 1 WS win
      Yankees (last 6 years): 1 WS appearance, 1 WS win
      Rangers (last 16 years): 2 WS appearances, 0 WS wins
      Angels (last 8 years): 0 WS appearances, 0 WS wins
      Dodgers (last 16 years): 0 WS appearances, 0 WS wins
      Braves (last 10 years): 0 WS appearances, 0 WS wins

      The Phillies have been luckier/more successful in the postseason than 5 of the 8 other teams.

    • Chris

      March 30, 2012 at 4:59 pm

      The Phillies team of last year was actually way better than the one they won the WS with in 08. The Phillies have been getting better every year despite exiting the playoffs earlier every year. I expect this year that trend ends as I don’t see them topping 102 wins.

  2. Ian Riccaboni

    March 30, 2012 at 10:02 am

    That’s a great point Schmenkman, nice stats there. I think the NFL may be the most variable with one-and-done playoffs, but it still amazes me that the MLB has such variance in multiple game series. It’s something you don’t see too often in the NHL or NBA and I think it has a lot to do with a limited playoff pool.

  3. Ian Riccaboni

    March 30, 2012 at 10:05 am

    Side note: I’ve had this picture for years and just now noticed it looks like someone is trying to get Cole to sign or accept some sort of television or movie script (upper left near his head). Weird.

  4. Ryan H.

    March 30, 2012 at 11:19 am

    2012 phillies will be a much more well rounded team than the 2011 cardinals and the 2010 Giants.

    actually, come to think of it there are alot of comparisons between this team and the 2010 Giants. big three pitchers and not much offense. although this phillies lineup should be alot more formidable than that giants teams was.

  5. George

    March 30, 2012 at 11:42 am

    19.1 beats out 19.2 in the series? Or 11.5 wins over 12.6?

    Some of these numbers are so close it really doesn’t mean much. Luck helps, but as someone once said, “We make our own luck.”

    Sometimes a team just plays like garbage. They’re not going make much luck by popping up or striking out with runners in scoring position, or by trying to go first-third on an infield grounder, or by not locating pitches.

    • Lefty

      March 30, 2012 at 1:48 pm

      While I see some validity in the “luck” or “crapshoot” theory, I also agree completely with this comment.

      At a slot machine, you have to get lucky, there is nothing you can do to change the outcome. In baseball, there definitely is.

      • schmenkman

        March 30, 2012 at 2:27 pm

        Watch any single inning of baseball, and you’re likely to see luck at play. A bloop hit falls in, a line drive right at a fielder, a close call is missed, and so on.

        The old adage that the breaks even out over the course of a season is sort of true, but not quite. It takes several seasons for them to even out.

        And if you look at any 5- or 7-game series, either during the regular season or the playoffs, obviously you wouldn’t expect it all to even out.

        I don’t think anyone ever said it’s all luck. But since the playoffs by definition are between two very good, fairly evenly matched teams, luck invariably plays some role.

      • Lefty

        March 30, 2012 at 2:49 pm

        And I didn’t say it was all skill. I said, While I see some validity in in the “luck”…..

        I have to run, let’s go back and forth on this some other time.

    • EricL

      March 30, 2012 at 2:35 pm

      You say “playing like garbage,” I say, that’s all part of the luck of the game.

      The best hitters in the world make outs in 55-60% of their ABs. Popping up or striking out an handful of particular situations doesn’t mean the person was playing like crap, it just means that there is a ton of variance in the game of baseball and those bounces sometimes go against you.

      Yes, there are times players do dumb things–like when your CF throws the ball backward to the wall–but overall a vast majority of the game comes down to the vagaries of baseball, which is why people say that the playoffs, being such very short series’, are a crapshoot.

      • George

        March 30, 2012 at 3:28 pm

        First of all, a strikeout doesn’t involve a bounce. And if a player has a bad series, is that really luck, or is it that for whatever reason he’s just playing like crap for that one particular series? There have been numerous series games that have been decided by errors and poor judgement. For instance: Bill Buckner’s miscue, Cole Hamel’s overuse of his mediocre curve ball in 2009, and as so many have ranted about, Ryan Howard swing 3-0 (although that may not have affected the final score, to most fans it did)

        You can’t tell me that any of those instances were “luck.”

        I’m not saying that luck doesn’t play a role at times; what I’m saying is that luck has too many fingers pointed at it as an excuse for losing. 19.1 beating 19.2 is still, in my mind, a totally useless metric; those numbers are just too close to indicate anything.

  6. Lefty

    March 30, 2012 at 1:50 pm

    Good posting Riccaboni, well written and nice job on the research. I tend to agree with George on this one, but good stuff anyway.

  7. Koba

    March 30, 2012 at 4:10 pm

    What does this have to do with Evan Turner and Thad Young?

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