2012 Game Recaps

Phils Come Back and Walk It Off Against Rockies

PHOTO: AP

The Phillies couldn’t do much at the plate against the Rockies Friday night, but they did enough to win the game, as they came back from a late 2-0 deficit to win 3-2 on a pinch-hit, RBI single by Nate Schierholtz. It was their 10th walk-off win of the season.

NOT THAT FRANCIS GUY AGAIN

I remember Jeff Francis from 2007 when he shut down the Phillies in the NLDS. He did the same tonight, throwing 5.2 innings of shutout baseball. He had a pitch count limit of 75 pitches–which Larry Anderson rightfully bashed all night–and was pulled after 86. He walked just one and struck out seven, while allowing six hits.

DECENT NIGHT FOR LEE, BUT NOT A THIRD STRAIGHT ‘W’

For the Phils, Cliff Lee had an pretty good night. He had a rough first inning, where he gave up two runs, but then got in a groove for pretty much the rest of hit outing. He got in trouble in the 7th, but the bullpen surprisingly bailed him out.

Overall, he gave up two runs on eight hits while striking out seven in 6.1 innings. Both he and Francis received a no-decision on the night.

“CLUYTCH”

OK, that was bad. But it is a reference to Laynce Nix‘s 2 RBI pinch-hit double in the bottom of the seventh inning. It was only his 3rd pinch hit of the year.

You know who else was clutch? Erik Kratz and Nate Schierholtz. Kratz threw out a runner in the 9th and Schierholtz hit the game winning single in the ninth.

MINI MART CAN HIT?

Michael Martinez, who came into the game hitting a cool .115, collected two hits on the night in two at-bats before he was taken out in favor of Pete Orr.

GAME NOTES

The Phils play the Rockies again tomorrow at 7:05 PM, with Cole Hamels facing off with Tyler Chatwood.

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0 Comments

  1. Andrew from Waldorf

    September 8, 2012 at 1:08 am

    Brewers up 4-2 in the 8th

    Could be to 7 games.

    If it gets to 3 or 4 with 15 or so left could at least be something to watch.

  2. Andrew from Waldorf

    September 8, 2012 at 1:16 am

    The Dodgers are losing too.

    Just for fun on Sept 7th 2011 the Cardinals were 6.5 games out of the wild card.

    And that was when there was only one so thier elimination number was actualy lower than the fightins is now.

  3. Andrew from Waldorf

    September 8, 2012 at 3:07 am

    After a 2.5 hour rain delay and 13 innings
    Braun homers in the 13th

    Cardinals lose.

    Phils are 7 games out of the WC

  4. Andrew from Waldorf

    September 8, 2012 at 3:07 am

    3 05 am!

  5. JMills

    September 8, 2012 at 8:28 am

    Has Lee become a 6 inning pitcher?

    • schmenkman

      September 8, 2012 at 9:49 am

      I don’t think so.

      Innings per start by year:

      2008 – 7.2 (CY)
      2009 – 6.8
      2010 – 7.6
      2011 – 7.3
      2012 – 7.0

    • Lefty

      September 8, 2012 at 10:16 am

      He’s a pitcher that gives you way more quality starts than average. Is that a bad thing?

      • Ken Bland

        September 8, 2012 at 1:09 pm

        Using the standard def of a quality start, 6/3, I count 15 out of 25 starts matched the requirement. I counted Kershaw, and he was 21/29. There’s no message in my counting him against CK, but I don’t know that the 15 out of 25 would be too much above average. You’d think he’s got 1 more year left where he does better than 40%.

        But the question JMills asked was if he’s become a 6 inning guy. He’s thrown enough 110-120 pitch games this year that show he’s still got the stamina, or endurance. He could probably do that for 2 more years. If this were a winning season where he maybe had to be pinch hit for 2-3 times, and hadn’t missed whatever it was 3-4 starts, or had to leave in his last start as a precaution, the question wouldn’t come as naturally.

        The answer is no. He’s not a 6 inning pitcher. But you could add for now, which isn’t THAT far off in the future from changing the answer.

        No matter what, he’s a joy to watch, and I’m glad he came here, and came back.

      • Lefty

        September 8, 2012 at 6:55 pm

        Hey Ken, good counter- My line of thinking is this.

        League average for quality starts is around 54% this year, and has been under the 50% mark for the most of Lee’s career.

        I stated that Cliff Lee gives you way more quality starts than average.

        15 out of 25 is 60%. Way more? Questionable I guess, that’s a perception argument. It depends on how important you think that 5% is. Considering this year’s bullpen performance, I’d say it’s absolutely “way” more. However you choose to see it, it’s still more.

        I don’t have the time or inclination to look up career numbers, but considering his achievements, I have to believe they are even better than that, hard to go 22-3 without quality starts.

        But we agree totally that he is a joy to watch and I am also glad we acquired his services twice.

      • Ken Bland

        September 8, 2012 at 8:08 pm

        It is 60%. that’s the percentage I’d expect next year, and um, dare I say probably higher. I did say 40%, thinking the opposite. You had an edge on me knowing the league average is 54% successful quality starts. Being unfamiliar with that, I figured he was nominally above average this season. He’s a little better than nominally.

        Another way to look at it is to narrow the field a little bit. If the average is 54%, it includes a lot of 3, 4 and 5’s. Figure Cliff’s sucking up about 1/6th, around 15% of a borderline luxury tax payroll salary. In those regards, about 7% better than average isn’t what we’d like to see. But of course not every year is gonna match the standards of a star. Last year, he threw quality starts in 25 of 32 (my figures are by manual count, so I might be minimally off, but generally accurate). Couple games of 7-8 innings, 4 runs…not terrible. Now that ratio is more in line with 20 plus mil a year upper echelon, but I’d like to think he’ll get closer to that, although 15 of 25 is like a notch above half decent.

        Kendrick has 4 quality starts in a row now.

        No, I am not having a love affair with this quality start stat, usually scoffed at, but turning out to be a pretty fair measure of result versus skill.

      • schmenkman

        September 8, 2012 at 8:16 pm

        According to BB-Reference he’s had 16 QS’s ouf of 25 (64%) this year, which is 17th highest out of the 49 NL qualifiers. In 2008-2011 his QS% was 74%, 71%, 64% ,78%.

        Also, he’s done better on the things that he can most control (walks, Ks, HRs): his ERA is 15th out of 49, but his Fielding Indepenendent Pitching (FIP), is 8th best.

      • Lefty

        September 9, 2012 at 9:56 am

        Thanks Schmatman. This is the first time I’ve looked into this as I never really appreciated quality starts as as stat that mattered all that much. This year’s version of the Phillies bullpen has changed that considerably.

        I also find it interesting that the league average has gone up significantly the last 2-3 years. It was close to or under 50% the preceding ten or so years. I wonder what changed, better starters? Managers attitudes toward keeping them in? better drug testing maybe?

  6. Brooks

    September 8, 2012 at 8:31 am

    The Phils can jump 2 spots in the WC race by the time the Rockies leave town. If they don’t get the game in tonight, likely they will play a double header tomorrow. I heard the forecast is wet for tonight. That would leave the Dodgers, Pirates and the Cards to deal with. 7 back, 24 to play. Not looking good.

    • Valentino

      October 9, 2012 at 12:50 pm

      I agree that for some of the Phillies (Utley since August, Victorino since Sept.) things have not been good with the bat. But I also agree that the last 6 games mean nihtong. Having nihtong to play for, I am sure these guys sleep in their beds a little longer, spend more time with the kids, stay out a little longer, watch less film and do less prep than if they were in the throws of a race for something.

  7. Manny

    September 8, 2012 at 10:39 am

    The next 12 games are, on paper, relatively easy (vs Rockies, Marlins, Astros, Mets). If we get on a hot streak and go 9-3 or better, things are gonna get real.

    • Ken Bland

      September 8, 2012 at 1:29 pm

      I’d really and truly like to know what, based on YTD head to head competition enables counting the Mets in this group that leads to a 9-3 record, which, with 794 teams in front sums to a conclusion of things getting real. They’ll have to have at least 1 team’s flight crash to make things interesting at 9-3. I’d guess that even 12-1 still makes it tough.

      Two Sunday’s back (2 weeks from tomorrow), I figured they had to go 10-3 in this 13 game stretch, and they proceeded to lose 2 of 3 to the Mets right away. That 10-3 was combined with 7-5 against the Braves, Nats and Reds (so far, so good on that front, 4-2).

      I figured they had to somehow catch the Bucks and Dbacks by Sept 10 to just leave the Dodgers and Cards. That was a real wild guess, so that may not have even mattered, but instead, the Brewers, who they passed, or tied, when they won the first 3 of 4 in head to head play, have once again moved past them.

      They just need to win, win, and win some more. The projections are fun, albeit a probable waste of time, but I just see little reason to get overconfident about beating the Mets, to whom playing for 3rd place probably means something.

      On a side note, the Phils record is drastically improved since Vic and pence were dealt. Milwaukee has won a lot since Greinke was traded. The A’s have kicked ass since Colon was detected. There are reasons for all these that dismiss a quick problems were dealt or dismissed (a “problem” might even be something so simple as a guy being distracted by his contract status). But it’s interesting how a lot of examples are available of teams playing better once the “pressure” of a race was gone. It’s a fine line between thinking optimistically about the future, and playing successfully for nothing. Just keep winning, and let the race, or trends for ’13 fall where they may.

  8. Chuck A.

    September 8, 2012 at 11:45 am

    We are NOT making the playoffs. Hot streak or 9-3 aside…there are just too many teams to climb over. Where the hell did Milwaukee come from???!!!

    • Ryne Duren

      September 8, 2012 at 1:32 pm

      one can only pray chuck! in one of the weirdest seasons i’ve ever seen i’m hoping and praying the (wierd)part now goes in our favor! now that would be sweet! you’re right too, where did they come from? we’re gonna need some things to go our way.

    • Andrew from Waldorf

      September 8, 2012 at 4:23 pm

      Chuck you always hate on my team and their players!
      They can do this.

      And you are buying me beers at the parade.
      I am wearing my howard Jersey too.

  9. Bruce

    September 8, 2012 at 3:01 pm

    Hey! Get real. It’s nice to be an optimist but when reading some Pollyannish views that the Phillies have a chance for the WC borders on the absurd. Please understand I love the Phillies and am enjoying the ride they are giving us with their improved play and offense since Utley and Howard returned. Also the unexpected offensive production from the August call-ups, Kratz and Frandsen to go with Kendrick’s streak of solid pitching.

    However, fans, the reality is we have just TWENTY FOUR games left and FOUR games below .500 and so many teams to leapfrog. Do you really think those teams will all go into a slump the same time?

    I’m a realist and my hopes are simply to see the team finish the season on a positive note and avoid a losing record (all they need is 14 more wins to do it). Plus to prevent the Mets fans from having bragging rights if their team finished ahead of the Phillies. We don’t want that to happen..do we? 🙂

  10. Bob in Bucks

    September 8, 2012 at 3:08 pm

    Boys PLEASE stop with the playoff talk. It is not # of games behind it is # of teams you have to pass! Example from tonight will be Brewers Cardinals game. You think you want the Cards to lose but then the Brewers win and you have not passed anyone. When you consider that all these teams play each other it simply is not happening for the Phils.
    Lets focus on getting over 500!

    • schmenkman

      September 8, 2012 at 3:36 pm

      Completely agree, except that the Phillies’ extremely small chances always improve slightly when the leading team (at the moment St. Louis) loses.

      • DavidE

        September 8, 2012 at 5:52 pm

        Regarding whether the Phillies benefit from having Milwaukee win, obviously there chances are better if the Brewers win because it will be much easier to catch the Brew Crew than the Cardinals if the Phillies keep winning. Pittsburgh and L.A. have not looked good of late.

        However, it’s going to be very tough. Just for the Philies to reach .500 requires a 14-10 record. In order to reach 87 wins, the Phillies would need to go 20-4 in their last 24 games.

        Does it matter for next year how the team performs? Absolutely! The Phillies have not had any trouble replacing Blanton. Next year, you have starting possibilies of Hamels, Halladay, Lee, Kendrick, Cloyd, Worley and Ethan Martin could come up at some point. It looks like that some of the young pitchers such as DeFratus, Aumont, Lindblom, Horst and possibly Schwimmer are going to give the Phillies an improved bullpen next year. I don’t know what to expect from Frandsen and Kratz who have been surprsingly good but its possible Chooch could play some 3rd base next year and Kratz can be a very productive part-time catcher.

  11. Andrew from Waldorf

    September 8, 2012 at 4:13 pm

    They are making the Playoffs.

    ” I guarentee it”
    -Joe Namath

    On a serious note.
    Do not need a rain out.

    Very tough to win a double header. Would rather play a game a night.

    And people that follow me understand I am having some fun.
    It will take 21-3

    Is it probable? Is it possible?

    If mankind goes on indefinately. And MLB remains.
    It will happen sometime.

    Why not now??? Why not this team?

    Was it over when the Germans bombed pearl harbor?
    Well it aint over now.

    Who is with me???????????????

    • Ken Bland

      September 8, 2012 at 5:19 pm

      Rah rah, sis boom bah!

      GO PHILLIES!

    • Brooks

      September 9, 2012 at 3:49 am

      Realistically – it isn’t going to happen. This can only happen if Superman comes to Philly for the next month or so.

      Superman would play like Josh Hamilton (earlier in the year), Kemp, Arod in his prime, Puljos (while in the NL), Junior Griffey in his prime – offensively, if Superman were to reveal himself – potentially this could carry the team into the post season.

  12. Chuck A.

    September 9, 2012 at 9:52 am

    Phils could be 5 out after today’s action IF:

    1) They sweep the twinbill (very possible AND absolutely necessary).
    2) MIL beats STL (which is a good possibility the way the Brewers are playing as of late).

    The Cubs beating the Pirates, the Giants over the Dodgers and the Padres over the D-Backs would be nice, too. Am I asking for too much?? Yeah, I guess I’m still sippin’ on the Koolaid…

    But, yeah, being realistic…. it’s not gonna happen. TOO much has to fall the Phils’ way over the next 3+ weeks….like 3 teams (PIT,STL,LAD) basically collapsing and 2 teams (MIL,ARI) playing only about .500…. all while the Phillies win 20+ games out of 24.

    I’ve maintained all along that I want to see .500, a record better than the Mets, and some definite momentum going into the off-season and next spring. After this season that alone would make this season at least somewhat palatable.

    • Sandeep

      October 9, 2012 at 12:49 pm

      That could run tomorrow on The Golf Channel or any tanourment broadcast tips segment. Great job. I look forward to seeing our Guru go prime time nationwide.

  13. Lefty

    September 9, 2012 at 10:15 am

    The problem with hoping for protracted losing streaks from all these other teams is that many of them play each other 3-6 times. We could go 24-0 and it’ll still be over. The time to make a run was way earlier in the season and the Phils failed to do that. The Valdespin game, the David Wright game, heck you can go all the way back to the game in early May when they blew that 6-0 lead in Atlanta and then came back, and then in extras had Brian Sanches blow it when that guy (I get sick mentioning his name- you know, -Larry), hit the home run to beat us. You can think of many times, and point to so many wasted opportunities.

    It’s just plain over. but my best advice (as if anyone cares what I say), is that we enjoy the games while we can, they’re still fun to watch.

    And the winter is long, dark, and cold.

    • Chuck A.

      September 9, 2012 at 10:29 am

      Lefty – question for you. And I’ve thought a lot about this myself. If the Phils finish .500 or better was this August and September more enjoyable than last year’s August and September?? In other words, was it more exciting to watch this team scramble from 13 games under .500 at the AS Break and finish strong and not make the playoffs than to watch last year’s team as they fought to get to 102 wins and eventually lose like they did in the 1st round.

      For me, the answer is this season.

      • Lefty

        September 9, 2012 at 10:52 am

        Interesting Chuck. I have to give it some thought first, but I guess that in itself says something.

      • Chuck A.

        September 9, 2012 at 11:16 am

        And let me just add that the LAST thing I want to see happen is for them to play out of their minds and miss that last wild card spot by only one game. Then I’m gonna be pissed off that it could have come down to that Valdespin game or one of the Larry walk-offs or some other game (there are plenty!) that they should have won. No…82-80 (or 83-79…remember my preference there?!) and I’m REAL happy as a Phillies fan.

  14. Nena

    October 12, 2012 at 12:24 am

    PDRTJS_settings_5081596_comm_4582 = {“id” : “5081596”,”unique_id” : “wp-comment-4582″,”title” : “This+show+is+freakin%27+awesmoe%21…”,”item_id” : “_comm_4582″,”permalink” : “http%3A%2F%2Fwww.krackblog.com%2F2011%2F08%2F16%2Fin-case-you-missed-it-dish-nation-episode-16%2F%23comment-4582”}This show is freakin’ awesmoe!

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