Would Charlie be fired midseason?
Our Phillies Nation contributors got together to give you their boldest prediction for 2013. What will Ryan Howard do? Could the Phillies really trade Halladay or Lee? How well will Cole do?
Read our thoughts, then let us know what your bold prediction for the upcoming year is in the comments section.
Charlie goes?
-Brian Michael: The Phillies struggle early and Charlie Manuel is fired midseason.
Young youthful again:
-Eric Seidman: Michael Young play more like his 2011-self and hits .314/.366/.478.
Chooch back to earth:
-Corey Seidman: Carlos Ruiz hits below .280 and the Phillies (88-74) finish in 2nd place to the Nats (93-69).
Utley not healthy:
-Don M.: Chase Utley goes on the 60-day DL and finishes the season (and his Phillies career) there.
Utley healthy:
-Ryan Dinger: Chase Utley starts 145 games this season and Michael Young hits .320/.370/.450 with 15 home runs
-Nick Staskin: Chase Utley will play over 130 games and seemingly return to form to post a stay line close to .300/.400/.450 with 25+ HR
Can Chase stay healthy the whole year? (AP)
Please let this one NOT happen:
-Jon Nisula: One of Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee is traded at the deadline.
We could deal with this:
-Ian Riccaboni: Ben Revere hits TWO home runs in 2013. More seriously: Ryan Howard hits .250/.300/.400 with 35 HRs.
Time for some DomBombs:
-Pat Gallen: Domonic Brown hits .275/.335/.475 and slugs 18-20 home runs.
JMills
January 3, 2013 at 8:45 am
Darin Ruf wins rookie of the year batting .275 32hr 108rbi.
Frank Price
January 3, 2013 at 10:06 am
That would be great!! He does have the tools!!
George
January 3, 2013 at 9:04 am
My bold prediction is that one of these staff predictions actually comes close to happening.
EricL
January 3, 2013 at 10:55 am
For fun, I was trying to rank the predictions in order of whose is most likely to come true. I think it would be something like this:
1. Gallen – Dom Brown line of .275/.335/.475
2. Staskin – Utley 130+ games: 300/.400/.450 with 25+ HR
3. Nisula – Lee or Halladay traded at the deadline
4. C. Seidman – Ruiz <.280, Phils finish second w/ 88 wins (88 & 2nd both seem hit to me, but close)
5. DM – Utley finishes the year on the 60-day DL, is not re-signed
6. Riccaboni – Howard: 250/.300/.400 with 35 HRs. (35 HR w/ a .400 SLG would be fun)
7. Michael – Phillies struggle & Manuel is fired
8. E. Seidman – MY .314/.366/.478 – That would be the 4th highest OPS of his career
9. Dinger – MY .320/.370/.450 AND Utley misses 17 games at most.
EricL
January 3, 2013 at 10:57 am
For number 4, change “hit” to “high”
Also, maybe bump it up to 3 and drop the Lee/Halladay trade down to 4.
curt kauffman
January 3, 2013 at 9:29 am
The Phils will finish tied for 3rd. The only way to finish higher would have been if they would send Howard, Kratz, Brown, Mayberry and Martinez to play Winter ball to work on their hitting and limit strikeouts.
schmenkman
January 3, 2013 at 9:39 am
Curt, did you know the Phillies struck out less than any team in the NL last year?
Dave P
January 3, 2013 at 9:57 am
I’d think that a large part of that has to do with RyHo not playing the first few months of the season.
schmenkman
January 3, 2013 at 10:50 am
Dave P, no, that’s not it. His replacements did not strike out any less than he usually does.
In fact, Phillies first basemen combined actually struck out more in 2012 (195) than in 2011 (180).
g
January 3, 2013 at 11:47 am
Schmenkman,
How dare you come on this post with facts….
Dave P
January 3, 2013 at 11:55 am
Well, “less than he usually does” isn’t the same as “less than he did last year”. I don’t know how many plate appearances at 1B weren’t Howard last year, but if even 150 games worth of plate appearances went to Howard and his career high 33.9% strike out rate, I’m sure there’d be some team in the NL with less strike outs.
Rough numbers crunch – Taking away Ty Wigginton and John Mayberry’s plate appearances at 1B (howard + wiggy + mayberry = 153 games at first), Howard would have struck out around 195 times. At first base, Wiggy actually struck out 49 times, mayberry struck out 23 times, and Howard struck out 96 times, adding up to 168 strike outs from the 1st base position. So Howard would have added 27 strike outs to the Phillies total from last year. This leads to one team in the national league having struck out less than the Phillies – the SF Giants.
Again, this is rough math, since I’m not considering what spot in the order wiggy or mayberry batted from (howard most certainly would have batted clean up every game). But I’m pretty sure Howard would have struck out more than Mayberry and Wigginton did in his absence.
schmenkman
January 3, 2013 at 12:17 pm
Fair question. Another way to put it: if we assume that Howard would have struck out at the same rate of 33.9% even if he was healthy all season and played every game, that would be 229 Ks in 675 plate appearances (which is how many all first basemen got in 2012).
That would add 34 strikeouts to the Phillies’ total, and you’re right, that would have been more than the Giants.
So to summarize: even if Howard was healthy all year and played every game, and still struck out much more than he ever has in the past, the Phillies would have still struck out the 2nd fewest times of any team in the NL.
Dave
January 3, 2013 at 2:43 pm
Howard did’t play a full year!
schmenkman
January 3, 2013 at 2:56 pm
Dave, right, if you get caught up on the comments, you’ll see that:
1) with a typical full year of Howard, the Phillies would still have had the fewest strikeouts
2) even if you assume he was healthy all year and played every game, but still struck out as often as he did this year (33.9% of the time), the Phillies would have had the second fewest strikeouts in the league
wbramh
January 3, 2013 at 4:48 pm
The danger for Phillies hitters is not striking out but just standing in the batter’s box. For example, swinging the bat or trying to run out of the box on a dribbling grounder. Those actions alone accounted for the loss of two starters; one with a broken back and another with a torn achilles tendon.
They should keep their bats on their shoulders and hope for the (relative) safety of a walk.
Ryne Duren
January 4, 2013 at 12:19 am
schmenk happy near year to you. i can’t help myself achmenk i’m in a good mood cause baseball is getting closer by the day now! so hear goes… “the phils struck out less than any team in the NL last year.” yes but they were so well timed as to ruin their chances of rallying! i call them quality strikouts. i was trying to be funny not sarcastic pal. have a good one.
schmenkman
January 4, 2013 at 9:07 am
Ryne, thanks — a very happy new year to you too.
At the risk of killing the joke, I will say that the Phils struck out even less with runners in scoring position, and with RISP and 2 outs, and even with runners on 3rd and less than 2 outs.
They did strike out more than their usual rate in “late and close” situations, but every team does that because that’s when the high-K relievers are in.
The Phillies actually struck out less than any team in the NL in those late and close situations. They were also the 3rd best hitting team in the NL then.
wbramh
January 5, 2013 at 1:07 am
What irks me are not Ryan Howard’s strikeouts; they’re a common malady among great power hitters and baseball fans everywhere live with that fact. Driving in over 100 RBIs makes it an easier weakness to accept.
But when Ryan not long ago stated that “an out is an out” (or words to that effect), he was either guilty of misspeaking or should have known better.
Obviously, a strikeout never drives in a runner from third (unless the whiff is followed by a passed ball).
A player with Ryan’s power should realize that fact and concentrate harder on making simple contact when runners are in scoring position rather than trying to drive the ball to Market Street.. With Ryan’s natural power, an easy swing is enough to reach the “cheap seats” (anybody else old enough to remember cheap seats?.
)Maybe he already understands his ideal goal in those at-bats but his infamous comment makes me wonder.
hk
January 5, 2013 at 8:17 am
wbramh,
1. In 48.3% of Howard’s career PA’s, the bases have been empty.
2. In 21.0% of Howard’s careeer PA’s, there have been men on base, but two outs.
3. Howard has grounded into DP’s in 8.6% of his PA’s with a man on 1st and less two outs.
Therefore, in 69.3% of his career PA’s, an out is just an out. The other PA’s, which are a mixed bag of bad (DP’s and force outs in which he replaces a faster runner on 1st), neutral (outs on which no runners advance) and good (“productive” outs that move up a runner or runners), all average out to be neutral.
As either Eric Seidman or our good friend schmenkman pointed out previously on another post, there is next to 0 or even a negative correlation between a team’s batting K’s and its run scoring.
c schreiber
January 5, 2013 at 12:48 am
Why is minimart’s name still being brought up in Phils stories?? Aren’t they done with him yet??
curt kauffman
January 3, 2013 at 9:30 am
The Phils will finish tied for 3rd. The only way to finish higher would have been if they would send Howard, Kratz, Brown, Ruf, Mayberry and Martinez to play Winter ball to work on their hitting and limit strikeouts.
Frank Price
January 3, 2013 at 9:52 am
I look at it this way, in 2011 they had the best record in baseball, last year due to injury they finished at 500. They will win 95 games if Utley and Howard are in the opening day lineup. They are the team to beat!!! They have the experience and have won, I cant wait to be in the playoffs and shut up these nay sayers!! World Series 2013!!
EricL
January 3, 2013 at 11:33 am
I’ll have some of what you’re on, please.
Seriously, the Nationals are the team to beat and it’s not really close.
wbramh
January 3, 2013 at 7:33 pm
I hope you prove me wrong, Frank but I’d say the Phils are the team to beat for 3rd place.
Short of a miracle realignment with the Nats and Braves moving to the American League, I’d say the Fightin’s are a lock for 3rd.
Frank Price
January 4, 2013 at 10:09 am
Hahahahaha this is going to be good, First the the Nats never won, they folded right up when it mattered, not saying they are not a good team, but win something first!! Atlanta not to scared there neither. Phillies will win this division by 5 games you heard it hear. Do you really think the Phils go from best record to 3 place, barring any injuries we will be fine PHILLIES!!!!!!!!!!!!! in 13!!
Chuck A.
January 4, 2013 at 10:39 am
Frank – seriously….come on, man…. I said that, with certain things happening, the Phillies would win 90 games and get to the playoffs. But winning the division by 5 games!!!??? You are delusional.
Bill
January 3, 2013 at 9:49 am
A lot depends on Roy Halladay’s health. If Doc can dominate and assuming Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee have their normal seasons, the Phillies will be right in the thick of it and make the playoffs. In order to win the division, they need to add a legitimate right handed power bat or Utley and Howard need to return to form.
http://www.mtrphilly.com
Dave P
January 3, 2013 at 9:59 am
Bold prediction – Jimmy Rollins, after some early season struggles, gets moved to the 2 hole, moving Ben Revere up to the top of the order.
Dell
January 3, 2013 at 10:02 am
Kyle Kendrick makes his first All-Star appearance & is second on the team in wins (17-18) behind Cole Hamels, who finally wins his first Cy Young award. Charlie Manual finally has an epiphany and realizes Jimmy Rollins actually CAN’T hit leadoff, instead insearting Ben Revere. Subsequently, the team goes on a winning tear and leads the league in runs scored.
schmenkman
January 3, 2013 at 10:57 am
@Dell, I can’t think of any Phillies regulars over the past few years would have fit better in the leadoff spot than wherever they actually hit in the lineup.
wbramh
January 3, 2013 at 7:34 pm
You’re right…sadly.
Ryne Duren
January 4, 2013 at 12:26 am
Dell, the real epiphany would be cholly realizing that he doesn’t manage that well during the game.
Betasigmadeltashag
January 3, 2013 at 10:07 am
Howard hits 40 hrs and he and Utley will be healthy all year and both play over 130 games Doc wins 18 Cole wins 22 Ruff has a break out season hitting 270 with 26 HRs and 99 RBIs The Phillies carrying the underdog roll they love and win the division on the 2nd to last day of the year
EricL
January 3, 2013 at 11:35 am
You forgot: …world peace occurs, cold fusion is discovered, a miraculous cure for all cancer is developed, and I marry a billionaire supermodel.
FACE
January 3, 2013 at 10:13 am
Bold Predictions
Dom Brown, Chase Utley, Darin Ruf, and Ryan Howard ALL top 30 HR’s.
J-Stroll gets traded at the deadline in favor of Freddy Galvis. Ben Revere thrives in the leadoff role, and Jimmy just no longer fits into the lineup. A pouting Jimmy hits 6th or 7th in the order and walks out one too many first pitch pop-ups.
40 steals for Revere
Mike Adams struggles to stay healthy and by the time he returns it doesn’t matter because “Big Canada” Phillipe Aumont has cemented his setup man status.
Hamels, Halladay and Lee all stay healthy, are all stars, and receive Cy Young votes…with Cliff Lee winning the award and 20 games.
If you’re going to be bold, be downright spicy and be a homer.
WS 2013, let’s fuggin’ GOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Jaron B
January 3, 2013 at 10:17 am
Full season of Utley with limits (150 games, 135 starts) – production similar to last year
Howard hits .260 with 33 HR & 115 RBI; Ruf – 22 HR; Brown – 18 HR; Mayberry 17-21 HRs
Halladay – 18 W; Lee – 19 W; Hamels – 22 W w/ at least a top 3 placement in Cy Young
Ruiz: .290 AVG, .325 OBP with 15 XBH
Adams-Papelbon produces similar results as Madson-Lidge production from ’09-’11. Pap produces similar results in ’13 as he did last year. Adams gets 40 holds in 63.2 IP.
Young hits .300 but costs Phils 5 runs defensively at third (he & Howard weren’t used effectively)
Revere hits .308 with a HR, at least 28 SB in approx. 34-40 chances, 7 has 10 IF-1Bs; the rest are regular singles, regular 2B & singles stretched into 2B with speed.
Phillies fan from Germany
January 3, 2013 at 10:41 am
@ Ian Riccaboni
To be a smart ass: Howard hitting .250 while slugging .400 with 35 HR’s would mean he would have to have at least 700 AB’s with no other XBH (175 Hits for a .250 BA, 140 Singles & 35 HR for 280 Total Bases and a .400 SLG). 😉
My bold prediction: our young Outfield with Revere, Brown and Ruf as the regulars with Mayberry getting starts against lefties in the Outfield as well as occasionally at 1st will surprise to hit a combined .280/.350/.450 and will lead us to one of the wild cards. And in October everything is possible.
Ian Riccaboni
January 3, 2013 at 10:52 am
That kind of feast or famine prediction is pretty bold, no?
Phillies fan from Germany
January 3, 2013 at 11:10 am
Pretty bold is kind of an understatement 🙂
Ken Bland
January 3, 2013 at 11:01 am
I’m “intruiged by Corey Seidman’s 2nd place take. On paper, you could build a case for the Braves being a little better, and it’s painfully normal for prognosticator’s to repeat last year’s finishes. Since it often works out differently, that would put the Phils 2nd.
My boldest thought is that Doc comes back and has a year that makes him a desirable sign for someone for 2014. I’ll skip specific guesses. Suffice to say I don’t think he’s finished. I wouldn’t call him a lock to be here all year necessarily. One Vegas book (minimum) has the Jays as WS favorites. It’d almost be funny if they need a starter at the deadline. Not to mention it’d almost be sad, too.
Might as well try for something bold. Course it’s predicated by nature by pre season ticket sales, a subject we haven’t heard much about. I believe last year, the club had 3.1 mil tix sold in advance (could be wrong). I’ll guess it’s 2.85 mil this year, assuming that 2012 figure is accurate. And I’ll guess that if the Phils have a non succressful year, attendance includes 15 non sellouts with a low of 36,000. If they win the division, or contest to the end, attendance will still be down modestly from a year ago.
I know this is Phillie related, but one step around the game is I don’t quite get all the fuss over the Angels. To keep it short, I don’t think Oakland’s pitching was a fluke, and the Angels have questions.
Sure as hell hope it’s a winning year. Stories aren’t enough.
William Rennick
January 3, 2013 at 11:43 am
The Phillies finish in third place again. They’re basically a .500 team plus or minus a game or two.
Lefty
January 3, 2013 at 12:08 pm
I will win the Daily News Home Run payoff for the first time in 40 years of playing. It will happen in the fifth inning of the game vs the Reds on May 18th, and I will pick Ben Revere.
Jim Jackson will totally screw up the pronunciation of my last name, and LA will spill his “beverage” all over himself as little Ben rounds the bases.
You said bold, what are the odds against that?
Bart Shart
January 3, 2013 at 2:22 pm
Ryan Howard will be outstanding this year , with 42 homers, 132 RBI’s and a .287 batting average. He will miss about 20 games due to needed rest and minor injuries, but will be the Howard of old.
Chase Utley will play about 110 games and hit 18 homers with 78 RBI’s and bat .271 in his last year as a player in the major leagues.
Jimmy Rollins will hit 24 homers, drive in 82 and bat .266 as the number two or five hitter. He will have a fine year in the field and play 140 games. Resting to recover from nicks and sores.
Darrin Ruf will continue to show power and discipline at the plate. He will hit 34 homers, drive in 103 and bat .276, while taking over full-time in left field.
Dom Brown will finally put it all together, hitting .307 with 22 homers and 92 RBI’s
Ben Revere will lead the NL in steals with 77, hit .299 and score 113 runs in the leadoff spot. He will learn to bunt and rack up a .372 OBP.
Michael Young will hit .276 with 15 homers and 72 RBI’s He will play solid third base.
EricL
January 3, 2013 at 3:43 pm
lol these are hilarious
Bart Shart
January 3, 2013 at 2:31 pm
Carlos Ruiz will hit .275 with 12 homers and 52 RBI’s in about 110games.
Freddy Galvis will be an offensive surprise, batting .266 with 6 homers in about 120 games,filling in at third, short and second.
Kevin Fransden will play some outfield as well as all infield positions and hit .307 with 9 homers and 42 RBI’s. He’ll play some left field, third , second and first base, when Howard rests against tough lefties.
John Mayberry will be used sparingly in the outfield mostly as a defensive replacement. He will hit
7 homers and bat .246.
Eric Kratz will fill in for Ruiz, hitting 13 homers and batting .241.
Bruce
January 3, 2013 at 2:43 pm
I see everyone is having a little fun with their “bold” predictions. I might as well get in on it.
I predict Howard and Utley will remain healthy for the entire season and have solid years. Brown and Ruf will have breakout season. Ruf wins the ROY award for his 25HRs, 85 RBIs and a .280 BA. Holliday and Hamels will contend for Cy Young award with their standout seasons. Lee will continue to have lack of run support and misplays in the infield notably at 3rd base where Young occupies the position. Lee is frustrated and fingerpoints at Young during game (chuckles), And Young continues his decline on offense. Papelbon has another stellar season as closer with 40 saves.
Finally, Phillies with renewed power hitting (Howard, Utley, Brown and Ruf) and solid pitching will manage to achieve a 90 win season enough to make the playoffs as a wild card. And since pitching wins championship in short series, the Phillies win in 6 games over the mighty Yankees (smile).
Mike
January 3, 2013 at 2:51 pm
Papelbon had a stellar season? Jordany Valdespin begs to differ.
schmenkman
January 3, 2013 at 3:03 pm
I suspect that even Jordany Valdespin knows that no reliever is perfect.
Papelbon had a very solid season — I don’t think we could have reasonably expected much better.
Lefty
January 4, 2013 at 10:38 pm
schmenkman, I agree that it’s ridiculous to pick out one or two situations, but I don’t like the downward trend on Papelbon’s velocity. Do you remember hearing any reports of injury?
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=5975&position=P&pitch=FA
Mike
January 3, 2013 at 2:50 pm
Michael Young will set the all-time record for errors in a season, and his house gets run over by a bulldozer. Oh and also he’ll hit around .225/.290/.295.
Dave P
January 3, 2013 at 2:59 pm
Non-bold prediction post-
Two things I just looked up/noticed:
– The Phillies play 10 games at American league parks, meaning 10 games of DH. Natural fit for Ryan Howard or Darin Ruf?
– The Phillies play ZERO games against the Astros this year. More importantly – they play ZERO games in late august/early september against the Astros. Playoff hopes are still alive!
Louise Logan
January 3, 2013 at 3:16 pm
I love the way FACE and Bart Shart think. Both live in somewhat of a fantasy world, but it’s their worlds, after all.
I believe that Roy Halladay comes back with a knuckleball and is absolutely magnificent while winning 20games. LEE and Hamels each win 18, while LANNON and KENDRICK 14 and 16 respectively. The bullpen is the best in baseball and we win the World Championship and really party hearty. It will be a wonderful year. (After all, I have my own fantasy world, as well). 112 wins in 2013.
steelphils
January 3, 2013 at 4:12 pm
may as well join in the “fun”….
going BOLD – here’s my 2 cents…
Halladay back to form with the big 3 all in top 12 in Cy Young voting…
Howard tops 35 homers….Utley starts all star game – then misses chunk of second half
Ruiz back to earth…,
Ruf the real deal when he can’t be ignored with a monster spring and brings home ROY award….
Brown given the chance but doesn’t make the most of it – again – and is traded
Young adjusts fine and has very solid contract year…but won’t be resigned by Phils
Rollins has a decent year, but is moved to the west coast to finish out his career
YES, Phillies win the division – Nationals don’t quite put it together again but take a Wild Card spot…won’t go so far as yet to say world champs, but if things go opposite last year,they’ll be just fine…..oh yeah, Charlie steps down and Ryne steps in (not too bold a prediction)
BeyondInfinity
January 3, 2013 at 7:43 pm
you can’t seriously let jimmy play the end of his career on another team? he’s one of the greatest phils of all time, his number should be retired if he stays here. no way we should let him go, J-Roll Rocks!!!
steelphils
January 3, 2013 at 9:29 pm
No argument that jroll is one of Phillies all time greats,but they will cut costs and have to get younger….they probably won’t bring doc back unless he takes lower base/incentive loaded contract….same with Utley if he stays healthy enough
Chuck A.
January 3, 2013 at 4:12 pm
I predicted a few weeks back that as long as Utley and Howard were in the lineup on Day 1 and played 140ish games each that they would win 90 games and get a playoff spot. And I’m sticking to that prediction.
BeyondInfinity
January 3, 2013 at 7:40 pm
i don’t want to ruin the spirit but wat if the phillies have a season just like last year and all the young guys can’t take the pressure and fail? then they would have to trade utley at the deadline cuz he doesn’t want to resign because he want to go to a winning team. and the budget will be cut so we have to loose one of the big 3 and we go in a slop just like the one after the 80’s is that even legit?
Bob in Bucks
January 3, 2013 at 8:04 pm
Not so bold –
Doc improves but does not get his ERA below 4. Lee and Hamels perform well. Kendrick ERA 3.8. Lanaan 4.4. Still solid starting pitchers. BUT one will get hurt for 60 days on DL replaced by a 5.0 ERA pitcher.
Howard gets to 250, 30 HR, 100 RBI in other words, not much. Utley hits 250, 15 HR, 50 RBI until he gets hurt in August and finished for the year and for his career. Galvis takes over at 2b and provides same production. (doubles replace the HRs).
JRoll keeps up to 2011 numbers. Young bounces back and hits .285, 20HR, 80 RBI. Replaced in games Phils are winning by Galvis until Utley is hurt.
Chooch hits .260, 5 HR without the juice.
Revere hits .275, but batting 8th his stolen bases are down to 20.
Brown finally plays an entire year hitting .265, 12 HR, 65 RBI.
Nix and Mayberry platoon in LF combining for .260, 20 HR, 55 RBI.
Ruf in minors.
Bullpen solid.
Phils win 84-87 games but can’t match the Nats at 94 wins or the Braves at 89.
schmenkman
January 3, 2013 at 9:41 pm
Bob, I’m going to get on a soapbox for a moment to illustrate the difference between one .250 average and another. In the scenario you pose, Galvis wouldn’t come close to replacing Utley’s production.
For example…
Utley: 500 PAs with .250, 15 HR, would come with 20 doubles and 51 walks based on his 2013 projection
Galvis: 500 PAs with .250, would come with 26 doubles, 7 HRs and 20 walks
Utley’s 500 PAs would be a .250/.352/.420 line (.772 OPS) and equates to 67 Runs Created
Galvis’ 500 PAs would be a .250/.282/.370 line (.652 OPS) and equates to 46 Runs Created
Utley’s production would have ranked 60th out of 143 qualifiers in 2012
Galvis’ production would have ranked 134th out of 143 qualifiers in 2012
And that’s not even accounting for the fact the Utley is a much better baserunner.
So — reeeally hoping that one doesn’t materialize.
Bob in Bucks
January 3, 2013 at 10:26 pm
Hi Schmenkman –
I did not forecast Galvis to have the same average as Utley, I said same production. I fully understand to have same production with fewer HRs means higher BA and that is what I mean. I presume you are quoting some experts projected stats but that is not my scenario. I expect continued REDUCTION in Utley’s production as noted by his lower RBI in my scenario.
Wish this was not my forecast but if you look at the trend Utley’s numbers have been worse every year for quite a while.
schmenkman
January 3, 2013 at 10:48 pm
Bob, I misunderstood. So let’s just use the ZiPS projections that were the subject of the previous article, and compare 500 PAs of each as they’re forecasted there:
Utley: .258/.358.431, with 20 doubles, 16 HR, 52 walks – would have been 60th out of 143 in 2012
Galvis: .261/.297/.379, with 26 doubles, 7 HR, 20 walks – would have been 134th out of 143
Now, maybe you think the ZiPS projections are too optimistic for Utley or too low for Galvis. I would disagree, but it’s not out of the question.
As for Utley, his numbers have been going down more because of playing time than his performance on the field. 2012 was actually somewhat better than 2011.
And of course, Utley was still one of the best second basemen in the game overall when playing, even in 2012, but perhaps that’s a whole other topic.
Bob in Bucks
January 4, 2013 at 3:03 pm
Schmenkman –
Yes, I expect lower numbers from Utley and higher numbers from Galvis. As for defense I don’t think there is even an argument. Galvis is better.
schmenkman
January 4, 2013 at 3:12 pm
In 2012, they were both very good defensively, but yes I would agree that Galvis is better.
We’ll have to agree to disagree on their offense.
"Big Ed" Delahanty
January 3, 2013 at 9:17 pm
This is a blast!
Non-bold:
Halliday regains his form, Lee finally gets good breaks, Kendrick and Lannan remain average, and Cole has another great year.
Sadly, Ruiz comes back to earth, Mayberry remains Mayberry, Young regains his form and then some, Utley regains his power and hits at least .280 in 140+ games, Rollins learns that silence is golden, Ruf, Revere, and Brown post a line similar to the ’80 lines of Luzinski, Maddox, and McBride respectively. Ryan Howard continues to regress and swing and miss at pitches down and away. Manuel continues to babble away like Foghorn Leghorn. Bullpen is solid behind Psychotron, Adams, Horst and Aumont. Bastardo continues his Jekyll and Hyde performance.
Bold:
The Phillies have two twenty game winners.
Rollins runs out every play.
The Philliesfinish second, but upset the Nats in the playoffs.
Sandberg is the new manager at the conclusion of the season.
Spicy Bold:
Revere, Ruf, and Brown become the second incarnation of the famous Phillrs outfield of Delahanty, Thompson, and Hamilton all hitting over .400 with a ridiculous slugging and on base percentage, not to mention RBIs.
Bob in Bucks
January 3, 2013 at 10:29 pm
Ed – I think you need to move your “Rollins learns that silence is golden” to Super Spicy Bold!
SouledOut1
January 4, 2013 at 12:46 am
I say that Michael Young teaches Ryan Howard how to hit to the opposite field, resulting in RyHo raising his batting average by 25 points and frustrating the defensive shift.
Secondly, I predict the Phillies find their right handed power bat, and a dynamic corner outfielder, both in two young bloods named Ruf and DomBrown.
SouledOut1
January 4, 2013 at 1:03 am
…and on a more serious note, I predict that right-handed reliever Brad Lidge gets NYC Hospital for Special Surgery’s ground breaking arm replacement surgery to pitch left-handed, and the Phillies sign him to a one year contract where he goes on to pitch scoreless 48 out of 48 LOOGY appearances through the regular season and playoffs. *arm pump* Yesssss.
Chuck A.
January 4, 2013 at 7:06 am
Above, Bob in Bucks said “Howard gets to .250, 30 HR, 100 RBI, in other words, not much.”
If Ryan Howard puts up those numbers…after (and probably still) recovering from that awful injury….I will be ecstatic. Seriously…what does this man have to do ?? …
The Original Chuck P
January 4, 2013 at 12:16 pm
People focus on the batting average… Howard, in a bad year, is better than most in a good year. He just set the bar too high with the MVP campaign. .250/35HR/115RBI is great. If he gives us that, he’s doing his job. But people see that swing and that batting average and think back to when he was younger, slimmer and doing things that no one in the history of baseball has ever done and think, “This guy is a bum… that guy was awesome.” He set the bar too high for himself and people can’t get past the batting average.
Bob in Bucks
January 4, 2013 at 3:05 pm
If you hit 4th you will get significant RBIs no matter who you are. The issue is not whether Howard is a good player, the issue is whether he is a $25 million player. For that I need better than his production.
BeyondInfinity
January 4, 2013 at 7:19 am
@steelphils, i can live with doc going i actually think we should trade him right now before he loses all of his value. and with that money go for lohse.but jimmy rollins contract isn’t that big we still could use him as a defensive sub when time gets there
brooks
January 4, 2013 at 8:08 am
That is what spring is all about as hope springs eternal..
Here is my hope list:
Howard comes back to reality (meaning 45 + hrs and a ton of RBI)
Utely plays in over 130 games, hits over .280 with close to 20 hrs
Rollins does what he has been doing only he does get on base a little more often..
Revere hits second, his average is near .300 and he steals 60 bases
Young hits 6th and hits about .300 with 20 hrs
Ruf wins ROY – hits 5th with tremendous power
Galvis is stellar in his backup role
Doc, Lee, Hamels all win over 18 games
Adams proves to be the cement and Paps saves over 40 again
Stutes is solid as a long reliever
Kendrick does what he is asked, wins 14
The not so positive – Ruiz comes way back down to earth, hits sub .250, 10 or less hrs
Brown & Mayberry (why is he still here?) finally are dropped as being totally ineffective
Nix and Kratz both struggle in their perspective backup positions
Lanan (?) struggles but wins 11
Final prediction? 89-93 wins and a WC.
Chuck A.
January 4, 2013 at 9:22 am
If you can get 14 wins and 11 wins out of your 4th and 5th starters you probably have a decent chance of making he postseason…as long as everything else is close to what is hoped for.
The Original Chuck P
January 4, 2013 at 12:11 pm
If everything happs as Brooks suggests, 89-93 wins will be laughable… you’re talking about 100 wins, easily. Three pitchers over 18 wins… the Nationals only had one last year. Can someone tell me the last time that happened (3 pitchers with 18+ wins)?
schmenkman
January 4, 2013 at 1:40 pm
@OCP — five times in the last 40 years:
1993 Atlanta Braves – Steve Avery / Tom Glavine / Greg Maddux
1991 California Angels – Jim Abbott / Chuck Finley / Mark Langston
1989 Oakland Athletics – Storm Davis / Mike Moore / Dave Stewart
1985 St. Louis Cardinals – Joaquin Andujar / Danny Cox / John Tudor
1973 Oakland Athletics – Vida Blue / Ken Holtzman / Catfish Hunter
And of course in 1971 the Orioles had four 20-game winners (Cuellar, Dobson, McNally, Palmer), and that was the first time any team had 4 with 18+ since the 1927 Yankees.
The Original Chuck P
January 4, 2013 at 2:05 pm
You da man, Schmenk!
brooks
January 4, 2013 at 10:33 am
I agree Chuck. I recall one Adam Eaton, getting 10 wins but also sporting an ERA above 5..
Just to clarify, its not my hope that Brown and Mayberry fall off the face of the earth, rather a prediction.
The Original Chuck P
January 4, 2013 at 12:07 pm
I’m typically a Howard guy… I typically don’t understand the Utley thy savior stuff but I have a feeling that Utley will outplay Howard in 2013. I think that Howard can have a .260/35HR/115 RBI season… he can almost do that in his sleep but he won’t return to MVP form unless he commits to getting in shape and rehabbing those ailments hard and being a newlywed, I just don’t know if he’ll commit to that. Utley, by comparison clearly has something to prove. He screwed the Phillies last year – we were counting on him and he left us high and dry – and no one is counting on him to be the player he was. He has nothing to lose, at this point. He takes another season off and it’s almost a foregone conclusion that he’s a Smoky Joe Wood player.
I am really hoping that Dom gets a chance to play every day – with no reservations. Just let him have the keys to the ride, take off the training wheels… let’s see what this kid is capable of as an every day starter. You have a center fielder that will take some pressure off of him defensively and a lineup around him (assuming Utley and Howard are healthy).
Lastly, the Nats are clearly the odds on favorites… I say, let them be. Let them be under the microscope and deal with the pressure of being the heavy favorites. Let’s see if that rotation can hold up. Let’s see if last year wasn’t a fluke year where a lot of things came together for them and a lot of things didn’t for us. I don’t expect any more out of Werth at this point. I don’t expect any more out of Harper (yet). I don’t expect any more out of Desmond, LaRoche, Espinosa… they’re not as far ahead of us as their record indicates… when their guys are healthy and our guys aren’t, of course they’re going to win more games. That’s a good ball club but they’re young and our guys have something to prove. Our guys have proven to be gamers and ball players. It should be a fun year.
schmenkman
January 4, 2013 at 1:32 pm
“I typically don’t understand the Utley thy savior stuff…”
I don’t know if this is the type of thing you’re referring to, but a couple things about Utley:
1) because he does a lot of things well, and plays a premium position, many statistically-minded folks consider him one of the 2 or 3 best players in baseball over the last decade.
2) his first 8 full seasons (2005-12) have been the best 8-year stretch by a second baseman not named Morgan over the past 50+ years; better than any stretch put together by Biggio, Alomar, Sandberg, Carew, etc.
brooks
January 4, 2013 at 3:09 pm
Those are some pretty classy names you dropped there Schmenkman. Alomar, Biggio, Sandberg, Carew? I don’t remember Carew’s defensive prowess but I saw Robbi Alomar numerous times and I would rate his career among the best. HOF material.
Bob in Bucks
January 4, 2013 at 3:13 pm
All kudos to Utley for the past but look at the trend –
BA
2007 – .332
2008 – .292
2009 – ..282
2010 – ..275
2011 – .259
2012 -. .256
Before you get on the BA is not everything you also know that his OPS has fallen over the same period from .976 to.793
All of this is still respectable but going in the wrong direction, not to speak of games played.
Is this a $15 million dollar second baseman? He was worth more but now less.
schmenkman
January 4, 2013 at 3:16 pm
Alomar, Sandberg, and Carew are already in the HoF, and Biggio is looking like a pretty good bet over the next few years.
Utley certainly has the Hall-worthy peak, but may not play long enough to get the big numbers that would make him a viable candidate.
The Original Chuck P
January 4, 2013 at 3:38 pm
Schmenk… I love you… but you could look at any one of the players you mentioned and make an argument that they had equal or better 8 year stretches. Rod Carew, over the course of 19 season posted better numbers than Utley’s best 8. If you cherry pick his best 8 (’72-’80), it’s not even close. Granted, Carew did switch to first but maybe Utley should have, too (it’s not like Utley was winning Gold Gloves at second base). Biggio… posted the same OPS+ as Utley between 1992 and 1999 (at second base) while missing few, if any games, winning five gold gloves and four silver sluggers. Alomar, created more runs, saved more runs, stole more bases…
I’d also argue that second base is not really a premium position… Over the past decade, you could look across baseball and fine TWO or THREE second basemen that were worth their salary which is why Utley’s WAR totals look so good (the replacement level second baseman is Robert Andino, who hit .211/.283.305 last year… heck, Jeff Keppinger posted 2.3 WAR). Historically, many of the weakest HOF selections have been second basemen. You know who the greatest first baseman of all time is. You know who the greatest catcher is. But the greatest second baseman… is it Eddie Collins? Is it Joe Morgan? Is it Rogers Hornsby (it is)?
I love Utley – in his very short prime (five years), he did a lot of things at a Hall of Fame level but he has flamed out and what really sets him aside in a historical context when you really break it down is his power as a second baseman and CBP is a band box so he loses something there (Jeff Kent is still the best pure slugging second baseman of all-time). He has missed significant time over the past three years (including last year when his lack of transparency screwed us) and has gotten a free pass by most for his decline.
The Original Chuck P
January 4, 2013 at 3:49 pm
Jeff Kent the best pure slugging second baseman besides Hornsby, of course.
Ken Bland
January 4, 2013 at 4:07 pm
Views like mine get lost in the shuffle these days since I’m not (by comfortable choice) knee deep in statistics. But in my opinion, a decent majority of scouts afforded the chance to watch Carew’s best however many seasons (5-7) who saw Utley for a similar period of time, just on player evaluation would prefer Utley. Frankly, I don’t even think they’d have a hard time deciding. Like Boggs, and Ichicro, Carew had magician capabilities with the bat. And he lashed out his share of extra base hits, but Utley had a separate power skill. There us zero comparison between the two defensively, and although math doesn’t allow for it, even less as a baserunner. It’s not that Carew or Boggs should be subject to criticism, it’s just that they masterfully excelled in limited ways, as opposed to all arounbd game.
Even if Utley doesn’t make the Hall, so what? You have to be crazy not to think you didn’t get5 to see a bonafide Hall of Fame player for a decent length of time right before your eyes, and they don’t come down the pike too often.
Different positions, but in a comparison of George Brett and Utley, I’d take Brett by the same margin I’d take Utley over Carew for the same quantitly of peak years.
schmenkman
January 4, 2013 at 4:09 pm
“Is this a $15 million dollar second baseman? He was worth more but now less.”
Yes. Yes, he is. Even with the missed time, over the last two years he has produced about 3.5 WAR per year, and on the free agent market, on average 3.5 WAR is worth more than $15 mil per year.
Obviously, no one would disagree that Utley is not the player he used to be — that’s not up for debate.
What I am saying is that he is still an elite player when he’s on the field, and very valuable even when you ding him for the missed time.
You’re right to separate the two things that make him value: 1) how he does on the field, and 2) how much he is actually on the field
So how does he do when he plays? Over the last two years (despite batting averages of .259 and .256), these are the top 6 second basemen in WAR per 162 games:
Cano 6.8, Pedroia 6.8, Zobrist 6.5, Utley 6.3, Kinsler 5.6, Phillips 5.5
For a frame of refence, there were 14 players in MLB who had WAR of 6 or more in 2012.
How is he still so good in spite of batting averages in the .250s?
1) he gets on a lot — 4th highest OBP among all second basemen the last two years
2) he still plays excellent defense — 2nd behind only Pedroia over the last two years
3) he’s one of the best baserunners in the game — 2nd behind only Kinsler at 2B
So the key with him remains staying on the field for 130-140 games.
schmenkman
January 4, 2013 at 5:00 pm
Carew: his best 8 years as 2nd baseman, before moving to 1st in 1976, were 1968-1975:
OPS+ 132, but below average defense, and ok but not great baserunning (39 fWAR)
Utley in 2005-12: OPS+ 130, excellent fielder, excellent baserunner (52 fWAR)
So about equal as hitters, but Utley was a much better fielder and baserunner
Biggio: 1992-99: OPS+ 130, average defense, good base running (47 fWAR)
Alomar: 1994-2001: OPS+ 125, average defense, good base running (37 fWAR)
And Kent was as good a hitter as Utley, but not better. And he didn’t come close to Utley’s fielding or base running.
“Granted, Carew did switch to first but maybe Utley should have, too (it’s not like Utley was winning Gold Gloves at second base).”
Utley should have been winning GGs. By various advanced fielding metrics, Utley has been one of the best (if not the best) fielding second basemen of the last decade.
“I’d also argue that second base is not really a premium position… Over the past decade, you could look across baseball and fine TWO or THREE second basemen that were worth their salary”
I think you’re proving my point. If it’s that hard to find good-hitting second basemen, then by definition it’s a premium position. Since 1990 (23 years), the only positions with a lower OPS have been catcher and SS. So in other words in terms of positions where teams have been most willing to sacrifice offense, second base is behind only C and SS.
“… and CBP is a band box”
CBP is actually one of the most neutral parks in baseball, overall. It does help lefties some to hit home runs (but not so much for hitting overall), but it hurts righties. Utley has in fact hit better at home (.921 OPS) than on the road (.832). Hitters on average have a 30 point home advantage.
Brooks
January 4, 2013 at 5:14 pm
“Alomar: 1994-2001: OPS+ 125, average defense, good base running (37 fWAR)”
8 Gold gloves, average?
Brooks
January 4, 2013 at 5:18 pm
Oh, I’m sorry, Alomar won 10 Gold Gloves at 2b – 10..
Average defense??
schmenkman
January 4, 2013 at 5:34 pm
I am not of the opinion that gold gloves always (or even more often than not) go to the best fielder.
By the advanced stat Total Zone, he had years when he was decent, but just as often he was around average or a little below:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alomaro01-field.shtml
George
January 4, 2013 at 5:16 pm
OCP:
Why wouldn’t Howard have as much to prove as Utley, and why would he not be in shape now that he can actually do the workout routines he couldn’t do last year because of his injury? He’s always been a hard worker, and I doubt if marriage will have any negative impact on that.
Brooks
January 4, 2013 at 3:34 pm
Agreed – a few more seasons and Utley might a strong arguement for the HOF himself.
My point was that I don’t think I would agree that Utley has been more productive than Alomar, although different type players alike in how well they produced for their teams
Ken Bland
January 4, 2013 at 4:24 pm
“Charlie steps down and Ryne steps in (not too bold a prediction)”
Two things stand out this off season in generalizing reader thoughts and reactions. Like his 2013 year forthcoming, Darin Ruf’s numbers would do splendidly at an auction. People play can you top this as we see estimates getting up higher by the week. Ask those who think Ruf’s middle name is ROY who it is he’ll beat out for the honor, and you’ll get blank stares.
Then there’s this common thought about Charlie yielding to Ryne Sandberg by OD, 2014.
Suffice to say I love Ryno since way back when, and his lack of “manager” on his business card sucks, reminding me of a guy I thought deserved a chance a long time ago (Bobby Wine) that for whatever reason, never happened.
No question, the Phils think highly of Sandberg. When Dallas Green says he’s scared to death of losing him again, that’s comment enough for me. But I do have to ask if the Phils were that groom driven on tracking RS as a successor, why is he not the bench coach? It isn’t like they have a better qualified bench coach in his stead. Besides that, even if we presume this is Charlie’s last year, it’s not necessarily too smart to ignore other candidates that might evolve by year end. It could very easily be a much more open field than people expect. If it does indeed become a year of change.
Louis
January 4, 2013 at 7:38 pm
The Phillies will come in second place in 2013. The Nats are the team to beat, but the Phillies are better than the Braves. BJ Upton in center for the Braves is a downgrade from Bourn last season, so Atlanta has not really improved their team at all over the offseason. The Phillies go into 2013 with a healthy Howard, Utley and Halladay and a MUCH improved bullpen (2.89 second half ERA, plus the addition of Mike Adams, and the experience the young relievers gained last year).. If all goes well, Michael Young is an upgrade over Polanco, and Revere + Two Platoons can produce as well (hopefully better) than the Phillies outfielders did in 2012.
"Big Ed" Delahanty
January 4, 2013 at 8:57 pm
Utley and Carew are two completely different 2nd basemen. Carew is a pure hitter, devoid of power, and not a great fielder. However, the guy has over 3,000 hits and a career .328 average! I know that average is not a as mighty these days as WAR, fWAR, etc., but I’d love to have the guy hitting in my line-up – especially the year he hit .388 and had a 100 RBIs.
Utley is a different player. He is an all-around hitter and fielder, demonstrating high levels of achievement across the board in both hitting and fielding.
Overall, Carew isn’t in the top ten for all-around second basemen, but he is one of the all-time great hitters of the past few decades, and is in the same company as the best hitters of all-time.
Quote about Carew:
“How’d Carew do today?”
“He went 4 for 3.” (not a typo)
"Big Ed" Delahanty
January 4, 2013 at 9:12 pm
Before I get ripped on, I do know that Carew moved to first. I just don’t see the two positions as being so astronomically different.
@ Bob in Bucks: you are correct that that should be a super spicy bold prediction!
@ Original Chuck P: I concur that Rogers Hornsby is the best second basemen ever.
For fun:
“That god damned Dutchman (Honus Wagner) is the only man in the game I can’t scare.”
– Ty Cobb
schmenkman
January 4, 2013 at 9:35 pm
historically, this is the defensive spectrum:
easier to field, harder to field,
so more good hitters ……. so fewer good hitters
….. 1B — LF — RF — 3B — CF — 2B — C — SS
first base and second base are pretty different
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7689 (go to the end)
schmenkman
January 4, 2013 at 9:38 pm
mangled that – let’s try again:
1B – easier to field, so more good hitters
LF …
RF
3B
CF
2B
C
SS – harder to field, so fewer good hitters
"Big Ed" Delahanty
January 5, 2013 at 2:54 pm
Interesting point. I agree with the outfield positions at the top for producing better hitters, since they are easier to field. However, there are 18 1B players in the Hall of Fame and 19 2B players, not much difference there, and both lists have some heavy hitting players. I would view the chain more like this:
Easier to field, so more good hitters ->harder to field, so fewer good hitters
LF RF CF 1B 2B 3B C SS
schmenkman
January 5, 2013 at 3:28 pm
Ed, the way I think about it is this:
When players get older and they lose mobility, do they move from first base to left field? No, much more often they move from left field to first base.
Brooks
January 4, 2013 at 10:17 pm
Once again, you are going by statistics that can tell multiple stories. It’s not the first time you’ve taken that position. Not by what players who have been around for a long time, scouts or managers have said about Robbi Alomar nor does it sound like you ever had the priveledge of watching one of the greatest defensive 2nd basemen of all time. Not my words Schmenk, echoed from players who have seen the best and tell it like they see it.
Sure, some GG winners are sometimes a joke, Bobby Abreua getting one for instance or who was it? Eddie Murray got one at first base when he played 1 game at first all year long. But we are talking about 10 GG awards, more than any 2nd basemen in the history of the game.
So, keep to your stats bud, I’m sure they justify your logic for a few. Those of who were able to watch this guy play are keenly aware of what he was able to do on the field.
schmenkman
January 4, 2013 at 11:06 pm
I’ll stand by the stats. Being sure handed and making the occasional flashy play (think Derek Jeter) does not make for a great fielder, but it can be enough to get you a reputation, and once you get the reputation, the gold gloves keep coming. How much time and thought does a manager invest in filling out a Gold Glove ballot? Not much, I would bet.
Did Alomar make more plays than other second basemen? The stats show he made more than some, and less than others, and overall was about average.
brooks
January 5, 2013 at 2:50 am
I can only stand by the stats when reading about Roger Hornsby or some of the other great old time 2nd basemen but, how does that measure up to what his peers have to say about his play during that time?
Point is, read all the statistics in the world, come up with your own conclusion but to say that Robbi Alomars defense was just OK? That sir, is your opinion – one who it seems never did get to see him play.
Lefty
January 4, 2013 at 11:03 pm
I think we may be missing something here with Roberto Alomar. Maybe it’s something tougher to measure like agility or BBIQ. We all know the defensive stats haven’t been perfected yet, there are so many differing opinions on how to properly measure them. I have no doubt with the work that’s being done with video tracking, that will improve.
Alomar was, for the few years that I saw him play, an absolutely supreme fielder. Did he carry that through his whole career? I don’t know. But in the years that I saw him play with the Orioles and Indians, he was an elite second baseman.
Bob in Bucks
January 4, 2013 at 11:23 pm
We may have to get a separate blog just on Chase Utley and comparative second basemen.
We all agree he was great in his early years and was headed to the HOF. We have different opinions as to where he goes from here.
A final note – Utley’s WAR is effected greatly by his OBP which is affected by his “HPB” which I put in quotes because the guy is a master at leaning his back into pitches. Also, he is very patient and walks a lot. All of this was great but with Ryan Howard and “fill in the blank” behind him this is no longer a winning combination for the Phillies. If his power continues to wane what do you think about him at leadoff?
schmenkman
January 4, 2013 at 11:57 pm
I’d be open to Utley batting leadoff, although I think Manuel likes more of a base stealer there.
This is a post I wrote about a year ago on his place in history:
http://www.thegoodphight.com/2012/2/2/2715299/chase-utley-and-50-years-of-second-basemen
Updated for the highest 8-year WAR since 1960 below. This is fangraphs WAR; the rankings with baseball reference WAR would be the same:
67.0 – Morgan (70-77)
51.7 – Utley (05-12)
46.2 – Biggio (92-99)
45.0 – Grich (72-79)
42.8 – Sandberg (84-91)
Ken45
January 5, 2013 at 10:46 am
Howard always slugs at least .400. Surely, Ian Riccaboni meant to write .500. I’m looking for 260/340/460 with 25+ HR from Ruf.