Former Phils Face Long HOF Odds in 2013 one of the more interesting projects out there, the Baseball Think Factory has gone through the trouble of collecting the publicly announced ballots of the voting sec of the Baseball Writers Association of America and projecting the percentage of Hall of Fame votes each player will receive.

Note: Because the announcement of induction will be made tomorrow, ballots are rapidly becoming public. This references percentages from a snapshot in time and may not reflect what their real time statistics say.

The surprising but not super unsurprising news: the Baseball Think Factory does not project anyone to be inducted in 2013. There is good news for individual players: Craig Biggio projects to be the closest to induction with his infield mate Jeff Bagwell right behind him, while Tim Raines‘s numbers continue to climb after a disappointing first year on the ballot. The news for former Phillies, however, is not so great. Here’s a look at their odds.

Curt Schilling

A three-time All-Star with the Phillies, sometimes it is easy to forget the outspoken, Alaskan-born righty was once in red and white pinstripes. Schilling’s breakout season came in 1992, posting a 2.35 ERA as a swing-man for the Phillies. Schilling started 26 games, throwing 10 complete games, but also threw in 16 games as a reliever, leading baseball with a 0.990 WHIP.

Schilling was dominant with the Phils after four seasons of shuttling back and forth between the Majors and Triple-A, three with Baltimore and one with Houston. While it is particularly easy to remember Schilling’s childish behavior during the 1993 World Series or his outspokeness in his desire to leave town, Schilling posted a 101-78 record, with a 3.35 ERA and 61 CG for the Phillies for atrocious clubs.

Schilling’s 216-146 win/loss record isn’t as sexy as it could be, in part, because of his time on bad Phillies’ teams, but the following stats are: his 4.38 to 1 K/BB ratio is the best ever since 1884 and his 11-2 record with a 2.23 ERA in the postseason is the stuff of legends. Yes, Schilling never won the Cy Young, but his two of his three second place finishes came behind two even historically greater years from Randy Johnson. Schilling is 17th all-time in Baseball-Reference’s version of Win Probability Added and 26th all time among pitchers for bWAR, 63rd among all players.

Schilling passes the eye test and the extra exam: he looks and feels like a Hall of Famer and has a series of memorable post-seasons to add to his regular seasons (1993 NLCS, 2001 WS, 2004 post-season). He will get in eventually but it probably won’t be this year according to Baseball Think Factory. The more interesting question will be what hat does he wear when he gets inducted: his most memorable moments came as a Red Sox but he spent the largest chunk of his career with the Phillies. 2013 projected vote share: 37.6%

Dale Murphy

Murph is in his fifteenth year in the ballot, an accomplishment that is as remarkable as it must be frustrating for Murphy. Last year, Murphy racked up 83 votes, his highest tally in 11 years. In his final year on the ballot, Murphy’s family has gotten involved, launching a pretty touching on-line campaign, detailed here by Jerry Crasnick, where Murphy’s wife and children have been making the appeal that so often the character clause is used to exclude players from the Hall of Fame but it is rarely exercised to put players in the Hall of Fame.

The voting pattern for Murphy has been, well, crazy. Murphy reached 23.2% in 2000, only to drop to 8.5% by 2004. Last year’s 14.5% mark was his highest since 2002 (14.8%). Murphy’s credentials obviously haven’t changed since then, but it seems to be more of a trend of persons who extensively covered Murphy dropping out of the Hall of Fame voting pool rather than voters deciding not to vote for Murphy.

Murphy has a lot of hardware: two consecutive MVPs, five straight Gold Gloves, and four straight Silver Sluggers. Murphy is also very lucky that his best ten years were comfortable nestled inside an easy to digest decade. Advanced stats don’t reflect as favorably on Murphy as they do Schilling: Murphy ranks tied for bWAR’s 358th all time, between J.D. Drew on the low end and Mark Grace on the high end.

Murphy hung around long enough to spend two and a half years with the Phillies, narrowly missing their 1993 pennant run. Any contribution in 1992 from Murphy could, and likely, would have accelerated their growth, but Murphy reached the plate just 63 times in 1992, battling a series of knee injuries, leaving the playing time in right to mostly Ruben Amaro and Wes Chamberlain, but also Braulio Castillo Jim Linderman, and Tom Marsh. Yikes.

My question with Murphy is: how much does the electorate penalize Murphy for not being the clear best of a very weak decade? If not much, Murphy, along with Raines, should be on the cusp of induction but narrowly miss this year. If a lot, Murphy should reasonable get around 30% of the vote. 2013 projected vote share: 21.6%

Kenny Lofton

Four players on this list will likely fall off the ballot this year. One definitely will (Murphy) regardless of what happens and the most undeserving is Lofton, one of the least deserved “one and done” Hall of Fame ballot appearances ever. Lofton racked up six straight All-Star appearances, four straight Gold Gloves, ten years of 30 steals or more, and a career triple-slash line of .299/.372/.423. How does a lead-off hitter who got on base nearly 40% of the time not get in the Hall?

Lofton is 104th among players all-time in bWAR and 113th among hitters all-time for fWAR, just ahead of Billy Hamilton and Shoeless Joe Jackson and just below Richie Ashburn and Mike Piazza. Lofton’s second most comparable player according to B-R is Tim Raines – should Raines get in, which I believe he will, Lofton’s candidacy in turn will get stronger. But Lofton faces the very real possibility of falling off of the ballot completely this year with the glut of deserving first-time eligible players.

So what exactly hurts Lofton’s chances? The fact that there are well more than ten first-time and greater eligible players that quite frankly are also Hall of Famer caliber. It is not Lofton’s one season as a Phillie (3.9 fWAR), but Lofton is hurt by the fact that he was on many good teams but never consistently on one team and never won a World Series. Falling just below 2,500 hits probably hurt as well. 2013 projected vote share: 2.4%

Jose Mesa

Mesa is the Phillies all-time saves leader, racking up 112 from 2001 through 2003. Mesa will likely fell well short of returning to the ballot in 2014 and risks getting no votes with an unusually crowded group of first timers (24 players). Mesa was an All-Star just twice and has the 14th most saves of all-time with Lee Smith, third all-time, on the ballot, barely gaining any traction. 2013 projected vote share: 0%, although he may receive a vote or two from the Ohio contingent

Jeff Conine

Most of Conine’s professional baseball identity is that of a Marlins player. The face of their franchise until he was traded to Kansas City in the Great Roster Purge of 1998, Conine was twice the Marlins’ All-Star representative and returned to the team via trade in 2003 to be a part of their second championship run. Conine was a spark-plug in 2006 for the Phillies, contributing a .280/.327/.390 in 107 PA down the stretch, as the Phillies fell short of catching the Wild Card-winning Dodgers by three games.

Conine’s surprisingly solid .285/.347/.443 line with 214 HR is definitely not good enough to place him among the greats but, like Mesa, is almost a guarantee to be once-and-done. Unlike Mesa, Conine will likely end up with a vote or two from the Florida contingent of voters. 2013 projected vote share (from BTT): 0%, although, I believe he will get one or two votes.



  1. Ken Bland

    January 8, 2013 at 2:44 pm

    What weird year for the Hall. Some guys sharing allots report little problem voting affirmatively for the max of 10, and yet, it looks like Nobody’s going in. That baseball newsstand link that tracks reported ballots has shown gradual slippage in recent weeks. 23% in, Biggio’s ahead of the field at 70. When Schill left here, his chances of going to the Hall were pretty minimal, now, lock’s not the right word, of course, but he sure looks likely to get in not too many years into his candidacy. Shows how premature it is to think about Hamels chances someday, but at least he’s positioned himself to be discussable with a pretty decent base from which to elevate.

    You could build a case for Schill as a Phillie, but I think he’ll go in as a Red Sox. I say Morris V Schilling, 1 game, pitch til you drop, winner gets enshrined. Be a nice matchup.

    • Ryan H.

      January 8, 2013 at 3:41 pm

      Ryan Howard has a outside chance too if he can stay healthy and in shape (unlike the last few years). he could easily finish with something close to 600 homers if he manages to stay healthy.

      • Ryan H.

        January 8, 2013 at 3:42 pm

        not to mention his 05 rookie of the year followed by his 06 MVP year, which I really believe is one of the best power hitting years we’ve seen ever in this game.

      • EricL

        January 8, 2013 at 11:01 pm

        lol, Howard wasn’t even the best player on his team in ’06, nor was he the best hitting first baseman in the National League that year.

        .313/.425/.659, wOBA .436
        .331/.431/.671, wOBA .447

        Pujols hit for more power than did Howard (and also got on base more frequently and had a better batting average), and did it while playing very good defense and providing decent base running, neither of which Howard did.

  2. Ryan H.

    January 8, 2013 at 3:40 pm

    in my mind, schilling is definitely a hall of famer. beyond just looking at his stats, which definitely qualify him alone, he was also involved in some of the greatest post-season drama of all time. once with Arizona and again with Boston a few years later. both times defeating the yankees in movie script type dramatic fashion. he’s in my hall.

    as for the steroid guys, I’m glad the writers aren’t voting them in. I don’t want to see the in. they should not be honored for nearly destroying the integrity of the game. if pete rose and shoeless joe jackson can’t get in, these cheaters shouldn’t even be in the question.

    • Chuck A.

      January 8, 2013 at 3:46 pm

      Yeah, but Ty Cobb killed a guy and he’s in.

      • Ryne Duren

        January 9, 2013 at 8:53 am

        common chuck! cobb only killed him once! most of the steroid guys did it all the time. just kiddin about the killing. the thought came about after thinking about the movie ” johnny dangerously” with mike keaton. where he hangs the hitman joe piscipo on a hook on the door and he points his finger at johnny and says ” my grandmudder hung me on a hook ONCE , ONCE! he says while pointing his finger at johnny. later in the movie piscipo gets kicked in the balls. and he says the same thing only with agrimmace that it was his fadder who did it ONCE. very funny stuff chuck. but i do get your point though.

  3. Ryan H.

    January 8, 2013 at 3:44 pm

    I got a former phil you forgot to mention, Jim Thome. a guy who is probably the best (clean) power hitter of his generation. and one of the greatest of all time. he is a without a doubt, first ballot HOFer

    • George

      January 8, 2013 at 10:44 pm

      Thome is a likely candidate, but he won’t be eligible until five years after he retires. He hasn’t officially done that yet.

    • EricL

      January 8, 2013 at 11:02 pm

      How do you know Thome is “clean?”

      How do you know anyone else, aside from those who admitted it, were “dirty?”

      • Ryan H.

        January 10, 2013 at 2:32 pm

        once thing I look at is consistency and injuries. guys who juiced had enormous stats that skyrocketed through the roofs and then fell off very fast when their bodies fell apart from being overly muscled. Thome had very consistent numbers throughout his career. the trajectory is very normal and reliable.

      • schmenkman

        January 10, 2013 at 2:43 pm

        “skyrocketed through the roofs and then fell off very fast”

        like Norm Cash and Tommy Davis?

        “Thome had very consistent numbers throughout his career. the trajectory is very normal and reliable.”

        like Piazza and Bagwell?

        No, I don’t think we can tell by looking at their stats.

  4. Andrew from Waldorf

    January 8, 2013 at 4:50 pm

    Howard is 32 and broke down and has 300 career homers.

    Why would anyone post that he can get to 600?
    He will end his career closer to 300 than 600. You can put that in the bank.

    Mr. Rourke and tattoo tell you?

    The Schmidt era was when I was a kid so I dont really knwo about any dislike for him. But there is no comparision between he and Howard.

    Schmidt has better offensive numbers. And that includes Schmidt playing into his late 30s. If Howard conitinues on his percentages will contine to slide.

    Schmidt is also the greatest defensive 3rd baseman of all time. Yes better than Brooks.

    Howard is a liabilty in every aspect of the game ( minus hitting when he used to be able to). The worst fielder and base runner Ive ever seen on a daily basis.

    Howard had an .835 OPS in 2011. Before the injury.
    .718 last year.

    I am just pointing out facts about Howard. I have no hatred.
    He is actually a good guy.

    It is 100% not his fault for his contract and I have no animoisty towards him for it.
    But that doesnt change the fact that it is the worst in baseball and a franchise killer.

    The contract and his play are because of the franchise. A GM who wants to please the dullard average fan.
    You have a manager who says we dont take walks.
    Howard is a product of his situation.
    A symptom of a team on the decline.
    The glaring example.
    Hatred? No chance.
    Just the reality of what Ive seen with my own eyes. Not rose colored love my team. They are the best eyes but reality.

    Schilling will goto the HOF and will deserve it.
    Outside of Philly though no one even remembers he was a Phillie. He is a diamond back and a Red sock.

    Murphy no. Kind of close.

    Lofton for me is a yes and closer than Murphy.

    Conine no chance.

    Mesa LOLOLOL

    Ty Cobb never killed anyone. Part of history though I guess.
    He is the only player with Babe Ruth in the discsuion for greatest player ever.
    I tend to even give it to Cobb over Ruth.
    But its 6 of one half a dozen of another.
    If I could go back in a time machine to watch one player play in his prime. It would be Cobb.

    • Ian Riccaboni

      January 8, 2013 at 5:04 pm

      What stinks, Andrew, is that Lofton will not only not make it this year but is likely off the ballot after this year. Wow…

    • Ken Bland

      January 8, 2013 at 8:48 pm

      It’s pretty funny how people are even drawing Schmidt into the conveersation relative to Howar’d Q rating as a player in that the Schmidt generation, in assessing his getting booed drew comparisons to a generation before in the person of Del Ennis. The years explain the difficulty in linking Ennis to Howard, but for whatever reason there’s not a complete lovefest, I’d be quite surprised if there arem’t common denominators between Ennis and Howard, too.

      I think the level of high expectation based on skill more than money drives it, although both Schmidt and Howard signed deals that the common man in general were blown away by.

      MLB Network is running the movie Cobb on Monday night.

  5. davehist

    January 8, 2013 at 5:16 pm

    Murphy should go in but I guess he won’t. Biggio and Bagwell will go in, but in future years. I don’t know about Schilling, but I certainly remember that night in Vet Stadium in ’93, after the 15-14 debacle, when Schilling absolutely throttled the Blue Jays in a two-hit shutout. That night he WAS a Hall of Famer.

  6. Jeff of Nova

    January 8, 2013 at 6:52 pm

    Man Andrew the Howard hating gets old, I agree he will not get 600 but if and it is a big if, he can get focused and work on slimming down and work on some plate discipline with Henderson than we easily can see the Howard of old.

    • Ryan H.

      January 10, 2013 at 2:34 pm

      yea. I mistyped . meant to say 500. he obviously has no shot at 600. but 500 is possible. lets say he plays 7 more years. he’d have to average 28 homers a year over that span to make 500. definitely possible if he stays healthy. in fact, I still believe he is capable of hitting 50 homers this upcoming season if he’s healthy.

  7. Pearl Dennehey

    January 8, 2013 at 7:06 pm

    For gosh sake, what about Von Hayes and Dickie Thon? These guys were real good and deserve consideration.

  8. Lefty

    January 8, 2013 at 8:00 pm

    For my money on the Think Factory list, Biggio and Tim Raines are sure fire HOFer’s eventually. Doesn’t look like anyone gets in this year. I would not vote for anyone associated with steroids, just my opinion- one that I will never be talked out of. Doesn’t matter I don’t have a vote anyway.

    For those that question “greenies” taken by players before the new drugs became popular. IMO- They are not the same as HGH and Andro. I’ve read that greenies got them through long hard drinking nights and hangovers, and helped with late season soreness, but did not make them stronger or give long term endurance.

    As for former Phils- I think Schilling has a chance, post season play gets a “high remembrance” factor, bringing back heroic images of the Red Sawx bloody sock and the Dback Series.

  9. George

    January 8, 2013 at 11:00 pm

    I’m a little bit irked every year when the balloting occurs. In those years when there are more candidates, adjustments need to be made with the voting percentages so that people like Lofton don’t fall off the ballot right away.

    To me, it’s not the choices that are stupid, it’s the system of making those choices.

  10. The Original Chuck P

    January 9, 2013 at 12:02 pm

    Kenny Lofton falling off the ballot would be a just another indictment against what the Hall of Fame has become… a popularity contest and an opportunity for the media pundits to show off their SABR badges. I’m working on a post which discusses the state of the Hall of Fame and what it actually takes to get into the Hall of Fame… if you ask baseball people about the Hall of Fame, the most common thing you’ll hear is that it’s watered down but if you analyze what’s happening, it’s really hard to figure out what voters are actually looking for. If Jack Morris gets in this year and Craig Biggio does not, I will be the first person to ask what it takes to get in. Larry Walker… legitimate 5 tool player (162 averages of +100 R, +100 RBI, 19 SB… one of 17 players in history to triple-slash .300/.400/.500), MVP winner, multiple gold gloves, multiple silver sluggers, great postseason numbers… not getting support because home/away splits. Edgar Martinez… redefined the game as a DH (another .300/.400/.500 guy)… not getting support because he didn’t play the field. So you have one guy… one of the best RF arms in history, multiple GG’s… not getting in because his offensive numbers were inflated and another not getting in because, although he excelled at his position, his position didn’t require him to field so poo-poo to you. Those two have HOF monitor scores better than 130… but their support is not going to increase because the media has pigeon holed themselves with this whole PED mess. You take a stance against Bonds/Sosa, et. al., you can’t possibly let in the other guys because, when you compare them side by side, there is no comparison. It’s a mess…

  11. The Original Chuck P

    January 9, 2013 at 12:53 pm

    The crap I’m reading from people with real, actual votes is disgusting…

  12. Clueless Greg Pinto

    January 9, 2013 at 8:42 pm

    Imagine writing an article for Bleacher Report on Tug McGraw ( as though you are an expert ) and describe him as an “eccentric RIGHT-HANDED reliever”

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