Free Agency

CBS Crew Predicts Splash for Phils in Offseason

Danny Knobler of CBS thinks the Phillies will make a splash with Ellsbury this offseason.

CBS Sports’ team of experts took to the web to predict the destination of some of baseball’s top free agents. A few of their panel had the Phillies making a move to solidify their outfield. Danny Knobler was, perhaps, the boldest, predicting the Phillies would sign Jacoby Ellsbury:

KnoblerPhillies. Could he leave? Could they let him go? Yes. Desperate Phillies step up and sign him.

Meanwhile, Jon Heyman, Scott Miller, and Dayn Perry all predicted a slightly smaller splash in right handed outfielder Nelson Cruz:

HeymanPhillies. Philly is desperate for outfield help after recent personnel errors there.

MillerPhillies. After Delmon Young last year, the Phillies can’t swing and miss in the outfield again, can they?

Very interesting – this may be the most up-in-the-air offseason for the Phillies in quite some time.

53 Comments

53 Comments

  1. Hogey's Role

    November 2, 2013 at 1:07 pm

    From what I understand Cruz will be offered a q.o. And in my opinion he isn’t worth losing our number two pick, I’d have to look a lot further into him before I would sign him…
    And I definately do not want ellsbury, we already got one of Boston’s outcasts on an overpay, do we really want a second

    • RubenGoodSandwich

      November 2, 2013 at 4:29 pm

      From everything Ryne, Ruben & even Bowa have said/been saying, I don’t think Phi goes for anymore defensively challenged OF’ers. So pretty sure CBS is wrong about Cruz. Ellsbury probably becomes too expensive for a left-handed, speed player. My crystal ball tells me that Phi will acquire Ryan Braun & Aramis Ramirez from the Brewers in a salary dump trade.

      • Hogey's Role

        November 2, 2013 at 5:56 pm

        I don’t want Ramirez and I really don’t want Braun, he’s a piece of garbage

      • Pops

        November 2, 2013 at 7:21 pm

        That’s simply not going to happen.

      • EricL

        November 2, 2013 at 9:49 pm

        OH GOD I would LOOOVE Ryan Braun. He would be an absolutely great fit. Unfortunately, that’s not happening.

        Hogey, you know Ruiz, Bastardo and Frandsen have all been suspended for PEDs, right? And Brett Myers was an abusive wife beater? I hope you’ve never rooted for any of them! Gotta be consistent, right?

        I say who cares? Braun used some stuff he wasn’t supposed to and lied about it. He got caught and served his punishment. End of story. Regardless of all that the guy can flat out rake and is on a fairly team-friendly contract and would fit in perfectly as a RH OF.

      • Hogey's Role

        November 2, 2013 at 10:25 pm

        Except for Braun got caught twice and denied and lied both times and only got a 65 game suspension…. He’s a joke, and he probably can’t rake without the roids, so i would rather take our chances without him

      • Billy Been

        November 3, 2013 at 7:16 am

        Former 3N for the Phillies said this, ” Let ’em use it. All this suspension is garbage, if they wanna get money, let ’em use it. If they wanna win the World Series, let ’em use it.” And I agree this is all junk. Ryan Braun was MVP, wanna know why. He used PED, obviously. He wanted to win something (Considering they were the Brewers) because he wanted o represent his team.

      • EricL

        November 3, 2013 at 10:14 am

        Braun absolutely can rake without the banned substances because if that’s what banned substances do to you, why don’t Freddy Galvis and Kevin Frandsen rake?

        They don’t give you better hand-eye coordination. They don’t give you better pitch recognition. They don’t make you better at guessing what the opposing pitcher is going to throw. They don’t make you a completely different ballplayer. They add muscle and speed recovery, basically. That’s it. Ryan Braun is an elite hitter regardless of the stuff he’s putting into his body, and over the next 7 years his average salary will be only $16.14 million dollars. That’s an absolute steal.

        And yes, he served his suspension for lying about the using and getting caught. He got more games than anyone not named Rodriguez because it was the 2nd time, and like I said, he served his punishment. Baseball players do worse things that get less punishment all the damn time (DUIs, Domestic assaults (or both, Miguel Cabrera), anti-semitic comments, rape, etc.) and baseball welcomes them back with open arms. It should be the same for banned substances (actually taking a banned pill should be looked at less severely than all those things, but that’s a discussion for another day).

      • Hogey's Role

        November 3, 2013 at 10:23 am

        You know that for a fact? You’ve done all the scientific studies to proof that PEDs have no effect on an ability to hit a baseball??
        Outstanding work sir!!

      • EricL

        November 3, 2013 at 10:40 am

        No, I didn’t conduct the studies, but I can read those who do. There are actually no scientific studies that prove banned substances improve performance in baseball players. Almost all of the “evidence” for their benefit is anecdotal. (Which is why I prefer the term “banned substances” over “PEDs,” as the “performance enhancing” part is far from certain)

        You didn’t answer the question. If banned substances improve performances so much, why has Freddy Galvis always hit like a gnat? Why isn’t Kevin Frandsen the infield version of Ryan Braun? Why did Everth Cabrera get suspended for being involved in the biogenesis scandal yet over his career he’s hit only .252 and knocked only 9 HR in nearly 1600 plate appearances (and one of those was an inside the park HR!)? The evidence that taking banned substances turns an average player into a star is non-existent.

      • Hogey's Role

        November 3, 2013 at 10:58 am

        The other players you listed may be below average players actually and PEDs maybe turned them into average players…. Braun maybe an above average player and PEDs turned him into a star, the guy is a cheater and a liar and the mere fact that you support and approve of his behavior says an awful lot about your character, my friend!
        Congratulations

      • EricL

        November 3, 2013 at 11:32 am

        Yes, my character is awful because I don’t care what a person puts in his or her own body, and have instead repeatedly pointed out that there are things that baseball doesn’t care about which are orders of magnitude worse for people and society, like driving drunk, rape, domestic abuse, anti-Semitism, etc.

        Yes, silly me and my faulty moral compass.

      • Hogey's Role

        November 3, 2013 at 1:53 pm

        Cheating and lying are fine but you draw the line at the rest of that stuff is essentially what you’re saying…
        None of that stuff is ok, but anything short of drunk driving and rape, EricL is ok with, lying and cheating is fair game but don’t get caught with your pants down kids!!

      • EricL

        November 3, 2013 at 7:19 pm

        I didn’t say it’s fine, I just said that he paid the penalty that is required.

        It’s more like a hooking or slashing call in hockey. You’re not allowed to do it, and if you do you get sent off for a bit to serve your penalty. Same thing happens with real crimes that actually hurt people. You’re forced to pay for your actions and then you’re allowed back out into society. Braun has served his suspension. What more would you have him do?

        I don’t care if a player lies because who cares what players say? I don’t follow baseball to hear the musings and comments of all these dudes. I couldn’t care less what they have to say. They’re not role models, they’re guys who are really good at baseball, and I like watching players who are really good at playing baseball. If they tell fibs in their press conferences, good for them. They don’t owe the general public a truthful response to any question. They’re not under oath.

      • Hogey's Role

        November 3, 2013 at 8:24 pm

        They are role models!! They’re role models to our children and when they see a rod or Braun using steroids they think it’s ok to use it too and that’s the problem, this is nothing like hooking in hockey it’s like using steroids or other drugs to get ahead of everyone else and that’s sad and wrong!!! It’s not ok, I’m not ok with cheating or lying about it and not only did he cheat twice and lie about it but only serves 65 games instead of what should have been 150 games total and that’s bullshit!! They all should be banned from the game that’s the only way to clean it up

      • EricL

        November 3, 2013 at 10:16 pm

        If sports figures are your role models your parents are doing a shitty job. And poor parenting is a much bigger problem than some dudes taking some pills.

        Role models should be people like Bill Gates, Neil Degrasse Tyson, and Norman Borlaug. Role models should be scientists and entrepreneurs and philanthropists, not a bunch of dudes who hit a ball with a stick.

        Braun served the suspension baseball gave him under their legal procedures. I’m not sure what more you want of him. Is it his fault that MLB doesn’t suspend people for life for a 2nd offense? Do you think he should blacklist himself and never play again? That’s silly. The whole point of an agreed upon punishment for breaking a rule is that once you serve your punishment your penance has been completed. You seem like the kind of guy who would have chased Hester Prynne around the town trying to sew on that red A.

      • Hogey's Role

        November 4, 2013 at 8:55 am

        No I’m the guy that points to people like you and tells kids you don’t wanna turn out like this guy do you??
        Sad but true

      • EricL

        November 4, 2013 at 10:29 am

        haha, not to toot my own horn or anything, but you’d be thrilled if your kids turned out as awesome as me.

      • hk

        November 4, 2013 at 10:41 am

        Hogey,

        In your mind, how do you differentiate Braun, who you don’t want, from the likes of Chris Perez, who you would sign even though he was arrested for marijuana possession? I’m just wondering where you draw the line? Is it the lying? That Braun apparently cheated twice, but we only know that Perez only broke the law once? Would you be okay if the Phils re-sign Chooch?

    • wbramh

      November 2, 2013 at 6:45 pm

      “we already got one of Boston’s outcasts on an overpay, do we really want a second?”

      Hah! Sort of the Curse of the Bambino in reverse.

      But I wouldn’t let the Papelbon fiasco taint our interest in current and future Red Sox FAs for too many decades to come.
      While Ellsbury isn’t the Bambino (who is?) landing his services coupled with a later trade (involving Revere) for a RH hitting RF could turn a sorry outfield into one of the top five.

      However, like you I would pass on Cruz unless the price is too good to turn down. He would be a good fit but not worth winning in an insane bidding war with the Mets or some other team (and coupled with the loss of that draft pick).

      • George

        November 2, 2013 at 9:06 pm

        I think if the Phils want any of the decent free agent outfielders, they’ll be in bidding wars with some team or other. There seems to be a lack of good available outfielders these days despite years of hearing how easy it is to find a power bat out there.

        The real question should be: Do you overpay for an all bat, barely adequate defensive guy, give way too many years to the speedy Ellsbury (who hits from the wrong side considering your mostly lefty lineup), or cough up what’s left of your prospects, like Franco, Biddle, and maybe two more in a trade for a right handed player who both hits for power and can field and throw the ball?

      • wbramh

        November 4, 2013 at 12:47 am

        I agree, George. Any caliber FA is going to trigger a bidding war but management needs to pick the right guy to bid on and not bid as much or more on a lesser player out of desperation should they be outbid on their first choice. As someone who has spent a lot of time at auction houses, I know it sometimes better to leave with empty hands than empty pockets. Better to bank the money and use just that fraction you were contemplating overspending by to hire some top-flight scouts.

    • michael d

      November 2, 2013 at 11:10 pm

      It is “DEFINITELY”. When would anyone have taught you to spell it with an “a”?!!!

      • Hogey's Role

        November 2, 2013 at 11:51 pm

        Who gives a shit

      • George

        November 3, 2013 at 10:51 am

        When would anyone teach you to be an perfectionist a–hole who’s never made a mistake, michael d?

      • Hogey's Role

        November 3, 2013 at 10:54 am

        Nice George haha

      • Rune Duren

        November 3, 2013 at 11:12 am

        Mr. Mike… If you’re so worried about someone not spelling something correctly…then go teach English and grammar! And if you already do, then it’s you’re fault for not teaching proper English in the first place. My advise? Get over it! and stay on subject.

      • EricL

        November 3, 2013 at 11:27 am

        … *your* fault …

      • EricL

        November 3, 2013 at 11:28 am

        also, it’s *advice*

        ;-D

      • wbramh

        November 4, 2013 at 12:33 am

        Never combine a question mark with an exclamation mark…nor three of them.

  2. phil stein

    November 2, 2013 at 5:11 pm

    We can’t a pick because we finished below 20th overall. It doesn’t matter if we sign a “protected” free agent. Washington was in same position when they signed Werth from us.

    • schmenkman

      November 2, 2013 at 5:22 pm

      To rephrase: Because they finished in the bottom 10 in MLB, if they sing a free agent who was given a Qualifying Offer, instead of losing their 1st round pick as they normally would, they will lose their 2nd round pick instead.

      • Hogey's Role

        November 2, 2013 at 5:54 pm

        That’s what I said he’s not worth losing a number two pick in my opinion

      • schmenkman

        November 2, 2013 at 6:35 pm

        Ok – I was just clarifying phil’s comment.

      • Hogey's Role

        November 2, 2013 at 7:05 pm

        Lol I was replying to him as well

      • michael d

        November 2, 2013 at 11:12 pm

        best post of the day, schmenkman! embarrassing when morons post, and one can’t even understand what they said without translation!

  3. Jerome

    November 2, 2013 at 9:04 pm

    Before the QO, I was all about signing Nelson Cruz, figuring you could get him at a good price. Maybe Shin-Soo Choo? I think adding him, a risky SP like Dan Haren or Chris Capuano and a RP or two coming off a down-year ERA-wise (but with good peripherals) would make this team pretty interesting next year.

    • EricL

      November 2, 2013 at 9:51 pm

      I think the Phillies should stay away from risky SP, only because they’ve already got 2 risky SP in Kendrick and Miguel A Gonzalez. Nobody knows what you’re going to get out of either of those guys, so rolling the dice on a third pitcher seems foolish. I think they should go after the most reliable arm with upside that they can find, which for me would be Masahiro Tanaka or Ubaldo Jimenez.

      • Rune Duren

        November 3, 2013 at 11:16 am

        You are absolutely right Eric! I myself would seriously go after Garza. He is a very solid pitcher and not that old and in his prime and healthy as far as I know.

  4. bacardipr

    November 3, 2013 at 1:19 am

    So it sounds like a no go for Doc EricL? Petti also in my opinion fits your we dont know what we are getting. Assuming he is back as the fifth starter. Im liking the Ellsbury kid though. Still torn though we could use another RH bat in there. While i have no idea what Rube is planning. I have to guess if their blow their wad on Ellsbury they probably wont have much wiggle room for much else except maybe a cheaper bullpen arm.

    • schmenkman

      November 3, 2013 at 1:35 am

      According to the link below, after paying for a catcher and for arbitration raises for Kendrick, Bastardo, and Revere, they will be at about $152 million, or $37 M below the luxury tax threshold. That should be enough for more than just an Ellsbury.

      http://www.thegoodphight.com/2013/10/22/4865948/phillies-aav-scorecard-for-2014-continuously-updated#comments

      • Lefty

        November 3, 2013 at 8:51 am

        Schmenkman,
        I’m of the opinion that if they go out and spend for an outfielder, particularly an Ellsbury/Choo type, that Revere will not be part of the equation. I think they will trade him for relief pitching.

        So- not to split hairs but every dollar counts. I think you can take an additional 1.2m off giving them 38M of room below the LT prior to any new spending, if I’m right about Ben.

    • EricL

      November 3, 2013 at 10:22 am

      I’m only okay with Doc as the 5th starter as an insurance policy (on the base salary of a 5th starter/insurance policy), and if it bumps Kendrick/MAG back to long relief/the 6th starter.

      The problem with the Phillies bringing Doc back is that if he’s not close to the old Doc then he’s not a very good pitcher, but the Phillies have such a history with him that they’re likely to overlook that and give him the ball every 5th day regardless. That can’t happen if he’s still bad.

      But the problem is that MAG is a complete unknown, and I see all sorts of red flags around a guy who initially agreed to a huge contract and then had it cut by nearly 2/3rds after medical testing was done, and still no other team wanted to beat that bid. Kendrick is also an unknown: will he be the good KK from the 2nd half of 2012 and the first half of 2013, or will he be the poor pitcher from most of the other times.

      So they’re left with only two spots in the rotation that are known commodities, with the rest being a complete crapshoot. Doc, at this point in his career, wouldn’t fix that, only make it worse.

      • EricL

        November 3, 2013 at 10:27 am

        My mistake, I actually understated the amount by which the MAG offer was decreased after his physicals.

        The Phils initial winning bid for MAG was $48 million dollars over six years, and he ended up signing for $12 million over 3, a total money decrease of 75%, and annual decrease of 50% ($8mm/yr for 6 yrs vs. $4 million/yr for 3, which is…wow)

      • Lefty

        November 3, 2013 at 10:29 am

        And I think Halladay would make a pretty good long man/ spot starter. He seems to run out of gas so quickly nowadays that maybe a 2-3 inning man might be best for him -as you said under a reasonable salary. The problem is that I doubt Doc thinks he’s ready for that. I’m pretty sure that given a chance to start somewhere else, he’d take that opportunity.

      • EricL

        November 3, 2013 at 10:43 am

        Exactly. He has too much pride and demands too much of himself to just say, “Okay, I’m a long man/5th starter now.” To me (and there’s been debate over this between guys like me and Joecatz), he’s got that Steve Carlton mentality where he just knows he can fix whatever’s wrong with him, even though that just might not be true.

      • George

        November 3, 2013 at 11:03 am

        Lefty, I hope you realize that if Revere is not part of the equation, they’ll have to add two outfielders.

        In my opinion, if Revere goes anywhere, it will be to left field, with Brown moving to right. Of course if Choo is their man, then he’ll likely play a corner, with Revere still in center. (Choo’s center field metrics aren’t all that good.)

      • Lefty

        November 3, 2013 at 12:49 pm

        George, I’m just speculating obviously, but I just think it goes totally against the M.O. of this front office to have 2 “great speed, high OBP” guys in one outfield. I think they’ll go for a power bat if they are keeping Revere, or trade him if they go for an Ellsbury/Choo type so that they can then pursue a power bat. I’m just basing on track record, but who really knows, maybe they’ll change their ideology.

      • George

        November 3, 2013 at 2:23 pm

        Lefty, what you say about the Phils not wanting two speed/OBP guys in the outfield does have merit.

        The problem I have with this thinking, though, is that by trading Revere, they’ll absolutely have to add another good outfielder, and not just an all hit-no field type (they already have that in Brown). That could be expensive, and could severely limit what they can do with catcher, bullpen, and rotation depth.

        It’s possible, I suppose, but it’s probably just as possible they keep Revere and hope that the power from people like Howard, Utley, Ashe, Brown, and whoever they sign as a catcher proves to be adequate.

  5. bacardipr

    November 3, 2013 at 4:08 am

    Cool beans shmenk. Though it seems at least past two years they are willing to go that high. With dropping attendance and viewership and Rubes head on the line they may forego any self imposed budget for a year or two.

  6. bacardipr

    November 3, 2013 at 4:10 am

    not willing to go that high.

  7. Lefty

    November 3, 2013 at 8:58 am

    @joecatz- if you should happen to check in,

    “You know, for all the crap about Howard’s deal, the fact that 18mm is going to Papelbon and Adams is the real crime.”

    ^This

  8. George

    November 3, 2013 at 7:34 pm

    The real crime actually may have been giving $21 million to Adam Eaton.

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