Analysis

Is an Upgrade Over Mayberry Even Available?

There has been much discussion about the Phillies reluctance to let John Mayberry Jr. walk. In my offseason plan posted last month on PhilliesNation.com, it included letting Mayberry go and signing Chris Young to a two-year, $10 million deal. The Phillies instead held onto JMJ and inked Marlon Byrd to a two-year, $16 million deal.

Now, there have been rumblings from the organization that they’re looking to upgrade the outfield and the bench. That means they’ll have to find someone who can play decent defense at all three outfield spots and provide a bit of pop. Who’s left that could possibly provide that?

If we’re going into the deep end first, Grady Sizemore is an interesting name. He hasn’t played in the majors since 2011 due to bad wheels. However, if there was ever a buy-low candidate, he would be it. Sizemore hit 20 or more home runs in four straight seasons, but the legs are definitely an issue. But if he’s asked to play sparingly, can they hold up?

Franklin Gutierrez is another interesting name. He doesn’t hit for as much power as Mayberry, and he’s certainly erratic as the plate, evident in his .306 OBP. Defensively, he was at one time an elite fielder, but the last two season has a negative dWAR.

Tyler Colvin was, at one time, a fine young power hitting prospect. Those days are gone as he flamed out in Colorado last year. He is a former first round pick, but is a terrible outfielder, with center field likely his worst position.

Cesar Hernandez is an in-house name, and defensively he might be able to deal with center field. But he’s not going to give much in the way of power. After those names, which aren’t eye-popping to begin with, the crop is ravaged.

As you can see, the Phillies may have to stick with Mayberry once again and hope that he can supply some sort of consistency from the pine.

21 Comments

21 Comments

  1. hk

    December 11, 2013 at 5:11 pm

    As I’ve posted on other threads, if Mayberry is used properly (starting every game vs. LHP’s instead of either Howard, Revere or Brown and never starting vs. RHP’s), he’ll earn whatever he gets in arbitration or whatever salary they settle upon. If he’s used like he was last year, he will again be unlikely to produce more than replacement level.

    • wbramh

      December 11, 2013 at 8:55 pm

      HK, I agree nearly 100% (the exception being Revere who has even better numbers against lefties than any of the Phils’ players below) yet some fans, pundits and even management types have yet to figure out that Mayberry is the most misused player on the team.

      Howard vs Lefties .218 .321 .539
      Ruf vs Lefties .309 .348 .657
      Brown vs Lefties .296 .429 .725
      Mayberry vs Lefties .296 .460 .756

      So enough with the Mayberry bashing already unless the team is willing to sign Nelson Cruz
      or better. And Cruz is no gem in the outfield, either.

      Cruz vs.Lefties 359 .462 .821

      • hk

        December 12, 2013 at 8:47 am

        Cruz also benefited from playing in a home park that is much more friendly to RH-hitters and is going to get ~$15M per year.

  2. Car Wash Lenny

    December 11, 2013 at 5:49 pm

    Bidddle and Franco for Kemp?

    • Larry Harlow

      December 11, 2013 at 6:37 pm

      It would take more than Biddle & Franco to get Kemp, and in their current configuration the Phillies can’t afford another $20 million a year player.

      • Lucas

        December 11, 2013 at 6:39 pm

        I wouldn’t trade Biddle and Franco for Matt Kemp. HELL NAH!

    • Hogey's Role

      December 11, 2013 at 9:28 pm

      No way!!!

  3. Bart Shart

    December 11, 2013 at 6:27 pm

    Kemp is very injury prone and very expensive.

  4. Lucas

    December 11, 2013 at 6:37 pm

    Rajai Davis but he signed with the Tigers. SMH!

    • schmenkman

      December 11, 2013 at 9:03 pm

      Rajai Davis: 33 years old, hits about as well as Mayberry (a little more on base, a little less power), and his defense rates as bad or worse. Any upgrade comes from his speed, which is substantial. The only caveat there is that speed will decline (article: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-stolen-base-aging-curve-depicted/), but the Phils may have been able to get a decent year or two out of him, a la Juan Pierre.

      Anyway, as you say he signed for 2 years and $10 mil.

  5. Jay

    December 11, 2013 at 8:06 pm

    ….and colon is a Met- wtf is Amaro doing? I mean it just looks like everyone else in the division is getting better and the Phils are going for the “well if everything works out- nobody gets injured and has breakout years we will be contenders” concept that worked out SO well before…ugh just so frustrating

    • schmenkman

      December 11, 2013 at 9:07 pm

      Aah, so Jay you must be one of the few fans who value being good over being young, since ’14 will be Colon’s age 41 season.

      • Jay

        December 11, 2013 at 9:21 pm

        No not at all…I don’t want him to be here lol…it’s just all this talk I have been hearing from Amaro which is simply the same bull I’ve been hearing from last off season- I hope it works too- having an older staff- I just don’t trust it like I blindly did last year- the status quo needs to either win or change

      • Jay

        December 11, 2013 at 9:22 pm

        And there was more losing last year than winning

      • wbramh

        December 11, 2013 at 10:34 pm

        Let’s suspend disbelief and say the Phillies are in the running for Tanaka and Choo, teo players who I believe would have an enormous impact on this team.
        If they paid $150 m over 7 years for Choo what would they have left (or have to do) in order to have a good shot at Tanaka, too?

        The Yankees , who already have the highest payroll in baseball, appear to be a bottomless pit having spent $300 m already and apparently still a front-runner for Tanaka. Can somebody explain how that’s possible and why the Phillies (who are about to sign an enormous broadcast contract) allegedly have their hands tied?

    • George

      December 12, 2013 at 6:27 am

      The Yankees have always been in a different world financially than any other team in baseball, with the possible exception of the current Dodgers. You can’t fairly use them in a comparison with what any other team spends.

  6. sewcreawl

    December 11, 2013 at 9:16 pm

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  7. wbramh

    December 11, 2013 at 10:09 pm

    Just watched an interview with Mozeliak after watching Rube the night before.
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  8. Rick

    December 12, 2013 at 7:40 am

    Phillies should!!!!!!……. Trade brown for Bautista , why? If and wen healthy he’s a 50 h hitter in our park and he’s the right handed bat u need he can play 3rd now … Then sign nelson cruz and Matt garza .. Bang solid lineup allasudden … Bulls**t phillies have no money they have a 200 million dollar tv
    Contract kicking in . Trade Kendrick’s 7
    Mil for peanuts if u have to

    • Rick

      December 12, 2013 at 7:43 am

      and actually i jus read the tv deal could be as high as a billion !!!!!!

    • Hogey's Role

      December 12, 2013 at 9:41 am

      Ummm no thanks

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