All-Star Break

Posted by Brian Michael, Fri, July 06, 2007 10:53 AM

Heading into the weekend series in Colorado, the Phillies are battling to stay above .500.  After an ugly April and a hot May, the Phils spent most of June treading water.  With this mediocrity in mind, I wondered how the Phillies record at the midway point correlated to their final results.  In recent history of course no All-Star break record of any sort has produced a playoff team so we should eliminate that from any preliminary prognostications.  Here are the records heading into the break and at the end of the season:

Year All-Star Break End of Season
2002 39-47 80-81
2003 52-40 86-76
2004 46-41 86-76
2005 45-44 88-74
2006 40-47 85-77
2007 43-42
(3 games remaining)
??-??

Jumping off the chart is the 2003 season, when the team took it on the chin from the Marlins in the final weeks.  But looking closely, that is the only season out of the six in which the Phillies did not have a better second half.  Baseball Prospectus has calculated that if the rest of the season were played a million times, the Phils would make the playoffs in 10% of the seasons.  There are plenty of games throughout a 162 game schedule that could help beat those odds.  A series win against the Rockies might be the difference between an 88 win season and a 90 win season.

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2008 salaries:

Charlie Manuel - $1.5 million
Pat Burrell - $14 million
Ryan Howard - $10 million
Brett Myers - $8.5 million
Adam Eaton - $7,635,000
Chase Utley - $7.5 million
Jimmy Rollins - $7 million
Brad Lidge - $6.35 million
Tom Gordon - $5.5 million
Geoff Jenkins - $5 million
Scott Eyre - $3.8 million
Joe Blanton - $3.7 million
Jamie Moyer - $3.5 million
Pedro Feliz - $3 million
J.C. Romero - $3 million
Jayson Werth - $1.7 million
Ryan Madson - $1.4 million
So Taguchi - $1.05 million
Chad Durbin - $900,000
Eric Bruntlett - $600,000
Cole Hamels - $500,000
Shane Victorino - $480,000
Chris Snelling - $450,000
Kyle Kendrick - $445,000
Greg Dobbs - $440,000
Carlos Ruiz - $425,000
Clay Condrey - $420,000
Chris Coste - $415,000
Rudy Seanez - $400,00
Francisco Rosario - $395,000
Mike Zagurski - $392,500
Kyle Kendrick - $385,000
Fabio Castro - $383,000
J.D. Durbin - $380,000
Anderson Garcia - $380,000
Scott Mathieson - $380,000
J.A. Happ - $380,000
Yoel Hernandez - $380,000
Scott Mathieson - $380,000
Chris Roberson - $380,000
Brian Sanches - $380,000
Zach Segovia - $380,000
Matt Smith - $380,000
Joe Thurston - $380,000
Kris Benson - $75,000



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