Phillies Nation

Lowered Expectations

Posted by Brian Michael, Mon, August 06, 2007 05:21 PM

Monday off days are great opportunities for taking stock of the season, looking ahead on the schedule and managing expectations.   That said, the Phils have 51 games remaining in the 2007 baseball season - 51 games to get back to the playoffs for the first time in 14 years.  So what are the chances the Phillies will make this playoffs this year?  Some say 25%; but as Phillies fans, we all know we can’t rely on the percentages.

There are 29 games remaining at home and 22 on the road.  Fortunately, this season the Phillies have finally begun to improve their record in Philadelphia (29-23 thus far).  To make it to 90 wins, they’d have to go 32-19.  In other words, the Phillies would have to win at least two games in each of their remaining 16 series.  A much more likely feat would be to reach Charlie Manuel’s magic number of 85 wins and go 27-24 the rest of the season.  However, much of deciding how many games the Phillies can win revloves around the matchups they face.  We know how the Phils stack up any given day so let’s look at their opponents.

Nine games remain against the NL West teams, save the one with Barry Bonds.  Then there is a three game series with the defending World Champion St. Louis Cardinals.  There are also 3 games against the Pirates at PNC Park in Pittsburgh which will involve a tailgate party with our friends from Philly Tailgate.  As always, the bulk of the schedule remains against the NL East with 35 games yet to play in the division.  Also as usual, the Phillies will wrap up September with some games against the Nationals.  Besides a DC tailgate party on September 22, we will have a group together for the games next week at RFK.  If any one from Washington, DC or the surrounding area is interested in going to the games August 14-17, let us know.  Although I’m not too worried about the 10 games left against the Nationals, the Phillies 18-19 record against the division does not bode well for reaching 90 wins.

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