Phillies Nation

Phillies Have Puny Presence On Prospect Lists

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Thu, January 31, 2008 02:38 PM

Keith Law has released his Top-100 Prospects list for 2008.

The Phillies have one representative: pitcher Carlos Carrasco, at No. 53.

Here’s what Law had to say:

“The Phillies’ system is not strong, and Carrasco is the one legitimate above-average prospect in it at the moment. Carrasco’s best attribute is his easy velocity, mostly 90-94 and touching 95 at times, with fringe-average command. His secondary stuff is a work in progress, with his short downer curveball ahead of his changeup, on which he slows his arm too much. Because his arm works well, it’s possible to project him as someone who’ll have three average pitches down the road, and he might pick up a few more miles an hour as he fills out or if he lengthens his stride a bit, all of which would make him a solid No. 3 starter in the majors.”

It’s pretty accurate, and while I’m not the best source on Phillies prospects (this is the best source), Law seems to know what he’s writing. Carrasco should figure to be a No. 3, and it’s way too early to tell if pitchers Joe Savery, Kyle Drabek and Andrew Carpenter have the stuff to make a top-100 list.

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus also wrote out his top-100 list . He has Carrasco at No. 68 and Joe Savery squeaks in at No. 96.

Truth is, top-100 lists can be misleading. You never know where quality will come from. But it’s a good indication of the state of the Phillies farm system — it’s not good, but there’s enough in the middle of the pack that could surprise very soon.

Of all our prospects, I can see Carrasco in the Majors by next season, maybe as the No. 3 starter behind Hamels and Myers. Savery may be projected for late-2009 or 2010, while Drabek and Carpenter seem to be looking more at 2010. Infield prospect Adrian Cardenas could be with the club by next year.

And oddly enough, Law wrote out his top-five prospects for each team. Here’s his Phillies list:

1. Carlos Carrasco, rhp
2. Joe Savery, lhp
3. Kyle Drabek, rhp
4. Josh Outman, lhp
5. Travis d’Arnaud, c

Cardenas is not listed here, and maybe it’s a bit high for Drabek?

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Phun Week: Your First Phillies Game

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Thu, January 31, 2008 09:33 AM

With yesterday’s signing of Pedro Feliz, I delayed the start of Phun Week.

Then, the Mets decided to trade for Johan Santana. We’ll have more on the developments of the deal as it happens.

So I delayed the start of Phun Week again.

What is Phun Week?

Basically, I will share with you some of my “fun” memories as a Phillies fan, and present topics that are on the light-hearted side, just to keep those winter blues from slipping in.

So the first of these five Phun Week posts is about your first Phillies game.

I remember the game only because I was told about later on, and researched the exact date through Baseball Reference.

June 22, 1985, Phillies vs. Pirates.

Charles Hudson was on the mound for the Phils (he carried a 3.78 ERA with a 8-13 record in ‘85), and gave up two runs in the first inning (including a Johnny Ray home run). Larry McWilliams threw for the Bucs, and was pretty good until a Mike Schmidt double in the fourth. He would score on a Bo Diaz GIDP. (Wow, these teams were bad.)

But Diaz would come back in the eighth, singling home slugger Glenn Wilson to make it 2-2. In the ninth, Don Robinson came into the game and hit Luis Aguayo. John Candelaria replaced Robinson and gave up a single to Tim Corcoran. (Who are these guys?) Then, up stepped Juan Samuel.

Long drive, watch that baby, outta here!

Phils win 5-2 on a Samuel walkoff.

Phils lineup for that game:
Juan Samuel – 2B
Rick Schu – 3B
Mike Schmidt – 1B
Glenn Wilson – RF
Bo Diaz – C
Garry Maddox – CF
John Russell – LF
Steve Jeltz – SS
Charles Hudson – P

Sitting out for this contest, the highly regarded Mr. 5-for-1, Von Hayes.

I was a bit younger than 1 years old at the time, and the first real Phillies game I’ll remember won’ t be until 1989 (seeing the Mike Schmidt “We Love You” sign in centerfield. But for first games, this wasn’t a bad one.

What’s your first Phillies game?

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Follow-Up: Santana Kicks Rivalry Into High Gear

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Wed, January 30, 2008 11:50 AM

For those who haven’t seen it, the Mets exploded the offseason to bits with their trade for Johan Santana.

Here’s what people are saying about the deal:

ESPN’s Keith Law says the Mets are arguably the best team in the National League now. He adds the Twins got a raw deal, not being able to grab Mets’ top prospect Fernando Martinez or young pitcher Mike Pelfrey. I wholeheartedly agree.

Jim Callis of Baseball America also says the Twins got a low hand. The four prospects are all Major League probables, but risks are plenty. Personally, the Twins should’ve taken the Yankees proposal of Phillip Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Co., if that was on the table.

Shane Victorino said the Phillies shouldn’t be considered second rate after the deal. “It’s one significant move, but we made four moves to make our team better. We added in a third baseman, a right fielder, moved me to center, got Brad Lidge. We made our team better. They acquired a great pitcher, but we’re a lot better team, too.” Whoa, Shane, you also lost Aaron Rowand and still need some pitching. But I agree for the most part.

Jim Salisbury of the Inquirer says the Phillies will absolutely feel the effects of the deal.

Ken Davidoff of Newsday spoke to David Wright, who is loving the current Mets rotation. “Not only what he brings on the field, but for our younger pitchers to develop under a guy like Johan, a guy like Pedro, you can’t ask for a better situation,” he said. How true.

Casino Gaming Web (yes, them) are chiming in, saying the Mets should be among the top favorites for the World Series for 2008’s odds. The Phillies? They don’t say, but I’d guess top-8.

The Seattle Post-Intelligencer thinks the Santana trade will bring the Mariners closer to dealing for Orioles pitcher Erik Bedard. Hey, Gillick, Carrasco, Madson, Outman and Marson for Bedard?

And Larry Brown Sports says “hold the phone, kids,” because he isn’t handing the Mets the 2008 World Series trophy yet.

Yup, this is why they play the games.

Of course, as I commented in the game thread, there is a huge positive out of all this: The Phillies and Mets rivalry has just been amped up a ton.

Just the volume of our comments section in the past 24 hours (and other Phillies blogs) show that the Mets fans are celebrating in our faces because, well, we are the team to beat. Still are. We won the division last year. Now the target is on our backs.

It seems the Santana deal is working much like the Yankees deal for Alex Rodriguez in 2004. Maybe the Phillies answer at some point with a big deal; maybe they wait until mid-season to pull off a deal involving a Nomar-type player (like Burrell?). Whatever the case, the rivalry is growing evermore.

No longer can we say the Mets and Braves are top rivals in the East. In 2008, it’s all about the Mets and Phillies. Sure the Braves will be in the mix, but we’ve all been hoping for this rivalry to come — the fandom, the slurs, the berating. It’s more fun with these two teams. Way more fun.

A few of the more tolerable Met fans in the comments said that the 2008 race for the NL East title will be tremendous. One said “first one to 100 wins … wins.” I pretty much agree — the race is more heated than ever, and it’s up to the Phillies to answer, both on the field, and in the front office.

Get ready, fans, we’re in for a hell of a ride.

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Mets Trade For Santana

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Tue, January 29, 2008 04:56 PM

Well, crap.

USA Today is reporting a four-for-one swap, as the Mets will send Phillip Humber, Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey and Deoils Guerra to the Mets for the All-World left-hander.

More on this to come, but a few knee-jerk quick thoughts:

1. The Mets stole this one. They didn’t have to give up their No. 1 prospect.
2. The Mets are suddenly the favorite to win both the East and the NL.
3. We’re in trouble.

UPDATE (9:00 p.m.): The deal isn’t quite official yet, as the Mets have a little less than two days to reach a long-term (six or seven years) agreement with Santana. Considering the work the Mets have put into the deal, I’d have to think the agreement will be finalized and Santana will don No. 57 for the New York orange and blue.

Here are Santana’s numbers, in case you’ve been under limestone:

2007: 219 IP / 15-13 / 3.33 ERA / 235 K / 52 BB
2006: 233.7 IP / 19-6 / 2.77 ERA / 245 K / 47 BB / Cy Young
2005: 231.7 IP / 16-7 / 2.87 ERA / 238 K / 45 BB
2004: 228 IP / 20-6 / 2.61 ERA / 265 K / 54 BB / Cy Young
Career: 1308.7 IP / 93-44 / 3.22 ERA / 1381 K / 364 BB

Santana’s a few solid years away from a Hall of Fame enshrinement. His entire career in the Majors has been spent in Minnesota, where he’s been the most dominant pitcher of the last five years.

What Phillies fans need to know off the bat:

1. Johan Santana has pitched in the American League. Now he comes over here. Crap.
His career numbers against the NL: 182.7 IP / 16-4 / 2.27 ERA / 191 K / 46 BB
Of course, he’ll be facing many young and poor offenses, and often (Washington, Florida, Pittsburgh, Houston, Saint Louis). Other teams are filled with players who haven’t seen him much (Phillies, Atlanta, San Diego, Los Angeles, Chicago, Milwaukee). Simply put, at least in 2008, Santana could demolish the National League for 25 wins.

2. Santana is a lefty. He punishes lefties.
His career numbers against lefties: 1192 PA / .223 AVG / .283 OBP / .371 SLG / 289 K / 84 BB
Before anyone makes the joke that the line resembles Pedro Feliz’ career line, I have to admit, righties actually hit worse against him. Seriously. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Geoff Jenkins will struggle, no doubt. And, well, Feliz, Pat Burrell and Carlos Ruiz will likely struggle too. Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino will just have to guess which side will be best.

3. Santana is durable.
Since 2005, Santana has only once pitched less than five innings in an outing, and that was his last start in 2007, when the Twins were way out of the playoff race. He’ll go six and seven without any problems, and at the very least, he’ll keep his team well in the game as the late innings approach. If the Mets offense gets the clutch monkey off their back, it could be smooth sailing for Santana.

4. There is a chance.
Santana’s not a fly ball pitcher or ground ball pitcher; in fact, he tends to give up more flies than grounders for his career. At least in Citizens Bank Park, there’s a chance of jumping on him with the longball. Of course, that’s if the Phils can lay off him. What Santana is … is a strikeout pitcher. And the Phillies have a slew of free swingers.

This has the possibility of ending up like the A-Rod deal for the Yankees. Just speculation, really. There’s been precedent with adding the best player in his league, then coming up short for years on end afterward. Is it a chemistry thing? Is it a karma thing? Is it a performance thing? I don’t know. Chances are Santana will gel right into that clubhouse and he and Pedro Martinez will make an unstoppable, 35-win duo in 2008. But then again, there is a chance that could all come to naught.

How do I feel about the deal, really?

Johan Santana will make the Mets better. As long as he’s healthy — absolutely. He could improve the team by 10 wins. If this Mets rotation stays healthy, or finds the pieces along the way (if injury were to strike other pitchers), they should win the East. As strong as the Phillies offense is, I can’t see the pitching overcoming what now looks to be a very even Mets club.

Now, if the Phillies can turn around and respond to this deal with pitching (Erik Bedard seems unlikely, but there’s something out there, right?), I could definitely say the Mets and Phillies are dead even. But at this moment, if Santana were to sign after a long-term deal is finalized, the Mets are the team to beat in the National League East.

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Follow-Up: Feliz Isn’t The Necessity

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Tue, January 29, 2008 12:11 PM

Yesterday’s signing of Pedro Feliz showed that Phillies fans are divided, with many of the same points surfacing:

Good deal:

• Feliz will give you more power than Greg Dobbs and Wes Helms.
• Dobbs is a much better pinch hitter than third baseman.
• Feliz’s glove will help the pitching possibly as much as adding a back-end guy.

Bad deal:

• Feliz has a terrible on-base percentage and hacks at everything.
• Helms should turn around at least part of his bad play in 2007.
• Funds should’ve been allocated toward pitching.

Details of the deal have him at $8.5M over two years, with a third-year option that could make him $15M over the three seasons as a Phillie.

My main argument against the deal is it hamstrings the Phillies from making any type of pitching deal. What little money they seemingly had remaining without including Ryan Howard and Eric Bruntlett has now gone toward a position where we could’ve done without what many are calling “a slight upgrade.”

Could the Phils have survived with a 3B platoon of Helms and Dobbs? Yes. This year’s offense will closely mirror last year’s, and even if it falls off, it won’t be anywhere near the NL cellar.

The Phillies weakness is pitching; currently there’s a 45-year-old, a 23-year-old primed for a sophomore slump and a guy who toted a 6.00+ ERA last season in the rotation. The bullpen includes an aging and shaky Tom Gordon, a wildly inconsistent JC Romero and a “who knows what you’re getting” Ryan Madson as soldiers in front of Brad Lidge, who has performed well lately, but in small sample sizes.

I’m nowhere close to confident in our pitching staff. Hopefully they’ll prove me wrong, but finding some experienced arms (David Riske, Jeremy Affeldt) would’ve been strong medicine. Instead, the NL’s No. 1 offense received “a slight upgrade,” while a cellar-grazing staff is hoping for gold from Chad Durbin. One can only hope there’s something in that pot.

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Phillies Sign Pedro Feliz

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Mon, January 28, 2008 05:13 PM

The Phillies have signed 3B Pedro Feliz.

ESPN.com is reporting a two-year deal for $8.5M (with a third-year option), pending physical.

Feliz, 32, hit .253 with 20 HR and 72 RBI in 2007 for the Giants. For his career, he is a .252 hitter with marginal power (20 HR per year) but slick defense. Last year he rated as one of the Major League’s top third basemen.

I will only like this deal — and not much — if Wes Helms is dealt for relief or starting pitching. He won’t get much, though. I honestly think the Phils could’ve spent this money better ways, but supposedly the dearth of relief pitching made it possible to grab Feliz. As it stands, this signing may hamper the team somewhere (whether it’s getting more pitching or bolstering a re-signging of Howard).

But in all honesty, the Phils offense could’ve gone another year with a 3B platoon. This pitching staff can’t go another year with shoddy relief and starting pitching. I feel as if this is more a name signing than anything, which, well, is the norm in Phillies land.

UPDATE (2:03 p.m. Thursday): The deal has been finalized . It’s $8.5M over two years with a third-year option that would make it a $15M total deal. Well, at least the offense is all shored up.

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John Kruk On “Aqua Teen Hunger Force”

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Mon, January 28, 2008 01:30 PM

For those who missed it last night:

“You’re a potential Hall of Famer! .300 batting average. I can totally have sex next to you!”

John Kruk is not a good singer, evidently.

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2008 State Of The Nation Address

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Sun, January 27, 2008 11:45 PM

Good evening, fans, respected colleagues and officials. I would like to begin tonight by saying the state of the Phillies Nation is strong. Well, actually, strong to an extent, like a tire without its capacity in air. You know it’ll ride, and probably ride the whole way, but there’s always that feeling the tire will blow completely, stalling you on the road, wondering why you didn’t just fill that damn tire previously.

Of course, we must recognize the feats of our 2007 brand, a team that defied expectation (or did they?) and captured the hearts and minds of Philadelphia, and the United States of America. Standout players such as Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Cole Hamels, Aaron Rowand and National League Most Valuable Player Jimmy Rollins stood side-by-side with sturdy role players such as Jayson Werth, Greg Dobbs, Tadahito Iguchi, Kyle Lohse and JC Romero.

Together, the 2007 Phillies were able to dethrone the New York Mets in the National League East, and bring solidarity back to our wary division.

We must remember our 2007 Phillies, but we must also look ahead to 2008, a year that we believe could be a special year. Not just a year in which the team can win the division, but a year in which they can go all the way to the World Series and win the World Championship.

This offseason, the Phillies lost a few cogs of that 2007 team. Aaron Rowand has left for San Francisco. Abraham Nunez is now in Milwaukee. Tadahito Iguchi will man the fields for San Diego. Michael Bourn and Geoff Geary will be in Houston. Rod Barajas will play in Toronto, God Bless Him. But for what they lost, they stepped up and matched it with men such as Geoff Jenkins, So Taguchi, Eric Bruntlett, Chad Durbin and most of all, Brad Lidge.

So as we look into 2008, we must see that the Phillies look stronger than in 2007, and seem poised to defend their National League Eastern Division championship.

Thank you.

And now, the dissenters will give their rebuttal:

We must remember, however, that the Phillies received career seasons from Jimmy Rollins, Aaron Rowand, maybe even Pat Burrell, and JC Romero. They also got very lucky with Kyle Kendrick, who got out of enough jams to win 10 games for the team. And the luck continued with re-treads such as Dobbs, Werth, Iguchi and Lohse. To be blunt, the Phillies of 2008 were a lot like the Phillies of 1993: They caught fire at the right time.

Lest we forget, the Phillies took advantage of the greatest collapse in modern sports history. The Mets lost the division. They’re still the better team. They have a potent offense, a strong bench with veteran role players, a formidable rotation and bullpen, and guess what — they may have Johan Santana leading the whole wagon in 2008. How can the Phillies compete with that? You think a Wild Card would be in order? Wait until the Phillies tussle with Los Angeles, Colorado, Chicago and Atlanta. This team is destined for a downfall of epic proportions.

Heck, it’s not as if the offseason moves made the Phillies an instant contender for the World Series. Geoff Jenkins should change his middle name to Tappan with the amount of cold air he blows forth. Eric Bruntlett can’t hit. Brad Lidge is a gigantic question mark. And Chad Durbin? Vic Darensbourg? What is this — the 2010 panel for “Baseball Tonight?”

Do we really think we’re going to get another big year from that offense, along with improvements from a static pitching staff? Did they improve? They got Brad Lidge, but they gave up Geoff Geary (a serviceable sixth inning guy) and Kyle Lohse (a No. 4 starter). Tom Gordon is a year older. Jamie Moyer is almost 50. JC Romero isn’t completely consistent. Heck, what do we know about Kyle Kendrick? Can we really be positive about the pitching staff going into 2008?

We can laud the 2007 Phillies all we want, but the fact remains: If the 2008 Phillies want to win 100 games, the National League East — whatever — they’ll need a gigantic improvement from the mound while remaining a top-five offense. I can’t see that happening.

Thank you.

And now, the assenters will give their rebuttal:

Ah, but this is the National League! Last year not one team eclipsed 90 wins, so all is not lost. Does any National League team look like a runaway to lock up a division? Arizona’s offense is — ahem — snakebitten, the Dodgers’ youth could bite them far more than the Phillies, the Padres can’t hit worth a lick, the Cubs are a time bomb every time they take the field, the Brewers lack any real force outside of Ben Sheets, the Braves are starting Project Youth, and the Mets actually regressed from last year’s choking team.

To put this bluntly: When comparing the Phils to the NL, “favorite” is definitely an option.

Even if the Phillies offense regresses a bit (which it may), they’ll still remain one of the league’s best. And yes, the pitching has to get better. It can’t get worse. Adam Eaton — if he’s not healthy — will not infect the team 30 times like he did last season. We don’t have bad options such as Freddy Garcia and Jon Lieber. We know what we’re getting from Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, even Jamie Moyer. And the bullpen is much more improved from the start of last season. Now we have a full back end with Brad Lidge, Tom Gordon, Ryan Madson and JC Romero. Statistically, that’s one of the best in all of baseball!

Sure there are some unknowns — such as Durbin, the final bullpen spot and Eaton — but no team, absolutely no team is without unknowns. Look at the 2007 Red Sox. JD Drew was a disaster for them, but they found hope in Jacoby Ellsbury. Manny Ramirez had an off year, heck, Daisuke Matsuzaka wasn’t all he was cracked up to be. But they found positivity in spare parts, and they were the best team in baseball all season.

Baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Having the best team on January 27 doesn’t make you World Champions. Every team will change its roster between March 31 and September 1, and multiple times. The Phillies will find their spare parts, whether it’s through the arm of Carlos Carrasco, the bat or Jason Jaramillo or the glove of Brandon Watson. Give this team time. And right now, as we stand, the top-20 players on the 2008 Phillies surpass the top-20 players of possibly every National League team.

The state of the Phillies is strong. Give them time.

Thank you.

So, where do you fall?

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Odds And Ends: Jan. 27

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Sun, January 27, 2008 02:40 PM

Good Sunday, Phans at the Nation. I haven’t posted in a few days, but for good reason. Starting tonight, I’ll be posting everyday, doing some fun things, some serious things, basically, a little of everything.

Tonight I’m going to give a State of the Phillies, in honor of our State of the Union address tomorrow night. For now, here are some notes:

• Pedro Feliz allegedly turned down a two-year offer from the Giants.

It’s possible that the Phillies could find a way to sign him to an incentive-laden deal; already the Phils have been said to offer Feliz a deal. He would play third base regularly and open Wes Helms to the trading block.

• Abraham Nunez signed a Minor League contract with the Brewers, likely ensuring he won’t be on the 2008 Phillies roster.

I never disliked Nunez as much as some, since defensively, he’s one of the games best corner sackers. On a team with such a deep offensive arsenal, cheap defense becomes prime territory. Hopefully Eric Bruntlett will fill those shoes well.

• Mike Lieberthal has retired after 14 Major League seasons.

As far as Phillies catchers are concerned, Lieby is a top-five all-time guy, and supplied a nice drawer of memories during his tenure at backstop. He caught seven full seasons, posting two very good offensive campaigns:

In 1999, Lieby hit .300 with 31 HR and 96 RBI out of the six spot, gaining the first of two All Star trips. Though his power quickly evaporated, Lieby showed his hitting prowess in 2003 when he hit .313. In the future, it’s likely Lieby will more be remembered for being one of the foundations of the Ed Wade era, joining Bobby Abreu, David Bell, Jim Thome and possibly Pat Burrell as players who didn’t strike gold when we all expected it.

• Media Day No. 2 at the Vault included Brett Myers, who, according to John Smallwood, isn’t reluctant about moving back to the rotation.

“Really, it was whatever the team needed me to do; I was going to do it,” Myers said, though he claimed he wouldn’t mind starting and relieving at the same time. Interesting idea, but that would kill Myers career.

When the Phils signed Brad Lidge, the question of Myers’ role took centerstage, but was answered when the team popped him back in the rotation. At first, I thought a Myers/Lidge back-end would prove potent, as long as the Phils could grab a No. 2 or 3 starter to pair with Cole Hamels. That never happened, and so Myers, back in the rotation, will have to channel No. 2 stuff.

I wonder out loud: Is Myers better as a starter or reliever?

I won’t simply go by Myers’ relief stats last year, since it’s still a small sample size. Instead, I’ll look at career splits:

First PA against hitter: 1600 PA, .225 AVG, .301 OBP, 1.968 ADJ-RA
Second PA against hitter: 1263 PA, .269 AVG, .328 OBP, 3.56 ADJ-RA
Third PA+ against hitter: 1100 PA, .300 AVG, .363 OBP, 3.21 ADJ-RA

(ADJ-RA is adjusted runs allowed; I multiplied games by three and used that for at bats in the ERA formula (ER*9/AB), using runs instead of earned runs.)

So Myers is definitely better earlier in the game, but is he bad later in the game?

I took his highest comparison for his age, according to Baseball Reference, who is Livan Hernandez:

First PA against hitter: 3446 PA, .266 AVG, .328 OBP, 2.82 ADJ-RA
Second PA against hitter: 3069 PA, .274 AVG, .340 OBP, 2.89 ADJ-RA
Third PA+ against hitter: 3745 PA, .292 AVG, .351 OBP, 4.11 ADJ-RA

Livan is very consistent until about the fifth inning, then drops off badly, while Myers usually suffers a bad inning or stretch somewhere in the middle of the game before slightly recovering.

Myers’ current comparable is Aaron Harang:

First PA against hitter: 1547 PA, .243 AVG, .294 OBP, 2.20 ADJ-RA
Second PA against hitter: 1385 PA, .277 AVG, .329 OBP, 2.79 ADJ-RA
Third PA against hitter: 1288 PA, .280 AVG, .336 OBP, 3.45 ADJ-RA

Harang consistently gets worse with each new plate appearance, pretty normal for a starting pitcher. The fact that Myers’ stats jump up during the second appearance shows that if he’s not on his game, he’ll only get about five innings.

The proof: In 2006, Myers started 31 games, finishing with a maximum of 5.2 innings eight times. In 2005, he started 34 games, and again, eight times he finished before six. So 25 percent of the time, he’s going to struggle.

To compare, I looked at his relief appearances in 2007, and figured out how often he struggled (gave up one run or let three or more on base): 13/41 times, or, 31 percent of the time.

It’s pretty close, and if you take into account that one or two of those 13 struggles ended with a save or win, it factors closer to 25 percent. What does it all mean?

Brett Myers is still talented enough to be a regular No. 2 starter, but shows tendencies that make him more of a No. 3 starter. As a reliever, he’s serviceable, but isn’t as reliable as the top closers in the game. Bottom line: He’s good in either situation, but most likely better off as a starting pitcher.

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MLB.com Article

Posted by Brian Michael, Tue, January 22, 2008 09:00 PM

Cherished mementos part of the game
Every baseball fan has a favorite collectible keepsake
By Mark Newman / MLB.com

Brian Michael is a Phillies fan in Washington whose prized possessions include a few personalized Mike Schmidt-signed baseballs, a rare Steve Carlton ball signed “Lefty,” and one autographed by Willie Mays. But Michael’s keeper of all keepers is a Phillies Phanatic growth chart signed by the inimitable mascot itself.

“Fortunately, since the green guy is so tall,” he said, “I’ve been able to measure up against it for my entire life and thus still cherish it even in my late 20s.”

Ask any baseball fan to tell you about an all-time favorite collectible, and the answer will come to him or her faster than the emphatic nod of a bobblehead on your desk. It may have been a trinket from a first professional game you ever attended, it may have been a ticket stub from a game that meant everything, or it may have been any of a thousand reasons that made a certain collectible so valuable to you.

Continue reading at mlb.com…   (Thanks to We’ve Got Heart for the referral)

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2008 Promotions: Dollar Dogs, Disco, Dreidels

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Tue, January 22, 2008 11:45 AM

The Phillies have announced their giveaway and celebration days for 2008.

Dates to remember:

March 31 vs Washington – Opening day. Phillies will raise the NL East Champion banner and fans will get replicas. I just love saying that first part.

April 2 vs Washington – Opening night. Maroon old-school shirts with “Opening Night 2008″ emblazoned on the back. Methinks this will be the hot shirt for 2008. Also, yes, one of the best nights ever, a Dollar Dog Night.

Other Dollar Dog Nights:
April 15 (Tues.)
April 29 (Tues.)
May 13 (Tues.)
May 26 (Mon.)
June 3 (Tues.)
Aug. 19 (Tues.)
Sept. 9 (Tues.)

April 3 vs. Washington – First showing of pinstripe-less alternate uniform (against a team with almost the same kind of uniform).

April 30 vs. San Diego – Jamie Moyer bobblehead day. Awesome.

May 3 vs San Francisco – Chase Utley life-size growth chart. If you go, steal one of these for children 14-and-under and give it to your girlfriend, I promise you she’ll make it worth your while.

May 16 vs Toronto – Irish celebration. If you go, wear a “Kiss Me I’m Irish” pin and walk around Ashburn Alley all night, I promise you your girlfriend will break up with you.

May 18 vs Toronto – Phanatic’s birthday. Always a good day at the park.

June 1 vs Florida – “Father’s Day” game. Take dad.

June 4 vs Cincinnati – Boast to Reds fans about how Jimmy Rollins is better than Barry Larkin as you hold up your Rollins MVP bobblehead.

July 9 vs St. Louis and July 11 vs Arizona – Fireworks nights.

July 12 vs Arizona – Italian celebration. Wear a tight T-shirt, spike your hair and tan yourself before going. Also, make stupid gestures. Just kidding, Italians.

July 13 vs Arizona – Shane Victorino “Flyin’ Hawaiian” Figurine. Back by popular demand, Vic’s getting Run No. 2 as a Bobblehip . Hopefully he nails another game-winner.

Aug. 5 vs Florida – Ladies Night. I hear they’ll install a pole in left field for Burrell to get the mood started. I’m already getting a bunch of guys together so we can go and hit on chicks.

Aug. 22 vs Dodgers – 1970s Retro Night. I cannot wait.

They’re also throwing in a Jewish Heritage night to go along with the Irish, Itaian and Hispanic nights. I hope Mike Lieberthal returns for that one. Mark down your calendars, fans, which games are you heading to?

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Odds And Ends: Jan. 20

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Sun, January 20, 2008 07:07 PM

Some odds and ends for this cold weekend:

• The Phillies had four arbitration cases and quickly settled on two: Brad Lidge agreed to a $6.35MM season, and Ryan Madson inked a $1.4MM deal for the year.

The other two without contracts: Ryan Howard and Eric Bruntlett. Obviously the big story here is Bruntlett, who hasn’t yet agreed on the Phils’ offer of $550K while asking for $800K himself. I really think Bruntlett is worth about $600K, so I’m with the Phillies on this one.

Okay, seriously, Howard is asking for $10MM while the Phillies are offering $7MM. The largest arbitration deal ever was for Alfonso Soriano ($10M), so Howard is obviously looking for the best. Last year he matched the record for one-year deals for non-arbitration-eligible players (Pujols, $900K). This year he looks to match Soriano. Logically, if he matched his 2006 output (an MVP, 50+ HR, a .300+ AVG), he deserves to match the record. He didn’t. Close, but he didn’t. That said, Howard should get about $8MM in 2008, a little above the Phils’ conservative-as-usual deal, but much less than what the big man wants. Truth is — he needs another year to prove himself worthy of the bucks.

• Kyle Kendrick fielded media questions this week before making stops on the Phillies Winter Carnival.

Kendrick said he is “not worried about” a sophomore jinx after a rookie season where he went 10-4 with a 3.87 ERA. The jinx may be due to hitters figuring out Kendrick and defenses collapsing on him. Kendrick relied heavily on his defense in 2007, which means it’s very possible the 23-year-old could go 2-5 with a 5.88 ERA before being called down to AAA Lehigh Valley. That said, Kendrick seems unflappable enough, and while he may not match the 3.87, he should stay above the Minors in 2008.

Chris Coste also took queries at the pre-Carnival stop. He said he’s glad control of his fate seems more in his grasp this year. Last year he was pushed back to the Minors after the Phils signed Rod Barajas. Coste should be Carlos Ruiz’s backup in 2008 while also grabbing some pinch hitting spots. But make no mistake, with Jason Jaramillo waiting in the wings , Coste is very much close to being the team’s 25th man.

• In cool news, watch “Aqua Teen Hunger Force” next Sunday on Cartoon Network. John Kruk is guest starring.

Yes, John Kruk. The John Kruk. I’m hoping for some air time with brother-by-another-mother Carl. Kruk will fit right at home in the South Jersey-set cartoon farce.

• Doug Glanville took pen to paper for the New York Times this week, writing an intriguing Op-Ed piece about the victim of illegal substances — purity.

He voiced how baseball needs to run into this new era full steam, scared straight, to recover the damage done. What Glanville said has been repeated numerous times by other reporters and columnists; that said, it was refreshing to see an actual player who was entrenched in the game during the Steroid Era discuss those things. And of all ballplayers, I’m glad it was Glanville — an articulate, Ivy-bred man with a strong sense of both place and history. Between this piece and his managing at the Sporting News ‘ fake 1986 league, I hope Glanville looks to be finding his way into a new career in baseball. He’d be a welcome addition to any front office or bench.

• And to keep the topic hot, check out the trips we’re planning for the 2008 season.

I’ll definitely be taking the voyage to D.C. over Labor Day, so join us there. I want to head to Clearwater for Spring Training, but I don’t know if it’s in the cards. Same with Denver. But don’t you be halted by my inability to party. Get on board — it’s going to be an awesome year for us.

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Phillies Road Trips 2008

Posted by Brian Michael, Thu, January 17, 2008 10:03 AM

Listen up Phillies fans because we are planning at least three awesome road trips this year to see the Phils play.

Phillies Spring Training Trip

First up is the annual pilgrimage to Clearwater. Phillies Nation and friends will be down this year over St. Patrick’s Day weekend (March 14th-18th). During this stretch we will be partying inside and out of Bright House Networks Field for two games: Saturday, the 15th versus Minnesota and Monday the 17th versus Cleveland. If you’ve never been to Spring Training (or can’t stay away), this is the weekend to go. It’s a wonderful mixture of Spring Training, Spring Break, St. Patty’s Day, and March Madness all in comfortable 85-degree weather.

Phillies in Denver

The next event follows soon after Opening Day and will take place at the home of a new Phillies rival, Denver. We’ll be flying out to Colorado to see the Phils take on the Rockies on April 21st and 22nd – the only games the Phillies will play at Coors Field this year. It’s a bit of a hike from the East Coast but it’s certainly worth getting a peak at one of the stadiums Citizen’s Bank Park was modeled after. Plus, we all hate the Rockies for how they manhandled the Phils last October.

Bus Trip to DC

Finally, due to the success of our last trip to DC (pictures) as well as the completion of the new Nationals Park, we will be loading up the bus and heading down to our nation’s capital once again. This season the Phillies play all weekday games when visiting the Nationals, fortunately one of them is on Monday, September 1st, also known as Labor Day. So it’s hard to imagine a better way to spend the day off work than at a 3:05 game in the new DC ballpark. I’ve been monitoring its progress down along the soon-to-be-gentrified Anacostia Waterfront and it’s looking good – a DC favorite, Ben’s Chili Bowl, as been added to the ballpark concessions. So, save the date now and more details will follow.

If you are interested in going to any of these events – particularly the Bus Trip – leave a message or send us an email.

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Lieber Signs With Cubs

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Wed, January 16, 2008 12:00 PM

The Cubs signed Jon Lieber to a one-year deal today, putting him in their running for fifth starter.

Why the Phillies didn’t approach him to re-sign for a year is beyond me, but maybe they didn’t want injuries to creep back into the picture, and maybe the price is steep. I’ll update with more information and a short retrospective on Lieber later today.

Update: The deal is worth $3.5MM for one year.

Lieber went 3-6 with a 4.73 ERA in limited action between rotation and bullpen last season. He spent three years with the Phils — the life of his contract.

When he signed with the Phillies in December 2004, he was set to make $21MM over three seasons, just below the Adam Eaton deal. Lieber’s track record, however, was much more impressive than Eaton’s — he went 20-6 with a 3.80 ERA in a Top-5 Cy Young year in 2001, and for the majority of his career, was slightly better than average.

Lieber was acquired to be a frontline starter. I remember back in 2004 outlining my prospective Phils roster for the 2005 team. Scouring the free agent list, I noticed Lieber and thought “this is a guy the Phillies would take a chance with” — he had a few good seasons and was coming off a bad injury (he had Tommy John surgery in 2002). To me, Lieber would fit the No. 3 role after a poised Brett Myers and either Randy Wolf or a re-signed Eric Milton.

Instead, Lieber was tapped to be opening day 2005 starter, and while he had a good season (17-13, 4.20 ERA), he wasn’t a No. 1 and probably not a No. 2.

Lieber’s time in Philadelphia was filled with some good, consistent stretches, but overall, he was seen as a waste of dollars — a guy who didn’t quite give what we hoped. I don’t blame Lieber — the contract was substantial, No. 2-quality at its time. He never delivered, because really, he never exhibited a consistency of delivering at that level.

The best aspect of Lieber’s game was control. Overall, he walked a little more than a batter per game, including an astounding 24 walks in 2006. But good control without great stuff means easy hits for batters, and Lieber was always one to give up his share of hits — 510 in 76 games.

But he was consistent. When he won, he won a bunch in a row. When he lost, he lost a bunch in a row. You knew what you were getting almost every time Lieber pitched, just by seeing what he did five days before. In the end, his consistency came to a halt with a foot injury last season.

When looking at the free agent class of 2004, Lieber was actually one of the better pitchers signed. Since the Phils weren’t in the bidding for Pedro Martinez or Roger Clemens, Lieber really was the best available pitcher looking back (though Paul Byrd also had a good three seasons since). The bottom line, however, is Lieber wasn’t worth the $21MM for three years — the kind of money you’d more likely give to a No. 2 starter, at least in 2004. Lieber received jeers because he didn’t quite live up to his contract, but looking at Lieber’s career, how could you expect that?

His best days are likely behind him — maybe in Chicago he’ll redeem himself a bit, putting together a nice string or two for the Central-contending Cubs. A 9-7, 4.80 ERA season isn’t out of the question. It’s out of the question for the Phillies, which probably is for the best.

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Braves Beat Writer: Phils Will Challenge Favorite Braves

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Mon, January 14, 2008 07:38 PM

Mark Bowman, beat writer at Braves.com, answered some questions as part of his newest mailbag. The first question addressed the Braves biggest challenge in the NL East, and it was an interesting answer:

“This once again appears to be a three-horse race, with the Mets only currently being listed to satisfy those looking to bet a trifecta. Of course, if New York general manager Omar Minaya is able to bring Johan Santana to Queens, prognosticators will have a much tougher time projecting the clear-cut kings of the NL East.”

Wow. Big words. Remember, many of us Mets and Phillies fans think Santana would make the Mets a clear-cut favorite in the division.

“As the rosters currently stand, I’d say the Phillies appear to be Atlanta’s greatest threat. They have the talent to repeat as division champs this year even if they don’t get another assist from the Mets, whose concerns center around their rotation and not how they’ll rebound from last year’s September collapse.”

I would think the Mets will address their rotation, whether it’s through Santana or at least a No. 4 (Lohse possibly), and rebounding from the collapse isn’t as monumental a problem as most would think. It’s a new season — if anything, the Mets are more aware of the problems that caused their slide.

“The Phillies might regret the acquisition of Brad Lidge during some ninth innings in the band box that they call home. But even if a change of scenery isn’t enough to end the mental woes the once-dominant closer battled in Houston, his arrival in Philadelphia has at least allowed Brett Myers to return to the rotation, and that should be considered a good thing in the City of Brotherly Love.

“With Myers and ace Cole Hamels, arguably the NL’s best young left-hander, the front of the Philadelphia rotation is solid. But it’s certainly not better than the one-two punch Atlanta has with John Smoltz and Tim Hudson. And it definitely would again have to take a back seat if Santana is paired with Pedro Martinez, who will remain at least effective as long as his once-prized right arm stays attached to his surgically-repaired shoulder.”

Statistics say Hamels/Myers is inferior to Smoltz/Hudson, but I’d much rather go into 2008 with the Phillies pair than the Braves duo. Hamels has learned how to pitch in the “band box,” while Myers also knows his way around and has solid starting numbers. And they’re much younger and less injury prone (though Hamels is debatable at times). If the Mets grab Santana, yes, the Mets would have the best rotation in the East.

“Each of these teams have solid offenses and the race should be determined by rotation depth. With Hudson and Smoltz, the Braves appear to have the best thoroughbred duo and thus I’ll peg them as the favorites. But when it comes to the NL East this year, the only sure lock is that the Marlins will finish last.”

Interesting. Of course, he is the Braves.com beat writer, so I guess it’s not out of his league to be biased somewhat. Still, a 1-2 punch does not a division winner make, so thems is fightin’ words from the Braves beat man. And, you know, you can’t just mark the Marlins as the basement dwellers in the East. Remember, whenever the Marlins cut the payroll, they make a giant push. If I’m Mark Bowman, I’d watch what I say.

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