Phillies Nation

Phillies Have Puny Presence On Prospect Lists

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Thu, January 31, 2008 02:38 PM

Keith Law has released his Top-100 Prospects list for 2008.

The Phillies have one representative: pitcher Carlos Carrasco, at No. 53.

Here’s what Law had to say:

“The Phillies’ system is not strong, and Carrasco is the one legitimate above-average prospect in it at the moment. Carrasco’s best attribute is his easy velocity, mostly 90-94 and touching 95 at times, with fringe-average command. His secondary stuff is a work in progress, with his short downer curveball ahead of his changeup, on which he slows his arm too much. Because his arm works well, it’s possible to project him as someone who’ll have three average pitches down the road, and he might pick up a few more miles an hour as he fills out or if he lengthens his stride a bit, all of which would make him a solid No. 3 starter in the majors.”

It’s pretty accurate, and while I’m not the best source on Phillies prospects (this is the best source), Law seems to know what he’s writing. Carrasco should figure to be a No. 3, and it’s way too early to tell if pitchers Joe Savery, Kyle Drabek and Andrew Carpenter have the stuff to make a top-100 list.

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus also wrote out his top-100 list . He has Carrasco at No. 68 and Joe Savery squeaks in at No. 96.

Truth is, top-100 lists can be misleading. You never know where quality will come from. But it’s a good indication of the state of the Phillies farm system — it’s not good, but there’s enough in the middle of the pack that could surprise very soon.

Of all our prospects, I can see Carrasco in the Majors by next season, maybe as the No. 3 starter behind Hamels and Myers. Savery may be projected for late-2009 or 2010, while Drabek and Carpenter seem to be looking more at 2010. Infield prospect Adrian Cardenas could be with the club by next year.

And oddly enough, Law wrote out his top-five prospects for each team. Here’s his Phillies list:

1. Carlos Carrasco, rhp
2. Joe Savery, lhp
3. Kyle Drabek, rhp
4. Josh Outman, lhp
5. Travis d’Arnaud, c

Cardenas is not listed here, and maybe it’s a bit high for Drabek?

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