Phillies Nation

Mets Gain On Santana; Don’t Worry (Yet)

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Thu, January 10, 2008 07:44 PM

The Mets are inching closer to securing Johan Santana in a trade.

While you may be panicking, Phillies fan, let’s give you some peace of mind. Remember, as much as Mets fans don’t want you to think so, we are the best team in the East until someone unseats us.

I scanned Johan Santana’s numbers to find some interesting things:

Some Phillies fans are worried that Santana will murder our left-handed-heavy lineup. But I present this statistic:

• Santana vs RHP: .220 AVG/.276 OBP/.365 SLG
  Santana vs LHP: .223 AVG/.283 OBP/.371 SLG

Looks like lefties hit Santana better than righties. Advantage: Phillies.

Some will point to Santana’s 1.93 ERA against the Phillies, but I’ll point to this:

• Against the Phillies: 4.2 IP, 0-0, 6 BB, 102 OPS+

Against the patient Phils lineup, Santana could be in for a world of trouble. Advantage: Phillies.

Also, Santana has never pitched at Citizens Bank Park. Be prepared, Johan, it ain’t no pic-a-nic.

Finally, the Phils play the Mets six times in April, then seven times in July:

• Santana in April: 9-7 / 4.23 ERA / 122 OPS+
  Santana in July: 15-9 / 3.67 ERA / 104 OPS+

Okay, I’m obviously fishing for poor numbers in his resume (and even these numbers aren’t that poor, and some are extremely small samples), but, here’s the honest truth: If the Mets add Santana, the division isn’t necessarily theirs. In fact, the Mets, in my opinion, have a far inferior offense to the Phillies, while the addition of Santana will probably give the Mets a slight edge in rotation.

What this means most of all, however, is the Phils must answer. They don’t need to break the bank for an Erik Bedard, but they need to find a stable rotation piece and a stable back-end bullpen piece. If they do that, the Mets’ addition of Santana won’t make the Mets the better team.

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