Santana Update: Deal Reached; Reaction
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Fri, February 01, 2008 11:37 AM
UPDATE (6:49 p.m. Friday): The deal has been finalized . Santana is a Met, pending a physical.
UPDATE (5:30 p.m. Friday): The Mets have been granted an extension to 7 p.m. to finish the deal.
UPDATE (5:00 p.m. Friday): Still no word on a deal between the Mets and Johan Santana, but the Mets might get an extension to work out the deal. Meanwhile, Mets fans are jumping off cliffs in paranoia.
As of right now, the Mets and Johan Santana have not come to an agreement.
According to John Heyman of SI.com, the Mets offered Santana $129MM over six years. With 2008, his total salary would be $142.25MM over seven years. Santana and his people are looking for something around $170MM.
The sides have a 5 p.m. deadline to finish the deal.
Ken Davidoff of Newsday (Long Island, N.Y.) says the sides will hammer out the deal, but at 4:59 p.m. Why not milk it?
But my favorite piece of the day comes from one of my favorite scribes, Dayn Perry of FOX Sports. You’ll see throughout the season that I find Perry to be one of baseball’s best writers because he A) breaks nothing and B) relies merely on speculation for his arguments. Also, C) his picture creeps me out. Such a great writer.
He writes:
“And while the Phillies have added Brad Lidge to the fold, they’ve also lost Aaron Rowand and, in signing Pedro Feliz, failed to solve their serious problems at third base.”
Serious problems? The No. 1 offense in the National League didn’t have “serious problems” at third base. They were workable problems. And by signing Feliz, they did solve the problem — they now have an everyday third baseman. He doesn’t need to be Chase Utley. The “serious problems” are on the pitching staff, Dayn.
“The upshot is that the Mets now boast the best starting pitcher in the division in Santana …”
I suppose that’s true.
“… the best position player in the division in David Wright (who should’ve been NL MVP last season) …”
Whoa, whoa, whoa. Where is this fact that says David Wright was the best position player in the division last season? Wait, I’ll look for these facts:
Value Over Replacement Player (VORP):
Hanley Ramirez (FLA) – 89.5
David Wright (NYM) – 81.1
That fact says Ramirez was a better position player. Now, my subjectivity says Chase Utley is the best position player in the NL East, but according to fact, Ramirez was, and I can agree with that.
“… the best closer in the division in Billy Wagner …”
The best closer in the division blew two games for the Mets against the Phillies in 2007.
“… and the best GM in the division in Omar Minaya (Pat Gillick is deliriously overrated, and John Schuerholz is now the Braves president).”
Gillick isn’t “deliriously overrated.” I don’t think anyone screamed for joy when the Phillies took him as GM. Minaya is a good GM.
Of course, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out the No. 1 starter, No. 1 offensive player, closer and GM don’t make a team’s success. Well, you know what, maybe Dayn is right. Let’s see …
I mean, I could have Santana (best pitcher in his division), ummm, let’s say Justin Morneau (arguably the best player in his division and an MVP), how about Joe Nathan (arguably best closer in his division) and, oh, let’s go with Terry Ryan (maybe the division’s best GM for years) and we have to be great, right?
Oh, wait, those guys were actually all part of the 2007 Twins, which finished 79-83 and in third place. I guess, Dayn, you’re wrong again. Way to research.
He then goes on to basically hand the Mets the NL East. Good job, Dayn, locking into your pick in early February. Don’t change your mind, now.
35 Responses to “Santana Update: Deal Reached; Reaction”
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February 1st, 2008 at 11:53 am
Dude. He writes for Fox. What do you expect? Have you ever watched their news?
February 1st, 2008 at 11:59 am
Hey the best part about that list, it was a list of everybody’s weaknesses. Did you see how the Mets got left off that list? Guess they’re perfect!
February 1st, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Mets fans sound JUST like that guy. Fox writers stink, and just look at the surface things. We need to make pitching moves, but people are focusing on who should have been the 2007 MVP? COME ON!!!!!!
February 1st, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Haha true, Greg. So that’s another reason why I love Dayn: He’s also fair and balanced. Which also proves Sam’s point.
February 1st, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Say what they want, the Phillies DO have the best infield in baseball. This is the first time they can say this since they signed Pete Rose in 1979 to join Manny Trillo, Larry Bowa, and Mike Schmidt. The Mets starting pitching is all question marks after Santana and even he had a sub par second half having some in Minnesota question his health.
The Phillies need to trade Helms for one or two quality relievers and either sign Lohse or Kris Benson and they will have every chance to repeat in the NL East.
It is a great time to be a Phillies fan!
http://philliesphorum.mlblogs.com
Thanks,
Bill
February 1st, 2008 at 4:03 pm
How can you say that the mets rotation is questionmarks when your rotatin stinks. Perez and maine are 15 game winners, and perez is in his contract year. Reality check: you guys didn’t even win a playoff game (talk about collapses). If you think loshe or benson (trust me I know) is the awnser then your deluded.
By the way helms wn’t get you anyone, unless you want geliermo mota
February 1st, 2008 at 5:16 pm
No extention…lets all pray
February 1st, 2008 at 5:28 pm
Are the Mets this stupid? You made the trade for the guy. You knew what it was going to cost. What is the holdup? They have to make this deal or this will leave a bad taste in the mouths of Mets fans.
I am hoping this trade doesn’t go through, being a Phillies fan. But WTF, how can this deal not be sewn up yet.
GO PHILS!!!!!!!!!!
February 1st, 2008 at 6:45 pm
more depressing news for the phillies…thats nothing new
February 1st, 2008 at 7:20 pm
“but according to fact, Ramirez was, and I can agree with that”
Fact? VORP is fact? haha Wow. It is a nice point to make in an argument, bu I’ve never heard (or read) anybody refer to VORP as “fact.”
February 1st, 2008 at 7:35 pm
VORP is a statistic based on statistics, and statistics are really the only fact-based measurements, so, that’s a fact to me.
February 1st, 2008 at 7:48 pm
Mets Rotation is all Question Marks? Ok? Best pitcher in baseball on top, Pedro Martinez second, two 15 game winners 3 and 4, and a guy with an ERA under 4 last in the rotation. That sounds soooo horrible!! Phillies di have the best lineup i think in the NL, probably 2nd or 3rd in the MLB. Theres really no holes in it. Brad Lidge isn’t a great closer though. Hes like a 40/50 saves oppurtunites guy.
February 1st, 2008 at 8:48 pm
Flushing is where good players go to retire.
February 1st, 2008 at 8:52 pm
Hmmmm…..Santana’s the best pitcher in baseball huh? Lets look at these numbers:
J Beckett 20-7, 3.27
J Peavy 19-6, 2.54
C Sabathia 19-7, 3.21
F Carmona 19-8, 3.06
J Lackey 19-19, 3.01
C Wang 19-7, 3.70
K Escobar 18-7, 3.40
J Verlander 18-6 3.66
B Webb 18-10, 3.01
R Halladay 16-7 3.71
B Penny 16-4, 3.03
T Hudson 16-10, 3.33
C Hamels 15-5, 3.39
A Harang 16-6, 3.73 (218 K’s)
Santana 15-13, 3.33
I do think that Santana is a great pitcher, but he was hardly the best in baseball last year. Don’t be so quick to buy into the media hype! I’d take Beckett over him any time!
Another thing to note is that last year was Cole Hamels’ first full ear in the big show and his numbers were impressive considering he was injured for 3-4 weeks. These two will have some great pitcher duals the next few years. Something fun to look forward to.
I’d rather watch a great pitcher’s dual with great defense, strategy, and small ball than any AL game. Is it just me, or is the utter lack of strategy in AL baseball boring as heck?
February 1st, 2008 at 10:01 pm
you guys all sound the same minimize what is right with the mets, maximize all that is right with the phils. Then compare your best case for the phils while at the same argue for the worst case for the mets.
Cole Hamels is just as good as the pitcher who wons 2 of the last 4 CY YOUNG awards? THe man whose record is 70-32 as a starter playing for twins? Against The Red Sox And the Yankees? Indians and Tigers?He is supposed to be afraid of your lefthanded dominated lineup? After facing real hitters 1-9 in the american league?
Pedro when he is (not if) healthy owns the best ERA of all active pitchers.
Maine is 26 yrs and after his first full yr won 15 games (same as hamels) but he “took a step Backwards” last year.
Perez finally has a pitching coach who can teach him how to throw strikes who won 15 games last year is our 4th starter.
Pelfrey will either stay in the bullpen or start the year in the minors so he be brought up slowly.
El Duque will be in the bullpen for middle relief. Sanchez is back and feliciano is better.
our 5th starter will be either livan hernandez or kyle lohse.
Our line up no longer has to score more than 6 runs every game because we wont be starting Brian Lawrence or Dave Williams or Jorge Julio. It may not be as good as the phillies lineup, but if it not, it is number 2 in the National League.
I dont mind a little homerism and i generally enjoy a good baseball argument, but most of the people on this site dont know the facts.
Oh, BTW, Im from ny, i hope my grammar is correct, that was some of theinsults ive read against us boorish mets fans.
February 1st, 2008 at 10:05 pm
TacoBellLover: Why are you using two of the worst stats available to compare pitchers? Ws are useless and ERA is heavily influenced by home parks. User ERA+ which is adjusted for park effect. Its only good for comparing within a league though, so adjust AL pitchers moving to the NL up by 15% (this was the average boost players got in 07).
The result Santanna had an ERA+ adjusted to the NL of 149 in 07 putting him fourth behind Peavy (159) Webb (156) Penny (151).
Now his 07 numbers were way off of his career average. Take any given year for the from 2002-2006 and Santana blows every one of those NL pitchers out of the water.
So if you doubt that Santana will return to his previous norms then maybe he is only the 4th best pitcher in the NL.
February 1st, 2008 at 10:08 pm
With regard to whether its fair to call David Wright the most valuable player, I think your WARP does a good job of demonstrating that H. Ramiriez was the most valuable offensively. This obscures the nightmare that he was on the field. Use Win Shares which is much better for such a general comparison as it considers offense and defense.
Here are the top 10 from 07:
2007 Wright D NYN
2007 Pujols A STL NL
2007 Cabrera M FLA
2007 Holliday M COL
2007 Ramirez H FLA
2007 Utley C PHI NL
2007 Rollins J PHI
2007 Fielder P MIL
2007 Gonzalez A SD
February 1st, 2008 at 10:11 pm
With regards to your counter of “Best offense in the NL” to the point of serious problems:
Im not sure that this is really that strong of a point. Normalize for park effect and the Mets and Philies had roughly equivalent offenses. Just look at the home/road splits for 07:
Mets: 437 RS
Phillies 441 RS
Close enough that the difference could be random variation as much as anything else. Not even remotely a position of dominance in offensive production. Certainly not argument to counter the statement of “real problems”
February 1st, 2008 at 10:17 pm
“The best closer in the division blew two games for the Mets against the Phillies in 2007.”
So what? This does nothing to change the fact that he was by most measures the best closer in 07. There is no such thing as perfection.
Its funny to watch you lament the Fox authors research after making a series of plainly retarded poorly researched statements yourself.
February 1st, 2008 at 10:53 pm
Plainly retarded?
Against the Phillies, he pitched 8.7 innings, giving up four runs on eight hits and four walks. Yes, best closer in the division, I’m not denying that. I’m just saying he pitched poorly against the Phillies, so to use Wagner as an argument for the Mets being better than the Phillies is a dumb move by Perry.
February 1st, 2008 at 10:57 pm
Also, I never said Wright wasn’t the MVP. I said Ramirez was — according to VORP — the better regular player. According to win shares, Wright is the better regular player. But according to home runs, Howard is the better regular player.
What my point is — it’s not as cut and dry as “Wright is the best regular.” And yes, I would agree that Wright could’ve very well been the NL MVP.
February 1st, 2008 at 11:00 pm
Even if its a given that the philies own Wagner every time, it still doesnt diminish the argument that Wagner is one of the pieces that makes the Mets a better team. Its not about head to head competition, its about strength relative to the league as a whole. A closer with an era+ of over 161 is a truly rare commodity.
If it were about head to head competition then Pat Burrell would clearly be a hall of famer.
February 1st, 2008 at 11:26 pm
VORP excludes defense.
Wouldn’t you agree that as WS amalgamates all aspects of the game that it is for a statement as general as “most valuable” the superior stat? I think its pretty obvious that as the purpose of the game is to win, and win shares quantifies how good a player is at contributing to this goal, its best fit to supporting such generalizations…
Frankly if voting was done away with and the MVP went to the player with the highest WS I don’t think many people asides from sportswriters and those they influence would complain.
February 2nd, 2008 at 12:04 am
stupid phillies fans…
Santana is a beast against the NL. Nice job last year, you guys had to make fun of us, and then you get swept by the rockies. THE ROCKIES. what pathetic losers. How do you compare cole hamels against fucking Johan Santana. Take your little rally towels and shove them up your asses. Philadelphia is a fucking third world country.
And go ask Rollins if he has anymore predictions.
February 2nd, 2008 at 12:24 am
Santana is a huge addition to not only the top of the Mets rotation, but their back end is now incredibly solid. Both the Mets #3 and #4 starters won 15 games last year. Brett Myers career high is 14. His career ERA is 4.34 and career ERA+ 101. John Maine’s is 4.19 and 103, and even with those awful seasons Perez had in Pittsburg, his is 4.43 and 95. Perez is the youngest of the three, he’ll be 26 through most of the season. Myers will already be 27 on opening day, and Maine will turn 27 in May. Aside from the fact that this is comparing the Mets #3 and #4 starter to the Phils #2, the Phils have a monster dropoff in talent in their rotation after Myers.
Even in a neutral ballpark, the Phils might have the best offense in the NL. But the Mets will still easily fall into the upper third in the division, regardless of ballpark.
Obviously, there are 162 games to be played. Its a lot of time. I think the Phillies are a bit easier to predict, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. They’ve been a consistently good team for a few years now. But the “small splashes” are just that, and don’t dilute yourselves into thinking this is suddenly a 95-100 win team. Brad Lidge wouldn’t have that effect even if Rowand was still around, even if it puts Myers back into the rotation. The Phils are what they are. They’re a group of good players in the primes of their career plus Cole Hamels. They are what you’ve seen over the last few years. Howard, Utley, Rollins, and Myers can’t do more than they’ve been doing, and its unlikely Victorino, Jenkins, Burrell, or Eaton will. These are all guys in or past the peaks of their careers. Hamels is the only significant player who has a room for growth. And Lidge is the only acquisition that has any potential positive impact (we’ll see how he handles CBP with those fans riding him when he blows a save). At best, Jenkins and Feliz combine to make up for Rowands production, and even if Victorino’s great in center the defense in the corner OF spots is atrocious, granted your still solid up the middle and on the infield.
With the Mets, there’s more room for margin on either side of the equation. They have more key veterans that could break down as well as more key youngsters who are still growing as players. Still, without Santana, I had the Mets as pretty close to the Phils if things essentially broke even for both teams. A lot could still go wrong with this Mets team, but a lot could go right, and assuming things wind up pretty close to the middle, they could be more than just a good 90 win team.
February 2nd, 2008 at 12:54 pm
i don’t understand how phillies fans can still be talking shit. just wait for the season and we’ll see what happens. Talking about being dominant in the NL for a pitcher, like 3 years ago after being on the yankees, roger clemens pitched for the astros with a below 2.00 ERA! Johan should be able to absolutely dominate a bunch of the teams he pitches against, especially the phillies. phillies are good and do have the 2nd best first baseman and in my opinion the best second baseman in baseball but as for as shortstop. Rollins is maybe top 4. Hanley is better than him in my opinion. As far as last year goes, Rollins had a ridiculously better season than Reyes had and was clutch in keeping the phillies from being too far out of the race.
February 3rd, 2008 at 6:46 am
American League hitters and National League hitters aren’t all that different. The average AL player hit .271 last season. The average NL position player hit .273. But, throw in the pitchers in NL lineups, and that average drops to .266. A guy like Santana — with a head as good as his stuff — will be able to abuse that dead spot in opposing lineups, and his numbers are going to get better accordingly, a scary thought for someone with a 93-44 overall record and a career ERA of 3.22. Santana already has shown he likes facing NL teams. In 24 interleague starts, he has gone 16-4 with a 2.27 ERA, holding batters to a .187 average and striking out 191 in 182 2/3 innings. Pitching in NL parks, with no DH, Santana is 8-1 with a 1.97 ERA in 10 starts. He seems to be a lock to win 20 games this year, probably for the next few years.
Pedro is back and proved at the end of the season he is very capable to win.
Santana takes the pressure off of 15 game winner John Maine who struggled down the strech.
But count on the effect Johan will have on Perez…lefty schooling a lefty.Look for the consistency to improve in a guy that is in his contract year.
And then there’s El Duque…bunions gone and possibly moving to the pen if Pelphy can win a spot.
The Question is how are you gonna handle the two lefties with the best stuff in the league?
Do you think Lidge will succumb to your bandbox and the Philly fans?
Is Hammels gonna stay healthy?
How long were you in first place…..a day!
Finally,how many playoff games did you guys win?
February 3rd, 2008 at 12:58 pm
The Phils are Phreikin PH-DONE…..YOU THOUGHT THE ROCKIES WERE BAD WAIT TILL A WHOLE SEASON OF DISASTER…..HAHAHAHHAAA
February 4th, 2008 at 12:43 am
PhillR – it is obvious you never passed 9th grade chemistry or any class that introduces hypothesis testing.
“Im not sure that this is really that strong of a point. Normalize for park effect and the Mets and Philies had roughly equivalent offenses. Just look at the home/road splits for 07:
Mets: 437 RS
Phillies 441 RS”
How in the world is taking the runs scored on the road “normalizing” for park effects?
If you really wanted to compare apples to apples, you need to take the road runs and subtract runs scored in Shea for the Phillies (45) and in CBP for the Mets (62).
So if you’re controlling for ballpark (this is not accounting for the differences in pitchers faced), the phillies scored 396 runs and the mets scored 375. That’s several games worth of runs.
As for the person who predicted that Howard, Utley, Myers and Rollins can’t do more than they’ve been doing. I agree that Rollins may not be able to, but if you take a look at the projections for Howard this year…all I have to say is watch out.
And for all of you idiots who are talking trash about the Rockies dominating the Phillies. I can’t wait until the Rockies kick your asses all year. During the stretch run, and up until the long break between the NLCS and World Series, there wasn’t a team in the majors that could’ve beaten that team; they epitomized “clicking on all cylinders.” They got all the breaks, got timely hitting from the least likely players, etc… If the Mets were in the Phillies’s place, they would have lost in 1 game because they would’ve been beaten so bad in that first game they would have forfeited the rest of the series.
As for this Santana business. Good luck with him. He’s a great pitcher no doubt. But no one, not even the great Santana, can pitch with a severe forearm tendinitis, a frayed rotator cuff, and a torn elbow ligament.
February 4th, 2008 at 9:54 am
I love how all the Mets fans talk a bunch of sh*t after they signed Santana..The hell with the Mets and Santana. Good pick up on the Mets, but One player isn’t going to crumble our season. We got a good enough shot as anyone else (so does the mets). Everyone said the Giants wouldn’t beat the Patriots this year in the superbowl, and they did! Thats what happens! Upsets..Just like the Mets last season.
February 4th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
Yea, Mets fans are to funny. The Mets were a lock to win the division last year in September, no less. You think they would have learned there lesson and see what happens. tisk tisk. Nothings a sure bet, not even Johan Santana. The Phillies thought they were set in their rotation last year signing Freddy Garcia.
Now if the Mets go through injuries as all teams do, they have no back ups b/c they’ve traded all there minor league guys that might have been able to play. Can’t wait to see Johan and/or Pedro go down…. ahhh the sky is fallinggg run run..
February 4th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
Sean P.-
The Mets haven’t had a phront line dominant ace of the staff since Pedro went down in the summer of 2006. Remember they went into the playoffs that year minus Pedro, minus el duque, and had to rely on a bullpen by committee because duaner sanchez got hurt in a taxi.
Don’t talk to mets fans about injuries, 2006 we ran away with the division and got to the league championship with no pitching.
2007 we had injuries to most of our everyday players, all the while not having a phront line ace. The only 2 everyday players who didn’t get hurt were Wright and Reyes.
Did the phillies deserve to win the division last year? Yeah, they won it fair and square. No bulls**t, no excuses. However, you cannot p**s on my head and tell me it’s raining.
You cant say the phillies starters and bullpen is equal to the mets. The phillies have a better everyday offensive lineup. They are deeper, and truth be told, i don’t want either of the managers.
The reason most mets fans are coming on this phorum and trolling is we phinally have an ace, and no its not Hamels. When Hamels pitches a phull season and maybe wins a CY Young then maybe we can say he is even up with Santana.
What having an ace does for us is it allows Pedro to come back slower, and takes pressure off the kids.
Also we wont have anymore starts by Brian Lawrence Dave Williams and others who belong selling sheet rock to construction workers, not pitching major league baseball.
I like your phorum, I respect people who can root for their team without acting juvenile, and i really cant wait for the season to start.
Sorry for trolling, just wanted to add my piece.
February 4th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
the only good thing about you is your lineup, and the only guys there are rollins, utley and howard if he doesn’t strike out all the time.
your rotation sucks. its only hamels. and im not impressed with him either.
now that rowand, ur only all-star is gone, i’ll expect a 3rd place finish.
February 5th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
ok look, the season is a ways away, but the bottom line is until the Mets or anyone else clinches the division the Phillies are the best team. I am a die hard Mets fan who hates the Phils (not because of players or team but because of fans) but i know baseball and the Mets have to prove it on the field not on the back pages.
Mets fans who come on this website and act and sound like Phillies fans are fucking morons who don’t understand baseball, and for that on behalf of Mets fans who know the game i apologize. I am not going to compare rosters that is pointless, when the games count then we will see who wins, talk is cheap.
February 5th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
i don’t know why the mets fans get on here anyway. we’re not intimidated. the Phillies didn’t win the division only because of a mets collapse. during the 6 month season the mets had 3 months above .500, while the Phils (after a poor april) had 5 months in a row of high percentage winning baseball. not only did the Phillies have more months of success, but it was also consistent winning (with tons of injuries including: the entire starting rotation minus Moyer, two closers, and two all-stars). so when it comes down to it: Santana can’t make a team consistent. he can only effect 20% of the games they play. they are the one’s that really shouldn’t get their hopes up. they should be praying for team chemistry… that’s what the Phillies have.