About This Fifth-Starter Mess

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Mon, March 10, 2008 10:02 PM

Today was another sickly trip on the fifth-starter roller coater, as JD Durbin surrendered five runs on eight hits in 3.1 innings today. His performance marks another notch in a long line of tough outings by the candidates for fifth starter. Travis Blackley was unable to get out of the second inning in his start, giving up a slew of runs while walking four. Chad Durbin — the one figured to be the first in line for an emergency start — hasn’t been that good either. Bottom line: The three men vying for the fifth starter spot are all failing.

It seems, however, the Phils are going to open the race up a bit more. Fabio Castro, who I originally said isn’t the right guy for the fifth starter job, is getting a start Wednesday. His splits show a pitcher with great numbers against left-handed hitters, but poor numbers against righties. He’s destined for a rough game, and if he doesn’t have one, we’re only delaying the inevitable. I’m not trying to say Castro is going to be a poor starter, but the kid needs to pitch in small doses and develop as a reliever, especially as the team tries to contend for a division title.

The big point, obviously, is why a team trying to contend for a division title is so in flux with its fifth-starter situation. Adam Eaton is bad. We knew that; hopefully, the front office knew that. Yet the collection of replacements reads like the Tacoma Rainers media guide — JD Durbin, Chad Durbin, Travis Blackley, Fabio Castro, Francisco Rosario. To be fair, Chad Durbin’s 4.72 ERA from 2007 is suitable in the five spot, but the Phillies knew Eaton was an injury concern. They also knew Jamie Moyer would be 45 and Kyle Kendrick wouldn’t be a sure bet. Depth — experienced, proven depth — was essential for the Phillies in the offseason. While they grabbed a couple bargain bin starters, nobody screams “experienced, proven depth.”

Nobody except Kris Benson. And if Benson pans out (he threw from the mound again today and felt fine, and will go again Thursday in a Minor League game), we may not need to be distressed. But as it stands, with so much in the air, it’s not exactly a novel situation.

The good thing is, as it’s been reported already, the Phillies will only need the fifth starter twice in the first 22 games — April 9 and again April 19. Both contests, negatively enough, are against the Mets.

But maybe that’s not so bad. Let me break down a few lines for you:

Travis Blackley vs. NYM: N/A
Chad Durbin vs. NYM: 8 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K (3.38 ERA)
JD Durbin vs. NYM: 11 IP, 14 H, 8 ER, 2 BB, 11 K (6.55 ERA)
Francisco Rosario vs. NYM: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB (9.00 ERA)
Fabio Castro vs. NYM: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K (1.50 ERA)
Kris Benson vs. NYM: 54.2 IP, 54 H, 19 ER, 15 BB, 33 K (3.13 ERA)
Adam Eaton vs. NYM: 43.2 IP, 34 H, 13 ER, 12 BB, 18 K (2.68 ERA)

Oddly enough, most of the candidates have good career numbers against the Mets. Eaton carried a respectable 3.86 ERA and .253 opponents AVG against the Mets in four starts last season. Benson has also pitched a lot against his former team and has fared well. Chad Durbin had one start, but it was a quality start. If Eaton returns healthy before Opening Day, there is a chance he’d get those two starts. From that point, however, all bets could be off. It’s not a lost situation, at least not yet — but at some point, someone will have to step up and take over the race. For a team with too many pitching question marks, it’s essential this is figured out soon.

Bottom line: Don’t freak out yet, but I’m sure at some point, we will.

Permalink Comments (40) | Trackback (0)

40 Responses to “About This Fifth-Starter Mess”

  1. Rob (the Phils fan) Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 7:50 am

    Wow Eaton is the best against the Mets. My choice for the 5th starter against the Mets in those games is Pat Burrell. He is a Met killer, the front office has to get him some bullpen sessions.

  2. Gavin Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 9:48 am

    You’re right on all accounts. Its rediculous that our front office was unwilling to make a commitment to some sort of reliable starter. Why the hell is Lohse still unsigned? That throws up a red flag. Affeldt was a guy who could have been signed for MLB chump change. The usual suspects arent going to get it done. I guess we better pray for a miracle in Benson……I think he’s our only hope.

    I’ll probably get struck by lightning for saying this…..the bullpen seems to be strong….if Lidge isnt BSing us about his knee.

  3. Mike Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 9:54 am

    The front office claimed yesterday that they dont have the money to sign Lohse, even though it’s only 4 million.

    Everyone knows they have the money, they are just being cheap.

  4. David Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 10:12 am

    Philly fans are OBSESSED with the Mets…lol…it’s comical!

  5. Brian Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 10:17 am

    I agree with David..what is going on here guys? Why are phils worried about head to head with mets..a lot of other matchups out there..braves etc…i’ve read mets sites too and they do not care about things like this..this is insane! “OBSESSION by philadelphia” (calvin klein ad)

  6. Rob (the Phils fan) Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 10:44 am

    A question for anyone??

    Can the oweners sell the team after this year? I know there is a contractual obligation that they could not sell the team within a certain time frame of building the new stadium.

    I wonder this because I feel the Phillies are in an odd position of trying to be a medium market team but do not have the Farm Talent to fit in to this category. With inflating players salaries the Phils need to make a decision on what type of team they want to be in the future. Which is a shame because of the great core of players they have right now.

  7. NYC PimP DaDDy Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 10:52 am

    GeTs YaZ ArSeS Offa MuH TEam Filly Faries

  8. Tim Malcolm Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 10:57 am

    It’s not being obsessed, guys. Read between the lines: The fifth starter will have to pitch twice in three weeks, and both games are against the Mets, so obviously, stats against the Mets are vital. If the two games were against Houston, I’d throw up stats against Houston.

    It doesn’t look as if the Phillies ownership will sell any time soon. Supposedly they were close last year, but one part owner declined; don’t know if that’s true, however.

  9. Brian Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 11:11 am

    Not the first time the mets have been brought up here..only time phillies are brought up on the famous “metsblog” is when someone says something on the phillies or someone on mets says something..matt cerone does not spend his time talking about the mets 4th and 5th starters vs. phillies in APRIL & MAY..mets worry about all 162 games..i would worry about that awful staff the phils have right now more than how they match up with mets..OBSESSION by Tim Malcolm

  10. David Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 11:17 am

    Tim, clearly you looked deeply into this and I can respect that, but it’s still no guarantee that the “5th starter” will definitely start on those days, especially in late April with all other factors considered. i.e. injuries, weather, blow outs, etc. Seems like the Phils should pick the best pitcher for the job in general instead of against the Mets…and trust me, you want Benson, so you can get the Anna Benson sideshow that comes with it!!!

  11. Bill ala Philly, PA Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 11:21 am

    As a die hard phil fan and long time season ticket holder I have to agree with the mets fans on this one. We won the division last year, but this is a whole new year. Mets look strong and that early on we do not need to be focusing on pitching matchups, rather make our staff the best it can be. Many teams early in season mix up their rotation so the odds it works out is rare. I think the phils (and mets for that matter) need to play ball and not worry about matchups..clearly it sounds we are the ones worrying about them more.

  12. Tim Malcolm Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 11:54 am

    I’ve posted about the Mets when they’ve made news that would affect the Phillies or it’s major injury news. I’ve not posted once about their performance during the spring, personal issues, etc. (If you remember, the “famous Metsblog” started the tickets on-sale post issue.)

    I posted splits against the Mets because it’s likely the fifth starter will have to pitch against the Mets and just the Mets in the beginning. And it’s likely that starter will only get those two starts, as Benson should be ready after that and may take over. Sure, it’s not positive that the fifth starter is set to face the Mets both times, but that’s how it’s shaping up now. It’s a good point to bring up.

    I’m not worrying, nor I am obsessing. It’s an interesting point, end of story.

  13. Brian Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 12:28 pm

    Hey..I have no problems with phils..ill let the teams do the talking and i like the way our staff is built..I definitely would be concerned with my starting 5 and pen if i were a phils fan..pedro seems strong too so we shall see..and you cant take shots at metsblog, as a fellow blogger, you have to respect how big it has gotten…

  14. Tim Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 12:35 pm

    Brian and Dave are jealous jerks from Queens. I appreciate your investigative blogging, Tim. I like your name as well.

  15. Tim Malcolm Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 12:38 pm

    Oh, no, I think Metsblog is fantastic; Cerrone has done a great job with it. I read it all the time, and I see just as much about the Phillies there as I write about the Mets here. So don’t go on about me being obsessed with the Mets – they’re the Phillies chief rival, so I treat them justly, and nothing more.

  16. Tim Malcolm Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 12:39 pm

    Thanks Tim, I like my name too. Mainly, I’m a stickler for news judgment, coming from a journalism background and such. When my judgment is in question, I defend.

  17. David Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 12:47 pm

    By Philly…

    http://www.unlimitedperfumes.com/images/obsession-men.jpg

  18. Mike from Atlanta Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 12:49 pm

    mets and phils both need 5th starters. any sensible mets fan would sign for 18-21 starts from pedro. maine and perez both had rough second halfs last year. braves will be flying right of the gate this year!

  19. Brian Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 12:49 pm

    Definitely do not write as much about phils..like i said, only if Rollins makes comment..we dont use stats to compare vs. phils..i appreciate making the rivalry big..i hope it can get to the level mets/braves were for a few years…1 good year from phils doesnt make us top flight rivals yet..but i hope it can stay as hot as it seems now..makes for fun ball come summertime…ps-
    http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/41EEDBG34ZL.gif

  20. David Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 12:55 pm

    Hey Mike…Atlanta’s time is over…go back to the dirty south…and thanks for taking Glavine back…we enjoyed seeing his 300th win. Thanks for the rental.

  21. Brian Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 1:07 pm

    Mike from atlanta is relying on glav-dog, hampton and smoltz? lol..ok buddy..ill go out on a limb and say its the mets and phils time to battle..you guys can pretend you are still in the hunt

  22. Mike from Atlanta Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 1:12 pm

    don’t worry now that glavine is back on atlanta he will be throwing no-no’s against mets and phils maybe even on back to back starts if the schedules work out!

  23. Steven from West Caldwell Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 1:28 pm

    Phillies and Mets pretend to have a rivalry.. come on! Mets stunk it up to end the year that is the only reason the dismal Phillies made the playoffs. With Santanna in the mix, the Phillies are much like the Devil Rays (Rays) of the NL East.

  24. dan Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 1:35 pm

    Brian, you only need one period after each sentence.

  25. Kevin from Queens Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 1:43 pm

    Dan…leave the grammar to your 10th grade English teacher…The Braves run is DONE. Mets, Mets, Mets…and Philly will battle for the top spot in the East…Dog!

  26. Ben from Boston Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 1:50 pm

    Everyone wants Yanks/Sox rivalry of their own…You NL Easter’s are cute…

  27. Brian Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 2:13 pm

    No one cares about yanks/sox..bring it to your own blog…JD Durbin is poo poo

  28. Rob (the Phils fan) Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 2:21 pm

    The Rays will be contenders this year. Also stop giving Tim M. grief for putting those splits up. It is dedication not obsession.

  29. David Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 2:22 pm

    Are you talking about “The Real Deal” JD Durbin? LOL

  30. Mike Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 2:41 pm

    Why are mets fans coming to this site? Doesn’t that show obsession? An actual question: Does anyone from Phillies nation go over to metsblog and post $hit-talking messages over there?

    Speaking of obsession/fear: Remember last year when the Mets cancelled their game against the Cards even though it wasn’t even raining, in order to set up their staff for the 4 game series vs the phils?

    That make-up game against the cards worked out great for them…

  31. Mike from Atlanta Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 3:03 pm

    Phillies nation? LOL

  32. Mike Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 3:14 pm

    It’s the name of this website, douche.

  33. NateB Says:
    March 11th, 2008 at 4:39 pm

    Obsession? Nobody I know is posting on your Mets site. We own the Mets… look at the numbers and who won more games last year? The Mets fans are ridiculously obsessed with trying to prove a point. The Mets should try competing to Philly’s level on the field! These guys that get on our site and have to be rude and obnoxious- say we’re obsessed! Ha Ha…

  34. Kevin from Queens Says:
    March 12th, 2008 at 8:18 am

    The Mets are good…last year Philly won the division because the Mets played real bad for the last few weeks…NOT because of Philly domination…that is a FACT. We don’t have to prove anything…Just simple reminders of FACTS!

  35. Tim Malcolm Says:
    March 12th, 2008 at 8:52 am

    Kevin, here’s a fact: The Phillies went 12-6 against the Mets in 2007.

  36. Mike Says:
    March 12th, 2008 at 9:38 am

    Kevin’s argument is terrible. 1. We won the final 8 games over the mets. That is domination. 2. MATHEMATICALLY THERE IS NO F-ING DIFFERENCE between each game. Each game is of equal importance. So the Mets only had a lead in the first place because we played really bad (”real bad” – nice writing Kev) in the first few weeks. In fact, if you take away April, the 2 teams had absolutely no business even being compared, we were that much better.

  37. Brian Says:
    March 12th, 2008 at 2:02 pm

    Bottom line..the phils were good one year…great…do something in the playoffs, win a series, get back to playoffs 2 yrs in a row before you can get so cocky..at least the mets/braves rivalry was continuous..as i said, i hope phils/mets can get to that point..with that rotation in philly, im not too sure

  38. David Says:
    March 12th, 2008 at 2:11 pm

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t the Mets win as many playoff games as the Phillies last year? Okay…cheers Philly fans…here’s to a fun year.

    and….to you guys ending up in 2nd…

  39. Mr Ralph Kramden Says:
    March 12th, 2008 at 11:59 pm

    March 11,2008 12:55 PM,David said “Hey Mike…Atlanta’s time is over…go back to the dirty south…and thanks for taking Glavine back…we enjoyed seeing his 300th win. Thanks for the rental.” I am an Amazins fan from WAY Back in the 1970’s,BUT you are wrong in your assessment of Tommy Gunn…..Tom Glavine is one of the best pitchers that Pitched in our Generation.EVENTHOUGH he is a card carrying Brave and his HOF plaque will have an A on his hat,I can honestly say I am proud to have that kind of pitcher on my team…EVENTHOUGH he was washed up in the last 2 years.The man garnishes respect from anyone who is a TRUE baseball fan,Brave,Met or otherwise.Have a Nice DAY!

  40. Mr Ralph Kramden Says:
    March 13th, 2008 at 12:06 am

    OK Guys,BOTTOM LINE.As Much As The Mets Deserved To LOSE The NL East,The Phillies Deserved To WIN The NL East…..Plain and simple.My Brethern Mets Fans can say all they want about what happened,Coulda beens,fractions,games the Mets should have beaten the Phillies.Phillies Phans,I tip my Mets cap to the 2007 NL East Champs,but just remember….As the Phillies were the Hunters in 2007,NOW They find themselves the HUNTED in 2008.Old Boy Scout motto,BE PREPARED to battle,because 2008 is going to be tougher than you think.Have A Nice Day!

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