Stark: Arroyo, Burnett, Sabathia On Phils’ Wish List
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Thu, June 19, 2008 05:58 PM
Jayson Stark’s recent Rumblings and Grumblings devotes a section to the Phillies starting pitching woes and possible trade subjects.
He writes:
“With the help of a number of clubs that have spoken with the Phillies, we’ve assembled this shopping list of starting pitchers it appears they’ve at least kicked tires on:
Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Bronson Arroyo and (surprisingly) Jarrod Washburn.
Bedard just hit the market, so you can add his name any minute now. But those same clubs say the Phillies might have the hardest decisions to make of just about any team with win-the-World Series upside. . If they go for it now — and decimate their still-thin system to deal for a big-name rent-a-pitcher like Sabathia or Burnett — this might be the only year they’d be capable of contending.
To make a trade like that, they’d probably have to give up both of their two most advanced starting-pitching prospects, Carlos Carrasco and Antonio Bastardo. So if they lose Brad Lidge and their rent-a-starter to free agency, and Jamie Moyer retires, Brett Myers doesn’t rebound and Adam Eaton’s first half turns out to be a mirage, the Phillies’ pitching staff next year would essentially consist of Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick, J.C. Romero, Ryan Madson, an uncertain Myers and seven question marks. “So that’s a tough call,” said one NL executive. “Do you say, ‘Go for it, and the hell with next year’? Or do you think big picture, but maybe not have enough [pitching] to win this year? It’s a scary choice to have to make.”
Let’s see, though. If the Phils don’t trade for a rent-a-pitcher and don’t re-sign Lidge they still have Hamels, Kendrick, Romero, Myers and Madson. They’d still have to fill seven spots.
If the Phils trade away Carrasco and Bastardo, then they’re losing Carrasco for 2009. Nothing says Bastardo is absolutely ready to contribute in 2009. So you’re losing one sure thing for next year’s staff, which — while it is Carrasco — isn’t such a big deal.
The Phils know the cupboard is bare in the Minor Leagues. I’d say Carrasco, Bastardo, Josh Outman and James Happ should make the Major Leagues, and Fabio Castro and Drew Naylor have good shots. That’s why if they can coax a team into taking Adrian Cardenas and/or Jason Donald, the Phils won’t be suffering as much.
Aside from that, three of the four names Stark mentions I don’t really like. Only Sabathia is worth the gamble, and even then the price has to fit the long-term commitment.
As bare as the Phils pitching seems in 2009, there’s no sure thing that the Phils could win with their graduated prospects. That’s why this remains the best year to throw all the chips on the table. Lou Marson is my only untouchable. Go forth and go big, Phils.
118 Responses to “Stark: Arroyo, Burnett, Sabathia On Phils’ Wish List”
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June 19th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
If the Phils trade Carrasco and Bastardo for Sabathia (or anyone else) they had better lock up the guy they get in return to a multi-year deal.
June 19th, 2008 at 6:10 pm
Sabathia isn’t open to talks for signing. If he gets traded he wants to hit the market, so he is strictly a rent-a-pitcher.
June 19th, 2008 at 6:18 pm
Is that true…I know the Indians don’t want to deal with a ‘window,’ but is CC himself opposed to re-signing instead of becoming a FA?
If he won’t sign, then the hell with him…no way it’s worth blowing up our pitching staff for the foreseeable future to get CC for 3 months. We’d be better served to focus on Harden or (much as I hate to say it) Bedard, who are under control beyond this year. Failing that, we need to look to second-tier guys on the block who won’t cost a mint to rent.
June 19th, 2008 at 7:04 pm
GO ALL IN!
June 19th, 2008 at 7:11 pm
So what you’re trying to say Greg is to unload the farm and grab like 2 or 3 pitchers?
June 19th, 2008 at 7:54 pm
if sabathia is devoted to hitting the market, id rell him to go to hell. also, sabathia choked hardcore in the alcs. the red sox beat him around. screw that 300 pound overhyped slug.
heres what you do based on the teams out of contention now. you go with one cheap rental 3rd starter like mad dog who iwll cost you nothing.
THEN you swoop in there and do a harden deal if the a’s are done or you go with sheets. theyre risky but theyre worth it. the philscant afford to lsoe their farm for a rental. i dont do rentals in any sport.
mike missanelli proposed victorino marson and carrasco for sabathia. now, i like mikey miss hes my fav philly radio personality. however, thats is INSANE!!! for a guy that is a rental. if the phillies make a boneheaded trade like that they deserve to suck for hte next decade.
marson is a close to sure thing. catchjers that can hit are harder to find than good pitching. carrasco and bastardo cant BOTH go can they? theyd have no pitching if they didnt resign the guy they got.
we talked about the harden deal earlier and that makes a lot of sense coupled with a greg maddox type of low risk c grade prospect deal.
then youve really solidified your staff and you can havetoo much pitching.
June 19th, 2008 at 7:56 pm
i dont even favor burnett now because hes an asshole who will opt out and hit the market too. arroyo will get smoked in cbp because he already does.
that idea about harang is good if the reds wont ask for lou marson
June 19th, 2008 at 8:41 pm
Reds might ask for Jaramillo. They need a catcher and he’s MLB ready.
June 19th, 2008 at 10:33 pm
IMO………
1) The Phils cant trade anyone on the 25 man roster that contributes unless it is Eaton, Ruiz, or Taguchi.
2) The Phils should not give up Carrasco and Bastardo for anyone……I could only imagine one of them for CC, Bedard, Harang, or Harden.
3) Remember that many Phillies fans were ok with Ed Wade trading minor leaguers Cole Hamels and Chase Utley to the D’backs for Schilling……I know no one here would have ever thought that way, but some did.
4) The Phils need to hold tight and not panic. Teams get desperate and they trade guys for less when they feel pressure to dump salary, etc…..(ie. Bobby Abreu). The Phils don’t need to play the role of the needy team, we need to play the role of the team that says, “We can win right now and we dont need your rent a pitcher.” Whether thats true or not. Way too often the Phils give away alot when they dont need to. It always seems like we’re on the wrong end of these deals.
5) We’re a good team now because of the guys from our system. Not every prospect will be great…..but alot of them will and the best teams build from within. I dont know the stats, but look at the best teams over the last decade.
6) Has anyone thought that maybe Bastardo or Carrasco could be the answer?
7) I may be wrong, but I feel like they have a plan. I cant imagine that they would be willing to trade the farm for a pitcher when they wouldnt sign one for free the last two offseasons or trade for Santana for God’s sake. They have a financial plan. They have to. I’m not saying I agree with it, but if getting Sabthia meant losing Lidge, Howard, Hamels, etc. b/c they cant afford them then screw that.
June 19th, 2008 at 10:41 pm
haha Cole Hamels and Chase Utley for Schilling…
June 19th, 2008 at 10:41 pm
you gotta reup lidge and extend hamels. failure to extend hamels warrants not buying tickets for at least a year.
sabathia is a choker anyway.
gotta get harden and maddox. dont give up the farm either. those guys can come cheap.
June 19th, 2008 at 10:41 pm
or sheets
June 19th, 2008 at 10:44 pm
I like going for Harang or Bedard for a reasonable price. I don’t see Sheets coming available, but if so, him too.
I’m in the minority here. I want another SP…….. but I think we can win with the starting 5 we have.
June 19th, 2008 at 10:45 pm
I think Maddux gets raped at CBP. As does Arroyo. Lowe is a good choice, but the experts at ESPN never mention his name.
June 19th, 2008 at 10:46 pm
see im almost willing to guarantee they dont win with the 5 they have now. you saw what the red sox did to moyer and kendrick. myers and eaton would fare no better.
you need another stud. you definitely do.
i like harang a lot. i think hed cost the farm though. hes MAD good
June 19th, 2008 at 11:03 pm
I agree with Geoff. Myers sucks, Kendrick has a lot to learn, Eaton is decent this year so far, Moyer is having a good year for the end of his career…a last hurrah if you will, and Hamels is amazing.
June 19th, 2008 at 11:08 pm
Kendrick can be a solid third starter in a year or so when that changeup develops. but hes still vulnerable in the playoffs as the red sox showed.
i shudder at the though of jarrod washburn or bronson arroyo. arroyo needs to go somewhere that favors pitchers. washburn..what? they better not get that guy. hes been terrible this year out there. i wouldnt give up a C prospect for that junk.
June 19th, 2008 at 11:09 pm
until then kendrick is a 4th/5th starter type.
June 19th, 2008 at 11:12 pm
The more I analyze the pitchers out there, the more I realize that we should focus on guys like Greg Maddux and Derek Lowe, plus a LOOGY. They won’t cost us the farm, and they are much more experienced and dependable playoff pitchers than the bigger names out there. Once I saw Sabathia’s stats from last postseason, I don’t have any interest in getting him:
Postseason Pitching Statistics
SEASON G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L SV HLD BLSV ERA
2001 1 1 0 0 6.0 6 2 2 0 5 5 1 0 0 0 – 3.00
2007 3 3 0 0 15.1 21 15 15 3 13 14 1 2 0 0 – 8.80
Now look at Maddux:
Postseason Pitching Statistics
SEASON G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L SV HLD BLSV ERA
1989 2 0 0 0 7.0 13 12 11 0 4 5 0 1 0 0 – 14.14
1995 5 0 1 0 38.0 35 14 12 0 7 19 3 1 0 0 – 2.84
1997 3 0 1 0 22.0 16 8 3 0 5 22 1 2 0 0 – 1.23
1999 5 4 0 0 28.0 27 9 7 2 9 17 1 2 0 0 – 2.25
2000 1 1 0 0 4.0 9 7 5 1 3 2 0 1 0 0 – 11.25
2001 3 3 0 0 16.0 18 11 8 1 5 12 0 2 0 0 – 4.50
2002 1 1 0 0 6.0 5 2 2 1 1 3 1 0 0 0 – 3.00
Total 32 11 2 0 192.0 191 95 72 5 50 122 11 14 1 0 0 3.38
Finally, look at Lowe:
Postseason Pitching Statistics
SEASON G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L SV HLD BLSV ERA
1998 2 0 0 0 4.0 3 1 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 – 2.25
1999 6 0 0 0 14.2 12 10 5 2 3 14 1 1 0 0 1 3.07
2003 5 3 0 0 23.2 21 12 11 1 14 11 0 3 1 0 0 4.18
2004 4 3 0 0 19.1 11 4 4 1 3 10 3 0 0 0 – 1.86
2006 1 1 0 0 5.1 6 4 4 2 2 6 0 0 0 0 – 6.75
Total 18 7 0 0 67.0 53 31 25 6 23 43 4 4 1 1 1 3.36.0 191 95 72 5 50 122 11 14 1 0 0 3.38
June 19th, 2008 at 11:17 pm
lowe would be nice if the initial options fail.
sabathia is definitely a bad move. i watched the playoffs last year. he hung garbage up there there against the red sox and got smashed.
June 19th, 2008 at 11:17 pm
im definitely a proponent of not throwing away out future for a rental
June 19th, 2008 at 11:19 pm
I’ve been saying Mad Dog for a long time now. Try and snag both along with Harden. If Harden goes down you still have Mad Dog and Lowe. Horde starting pitching like the BoSox.
June 19th, 2008 at 11:21 pm
If you let up some garbage prospects for Lowe and Mad Dog that woudl rule. I’ve been saying it all along that the only prospects untouchable are Marson, Carrasco, and Savery. Maybe Golson and Bastrado.
June 19th, 2008 at 11:27 pm
id go with those 5 guys as untouchable. i think you can get harden and maddox for other prospects. i really think so EVEN dealing with billy beane. beane knows he doesnt have a leg to stand on with the harden deal because of his injury history, hell take what you offer him and hell be happy with it. thats why hes being a hardass about blanton. hell con some desperate team out of good propsects for blanton too, you watch. ill bet harden goes for 2 b prospects and one c prospect
the padres dont care what you give them for maddox. theyll talk tough and theyll take a B propsect probably.
June 19th, 2008 at 11:28 pm
i have no idea what theyd want for lowe because they probably will think they are in the race up until the deadline
June 19th, 2008 at 11:32 pm
I bet you could get all 3 for Cardeans, Donald, the 3B prospect that I didn’t even know we had, Jaramillo(Pads need a catcher), Outman, Drabek, Biseneius, and maybe another 1 or 2 grade C prospects.
June 19th, 2008 at 11:41 pm
probably. they ought to make sure harden and lowe come back if theyd get all 3 somehoe
whos actually solid for this rotation in the future though?
hamels, kendrick, carrasco. myers isnt a starter, moyer is old, eaton could implode next year after pitching well this year who knows. so youve got two empty slots next year. guarantee myers or eaton wont be in this rotation next year. even IF eaton has a good year.
having a guy like lowe around and harden when healthy in those two slots into the future and you have a good rotation. lets say they get harden and maddox. next year you have hamels-harden-kendrick-carrasco-free agent signing? lowe?.
more importantly for the playoffs
hamels – harden – maddox – moyer (myers, kendrick, eaton to the bullpen) condrey left off playoff roster.
looking at that i doubt they go that far.
so they go hamels – harden – moyer – kendrick/eaton (myers, kendrick/eaton to the pen)
June 19th, 2008 at 11:44 pm
everyone knows myers wont be a starter next year. eaton may be here he may not. moyer will probably retire.
this rotation is going to need reloading anyway. theyre counting on carrasco or maybe even bastardo to come up next year.
theyll have 3 or 4 starters without this deadline pitcher. so theyll need to bring in at least one starter in the offseason anyway. if they get a guy under team control for longer than this year you can fill that hole too
June 19th, 2008 at 11:45 pm
What if they get all 3? haha What would you do for a playoff 4 pitcher rotation with Hamels, Harden, Lowe, Moyer, and Mad Dog? I’d say go Mad Dog, Lowe, Hamels, Harden just because of Mad Dog and Lowes post season triumphs. If Hamels or Harden are bad in the 1st round and oyu make it to the NLCS try replacing one with Moyer. It could get interesting.
June 19th, 2008 at 11:49 pm
I’m really worried about Tom Gordon and think we need to send Myers back to the pen to pitch late innings and get him primed to be a key set-up guy in the pen for the playoffs.
Moyer is a good big game pitcher and I’m fine with him as a #3 for the playoffs.
I think you go with the hot hand between Kendrick/Eaton when playoff time comes for the #4.
So we need a good #2 for now and for the playoffs. If Harden requires too many good prospects, he’s not worth it because we would have to get another guy in case he goes down, which is pretty likely.
I think we should snag Maddux ASAP – the Pads are already out of the race, and then try to see if something can be done for someone like Harden and a LOOGY over the next month and a half.
I would feel a million times better about this team if we had Maddux replacing Myers in the rotation, and Myers at the back end of the bullpen.
June 19th, 2008 at 11:56 pm
If you got Maddux and Harden your playoff rotation would be Hamels-Harden-Mad Dog-Moyer
Eaton and Kendrick wouldn’t even be in the rotation.
Your bullpen could be the following
Lidge-Closer
Myers-Set-up man
Romero-Situational lefty
phantom left handed reliever-LOOGY
Durbin- do anything guy
Eaton- Long reliever
You also have Madson, Gordon, Kendrick, Condrey, and Seanez to work with.
June 20th, 2008 at 1:24 am
I’m curious.. if the Phillies aquire a starter (or two) prior to trade deadline and can fit instantly into rotation, which pitcher(s) do you drop from the 25 man roster? The roster can not expand (40) till September 1st.
June 20th, 2008 at 1:26 am
Assuming they get 3 pitchers 2 starters and a reliever Condrey, Kendrick, and hmm…good question Bruce?
June 20th, 2008 at 2:26 am
harden will not come cheap. beane is smart enough to take the two draft picks he’d get and not waste his time with B and C prospects, and while we’re at it let’s not act like the phillies would be the only ones putting their hand into that pot. unless they blew beane away he’d either take the better deal (that about any contender other than the cubs could offer) or take the draft picks.
you’re not getting two starters, if any, the phillies will trade for a loshe-esque pitcher to not lose anyone from the current roster and any important prospects… the safe but probably wise move.
June 20th, 2008 at 2:27 am
also, kendrick would be the pitcher to go barring injury or collapse of eaton. this unless myers mysteriously goes on the DL at some point to get his shit together.
June 20th, 2008 at 8:43 am
Tom’s right. Like single ancient Greeks after Penelope, oodles of contending teams will try to woo Billy Beane to acquire Harden. Beane’s about as smart as they come at snagging the best deal for his good players (he’s been doing it long enough), so getting Harden will be an uphill battle and Beane will ask the farm. Someone will give him the farm. Maybe the Yankees?
I love the Maddux idea. How cool would it be if he helps us bury the Braves down the stretch and then takes us deep into the playoffs?
June 20th, 2008 at 9:33 am
Harden is going to cost at least as much as Burnett, Arroyo, and Washburn… Sabathia isn’t worth the rental fee, and he definitely wants to hit the free agent market because he’ll be by far the top pitcher out there.
The Phillies don’t like signing FA’s to more than 3 years.. and Sabathia is going to command somewhere around 5 years, $70 million… if not more… the Phillies aren’t going to do that because they’ll have to pay Hamels $10 million+ in abitration the next few years.
Maddux and Derrick Lowe are legit starters, that would be good fits on this team.. we need to start rooting against the Padres and Dodgers, because if either of them are in the race, they won’t be moving them.
June 20th, 2008 at 10:02 am
Thats why the phillies dont get the good free agents and dont get good pitching to stay here. theyd probably pony up the money. but NODBODY with a reputation will want to play for 2 or 3 year contracts. it just doesnt work that way anymore. stu dpitchers want MINIMUM 4 year deals usually more than that. you cant get long-term winning pitching with this 3 year bullshit.
also, what? rich harden gets hurt too much and has an injury history. he has to stay healthy to the deadline to even warrant being moved at all. otherwise NO team will want him. beane is going to get hte best deal he can get we know that. hes very good. but he knows that harden doesnt have that A-list prospect type of value
June 20th, 2008 at 10:06 am
Harden is also not as proven as a guy like Haren. Haren is a great pitcher. Harden has the potential to be great, but you never know if his career will be over tomorrow. He’s shopping Blanton high knowing he can’t get anything for Harden. They are also waste deep in talented pitching in Oakland with no offense at all. What are the Yankees going to offer up for Harden, Philip Hughs? Please, we have a lot to offer, and Billy Beane knows it.
June 20th, 2008 at 10:21 am
I wouldn’t go near Harden personally. He’s rarely healthy, and even in a supposodly healthy season this year he’s already been on the DL. Renting Sabathia isn’t worth the price either, so i’d go for Bedard or maybe Maddux.
June 20th, 2008 at 10:21 am
I guarantee Beane wants to build an infield with this trade. we can send him a 3rd base prospect and cardenas as part of this trade. hell like that and itll be a good starting point. they need someone to go alongside daric barton in that infield for the future.
June 20th, 2008 at 10:26 am
Fred, if the price is right it’s worth it. If he can stay healthy to the rest of the season and carry us to the world series then it’s worth it.
June 20th, 2008 at 10:29 am
The Orioles gave up 5 players for Bedard… so the Mariners are going to want a good bit back on him, to even make it worth their while to trade him… I think we should pass on him.
Maddux would be a good fit too, but I can really see him going back to Chicago.
I think Beane is going to ask for our pitchers in return.. thats what he always asks for because that is what holds the most value to other teams.. Hudson, Zito, Moulder, Haren…….. if they had any kind of a payroll in Oakland, they would be a world series contender every year.. cause this guy knows how to build a team.
June 20th, 2008 at 10:33 am
christ… MLB TRADE RUMORS has listed that Curt Schilling is out… the Red Sox are likely to target C.C. Sabathia.
I know hate the Red Sox more than the Yankees… still less then the NY Mutts though
June 20th, 2008 at 10:39 am
The Red Sox won’t get CC. They won’t give up the package that the Indians will be looking for. They’ll dangle something so the Yankees have to up their price, but that’s about it. It was just like the Santana trades. The Yankees made an offer, then the Red Sox made an offer about as good, and the Yankees wouldn’t up their stakes, so neither team got Santana. Boston didn’t want or need Santana they just didn’t want the Yankees to get him. It’ll be the same deal with CC. I really wish the Yankees got Santana because the Mets would be struggling to stay out of last place right now if they didn’t have him, and it would be so funny.
June 20th, 2008 at 10:47 am
If I believe any of you… which I don’t… It sounds like Harden, or Maddux might be the way to go, with a possible return of Randy Wolfpack. Bedard, could be a great get, maybe a bit of an investment, though, the Mariners might want to stay out of the record books for Worst Trade Ever. I don’t believe he could be a clubhouse cancer, you can put the Douchiest dudes into a good situation and they’ll usually warm up. Even you, Dorn.
June 20th, 2008 at 10:52 am
Boy, now aren’t we glad Schilling wanted to stay with the Sox?
June 20th, 2008 at 11:03 am
Who’s that a picture of at the top of this post?
June 20th, 2008 at 11:10 am
bedards value is lower now than last year. hed bring less in return than he did to get to seattle. the mariners shouldnt even trade him. thatd be selling way low. but theyre such a mess they kind of do need to blow it up.
meanwhile, does anyone else think the mets need to blow that team up? say: ok the only two guys who are safe are santana and wright. everyone else is up for the right price
June 20th, 2008 at 11:25 am
Ok…..Predictions. We’ve all stated what we think they should do. What do you predict they WILL DO?
I predict they will get a #3 starter…..probably for Cardenas and a B ML. Most likely Derek Lowe.
June 20th, 2008 at 11:30 am
I’m okay with Lowe or Maddux.
June 20th, 2008 at 11:31 am
I predict they will acquire harden and wolf
i predict they will acquire grabow as a LOOGY
I predict so taguchi will not be on the playoff roster
June 20th, 2008 at 11:34 am
although thats not what i would do.
June 20th, 2008 at 11:40 am
and thats me being very optimistic
June 20th, 2008 at 11:42 am
someone please tell me that there is another Major League pitcher w/ the last name Wolf…
as for what the Phils WILL do – didley squat. sorry boys. we all know the ownership….they have too much faith in their prospects. sad.
fortunately, this team has enough talent that we’ll make the playoffs. run into a hot pitcher or worse, two hot pitchers, and sinoara…
June 20th, 2008 at 11:45 am
I’d take So Taguchi into the playoffs. He’s a good pinch runner. We don’t give him an opportunity on this team to show what he can do. He was one of the reason to the Cards success in the 06 WS.
June 20th, 2008 at 11:52 am
Geoff~ Two starters and a reliever?! Who goes off the 25 man roster? In the real world Gillick will be looking for a mid level quality type starter with playoff experience as a bonus. He has no choice but to do this due to owner’s imposed payroll cap. Plus giving up the farm would be an albatross to the team for years to come.
Derek Lowe’s name has been mentioned and would probably be a better fit for Gillick and affordable (owners’ view). I’m sure there will be a few more names toss in the hat as certain teams give up the chase for the playoffs near the trade deadline.
June 20th, 2008 at 11:58 am
the dodgers are probably not going to sell unless they totally tank.
also. i dont think gillick has any say in who to go after THIS time. this is montgomery taking control over the future of the club.
notice how gillick has been quiet while amaro and montgomery have been out there saying theyre going for it. the only thing theyll leave up to gillick at this point is who to give up in the trade if they even let him do that.
i think hes a total lame duck by now and its really montogemery and amaro. gillick seems to just be an advisor at this point
June 20th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
condrey goes off the roster. madson goes off the roster. kendrick to AAA.
tahts me being optimistic and them getting the most i think theyll get
the practical side of me says they get their man in a number two level guy but only that and noone else.
what WILL happen?
probably something in between optimistic projections and the practical projections
June 20th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
note: ben sheets is not going to be available. the brewers are surging right now.
June 20th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
I’d take Madson over Gordon at this point…
June 20th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Steve Henson, MLB editor for Yahoo Sports says~
“Gillick’s group has no glaring holes. Adding a veteran starter would help in the postseason, but the Phillies’ rotation already goes deeper into games than any other in the NL. Stand pat, Pat.”
Montgomery and owners may have this assessment in mind.
June 20th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
If they stand pat they will get swept out of the playoffs by a team that isnt as good as they are. i WILL guarantee that one hundred percent.
June 20th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
Geoff… just curious, where do you work?? or at least what do you do… is this blog your full-time gig?
The best bet for the Phillies to win a World Series probably isn’t this year no matter who they get.. Sabathia as our #1, or #2 still doesn’t guarantee everything… or anything…except that you would have to give up the farm to get him… same thing with Bedard.
What the SHOULD and hopefully will do.. is go get a guy with some postseason experience that makes us better than we are right now. I would say that we are the 2nd best team in the NL, behind the Cubs.. and Zambrano just got hurt again.. they will be in the market for a starting pitcher as well. I’m guessing Maddux would rather go to Chicago then come here. ..no idea if he has a no-trade clause or not.. or what the Cubs have to offer in terms of Top-Prospects..
My best guess is that the Phillies either land Blanton, Arroyo, or Derrick Lowe if he becomes available.. all of them give us a stronger rotation, and none of them should hurt the farm system that much.
June 20th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
Right now they have a few young stars under their control.. which gives them a 3-year window to contend.. BUT… Myers doesn’t want to start.. Moyer doesn’t know how long he wants to pitch.. Kendrick and Eaton are OK.. They really need to be accurate with how good their pitching-prospects are.. or go get someone that is a real #2.
June 20th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
In going back and forth over this the past couple of days, I think Harden is clearly the best guy for the Phils to get, injury history be damned. He’s under control past this season at a reasonable price, and when healthy is probably the best pitcher in the majors. If we pick him up, we could use a 6-man rotation during the regular season, lessening the stress on everyone (in particular Harden and Hamels due to previous injury concerns and Moyer due to his history of wearing down as the season goes on).
I don’t think the deal on AthleticsNation that Tim mentioned yesterday is realistic in terms of what Beane will accept. What do you guys think it would legitimately take to get Harden? If he can be had for Cardenas, Bastardo, and Mattair, I think it’s worth a long, hard look.
June 20th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
HOCKEY RULES !!!!
June 20th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
Im a database administrator
June 20th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
got like 30 windows open on the PC at all times, this just is one of them.
June 20th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
“when healthy is probably the best pitcher in the majors”
You are on crack…
Here are 10 pitchers i’d rather have on my team: Hamels, Santana, Peavy, Beckett, Webb, Halladay, Lackey, Sabathia, Zambrano, Felix Hernandez, Tim Lincecum,…. Chien Ming Wang, Dice K, Dan Haren, Kazmir, ……+ many others
June 20th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
blanton will require cardenas, carrasco, and one of our other top prospects. for apitcher thats not much better than brett myers. i really soured on him. i thought hed be a good pickup but hes had a bad year.
beane knows that hardens history wont get him much in return so he knows that he has to overcharge people for blanton
June 20th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
Thats a sweet gig. I’m just jealous..
I work in accounting.. and I’m a full-time, wanna-be GM as well
June 20th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
I am definitely a wanna be GM.
Its a busy job because its DBA at a hospital. but im ok with it because my healthcare coverage is sick.
June 20th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
dont make as much as a DBA would in th eprivate sector but its balanced off by the benefits package
June 20th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
Harden 2005 (most recent year with significant playing time): ERA+ 172; WHIP 1.06. This year, Harden’s putting up similar numbers (152; 1.18)
Of the 10 guys Don mentioned, I’d take a healthy Harden over DiceK, Wang, Zambrano, Lincecum, King Felix, and Santana (before anyone says I’m crazy about Harden over Santana, Johan was lights out from 03-06, took a step back last year and isn’t doing much this year, esp. given that NL hitters shouldn’t have much of a book on him)
The only ones I’d clearly prefer to Harden are Halladay and Peavy, the others are toss-ups to me. So I’ll amend to Harden being a top 3-5 guy. Still worth 3 prospects for the Phils.
June 20th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
Don M…Harden healthy is better than almost everyone you listed. Also, the Cubs are so overrated it makes me sick. They haven’t played a team above .500 since May 4th until they played the Rays, and we all see what happened in that outcome.
June 20th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
The cubs make me sick too. they act like they win the world series every year but they have the worst drought still going. espn overhypes this team so much. the phillies beat them twice when they were here. i went to game 2 when hamels allowed one hit in like 7 innings and smacked two doubles. howard and feliz homered in that game.
the phillies are much better than the cubs even with all of their problems.
June 20th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
If Gillick even considers trading three top prospects for Blanton he’s insane, should be fired immediately, and forced to pay back every cent the Phils have paid him so far.
June 20th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
I agree Geoff. The Mets are probably better than the Cubs. They are the most overrated and overhyped team in baseball. Their best players are Alfonzo Soriano who has been hurt all season and Geovany Soto who is a rookie and needs to prove himself. A-Ram seems like he has potential, so does Fukudome, but people need to stop riding this teams dick. Derek Lee is old as dirt. Carlos Zambrano is ridiculously overrated. He doesn’t even have 70 strike outs. I guess it’s easy to have a low ERA when you’re mowing down sub .500 teams.
June 20th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
Pete Cardeans is our #1 prospect and I believe to be very tradeable. We could possibly use him as an outfielder or 3B but he’s a bad defensive 2B with an incredible bat. Sounds like someone else we all love when he 1st came up.
I really can’t forsee him playing in a Phillies uniform with Chase Utley being around.
June 20th, 2008 at 2:42 pm
derrek lee definitely was roiding the year he hit like 55 hrs
on the cubs, i liek fukodome and soto and ryan dempster. cant stand the rest of them. their pitching is overrated really. marmol is a good reliever. zambrano melts down really bad, worse than myers usually does. illy is garbage.
June 20th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
Phil – I agree with your thoughts on Cardenas, though I could see him playing here if the front office is resigned to trade Howard due to long-term signability. In that scenario, Utley could get moved to first and he could play 2B.
That said, I definitely think he’s tradeable at this point. It’s clearly all just speculation, but do you think Beane would take Cardenas, Bastardo, and Mattair? Or would he want Donald or Carrasco thrown in? To me, Marson and Carrasco are off-limits in almost all cases. I probably would put Marson off-limits, period. Carrasco I would trade for Harden IF Beane would take two low-level guys with Carrasco. No way do I give Beane Carrasco/Cardenas/Donald or anything close to that for Harden (or anyone else).
June 20th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
Beane won’t want Carrasco. He has pitching horded deeper than the BoSox.
June 20th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
hell want cardenas plus someone else plus a near mlb-ready position player prospect. doesnt mean theyre A material, just ready to go up and be what theyre going to be.
June 20th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
Cardenas is a grade A prospect. That kid is going to be really good. I see Chase Utley(not as hard working so not as good) written all over him.
June 20th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
If Beane doesn’t insist on Carrasco or Marson, we should do what we need to get Harden. Any package within reason (no more than 4 guys, depending on talent level) should be on the table.
June 20th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
I’ll let up the whole farm as long as it’s not Carrasco, Savery, or Marson. We have a couple of outfielders that shouldn’t be given up unless absoultly necessary, but they too are expendable considering we’ll have Werth and Victorino still next year, and probably Burrell too.
June 20th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
WAIT…….
How come just yesterday.. EVERYONE on here was bitching about how bad the Phillies are… etc.. But know we are all saying that the Cubs are terrible??
Stop being HOMERS and give props where they are due… if the Cubs aren’t good then somebody PLEASE tell me which team in the NL is going to stop the Phillies from making the World Series? I agree they aren’t the best team in the world, and I was there when Hamels got the W against them too… I think we can beat them, but they are among the only teams that scare me in the NL
June 20th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
AND…..
Harden is a good pitcher.. and I’d LOVE for him to be on our team.. BUT.. the guy has started 13, 31, 19, 9, 4, and 9 games from 2003- this year (9 so far) when he started 31, he went 11-7 with a 3.99 ERA.
When he started 19, he went 10-5 with a 2.53 ERA. The guy is good, don’t get me wrong.. but you can’t bank on him being healthy, and therefore can’t count on him as one of the top 3 !!! pitchers in all of baseball…
A couple on my list are a toss-up, or you pick Harden on talent..but staying healthy is key…
June 20th, 2008 at 3:31 pm
Phillies compared to the red sox. but theyre better than the cubs. the cubs, get ready for this now, are GARBAGE! that division is weak. the nl east is weak too but its better than that garbage.
June 20th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
When Harden started 31 games (’04), he was 22 and had a WHIP of 1.33 and and ERA+ of 114. The next year, he started 19 games and pitched to the nasty tune of a 172 ERA+ and 1.06 WHIP I mentioned earlier. Yes, his numbers dropped the year after (while hurt) and he is a clear injury risk, with 4 starts last year and 9 the year before. My point was that WHEN HEALTHY he is perhaps the best pitcher in MLB, and at least a clear top-5 guy. Obviously, the injury risk needs to be factored in if the Phils are considering a trade for him.
Still, our prospects aren’t going to win us the WS this year, we have a short window with the major league team as it’s put together now, and (even with all of their issues) the Phils are likely the top team in the NL, whether the Cubs are overrated or not. Now is the time to make a deal, especially since Harden is locked up through 2009 (at $11.5mm for this year and next combined!!) I wouldn’t clear the system out to get the guy, but if Beane wants, say, Cardenas, Golson, and Mattair, pull the trigger and don’t look back.
June 20th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
BUT… if we follow bruce’s advice, as i overtly msicharacterize what he said, and STAND PAT. they will get swept and humiliated in the playoffs by the cubs.
June 20th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
I would rather have…. Soriano over Burrell, Fukudome over Jenkins/Werth, Aramis Ramirez over Feliz, and Soto over Ruiz/ Coste……… Lee is hitting .289 with 44 RBIs and 14 HRs.. and plays a gold glove firstbase.. lets call that a toss-up…
Their starting rotation consists of:
Zambrano (8-3, 3.13 ERA),
Jason Marquis (5-3, 4.24 ERA)
Ryan Dempster (8-2, 2.79 ERA),
Ted Lilly (7-5, 4.76 ERA)
I’d take every single one of them on the Phillies.. I’m not asking everyone to be afraid of other teams.. but this bashing the shit out of the Phillies one day, and then saying they are by far the best team the next has.. that has got to stop, cause it just doesn’t make sense…
June 20th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
What if the A’s want…. Carrasco, Golson, and either Cardanes/Savery .. plus… you know its going to take a TON to get him. That why I think the talk of adding a #3 type pitcher is realistc, you keep your prospects and make your team better… and if we are already the best team in the NL, that should be good right??
June 20th, 2008 at 3:53 pm
ted lilly is not as good as those numbers. hes total junk. marquis is total junk too. i like dempster. zambrano is overrated, probably a 2 or a 3 and not even close to a legit ace.
i agree about soto. and yes, soriano and fukudome are good. but as a compelte team the cubs arent that good. the phillies seem to have that look about them.
June 20th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
Don M…they haven’t played a team over .500 since May 4th. Look at their record up to May 4th. 17-13…nothing that great. They faced their 1st team above .500 since May 4th and got blown away. Not to mention their wins from March 30th to May 4th only 12 of those games were against .500 teams. The records in those 12 games are 4-8. They mow down bad teams, that’s for sure. I guess that makes them better than the Phillies, right? I guess we’re all homers but not you?
June 20th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
Burrell>Soriano
June 20th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
Zambrano for his career is 90-58 … with a f*cking 3.38 ERA …. How the FU
June 20th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
…guess you aren’t allowed to curse on here…
June 20th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
So let’s see let me recap. The Cubs are 4-11 against teams .500 or above and are 41-17 against teams under .500. hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha overrated?!?! I think so. Anyone else agree with me and think they’re a total joke?
They’ve played 15 games against .500+ teams and 58 games against .500 below teams.
June 20th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
Zambrano occasionally suffers from brett myers retard hyperventilation disorder.
June 20th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
the cubbies are perpetrating some fraud there.
June 20th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
I agree Geoff, total fraud. The Phils ARE the best team in the NL, and with that being said there are 4 teams in the AL off the top of my head that are better.
June 20th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
Carrasco, Golson, and Cardenas/Savery is too much for Harden. I would ask for Embree as part of the bargain, take Savery out, and offer Outman or someone similar. That kind of deal would be something worth serious thought.
As for how much it will take…I’m sure it will take a lot, especially since we’re dealing with Beane. On the other hand, does Beane really want to sit on his duff and let Harden walk, then take 2 picks when he could get an A-level IF and solid B prospects now who are way closer to the majors than Beane’s picks in 2010 will be? From what I understand, he’s looking to gear up to have a serious contender in 3-4 years. He knows Harden isn’t a part of that one way or the other. If he’s content to let him walk, there’s little we can do. I think we have enough prospects that fit the A’s needs that we can apply some pressure on Beane, too.
Is it better to get a #3 guy to rent for this year and only give up a B-level prospect? Maybe, but not in my view. I’d rather see Hamels/Harden/Moyer/Eaton/Myers/Kendrick this year and Hamels/Harden/Eaton/Myers/Kendrick next year than have Hamels/Myers/Maddux/Moyer/Eaton/Kendrick now and Hamels/Myers/Carrasco/Eaton/Kendrick next year.
June 20th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
Figured I’d throw the Phillies record against .500 teams or better too. We’re 11-11. I guess that’s not that great, but it’s a lot better than 4-11.
June 20th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
Just read that Moyer wants to pitch another year in Philly. How do you guys feel about that?
June 20th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
I like moyer as a person. bvut come on man. dont let yourself be the matt morris of 2009.
June 20th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
Well, if he comes back next year and pitch this well again that would be great. I think he’s going for 250 wins and wants to do it in a Phillies uniform. Let the guy retire a Phillie and become our pitching coach. Come on!
June 20th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
myers has got to be in the pullben. he cant be the number two next year, no way. they really cant F around. i agree with pete. its better to get someone that will be here next year like harden.
June 20th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
because if you rent someone then you probably will have the same problem next year
June 20th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
Moyer can come back… I hope that you guys are right.. and the Cubs suck… and the Phillies are the best team in the NL.
So can we please stop bashing the sh!t out of them every time they lose a game?? Right now they are on pace to win 92 games…
The Red Sox and the Angels are better… i’d take my chances against any other team… once you make the playoffs, you just never know..
Have a nice weekend everyone!!!
June 20th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
Agreed
June 20th, 2008 at 4:29 pm
I won’t say the Cubs are a total fraud, but the numbers (and their performance against the Rays) speak for themselves. From top to bottom, I like the Cubs’ staff better than the Phils’, but I’d take Hamels over Zambrano any day. Lilly, IMO, is a joke, Dempster is very good, Marquis is above average.
In the field, the Phils have the edge except with Fukudome vs. our RF platoon, Soto vs. C platoon, and Ramirez vs. Feliz. Burrell is better than Soriano (especially this year), Howard is better than Lee, and the rest aren’t in question.
June 20th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
If Moyer wants to come back, I say great. It’s not like we’re overflowing with starters right now, and frankly I’d rather see him with the ball than anyone on the staff but Hamels. It’s not like he’ll be asking for $10mm, either. Keep a solid #3/4 guy on the staff at the right price and let him keep advising guys like Hamels and Kendrick? Sounds perfect.
June 20th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
I agree. I would like for him to stick around instead of saying fuck you dude. Don’t want to leave a bad taste in his mouth. I want that guy to be our future pitching coach.
June 20th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
Yeah but why not just hire him as a coach? hed be a great special instructor and future pitching coach. i guarantee hell be a pitching coach in a few years. The phillies need to revampt their rotation next year anyway. Maybe you have hamels, harden, kendrick. but other than that i think you can move eaton for positional help in the offseason. i wouldnt take my chances with eaton next year. I think its time for carrasco/nastardo/etc to step up next year and fill out the rotation.
i predict that jamie goes to spring training next year and then retires and immediately gets hired as some kind of coach. i think hed help improve our young pitchers with hands on coaching. maybe he could teach brett myers how to not suck. brett myers will not be inthe rotation next year. maybe not even by playoff time.
im going tomorrow nght to see myers vs saunders. i hope its not disappointing and that myers can recover and pitch well. but i just dont believe that he can do that. he needs to prove himself to me, personally, lol, every time out there from here on out.
June 20th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
nice phil. hes got pitching coach, great pitching coach, written all over him. doesnt he?
when i say i dont think hell be in the rotation next year i dont mean for the phillies to push him out. thats a dick move. you dont do stuff like that. i think hell retire on his own. you have to let him decide on his own. hell figure it out
June 20th, 2008 at 5:25 pm
Yeah, exactly. He said he wants to pitch another year in a Phillies uniform, the point I was trying to make is to resign him and let him pitch he he thinks he can do it. I trust that Moyer knows what he can do. Look at this year, he’s having an incredible year for a 45 year old guy. I bet he’d take a discount too. I really want him to retire in a Phillies uniform and become our future pitching coach or even manager.