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Analyzing Utley’s Struggles
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Fri, July 25, 2008 10:05 AM
Lost in the talk about the Phils biggest fall to date is the struggles of Chase Utley. Michael Radano of the Courier Post had a quote from Charlie Manuel about his best hitter’s problems.
“That’s part of the game. Good hitters hit slumps … It’s noticed a lot, especially when you go two or three games and don’t get a hit. He’ll be OK. I’ll put my money on Utley.”
This is the second known time this season Utley has gone through a slump, but really, since early June he’s been in a wide-angle slide. Since June 3 his average has plummeted from .325 to a now season-low .287. His on-base percentage is at a season-low .370, and his slugging percentage is also at its worst, at .566.
Not that Utley is a big walker, but since June 4, Utley has walked just 13 times. He has struck out 29 times in that span.
Looking deeper, his current stats suggest he’s hitting more fly balls than ever (0.73 GB/FB ratio, compared to 0.89 career). His batting average of balls in play is .288, which is way down from his career .324 (and his 2007 .368). This suggests he’s just hitting balls right to fielders. He’s not hitting the ball on the barrel. His timing seems off.
Interestingly, this slide started at almost the same time the New York Times published a piece on Utley’s then-MVP season. A telling quote from stud Cincinnati pitcher Edinson Volquez undermined the piece:
“Utley, I think this is a little hole he’s got right now, changeups inside. He can hit fastball down and in. Fastball away, he’s going to kill you. I have a good changeup. I just use my changeup.â€
Could it be that Volquez’ quote rang throughout baseball? That he’s getting more changeups inside? Or is it Utley’s problem, that he’s just a little lost, that he’ll balance back out into a .300 hitter?
Whatever it is, the Phillies desperately need Utley to perform much better if they’re going to have a shot down the stretch.
July 25th, 2008 at 10:54 am
you know what? we need to trade him to the……just kidding. he needs to get his act together though. id move him to 5th in the lineup but they dont have any other good hitters to move up ahead of him until they acquire someone.
July 25th, 2008 at 11:02 am
I don’t expect anything from Chase when he comes to the plate anymore. If he got out of the slump he’s been in then maybe he would ignite the entire offense. The meat of our batting order requires all three to be hitting. Otherwise, everything falls to pieces. At least Ryan and Pat are still hitting the ball. If they go into a slump then this team has little chance of clinching the NL East.
July 25th, 2008 at 11:07 am
theres like two or three guys i trust in this lineup right now. well, i guess just two. howard and burrell and theyve each had their own struggles. its pretty clear that they need another STARTING outfielder to force werth and victorino into a platoon. this guy HAS to be a .300 type hitter too. if they dont get that then they might as well just become sellers.
July 25th, 2008 at 11:09 am
Oh you mean someone like Aaron Rowand?
July 25th, 2008 at 11:13 am
Yeah, Vic can’t hit lefties usually. He’s not very good from the right side. Werth/Vic would be a good platoon. Victorino has been huge for us in July though. Victorino is an everyday centerfielder though, he really is. He’s been getting things done lately.
July 25th, 2008 at 11:15 am
Yes, someone like aaron rowand. exactly.
July 25th, 2008 at 11:15 am
the money thing isnt an excuse anymore. winners get things done, losers make excuses.
July 25th, 2008 at 11:18 am
8th inning, bases loaded, 2 outs in a tie game… last year, rowand got a hit more often than not. They pulled out a lot of games like that. I like Werth and he replaces the production but not the clutch.
anyway, i’m a new yorker and heading down to the game on saturday… can anyone let me know if i can bring a bag in to the stadium? Is it like Shea where they just search you? or like yankee stadium where they confiscate the damn thing?
July 25th, 2008 at 11:47 am
Chase will be fine if Charlie keeps him from getting exhausted–this guy plays at 120% all the time and needs multiple days off–his recent problems and home run derby effort clearly show a tired ballplayer–
July 25th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
Todd, they ask you to open your bag at CBP and they take a quick look inside. You’ll be able to take it with you to your seat as long as the contents look ok.
July 25th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
Todd they will let you in but they will check it
July 25th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
“Vic can’t hit lefties usually”
Didn’t he take Randy Johnson deep twice.. and Johan Santana yard as well ?
Todd..
anything you bring in drink-wise must still be sealed.. you can bring in hoagies, chips, peanuts and stuff already opened I think.
July 25th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
cool, thanks everyone.
July 25th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
How about howard. At least utley puts the ball in play. how can you guys just let howard off the hook. he looked clueless against Perez. I know the guy has a ton of homers and rbi’s but the guy has 135 ks. thats 135 times he did not put the ball in play. batting .235 for 10 million dollars. Its funny that you just accept that from him. Mean while you complain about utley. And just to throw this out there. reyes may be young and dumb, but he isnt batting .269 with 6 homers and 35 rbis and he shows up on time so he doesnt get benched especially for big games. by the way reyes gets paid about half of what your mvp does.
July 25th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
I just came back from traveling through time and visiting aliens and I was happy to see that they have things called blogs now. Golly, who would have thunk? I was also surprised to see that the name Jeff is now spelled Geoff? Maybe aliens got to Geoff’s parents too. Oh well, maybe the ghosts of Mitch Williams will never go away. Speaking of Mitch, I visited him when I traveled back to 2003. I can’t believe that such upstanding Philadelphia fans were threatening his life. It just doesn’t fit into their reputation as being classy. Oh well, I am off to my wife beating lessons. Today I am teaching Brett Myers.
July 25th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
he struggles against pitchers when they go inside first then outside and back inside with soft stuff and hard away.
July 25th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
I must admit that Metsos is correct. So many people rave about all the production that Howard provides, but how about average? Defense? Fortitude? If he were a real offensive threat, this team would not languish for nearly two months. He seldom hits the opposite way, and even when contact is made, it always seems a home run. Any player who strikes out that much clearly is a hit-or-miss player - the kind with whom a team on the cusp of contention should part ways. All power, little contact, many punch-outs - he has set that tone for this entire team. The Mets have made them pay for not rectifying this mentality, and many other teams have done and will continue to do the same.
The management - in the dugout and in the front office - must accept some responsibility for the decline of the 2006 MVP. They erroneously believed that he had to pull the ball - because all great hitters, they thought, were supposed to play that way. Why not allow a hitter to strive for contact by clobbering easy fastballs and moving with trickier pitches, then letting the ball fall where it may? And now that the management remains tethered to the hope that this offense magically will eradicate its troubles and has not yet added anyone who can contribute athleticism, this team continues to stretch the limits of mediocrity.
July 25th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
its called an “at bat” and its MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL. Pitchers (the good ones) usually will not throw the exact same pitch everytime. Utley, Howard and Rollins especially need to sack up and start earning those millions…I know its July but soon its “only August” then its “only September”….
July 25th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
So far if you average out $10Mil over the following categories, Ryan Howard has made:
1) $22,522.52/PA
2) $344,827.58/HR
3) $74,074.07/K
4) $10,000,000/SB
5) $109,890.11/H
6) $909,090.91/Error
July 25th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
Phlorida is a racist pig.
July 25th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
i think utley is washed up…..bring back marlon anderson
July 25th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
ok, now thats extreme. or a joke.
July 25th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
probably has to do with the HR derby……….
July 25th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
I’m not even saying the series was a disaster. We lost, but only 1 out of 3 at Shea. We’ve been playing like shit, and the Mets have been playing good. OK, fine, we are in second place, I can accept that. But now the brakes need to be applied, and everyone on that team better do some serious re-evaluation of their attitudes, their approach to the ballgame, and at-bats. This offense and individual players are too good for this and the players to pick it up and find a way to be productive hitters again, or this season will slip away and it will be a damn shame.
July 25th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
why is it a shame? cant even win a playoff game
July 25th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
Well, at least Howard doesn’t charge as much for strikeouts. That might be the dumbest statistical breakdown I’ve ever seen.
July 25th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
send howard back to lakewood……….lets go blueclaws
July 25th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
I agree with David. What use is it to get to the playoffs if we’re just going to get swept anyway? It’s a shame that they build up our hopes every season only to let us down. It’s like taking the school whore to the prom and not getting laid.
July 25th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
Its a shame you guys are all giving up on this team and its not even August yet… and we’re 6 games over .500
July 25th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
What is a shame is that the players are giving up…Jimmy Rollins can’t come to a game on time? Why do we care more than they do?
July 25th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
maybe J Roll was publicizing his episode of MTV cribs and just lost track of time….
July 25th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
i dont think the players are giving up and i dont know where that notion came from… Rollins has been laid-back all year…. I saw that in the Colorado series at home before he got benched, he was jogging on ground balls instead of hustling.
ANd down in Florida I was asking myself why wasn’t he at least attempting to score with two-outs on that lazy ball to LF.
And now this… Why doesn’t he take the “team bus” is that something that other teams do, let guys decide on their own how they want to travel? Why didn’t he get in tocuh with someone from the team to say he was late and why he was late.. Just some WEIRD stuff going on with him this year.. not saying he needs to get traded, because he’s one of the best all-around SS in baseball.. but something needs to get him going
July 25th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
all i want them to do is move all in, sans marson basically who stays, OR start planning for the future. dont leave us stuck in between. just good enough to be in the race but not win anything real.
weve been there for YEARS! time to break free from that by getting top talent at the deadline or start rebuilding a bit to restock the pool.
what do you think i know EVERY prospect in baseball?
July 25th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
I’m not sure this fits the tone given that it’s more of a team analysis than an Utley analysis, but here goes:
People, often for good reason, tout a team’s run differential as a better measure of future potential than their present record. The reasoning is such that, unless you get blown out in your losses but can always manage to win the close ones, you eventually have to compile a lot more runs than you allow to have a decent record. The Marlins have managed to do just that; a negative 33 run differential but with a record similar to ours. This means they’re either lucky or have the heart to win their close games.
On the contrary, the Phillies have a +72 run differential suggesting that, if luck evens out over time and they go 50/50 in close games, they’ve got the stuff to win more than their present record suggests. If the Marlins phenomenon is reversed, though, a team can tank a record pretty badly by losing all close games even if their run differential is indicative of a better team.
Now, let’s further dissect their +72 run differential. The offense was on a tear for a short stint in the first half when they rattled off a 12-2 win over Washington, a 15-6 win over Houston, a 20-5 win over Colorado, a 12-3 win over Florida, and a 20-2 win over St. Louis. In a relatively short period, they had outstanding bursts of offense when it didn’t really matter (does run #20 count for much when you’re up 19-2?) If you exclude those 5 blowouts, their run differential drops to +11. (That’s drastically worse than that of the Braves and only slightly better than that of the Diamondbacks and Dodgers)
How is a +11 run differential team going to fare if it can’t win close games? None of us want to see the answer to that one played out.
July 25th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
is it true J Roll has a vibrating king sized bed? man, he is livin it up
July 25th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Utley hit rock bottom when he struck out and lost the bat. It’s all on the up and up now.
July 25th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Being laid-back is one thing…half-assing things is quite another. Does he want to win or doesn’t he? When your the face of an organization you have certain responsibilities. You don’t get to choose to be laid-back and treat your job like you’re working at the local burger king and just show up late…
July 25th, 2008 at 1:34 pm
utley will only be on the up and up when he gets traded from our organization……remember abreu?
July 25th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
Utley for Cano? that kid’s on fire.
July 25th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
cano isnt really that good. hes ok. not in the same league as even a struggling chase utley.
July 25th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
Cano is young still…he’s going to be the games best 2B in five years.
July 25th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
I once had a job at Modell’s Sporting Goods… over the course of about 8-10 months, I was never once on time for work… and never got in trouble for it.
THAT is how I roll
July 25th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
his body language just doesn’t look good at the plate. he looks completely lost. every time he hits a ball that he thinks is going to be an out, he immediately puts his head down and slowly jogs to first base. come on chase. stop looking at your shoelaces all the time! he looks depressed or something. hopefully this weekend he’ll slap a few into that corner near the bullpen he always bombs em into and snaps out of it.
July 25th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
Cano was supposed to be the best young 2b in the game for the past 5 years and he hits 8th and 9th and stuff in the lineup for a reason.. he’s good, but he’s not as good as Utley, or Kinsler
July 25th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
have you seen the yankees line up?
anyway, chase looks depressed b/c he plays for the phillies. we all know it, we will never go anywhere.
July 25th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
Don M: Well I would hope that the MVP of the National League would want to set a better example than a shoe jokey at Modell’s would…no offense though…one love brother.
July 25th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
agreed there. i liked what i saw from kinsler when we were playing texas. the media always overrates the mets and the yankees’ prospects. for obvious reasons. the yankees have a thinner farm than the phillies and so do the mets.
July 25th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
Cano bats 6th and this is his third season…he’s 25 to Utley’s 29.
July 25th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
There is a point where you have to stop playing for today and look towards the future…I mean, how much do you think Utley will contribute in the next five years compared to Cano.
July 25th, 2008 at 1:51 pm
Calling Phlorida a racist pig is not extreme. Here is what he wrote yesterday (please note that I do not condone this and disagree with everything Phlorida wrote- as I am sure most people do)…
Phlorida Says:
July 24th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
hopefully the jalapeno bacteria will wreak havoc on all the border jumping mets players, and fans for that matter. turn down the reggaeton and finish trimming my hedges. sorry fellas, but these trolling mets bums get to me
July 25th, 2008 at 1:51 pm
I would take Kinsler for Utley too…
July 25th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
well I know now they usually have him batting 6th or 7th.. but 2-3 years ago he was going to be the greatest thing since sliced bread
I forgot to mention … that when I left Modell’s, it was on my own terms…
I started in footwear, and then moved to “sporting goods” where I would have catches with people and play hockey in the aisle.. pretty sweet job freshman year of college.
I had Kinsler on my fantasy team the past two years so I watched him every chance I could… he is a VERY good all-around player.. he and Michael Young are STUDS
July 25th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
Who cares when Phlorida is right? In fact I think I’ll call up Jose Reyes, my grass is getting long. That guy could get it done quick too!
July 25th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
He moved up a spot cause Matsui is gone but not forgotten.
I would not take Kinsler for Utley…
July 25th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
WHOAH who the hell is calling for Utley to be traded. He is in a slump, there is a very good chance Utley is going to go down as the BEST offensive 2nd basemen in History. Better then Jeff Kent.
Rollins only should be traded if there is a deal to acquire an ACE
July 25th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
a young ace…i dont think hamels will be here once he hits the market……he will probably be on the Muts in 2012…….
July 25th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
nobody was calling for Utley to be traded… I dont think anyone on the team is really going to get traded.. if they upgrade at pitcher, and their regulars just step up their production we are back to being a strong team in the NL
July 25th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
Fair enough. Granted there is a lot of hype surrounding New York players, I just look at it as preparing for the future. Four years is a lot in baseball so if you can upgrade to a younger player why not…Cano has better stats through his first two seasons, but the power is lacking and that is something that I would not be willing to give up. I just like the look of the kid…he’s playing for the wrong team.
July 25th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
With Tim’s blog on Utley’s struggles, I thought Geoff would respond with… TRADE UTLEY!!… to go along with “trade Rollins” and “blow up the team”. (laughing) I’m just teasing but do take Don M’s advice of taking “20 seconds” of thought before replying.
July 25th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
who wants to pitch in philly? our park isnt kind…….look at lohse, that guy is a stud now and he was a dud for us
July 25th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
I think Cano would win in a fist fight too…just something to think about.
July 25th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
Then again, with Cano’s nationality, maybe he’d be better suited for the Mets.
That one was for Phlorida…
July 25th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
Thanks Greg. I appreciate your constructive criticism.
I was trying to put into perspective how much money he is making. I guess it didn’t come across that way.
July 25th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
that’s what happens david. Players leave here and their careers blossom.
July 25th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
that is what i have been saying!!!!!!! our team is cursed
July 25th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
If they checked green cards in the majors ..half of these guys would be back in bananaville.
July 25th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! BANANAVILLE!!!! GOOD ONE!!!
July 25th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
Last year, when we got swept in the first round after chasing down the damn Mets in those dramatic last couple of weeks, I was about two bay breezes away from slitting my wrists. It wasn’t even worth making the playoffs.
July 25th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
I don’t remember any of this clubhouse whining banter last year? Rollins should get over himself and his vibrating bed and lead this team.
I feel like I am rooting for the Mets and a circus tent needs to erected over Citizens Bank. Pretty soon Hamels’ wife will be photographed with Lenny Kravitz and Chase Utley will be walking his wife’s dogs with a stripper.
Stop the pressing and just play ball, guys. honestly.
July 25th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
Well if these blogs prove anything its that the Phillies have terrible fans who panic, bitch, and cry when their team is a game out of first.
July 25th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
no, if we were rooting for the mets we would be in first place
July 25th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Those who do not know their history are doomed to repeat it…no one learns from their mistakes. Everyone, Rollins especially, is about ME ME ME ME ME. You don’t win championships that way.
July 25th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Mets have fans who don’t care about baseball at all until/unless their team starts to look like a .500 ball club… fake sons of bitches you crawl out from under the woodwork as soon as their team wins a few games..
Where were all the Mets fans on Wednesday saying how bad the Phillies were?
July 25th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
mets have fans that are rooting for a 1st place team………i would take easley over utley right now……
July 25th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
Don M the Mets are at the top of the league in attendance
July 25th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
Yo Gotta Believe………oh wait uh….
July 25th, 2008 at 2:41 pm
i mean You Gotta Believe……wait a second
July 25th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
I still can’t believe Rollins has an MTV Cribs spot…vibrating bed…jesus.
July 25th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
Its their last season in that DUMP of a ballpark… they sold a lot of tickets doesnt mean that people have been there…. have you seen all those empty seats on TV.. I know i have
July 25th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
Shea is a dump….what was The Vet?
July 25th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
A football stadium.
Our numbers were up that year too, now Mets fans will actually start going though since they started winning. you know im right
July 25th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
The Vet was pretty bad…whenever I was there I worried about getting VD from the seats.
July 25th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
now Methater, their new stadium is nice….fans were a bunch of pussies…..let me wear my HoJo jersey and no one said a thing……….
July 25th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
Whoa David. I’m not courageous or strong or even good-looking for that matter. I have a small dick and my girlfriend constantly cheats on me but I’m too easily manipulated to say anything. I don’t stand up for myself at all under any type of circumstance, but I have to say this. The Phillies are MY team. I live and die by them and I won’t have you say anything derogatory about them or their fans. Please show yourself out.
July 25th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
probably because nobody knows who HoJo is in philadelphia…and the drunk college kids that didnt start a fight with you did you a favor because its a long ride back to your one bedroom apartment when you have a lump on your head.
THAT SAID…
I think the Mets new stadium looks pretty damn nice at least on the views the showed this past week.. I think its going to be pretty decent once they get it all finished
July 25th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
whatever happend to MetsR#1 … is that you david ?
July 25th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
how do you know where i live? have you been spying on me? but i did see those drunk “college kids”…they were about 280lbs balding but had a mustache and i think one punched a girl in a mets jersey……..tough guys
July 25th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
nope…thats not me
July 25th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
David. I asked you politely one time already. I will not be so polite the next time.
July 25th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
So you expect drunk, overweight bald-men, with mustaches… to fight you because you were rocking a Mets jersey?
Why the f*ck does everyone act so tough on the internet? Anyone that starts, looks for, or hopes for a fight.. of opposing fans… should move to Europe and start watching soccer.. its pretty cool when other fans come to your stadium and cheer on their team and long as they aren’t obnoxious about it.. that game last year when they went back-and-forth and the Phillies finally won it was awesome because it was loud the entire game due to all Mets fans in attendence too…… half of the stadium was cheering at any part of the game, and it was great.
July 25th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
thats the game i was at……..what i was saying is they didnt give me a hard time….but young girls wearing mets jerseys had issues with mustached phillie fans
July 25th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
I know one thing for sure….The look on the mets fans faces when we came back and won in the 9th on tuesday was better than sex..
July 25th, 2008 at 3:24 pm
sex with pat burrell?
July 25th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
I believe you… but its the same both ways.. I’ve been to Shea before and had little kids yelling at us “you suck” and stuff with their parents right next to them… and IM SURE that kinda stuff happens here too.
Do me a favor though.. keep posting on here.. under your name.. and maybe people can have actual debates about these teams as the season goes on.
Im on record as being a big David Wright fan.. but I think Reyes is overrated…
I’d like to think what Mets fans think about both teams… besides that they Mets are great and the Phillies suck
July 25th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
this is my real name
July 25th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
Yeah…keep up the bantar…its like being at a virtual mets at phils game
July 25th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
dont really go that way,but maybe ,just maybe,with Pat.
July 25th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
you dont “really” go that way..or you just dont? you sillie fans are all the same……………
July 25th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
I just got shivers.
July 25th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
I just came back from the future. Here is what happens: The Mets take a 3 game lead after this weekend. The Phillies panic and trade Rollins for Halladay. Halladay gets the Phillies back to within one game. However, he eventually gives up four 300 feet CBP home runs to Luis Castillo, sealing the Mets division championship. Rollins, on the other hand, helps lead the Blue Jays to the World Series, where they play the Mets. He shows up late to Game 7 and watches Jose Reyes hit a game winning home run while running around the bases with his finger in the air.
July 25th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
LETS GO METS!!!!
July 25th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
I’m picking a new favorite team,There is too much stress on this blog..LETS GO PIRATES
July 25th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
good luck BK…maybe then you can have make-out fantasies with Jason Bay instead of Burrell.