Assessing Happ’s Performance

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Sat, July 05, 2008 12:00 PM

It’s been a while since someone other than Hamels, Moyer, Kendrick, Myers or Eaton have started for the Phillies, but last night we got a glimpse of JA Happ, who went 4.2 innings, giving up three hits and walking four and letting two score.

For a second-career start, in a pressure situation against a team gunning for you, and against one of the top pitchers of the last 25 years, all things considered Happ did a nice job.

In fact, he did very well, and there’s a lot of promise for Happ.

Happ really reminded me of a left-handed Kyle Kendrick, using location and speed changes to throw hitters off. Both have a high-80s/low-90s fastball, both have an effective out pitch (Kendrick’s sinker/Happ’s slider). But Happ has a one-up on Kendrick because he already possesses a strong changeup. Kendrick is still trying to find his.

Happ’s fastball was hitting about 90 for the most part, and he dialed up to 92 a few times. His location on the fastball was almost flawless. He danced between nailing the outside corner and riding guys inside. When he went outside some hitters took it (Carlos Beltran took two straight in a strikeout), while most hit it weakly to right field, where Jayson Werth’s stout defense came into play. When he went inside most hitters took it for a strike (though David Wright wisely took it in the fifth on an 0-2 count), while rarely a guy tried to pull it, but fouled it hard. To be short, he hit his spots. Only once did he miss completely, and Ramon Castro took the turnpike fastball into right for a ground-rule double.

Because his fastball was on point, Happ’s changeup worked very well. He wasn’t afraid to throw it behind in a count, and did so early against Wright. In the first, Wright hit the change for a weak pop to the deep infield, failing to bring home Jose Reyes. The change remained on the low half of the plate, and steadily hit the gun in the low-mid 80s.

I was very impressed with the slider, which he sometimes used to open an at bat. Most times he used it as his out pitch, and when guys swung they either struck out or made weak outs. Like Kendrick’s sinker, it can be an embarrassment for hitters.

In the fifth inning, however, Happ ran into trouble. Damion Easley hit a good changeup for a hole-finding bloop single. Castro was patient enough to run the count to 3-2, and Happ finally made a mistake. Then he became rattled. The slider was falling off — easy to take for Mets hitters as it bounced in there — and he was throwing it a lot, probably not trying to give up a big hit with the fastball. It didn’t prove too costly, but it brought his pitch count into the 90. What could’ve been a strong six-inning outing turned into five.

I’m not sure if there’s much for Happ to improve upon. The fastball is good when it’s hitting. The change falls in from there. The slider, when it’s not hitting the dirt, is an effective out pitch. He’ll need to gain a little more poise and not be afraid to throw his good stuff when necessary, but you have to be happy with this first start. Against a good, patient offense Happ will be exposed somewhat, and will probably dance to get through five and six innings, much like Kendrick. But against less-experienced and jumpy hitters Happ can get some great eight-inning outings. I’m more excited about his future than Kendrick’s — not by much — and can say with confidence Happ has a chance to be a good No. 3 starter in his prime.

All in all, a good first outing for James A.

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27 Responses to “Assessing Happ’s Performance”

  1. aas Says:

    a

  2. Bear Mike Says:

    The kid did a great job last night barring the BB’s. He definently deserves another start. I can only imagine what Brett is thinking right now. Maybe this will put a little fire under his ass?

  3. Geoff Says:

    I think that adam eaton is not the guy on the hot seat in this rotation.

    happ can stay as a fifth guy. eaton gets shipped out of here because he wont be used in the playoffs anyway again.

  4. Geoff Says:

    now on the hotseat i meant.

    happ can stay. i like his stuff better than adam eatons.

  5. Geoff Says:

    to pat gillick: please get rid of adam eaton while you have the chance, while he has value.

    i believe in not getting rid of oyung capable pitching.

  6. Greg V Says:

    I have to give him this, for his 2nd major league start against a two time Cy Young winner not to mention the Mets, I thought Happ did a hell of a job. Even though he got in that jam in the 5th inning, it did not turn out as bad as I thought it would. Myers and Eaton would have ended up getting the bases cleared somehow. Not to mention, Happ totally struck out Wright and that ump made a bad call.

    Happ needs work, absolutely. It was encouraging to see Moyer and the other pitchers talking to him after he was pulled almost teaching him a class it looked like. I think things will work out good for him.

  7. Bruce Says:

    Geoff~ please count to ten and think carefully in your opinions. ;-)

    After just one start by Happ, you’re once again ready to unload Eaton. Never mind Eaton’s improvement this year including 13 quality starts in 17 I think.

    You said…”Even though he got in that jam in the 5th inning, it did not turn out as bad as I thought it would.” You have to thank Durbin for that (striking out Beltran with bases loaded).

    As Charlie Manuel stated…”better fastball.. with more seasoning, his command will get better”. I wonder if that’s with the Phillies or AAA. ;-)

    My point is to the bandwagoners here, let’s not jump to any conclusions on Happ. He seems to have good “stuff”. However, in the majors, adjustments between hitters and pitchers are a daily occurrence. It will be interesting if and when Happ gets another start, to see if he can improve his command and the maturity to be prepare for any adjustment(s) the hitters will eventually make.

  8. Phil Says:

    Moyer will teach him everything he needs to know. He just needs to listen to what he has to say, which I’m sure he will. Moyer taught Hamels and Kendrick a lot.

  9. rocky Says:

    can someone help me with a question about the draft.did poe sign with the phillies and did anyone see any other signing.

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  11. NJ Says:

    Happ’s not going to stay with the big club unless he pitches two seven strong absoulte jems, Myers is coming back and if it isn’t as a starter (short of Happ starring) then the Phils will acquire a starting pitcher. If Myers does come back stronger then Eaton should be worried because the Phils have made it no secret were very much in the market for a starter and the way Kendricks pitched Eaton’ll be the odd man out.

    Great start from Happ, sure things got tough in the 5th but he went onto that mound with enough confidence to inspire confidence.

  12. Tim Malcolm Says:

    I’m thinking, let’s say Happ has a few 6 IP, 3 R starts or something. When Myers is ready (if he is), Happ gets sent down to AAA and finishes the year there. Then next season Happ takes Moyer’s role in the rotation.

  13. NJ Says:

    What makes you think Moyer wont be a Phil next year?

  14. Geoff Says:

    Moyer should retire after the season and become a pitching coach for them.

    bruce - what is adam eaton your man-love-crush?

    do you not agree that signing people in-season (lidge, durbin, hamels) to contract extensions to A: make them happy (hamels) or B: hold your team together in the future is a BAD idea? thats your other man-crush pat gillick’s policy. do you agree with that policy?

    if chad durbin has a great season and especially is lidge continues this way and you just let it ride until free agency, guess what? its only going to be harder ? (with lidge, maybe impossible) to keep these guys.

    they already are thin in the organization from to to bottom. his policy caused us t lose aaron rowand, someone we could surely use now. if he was offered a deal in-season hed still be here. but you let it go and then some team comes in and offers the moon and hes gone. that is a RETARDED policy. completely idiotic.

  15. Geoff Says:

    i think its worth keeping happ around to come into the rotation next year. just get rid of adam eaton. QS aside, he just doesnt win like he should.

  16. Geoff Says:

    preferably this year, but they seem to be married to eaton.

    what if eaton get net us some kind of useful outfielder because of the inflated value of starting pitchers now? id do it

  17. Don M Says:

    Geoff,

    How come everytime one of us gives credit for Gillick being a good GM… you think its cool to tell us we have a crush on him?

    Who was the GM last year when the Phillies made the playoffs last year? Who got them the bench they have now, along with Lidge, Romero, and Durbin (who you seem to love so much right now)..

    He’s not going to be able to get rid of Adam Eaton.. and he’s been good all year anyway, so there is no need to get rid of him.

  18. Gavin Says:

    I hope Happ likes the weather in SEA. Thats where he’ll pitch in the Bigs.

  19. Phil Says:

    I agree with Geoff to not get rid of young pitchers. We’ll have a young pitching staff next year. Hamels, Kendrick, Happ, Carrasco, and Myers(if he gets his act together). I agree with trading Eaton. If Happ has it together he will be the odd man out. I’d rather them trade Eaton then a young pitcher who has potential. Not to mention we have Bastrada(sp) too.

  20. Don M Says:

    Bastardo* isn’t close to being ready to pitch in the bigs… and correct my if I’m wrong, but wasn’t it Geoff and Phil (or maybe “phil”) that have been saying how bad we need a #2.

    If you have Hamels, Kendrick, Happ, Carrasco, and Myers… you’re going to get smoked..

    IF the phillies could get something in return for Eaton (trust me, they can’t) Im sure they would make that move in a heartbeat.. But he is pitching well this year (not great enough to have trade value at $8.5 Million per year though) and you don’t need to get rid of him

  21. fred Says:

    The only way they could get rid of Eatons salary is by giving him away. There’s really no point doing that, for all we know Happ could be bombed in his next couple of starts. I’d still make a move for a starter and move Myers to the pen, he’s clearly more comfortable there and our ‘pen is on the verge of collapse in my opinion. Gordon sucks, Romero could become the pitcher he was in ‘05-’06 and suck, and Seanez always has sucked. Just because they’ve performed well so far dosn’t mean the ‘pen can’t be improved further.

  22. NJ Says:

    The pen needs to get some youth in there and that’s the only way of finding some longer-term stability in personnel, it’s very important we get Matheison into then pen at the very least. Extending Durbin could a great move but his extended success is no guarantee.

    It would take more than giving Eaton away to be rid of him, as with Helms we’d have to eat most of his final years salary which is a possible scenario if he looses the spot in the rotation and isn’t slated for long-relief. As for Moyer he’s expressed his intention to pitch past next year at the very least and it’s hard to see how that’ll be with anyone other than the Phils, that makes it all the more important to find that number 3 guy (assuming the number 2 can be Myers) that will allow us to round out the rotation with Moyer. It’s going to be tough to see Happ staying around in Philly, by the time a permenant back-end spot opens up the piching prospects at high A through AA are going to be prefered.

  23. Phil Says:

    I have a lot of confidence that Myers will get back to form now that he’s in the minors. No, Myers is not a bullpen pitcher. he does not have the stuff to be a bullpen closer. He’s a starter. He needs psychological help, and if he can get that then he can be a really good starter. if he can’t get it done then see if he has trade value as a closer and get him out of Philly. Myers can be our #2 starter if he has it together. Right now we’re saying trade for a #2 because we don’t have a #2 we have a head case.

  24. Phil Says:

    Eaton does have trade value. If Arroyo and Wasbern have trade value than Eaton does of course. The starting pitching market is ridiculously thin.

  25. NJ Says:

    I’d agree wholy with you about Brett, I think the whole idea of him of an elite closer is one he’s created trying to become the next John Smoltz. I worry if we acquire that elusive number two we will overpay enough for it to hurt and will block Brett’s route to the top of the rotation in his mind.

    Arroyo’s been a solid top of the rotation guy with the Reds since being traded from the Sox untill this years blip which is whats kept his value up and the value in Washburn is his experience which is coverted at this time of year more than anything and Eaton doesn’t have either of those on his cv.

    Eaton’s struggling to solidify his spot at the back of our rotation, he carries very little clout as a veteran presence in and when trade options may be open in the off-season they’ll be much better options available for potential suitors. I hate to be pesimistic but we’d have to be very very lucky to trade Eaton in a deal that benefits us.

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2008 salaries:

Charlie Manuel - $1.5 million
Pat Burrell - $14 million
Ryan Howard - $10 million
Brett Myers - $8.5 million
Adam Eaton - $7,635,000
Chase Utley - $7.5 million
Jimmy Rollins - $7 million
Brad Lidge - $6.35 million
Tom Gordon - $5.5 million
Geoff Jenkins - $5 million
Scott Eyre - $3.8 million
Joe Blanton - $3.7 million
Jamie Moyer - $3.5 million
Pedro Feliz - $3 million
J.C. Romero - $3 million
Jayson Werth - $1.7 million
Ryan Madson - $1.4 million
So Taguchi - $1.05 million
Chad Durbin - $900,000
Eric Bruntlett - $600,000
Cole Hamels - $500,000
Shane Victorino - $480,000
Chris Snelling - $450,000
Kyle Kendrick - $445,000
Greg Dobbs - $440,000
Carlos Ruiz - $425,000
Clay Condrey - $420,000
Chris Coste - $415,000
Rudy Seanez - $400,00
Francisco Rosario - $395,000
Mike Zagurski - $392,500
Kyle Kendrick - $385,000
Fabio Castro - $383,000
J.D. Durbin - $380,000
Anderson Garcia - $380,000
Scott Mathieson - $380,000
J.A. Happ - $380,000
Yoel Hernandez - $380,000
Scott Mathieson - $380,000
Chris Roberson - $380,000
Brian Sanches - $380,000
Zach Segovia - $380,000
Matt Smith - $380,000
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Kris Benson - $75,000



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