At The Half: Step It Up A Little, James
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Thu, July 17, 2008 05:09 PM
We all know the Phillies have a wildly inconsistent lineup. Really, the Phils have exactly the lineup we figured they’d have … well, almost.
We knew Chase Utley would have a fine season. We knew Ryan Howard would still drive people home. We knew Pat Burrell would remain a very good producer and on-base man. Shane Victorino won’t be a great hitter, but will do his part. The Geoff Jenkins/Jayson Werth platoon will perform somewhat average. Chris Coste and Carlos Ruiz are nothing to expect much from. Pedro Feliz will go 20/85/.260. The bench is the bench, blah, blah, blah.
But we all thought Jimmy Rollins would turn in a season much like last year’s MVP campaign. We banked on it. At the very least, his numbers wouldn’t sour too much from the 2007 edition.
We were wrong.
My prediction for Rollins for 2008 was:
686 AB / .291 AVG / 27 HR / 86 RBI / 38 SB / .779 OPS
His projected 2008 is:
560 AB / .274 AVG / 12 HR / 59 RBI / 46 SB / .778 OPS
Obviously his power and average is down. Some is due to his ankle injury, obviously, but some is also plain inconsistency. Many times this season he’s reached base just once in a game, which won’t cut it from the leadoff spot. More times he’s rolled off multi-game streaks without scoring a run. For Rollins to be effective he needs to get on base and score.
To be fair, Rollins has heated up lately, and the Phils offense has been better in turn. It shows that where Jimmy goes, the offense usually follows.
Does Rollins need to perform at 2007 levels for this team to make the playoffs? Probably not — they are a better team than last year’s. But Rollins needs to step it up just a little bit.
17 Responses to “At The Half: Step It Up A Little, James”
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July 17th, 2008 at 5:50 pm
A little snippet from another Phillies blog that portents good times:
“in 60 July plate appearances, Rollins has posted a .321/.400/.472 line, and his overall .274/.340/.438 line is a bit ahead of his career first-half averages: .269/.321/.421. For his career, Rollins has hit .288/.346/.468 after the all-star break.”
July 17th, 2008 at 6:13 pm
Last year Rollins’ OPS was .875, so how can your prediction of a .779 OPS be ‘’similar to last seasons MVP year” ? A 100 point drop off is huge, although not unexpected due to last years spike in his power numbers. His slugging pct. last year was 50 points higher than it had ever been before, so a return to an OPS of about .840 would’ve been a reasonable expectation. However you are right about him not living up to general expectations, and having him on base in front of Utley, Howard and Burrell would make a world of difference. Interestingly Victorino also has suffered a 15 point decrease in his slugging pct., but because of his remaining more healthy this year than last he’s on pace to smash his total of XBH from last season. A bit more power in the 1 and 2 holes would be terrific.
July 17th, 2008 at 6:40 pm
we just got blanton. What a jk gillick is
July 17th, 2008 at 6:48 pm
It’s easy to speculate with hindsight but I had wondered prior to this season whether Rollins can duplicate his MVP year or be true to his career stats of the previous eight seasons. I think I’m beginning to get the answer with 66 games to go this season when I look at his……
Career average: .277 BA, 16 HRs, 70 RBIs, 110 runs, 37 SB, .332 OBP
As TIm said, this season his power numbers (HRs, RBIs, OPS) are way down and more significantly he has scored only 39 runs so far. Of course, one must take into consideration the time spent on DL and the difficulty in finding his rhythm & stroke in hitting once back into the lineup. Rollins usually does well in the 2nd half of the season and can built on his current stats. However, the Phillies better not pin ALL of their hopes on Rollins to help them get into the playoffs. Victorino, Utley and the rest of the lineup must pick up the slack.
July 17th, 2008 at 6:50 pm
Anyone know who we gave them?
July 17th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
well this ensures the phillies wont actually get a good starting pitcher at the trading deadline
July 17th, 2008 at 6:53 pm
I guess its better than Eaton. We’ve place 1st place baseball with Eaton in our rotation, lets just all hope and pray that he’s an upgrade. Dennis Cook anyone?
I hope we’re not done. I still think Randy Winn is very much needed on this team.
July 17th, 2008 at 6:58 pm
From Rotoworld.com:
Report: Phillies acquire RHP Blanton
ESPN’s Buster Olney says the Phillies have acquire Joe Blanton from the A’s for three minor leaguers.
No word yet on the prospect, but the A’s needed to get either Carlos Carrasco or Adrian Cardenas here. Infielder Jason Donald and catcher Lou Marson are the Phillies’ next-best prospects. Getting both Carrasco and Donald would have been a coup for the A’s. What this does for the Phillies’ plans for Brett Myers is unclear. If Myers would be happy in a setup role, it’d now make sense for the Phillies to convert him. Jul. 17 – 6:49 pm et
July 17th, 2008 at 7:08 pm
We got robbed. We gave them Cardenas, Outman, and Matt Spencer. The Cubs gave them less for Harden. This better pay off.
July 17th, 2008 at 7:08 pm
If its CC or Cardenas I’ll be pissed. Donald and Golson hopefully.
July 17th, 2008 at 7:09 pm
Cardenas is gonna be a hell of a player too. Fuck Gillick, he blows. We could’ve gotten someone alot better if we had acted earlier this month.
July 17th, 2008 at 7:13 pm
hey, just gotta hope it works out. Thats all you can do. He’s just like Myers and Eaton. He has good stuff, but………
July 17th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
hahahha, billy beane is an awesome general manager. give up some average innings eater for a guy thats going to be an all star and filler. damn, hes good.
gillick did need to act earlier. but this guys 27 and is under contract for a while at least. they better go beef up the offense if all they want out of their pitching is innings
July 17th, 2008 at 7:16 pm
i wonder if they have the balls to put him in the rotation as the number two. hes a decent three i suppose.
July 17th, 2008 at 7:16 pm
I think its a good trade. Blanton’s gonna eat innings, he’s better than Eaton and we didn’t give up carrasco or marson. Moyer on Fri, Kendrick Sat, Hamels Sun, Blanton Tues, and Myers on Wed. Taguchi gets released for the roster spot, Eaton gets moved to the pen, and Swindle leaves when we get a bat off the bench at the deadline.
July 17th, 2008 at 7:18 pm
The phillies got blanton. What the fuck!!!!!
July 17th, 2008 at 7:24 pm
blanton is actually a great pitcher if he is consistent. look at the game by game stats. he comes cheap too.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7461