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Friday Starter Candidates: Happ, Mazone, Durbin
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Thu, July 03, 2008 10:39 AM
A lot of news today. Lots to update.
The Phillies will decide today who gets the start Friday against the Mets. It won’t be Carlos Carrasco, who suffered tightness in his right shoulder during his start last night.
Word is the spot will either go to James Happ, Brian Mazone or Chad Durbin.
It’s got to be Happ. He’s proven himself down in the Minors and deserves at least one start. He might not be the long-term solution, but there are no other options, especially with Carrasco going down. Mazone is 31; why bring him up when you have a legitimate younger guy waiting?
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July 3rd, 2008 at 10:54 am
Happ got beat up by the Mets last year didn’t he?
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:09 am
Does seniority count?
Compare their current records in AAA:
Mazone: 6-4, 3.18 ERA, 1.07 WHIP (note: just 12 BB in 85 inns)
Happ: 3-5, 3.86 ERA, 1.32 WHIP (note: 30 BB in 77 inns)
Personal choice: Mazone (keeping in mind the chance given to another senior member in the past.. Coste.)
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:11 am
Happ did get beat up but showed promise if possible. He K’d 5 in 4 innings but did give up 5 earned.
Id like to see him go again.
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:12 am
Well the statistics do bode in favor of Mazone, but I’m thinking about packaging Happ as a trade chip or something. Showcase him a little.
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:14 am
Yeah, well it might be hard to trade him if he gets annihilated by the Mets of all teams.
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:16 am
Mazone also had a sub 3 ERA in 06 and 07. Why hasn’t he ever been brought up and tested out?
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:17 am
I think Mazone should be the choice. I also think you can not pitch Durbin because he pitched last night.
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:18 am
Yeah, Happ lost the first game of a doubleheader last year against the Muts, I think.
I want Durbin to stay where he is. I don’t know what’s happening, but I don’t want him waking up from this dream season.
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:20 am
I do not think it was Happ – wasn’t JD Durbin last year who lost the game?
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:21 am
JD Durbin actually pitches well against the Mets.
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:23 am
yeah, Happ started a day game doubleheader against the Mets and gave up a homer to Reyes and was in trouble for most of his 5 innings.
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:27 am
Whoever it is, it might turn out to be a slugfest and a long night for the bullpen. Hopefully tonight Cole can go deep into the game so the pen can rest
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:27 am
The Mets blow.. I think Happ should get the start, or be traded… this is his chance to come up and do well. And if they don’t want to give him that shot, they should try to move him.
Did Happ come up from AA or AAA to make that start last year? And last year the Mets were a whole lot better then they are this year, so Happ is throwing better, and the Mutts are hitting worse… I don’t like our chances vs. Santana (tough LHP eat the Phillies alive) but I think Happ can give us 6 strong and limit them to 3.. = quality start?
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:35 am
For as much noise people make about Santana he really has not dominated, no CGs this year, 7-7 giving up 14 home runs – I would not call that a dominating pitcher. A decent pitcher who will keep you in the game, not not the ace they traded for. much like last year
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:36 am
sorry for the extra “not”
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:39 am
He’s got a 3.01 ERA… and 103 K’s….
He’s nasty… some of his loses are like 3-2 games and stuff, where the NY Mutts don’t score him any runs, because they suck
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:40 am
NC Jason…W/L has nothing to do with how good a pitcher is. Look at his strike outs, ERA, IP, etc. He can’t help that he gets no run support and has lost 7 games. He has been pretty dominating.
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:40 am
Thank you Don M.
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:44 am
Happ was injured last year and tried to play through it. He is healthy this year and should get the call. Mazone would be okay for a spot start though. Both are lefties.
To whoever posted the Mazone and Happ statistics, they are outdated:
Happ is currently 5-6 (poor run support is mostly to blame) with a 3.54 ERA, 104 strikeouts in 101.2 innings (He leads the International League in Ks), a 1.27 WHIP, 38 walks, 91 hits, and has given up 11 home runs. Opponents hit .243 off him and his Ground out/fly out ratio is 1.06
Mazone is currently 8-6 with a 3.28 ERA, 62 strikeouts in 109.2 innings pitched (the highest amount of innings pitched in the IL), a 1.15 WHIP, 22 walks, 104 hits, and has given up 14 home runs. Opponents hit .257 off him and his Ground out/fly out ratio is 0.68
Mazone’s ERA and WHIP are a little better but there isn’t a huge difference between the two in those stats. However Happ gets a lot more strikeouts than Mazone. Even when Happ started last year for the mets when he was hurt he had 5 strikeouts in 4 innings. Mazone has given up a few more HR than Happ, but its not a big difference either. Happ gives up more walks than Mazone, but Mazone gives up more hits than Happ. Happ gets a lot more ground balls than Mazone does so that would help him at CBP. I would go with Happ, its time for him to show he can be a ML pitcher. I would rather have him be the 4/5th starter in the future than pay somebody like Eaton big bucks to do it.
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:49 am
Since Happ is leading the International League in strikeouts I wanted to see who lead the IL in Ks the past few years. JP Howell (now of the Tampa Bay Rays) did in in 2007 and our own Chad Durbin did it in 2006.
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:50 am
Santana is just nasty and I hate him. He already beat us once this year and I fully expect he’ll do it again, but you never know, the Muts offense isn’t too great.
I heard that Moises Alou may come back for the Phillies series. So we’ll have to contend with Alou for the first three innings until he gets hurt and then it’s Endy Chavez time!
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:52 am
I think the nod goes to Happ because he’s ” Whats HAPPening.” But in all seriousness I think this is the time for Happ to make or break his future with the Phils in the big leagues.
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:53 am
I was at the game with Santana vs Hamels and Hamels is basically a clone of Santana. He just is not as experienced as Santana. I guarantee you that Hamels will put up Santana’s Cy Young numbers sometime soon.
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:58 am
My choice would be Happ I think. I don’t know much about Mazone but there’s always a lot of talk on this site about Carrasco and Happ. If Carrasco can’t make the start, I’d like to see Happ come up and see how he reacts. We can see what he is really made of and stop wondering what kind of player we have down in the minors.
July 3rd, 2008 at 12:04 pm
Durbin won’t make the start he pitched 2 innings last night. It’s gotta be Happ, he’s developed as far as he’s ever going too, and you never know e could end up being a Kendrick clone who just gets it done in the majors. Should that happen you can either trade him high or keep starting him until Myers is absoloutley ready to return.
July 3rd, 2008 at 12:05 pm
All true about Santana a lot of K’s and a solid era. But if the guy can not win games he can be the filthiest pitcher in baseball. What would you rather a pitcher who gets out but wins 17 or 18 games. Or Santana who will strike out about 7-10 per game but only be a .500 pitcher (which is what he is projected to be this year 13-13). One would think if he continues to pitch the way he has sooner or later he will start to win games. I am just suggesting that 7-7 pitcher is NOT what the mets traded for.
July 3rd, 2008 at 12:09 pm
Yea but Santana is living up to his end of the bargin… with a 3.01 ERA… and 103 Ks…. his record should be more like 10-4 right now…. and then we’d be saying he’s the best pitcher in the NL.
July 3rd, 2008 at 12:10 pm
I agree – he is one of the top 5 pitchers in the game – but that really does not get a team anything at the end of the day it is about Ws and Ls.
July 3rd, 2008 at 12:12 pm
Agreed Dom. There’s a huge difference between a .500 Santana this season and a .500 Eaton from alst season. At that difference is run support. The Met’s blow, simple as that. If Santana was getting run support he’d be looking very worth the money.
July 3rd, 2008 at 12:15 pm
Right… which is why when teams spend huge money on a pitcher… who only plays in 35 of their 162 games… and they sign him for 7 years… they screw themselves for years to come.
If Santana was on the Red Sox, or the Phillies, or whoever he would have 10-12 wins right now
July 3rd, 2008 at 12:19 pm
This is a circular conversation because he is one of if not the best pitcher on a team that blows a fat one.
July 3rd, 2008 at 12:22 pm
Pitching Wins and Losses are a terrible stat. Look at ERA and WHIP, not pitching Ws and Ls which are dependant on your team’s offense and your team’s bullpen.
Johan is the best pitcher in baseball, unfortunately.
July 3rd, 2008 at 12:22 pm
Eaton has 3 wins and Hamels has 8. Both should have 5 more wins than they do, but they get no run support. I’m not bashing Moyer or Kendrick when I say this, but those guys get TONS of run support, and they shouldn’t have as many wins as they do, well Moyer should. His last 3 or 4 starts he’s gotten no run support at all and lost the game eventhough he pitched well enough to get the win. The sooner people stop looking at W/L as the end all be all of a pitchers skill the quicker they’ll realize if a pitcher is good or not and the faster they’ll understand the game of baseball.
July 3rd, 2008 at 12:23 pm
true dat.
“Drive Safely” and “Ohh, I heard there is a major backup on the turnpike!” are among the better things to say to Muts fans after they lose in Philadelphia.
July 3rd, 2008 at 12:24 pm
“All true about Santana a lot of K’s and a solid era. But if the guy can not win games he can be the filthiest pitcher in baseball. What would you rather a pitcher who gets out but wins 17 or 18 games. Or Santana who will strike out about 7-10 per game but only be a .500 pitcher (which is what he is projected to be this year 13-13). One would think if he continues to pitch the way he has sooner or later he will start to win games. I am just suggesting that 7-7 pitcher is NOT what the mets traded for.”
You are contradicting yourself left and right…
July 3rd, 2008 at 12:25 pm
None of the blame can be put on Santana for his record, he keeps the team in games and its a shame that if he gives up 2 runs over seven and gets no run support that most of the time he’ll take a loss. He’s still a great pitcher no matter what his record portrays.
July 3rd, 2008 at 12:25 pm
How about your a met fan … drive off the Walt Whitman?
July 3rd, 2008 at 12:25 pm
From the mouths of MLB players all over…. the most accurate stat to tell how good a pitcher really is… ERA!!! …I like WHIP too just because it lets you see how often runners are on.. like Myers and Gordon allow like 7 baserunner an inning, which is among the reasons why they suck
July 3rd, 2008 at 12:31 pm
What I am saying is if everyone is in agreement that the Mets suck – then give all of the personal accomplishments to Santana you want. He is still part of that team which sucks. In the case of an ace pitcher they are expected to win the close games (The 3-2 games he has been losing!). My inital comment of Sanatana not been dominate was taken to mean he is not a good pitcher, which I am agreeing that he is, but the mets were looking for a 20 guy to get them into the playoffs/ WS – and right now he is part of the collective sucking that goes on in Shea.
July 3rd, 2008 at 12:32 pm
Yeah, I’m a Mets fan because I can honestly sit here and say Santana is a filthy pitcher and you’re a moron who judges a pitcher from his W/L. If you judge a pitcher for his W/L then Beckett would have won the Cy Young last year instead of Sabathia who owned Beckett in stats last year. Brandon Webb won his cy young with 16 wins eventhough there were a couple of 20 winners that year, but Webb outperformed everyone else in every other category. W/L is a team stat, you really need to realize that and not think I’m a Mets fan because I’m unbiased.
July 3rd, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Santana doesn’t suck though, just the rest of his team…Whether he wins 5 games or 20 games, he still keeps them in the game and pitches great.
July 3rd, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Last game started by Santana
6.0 4h 3r 3er 4BB (that 8 people on base for the game) 8k 4.50 ERA
July 3rd, 2008 at 12:35 pm
Oh wow, 1 start. Still a Q though. Want me to pull up Hamels bad starts?
July 3rd, 2008 at 12:35 pm
No I was saying what else to say to Met fans from don M comment above. Please read before posting….
July 3rd, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Oh, my bad…I thought you were telling me to drive off the Walt Whitman bridge.
July 3rd, 2008 at 12:38 pm
No Met fans
July 3rd, 2008 at 12:40 pm
I realize that now.
July 3rd, 2008 at 12:40 pm
3 of 4 this weekend would be nice.
Did anyone catch that Mets loss late last night. Feliciano the lefty specialist was brought in to face Duncan and gave up a homer. Sweet, just sweet. Those late losses just kill a team mentally. Good stuff.
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:03 pm
Santana still is a great pitcher. There’s no doubt about that. He has given up 8 unearned runs though over the season, and even at unearned some of that has to fall on him for not being dominant enough to get out of the situations he’s found himself in. For example, when Mariners pitcher Felix Hernandez hit a grand slam off him last week? All four runs unearned.
Santana is still great, no doubt about it. But there are still at least a half dozen pitchers in the NL who’ve been better than him this season. Let’s not give him too much respect.
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:05 pm
True, but he’s a notoriously slow starter and if I had to pitch one starter right now, I’d pick him. He’s the best pitcher in baseball and that’s not giving him too much respect.
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:10 pm
Webb, Harren, Sheets…. is anyone else in the NL even close to Santana right now? Cole Hamels is probably next on the list along with Oswalt. Peavy is still a great pitcher too, the Padres give him NO RUN SUPPORT either..
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:12 pm
good point Don, peavy and webb are probably the 2nd and 3rd best starters in the NL, but can anyone honestly take them over Santana? Does anyone not think Santana won’t be among the top 2 in ERA by the end of the season?
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:13 pm
we forgot about Lincecum and to a lesser extent-Volquez. Lincecum is just nasty, even though the Phils beat him up twice last year. I’ve been arguing with a buddy of mind saying that hamels is better than Lincecum, but my argument is getting worse and worse with every lincecum start.
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:15 pm
I wouldn’t say anyone mentioned is the best pitcher in the NL. Tim Lincecum is the best pitcher in the NL, actually best pitcher in baseball. That guy has the best mechanics I’ve ever seen. He is going to be ridiculous the more time he spends in the majors.
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:16 pm
agreed Phil.
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:19 pm
Volquez is really good too, but he’s beginning to get figured out. He’s also really wild, and gets batters to swing at the crappiest pitchers ever. He’s good, but he’ll get figured out. Hamels and Santana are great because they’re left handers. If they were righties they’d just be pretty good. Lefties have a harder time because naturally they’re going to face more right handed batters. Hamels and Santana are amazing because they are so good at disguising that nasty change up they have.
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:22 pm
Lincecum is the best pitcher in baseball right now period.
Right now, in the NL I’d also take Webb, Haren, Voloquez, Sheets, and Peavy over Santana without thinking twice. Remember, Santana didn’t have a typical Santana second half last year either. There were talks about his dip in velocity. He’s under fire on NY radio for not taking accountabilty for losses or mistakes as well. The guy is still very good the ERA doesn’t lie there. But he hasn’t pitched into the 8th this year. And if you take the second half of last season, and the first of this year it’s very difficult to automatically give him the mantle of best pitcher in the NL, or even top 5. It’s definitely up for discussion.
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:22 pm
True… he made Matt Cain become available. Linceum lost to Hamels when we were out there thought didn’t he, or an I making things up?
Volquez is nasty, lets see him keep his control for an entire season though..
There are obviously guys that I forgot, but I got pissed yesterday when people were saying that Hamels isn’t a legit ACE.. because he is… there are pitchers better than him, but not everyone can have THE best pitcher in baseball…whoever that may be.
Like Cliff Lee is putting up great numbers… but I can think of a lot of guys id rather have
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:24 pm
The Hamels Lincecum matchup was a Sunday in Philly. It didn’t live up to expectations and I thought both got a no decision.
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:25 pm
Its alot like in 2004 when Randy Johnson was 16 – 14, becasue he was on a bad team getting no runs. He had an ERA of 2.60, struck out 290 in 245.67 IP he only gave up 177 Hits and walked 45.
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:26 pm
It goes Lincecum and Lee as my midseason Cy Youngs.
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:26 pm
I hear ya Scot, we’ll just agree to disagree. The idea that someone would take 5 NL pitchers over Santana is bewildering to me, but everyone is entitled to their opinion.
Hopefully the Phils will bomb Santana on Friday and then I’ll send you a mia culpa!
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:28 pm
Interesting thought: If the Giants offered Zito and his contract and Lincecum to another team for free, would anyone take it? Zito still has 5 years left on that contract. I’m guessing the yanks and red sox would be able to do it, but no one else. That’s how bad that Zito contract is.
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:29 pm
Hes an ace on our team and on most NL teams. All I said was there are some AL teams where hed probably be the number 2 guy. Several in fact.
BOS, LAA, OAK, CLE, maybe, maybe NYY, maybe CHW, maybe DET, TB, TOR
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:29 pm
Griffin, I fully expect Santana to throw seven shutout innings Friday now that I’ve opened my mouth. He’s do for a win. But, I hope I’m wrong!
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:30 pm
My comment was in reference to Santana not being an Ace pitcher and everything and showing you how much the W/L is a team stat, because Johnson was losing games where he would go 8 IP give up one 1 or go 8IP and give up none and get a No Decicion
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Santana isn’t the Santana of 3 years ago… but he’s still VERY VERY VERY close to, if not the best pitcher in the NL.
Its a shame for the Muts that they’ll have to keep eating his salary 5 years from now.. which is why the Sillies dont go after pitchers long-term.
If they are all healthy, and they all get 4 runs from their offense…
Santana, Webb, Peavey, Lincecum, Haren, are all great. with Johan and Jake probably getting the nod from me… one game to win, I’d take one of them over the others
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:34 pm
yeah, I don’t have a good feeling about Friday’s game. Let’s hope the Mets offense stinks and we win a low scoring game.
Geoff, I would take Hamels over your three maybes (wang, vasquez, verlander) and Harden is a tough call b/c he’s so injury prone, but you’re right about all the others. Hamels is still a top 15 and maybe, maybe a top 10 starter right now.
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:35 pm
I would take hamels over Wang/Joba (now), Vasquez, and Verlander (now) as well but those three are debateable so i thought id throw them out there for discussion.
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:37 pm
True, I forgot about Joba. He’s gonna be real good. Good call.
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:41 pm
I think hes a tad overhyped but he does remind me of roger clemens, especially because he looks like him. hell be solid all star though in the future
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:42 pm
yeah, i’m already sick of him. He’s already the 2nd most popular yankee (jeter) and you see people all over NYC wearing Joba jerseys even before he was in the rotation. It’s a bit much.
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:44 pm
Guys I would take over Hamels:
Johan Santana
CC Sabathia
Josh Beckett
Roy Halladay
Dan Haren
Brandon Webb
Felix Hernandex
Carlos Zambrano
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Jake Peavy
… In no order.
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:46 pm
I would not take Felix Hernandez or Dice K over Hamels… Zambrano is nasty, but he’s hurt all the time too, which im guessing is why Harden was not on your list.
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:50 pm
I’d put Lincecum in there and take out Dice-K.
Also, I’d put in Lackey.
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:52 pm
I’m going to add to TJ’s list and say Tim Lincecum, a healthy Rich Harden, Scott Kazmir, Edison Volquez, a healthy Ben Sheets, and John Lackey. There were a few I considered but won’t take because of their age or the fact they’re having career years. I’d take Dice-K and Big Z off of your list though TJ. I’d take Hamels over them. I don’t know that I’d take Johan Santana over him either just because they’re clones of eachother and Hamels is 5 years younger.
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:52 pm
and Kazmir
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:54 pm
Sheets and Harden are question marks b/c of health. Then again, Hamels hasn’t pitched a complete year in the majors yet…
July 3rd, 2008 at 4:39 pm
The list was health issues aside, I wouldn’t take Lackey over him nor Volquez. Big Z definitely over Hamels and Hernandez is a monster power pitcher. Lincecum, I dont know. Maybe. Hamels gets my biased nod over Kazmir.
July 3rd, 2008 at 4:40 pm
feliz is definitely a beast man. he hit a GS in interleague play, that was awesome.
lincecum is the best pitcher in the NL by far in terms of talent. hes has ill-ass stuff
July 3rd, 2008 at 4:41 pm
woops. i meant king felix
July 3rd, 2008 at 4:47 pm
Geoff, you’re wrong. Lincecum isn’t the best pitcher in the NL…he’s the best pitcher in baseball. He has the best stuff overall and the best mechanics. I wonder if he’ll get hurt with those mechanics on that fragile little body?
July 3rd, 2008 at 4:48 pm
Felix…
compare his career numbers to Hamels, and tell me you think his better… There is a comparison to be made, and you really couldn’t go wrong with either one.. but Hamels has better career numbers almost all across the board.
July 3rd, 2008 at 4:50 pm
Yeah, it’s cause Felix came up too early.
July 3rd, 2008 at 4:55 pm
that does blow my mind that he’s only 22 years old.. but would you take him over Hamels??
July 3rd, 2008 at 4:58 pm
i think theyre very similar, but lincecum throws heat at like 97 regularly. its a tough call but i think id rather have lincecum assuming he can have a healthy and safe career.
about that, have you seen how jacked he is? for a little guy hes ripped.
July 3rd, 2008 at 4:58 pm
Should the Phillies AWAY jerseys say Philadelphia across the front, instead of “Phillies” ??
Just looked up Felix again.. his pictures from the road.. they say SEATTLE and it looks cool to have your city on the away and your name on the home jersey.. i think
July 3rd, 2008 at 5:00 pm
yea I could see Lincecum over Hamels.. but what about Hernandez.. thats who I thought you guys kep talking about.
July 3rd, 2008 at 5:02 pm
I would give up whatever it took to trade for Lincecum and I think the Giants would trade him. I especially think they’d take Howard. I can’t even being to explain how incredible it would be to have a Lincecum/Hamels 1-2 punch. Howard would look good in a Giants uniform and would have fun blasting homers into the bay. Him and Rowand can sit around and reminisce about their time with Philly and the Giants fans will cheer Howard on like they did that tool Bonds.
July 3rd, 2008 at 5:04 pm
No chance in hell you can get anything close to Tin Lincecum for RYAN HOWARD !!!
he’s hitting .220… and a team that is struggling, like the Giants, their best chance is to keep all the young pitching they can get, not trade it for a Slugger/Strikeout
July 3rd, 2008 at 5:05 pm
They like sluggers in SF. Howard and Donald for Lincecum. They need a replacement for Vizquel anyway.
July 3rd, 2008 at 5:07 pm
If you were the Giants, would you do that???
July 3rd, 2008 at 5:09 pm
Yeah, they want a slugger like Howard and they’ve been saying in SF they’re worried the little guy is going to break down because of his size and mechanics. I personally don’t think he will, but I do think he’ll have to become a closer by the time he’s 30 because of his mechanics.
July 3rd, 2008 at 5:18 pm
wouldn’t the Phillies have already done this deal then????
he’s 24 now, so they have some time to wait…. this again, is called DREAMING.. its not going o happen
July 3rd, 2008 at 5:22 pm
I doubt that the Phillies would ever trade Howard. They look at him as a god here. Only hardcore fans like us realize how expendable he is.
November 12th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
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