In Eighth, Go With Romero
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Fri, September 05, 2008 02:24 PM
Lately the Phillies have stumbled in the eighth inning, causing a few losses that could be the difference in the NL East race.
As the Phils get set for the final run, the eighth inning will be of the greatest importance. And currently, the man who should take it? JC Romero.
In the eighth inning, Romero has limited hitters to a .219 average. Hitters do have a 111 OPS+ against Romero in the eighth, but looking at the other options, it’s the best of the bunch.
Ryan Madson, for some reason, shrivels in the eighth. A dynamite seventh-inning guy (.208 BAA), he is horrendous in the eighth (.309 BAA,130 OPS+). And in late and close situations, how about a .306 average? He does get better with more men on base, which makes him the best “situational” righty option.
Chad Durbin has struggled lately, and mainly because he’s not so hot in “situations.” With two outs, hitters are .308 against him. With two outs, it’s .234. With no outs? .195. Interesting, huh? He’s better starting out an inning, making him much more suited for the sixth (.175 BAA) and seventh (.231 BAA) frames. In the eighth inning, hitters are .316 against him with a 145 OPS+.
As much as we hate saying Romero can only beat lefties, he has proven to get big outs time in and out, and against both lefties and righties. Scott Eyre makes sense against lefties in situations, just as Madson makes sense against righties in situations.
With a little more than 20 games remaining, the Phils need to cement this eighth-inning problem. Romero needs to be the guy — night in and out — to get the ball in the eighth. That’s why the Phillies paid him $12MM. Give him the damn ball.
12 Responses to “In Eighth, Go With Romero”
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September 5th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
I said earlier (Cubs series I think) that Romero should be the set-up man. I still think he should, but I wouldn’t mind having Eyre as the set-up man. He is doing amazing, let the hot hand pitch. Either way, Madson should be the 7th inning guy and Durbin should go back to his multiple inning role (5th-7th innings, depending on the situation).
September 5th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
Bullpen roles are not as cut and dry as you make them sound, Tim. For instance, just because Romero has the better opponents’ batting average in the 8th inning over Ryan Madson does not automatically make him the clear cut choice to start the 8th if the Phils are facing Easley, Wright, and Tatis in the Mets’ lineup, nor does it make him the right reliever to go to if Myers loads the bases with 2 out and Wright coming to the plate. I think instead of focusing on opponents’ batting averages broken down between innings, Charlie Manuel needs to look at lefty-on-lefty/righty-on-righty matchups and favorable historical matchups. For example, if Carlos Beltran (switch-hitter) is up in the 8th and he is (hypothetically) 8 for 10 in his career against Romero, but 1 for 9 against Madson, the correct reliever to bring it would be Madson. From an observer’s standpoint, nothing changes to make relievers better or worse from inning to inning. What changes is the batters they face and the matchups they’re presented.
September 5th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
truth: You’re right in that situations present different options. But more often we’ve seen Charlie go with Romero for an out or two in the seventh, then wasting another righty, only to be backed in a hole in the eighth, starting the inning with a Madson or Durbin, when maybe the matchups might not be favorable.
And the splits show that the eighth inning has been a problem for certain pitchers. Really, doesn’t it strike you as weird that Madson has so much of a better 6th, 7th and 9th inning?
Sometimes a bullpen needs to be a little cut and dry. Sometimes guys need roles. When the bullpen was at its best, you knew Romero was getting lefties, Durbin was getting righties, then Gordon in the 8th, Lidge in the 9th. If you have three guys who are 1-for-10 against Madson lined up for the 8th, maybe you play that percentage, but more often, Romero needs to be in there. He’s proven worthy of the clutch situation.
September 5th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
That’s why the Phillies paid him $12MM. Give him the damn ball.*
September 5th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Tim, I agree with Durbin in multiple innings and Madson for the 7th, but I think Eyre has to be the set-up guy. His splits are much better against righties and he is basically the same as Romero vs. Lefties. Make Romero the LOOGY.
This is a huge weekend. Take at least 2 and we are feeling pretty good on Monday AM. Sweep and things get real interesting. Either way, don’t forget about the Brewers series next weekend (I think we miss Sabathia too). They are reeling and the wild card is very much a possibility too.
September 5th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
I agree, Tim. I pretty much thought the reason the Phils got Scott Eyre was to use him vs. tough lefties prior to the 8th inning, allowing them to hold on to Romero until the game is more on the line. Still, I think Madson’s poor 8th innings are more a testament to force-feeding him to bad matchups then some cosmic force that isn’t allowing him to succeed as a set-up man. If a bunch of righties are stacked up in the 8th inning, there should be no hesitation to bring in Madson.
September 5th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
I can agree on Eyre, but Romero has proven himself worthy. He’s really the best setup man this team has had in some time.
Thanks nick, that’s a typo.
September 5th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
Romero is a nice choice, as long as he can find the strike zone. Romero should have been the setup guy since last year, but for some reason, Chalie has always decided to go with the likes of Gordon, Madson and so on.
September 5th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Truth, I am not so sure always going with righty vs righty or lefty vs lefty match-up is always the best way to go. The other night in Washington is a perfect example. In the 7th, Eyre comes in and gets the first two switch hitters easily. Then Zimmerman comes up and Cholly waddles out to bring in Durbin for the R vs. R. Next thing you know the ball is deposited into deep centerfield where the grounds crew keep the tractors. Why not stick with Eyre?? He was in a groove. His stuff looks pretty nasty right now to me against right or left. Stay with the hot hand instead of always playing the percentages.
September 5th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
Buffalo: matchups should always be dictated by proper discretion. I’m sure at the time when Durbin came in to face Zimmerman there wasn’t 1 Phillie fan who thought Eyre gave them a better chance to record the out over Durbin. But there are always more factors at work, and just because Durbin gave the Phils’ a righty-on-righty matchup doesn’t mean it’s an automatic advantage for the Phils. If Zimmerman had awesome career numbers against Durbin, or if Durbin had been working for a 4th straight day, or if Eyre had gotten Zimmerman and a whole bunch of other righties out prior to the switch, then obviously it’s a horrible move. But more times than not righty-on-righty and lefty-on-lefty matchups will favor the pitcher. There’s a reason why ROOGY’s and LOOGY’s were invented. But managers have to do it in the right situation with the right personnel, and that’s not always a black and white issue.
September 5th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
TADITHITO IGUCHI JUST SIGNED WITH THE PHILS
September 5th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
World Series, here come the Phillies!