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NLCS Preview Part VII : Prediction
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Thu, October 09, 2008 02:00 PM
2008 National League Championship Series Preview
Part VII : Prediction
I wrestled with a prediction for this series because, as we all know, it’s way too tight to call clearly. But predictions are predictions for a reason.
When the Dodgers took out the Cubs, and the Phillies were still hoping to win game four, I thought, “the Dodgers are the National League champions.” When the Phillies took out the Brewers 18 hours later, I thought, “the Phillies can beat the Dodgers, but it won’t be easy.” After a day of mild celebration and heavy rest, I thought, “the Phillies will win this series.” Sometimes you need clarity.
Okay, I won’t be surprised at all if the Dodgers win. In four, even. While these teams are extremely even, we’ve seen the Phils bats go cold, we’ve seen pitching evaporate (though not much). And the Dodgers could be guilty of the same exact things. We saw that when they came to Philadelphia (their situational hitting was horrendous). At that time, most of us fans and critics thought the Dodgers were cooked. How wrong we were. (Remember how we thought the Phils were cooked? Exactly.)
Anyway, game two is the key to the series. I expect Cole Hamels to pitch well, and for Derek Lowe to match him until the end. It’ll take a key hit or two sometime around the sixth or seventh to overcome Lowe, and if it happens, the Phils win the game. If not, we’re looking at a long, tedious, late night, and advantage Los Angeles.
Whatever happens in game one, Brett Myers must be focused in game two. If he comes out firing and puts down at least six innings of solid pitching, the Phillies win. I feel confident the offense will get a couple runs off Chad Billingsley; it’s Myers that makes me most nervous. Still, in such a pressure situation in front of practically the whole world, I see him thriving. More on that later.
When the series turns to Los Angeles, the Phils will have to play small ball. I don’t see them doing that against game three starter Hiroki Kuroda. Jamie Moyer, while turning in a better performance than in Milwaukee, won’t be able to match. Ryan Howard and Chase Utley will come up short against Kuroda, and of all games, I see this one as the most likely loss.
I see the Phils winning one game out in Los Angeles. It might be four or five, depending more on which game Lowe doesn’t start. The other start will be by either Clayton Kershaw or Billingsley, guys the Phillies know they can hit. In that one win, look for team leader Jimmy Rollins to come up huge with a triple, or something of that ilk. He’s destined to come alive in this set. So, if my prediction is right, the Phils will hold a 3-2 lead coming back home.
That’s when Myers hits the hill again. I don’t know why, but I see him carving his place in history in a clinching game. Maybe it’s the Curt Schilling in him. Maybe it’s a drunkenness in me. Whatever the case, after wrestling with the prediction for some time, I see the Phils winning 4-2, with Myers as the winning pitcher in game six, Lidge closing it out.
Winner: Phillies, 4-2.
So that’s the pick. Sure every expert is touting the Dodgers and giving them the six- or seven-game win. That’s fine. I’m a Phillie fan. I know what I’ve seen. And I’ve been stuck on “Phillies in six” for three days. I’m pretty confident in the prediction — I don’t know why, I just am. Of course, of course, of course, I can see the Dodgers winning too. I can see Manny getting a heroes welcome in his Dodger grays while the camera pans deep and Joe Buck takes a moment. I can almost see that too clearly. But then I see Howard, lining up a swing with that short green backstop behind him, those jeering red-clad fans mouthing off. And that’s just as clear.
October 9th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
I 100% completely agree with your prediction. Phils in 6, no doubt. GO PHILS!!!!
October 9th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
Leaving for class, then the game. I’m in section 114! Look for me and my sign, Unphinished Business.
GO PHILLIES!
October 9th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
lucky, lucky bastard.
October 9th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
this has been the longest week ever! I can’t wait to listen to these pundits tell us how we got lucky to beat the dodgers!
October 9th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
I’m jealous Dan. GO PHILS!
October 9th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
Agree completely. Def gonna be us in SIX.
And, don’t lump all of us together saying we thought the Phillies were cooked. I certainly never counted them out. We are going all the way this year. There’s something different about this team. I sense they want it as bad as we do.
October 9th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
As a Dodger fan, I’m picking the Phillies in 7 games. But that’s partially because I’m superstitious.
Whatever happens, I do hope it’s a good series. And think it will be. Less than 6 games will surprise me. Though as Tim writes above, a sweep in either direction wouldn’t be a complete shocker either. But 6 or 7 games, advantage Phillies. But I hope I’m wrong. 
Buena suerte.
October 9th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Craig P I’m the exact opposite as you. As a Phillies fan I’m picking the Dodgers in 6. I really hope I’m wrong, but I just think the Dodgers experience will trump the Phillies as a slightly superior team on paper.
October 9th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
I’m from Philly and I just got this cool tee shirt at;
phightinallfall.com
Check it out
October 9th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
the national media being all over the dodger’s and manny’s balls is really getting to me. it’s all manny all the time. they almost completely fail to mention that the best power hitter in the game by far is playing for the other team.
October 9th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
There is no one on the Phillies that can even be mentioned in the same sentence as Manny Ramirez in terms of offense (RyHo will go down swinging just as often as he’ll clobber one out of the park and Chase hasn’t looked right since the ASB) but yea, enough with the Dodger love. They only win 83 games during the regular season but they win 3 in the playoffs and all of the sudden everything’s supposed to be fixed? At least when the Cardinals won the WS after winning 83 games they were the underdogs in the NLCS and the WS.
October 9th, 2008 at 4:02 pm
Chase Mutley Do you think the red sox will win it all?
October 9th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
http://theblogofchampions.com/2008/10/09/breakin-down-the-nlcs/
October 9th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
I think Phillies in 6 is very doable. But I am sticking with my initial pick of Phillies in 7.
October 9th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
Bias prediction.
October 9th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
I stopped reading that Blog of Champions NLCS breakdown when he wrote that Hamels, Myers and Blanton are our top 3, forgetting about Moyer.
October 9th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
Tonight’s lineup is
Rollins
Victorino
Utley
Howard
Burrell
Werth
Feliz
Ruiz
Hamels
October 9th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
The thing is, it’s less Dodger love than it is Manny love (except for Tim McClueless), which is annoying to the rest of the Dodgers who think they’re not completely anonymous muckups either. I get tired of it too. But whatever, pundits have to have something to talk about. If it wasn’t for Manny and Torre the East coast would have no awareness of the Dodgers, and even with them they barely acknowledged them before and even during the Cubs series. Now all of a sudden they’re a hot ticket, but it’s all a lot of blather anyway. Both teams have plenty of reasons to be motivated for this one.
October 9th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
Feel very confident about my teams chances….can’t wait until tonight…Let the games begin…Go Dodgers
October 9th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
Of course the Phillies will win.
The Dodgers played .500 ball for the vast majority of the season. They won a very mediocre league.
October 9th, 2008 at 5:50 pm
Ok I’m gonna jump out way ahead of everyone… Even tho I am a ex-baseball player and think everything baseball I DO NOT believe in Jinxes. I am booking a hotel in Philly for when the Parade goes through the city. I am hoping the Nation will be well represented at that glorious event. What do ya think Tim!
October 9th, 2008 at 5:55 pm
Bonezy I’d be concerned about the Phillies beating the AL.
October 9th, 2008 at 7:23 pm
I actually think they can take it in 5. The Phils’ pitching is really getting overlooked. The Dodgers are getting credit, bit their division contains the worst hitting teams in baseball, and their road ERA is much higher than their home ERA. Also, I haven’t heard anybody mention that the Phils are the best road team in the NL and the best one left in the playoffs, so going out to LA really shouldn’t be a problem. The game Kuroad starts will be the only game I don’t see them winning in this series.
October 9th, 2008 at 7:28 pm
Thanks for the great analysis these past few days. Can’t wait to see your seven part series on the WORLD SERIES match-up!!!
Go Phils!
October 9th, 2008 at 7:49 pm
Phillies in 6 seems to be the consensus among the Philly bloggers.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:53 am
Phillies in 6 seems to be a pretty common prediction. I agree, Phils in 6, but it would not surprise me if the Phils win in 4 or 5 with every game being as close as the game last night.