Keys To Defeating James Shields

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Thu, October 23, 2008 01:43 PM

Tonight the Phillies offense faces James Shields. The 26-year-old right-hander went 14-8 with a 3.56 ERA in his best season yet. Throwing 215 innings, he struck out 160 and walked 40.

Shields has superb control, and won’t walk hitters at all. He checks in with a 90 mph fastball, a low-80s two-seam fastball, a changeup that has the same speed and an average curveball. He doesn’t carry prominent breaking stuff, so he relies on the variation and movement of his two fastballs to carry him.

Let’s look at his three worst starts this season:

May 3 at Boston: 3.2 IP, 10 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
He threw just 55 strikes of his 98 pitches, and the three walks in that short time shows bad control. The Sox jumped on him extremely early, with four straight hits to open, to score three runs. The Sox’ top-two left-handed hitters (Jacoby Ellsbury and David Ortiz) were 4-for-4 in plate appearances against Shields.

June 5 at Boston: 1 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, HBP
Again, the Sox jumped on him early. This time Dustin Pedroia was hit by a pitch, then JD Drew doubled, setting up a three-run homer for Manny Ramirez. In the second, he hit Coco Crisp, taking him out of the game.

Sept. 18 vs. Minnesota: 6.1 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
His worst home start, again, he was hit in the first. The Twins tried small ball to get the run home, but with two on and two out, Jason Kubel hit a home run. In the third, a pair of singles got a run home, thanks to some errors. And in the seventh, a leadoff single and some small ball led to a two-run Joe Mauer single.

A few trends you can take out of this:

  • Leadoff hitters have to get on. When Shields is at his worst, he’s got a guy on base and nobody out. All three of these starts proved that.
  • Home runs are not the necessity. Singles kill Shields more than anything, so find a hole and get at it. The homer will come naturally.
  • Jump on him early. Shields won’t give up too much in the first inning, but if you can get a run or two off him then, you’ll be much better off. Moreover, he’s worst in the second inning (.848 opponents OPS).

It’s very crucial Jimmy Rollins has a nice game tonight, especially in that very first at bat. I’d think hard about popping Shane Victorino back into the two-hole, if I was Charlie Manuel. Anything to get Shields early.

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29 Responses to “Keys To Defeating James Shields”

  1. Dennis Says:

    Can someone explain to me how this guy became James “Big Game” Shields? Lets hit him early and often tonight boys!!!

  2. Chutley Says:

    I think we’re gonna match up well with six lefties in the lineup. And look for Howard to finally go yard since Shileds doesn’t have great breaking stuff. ANd i agree Tim, i think jimmy will have to do better than his 0 fer last night.

  3. Manny Says:

    The more I learn about this guy, the more I think a guy like Dobbs will be crucial (a lefty getting hits –not homers) to win tonight. Pedro can get his one or two singles and is an asset on defense. So leave Pedro, let Dobbs DH. Will he be 7th in the lineup?

  4. Tim Malcolm Says:

    Wouldn’t mind seeing a lineup of Rollins/Victorino/Utley/Howard/Burrell/Dobbs/Werth/Feliz/Ruiz tonight. .

  5. MP Says:

    Completely agree, Tim. Moving Victorino up in the lineup is a smart move after Jimmy’s poor showing at the plate last night. Shane can be a bit of a spark plug for this team too.

  6. Chuck Says:

    Vic HAS to be in the 2 hole.

  7. Andrew Says:

    What do you say we have Brett Myers go out and swing the bat for us?

  8. Don M Says:

    Brett Myers swings a bat like old people Fcuk. . . Slow, and Sloppy… and he sometimes gets lucky.

  9. Mike S. Says:

    It’s better Brett doesn’t have to swing tonight, he won’t tire himself out running the bases.

    After winning game 1, ALL the pressure is off Brett now. He can just go out and pitch his game. TRUST YOUR FASTBALL BRETT.

    I think Jimmy will be okay tonight, he swings better from the left side..

    Ryan needs to be patient and hit the ball the other way, because until he shows the Rays he can hit the ball, Chase isn’t going to see anything to hit

  10. Tom Says:

    Overall, great analysis…I would consider a huge switch up…Dobbs and his bat control at the #2 spot instead of the Fly’n Hawaiian. Leaving the free swinging mighty midget at 6 and have Dobbs bat in the two hole…perhaps increasing the odds that Utley and Howard will be hitting with a runner on base, while Jimmy has been struggling at the plate.
    Living in Tampa, I can tell you, Shields is vulnerable early. Should he get through the first, having Werth as our second clean up hitter at 7 is key…
    Brett needs to keep his curve low in the zone as with his fastball, particularly against Upton and Longoria…Myers may give up two or three, just as long as they are solos…we’ll win

  11. Don M Says:

    I like the agressiveness and bat control of Dobbs in the #2 hole.. but late in the game when they bring in LHP, that would really shut the hear of our order down.. BUT… maybe with Dobbs up there early, you jump out to a big lead???

  12. Phil Says:

    I like the idea of Dobbs in the 2 hole also. It would put a ton of strength in the bottom of our line up.

    Rollins
    Dobbs
    Utley
    Howard
    Burrell
    Victorino
    Werth
    Stairs
    Ruiz

    I like that a lot.

    I know it’s early to be talking about this and that I should be focused on the WS, but I have been reading a lot on mlbtraderumors.com that the Phillies are pursuing Manny. Do you guys think this is a good or bad idea? I think we should. Anything we can do to make sure the Mets don’t get him is a good idea imo. If they give him 5 years Manny can be moved to 1B after Howard leaves.

  13. Manny Says:

    Phil, I hate Manny Ramirez. I would really hate seeing him in a Phillies uniform. Ugh
    We don’t need “stars,” we need team players

  14. Phil Says:

    I agree with you, but I think Charlie can calm him down. He likes Charlie and he might play for Charlie.

  15. Chutley Says:

    Don, if they brought in the lefty we would always have feliz on the bench. STAY AWAY FROM MANNY and invest in more starting pitchers. You just saw what Cole did last night why not go after Peavy

  16. Phil Says:

    I wouldn’t wanna give up the farm for Peavy. He pitches in a paradise stadium. He’d get lit up in CBP.

  17. Don M Says:

    I was counting on them DH-ing Dobbs.. so Feliz would already be in the game.

    If they got just stacked with LH, then i agree that Dobbs in the #2 is probably the way to go..

    Rollins, Dobbs, Utley, Howard, Burrell, Werth, Victorino (or Werth here, Vic #5) Stairs, Ruiz..

    Or

    Rollins, Werth, Utley, Howard, Burrell, Victorino, Dobbs (DH), Feliz, Ruiz

    Christ… I’m sorry for yapping and posting to much.. I’m just so FREAKIN pumped about this!!!!

  18. PEACh Says:

    Maybe not Peavy but i definetly think we should get more starting pitching. Cole dominated last night. Pitching wins games.

  19. RK Says:

    Check this out if you have not already read it, it is a Mets site turned into a Rays site because as the author so eloquently puts it. …because the Mets suck.

    http://www.metsgeek.com/articles/2008/10/22/meet-the-rays/

  20. Chuck Says:

    Don, relax. Don’t worry. Your insight is great with all the facts, stats and possibilities you present. I don’t know…..I was hoping for Vic in the 2 spot but now maybe Dobbs is it. It would be nice to have Feliz in early but with Myers maybe not as critical.

    My vote on Manny: only (and I mean only) if Charlie is here to deal with him. Give Charlie an extension and give Manny 3 yrs tops and maybe it’s good. I don’t HATE the guy and actually think he’s a good player. He won’t kill you defensively and who’s really better at the plate?

  21. Chuck Says:

    meant to say good TEAM player. Yeah, I know you all might think I’m nuts but Manny is not the worst headcase to ever wear the uniform…..and I do think he is ok in the clubhouse. He just ran out of time in Boston. That’s why 3 yrs tops.

  22. RK Says:

    *****This Post is not intended for sympathy, or sadness******

    Just wanted the Nation to know there is another die hard, lifetime Phil’s fan watching over the squad with June Manuel and Vic’s grandmom. My Grandfather Dave Kelley who grew up in the Northeast, and has been a Phil’s Fan longer then we could even think of and has been sick for some time now, peacefully drifted off for the last time last night after the Phils got the 2 run lead (and before he had to witness Howards awful night).
    I feel he was just hanging on to see his beloved Phil’s begin the World Series.

    I could hear him now about Howard’s lack of production and fielding as he has always been a stickler for the fundamentals of baseball. However I am sure Howard will bounce back tonight.

    I just wanted to put this post in honor of him, and to let Phillies Nation know we have another PHAN looking over us.

  23. dan Says:

    How much would Manny cost though? He’s not for us. The way we’ve been doing things lately is obviously working and that means drafting and trading well and having a well-stocked farm. Homegrown talent is the way to go. Utley, Hamels, Rollins, Burrell, Howard. I think that says enough. Make the acquistions where they are needed (Lidge) and surround the core with good role players (Vic, Werth, Dobbs). The Rays did the same thing and here we both are. Put the Manny conversation to rest.

  24. mikemike Says:

    sorry for your loss.

  25. Chris.I Says:

    Marl T made a strong statement in a previous thread about putting Howard in at DH, and Dobbs at first, that way Feliz could be in the game for defense…I think he might be on to something here fellas. I know it wont happen, but hot damn thats genius.

  26. Matt Kwasiborski Says:

    Can we just focus on the next game and worry about the offseason when it happens? I know we aren’t used to this but we need to get another win down there.

    I thought Vic would be in the #2 hole but having him at six gives us another pseudo leadoff hitter down there. I think he leadoff two innings last night and got on base. The lineup worked last night outside of getting runs home. So, let’s leave it as is. And you bench Howard, you kill any chance of him being productive the rest of the series. While he can make a few errors here and there, he didn’t kill us last night. I just think if he is just the DH- it will show Manuel has no confidence in him and that will kill him.

  27. LH Says:

    I like the lineup Tim, and nice final score guess from last night. Charlie should remind Rollins and Howard to slow down their at-bats. Take a time out and step out of the batter’s box. I like seeing a fast ball pitcher like Shields tonight, even if can throw a corkscrew. The offense has to parlay their winning hits to string our runners all the way around the bases tonight. Myers is an enigma. We’ll watch the first two innings like usual and pray for his best stuff. Get stronger Brett after each inning. Gosh, World Series game 2 and we get to watch out Phillies play in it. It gets even better saying it out loud.

  28. mikemike Says:

    Howard and these slumps are crazy. When in a slump drop a bunt just to get on.I don’t know how many of the people on this site remember Richie Hebner, They tried to do a shift on him he laid down 4 bunts for hits in one game. Howard should do whatever it takes to try to change his approach and just try and get on. it usually will open up other things if he does.

  29. mikemike Says:

    A little off the subject. I was reading a houston paper and it’ said that the G.M. were mad at wade. According to the reporter Lidge was traded without a lot of G.M. knowing he was on the block, kind of interesting. The writer suggest that Eddie was in love with Bourn a houston born player and didn’t give others a chance to bid.

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