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NLCS Preview Part IV : The Pen’s The Thing
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Wed, October 08, 2008 02:00 PM
2008 National League Championship Series Preview
Part IV : The Pen’s The Thing
Probable Bullpen
Chan Ho Park - 4-4 / 3.40 ERA / 79 K / 36 BB
James McDonald - 0-0 / 0.00 ERA / 2 K / 0 BB
Greg Maddux - 8-13 / 4.22 ERA / 98 K / 30 BB
Cory Wade - 2-1 / 2.27 ERA / 51 K / 15 BB
Takashi Saito - 4-4 / 2.49 ERA / 60 K / 16 BB
Joe Beimel - 5-1 / 2.02 ERA / 32 K / 21 BB
Jonathan Broxton - 3-5 / 3.13 ERA / 88 K / 27 BB
About
This is a very good bullpen, statistically. Unlike the Phillies, however, the Dodgers don’t have very clear, defined roles in their pen. What we know is Broxton will likely close games, and Saito has experience in that arena, but has struggled after an injury. We know Beimel is the only lefty in the bullpen. We know Wade is a pretty good setup man who has come into his own in his first season. And we know Maddux will be used maybe in a middle-relief role in the series.
So we know things, but we don’t know concrete plans. Whereas with the Phils, we know Durbin and Eyre go earlier, Madson and Romero go later, Lidge goes latest, and Condrey and Happ are in when absolutely necessary. And boom goes the dynamite.
All Roads To Broxton
Jonny “I don’t want. Your life” Brox. The 24-year-old throws strikes, and has pretty devastating stuff, but he is hittable. Take Shane Victorino, who is 3-for-5 lifetime against Broxton. Jimmy Rollins has walked twice and hit once in six plate appearances. The main losers against Brox? Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, Pedro Feliz (3 K) and Pat Burrell (2 K). That makes sense — Broxton beats guys who look fastball first, home run most. Having Chase Utley (2-for-4, 2B) or Victorino up against Broxton is the best thing possible.
Getting to him, the Phils will mostly encounter Wade and Beimel. The former has never faced the Phillies, but will strike out a ton of batters. He’ll be the X-factor for the Dodgers bullpen — the guy who can effectively bridge the starters to Broxton. The latter, Beimel, is a left-handed specialist who has weird splits against lefties. While lefties hit Beimel better than righties (.278 to .263), they’re slugging worse (.311 to .337). What matters is how Beimel has done against the Phils top lefties: Howard (0-for-3, 3 BB); Utley (2-for-7, 2B); Jenkins (4-for-11, 2 BB); Stairs (1-for-4, 2B). Dobbs has no appearances against him. Phils righties have hit him well, so Charlie Manuel might think about breaking Utley and Howard to keep Beimel almost invisible.
Saito On It
Takashi Saito has been an interesting case. Once a drop-dead top closer, he lost his spot with an injury, and has not clearly found a true role since. He might see the end of a game against the Phils, or he might see time earlier. Whatever the case, he hasn’t faced Phillie hitters too much, keeping them hitless almost across the board. The only exception: Stairs, who is 1-for-1 with a home run.
When Saito gets hit, it’s by lefties, and it’s by pulling the ball. Saito might not give Utley, Howard, Dobbs, Jenkins and Stairs pitches to hit, but if he misses, they have to be on it.
The Experience Factor
At the front of the bullpen are three pitchers with varying experience. With the least — just four appearances — is James McDonald, who will see a game if necessary. With the most experience are two established veterans — one with a nice history, one with an amazing history.
Chan Ho Park has been around for some time, but should merely get mop-up duty. He has been used in a solid sixth/seventh-inning role previously, but has been pretty bad lately, and especially on the road (4.50 ERA compared to 2.18 at home). If he enters a game at the Bank, Joe Torre is having a problem.
Then there’s Greg Maddux, maybe the greatest pitcher of our time. Coming over from San Diego, Maddux started as the Dodgers’ No. 5 toward the end of the season. Now he’ll be used in a middle relief role. He’s very good when he sees hitters for the first time in a game (.250 AVG compared to .317 the third time around), so he could be extremely effective in middle relief. Big hitters Burrell, Howard, Jenkins and Feliz have the best track records against Maddux. An interesting contrast to Broxton.
Final Word
This Dodgers bullpen looks tough at first glimpse, but the Phils can match up well against them if they play their cards correctly. Beimel doesn’t have a nice history outside of Howard, so breaking up the big bats might take Beimel out of the picture. While Saito hasn’t seen much of the Phillies, the big lefty bats can hit him. They might not hit Broxton, but there’s a gameplan against him, too. The wild card is Wade. If he’s throwing darts and fooling Phillie hitters, the good guys will be in trouble.
Say the Dodgers starters get through six innings with leads. The Phils will likely have one good chance to beat them after that, and it would probably be the last at bats. If Saito comes in with Rollins-Victorino-Utley coming up, it might be tough. And if Broxton comes in with Howard-Burrell-Werth coming up, it might be tougher. Then again, if Saito comes in with Howard-Burrell-Werth coming up … well, you get my drift. Matchups are extremely important in this series.
Against the Brewers, the Phillies had to get their runs off the starters. They did. It turned out the Milwaukee bullpen performed very well. Now, the Phillies might have to get a couple runs off the Los Angeles bullpen, and it’s not out of the question that they will. These guys are much more hittable than you think, but if the Phils run into the wrong matchup, it will prove futile. Charlie Manuel will be more important than ever.
October 8th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
Kuo, the Dodgers other lefty in the pen, may be healthy enough to play. Rosters come out tomorrow at 10 AM so we’ll see what happens.
October 8th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
I know this is totally off topic, but does anyone know how much the tickets inflate to for the playoffs? I have someone offering me 2 section 110 tickets at $130 a piece and he claims they are face value after surcharges and stuff.
October 8th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
Section 112 was $70 face.. $73 after charges for game #2 last series..
I’m pretty sure that the $130 is accurate.. and then WS tickets will go up to like $300 or something..
I would jump up it if you can afford it
October 8th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Thanks Don M. I might.
October 8th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
I had a group go down early in the season.. 100 tickets… so they mailed me an option to purchase postseason tickets in advance.. and if they didn’t make it, they would go towards season tickets for 2009.
Only I bought a house in March, and that letter got sent to my parents house because that was my billing address for my credit card… so I didn’t get the mail until the day after they needed a response by!!! HOW BAD DOES THAT SUCK!!!
But I remember looking at pricing.. NLDS was like $43, $73.. NLCS was $70, $140 (i thought).. and World Series were like $150, $300 … its nuts. but when you only have 45,000 seats you need to make that money back with higher ticket prices.
There was an article about how New York teams are outpricing their real fans with these new stadiums.. average ticket prices are going crazy and they are moving good seats around to make room for SUITES
So if you really get those tickets for $130 Phil, I’d get them…. and uhm, if not, let me know so I can buy them!!
October 8th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
I don’t know if I can afford it honestly. I am really broke right now. My friend and I are discussing the possibilities. Our main thing is that we’d rather just get a bunch of friends together and get drunk and watch the game together like we did throughout the NLDS/clinching day. It’s tough to even get properly drunk down at the stadium too. I really want to experience it, so we’ll see.
October 8th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
130 is insanely cheap for what tickets are going for right now, espcially for a lower level section.
October 8th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
I hear you… I like being able to see the replays. and just have a good view of every play… which usually happens on TV more than in person
October 8th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
!30 for any playoff tickets is cheap, I go to a lot of sixers games and most times they are comp. My family works for comcast ,but when I sometime have to pay its crazy it cost me almost a hundred a ticket plus parking for side view of basketball, and that’s regular season. To get playoff for that prices is good. You will see the scalper getting over two hundred a ticket tomorrow.
October 8th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
Gotta love how the entire national media has a huge man-crush on the Dodgers and a pipe dream for Manny & Torre vs. the Red Sox.
October 8th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
Is it a policy of all clubs to charge you a fee of twenty dollars to buy playoff tickets. I don’t understand process fee to buy a playoff ticket.
October 8th, 2008 at 4:47 pm
SJMike This is there chance to make money for showing the games. If boston and dogers play. You can justifiy large ad dollars. The market share is huge in those two cities. Tampa Bay would be a disaster for the network, I don’t think phillies would be that bad wish I can work the computer better. I believe the 1980 series was one of the highest rated in history and 1993 drew real good number.
October 8th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
Mikemike, I know, it is just funny how the Dodgers are suddenly this unstoppable force (much like CC Sabathia before we faced him).
I was just watching Jim Rome is burning, and his lead off topic was all about how Manny will be facing the Red Sox in the World Series. The LCS series haven’t even started, and Jim Rome (along with many other writers) have this pipe dream of Manny back at Fenway and showing up Boston.
October 8th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
Harden had a seven million dollars contract pick up today by the cubs . He was 10-2 with 2.07 era if healthy what a steal. He started twentyfive games. Most starter will go 33-34 so at that price if he misses some starts. still a steal eaton gets 8.5 this year. I thought he was a rental player, now I really wish we got him, he would look good next year. Plus if he is a type a we get two good draft choices. which would have replace the player we would have gave up.
October 8th, 2008 at 4:58 pm
Regarding playoff tickets, I had tickets in section 413 for game 5 of the NLDS that were $43 a piece and I have tickets for game 2 NLCS in the same section (weird coincidence) that are $83 a piece. So the Phillies basically doubled the prices from the first round to the second round. Makes sense, and I hope they spend that extra money in the offseason.
October 8th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
I agree about Harden mikemike, $7 million bucks is a nice price for him. The Cubs had their doctor evaluate his shoulder this morning and then they picked up his option this afternoon. I wish the Phils got him.
October 8th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
You can’t listen to a lot of these writers. Most of them don’t get to see the teams outside there area. How many times do you think Rome has seen the phillies. He just looks at manny and them winning 20 of 25 and bases his opinion. Its like me and don talking about third baseman I only really have seen felix, a lot and wright a lot and Glaus so I can only comment on those players. How can I tell if a player is a great fielder by his stats. not really. it’s the same when they look at Ryan Howard hitting 254 and say he isn’t mvp because of average. How many clutch hits does he have look at his numbers with runner in scoring position. does he get pitch around because burrell isn’t hitting all these things are factors. Do you think outside the city the writers go into the details to give a accurate account. This year in my opinion the no shortstop played a better shortstop then Rollins. He was unbelievalbe in the field. He might have more errors than others but the plays he made just make him the best this year.He got to ball Hanley raminez would only dream about.
October 8th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
But Jim Rome is never short to go on a tangent about how much he dislikes Brett Myers.
It was the same deal when we faced Sabathia in Game 2 of the NLDS. It was going to be impossible to beat him, Phils don’t have a chance against him. Most of the predictions that said 3-1 series wins penciled that Brewer win for Sabathia.
Now the Dodgers are an “unstoppable” force for beating the Cubs who played awful and beat themselves.
I’m amused and annoyed all at the same time.
October 8th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
Griffin just wondering did they charge you a twenty dollar process fee.
October 8th, 2008 at 5:18 pm
yeah, they charged me 6 bucks for each ticket and an 8 dollar non-refundable fee for the whole order. So I would up paying an extra 26 bucks. By the way, the game 5 NLDS tickets included that 8 dollar fee that was non-refundable. I got my money back for the tickets, but not that 8 dollar fee. Lame.
October 8th, 2008 at 5:18 pm
SJ Mike you are annoyed because of your passion for the phillies. Someone is rooting against your team. It’s a normal reaction. Remember games are won on the field .
October 8th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
I just read somewhere that the Dodgers are considering pitching Lowe in Game 4 on short rest so that he’ll be able to pitch game 7 on full rest. Manuel has said he has no intention of doing this to Hamels.
October 8th, 2008 at 6:10 pm
Sounds like Kuo is going to make the roster and pitch, though probably only able to pitch every other day. Makes the Dodgers bullpen stronger, though it also sounds like Saito may be left off if he can’t be effective. Won’t be concrete til tomorrow.
Jim Rome is a bit of a jerk, and I’m a Dodger fan saying that, I could care less what he says or predicts. He probably can’t name more than 4 guys on their team. Or on the Phillies.
Anyway, good luck.
October 8th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
Kuo making the roster is not good for the Phils. Now they’ll have two lefties and can counter a Greg Dobbs pinch-hitting appearance with Kuo and save Beimel for Utley/Howard later on. Oh well, this is going to be a tough series
October 8th, 2008 at 6:28 pm
I am surprised Kuo won’t be starting over Kershaw in game 3 or 4, especially since the Phillies have big lefty hitters. I guess keeping him in the bullpen gives them a little versatility late in games.
Nothing beats the atmosphere at a Phillies playoff game, but honestly I prefer to watch from home. The only way I’d really go to a playoff game during the playoffs is if it was a clincher. Plus, ticket prices are crazy.
October 8th, 2008 at 7:36 pm
That processing fee is like to me paying a cover charge to go drink in a club. or going to a restaurant and being charge twenty dollars for them to valet your car you are spending money in there restaurant yet they charge you to park. do They only charge it for playoff games is that right?