Phillies Nation

77 Responses to “Dempster Deal Poorly Sets Free Agent Market”

1. joe Says:
   November 18th, 2008 at 2:03 pm

   Are the White Sox looking to trade Dye or have they cleared the money they wanted to? he’d be a perfect fit and affordable.

2. Tim Malcolm Says:
   November 18th, 2008 at 2:06 pm

   No word about that. Honestly, Ken Williams is pretty flippant. He’ll do anything and anytime, so long as the deal is right. So don’t ever think Dye is off the table; at the same time, don’t ever think he really was on the table.

3. Sam Says:
   November 18th, 2008 at 2:07 pm

   Dempster is better than Silva was…he had a decent season.

   When people like Eaton, Silva or Livian Hernandez get big contracts, thats when I start to worry.

4. Geoff Says:
   November 18th, 2008 at 2:29 pm

   Well, the Dempster signing does do one thing…it eliminates the silva signing. Silva was one fo the worst signings ever in free agency. at least dempster is a decent pitcher. so for a decent – good starter, this is the new value.

   burnett will pull down 15mm a year, lowe probably 15mm, does that mean garland gets 9-10 mm? reallly? 7 mm for moyer is pushing it too..

   this will get interesting now to see how they handle this. they said theyre going to improve the rotation…well lets see how they do it

5. Matt Kwasiborski Says:
   November 18th, 2008 at 2:30 pm

   If we can’t get Moyer back, which would totally shock me, why not try to sign his other former Seattle rotation mate, the Big Unit!

6. Don M Says:
   November 18th, 2008 at 2:31 pm

   I read that before about Dye, Magglio Ordonez, Coco Crisp, Baldelli.. but wasn’t sure where any of those names came from. Are any of them really up for grabs?

   Baldelli is a risk because you’ll never know if he is healthy.. Ordonez is a SUPERSTAR and would cost a TON… but Jermaine Dye and Coco Pebbles are both very good still, eventhough I think Crisp is a girl for starting that fight against the Rays last year.. THAT outfield would be nuts… Crisp, Victorino, Werth

   nothing would ever drop

7. Tim Malcolm Says:
   November 18th, 2008 at 2:35 pm

   I don’t know how people won’t compare Dempster to Silva. Dempster has four above-average years in adjusted ERA over an 11-year career. Silva has four above-average years in adjusted ERA over a 6-year career. And Silva pitched in the American League, while Dempster has spent his entire career in the National League.

8. Don M Says:
   November 18th, 2008 at 2:36 pm

   Jamie Moyer won 16 games last year, in a HITTERS BALLPARK as his home field, while rocking a 3.71 ERA

   If that isn’t worth AT LEAST $7 M….. I dont know what is.

   I’d like to see the Phillies offer him like 2 years $15 Million.

   Randy Johnson is one of the ugliest people I’ve ever seen, so I don’t want him on my squad

9. Tim Malcolm Says:
   November 18th, 2008 at 2:41 pm

   Baldelli is a free agent; Dye is supposedly being dangled by Chicago; Dombrowski seemed to say Ordonez is off limits; Crisp has been dangled by the Red Sox all season.

10. PhillyFriar Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 2:41 pm

    I think this is what we all expected though.

    If the Phils want to push the boat out, then I think Lowe is the way to go — though it’ll cost probably $14 million per for 3 or 4 years, I think. Barring that, a 1-year flier on someone like Penny or Colon (or Johnson, as Matt says, but I don’t think he’d want to come back to the East Coast) is probably their best bet.

    As it is, I think your scenario is the most likely: a mid-level signing to address the hole in LF (assuming Burrell signs elsewhere), a rotation candidate, and a bullpen piece or two. If the increase in payroll is used to structure an extension for someone like Hamels or Werth, then I’ll be pretty happy.

11. Chutley Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 2:58 pm

    PEDROIA won MVP WHAT A JOKE

12. NJ Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 3:00 pm

    That’s a bit harsh Pedroia really stepped up this year, if he hadn’t when he did then no post-season for the Sox.

13. Don M Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 3:06 pm

    I probably would have voted for Pedroia or Justin Morneu…. Pedroia had a great season and really was steady for that team this year

14. Chutley Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 3:07 pm

    they won the wild card by six games. i think they would have been fine. Morneau was much more valuable. the Twins woulda been done in June without him

15. Don M Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 3:14 pm

    I dunno it all comes down to what the “MVP” really is… if it just goes to the BEST player.. or the player most valuable to his team..

    And even that can get broken down.. how valuable are you to your team if your team doesnt even make the playoffs?

    That said…I think they got both MVPs right

16. NJ Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 3:14 pm

    I’m hearing some noise Sheets value has dropped to $12m on as little as a 2 year deal and it might even be less than that, I’m not on the we have to get a legit number 2 bandwagon but it’d be silly not to get into the bidding at below market value.

17. Don M Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 3:19 pm

    He’s worth the risk to us, the fans, but while they are still eating money from Eaton, I don’t see them going after a Injury-prone pitcher… In their minds.. Brett Myers is Ben Sheets, but healthy

18. Tim Malcolm Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 3:22 pm

    Forget Pedroia. Another reason to hate MVP voting:

    Jason Bartlett, he of the .329 OBP, .361 SLG and 16 errors, got six votes. That’s more votes than: Mike Mussina, Raul Ibanez, Ian Kinsler, Ichiro Suzuki, Mark Teixeira, Diasuke Matsuzaka, Roy Halladay, Scott Kazmir, Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez … I could go on.

19. NJ Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 3:24 pm

    Yep my thoughts too Don with Myers but with his price-tag dropping massively wouldn’t be surprised to see us get into the mix for Sheets and actually go for a stop-gap in the outfield. Amaro has said pitching is the priority and this fits the profile without reaching.

20. Lewisauce Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 3:26 pm

    Why would Sheets’ value drop that much when Dempster just set the standard with a $50 mil, 4-year deal?

21. Lewisauce Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 3:27 pm

    I’m skeptical …

22. NJ Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 3:32 pm

    Because Dempster’s health and Sheets isn’t, Burnett and Lowe will get their deals but it’s tough to see anyone else who’s issues are being over-looked. Every time Sheets name comes up the first comment is health and big eye brows are seemingly being raised over his September. I though the talk of 38/2 to Houston was about right but it sounds like his fallen has dropped him down a tier, one report I heard today had 6-8 as the figure with 12 described as the ceiling.

23. Geoff Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 3:32 pm

    See I think Atkins fits LF because hes cheaper but still has decent power. That allows you to resign moyer at 7mm (just because i think its a lot of money doesnt mean i dont think its a no brainer to resign him, I mean if that what his price is then whatever), raise other players through arb, give hamels, a contract, get a reliever or two off the reliever scrap pile, and then maybe you do go with a ben sheets at a reduced rate if you can get him for one to two years…

24. NJ Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 3:33 pm

    The problem with Atkins is it’s tough to see how a deal can be made unless we come out losers in it.

25. Manny Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 3:34 pm

    Not to be cruel with Jamie but if he’s gonna cost the Phillies 7 million, then we should say “no thanks” and spend that amount plus an extra 4-5 million on Lowe.

26. NJ Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 3:37 pm

    Thanks for making us laugh there Manny… The chances of Lowe signing for 11-12 are on a par with Howard taking a pay-cut in arbitration, if the Mets or Braves even sniffed us in the mix they’d jack up the price past the expected mimimum 45/3 rumored.

27. Don M Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 3:40 pm

    Atkins would take Marson or something like that to get… So that would bring Ruiz into the mix. A lot was made about the fact that his hitting was down, but EVERYONE in the organization said that he is a much better hitter than he showed during the course of the year… and god knows what got into him in the postseason!

    There was also a report that his mother was very, very ill.. and he would call his family non-stop, whenever he had free time.. he is not only the provider for his family, but his extended family as well, etc… and he doesn’t make that much money (in terms of MLB players).. But his defense was really something this season, the staff likes throwing to him.. and the Phillies will have some tough decisions to make if Marson steps up this year.. do you want the offense or the defense behind the plate???

28. From Section 113 Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 3:40 pm

    Chutley- You do realize that Pedroia led the AL in hits/Runs/Doubles and was 2nd in Avg.

    He led the Red Sox all season, Morneau finishing 2nd is no slap in the face. Their OPS+ weren’t that far off, especially considering their positions.

29. Don M Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 3:41 pm

    If he’s going to cost the Philles 7 million, we should say “Thanks, no, here’s some more..just for you!”

30. Chutley Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 3:45 pm

    Lowe went 14-11 3.24 ERA with a 1.31 park adjusted ERA……….. Moyer 16-7 3.71 ERA with a 1.18 park adjusted ERA……….. I’ll take the home town hero

31. Manny Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 3:45 pm

    Dear NJ, did you read the post by Tim? The part where it says: “Derek Lowe will drop in for $12 million per year.” 12 million is a good estimate for Lowe.

    If it’s 12, even 13, I think it’s worth it.

32. NJ Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 3:46 pm

    Don I hope we stash Carrasco, Marson, Donald and Golson in Leigh Valley and turn that team into a real feeder. It may be playing it safe but those top 2 could be stars if groomed right.

    Colorado have been asking for pitching and outside of Carrasco who’s off limits it’d be tough to see who past Happ would be acceptable to them as Donald or Golson would make the deal a real reach for us.

33. Don M Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 3:50 pm

    Golson might only be a year away from the bigs too, so if he can cut his K-rate, maybe this year it makes more sense to just find a fill-in instead of a new LF

    They have a few young OF that are very talented in the A-ball ranks.. maybe in Reading this coming season, so not too far away at all

34. Manny Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 3:52 pm

    Chutley: If we really are going to believe that Moyer will repeat his 2008 season, we may be in for a surprise… I think we need a solid No.2 starter, someone to put in between Hamels and Myers.

    Moyer could well be our No. 5 starter next year, at a price tag of around 7 million. Now, I know we’re paying something similar to a guy playing in Triple-A, but I just don’t see Moyer repeating a nearly flawless season in 2009… I really don’t think that the risk justifies the cost. On the other hand, we could spend that money and some more to get a more reliable starter who fits nicely as our No. 2 pitcher.

35. Don M Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 3:52 pm

    Sabathia is going to get the bank… Burnett and Lowe are going to get $15 M a year for 4+ ….. the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Braves, and Red Sox are all looking for pitching.. you really think the Phillies have outbid any of them for Lowe??

36. NJ Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 3:53 pm

    I did read that but I would disagree from what I’m seeing said. The Yankees, Mets, Red Sox and Braves have expressed definate interest and the Mets and Braves would overpay if they though the Phils we’re talking to Lowe. Maybe Lowe does go for $12m but he’d need years to drop his price especially with Dempster landing 4 years. I really would love to be on your Lowe band-wagon but he’s not falling to us, the Mets in particular wouldn’t let it happen.

37. NJ Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 3:58 pm

    Yeah i started keeping tabs on Brown and Berry at the beginning of the ‘08 season which is why I was really surprise we dealt Cardenas and held onto Golson with those two already in the system.

    Reading could be a winner this year if some of this years picks can get up there quickly.

38. Chutley Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 3:58 pm

    Manny?Why can;t he repeat his 2008 season? It’s not like his stuff is getting any slower.

39. Manny Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 4:03 pm

    Again, look at the Beyond the Box Score analysis for our Phillies (Tim posted this a while ago): http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/11/3/652052/2008-team-reviews-philadel#comments

    It rates our bullpen, starting rotation, offense, and fielding…

    For offense, fielding, and bullpen: the Phillies were above (or well-above) league-average.

    For starting rotation: “the Phillies’ rotation was a couple steps below major-league average.”

    So, obviously, even if Pat leaves the team, our priority is and should be our starting rotation. We need someone reliable, steady, who can be a No. 2 or No. 3. I don’t think that bringing an Odalis Perez or someone like him will do much to improve our pitching. We need a boost, even if it costs us more than originally expected.

40. NJ Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 4:10 pm

    I agree but I’m confident we’ll be fine and until next year with a further developed Carrasco and with Eaton and potentially Myers off the books the Phils can fill the hole with the Yankees, Mets and Cubs all hand-cuffed by their impending deals. In this market we’re not getting a number 2 for anything less than 45/3 unless we have interest in Sheets. If the Yankees go with Burnett instead of Lowe and the Red Sox don’t make a deal Minaya and Wren aren’t stupid, they won’t let him sign with the Phils unless it cripples the Phillies payroll and Amaro isn’t that stupid.

41. NJ Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 4:14 pm

    ^what I’m trying to say is you don’t try and muscle in when the big boys have their chequebooks out and it’s incredibly unlikely one of the hot guys are going to fall past the teams willing to pay a premium to make sure they don’t get left with no-one.

42. Manny Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 4:17 pm

    Good point there NJ. IF the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs all get hand-cuffed like you say, then the prudent thing to do would be resigning Moyer now for a ONE year deal, so that next offseason we could get a solid pitcher to fill the gap… But I don’t even think that a one year deal is possible with Moyer… we may also end up hand-cuffed with him if we give him more than 2 years!

43. Don M Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 4:26 pm

    That is why the Phillies drafted Savery, and Drabek.. guys with top-of-the-rotation potential

    The Phillies will ALWAYS have like 5 teams that will outspend them every off-season, so trades, and player development are the way to get it done for us.

    Hamels, Myers, Madson drafted….Blanton, Moyer, Lidge trades.

    and then the scrap-heap guys Romero, Durbin, Eyre… that if you have good scouts and they can “guess” right on those pitchers..

    Out-bidding someone for ONE pitcher isn’t worth it unless its Santana, Sabathia, etc… and we already have that big contract coming up with Hamels in a few years!

44. NJ Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 4:27 pm

    The rumor is Moyer asked for 18/2 but he’s not going to get that in this market, 14/2 sounds realistic. I think at this point we have to commit to the idea Myers will have his head on straight, Blanton will be the Blanton of old before the A’s tried to make him a front-line guy and Moyer will be somewhere between his ‘07 and ‘08.

    Though we can only guess on whats happening now neither the Yankees, Mets or Cubs will be in the hunt for frontline pitching next off-season with the deals they are looking to make at this point in time, I doubt the Sox or Angels will either with their pitching prospects so we have a far better opportunity then.

    I have to say Sheets does look viable right now, it’s a risk but if he has in fact fallen he’d be within reach of us now. I still think that if the success of te coming season hinges on a number 2 then we’ll be seing greater issues with the offense which was a problem this year.

45. Manny Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 4:34 pm

    ONE solid pitcher can do more for a team than 3 good batters…

46. NJ Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 4:36 pm

    To continue on Don’s theme there if you look at what Boston are doing it’s a blueprint from success. Though they have had the money to reach with Crisp, Lugo, Drew- Esptein has built a team that is constantly re-inforced by cheap, controllable prospects (Papelborn, Pedroia, Lester, Delcarmen then a second wave of Ellsbury, Bucholz, Masterson, Lowrie) that means they are in a position to go after or re-sign marquee names because their not paying veteran saleries across the board.

    This is the blueprint the Phils need to adopt because we are burning holes into the payroll even with stop-gaps. The A’s paying $4m for their top draft pick you is a pretty big sign of where teams need to be putting every cent they can muster not FA.

47. The Dipsy Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 4:45 pm

    Last week I thought Lowe was good for 3/45m. He’s 36 this season. Nobody will give him 4 years. If they do they’re silly. I’ll take Lowe for sayyyy…….um……3/40. Jaime WILL take a one year deal. He has to. He won’t leave Philly unless he’s blown away. Pencil him in for 1/8m.

    Hamels LH
    Lowe RH
    Myers RH
    Moyers LH
    Blanton RH

    MMMMM…..Yummy. Could get it done.

48. Don M Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 4:56 pm

    I don’t even know why we’re getting into all this… im pretty sure Lowe has a 0.015% chance of playing for the Phillies next season, who will go into 2009 with a rotation of:

    Hamels, Myers, Moyer, Blanton, Happ ….. or something very close to that

49. Don M Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 4:57 pm

    AND.. I can definitely see Moyer getting an 18/2 contract from someone… he’s proved he can stay healthy his entire career.. and he can outsmart even the best hitters in baseball with 80mph fastballs. Someone will give him a decent contract, I hope its the Phillies..

50. Enzo Valentini Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 5:01 pm

    52 over 4 is a decent deal for Dempster. I was afraid the Cubs were going to do something stupid like 70/5, but this is reasonable (and trade-able). Does this mean Peavy talks are going nowhere — or was the price just right?

51. The Dipsy Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 5:06 pm

    Don, with all due respect, you would like to be tied into Moyer when he’s 49 years old for probably 10m since it will be the second year of a two year deal? Not me. Save the $7-$9m, add on $4m and get one of these guys. Look at Moyer’s last 5 years. Nice season Jaime, but, ummm…..

52. NJ Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 5:07 pm

    The Padres are just trying to drive the price up on the Braves, he’s said he’ll only waive his no trade veto if the team he’s going to isn’t weaker from the trade…

53. Eb Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 5:09 pm

    Don M. I agree with you on the rotation. I think Kendrick is done in Philly, unless he develops a good change up.

    I do not know what his trade value is but I would not mind putting him in a package with Jason Donald and/or Golson and seeing what is available. Golson just strikes out to much.

54. Don M Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 5:10 pm

    Honestly, I don’t care about the exact number that is his age… he stays healthy, and he’s effective.. throw his age out, look at the numbers, and you’d see he’s worth as much as those big name pitchers… He’s just older

    I forget the number I said earlier, but I think it was 15/2 for Moyer.. I’d be fine with them going higher if need be. I think he’s that good, and I think he’s done wonders for Cole Hamels

55. Eb Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 5:12 pm

    NJ…It is well known the Braves have a very strict policy on No Trade Clauses, which i think is another problem with the potential deal. Peavy would go to Atlanata and not want to be traded again.

56. NJ Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 5:12 pm

    Dipsy with all due respect, $13 million isn’t going to get Lowe or Burnett unless the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Orioles, Braves all suddenly decide they don’t have frontline pitching needs and the Cardinals, Astros and Dodgers all stay in their corners too.

    Remember Moyers more than just a back of the rotation pitcher and it’s a necessary move.

57. NJ Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 5:15 pm

    Reports have been out today that Wren still believe’s he’ll get a deal done for Peavy. The Cubs are off the table and the rumor is the Yankees and Angels are very far from an actual offer, if the Dodgers don’t get back into this can’t see anyway Peavy doesn’t land in Atlanta for pretty much the same deal as the Padres recently balked at.

58. Richie Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 5:22 pm

    I honestly think that the absolute #1 priority to start the offseason, before signing free agents should have been Ruben Amaro walking into Cole Hamels’ home and saying”Cole give me the next six years of your life and here is a blank check.” Him, Utley, and Victorino in that order are the only players that cannot be replaced on this team. Period. End of story!!

59. maxhole Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 5:30 pm

    all it takes is a little digging to see what the mets want. the most recent talk on metsblog is the yanks will make an offer for lowe that the mets cant match. then again they also commented that they might offer burrell a contract (burrell in blue, really?)

    i like what don says about our rotation too. phils have quality new heads coming around. i wouldnt even count out kendrick. i keep seeing lowe the sinkerballer this and that. how many of you have forgotten how foolish kendricks sinker makes guys look when he’s on. he would make for a good trade at least. then we still have happ who owned this year, and carrasco coming up. a consistent #2 would be great, but not necessarily most important. find a fill for burrell who puts up similar numbers. ——-> jermaine dye

60. Manny Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 5:36 pm

    And don’t even get me started with the risks of one of our pitchers getting injured… Just imagine what would happen to our rotation if Hamels gets injured, like has been the case for him nearly every year except ‘08… Maybe I’m too risk-averse, but we cannot just hope that our current starting rotation will have a 2008-type year. We’ve been SO LUCKY. Hamels didn’t get injured despite all the innings he pitched. Moyer had a stellar year. Myers came up from the minor leagues firing. Blanton was a hit. When Kendrick began sucking (after getting ELEVEN wins), Happ was a hit.

    It’s almost too good to be true. And here we are, settling for BLAH…

61. Chuck P Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 5:38 pm

    Lowe would be a nice fit… I would be shocked if Moyer got 18/2. I think that the teams that might be willing to go 18/2 are the teams that aren’t interested in a 45 y/o slowballer. Those teams are looking at AJ Burnett and his 98 MPH fastball and high K ratio with an open checkbook. You know what I say… they can have Burnett. I think that we’re heading into spring with Myers as our #2 and a stop-gap #5 (Moyer will be back as our #3). I think that we’re going to need a pitcher at some point but we have a couple of guys on the farm that can fill in if need be (Happ and Eaton… let’s hope it doesn’t get to that). If we can get Lowe for cheap, then I would be willing to bring him in but I still think that we need a bat in the OF pretty badly. I’ll pass on Atkins… he’s not going to protect Howard at all. Frankly, there aren’t many OF on the market which makes it tough. It might have to be a trade that gets it done… Marson, Golson or Happ (if we get a SP; if we don’t we’re gonna need him)…

    I POSTED THIS ON ANOTHER BOARD WHEN SOMEONE SAID THAT THEY WOULD LET HOWARD WALK RATHER THAN PAY HIM…

    Like everyone else, I’m guilty of one major violation of the unwritten rules of “fanhood.” Time and time again, I cross the line of fanhood, into the world of business. It’s in my nature (I’m an investment advisor by trade)… I feel like I need to help allocate the owners’ monies wisely but the reality is I’m just a fan and those owners are doing just fine. So rather than plea for the players that would help my team win a championship, I settle for scenarios that make good business sense. Let me tell you this, I want Ryan Howard on my team no matter what it costs. Yes, it might eat into David Montgomery’s bottom line but why should that matter to me? He might even lose money one year… isn’t that how business works? To say that he’s going to make Yankee-money is a slap in the face to our fan base. Haven’t we earned the right to know that our organiztion is dedicated to winning championships? Ryan Howard’s contract is about this team letting us know that they’re going to do whatever it takes to get us there again and again and again. Sign the kid… and sign Magglio, too while they’re at it! LET’S GO PHILLIES!!

62. NJ Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 5:51 pm

    On that last point it’ll open up a whole new thread probably but I don’t think we ‘pay’ Howard but we don’t have to make that call yet. He can hit better than anyone in the league if it’s put in his kitchen when he’s hot, but in almost every other area of the game he’s regressing at an alarming rate to the point at FA he could end up looking like Aubrey Huff if he doesn’t turn it around but still demanding Teix money. You don’t expect to see your elite bat attacked by pitching all year long and that’s what happened with Howard. We pay market value through arbitration then deal him for top talent and let someone else pay him the payroll crippling deal he’ll be asking for unless he heads back into Pujols territory.

63. mikemike Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 7:39 pm

    Following the minors like I do people don’t fall in love with Golson or savery, Golson isn’t getting any better he is falling out OF favor and his only value right now is his speed, Savery was the easy sign not the best prospect or a top of the rotation starter. Any one who follows the draft knows about rice pitcher and how they struggle. the coach at rice is known for ruining pitcher, we drafted a hurt pitcher because he was a easy sign not based on talent, they did it with tyler mach when they had too many choices. and didn’t want to commit the money in the draft they took myler because he would sign cheap. as you know he quit this year after one season. he was overmatched. If they committed more to the draft and international draft then we would maybe have a replacemnt in line for left field or third base. instead we are trying all these crazy trade rumors and silly suggestion on what they will do. The phillies will try to resign burrell at there number if he bolts, then its a platoon system, if moyer goes it perez or carrasco .

64. NJ Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 7:59 pm

    The Phils were praised for taking Savery as the insiders seem to think he fell though I agree the Phils aren’t putting near enough into the draft and international recruitment in particular. We seem to be stuck drafting like it’s still the 1990’s reaching at every stage with physical specimins rather than promising ballplayers. It’s amazing the a team that on the whole ranks outside the top third in total investment in the draft ranks near the top in average per player signed. Hewitt may turn into a great player but there are so many can’t miss prospects coming out and the Phils need to get active in legitimate fast-track prospects, teams that don’t get players up in waves don’t stay around at the top or long. Most of these guys are coming up at 22/23 and are producing at the major league level at a fraction of the cost.

    All that said there’s a buzz around several of the guys who’ve been taken in the past two drafts.

65. mikemike Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 8:19 pm

    This year they spent a little more on the mlb draft then didn’t do anything in the international draft. How can a Oakland spend 4 million on a top prospect and we don’t do anthing so many great players come out of that market. We instead go to brazil and australia and korea. we sign two korea players who are so bad the scout get fired. One of the difference is when we signed bell and others and had no first round choice or second. why didn’t we sign a high ceiling high school kid . you have to overpaid to get them to drop there committent to college, but its better than drafting a five foot 5 college player who can;t play like Moss and trying to sell that as a good pick. no it was a fourth round cheap alterantive to going after a hard to sign high school kid with a high ceiling. But they won once in 28 years so it’s okay. Remember as good as people think Blanton was he only gave them 6 of 16 quality starts. what happens if myers fall back to his old ways and blanton becomes another kenrick. I still believe we need a number2 more important than anyother position right now.

66. Memphis Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 8:49 pm

    Interesting take on Lowe by Baseball Prospectus, briefly mentions Lowe’s potential at age 36 versus Greg Maddux’s production at the same age:
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8316

    BP seems to love Lowe, especially in front of a good infield like ours (as in Cy Young potential). If the statheads are right, and we can somehow get him, whatever the number, whatever the years, that would be nice. I do think 45/3 is likely a minimum, with a 4th year maybe being a clincher. Nice to dream about that rotation, Dipsy.

    I would not give up on Kendrick. He’s young, he’s inconsistent, but he can get better at AAA. Not everyone is awesome in their first 30 starts (and he did win 11). I actually think we should trust Kendrick, Happ, or Carrasco to fill 1-2 slots in the rotation by second half 2009 or 2010 at the latest.

    I would be shocked if Moyer gets a better deal than the 12.5/2 he signed with us 2 years ago. I could see 7 or 8 for one-year and a club option for a second year at 4 or 5, with an innings incentive to get it higher. Heck, if we got Lowe, I could see us reconsidering Moyer. His age is a risk, we can’t be blind to that. Anyway, I expect Moyer to be back, even if we overpay a few mill.

    As for Howard, the argument against a big deal for him is about how sustainable his production will be and his value in the field. He may be a 40/120 guy for 5-8 years, a few guys can provide that, but he whiffs a ton, has trouble with lefties, and his defense is not good. The argument against him is a stathead argument, he’ll decline quicker than normal because of his weight and long swing, because he isn’t a high-average hitter, it’s more all or nothing. That’s not to say he won’t be a premier HR hitter for the next 5-8 years, he may be. There’s just higher risk to a player like that, that’s all. A 100/5 type of deal for him would be risky. There are solid arguments for and against it based on the type of player he is. I’d love to have him here long-term (if his defense doesn’t get worse), but not for Manny money.

67. christopher Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 9:48 pm

    anyone who doesn’t think moyer deservers 7 mill is out of their minds. i’m totally fine with hamels / myers / moyer / blanton and the kids battling it out for the 5th start, i have been since the end of the regular season.

68. KM Says:
    November 18th, 2008 at 11:36 pm

    I think you used the right word when you said the chances of a big free agent for the Phillies was bleak.

    Moyer could probably get 9mil + if he goes out into free agency, but hopefully we can get him back in the 7-8 million range. I wouldn’t mind a 2 year, 16 million, with 12 million guaranteed.

69. J cole Says:
    November 19th, 2008 at 1:31 am

    This name is bothering me… Greg Golson. It looks way too close to Michael Bourne. Here is a piece to any package, Golson and Kendrick. Throw in Coste or Condrey (or both) and I am still not complaining.

70. maxhole Says:
    November 19th, 2008 at 1:51 am

    michael bourne helped us get lidge. if that slew of guys could get us someone who put out half the production lidge did, i think the team might win a few games

71. The Dipsy Says:
    November 19th, 2008 at 8:13 am

    Ponder Gentle Reader: If another pitcher comes, and he absolutely MUST if we are to be able to say we have a strong enough staff to contend for another WS via a trade, it may come via a trade. Hamels is a #1, but we have no #2. The other guys are all 3/4 types on really good teams. That said, perhaps lets start with Luke “I Am Your Father” Donald. Jammed at his position. If he can’t play third then lets trade him. His value is high and he won’t play for us.

    Golson. He is starting to feel very Jeff Jackson-ish to me. His value is still on the high side but another year of striking will sap that. He can go.

    Those guys as the centerpiece of a deal should garner you a lot. A third player of mild pedigree, big league or minors, could be involved.

    NOTE: I hate parting with good prospects. Thats how the Braves get their players in a pinch. Thats the benefit of a good farm system. Play em or trade em for what ya need.

    Does the name Roy Oswalt mean anything to anyone?

72. Don M Says:
    November 19th, 2008 at 10:40 am

    Greg Golson already has MLB-ready defense and speed, …not sure about his throwing-arm (i’d imagine its decent).. he can hit for average and has some pop in his bat

    obviously, you’d like to see him strike out less. He’s a young guy, “toolsy”, with lots of upside, so i’d like to see them hang onto him, unless you can get a Garret Atkins, Jermaine Dye, etc…

73. NJ Says:
    November 19th, 2008 at 10:56 am

    We don’t have a shot at Oswalt right now, rumor is we’re back in the Burnett sweepsteaks with a low offer.

    I’d be all for packaging Golson if we can add an upper tier starter or outfielder but it’s wishful thinking, I like the kid but there’s two guys just like him about a years development behind and for all the potential Golson has no plate vision. On a sideline Coco Crisp has been traded to the Royals, really don’t see us adding anything more than a Jason Michaels right now.

74. RichieAllen Says:
    November 19th, 2008 at 4:27 pm

    If we know we cant compete with The Big Checkbook teams’ dollars….How can we even keep Jamie Moyer?Will the home town interest keep him here?There is limited pitching out there ,and teams need it.
    I dont think were going to give him more than 8/mil for 2 years,but if one of those teams gives him 3+years and more money,he’s probably gone.
    I think he’s more valuable than wins and innings to the Phils.
    Then again ,his best might be behind him.
    I dont envy Amaro on this one.

75. KM Says:
    November 19th, 2008 at 8:03 pm

    I agree with you Don M. Golson is almost major league-ready now, if he could just get him OBP up and cool off the strikeouts.

    Golson is not Bourn, people. Bourn had nothing but speed and defense. Bourn never had pop in his bat, and never really had the inate ability to get on base. Golson is like a Bourn who can hit.

76. crashburnalley.com » Blog Archive » Somewhat of an Update Says:
    November 19th, 2008 at 10:02 pm

    [...] Phillies Nation: Dempster Deal Poorly Sets Free Agent Market [...]

77. SJ Phillies Fan Says:
    November 20th, 2008 at 11:35 am

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