Holliday As A Phillie: How 2008 Would’ve Looked

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Fri, November 07, 2008 12:50 PM

As the hot stove burns and the Matt Holliday pot starts to boil, you start to look deeper, fishing for reasons to say, “Yes! Let’s do it!” or “No! No freakin’ way!”

One major point that gets great scrutiny is the Coors Field effect. In his 2007, MVP-quality season, Holliday hit .376 with 25 HR and 82 RBI in Denver. On the road? He hit .301 with 11 HR and 55 RBI.

The Coors Field effect has affected many hitters in history — before Denver, Dante Bichette was a mild-mannered 15-HR hitter. In Denver, he averaged 30 homers and a .315 average over seven seasons. How about Andres Galarraga? He hit .243 for Saint Louis in 1992. In 1993, he hit Denver and hit .370.

So, if Holliday were to play for the Phillies, would the Phils be victim of the Coors Field effect?

I looked at his 2008 statistics. Holliday had a bit of a down campaign, aided by a 15-day DL stint. Still, it was a fine season, and I reconfigured his statistics to show how he’d fare if a Phillie and not a Rockie. How?

  • I took averages of Holliday’s H, HR, RBI, BB and K per game at shared ballparks, then applied those averages in accordance of the amount of games the Phillies played at those ballparks.
  • At non-shared ballparks I took Holliday’s season averages and applied them. Note: Holliday didn’t play at Citizens Bank Park in 2008, so all those numbers are taken from season averages.
  • I factored in the 15-day DL stint, and three days Holliday missed in September. (This means Holliday would’ve played 70 games in Philadelphia, not a full 81.)

Here are the comparisons:

2008 Holliday w/COL : .321 AVG / 25 HR / 88 RBI / 74 BB / 104 K
2008 Holliday w/PHI : .314 AVG / 25 HR / 80 RBI / 87 BB / 116 K

The differences aren’t too wild, but you can see Holliday loses some production by playing away from Denver, and especially from playing away from San Francisco, San Diego, Arizona and Los Angeles. You can also see his walks and strikeouts both increase. Obviously, if Holliday plays for the Phillies, he’d have some decent protection around him (Chase Utley, Ryan Howard), so these numbers could be very different. So does this all say “No! No freakin’ way!” Well, not quite.

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67 Responses to “Holliday As A Phillie: How 2008 Would’ve Looked”

  1. Dennis Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 1:15 pm

    No freakin’ way!…..SHOULD WE NOT DO THIS!!!! Let’s find a way to get him by keeping Vic and Werth! And yes I consider Werth a “core” player as well.

  2. Phil Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 1:16 pm

    How would you make up a line up if you have Holliday in it? Bat him 4th to separate Utley and Howard?

  3. Dennis Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 1:17 pm

    By the way, did anyone see that they are having a “one night only” in theatres on Monday the 24th, the story of the 2008 world champion Phillies! I got tickets to the show at the Bridge Cinema Delux downtown where they are having a red carpet special with the trophy and everyone that attends gets a copy of the DVD. Going to be a good time I think….

  4. Geoff Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 1:18 pm

    If youre talking having to guve up marson, carrasco, shane or werth, then no freakin way. if you can get them to settle for a golson happ type of deal then it would maybe be worth looking into.

  5. Griffin Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 1:22 pm

    Carrasco is a #3 or #4 starter and Marson is a nice OBP Catcher and good defender who may make an all-star game or 2. There are no Utleys, Howards or Hamels in our minor league system. Jason Donald is a nice player, but he’s a 2B and won’t hit enough to merit playing 3B everyday.

    Carrasco, Taylor and Donald for one year of Holliday and 2 early draft picks (once Holliday leaves). Would everyone do that trade?

  6. Johnny Snowden Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 1:27 pm

    not for one of if not thee top pitching prospect in the league … no.

  7. JimC Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 1:30 pm

    Donald doesn’t have enough power to play third? But pedro feliz does? I like donald I think he will be fine and if he doesn’t hit the home runs and knock in the rbis from third their getting the production from a non power position of 2nd base

  8. Griffin Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 1:31 pm

    There is NO way that Carrasco is a top 3 pitching prospect in the league. I like him too, but he’s not a top 40 prospect in all of baseball right now. I’m not even sure I would make this move, but Carrasco is not a future ace (unfortunately).

  9. Geoff Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 1:33 pm

    NO…the whole point of getting a LF to replace burrell is to buy TWO years for matthew taylor to be ready in the first place!!!!!!!! thats your LF of the future. trading him for one year of holliday, AND trading carrasco (2 or 3 starter at worst once he reaches his prime) for ONE year of one guy is just absolutely a horrible idea. maybe if they signed japense prospect junichi tazawa itd make the trade more bearable to replace carrasco as the top pitching prospect, but sitll…no

    im talking JA Happ, Greg Golson, and filler for holliday. but the rockies wont do that so time to stop this nonsensical talk and get on to another player of interest.

  10. Griffin Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 1:34 pm

    My point about Donald is that he’s more valuable to another team than he would be to the Phillies because he can play 2B, a position where defense is a priority and any above average hitting is a bonus.
    It’s like having a two really good hitting catchers and making one of them a 1B. Wouldn’t it make sense to trade one of the catchers to another team and get some pitching or something? Donald is much more valuable as a 2B than he is as a 3B. He should be a good average hitter with some (but not a lot) of power.

  11. Geoff Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 1:35 pm

    I heard the phillies are trying to pry matt cain away from the giants (hence the j-roll trade talk) so i wouldnt go getting rid of donald too fast.
    though that rumor might be as ridiculous as the holliday rumors.

  12. Manny Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 1:47 pm

    Well, Tim, did you factor in the fact that he would only be A ONE YEAR RENTAL!?!??!?!?!

    No way, No Holliday! They will want Victorino or Werth or at least 2 prospects… NO WAY!

  13. pb Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 1:48 pm

    hey tim,

    Not sure if you heard yet, the Phillies announced some Front Office moves

    http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20081107&content_id=3669874&vkey=pr_phi&fext=.jsp&c_id=phi

  14. Mike T. Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 2:08 pm

    apparently the cardinals are willing to give up ryan ludwick in the package. already their deal seems to hold more value than ours.

  15. Griffin Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 2:12 pm

    If the Rockies think Ludwick is going to repeat his career year, then they are more stupid than I thought. Ludwick is a fluke. Great job by the Cardinals on selling high.

  16. Geoff Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 2:14 pm

    Even if ludwick turn out to be a fraud too, I agree that right now their package has more value. because im sure amaro told them hands off victorino and werth. without those two they would NOT have even got to the WS.

  17. Geoff Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 2:15 pm

    well…in the way that they did

  18. Dennis Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 2:16 pm

    Ryan Ludwick is a one year wonder! He is going to be 31 by next season….Rockies are trying to stabilize their future, how does their deal hold more value?

  19. Griffin Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 2:19 pm

    I agree Dennis, I’m not sure why the Rockies would want a 31 year old outfielder who no one had heard of before this year.

  20. Mike T. Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 2:19 pm

    it holds more value because there’s no way amaro offers victorino or werth. it’s going to be any combo of carrasco, golson, marson, happ with whoever else you can think of.

    THAT’S why it holds more value, dennis.

  21. Dennis Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 2:20 pm

    But this trade is for their future Mike T. I don’t understand why they would want a 31 yr. old one year wonder?

  22. Griffin Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 2:26 pm

    If they trade Holliday for Ludwick, that’s a joke. If you trade your best player, then you should go into rebuilding mode and plan for the future. How does taking away Holliday and adding Ludwick make that team better? How are they going to contend? I don’t get it.

  23. dan da man Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 2:28 pm

    Look lets face it…This is just rumors were talking about! The sh*t isn’t going down…PERIOD…I knew it the instant Vic, and Werths name was mentioned. I was just reading the Mets blogs, and there all hoping we make the trade, because apparently one year of Holliday would scare them less, than never having to deal with Victorino again. Vic is nat to other teams, and there right! It’s like owning a dream house, and giving it away just to rent and live in another for one for a year…Just doesn’t make sense.

  24. Chris.I Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 2:33 pm

    Well said Dan. If the trade doesn’t involve ”prospects” alone, than this is clearly not for us. Amaro should just move on, and go after pitching, cause there is nothing else out there thats too appealing right now. Everything else is like you said…why rent a dream house when you already have one..well said my man.

  25. Mike T. Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 2:35 pm

    dennis, i don’t know what to tell you. ask charlie or mac.

  26. dan Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 2:41 pm

    tim, i don’t think it’s coors field. yes, it used to be a hitters park, but it is no longer.

    http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/08/17/sports/ROCKIES.php

    If you don’t have time to read that, it explains that the Rockies organization bought a machine to keep the balls damp because of the thin, dry air there. Since this machine started being used, Coors has become a pitchers park.

  27. Johnny Snowden Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 2:41 pm

    Griffen, just FYI … Baseball America ranked Carrasco 17th overall pitching prospect in 2008. Considering the 36+ innings pitched, 1.72 era, and 11.2 K’s per 9 in. for the Iron Pigs this year and the already dominant start hes having to with the Venezuelan Winter League (19 in 2.84 era), how does he exactly drop to below 40? I still don’t get why anyone would think to even consider giving him up for Holliday and yet another reason to interact with Scott Boras.

  28. dan Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 2:42 pm

    So my point is that your 1992 stats are kinda meaningless.

  29. Richie Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 2:43 pm

    Ludwick makes no sense whatsoever, they would get an older player signed for a year and half the talent. Why not keep Holliday? I say ship Happ, kendrick, golson, drabek, any of that combination and see what holds water. What do ya think about trading Ruiz for him, Holliday, although he is a rental, is in a contract year and could absolutley solidify a solid lineup. Ok, so Ruiz had a good postseason, right, so sell high on him. How many people were looking for Marson to take over on opening day ‘09. That he calls a good game BS is exactly that, I heard Marson calls a good game too. Look at Ruiz’ production in the regular season, Marson can’t atleast duplicate that. Happ and Ruiz probably get the deal done. I’d do it.

  30. Griffin Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 2:45 pm

    Snowdin, everything I have read says he’s a future #3 starter. My point is that he’s not going to be an ace. I never said I would trade him for Holliday, I’m just trying to keep people’s expectations of him realistic. He’s not a top 3 pitching prospect.

  31. Mike T. Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 2:46 pm

    happ, kendrick, eaton, condrey and dobbs. BOOM, see ya. get holliday his jersey.

  32. Griffin Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 2:46 pm

    Why would the Rockies want a 30 year old catcher?

  33. Griffin Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 2:47 pm

    And the Rockies have a very good catching prospect as well. They’re trying to get rid of Torrealba to make room for their prospect.

  34. Johnny Snowden Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 2:47 pm

    “calls a good game BS” ???? id say that the phillies team ERA being 3.68 with Ruiz behind the plate and 4.77 without him for the 2008 regular season isn’t exactly BS.

  35. Chris.I Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 2:50 pm

    The Rockies have iannetta and torrealba in the backstop..I don’t think either Ruiz or Marson would be needed. There looking to move both Holliday, and Taveras, and they would be asking for an OF to replace either one…Plus pitching! Trust me! This isn’t going to happen.

  36. Phillies Phan SC Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 2:51 pm

    First, might I say you have a lot of time on your hands LOL. Second, great job on it, seriously. I also agree, we HAVE to keep the core of the team in tact. Happ has his ring, I would be willing to trade him, but NOT Vic or Werth. I also do not agree to trade Kendrick. I think he is up and coming and has a future.

  37. Griffin Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 2:51 pm

    Chooch is a great caller of the game and will be our starter in ‘09.

    No one wants Kendrick. Eaton has negative value. The Phillies could not give him away right now. No one wants to trade their superstar for our slop.

  38. Johnny Snowden Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 2:54 pm

    fair enough griffen, about carassco. we dont wanna turn him into another Gavin Floyd. And yeah … the Rockies are not going to want another catcher … they’ve been trying to dump Torrealba for two years now. The only reason they signed him last offseason was becuase they thought they were going to make the playoffs on 08.

    either way, i think the point is that the phillies are going to wait to see what kind of offers Burrell is going to get and see if they can match it and afford him. If not, i gotta go with Hairston Jr. This is low-risk high potential that makes me a lot more comfortable that this joke of a trade rumor with holliday.

  39. The Voice of Reason Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 2:55 pm

    I think most of would agree that Pat Burrell is the best option on the table right now for LF. 3 years 33 million get it done?

  40. Richie Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 2:58 pm

    Their superstar that they won’t have in a year. The point is everyone wants to crown ruiz this great game caller, so is Marson. Ruiz was going to be battling for a job next year he has a good not great month, albeit the postseason and now he’s Pudge Rodriguez. Wake up, he will be hitting .210 come June and Marson gets his shot. Mark my words. How many people on this site were calling for Coste to get the majority of the starts and then when Marson was on a fast track they wanted him in there. You can’t hit .210 in the major leagues, I don’t care what game ya call.

  41. Johnny Snowden Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 3:00 pm

    does anyone know what teams might try and make a play for burrell? I’m thinking maybe the Angels if they can’t bring back Juan Rivera or Teixeira.

  42. dan Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 3:00 pm

    a lineup without either pat the bat or holliday sounds ugly

  43. Chris.I Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 3:01 pm

    Being realistic here, If the Phillies dont pick up either Holliday, or Burrell. I think there probably going to go with Rivera, and maybe Lowe. It would be the smartest thing to do if we wanted to save our farm system.

  44. Richie Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 3:07 pm

    Before every game there is a strategy in place to face a lineup, the pitcher and catcher know this ahead of time. The catcher calls the pitch, but the pitcher has to agree and more importantly execute and command the pitch. Do ya think that has something to do with them being the best pitching staff in the league, Maybe?

  45. Johnny Snowden Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 3:08 pm

    okay ritchie … let’s say we give it a shot and you prove us all wrong and marson gets his start with a manager who prefers veterens and a pitching staff with very few innings with him. You’d seriously trade three or four base hits a week for almost 2 more runs allowed per game?

    Mark my words… without Ruiz, Hamels doesnt come close to the kind of season he had, myers would be hangin out with eaton and moyer retires last season, and lidge leaves his lights on.

    I love marson and he needs to get some at bats definately… but i think everybody agrees that the kid needs to prove himself beyond AAA with a last or mid season call up before he’s even considered to take Ruiz’ job.

  46. Johnny Snowden Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 3:10 pm

    a job by the way that won us a world championship.

  47. Griffin Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 3:10 pm

    Ruiz helps the pitching staff more than he hurts the lineup.

  48. Johnny Snowden Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 3:12 pm

    i couldnt agree more griffen

  49. Johnny Snowden Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 3:16 pm

    And does anyone have a clue what they’re gonna do with Eaton? Pay him his 6 or 8 mil to be the opening day starter for the Allentown Iron Pigs?

  50. Richie Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 3:16 pm

    Wait a second, Hamels isn’t Hamels without Ruiz, Moyer who has been pitching for 30 years can’t pitch without Ruiz, are you kidding me???? I like Ruiz, I was screaming Choooch at every playoff game, but you have to give something up to get something. People are high on Ruiz right now, but we know the real Ruiz. We don’t know the real Marson yet. He has caught Carrasco and Happ, he has a good mentor in Coste, he is a better defensive catcher. What if he turns out to be a Mauer or McCann? Ruiz is not responsible for 2.00 in ERA for our staff, I am a Ruiz fan, but sell high on these guys, you can tell Marson’s a ballplayer. Take a shot, I’ll call the game wih Hamels, and tell me how you pitch around Utley, Holliday then Howard with Rollins and Vic on base. That isn’t an easy task now is it?

  51. Griffin Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 3:20 pm

    Ruiz’s best asset right now is “possesses a high comfort level with the Phillies pitchers”. How does this help the Rockies? Ruiz is more valuable to the Phils than he is to another team. Colorado doesn’t want him, but the Phillies pitchers do.

  52. Richie Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 3:20 pm

    I heard someone come up with an idea of swapping cancers with the Dodgers and taking Andruw Jones here and giving them Eaton. With LA eating the differnce in salaries, I wouldn’t be opposed to that.

  53. RichieAllen Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 3:21 pm

    I didnt think so at first….but I now agree with The Voice of Reason…..our best bet is to sign Burrell,keep the team intact with its chemistry..Please dont screw around with even thinking about trading Vic or Werth.
    I dont even want to trade Happ,he looked so good this year,I’m dying to see what he can do.
    If it aint broke ,dont fix it

  54. Johnny Snowden Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 3:22 pm

    all im sayin ritchie is that Hamels’ era goes up by almost two runs without ruiz, moyers walk ratio almost doubles and coste just proved how good ruiz is at catching lidge’s slider. I’m not saying you absolutely wrong … iim not saying not ever, im just saying not now. isnt it good pitching that beats good hitting? and all the numbers say out pitchers are better with ruiz.

  55. Richie Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 3:23 pm

    All eyes are on the postseaon everyone saw Ruiz shining, there are teams out there I am sure that want him. My point is that if we know his real potential and have a stud waiting behind him, why not take a shot and get a decent player in return before he goes back to hitting .200.

  56. Johnny Snowden Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 3:27 pm

    only time will tell richie … i just cant wait for these four months of hell to be over with and the sun to come back out.

  57. Matt Kwasiborski Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 3:29 pm

    No way would I turn over a WS rotation to a rookie catcher unless it was a Joe Mauer type prospect. Marson is a prospect alright and he did hit a HR in his first start in MLB but he isn’t Johnny Bench Jr. He needs at least a half or 3/4 season at AAA before you turn over a major league staff to him.

    Ruiz also struggled at the plate this year but came up big with the bat in the playoffs. The stage doesn’t get any brighter. I say Ruiz will come back offensively with all the confidence he has now after being arguably the playoff MVP for the world champions.

  58. Richie Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 3:46 pm

    Again guys, I like Ruiz, but everyone wants to talk trades and assume that no one outside of Eaton and Golson are touchable. I understand we all are excited about the World Series, I;m drinking the Kool-Aid too, but we have a need in LF, and out of all of the guys on our team who are somewhat touchable, Ruiz is a sell high guy right now. I mean you are asking for Matt Holliday, they come back and say Vic, of course we say no way, then they say Werth, I hesitate, and come back with Happ, they say Carrasco, personally, I don’t think we get Holliday, but we can get a solid LF for Ruiz right now and he is the only touchable piece with value outside of maybe Dobbs. YOU HAVE to give something to get something. I agree with you snowden about the trust and the relationship stuff that our staff has established with Ruiz, but you have to take chances sometimes and he seems like a piece we might be able to expend that’s all.

  59. Griffin Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 3:49 pm

    Richie, I hear your point and don’t disagree with selling high on players. But, I think that teams would rather trade for a young Marson who would be under team control for years rather than a 30 year-old Ruiz.
    Holliday is very good and I’m hoping we can get him for a package of Donald/Taylor and something else.

  60. Georgie Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 3:51 pm

    Hey Richie, why don’t you ask Brad Lidge if HE cares who calls his game? The pitching staff performed above and beyond all of our expectations, why would you even think of messing with their favorite catcher?

    Jesus, just sign Burrell, he wants to be here, and go after another starting pitcher. Let’s face it, Hamels is the only one we can be certain of, so that needs to be addressed.

  61. Amanda Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 4:02 pm

    I say we do it. If we can work out a deal without giving up Marson and Victorino, do it. I’d give up Werth, Happ, or Kendrick for Holliday. I dont want to give up Carrasco, but for Holliday, I could live with it.

  62. timb Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 4:25 pm

    Time for Burrell to move on. I love that man. And his dog. But he should go.

  63. Matt Kwasiborski Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 4:51 pm

    If Burrell were willing to take a significant pay cut, then sign him. But how do you tell a guy who hits 30+ HR and 85+ RBIs and won a WS to take a pay cut?

  64. mikemike Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 5:04 pm

    Because he was overpaid at 14 million dollars a year. He has to realize that.

  65. Rick Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 8:13 pm

    I really think that resigning Burrell is the way to go. Holliday will just be a rental for one year, as stated by everyone, but more importantly you know what you get from Burrell. You know it’s 31 hr/95 rbi/.253/ walks out the ass and fielding replacement in the 7th inning. Holliday’s numbers away from Coors Field aren’t as big to me as much as what we would be giving up. I’d rather not trade Victorino or Werth, as both of those players have room to improve and become better. (if I could make a plea for Jason to take the next month off, and then live in the batting cage having the machine throw him breaking pitches low and inside until spring training starts) Marson seems to be the future catcher for this team, Carrasco and Donald are interesting b/c you have the Phils PR people pumping up Carrasco like he’s a “can’t miss” guy and Donald had a nice Olympics, but is stuck behind the current infield. Trying to make him into a 3B player, he’s got some work to do and I don’t know if he can.

    I know that Pat wants a fourth year. I hope that the “home town discount” is something that is in his wheelhouse, b/c I think that we could get him for 3/36.

    One more thing to throw out, I brought this up today at work. Jamie wants a third year, and the Phils (which I agree) would only want two. what about a mutual option for a third year if Moyer pitches 375+ innings over the next two years. If he does, then he gets the power to call the third year, if not, then the Phils do. I don’t think he’ll want more than the 6M/year he’s getting now.

  66. Phillies Phan SC Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 10:20 pm

    Richie – Eaton for Jones, I’ll take that. We can use a platoon outfield if Burrell does not re-sign. Jones has ability, just had a bad year. If you are concerned about the pay difference we could have thrown Tom Gordon in it for them – not now though.

    Rick – You should be the GM. I like the option for Moyer; and I think he will re-sign. I think Junior will have to give in because a good pitcher like Moyer is much cheaper than a replacement. I also think Pat would give a hometown discount. I really think he wants to stay, but he wants to see what he can get first. I may be wrong on both counts – perhaps it is hope.

  67. Phillies Phan SC Says:
    November 7th, 2008 at 10:23 pm

    JUST FYI –

    MLB.com is ALSO now reporting that the Cards and Rox are talking about Lugwig and Holliday. So we may not even have to worry about losing Vic and Werth.

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Mike Zagurski - $392,500
Fabio Castro - $383,000
J.D. Durbin - $380,000
Anderson Garcia - $380,000
Scott Mathieson - $380,000
J.A. Happ - $380,000
Yoel Hernandez - $380,000
Scott Mathieson - $380,000
Chris Roberson - $380,000
Brian Sanches - $380,000
Zach Segovia - $380,000
Matt Smith - $380,000
Joe Thurston - $380,000

Phillies Contracts and Salaries

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