Howard Or Pujols? For MVP, It’s Clear

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Mon, November 17, 2008 09:00 AM

Two years ago Ryan Howard — prime slugger on a non-playoff team — defeated Albert Pujols — prime slugger on a World Series champion — for National League Most Valuable Player.

Well, what do you know.

Two years later, and the roles are reversed. In fact, the 2008 Cardinals finished 86-76, just one game better than those 2006 Phils, at 85-77. Weird, eh? But what matters is Howard and Pujols are battling for NL MVP yet again. This time they have interesting competition — Manny Ramirez, who made a bandit’s run with the Dodgers; David Wright, who had another sparkling season; CC Sabathia, who pitched the Brewers into the postseason; Lance Berkman, the prodigious slugger who never gets enough due; Chipper Jones, who hit the heck out of the ball for a few months; and Hanley Ramirez, the all-world shortstop coming into his own. But I don’t think the competition will win — seriously, this one is purely Pujols.

We can hope for a Howard win, but the numbers tell you everything. Pujols hit .357 and drove in 116 runs, collecting a .462 on-base percentage. Yes, he almost reached base half the time. Like Howard, he did have teammates who drove in some runs, but when you factor in Pujols’ two injuries — a calf that sidelined him two weeks, and an elbow that should’ve sidelined him all season — and look at his still outstanding numbers, you can’t deny the man.

But if you need figures, here’s some statistical analysis. I have two formulas that determine a player’s value. One is SSR (subjective statistical record), which looks at numbers that most average fans consider relevant; the other is OSR (objective statistical record), which looks at numbers that stat-friendly fans consider relevant. Here are those numbers:

Howard SSR : .251 AVG / 48 HR / 1 SB / 105 R / 146 RBI / 92 WINS = 4.08086 SSR
Pujols SSR : .357 AVG / 37 HR / 7 SB / 100 R / 116 RBI / 86 WINS = 4.08765 SSR

SSR looks at your garden-variety numbers and team wins. I developed the formula to think as a sportswriter voting for MVP would think — offense is important, hard numbers are major, team performance must be factored. Each stat is multiplied by a variable to create a total, which is then divided by 162, the overall constant. An SSR of over 4.00 is elite. Pujols won by a hair — just to add, David Wright had about a 4.06, Manny Ramirez finished just over 4.00.

Howard OSR : 413 TB+ / 105 R / 146 RBI / 475 OUTS = 2.15 OSR
Pujols OSR : 453 TB+ / 100 R / 116 RBI / 364 OUTS = 2.283 OSR

OSR looks at numbers according to plate appearances. Here, I take total bases and add walks and stolen bases, and also use runs, runs batted in and outs, to show how much a hitter accomplishes in his at bats. An OSR of over 2.00 is elite. Pujols wins again. And to add, Ramirez actually finished ahead of Howard with a 2.21 OSR, while Wright had a 2.086 OSR.

So to both your average sportswriter and your statistically-minded fan, Pujols had the superior year. Playoff team or not, the guy clearly deserves the award.

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48 Responses to “Howard Or Pujols? For MVP, It’s Clear”

  1. Tom G Says:

    Pujols had a remarkable year, and clearly has the advantage in impact per your statistics…but two things. 1) too many writers are dopes…2) they are grooved by big production on HR/RBI…old school fools…
    I would be interested to see a breakdown of HR/RIB and hits in close games, to help determine impact in WINS…but I have not a problem with pujols getting it

  2. Eric R Says:

    Pujols helped his team to come in 4th. Would they have come in 6th without him? When Howard won in ‘06, the Phils came in 2nd and were in it right up to the end. Stats are not the whole picture but I think one of the most telling ones is Howard set a 125 year old team record for most RBIs in a month in the most important month to do it.

  3. Phillies Phan SC Says:

    I am pulling for Howard; but I think Puljols is more deserving…

  4. Phillies Phan SC Says:

    Typo – Pujols

  5. NJ Says:

    I’m pulling for Pujols, inspite of the injuries he would have had monster numbers if pitchers hadn’t spent so much time pitching around him and that wasn’t something Howard faced. Howard had one monster month but on the whole were condoning a pretty poor season where Howard regressed as a played on both sides of the coin. Teams didn’t even want to pitch Pujols even when he looked really hurt whereas even average pitchers attacked Howard all year long.

    Pujols deserves the MVP award because he’s a complete player his opponents fear, Howard could be a great player but right now he’s just a hit and miss bopper regressing in every other area of the game.

  6. Maverick Says:

    look at all of you closet Cardinal fans… you should be ashamed. Whats with this Pujols love fest?

    Howard deserves the award and should get it.

    Howard clearly has more RBI’s. I would like to know how many men Pujols has left on base.

  7. Maverick Says:

    btw what time are they accouncing this?

  8. NJ Says:

    Howard doesn’t deserve it purely because he has more longballs and rbi’s, had Pujols had seen the number of strikes Howard had he would have dwarfed Howards number, had Howard not been so incredibly poor situationally (can’t just look at RISP in situationals) he would have had better numbers and one good month stopped him from his average being in utility bat territory. Doesn’t matter if your leading the league in solo shots if your average in that situation makes the mendoza line look good. Ryan was great when he connected but in almost every game he was fooled by average breaking stuff and couldn’t catch up to the fastball inside unless he was cheating on it which is why bad pitchers could throw junk out of zone and routinely put him in pitchers counts.

    Pure and simple pitchers respected the threat of Pujols all year long which is why he say a record percentage of balls, I know it’s not relevant to the MVP vote but even in the WS Howard pitchers weren’t respecting Howard and it was indicitive or his season, player of the month for September but not much more.

  9. Dice Says:

    Winning just because he has prettier numbers is just wrong.

  10. PhillyGirlinMichigan Says:

    I believe Pujols deserves it – both with his more consistan offense and defense.

    I saw too many routine play blunders causing our pitchers to have to throw more pitches…and way too many predictable strike-outs to say Howard was an MVP. Did he have a big role down the stretch – yes definately, but so did others on the team. Someone always seemed to step up, not only at the end, but all during the season. The Phillies team was MVP of the league, IMHO.

  11. Craig Says:

    Pujols without a doubt. Howard didn’t show up for several months this season.

  12. Robbi P Says:

    Howard has a ring, doesn’t need another MVP, though it would be nice, I doubt he’ll care, he’s a World Phucking Champion. haha that will never get old. Pujols played injured too for the entire year. He’s a good guy unlike Manny and his attitude.

  13. Manny Says:

    Howard had a great September… but seriously, I wouldn’t even say he is our team MVP for 2008, so would should he be the NL MVP?

  14. Manny Says:

    *Howard had a great September… but seriously, I wouldn’t even say he is our team MVP for 2008, so why should he be the NL MVP?

  15. GOOSEBUMPS Says:

    Pujols had a great year and of course I am biased in saying that I think Howard deserves it. The main thing that makes me choose him though is not only is he a Phillie, but Howard had a few points during the season (especially the end) where he took the team by the hand and led them to victory. That to ME is a player most valued. Maybe not the best in the league, but a player on team who, if the team did not have him, would not have succeeded.

  16. MikeMc26 Says:

    How do the AB’s stack up between Howard and Pujols? Pujols missed some pretty good time didn’t he? Same thing with Chipper, the reason Larry was hittin over .400 in the late spring is because he missed a ton of games.

  17. Tim Malcolm Says:

    Pujols missed like 10-15 games, if that. Howard had about 700 plate appearances, while Pujols had about 650.

  18. Chutley Says:

    when you lead the league in two of the three triple crown categories how do you not win.

  19. Griffin Says:

    Howard isn’t even the most valuable player on the right side of the Phillies infield. He had a remarkable September, but don’t the games in April and May count as much as those in September?
    Howard had an amazing September and a mediocre rest of the year. Still a very good slugger, but Pujols is the man.

    Pujols should get it, but I think Howard will get it.

  20. Don M Says:

    I just flew home from my Honeymoon in Acapulco.. and BOY ARE MY ARMS TIRED!!!

    …no but seriously.. I’ve been away for a while.. got to see the Phillies win the World Series, the next night was my wedding Rehersal, the day after that was the Phillies parade, the day after that was my Wedding (yes, they played We Are the Champions at the reception!!)… and then Monday 11-3-08 we left for Acapulco.. just got home Friday at like 2am, back to work today

    What a GREAT month, year, life.. this has been.. I’m still on cloud nine!

    ….

    anyway.. Pujols-Howard… the problem with this award is how can a guy win the MVP when his team doesn’t even make the Playoffs? Well, the same way Howard won it in 2006, Pujols should win it this year… clearly he had a better season, numbers wise

  21. Chutley Says:

    The games in September do count more than they do in April or May. And you get on him for not showing up half the season, but he still led the league in home runs and rbi’s. he didn’t hit em all in September

  22. DAVE HARRIS JR Says:

    ITS IS A NO BRAINER ITS HOWARD IN A LANDSIDE.

  23. Griffin Says:

    Wait, why do games in September count more than those in April or May?

  24. Mazinman Says:

    I’m one of those who believe that the MVP is not the best player in baseball but the one who helped his team the most. With that in mind I ask myself where would the Phillies and Cardinals be without Howard and Pujols respectively.

    Philles – Without Howard providing a spark late in the season the Phillies do not make the post-season.

    Cardinals – They finished 4th in their division a good 12 games ahead of the Reds. So, without Pujols, I think they end up in 4th place anyway. Maybe not by as many games over the Reds as they ended up being but still in 4th.

    The way I see it Howard had a direct impact on the final standing on his team in the regular season while Pujols did not. That makes Howard the MVP in my book.

  25. From Section 113 Says:

    This is going to be very close I think. Pujols did his thing all year while Howard really struggled.

    I wonder if Howard batted .275-.280ish would there be any doubt?

    But he hit so pooryl for so long, I think Pujols’ wins in one of the closest MVP races ever.

  26. Griffin Says:

    On a separate note, will Howard winning a 2nd MVP today affect his arbitration number? I’m sure it will drive his price up a bit, but by how much?

  27. MikeMc26 Says:

    Thanks for looking up those AB stats Tim, I posted while I was heading out the door for class. Guess it was closer than i thought. Gonna be a close one, we’ll see what happens at 2pm.

  28. From Section 113 Says:

    At least $1 Million, because that would be 3 awards in a row

  29. RichieAllen Says:

    Despite his numbers,with Pujols….the Cards didnt win anything last year..
    But without Howard at times during the season and especially in september (when it counted),the Phils wouldnt have won the division.
    (and then the series).

    So what is the definition of MVP?I say the above statement is all you need.

  30. Don M Says:

    I don’t think the MVP will impact arbitration numbers… but whenever he signs a Free Agent contract, or an extension.. THAT is when the MVP, HR-crowns, etc.. that all comes into play. He leads MLB in HR over the past 3 years by a big margin, I think he leads in RBIs too over that span..

    He can MASH the ball, but he’ll always strike out a ton too.. this year he’ll probably ask for $15+, and the Phillies will offer $12 ???… my guess is that he wins that $15, or they settle somewhere around that figure if he asks for more to begin with.

    I understand everyone wants Howard to win the MVP, and without his huge September the Phillies don’t make the playoffs… BUT.. we were on the reverse side of this same arguement in 2006, when the Cards made the playoffs, we didn’t..but Howard won it anyway… Pujols’ numbers are SICK..

    If you added Pujols to our team with those stats, we win the NL East by 10 games.. add Howard to the Cards and they aren’t any better.. In that sense, Pujols was the MORE VALUABLE PLAYER this year.. I’d expect him to take the award, I’d be shocked if he didn’t.. AND, I hope I’m wrong!

  31. Griffin Says:

    Don M, I agree completely with everything you just said. Nicely done.

  32. Chutley Says:

    they count more because Howard is talked about as an MVP because of what he did when it mattered, Sept. Utley, and Burrell aren’t even mentioned. nobody remembers April, Griff

  33. Griffin Says:

    ok, I hear ya, the stats in September do count more, but I’m saying that they SHOULD NOT count more. I agree that voters look at things like that and discard the beginning of the year, but we know better.
    I still think Howard will win it.

  34. RichieAllen Says:

    The arguments above really have me thinking about one thing…Is there a definite description of the MVP award and what it means anywhere in the baseball annals?

    I’m sure its been done before, but before Don M reversed the players on each other’s teams….I cant say I’ve ever heard that method before.

  35. Don M Says:

    Thats the thing, is that there is no clear definition… In my opinion, you are more valuable if your team makes the playoffs, BUT.. since baseball is such a team-sport, one player has no real say as to how good his team is or not…

    Steve Carlton comes to mind… with a 27 win season for a team that only won 59 games!!!

    But I just think that Pujols is a superior player, and although he didn’t make the playoffs, he had a better season as an individual than Ryan Howard. And I honestly think that if we had Pujols instead of Howard at 1st base, we would have CRUSHED the entire National League, instead of just SMACKING them around!!!

    …BUT, again, I understand how people think Howard should win it, I personally would vote for Pujols 1st, Howard 2nd if I was a voter.

  36. RichieAllen Says:

    Thats why this blog is so much fun….I think Pujols is a better player too.
    But I’m not sure he was most valuable to his team.

    I have to compliment you though,Don M …the player reversal thing was different.I’ve been a baseball fan for a long time and never heard that one.It does make sense.

  37. Dennis Says:

    Cardinals would probably be in last place without Pujols

  38. From Section 113 Says:

    Dennis- Have you watched the Pirates lately? And you could save a certain pitching coach is more valuable to that team than Pujols, because how that staff managed through all those injuries is beyond me.

    Don- I think MVP absolutely plays into arbitration. When they go to abr, the agent for Howard is going to say (if he wins) we have here a ROY, and 2-time MVP winner in his 1st 3 yrs, he should be paid accordingly. If he doesn’t use this route he should be fired as an agent.

    And guess what? Howard will win his arbitration case. Unless he’s asking for anything north of $15, he’s going to win. Because in the end, they will bring up his HRs, RBIs, and ect, and are the Phills to say, “Well his HRs are inflated because of OUR park. His MVP really wasn’t deserved because Pujols was better.”

    You don’t think there will be pressure from Fehr to get Howard a BIG raise in arb of he wins this MVP? If you don’t than you are just being foolish.

    I guess Howard can say, “Well Hamels didn’t deserve the WS MVP over me, so let’s just call it even”

    The arguement of him getting a bigger contract if he’s a 2-time MVP doesn’t hold as much wait because in FA, the bidding wars themselves will just drive up the price. Here in arbitration the price only goes up if the agent makes his case sound and the judges agree with it.

  39. MP Says:

    I completely agree with whoever said that MVP does not mean best player in baseball, but most valued to the team. Yeah Howard had record strikeouts, but without his MVP leading HRs and RBIs – we wouldn’t have made the post season – let alone the WS. I think Pujols is great, but being an MVP is showing up when your team needs it the most – and Howard did exactly that, while leading the majors.

  40. Lewisauce Says:

    FYI, the dipshits at FoxSports don’t even have Howard as a top-five contender for the MVP.

    I think Pujols should get it. He’s the best all-around player in the game, and he had the best all-around year in the game. Defense has to count at least a little bit in the MVP race, and Howard is a bona-fide liability, while Pujols is one of the best at his position in MLB.

  41. Don M Says:

    Yea I hear you, Sec113… I just mean that in arbitration its the STATS, more than the names and awards and stuff..

    Because the Phillies say you’re worth (my guess is $12M)…and Howard will want somewhere closer to 18-20… they’ll settle somewhere around $15M, because that is his true value. Nobody is going to award him more than $15M in arbitration just because his HRs and RBIs are that high… they’ll see his high totals in Errors, K’s, and a low battings average too…

    So expect them to settle his contract before he gets to arbitration this year, becuase the Phillies will offer him a raise from last year anyway.

    Awards mean more in Free Agency, because everyone else bases their contracts off of the top-players, and the top-players salaries are based around how dominant they are (what hardware they’ve won).. because that gets the media going.. Arbitration is ruled upon after a hearing that goes on the stats, and each side presents their case. I don’t think the Phillies want to go to Arb with him again this year, so I expect them to settle

  42. Griffin Says:

    Well, Pujols won the MVP.

  43. From Section 113 Says:

    Don- You can throw as many stats out at me, but if you have a guy in his first 3 years and is ALWAYS a perennial MVP canidate, as a judge, that’s what I am hearing over and over. Plus MVP awards are nice, but did when Howard gets his big pay day it won’t be because of all his MVP(s), it will be because of his HRs and RBIs. Because 1+ MVPs don’t sound as nice as a 50 HR threat every year OR 140+ RBIs every year. But in arbitration, when the player has to scrape for his money, he will use every intangible he has.

    So I guess, Lincecum won’t get a ton of money come arbitration time? Betcha he gets more money than anyone before him maybe save for Hamels.

    Why? Because of his Cy Young.

  44. Don M Says:

    Ha.. we’re really having a non-arguement…. Lincecum isn’t going to get a ton of money BECAUSE he won the Cy Young… he’ll get a ton of money because he has the STATS that won him the Cy Young….. Same with Howard… the actual title of MVP doesn’t mean anything at the table because its something that is voted on by baseball writers, its the actual stats that they look at, not the hardware.

    The fact that he didn’t win the MVP won’t earn him any less money in arbitration, just the same way I didn’t think an MVP would earn him more..

    But I seriously hear what you are saying, and the average of 45+ HRs and 135+ RBIs… that puts him in a catergory with Bonds, Babe Ruth and stuff… BUT.. my Pujols comments were based on the fact that Pujols also pounds the ball above-average for power, and hit .100 points higher in batting average than Howard, .100 is a LOT

  45. Tim Malcolm Says:

    My thought on all this:

    With Pujols, the Cardinals had far and away the best average in the NL. They lacked pitching. That’s why they didn’t make the playoffs: Consistent pitching.

    Pujols has tremendous value on the Cardinals. If you take Pujols off that team and add Howard, it’s probably a win or three worse. And if you take Howard off the Phils and add Pujols, the Phils win the East by five or six games.

  46. t Says:

    Bottom line, Howard isn’t even the most valuable player on his own team. Pujols deserves it this year, no doubt about it.

  47. Frank Says:

    Does anybody else want Milton Bradley in left?

  48. » Pujols Beats Out Howard for NL MVP | Blogging-Baseball.com Says:

    [...] PhilliesNation’s Tim Malcolm provides additional interesting stats and background to back up the fact that Pujols clearly deserved the award. [...]

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