With Ordonez, Risks Outweight Benefits
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Wed, November 05, 2008 02:57 PM
Now that Magglio Ordonez has been pulled out, let’s look at him a little further.
He does make much more sense than Matt Holliday, who will be a free agent after 2009 and command a Herculean deal. Here are the benefits of Ordonez:
- A lifetime .312 hitter who hit .363 in 2007.
- A guy who strikes out less than 80 times per season.
- A right-handed hitter who can break up Chase Utley and Ryan Howard.
- Team control possible in 2010 and 2011.
The downfalls, however, are large:
- A history of knee problems.
- $18 million the Phils would have to pay much of in 2009.
- Potential $15M in those 2010 and 2011 seasons.
According to Bless You Boys, the Tigers are trying to get relief pitching, catching and/or a shortstop. Some names I can immediately throw into the fire: Ryan Madson, Carlos Ruiz, Lou Marson, Jason Donald.
A trade for Ordonez would likely mean taking on most of his salary, plus adding either Marson or Donald. Maybe a smaller, minor league filler player, as well.
So, would eating a potential $30M through three years, plus — let’s say — Lou Marson and Antonio Bastardo be the kind of deal that we’d want?
I don’t know if that’s good. Ordonez is a skilled hitter, but the money is too large, and the Phils would still have to give the Tigers some sort of young bounty. You’re also looking at a potential injury risk with Ordonez playing everyday in left field. Would I be happy with a Rocco Baldelli out in left field? Not necessarily. But I’d be unhappier with the cost of Magglio.
30 Responses to “With Ordonez, Risks Outweight Benefits”
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November 5th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
Could Jaramillo, Condrey, Kendrick, and Hewitt get this done?
November 5th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
If the Phils (or whatever team acquires Ordonez) have to assume all or the bulk of his contract, than I doubt they’d have to give up the level of prospect you hypothesize here. (See Abreu, Bobby trade)
Furthermore, with Dobbs, Jenkins and Stairs around there’s plenty of quality depth to spell Magglio during the season and help mitigate the risk of injury.
And with only one year of his contract guaranteed, there’s no long term risk.
Doubt they’ll do it, but it looks good on paper.
November 5th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
I would doubt that the Tigers might go after Jaramillo when Marson is sitting there.
I can’t see the Phils taking on this hefty contract. And if they agree with the Tigers not to, I can’t see them giving away the prospects.
One other point I was going to make, but initially declined, is there’s no reason to go after a big name/big contract this year. None. They won the world championship. Now they can think about developing the farm system a bit more. The options are much more wide open.
November 5th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
There’s no way any team right now bites on Ordonez without the Tigers picking up at least a portion of the tab, he’s clearly available but it’s unlikely someone’s going to pony up either bluechip prospects or the full cost of his salary.
November 5th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
If we throw in Marson, there’s no way we’re eating his entire contract. Remember Abreu? That was mostly a salary dump. The phillies got rid of his entire obligation, and in return got 4 players you probably can’t remember.
I guess it will all depend on the cost…but the phillies are rich with catching, considering we have 3 catchers between the majors and triple A, not counting two frontline studs in marson and d’arnud.
I think he would make the phillies a better team…although you have a point about his knee issues.
November 5th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
Tim…. great point…….NO big name, NO big contract. That’s a trap we can’t fall into. Unfortunately, I worry about the front office’s opinion on this and what will eventually happen.
November 5th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
I just can’t give up Madson, Ruiz, Marson, or Donald…I can’t do it.
Madson now has his role, and is one of the top 3 8th inning guys in all of baseball.
Carlos might struggle at times swinging the bat, but he does a fantastic job behind the plate.
Marson could be the real deal when he is ready.
Donald could be groomed to be the 3rd baseman of the future.
I just can’t let any of them go, and pay 30 mil. for 3 years for a guy who might blow his knee out.
What will happen is they’ll sign another bench guy who is righty to platoon with Dobbs in left field if Pat doesn’t come back.
November 5th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
Just resign Pat for 3 years! This clearly seems like the best alternative so far.
November 5th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
Ryan Madson, Carlos Ruiz, Lou Marson, Jason Donald: they should all stay! We are the World Champions..we shouldn’t be giving away our talent for 1 guy.
November 5th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
If we’re going to dip heavily into the farm system, why not go for Peavey? I think I’d rather have him and a platoon situation in left field. Also, I’m not sure I buy the “no need to go after a big player” rationale. Another front-line starter, or a premium left-fielder who hits for average and doesn’t strike out (Ordonez), would make me feel a lot more confident going into next year. Shouldn’t we be in win-now mode and try to get a few more rings out of the Utley/Rollins/Howard core?
November 5th, 2008 at 4:19 pm
Sam makes a good point with the Abreu deal, if and when Ordonez moves it won’t be the suitor picking up both the tab and sending bluechip prospects, it’ll be multiple 2nd and 3rd tier guys with upside like we got in CJ Henry not guys like Lou Marson.
November 5th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
I disagree Tim. I mean, we definitely don’t want to make a move just to make a move here. However, we are now in the driver seat and players now want to play here. Besides, the only way on how to focus on the farm system is either the draft and let our FA sign elsewhere so we get draft picks in return. It sounds like you advocate letting Burrell, Moyer, Eyre walk if that is what you are thinking when you mean let us focus on the farm system.
I do agree that Burrell is the best option if we want to keep costs low. All of the other options are going to cost more or we will have to give up our top prospects in a thin farm system.
If we are going to let Burrell walk and use a platoon situation, then we need more pitching as Amaro is alluding to. I am still a dreamer but kick the tires on CC and see where that goes. If not, what about Lowe? He may be worth a commitment. But that is about all.
November 5th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
Getting Magglio is a long shot, but he’d fit beautifully in the Phils lineup. He’s been healthy the past 3 years and his splits are consistent all-around. He’d be an upgrade over Burrell and could be controlled longer than Holliday. I’d trade some package of Happ, Golson, Bruntlett, Jaramillo, Kendrick, and Donald for him.
November 5th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Ordonez is a good fit, but I don’t see the wisdom in either a) giving up one or two top prospects or b) eating 18MM per to get a guy with an injury history who is no better than Pat Burrell, who probably could be signed for 3/36 or so.
November 5th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
Ordonez name rings bigger bells than Bradley. I wouldn’t mind giving up a prospect, and spending some of that extra money we recieved from the WS to cover the $18 mil. I wouldn’t give up Madson though. Madson HAS to stay here to be our setup man. I’d def give up a prospect or 2 for him.
November 5th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
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November 5th, 2008 at 5:18 pm
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November 5th, 2008 at 5:19 pm
just in: victorino and jroll win gold gloves
November 5th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
I’m kind of in the middle here, because ”yes” I want to see a big bat to fill in for pat if he leaves, but I still think we need pitching. Exclude Sabathia though, cause he’s way beyond our price range.
November 5th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/20081105_ap_saveusfromsavedbyzerotvwatcherscomplain.html
November 5th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
I’m really shocked Shane won and Utley didn’t. I mean Shane was great, but Utley was the best defensive 2B all year. Pedro deserved a GG too.
November 5th, 2008 at 5:50 pm
Could we do something like the Red Sox, and I know it would never work because we don’t spend that kind of money but offer them:
Tigers get: Jenkins/Golson/Jaramillo/Kendrick
Phills get: Ordonez/Willis
THey would save a TON of money. A Ton. $60 Million possibly. WOW. If you are trying to rebuild the Tigers that could be huge.
Just a thought. I think we should just focus on smaller peices for the OF like Rocco though.
November 5th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
Phil,
Both Utley had 13 errors at 2b this year, and Phillips had just 7. He had almost double than Phillips. While Rollins had 7 only too. Don’t worry, he’ll win one next year =)
November 5th, 2008 at 6:27 pm
section 113 – No – no Willis!!! If the Phils get Willis, the Tigers would be forced to taked Eaton – only way….no..not even Eaton is as bad as Willis… Did any of you here see any of his games in 2008?
I have to disagree on Utley deserving a gg at 2nd base. He wasn’t nearly as sharp as Rollins defensively.
Detroit radio keeps saying Maggs will invoke his trade block…who knows…seems everyone; however, still thinks he’ll be gone by mid-year.
Madson – as much as I like him – and I do – I’m just not convinced he can keep his Sept/Oct 2008 form throughout a full year. Good thing we had a lot of depth in the BP this year while he was giving up his weekly homers in the early months. I’m thinking his stock is highest now so it would probably be a good idea to hang him out as bait if its nets somebody valuable. I’d rather trade him than Happ.
November 5th, 2008 at 8:33 pm
Tim totally disagree, you only have a couple of years left to win again. Howard and Hamels probley will leave, and we have no prospect to replace them, now is the time next three years, then you start to rebuild.
November 6th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
PhillyGirlinMichigan- Oh by no means would I want to have Willis and be burden by both Willis AND Ordonez and their contracts but I was just saying, if we took on that money we wouldn’t have to give up much.
November 6th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
Garret Anderson is a free agent left fielder.
The guy over his career averages .296, 22 HR, and over 100 RBI over the course of a 162 game season.
And he makes 3 million less per year than Burrell.
November 6th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
Garret Anderson is a lefty. We need a right handed bat.
November 6th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
Chris…Utley also had the highest +/- out of any position player in baseball. He had a 43. Phillips had a 23. That’s almost double Phillips +/-. If you actually think errors or lack of errors should win you a gold glove then that is stupid. I’d even take fielding percentage as a bigger thing than errors. how many more balls were hit to Utley than Phillips?
November 6th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
If Ordonez was 28-30, I’d say make the deal, but he is not . . .