Phillies Nation

46 Responses to “Thoughts On Derek Lowe”

1. Greg V. Says:
   December 5th, 2008 at 10:37 am

   It’s impossible for me to not welcome Derrek Lowe, should he sign with us. I’d be more than happy to have him on the Phils. But I would hope we could get Moyer back too. Hamels-Myers-Lowe-Blanton-Moyer is a hell of a rotation! Now is not the time to mess up. You don’t want the Phils not signing Lowe or Moyer.

2. PhillyFriar Says:
   December 5th, 2008 at 10:38 am

   A quick note: Vernon Wells sounds like an enticing trade target until you realize he has 6 years and $117 million left on his contract. Wow, no thanks.

   Good stuff though, Tim. I agree: if Lowe signs with the Phils, it’ll be sooner rather than later, because the Yankees will not be outbid over the long-term.

3. Don M Says:
   December 5th, 2008 at 11:10 am

   Whoever the agent is for Vernon Wells… that guy should win MOST VALUABLE AGENT of the decade award…. that is freakin STEALING money .. like as good of players as Carlos Lee, Alphonso Soriano, Wells, etc are… they aren’t worth close to $20 M per season…

4. TheDipsy Says:
   December 5th, 2008 at 11:30 am

   Well Tim, its good to see you’ve been reading my posts and I’m glad its proving to be a good source of information for you. But I don’t recall posting that the Phillies would take Burrell back at 14m. In fact, I don’t think they would even offer him 10m and that’s why he’ll be gone. RE: Lowe, part of me thinks that if they really want Lowe bad enough that they should make him a great offer before the meetings start a la Eagles. Get him off the market before the feeding frenzy starts.

   The Dipsy
   Chairman of the Derek Lowe in Pinstripes Foundation

5. bull Says:
   December 5th, 2008 at 11:38 am

   Throwing out some other cheap OF alternatives, thoughts:
   Emil Brown
   Juan Rivera
   Shannon Stewart

6. Memphis Says:
   December 5th, 2008 at 11:53 am

   I don’t necessarily agree that Lowe will happen quickly if it happens at all. (Don’t get me wrong, that’d be great.) Boras is going to play this out (unless the Phils have blown him away, and I seriously doubt that, anyway Boras would just take any huge offer to the Yankees to beat). Maybe the Yanks gobble up CC and Tex (Manny too?) and Boston decides it’s only in it to drive up the price for others (they have a lot of pitching). I’m getting the (bad) feeling the real competition here could be the Mets.

7. Bloagie Says:
   December 5th, 2008 at 12:21 pm

   If the Phils sign Lowe, a more likely scenario for the 5th spot would be Happ/Carrasco. I don’t see the Phils spending the money for Lowe and Moyer, plus I don’t want 3 lefties in the rotation (although Happ is a lefty). I would really like to see Lowe and take a chance on Penny (rather have Penny than Burnett), who would be half the price of Moyer. And, don’t cringe, how about bringing Abreu back for one, maybe 2 years? I’m not sure how much he would be commanding, though he did make 16 mill last year. I’d rather pay him 16 mill a year than Pat the Bat! And, if Penny is signed, then trade Happ with prospects for Dye

8. Don M Says:
   December 5th, 2008 at 12:27 pm

   I think Bobby Abreu goes to the Cubs, who desperately need a LH-bat that can get on base and drive in runs… that is Abreu more than almost any other OF option.

   How much do we think Penny is going to go for? I’d say he gets at least $20/3 years …if not, then something is wrong.. unless his arm is COMPLETELY shot

9. MikeMc26 Says:
   December 5th, 2008 at 12:33 pm

   I think Cole Hamels needs to get paid too, he was talking about more money at the beginning of last year. Having Lowe would be great, but having Moyer in the rotation too would be great too.

10. TheDipsy Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 12:45 pm

    Don M, I think you are right about Penny. I would take him at that price, no problem.

11. Don M Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 1:06 pm

    Buster Olney reports that the Yankees are thinking of offering the Dodgers Robinson Cano for Chad Billingsley or Clayton Kershaw… if those fail, they will try to acquire Matt Kemp…

    If the Dodgers trade ANY of those 3 players for Robinson Cano, they are out of their minds, and MLB needs to investigate how the Yankees robbed the Dodgers

12. Chuck P Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 1:06 pm

    Brad Penny is done… no way…

    Vernon Wells is a better fielding version of Bobby Abreu with more power… like Abreu, he is a bit of a fraud. His numbers are gaudy but he’s not a winner and he doesn’t have “it.” Not a guy that I would rely on in a key situation… def not worth the 5th largest contract in baseball history.

    Cheap Alternatives… 1. Rivera 2. Brown and 3. Stewart… my response, respectively; 1. if we land a pitcher, sure 2. Not really interested 3. No way…

13. Geoff Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 1:06 pm

    Now to me, if they sign lowe then they can afford to let happ/carrasco/kendrick fight for the 5th spot but if they cant get lowe and have to move on to penny or garland then dont you need moyer back too? just kind of what im thinking.

    penny should get 8mm per year unless hes almost done. 3 years 24mm would get it done (isnt that what they gave adam eaton?)…shudder

    i think theyre going after lowe exactly for the reason tim said…things arent going well with moyer and if they want to sign lowe they have to do it within the next two weeks (id even say one week) or else the price goes too high.

14. Geoff Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 1:08 pm

    juan riveras gotta be the unmber one cheap option out there who could enjoy a resurgence at CBP.

15. Geoff Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 1:13 pm

    the yanklees have been trying to unload cano and melky cabrera ever since everyone else in the league realized theyre not top flight A-list future all stars.

16. Chuck P Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 1:27 pm

    “Buster Olney reports that the Yankees are thinking of offering the Dodgers Robinson Cano for Chad Billingsley or Clayton Kershaw… if those fail, they will try to acquire Matt Kemp…”

    HAHAHHAAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!!

    Wow, times must be pretty tough in NY. That luxury tax must be killing Hank… he’s obviously drawing at straws. Now, the one interesting point here is that the Dodgers might have outfielders and pitchers to play with and they still need infielders (their depth chart has Blake Dewitt starting at 2b and 3b right now). Now, this is where it gets a little bit crazy and I’m not saying that I would make this move… Billingsly broke his leg in the offseason (he slipped on ice outside of his home in Reading, PA)… would you trade J-Roll for Billingsley? Rollins goes back to LA and Billingsley stays in PA. They get the SS they’re looking for… we get $7 million to sign a FA SS or OF.

17. Don M Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 1:28 pm

    Cano can hit… but you don’t trade any of those 3 players for him if you are the Dodgers.. Melky Cabrera should go back to Trenton.

    Should we stop thinking that players will have great seasons just because they play at CBP soon? Wes Helms, Geoff Jenkins, Pedro Feliz, etc… weren’t they all going to hit 25 HRs just cause they played here?

    Granted that Jenkins is a part-time now, and Feliz was looking at 20+ if he didn’t hurt his back, but I really don’t think the park is as big a factor as its made out to be

18. Don M Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 1:32 pm

    After we SHELLED him in the playoffs… no chance you trade a Gold Glove winner for an unproven pitcher.. and then you have an unproven SS to replace Rollins too.. it wouldn’t be a smart move at all

    I think Andy LaRoche’s brother was a 3b prospect for them that was close, but got hurt last year.. or did he get moved in the Casey Blake trade or something?? If your pitching is good enough, you can bring up a 2b that just plays defense and bats 8th for your team.. not trade for a 2b-bat, and give up a young starting pitcher for him

19. Geoff Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 1:33 pm

    No its nto as big a deal now that peopla re adjusted to it. but it already has a sort of veiled mythololgy as a home run park to other teams and players around mlb. it got in the dodgers’ heads thats for sure…they blamed their game 1 and 2 losses on citizens bank park…

    feliz had a pretty good year i thought..he turned out to be a VERY good signing, especially since, yknow, he drove in the winning run to clinch the WS…ill never forget that thats for sure…

    the big factor rivera would really benefit from is hitting 5th or 6th in this powerful lineup…

20. Don M Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 1:49 pm

    Feliz was the one player I wanted last year as a Free Agent… because of his defense, and playoff experience.. it worked out very well overall. And he’ll go down in Phillies history!

    I’d really like them to get another Starter this year, since Myers might be gone next year… Moyer will be gone somewhere between last year and two years from now..

    Carrasco, Marson, and an OF from our farm within the next two years would be GREAT.. and Hamels, Victorino, Werth signed to long term deals that makes everyone happy..

21. Geoff Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 2:37 pm

    Yeah hell go down in history thats for sure…its always one of those guys that comes through like that…liek andre dupont scored the game winning goal for the flyers’ first cup, and bob kelly for the second. and for the eagles…oh no wait, they havent won anything, nevermind…but yeah those other guys are the players that win championships. every team has home grown stars, i mean, even the pirates have some very fine home grown players (nate mcclouth, paul maholm, ryan doumit) but its the ability to trade for and sign players like pedro feliz and find gems like jayson werth off the scrap pile that puts a team over the top…

    now, yes, you need derek lowe, but i felt that gillick knows something about joe blanton that we dont…i think blanton will be ready to break out next year in the NL…and may even be worth signing to an extension. gillick was really good at getting these non-flashy, yet integral puzzle pieces. he was robbed a few times (freddy garcia), but the brad lidge trade should go down in history as the biggest robbery trade the phillies have ever pulled off. they flat out made off with lidge without having to even put on a ski mask.

    amaro hopefully learned from that..but given the starting pitching market i feel that the need to sign lowe outwieghs the money itll take and the risk that contracts like that inherently posses. ill take juan rivera and derek lowe and then someone like russ springer and call it a day.

22. Griffin Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 2:55 pm

    Not to put a damper on the Lowe talk, but here’s an except from Jayson Stark’s blog:
    ” Haven’t gotten a confirmation of the Phillies’ reported offer to Derek Lowe. But agents report the Phillies have been reluctant to go beyond three years on any pitcher they’ve talked about this winter — a holdover from the Pat Gillick edict. And while they might bend that for someone, it isn’t likely to be for a pitcher who turns 36 in June. Also, don’t forget that during the NLCS, Lowe made it clear he wasn’t the president of the Citizens Bank Park Fan Club. “

23. Don M Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 3:30 pm

    Geoff.. what a difference a World Series trophy makes.. you seem almost happy lately

24. Mike B. Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 3:40 pm

    Doesn’t surprise me, Griffin. I was actually surprised that he has a career 2.25 ERA in 20 innings pitched over 3 starts at Citizen’s Bank Park (two in 2005 and one in 2007), but then I wasn’t surprised when I read that he’d given up 2 home runs over those three starts. As we learned from John Lieber, and lately from Kyle Kendrick, a pitcher is screwed if he hangs a sinker at CBP. At Dodgers Stadium, he’d give up a long, loud double if he hung a sinker, but you can theoretically work out of those. That’s why I hate when we sign guys from pitchers parks – extra base hits normally go lead to runs, but at least in those parks you can work out of them; here though it can put pressure on a pitcher. That’s how the park does have an effect – it’s not as much a longball haven as people think, but you worry more that an extra-base hit will turn into a home run than you would at Chavez Ravine.

25. Geoff Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 3:49 pm

    I am happy…I am happy because this team, and ll of the great players that we knew they had but were frustrated with for underachieving for so many years….FINALLY lived up to its potential. Jimmy Rollins & Shane Victorino saved their seasons by turnign themselves around when it mattered most (shane staerted earlier than jimmy) howard and burrell struggled in the playoffs mostly but came through in key situations with big hits…cole hamels became the superstar lockdown, overwhelmingly dominant ace that we all expected him to be. carlos ruiz even played well…ryan madson became a dominant setup man for much of the stretch and the playoffs. even joe blanton and jamie moyer pitched OUT OF THEIR minds in teh ws (moyer) and all playoffs long (blanton). myers held his own in the playoffs yet somehow figured out how to hit in that one game where they shelled chad billingsley.

    and i was amd at brad lidge for..oh wait no, brad lidge was perfect all season long, which is completely insane to think about sometimes..i still am amazed by that.

    all of those pieces fell into place and they put it all together. i was mad at them for notliving up to their potential of being a world champion to that point…and they finally did all that. now its like ok, well youve earned yoruselves some room for error. no reason to go off the deep end. they would have to suck really bad this year for me to flip out and get mad at them THAT much again..

26. Geoff Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 3:52 pm

    whoa…i just read that boras is asking for 90mm over 5 years for lowe…BULL-SH*T! thats gotta be fake posturing, NOBODY, not even the yankees, is going to give him 5 years at that rate…

27. Geoff Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 3:53 pm

    also..im not flipping otu demanding they sign sabathia or burnett..because thats a horrible idea when you have an ace..hamels..all you need is another solid productive starter, a left fielder whos productive, and some extra bullpen arms…

28. Don M Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 4:22 pm

    I just read that too about Lowe… that is CRAZY.. I thought when all was said and done, he’d get 4 years at like $16 M per season, which is overpaying by a lot.

    If you could sign him to a fair deal, you would pay him like $30-36/ 3 years…

    Considering CC Sabathia has offers around $100-110 for 5 years, and $140-6 years from the Yankees.. that would make Sabathia a complete steal compared to Lowe. I hope that nobody signs Lowe to that much money, because he’s just not worth it, and if someone does sign him to that type of contract, I hope to God its the Mets… because we proved we can beat Lowe.. and that would handcuff them for years to come

29. Geoff Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 4:38 pm

    Honestly, Lowe would be crazy not to come here and play in front of feliz – rollins – utley – victorino – werth…those guys are great defensive players. the side of the infield from utley over to feliz is clearly the best in all of baseball defensively, i mean, thats not even a debateable point really.

    ruben should call his bluff, boras is full of it this time, the yankees wont give aj burnett 5 years…so tehyre not going to give lowe 5 years either. id pay 4 years 16mm a pop for lowe and thats still expensive because starting pitchers are always overpaid in free agency.

30. Jesus Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 5:18 pm

    I was under the impression that Moyer made 7million in 08 after his incentives? Can anyone confirm this? I think it’s more of years than dollars at this point. He signed a pretty incentive laden deal last time and probably wants 2yrs guaranteed without having to hit too many incentives to hit.

31. KM Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 5:46 pm

    Interesting that you noted that Myers may be on the trade block for a Wells or Dye. Wells is a good name, but he is owed a ton. He has consistently put up good numbers, when he hasn’t been injured, but not 20 mil dollar numbers. I think the Jays would have to pick up much of that contract to get that deal done. As far as Dye goes, he plays in a comparable park currently, so his number probably wouldn’t skew much. He’d cost a couple prospects and is in his mid to late 30s, so that may not make much sense, being that he’s an aging power hitter.

    A name I am interested in as far as a trade goes is Juan Pierre. He makes about 9 mil a year and I am sure we could get the Dodgers to pick up some of that contract with the right deal. He is exactly the type of player that would work in our left field situation – contact hitter, with lots speed, hits for a good average, plays a good defensive outfield. Not sure what it would cost to get him, but it would be interesting to find out. He is the odd man out in the LA outfield situation, especially if they resign Manny, so they may be willing to trade him rather than have a 9 million dollar player coming off the bench.

    It seems that most people want a right-handed power bat to hit behind Howard, but I have a different theory. I say let Werth bat 5, and somehow acquire a left-handed contact bat with speed to hit between all the righties at the back end of the lineup. Like I said, Juan Pierre would be a nice fit – He rarely strikes out, and steals a ton of bags. He may be just what the back end of the lineup need for a spark. Here is what my lineup would look like with Pierre:
    Rollins
    Victorino
    Utley
    Howard
    Werth
    Pierre
    Feliz
    Ruiz
    Pitcher

32. RichieAllen Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 6:05 pm

    Like I said yesterday…I know its impossible to believe..But
    Lowe might actually WANT TO COME HERE.
    We won the world series for Christs Sake,we have a great team.

    I know its all money all the time…but I’d like to see somebody say 14-16 million is enough to live on for 2-3 years..Im going to the Phils.

33. Griffin Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 6:08 pm

    Juan Pierre is awful. Absolutely awful. He never gets on base, has a terrible arm and is grossly, grossly overpaid. KM, I don’t think your idea is terrible, but Juan Pierre is not the answer (nor is he anyone’s answer).

34. Don M Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 6:21 pm

    Juan Pierre, career .300 hitter, 4 seasons with over 200 hits (not counting 196 hits in 2007), 40 or more stolen bases in every single season since 2001… I’d take him on my team anyday

35. Griffin Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 6:38 pm

    Juan Pierre

    .327 OBP, .328 SLG

    13 extra base hits in 119 games played.

    Has the worst arm of any outfielder in baseball and is therefore a defensive liability.

    5153 career ABs, 313 career BBs

    is owed $28.5 million over the next 3 years

    Dodgers couldn’t give him away.

36. RichieAllen Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 7:31 pm

    Trade Juan Pierre for Eaton….the change of scenery might help both..and,.nobody loses..nobody expects anything from either one.

37. The Dipsy Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 7:33 pm

    Juan Pierre absolutely sucks. And KM, you would bat him sixth????? Whats up with that? Is this confirmed that Boras wants 5y/90m for Lowe? If so thats just hysterical. So anyway…..is Freddy Garcia healthy yet?

    The Dipsy

38. RichieAllen Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 7:33 pm

    OOOPS,dont make that trade…..dont want to take on Pierre’s contract.

39. mike Says:
    December 5th, 2008 at 10:32 pm

    How can Renteria get 9 million a year. He can’t hold jimmy rolling jock strap. When they do contracts don’t they look at what top players are making. and then adjust the salary.

40. KM Says:
    December 6th, 2008 at 12:49 am

    I don’t know how people can bash Juan Pierre. I will give you the facts that he doesn’t walk much, and his obp isin’t super high, but that is why I wouldn’t bat him early in the order. He is not a power guy, he is more of a singles hitter, but with his speed a single can easily become a double. The guy is a career .300 hitter, he never strikes out, he steals a ton of bases and he has excellent range in the outfield. If his arm isin’t good enough to play a corner outfield spot, then we have the flexibility to move Victorino to RF, Werth to LF, and play Pierre in CF. He would add a contact bat to the back of the order that is sub-par offensively with Feliz and Ruiz.

    As far as his contract goes, we could probably get him for around 6.5 million a year, because we could probably get the Dodgers to take a bit of his contract.

    Look, whether it be Pierre or someone else, we need offensive productivity from the LF spot. The answer is NOT another slow, right-handed power hitter who strikes out a ton, and takes months off at a time.

41. Memphis Says:
    December 6th, 2008 at 2:14 am

    Look just a little deeper at Pierre’s numbers: He had one of the worst OPS in all of baseball with at least 375 ABs last year (actually worse than Jason Varitek). He is just not a productive offensive player, he’s actually one of the worst. He really doesn’t have the goods to be a regular, on a good team at least (like the Dodgers).

    Worst case in LF, I’d give a Dobbs/Baldelli or Dobbs/Rivera platoon a decent chance to be productive. Include Jenkins in the mix only if he’s over whatever affected him in ‘08. If it doesn’t work out, make a mid-season deal (maybe for Mike Cameron, though I’m lukewarm on him). The options just aren’t that good right now, including Burrell. It’s frustrating (I can’t believe we’re actually thinking of bringing Burrell back, even though it looks unlikely), but I’m pretty sure Pierre is not the answer.

42. The Dipsy Says:
    December 6th, 2008 at 10:41 am

    ENOUGH with the Pierre talk, my god. I understand that this is a great forum for hot stove talk and all that, and it is fun, but the right handed bat in left field is probably a guy who is not available yet and probably not a free agent. My issue is with Brett Myers. This is a bried synopsis of how I feel about him:

    Still young with a real good arm. Great curve and a good fastball WHEN HE CAN LOCATE IT, which he doesn’t way too often. But whether its because his “head is facing first base” when he delivers or “his arm is behind his shoulder when he throws” or because he’s not breathing though his eyelids or whatever he is just not able to maximize his physical gifts. I would suspect that he is an intriguing name to other teams around the league that need a starter, and who doesn’t. But we know the truth. He’s just maddeningly inconsistent. He had a great second half and his value may have gone up. I’m not willing to bet thats this is the Brett Myers we’ll see for the rest of his career merely for the fact tha I believe that past performance is the best predictor for future returns. Logical right? And when you look at his record, its just aint that good. So in short, I’d find just ONE team (and thats all it takes) that thinks he’s the guy thats ready to “break out” in their town for their team. Then its time to “sell high” on Brett. His value is at its highest right now. I figure you can get a solid right handed bat and a good prospect for him. And 12m more to spend in FAgency.

    But thats just me.

    The Dipsy
    Chairman of the Derek Lowe in Pinstripes Foundation

43. KM Says:
    December 6th, 2008 at 11:29 am

    I would NOT sign Baldelli. He is currently not healthy, and only due to get worse. Maybe for a year or two he would be worth a platoon gig, but any more than that and the Phillies would be foolish to sign him.

    Personally, if a trade is not on the horizon, I wouldn’t mind giving Dobbs a shot. If the Phils don’t see Dobbs as a possibility, then as far as free agency goes, I like Ibanez, and to a lesser extent Bradley and Rivera.

44. Georgie Says:
    December 6th, 2008 at 12:24 pm

    Dipsy, I actually like your assessment of Brett Myers, trying to trade him now when his value is higher would be ok with me, he’s just too unpredictable, you never can be sure which personality is going to show up.

    Oh, and I was able to get thru your entire comment since it wasn’t dripping with sarcasm. Maybe it’s just me, but sarcasm is kinda like booze, the f-bomb, makeup-all can be very effective, but make the greatest impact when used sparingly, imo.

    Georgie, the Sarcasm Police

45. mike Says:
    December 6th, 2008 at 1:29 pm

    This talk about what a lowe and burnett want is exacly why its important to spend money in the draft. And why the phillie made a mistake not offering arbritation. 90 million for lowe if you spend a little more in the draft its better than overpaying for these guys. if the phillies weren’t so cheap in the draft. You would have joe saunders as your number two.

46. Memphis Says:
    December 6th, 2008 at 3:09 pm

    I’m not sure Myers’ value is at his highest right now. I mean, wasn’t he just in the minors this past year trying to figure things out? Someone like Madson, that’s a sell high. Myers? He certainly did his part down the stretch and in the playoffs, but as you say — he’s inconsistent. Your imaginary deal actually sounds like you’re just getting what you can for him.

    That said, I’d rather have Myers than Moyer. I prefer the young power arm. If we somehow were able to get Lowe (not counting on it), I’d keep Myers and let Moyer go. I think Moyer is a much bigger risk in ‘09 than Myers.

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