Ibanez Deal Tough To Swallow After Abreu Inks

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Thu, February 12, 2009 07:25 AM

If Ruben Amaro has made one mistake in the offseason, it was committing so early and so much money to Raul Ibanez. Two months after signing Ibanez to a three-year, $31.5 million contract, the Angels nabbed Bobby Abreu for the discounted terms of one year and $5 million.

Bobby Abreu: seven 100+ RBI seasons in eight years; eight 20-20 seasons; a career .300 average; a .405 on-base percentage.

Hey, Phillie fans know full well about Abreu, considering he’s one of the franchise’s greatest players. So it’s difficult to fathom that while Ibanez, a 36-year-old outfielder, got two more years and $26 million more than Abreu, a 33-year-old outfielder … who has better numbers.

Let’s look at their 2008 numbers, comparatively:

AB/H/Average
Ibanez: 635/186/.293
Abreu: 609/180/.296

HR/RBI/Slugging
Ibanez: 23/110/.479
Abreu: 20/100/.471

BB/SO/On-Base
Ibanez: 64/110/.358
Abreu: 73/109/.371

R/SB/OPS+
Ibanez: 85/2/124
Abreu: 100/22/120

Very, very similar. While Ibanez has a tad more power, Abreu has a tad more on-base skills. We know what Abreu will give a team — walks, singles and doubles, good speed. We’re not as sure with Ibanez, but from his numbers, we can tell he has above-average power and doubles ability. And consistency, right? Ruben Amaro Jr. stressed Ibanez’s consistency as one of the reasons he was sought instead of the plateau-and-valley Pat Burrell.

But a look at Ibanez’s 2008 gamelogs show he’s actually not unbelievably consistent. His season started strong with an OPS above .900. But that dipped below .800 by late May, mainly because of his slugging, and he wouldn’t get back above .800 until late July. So while it’s a two-month dip, it is a dip, and it’s the same kind of dip we’ve seen from Burrell, whose OPS first went below .900 in September. He suffered a two-month lull that lasted until his very last at bat as a Phillie, in game five of the World Series.

Abreu, meanwhile, fit himself in the .810s quickly. He had a couple weeks where his OPS slid into the .760s at worst, but it always regained into the .800s, mainly because no matter what, he’d find a way on base. Moreover, Abreu hit .800 on July 26 and never saw below it again, riding a hot final two months to an OPS that rested at .842, five points higher than Ibanez.

This isn’t to say Abreu was a better choice for the outfield than Ibanez. But all the sticking points that made Ibanez so desirable actually look better with Abreu. He’s just as consistent a hitter (and more consistent getting on base) than Ibanez (imagine Abreu getting on base a lot for Utley and Howard). He’s better on the basepaths and proabably similar in the field. He understands Philadelphia and is familiar with the clubhouse. He would have known he was coming in as a leader or a star, but a fine complimentary piece.

And those lefty splits that make Ibanez so great? While Ibanez is a career .268 hitter with a .733 OPS against lefties, Abreu is a career .280 hitter with a .776 OPS against lefties.

Amaro wanted his man and got his man, despite probably overpaying and over-reading the market early. Here’s hoping it works out — but hopefully he knows there were options that might have been just as good (if not better) and at a much, much cheaper price.

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190 Responses to “Ibanez Deal Tough To Swallow After Abreu Inks”

  1. Kevin M Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 8:26 am

    I admit that now it looks a little foolish to have jumped on Ibanez when Amaro did but at the same time I am not going to put too much blame on him. He has still done a good job filling in the roster well before spring training. Honestly I would have been a little upset if Abreu came back to Philly. He had some good numbers but where was he when the team really needed him?

  2. PhillyFriar Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 8:40 am

    Well stated, Tim. I was not a big fan of the Ibanez deal at the time because it appeared that Amaro had jumped the market. Obviously that’s proven itself true as the offseason’s worn on. The Phillies will say that Ibanez is a better clubhouse guy, etc., but that doesn’t account for a $26 million discrepancy.

    Still, it’s hard to hammer Amaro for the offseason in general. Ibanez was a bad mistake, but I give him an A- for how he handled the rest of the offseason.

  3. Shawn Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 8:42 am

    It’s obvious that with the contracts given to the core of this team – the next 3 years are huge. So, if Ibanez contributes, with numbers and intangibles – like hitting well in the clutch & leadership – then $3-4M extra given per year is not a big deal. Also, one thing we have all learned in Philly is that you cannot just look at the numbers when judging Abreu. There has to be something said about a him, because it is when he left that this team started to hit their stride.

  4. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 9:06 am

    If Abreu was platooning with Werth last year, this team would have still won the World Series. Abreu is better than Ibanez, but then again, Burrell is better than Ibanez as well.

    Ruben made a mistake, but once the season starts, it doesn’t matter. It only matters once Ibanez starts declining and his contract makes him impossible to jettison. Until then, go Ibanez!!

    Here’s a snippet from a Baseball Prospectus chat two days ago:

    “Tim (DC): Christina, which multi-year contract given to a hitter this off-season will look regrettable within 18 months? Bradley? Teixiera? Howard?

    Christina Kahrl: I’d pick Bradley, which is admittedly a bit gutless, but the guy’s track record for getting hurt is remarkable, and while it might be cool if he turns into the latter-day Rodman who doesn’t have to be the center of attention on a team already stocked with a lot of talent, it’s also a bit of wishcasting. I hope he pans out, but I’m a skeptic.

    Aaron (YYZ): Surely the Ibanez deal will look worse than the Bradley deal a year and a half from now.

    Christina Kahrl: Sure, but it just as surely looks worse right now, and looked worse a month ago.”

  5. Matt Kwasiborski Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 9:12 am

    I just ordered my Ibanez jersey! OK- remember guys, this isn’t fantasy baseball. This is real baseball. While, it does look like Amaro overpayed for Ibanez now, what about all of his other moves. And what about Adam Dunn getting 10M from the Nats? That to me, is the worst contract.

    Abreu just isn’t a winner. He doesn’t bring it to the table every night like Rollins, Utley, Victorino, et al. Abreu is a pure stats guy. Plus, how much confidence can he have when his fiancee went on reality TV and slept with her housemate or whatever for all of Venezeula to see? He has none! He never won with us, with a better Yankees lineup, and he won’t win in LA. He cannot be counted on in the clutch.

  6. Joel V Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 9:20 am

    Totally agree! Even after the rays signed Burrell for 2 yrs at 16 million I thought this. But Abreu signs for $5 million??? Furthermore, was anybody knocking down Ibanez’s door besides us to sign him?

  7. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 9:23 am

    Joel V, you make a great point. All we heard about Ibanez was that the Mets were after him. Well, considering the Mets didn’t spend any money on any OFs, I don’t think they were after Ibanez. Amaro got played, but oh well.

  8. Geoff Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 9:43 am

    I agree. Hes a good player still, but its a bad contract. I mean, they really did vastly overpay for him. They jumped the gun. They jumped the gun with moyer too. But he didnt really understand that were in a depression and most of the teams in mlb really didnt want to spend a lot of money.

    But the way I see it..they penny-pinched for years and they finally build a winner so theyre stuck with a huge payroll for a while now, liek it or not. i mean, eaton and jenkins and feliz will take a good chunk of change out of the payroll when they leave, and youd have to assume of myers or blanton will come off the payroll after the season (im thinking whichever of the two has a better year, logically, would get the extension). moyer comes off the books after another year and that same year victorino and werth would both need to be given extensions.

    so you might see about 30M or so come off the payroll but the payroll still is going to be qquite large for at least 3 more years…but when youre an elite team thats what happens.

  9. Greg V. Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 9:44 am

    I’m not bothered or disturbed by the Ibanez deal. Amaro took the helm and wanted to shake things up a bit. The man wears his ego on his sleeve. So he inked Ibanez for too much money. Oh well. Why are we crying about how Abreu was had so cheap? My memories of Abreu was that he put up half decent numbers but did not play hard at all. I don’t miss his years with the club. Final thoughts, Amaro should have waited. He didn’t Move on.

  10. Jim Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 9:47 am

    I see your argument here but I can’t say amaro is totally at fault. It was a tough market for free agent outfielders in our price range. He had two options, give a lot of money now and get a sure thing like ibanez, or wait it out and wait for players to settle for less at the risk of getting a smaller name player. If you had told me that abreu would not have been signed by feburary back in november id have laughed at you

  11. Manny Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 9:50 am

    It seemed like too much money and years in the first place (way before Abreu, Bradley, and everyone else signed).

    NOW, it seems like a really stupid deal, and I say that despite the fact that I really like Ibañez and what he will bring to the clubhouse.

    Also, I saw those lefty splits yesterday when comparing Ibañez with Abreu… the icing on the cake.

  12. OZ Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 9:50 am

    Abreu – cheap, but not sure he would have been great in the clubhouse.

    Amaro’s grade is on pause until we see what Ibanez does.

  13. Manny Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 9:54 am

    As a whole, I never wanted to see Abreu back… but I just wished we would’ve given Ibañez a much smaller deal. That was the first and only (hopefully) mistake by Amaro this offseason.

  14. JohnKruksLoveChild Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 9:56 am

    Thome had a lot more heart then Abreu ever did, and honestly, I wasn’t sad to see Bobby go. No regrets there, imo.

  15. MS Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 9:59 am

    its the burrell deal that has me sad. i think we would have all been happy with burrell at 2/16 versus this ibanez deal. oh well.

    wfc.

  16. Maverick Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 10:01 am

    Amaro made a rookie mistake. Hopefully Ibanez doesn’t turn out to be another overpaid bum like Adam Eaton.

    If so we need to kick Amaro out of town… he has a lot riding on Ibanez

  17. uguethurbina Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 10:01 am

    I think the cubs were also looking at Ibanez right when he signed him. Somebody would have signed him had we not.. maybe not for quite as much, but still what would now be considered “overpaid.”

    I know I would be less than thrilled with abreu, dunn, griffey or any of the others left as part of our starting OF. Well, except manny.. but really for the price and the headaches I don’t know that he’s even worth it…

    Basically it was either pat or raul… Rather then wait it out, rube went for what seemed to be the best fit for these phillies.. and as long as Ibañez plays well, and the team does well, none of us will even still be talking about his contract at all..

  18. Kev Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 10:06 am

    If the phillies would of offered ibanez a smaller deal or waited for the price to go down, he would of signed with the mets. yeah it looks like you overpayed for him, but at the time, he was being looked at by a multiple of teams, so he was going to take the best contract available and that was the phillies. Abreu got a 1 year contract for a reason, hes a decent hitter, not clutch, no heart, and no leadership. His best attribute is getting down 0-2 and working a walk.

  19. James Fayleez Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 10:08 am

    Is this blog seriously touting Bobby Abreu’s numbers? And worrying about what we paid Ibanez?

    Abreu is a loser who puts up stats when they don’t matter. Ibanez? I don’t know about him yet.

    As far as what he gets paid? Who gives an S?

  20. Justin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 10:21 am

    Tim you’re basing these stats great but the one thing you didn’t factor in is the fact that Abreu hit in a stacked Yankee lineup where he wasn’t a player who was depended on to get the big hit. Ibanez is a player who was their main hitter in Seattle so those numbers are slightly different when you compare the players hitting around Abreu with the players hitting around Ibanez the numbers don’t look as bad. Put Ibanez in the Phillies lineup where he just has to mop up what Utley and Howard can’t bring in and all his numbers get better.

  21. Don M Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 10:25 am

    We all like Burrelll cause he’s a home grown player.. and despite getting booed all the time and stuff he always said how much he liked the fans.

    I liked him as a person/player

    But a guy with a .257 career average, that gets taken out of games in the 7th innings isn’t valuable to your team on the field.

  22. Don M Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 10:29 am

    If Ibanez, Bradley, and Dunn all got $10 M a year… Burrell got $8… I would say that Abreu was underpaid, more than that we overpaid for Ibanez..

  23. MS Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 10:40 am

    will we see the defensive replacement for ibanez late in games? i don’t think he’s an upgrade over burrell in the field.

  24. tim Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 10:42 am

    Burrell is awsome, I will miss him. Ibanez has the potential to be awsome with this team, and if he is, I will be glad that he has the contract to keep him happy and keep him here. This team rules!

  25. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 10:45 am

    Ibanez is a terrible fielder and will need to be replaced late in games.

  26. Carl Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 10:46 am

    They can have Abreu at any price. He is a cancer. we are way better off without him. We overpaid for Ibanez that is true. We just hope he puts up the numbers we expect. I think he will. Can’t wait for Spring Training….

  27. Joe Salerno Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 10:50 am

    We’ve seen enough of Bobby Abreu. The definition of how to win is Larry Bowa, Pete Rose, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins. The definition of how to play for numbers, not hit a wall and not do what it takes to win is Bobby Abreu. I’m not sure about Ibanez but team chemistry would take a significant hit downward with Abreu as soon as he started waving at the wall and let catchable balls go for doubles.

  28. bdunf Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 10:51 am

    We are way better off without the Bobby Abreu experience……been there done that. Ibanez might be a bit high but can’t be too critical of this off season.

    On a different note looking at espn and other sites…..didn’t the Phillies win the world series. I know the whole world is all A Rod all the time now but looking back at this off season, has there been a champion that got less attention nationally?

  29. Kev Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 10:59 am

    Lets see what Ibanez does in the best lineup in the NL. Also lets see what he does on a winning team, when was the last time this guy played in the playoffs? A winning attitude from this team, but elevate this guys game even more. And any1 that says this guys a terrible fielder? Have you watched him play an entire season or are you basing it on what “experts” say, come on people, give your own thoughts, not what Steve Phillips said on espn or something. The guy cannot be worse then Burrell in the field, and Burrell never killed us in the field, so why is anyone worried about his defense? Stop Nit-Picking

  30. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:07 am

    “when was the last time this guy played in the playoffs?”
    Ibanez was on the 2000 Mariners and went 3 for 17 with 3 singles. If Bobby Abreu had done that, Phillies fans would murder him, but Ibanez did that with someone else, so it’s ok.

  31. Scott B Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:12 am

    I’ll be willing to pay more for Ibanez if he has heart.

    I’ve had this conversation many times but its a proven fact that whatever team Abreu is on, they lose. Guy has no heart/balls. Too nonchalant and that irks way to many people.

    I’ll continue being happy for Ibanez until he proves me wrong. the core of our team is back and I thank Amaro for that

  32. Kev Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:13 am

    It was his first playoff appearence, remind me how Utley, Howard, and Rollins hit in their first playoff series against the Rockies…

    I just don’t understand why people are already killing the dude when spring training hasn’t even started yet, give the man a chance, all he wants to do is win and produce, god damn

  33. Mark Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:13 am

    who cares what they spend. I dont care as long as they win. I dont go to games because I would need a second mortgage. Watch them free on tv. I can eat 2 hot dogs for 1.50 and not 15.00 dollars with some ugly chick giving me crap burnt dogs with no smile and making me use a debit card…I hate the ballparks.

  34. Manny Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:14 am

    Griffin, show Kev those animated images/mini-videos with Ibañez throwing the ball….

  35. reddeath Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:14 am

    i kinda like that everyone in the media is bashing this deal. maybe it will give ibanez extra motivation to prove himself.

  36. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:15 am

    Kev, in regards to Ibanez’s terrible defense, I’m basing it on the fact that no one ever has said that he’s not a horrible fielder. Maybe a 37 year old will find the fountain of youth and will discover newfound range out in LF, or maybe he’ll be what he’s been for years-a terrible fielder.

  37. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:16 am

    Manny, I’m trying to find that clip, it’s hilarious. If you find it, link it.

  38. Manny Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:18 am

    I agree with what you just said Scott B. But 5M extra for heart is pretty expensive. We got him expensive, but I’m excited to see him contribute to our team and bring a professional attitude to our ball club.

  39. Manny Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:20 am

    My friend for Washington State (who has seen Ibanez play multiple times) says that Ibañez is a terrible fielder, but not that much worse than Burrell.

  40. Kev Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:22 am

    Its Left Field people, he doesn’t need to be Willy Mays, just catch the routine ones, and get the ball in quick.

  41. Don M Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:24 am

    SO lets say that they are both bad in the field, and would both be replaced late in games..

    wouldn’t you rather have the guy that hits closer to .300 than the guy that hits closer to .250 for those 7 innings of every game?

  42. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:24 am

    Fair enough Kev, but let’s not go around saying “have you watched an entire season or are you basing it on what experts say”. Ibanez is a terrible fielder and so was Burrell. Ibanez is a DH who has to play LF this year much like Burrell was a DH playing LF last year who gets to DH this year.

  43. Manny Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:26 am

    Got it!

    http://i27.tinypic.com/28akex2.jpg

  44. Manny Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:27 am

    This probably is his worst play ever, so let’s not think he’ll be doing this with the Phils. But it’s still hilarious.

  45. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:27 am

    nice job Manny, I couldn’t find it for some reason.

  46. Kev Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:27 am

    Why do you keep saying terrible? Im not positive but Burrell didnt make more than 1 or 2 errors last year and was in the tops in assists all year from outfielders, so why are they terrible? I think Burrell was smart in the field because he knew what he could and couldn’t do, if he couldn’t get to the spot, he would get the ball in quickly, he wouldn’t trying diving like others. But 8/10 he got to the spot, and made the catch. Its also helpful to have Victorino in CF who will play more to LF knowing that the defender isn’t strong.

  47. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:29 am

    Burrell was a terrible fielder because he had no range and couldn’t get to balls that most fielders would catch. Every fielding metric has Burrell and Ibanez at the bottom for outfielders.
    You are right about the fact that LF and RF are the most unimportant defensive positions on the field, but let’s not go around proclaiming Ibanez to be a defensive upgrade from Burrell because he’s not. They’re both awful out there.

  48. Manny Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:33 am

    Though to Kev’s credit, Burrell had a pretty good year as a fielder. He had good outfield assists and played smart. But that doesn’t hide his overall career fielding skills, which suck.

  49. Kev Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:34 am

    Im not saying hes an upgrade by no means, hes prolly the same as Burrell, but what im trying to get through to you is, being “awful” in the field is booting balls that get through the infield to you, dropping easy pop flies, not communicating with other fielders and running into them. They don’t want Burrell/Ibanez to be running around like a mad man, making diving catches, roaming into Vic and J-Roll territory. I wouldn’t call them terrible because they know what they can and can’t do. Terrible/Awful would be like Dunn dropping balls right to him, etc. So he’s awful because he doesn’t have the range that YOU think every LF should have? Lets see you get out their with the pressure to read the ball off the bat, get to a spot, and catch it with 45 thousand screaming and at your back.

  50. Maverick Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:37 am

    Manny – Any chance you have the video of Burrell last year attempting to dive for a ball and eating dirt…then falling over after ying to get up and losing his glove? That was a classic!

  51. Don M Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:39 am

    LF is definitely the least important defensive spot… Im not sure what would come next? I was going to say 2b, but double-plays are important… 3b and RF…

    1b..

    C, SS, and CF are the most important.. and im not sure where the others would fall in.

  52. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:40 am

    So you’re basing your premise of Burrell not being an awful fielder on the fact that he can play baseball better than myself?!!
    This debate isn’t going anywhere. Burrell and Ibanez have no range whatsoever, but as long as we don’t expect much from him defensively, he won’t disappoint.

  53. Manny Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:41 am

    Maverick, I remember that play… Nearly everybody in the blog found it funny, and I was doing my best defending Burrell. Let me see if I can find it…

  54. Don M Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:43 am

    People need to stop insisting that Burrell has a great arm and whatnot.

    He got OF-Assists for the simple fact that teams ran on him all the time.. he has a strong arm (usually), but not one that is all that accurate..

    I remember Dodgers running through stop signs at 3b, and scoring on balls to left, and waiting for Burrell’s lolipop throws to get there.

    Maybe the best way I’ve seen this whole arguement stated was they are both DH’s.. Burrell gets to play DH this year, Ibanez has to play LF..

    Which I think is clever, Ibanez has better range then Burrell and will get to more balls, and hopefully make the routine plays…

  55. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:45 am

    Maverick, I think that was against the Mets in the Brett Myers friday night game at Shea late in the year. The date was 9/5

  56. beta sigma shag Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:51 am

    ok first off Griffin you are talking about one series 9 years ago and his first one, no sign of how well he will peform now. Did the real phillies phans get on this team for there hitting against the rockies two years ago, no because we were happy that we had a core of good players and we made the playoffs. And playing in Seatle how much have any of us seen him play, I know I don’t know that much about him, that is why we should wait and see before jumping all over the guy. Did Amaro jump the gun maybe, but he wanted the guy so he went out and got him. If Werth, Victorino, and or Feliz pick up there offensive power numbers it will be nice to have a 300 hitter out there that does not strike out a lot. Even if we have to take him out in the 8th inning. Lets at least give the guy a shot and see what he does.
    One last thing you have to be kidding me about Abreu he was lousy in the club house lazy and unless I am mistaken, this team has been on a tear since he left end of story. The guy just did not fit in with this team

  57. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:52 am

    Don M, I read an article that rated the importance of defensive positions. It ranked them: SS, CF, 2B, C, 3B, 1B and then the corner OFs.

  58. Kev Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:52 am

    No i wasn’t basing it on you, i was just busting your balls because you keep sayign their terrible based on what? their range? If my left fielder doesn’t drop balls, or let them go under his head or over throw the fielders hes fine. I wouldn’t say their good fielders, but i certianly wouldn’t say their terrible, or awful, i would consider them smart because they know what they can get to, and they usually do. They don’t lose games because of their defense. Can you name be some left fielders that are above average or “great” defensive players? I doubt it because LF are to hit and make the routine plays.

    Put it this way, they didn’t give him 31 mil to play good defense, they payed him to be a consistent bat, they will be a constant in the lineup which won’t let the offense go in week long slumps.

    Also, you have never explained to me why their terrible, all you keep saying is “their range”.

  59. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:55 am

    beta sigma shag, I agree about the one postseason, it was 17 ABs. Someone asked about his postseason performance, so I posted it.

    We agree to disagree on Abreu. I would much rather have Burrell or Dunn than Abreu, but I’d much rather have Abreu for 1 yr/$5 mil than Ibanez (who is older) for 3 yrs/$31.5 mil.

  60. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:56 am

    “Put it this way, they didn’t give him 31 mil to play good defense, they payed him to be a consistent bat, they will be a constant in the lineup which won’t let the offense go in week long slumps.” Agreed.

    “Also, you have never explained to me why their terrible, all you keep saying is “their range”.” You just answered your own question.

  61. Kev Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:58 am

    It’s not a viable excuse to me. So what if he had extremely good range, but constantly over ran the ball, dropped the ball, over through the cutoffs etc?

  62. Brooks Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 11:59 am

    I sat in RF at CBP for 3 years watching Bobby in RF. He was a hell of a show. Whenever he would come out in the top of the first, we stood and applauded the all star and he waived and tipped his hat. Watching Shane take over and then hand the job to Werth made it easy to forget Bobby’s contributions.
    Bobby is fun to watch but did not do all we needed him to do as our gun or leader. No, the Phils needed more and got a lot more. Ibanez will not dissapoint us. There are legitimate 5 & 6 ( put righty Werth at 5?) hitters on this team, at last.

  63. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 12:00 pm

    “So what if he had extremely good range, but constantly over ran the ball, dropped the ball, over through the cutoffs etc?”

    Yes, that would be another way to define an outfielder as “terrible”.

  64. Kev Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 12:01 pm

    If they dont drop the ball that should be caught, and get the ball in to the right cutt off. They are regular left fielders, but i guess since they aren’t like a god damn hoover vaccuum in Left they will never live up to griffins standards

  65. BurrGundy Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 12:02 pm

    Abreu would have done a fine job here in Philly. The jury is still out on the Ibanez deal and I think Amaro paid way to much for an old outfielder. We should have offered Abreu something.

  66. beta sigma shag Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 12:04 pm

    I just dont get it do you remember Abreu when he played here, I think we could of gotten him cheaper, but also I would have taken Pat back at what tampa is paying for him, you have short term memory lose or what, wasn’t it basicly the same team that won the division a year after abreu left philly, when they traded him, they were going now where and when he left they ended up challangeing for the the nleast crown.

  67. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 12:04 pm

    Kev, Ibanez and Burrell are not regular left fielders, they are two of the worst left fielders. If your standards for being a good fielder is not having the ball fall out of your glove and not throwing over the cut-off man’s head, than you won’t be disappointed with just about anyone out there.

  68. john Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 12:07 pm

    maybe the Phillies Brass did not want bobby back

  69. Don M Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 12:09 pm

    Abreu was seeking like 4 years and $48 M at the time we signed Ibanez

  70. Brooks Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 12:10 pm

    Geez everyone!
    Pat Burrell had a great arm but ran like a Moose on ice!
    No doubt Ibanez may not have a gazelle stride but he has to be faster than a Moose on ice.

  71. beta sigma shag Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 12:11 pm

    I think that is the point, I dont think Pat was terrible in LF, he certinly wasn’t elite, but he was smart, and for the most part knew his limitations and yes I would rather have a below avg lf who does not try to make plays he can’t and turn singles into doubles or triples. And when there is a ball hit that he knows he will not get to with his limited range he picks it up on the bounce and throws it to second base so now that is a single. and didnt we win a world series with a below avg defense LF. And I go back to my original point, can we at least let Ibenez play some spring training games before we rag on the guy

  72. Don M Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 12:15 pm

    haha I never heard the “moose on ice” before… I was heard “he was as graceful as a Pig on Rollerskates” as the expression

  73. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 12:17 pm

    yes, the “moose on ice” is my new favorite as well.

  74. Mike N Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 12:20 pm

    Re. Tim’s article – I think the one thing we ought to fault Amaro on is his complete lack of interest in bringing back Burrell. He didn’t even make any serious attempts at negotiating with Pat. Given what Pat wound up signing for, and the fact that he loved Philly (so might have stayed for less), that seems like a huge error. Ibanez may be marginally better than Burrell, but he’s certainly not enough better to justify the difference in their contracts.

  75. Sean P. Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 12:24 pm

    Forget Abreu, I think Adam Dunn is the guy noone talks about.

    Can you imagine two 40 Home Run guys in the Lineup, that would have been awesome.

    I’m still happy with Ibanez, can’t make to many judgements this early though.

  76. Kev Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 12:27 pm

    You can’t compare what Ibanez signed for and what Abreu signed for, Ibanez signed on Dec 12!!!! Abreu signed yesterday! Ibanez was being sought after by the Phillies, Angels, Mets, probably others i just can’t remember, so of course the phillies were going to overpay a little to bring him to Philly. Hes a better overall hitter then Burrell, and the same defensively. If he was the same age as burrell, i bet you he would of signed a much bigger deal, but the only thing people are holding against him is his age.

  77. Don M Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 12:28 pm

    $2 M per year for a guy that hits almost 30 points in his career batting average

    That doesn’t justify the difference in their contracts?

    Look, Burrell was cool… he liked playing here… but he was one of the most inconsistent hitters ever. Let’s wish him well and move on

  78. Kev Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 12:29 pm

    agreed Don M

  79. Don M Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 12:29 pm

    Adam Dunn is horrible. YOU CAN NOT have him and Ryan Howard back to back in the lineup

  80. Kev Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 12:32 pm

    Haha, i wouldn’t throw them a strike if i was pitching

  81. Brooks Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 12:38 pm

    I just picked up my opening day tickets about 1 hour ago.. emails have been sent.
    My buddy worked last night, I woked him up to let him know -

  82. Sean P. Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 12:41 pm

    I don’t think you can aruge with 40 homeruns for the past 5 seasons.

    Plus, does anyone think that Adam Dunn looks just like Will Ferrel? haha, makes me laugh just thinking about it.

  83. Brook Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 12:45 pm

    Abreu is a clubhouse cancer. That is the reason why they did not pursue him at all, that is also the reason why the Yankees did not resign him. There is a warning label attached to him.

  84. Maverick Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 12:54 pm

    Interesting article on ryan howard and strikeouts

    http://cybermetric.blogspot.com/2008/11/should-ryan-howard-try-to-strikeout.html

  85. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 12:57 pm

    Good article Maverick, also if Howard put the ball in play more often, he’d hit into a lot more double plays.

  86. TheDipsy Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 1:02 pm

    Amen, Tim.

  87. Kev Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 1:06 pm

    Maverick, is their any way you can email that article to Geoff? hahahaha

  88. Wilson Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 1:07 pm

    The Abreu deal is a non factor….at no point would I ever welcome him back to this town….I don’t care if he paid the Phillies to play right field….no way

  89. Bruce Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 1:13 pm

    I see that there are a few who continue to bash Abreu with such crapola as “clubhouse cancer”, even resorting to off field tabloidal garbage concerning his girlfriend. Geez!

    During the Abreu era with the Phillies, the team’s biggest area of concern has been their pitching, just like most teams. One year its the bullpen; the next year its the rotation. Because fan expectations were so high on him and regardless of his outstanding offensive stats, Abreu became the face of all that had gone wrong with the Phillies, not the root of all the problems. The Phillies problems start with organization and go back long before the Phillies acquired Abreu. It’s a classic case of fans blaming their best player for not being Superman instead of fixing the parts of the team that actually needed help.

    Certain Philly boobirds took out their frustrations on Abreu. It was the same treatment for Burrell until they finally won a WS championship. But there are those same, certain boobirds who wouldn’t relent and their rationalization is that Burrell was making too much money. I can remember how Mike Schmidt was treated in Philly during his hall of fame career. They boo’d Schmidt!

    Mike Schmidt: Greatest third baseman ever. 3 time MVP. Gold Glover. During his prime the Phils went to the playoffs annually, reached the series twice, and won their first series since 1915.

    I watched Schmidt played during his entire career, and it was only at the end of his career, after it was clear what a great player he was that fans warmed up to him much at all. (Philly fans still credit the ‘80 championship to Pete Rose, never mind the fact that Schmidt had one of if not the best season of any player of that era that year). Schmidt had a lot of characteristics in common with Abreu – quiet, not a rah-rah type, and perhaps most critical in my view – his strongest characteristic as hitter was his willingness to take strikes even in a big situation. Fans here simply cannot stand the fact that a big money player will come up and not swing in a key spot, and both Schmidt and Abreu would take strikes, even strike three, regardless of context

    There are numbers, accurate and informative ones (as noted by Tim), that tell us that Bobby Abreu is by far the best right-fielder the Phillies have ever had. And I think Tim will have him in the top ten in his list of “greatest Phillies.”

    Again, it’s a classic case of people wanting a scapegoat for the Phillies’ failures-and usually, it seem that the scapegoat is the team’s BEST player. Failure must mean someone should be “blamed”-without objectively looking at all the team-related problems/issues. I just think those particular fans who hold these unenlightened attitudes only perpetrate a stereotyped reputation outside of Philly.

    For the record, I would describe Abreu as average fielder (compare to the Ibanezs and the Burrells of baseball) , way above average arm, good attitude and popular with teammates, and a consummate professional CLUTCH hitter. Great eye & plate discipline. If the rest of our so-called stars produced in the same manner as Abreu, true fans would be richer in appreciation of the game itself.

    Ok.. I’m off my soapbox. :-)

  90. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 1:18 pm

    well said Bruce, the blind hatred for Abreu is appalling. Calling the guy a clubhouse cancer when he’s quiet and is not fully comfortable with the English language (his words) is downright laughable.

    It’s simplistic to look at Abreu and see the Phillies didn’t make the playoffs with him and won the World Series without him.

    I would say that the Phillies were a flawed team during the Abreu years, but they’ve made the playoffs two times in the first two years of Adam Eaton’s contract. So Adam Eaton must be a great clubhouse guy.

  91. Maverick Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 1:18 pm

    Bruce im sure whatever you wrote is great stuff im ADD challenged.. anything over 2 paragraphs gets skipped.

  92. Manny Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 1:28 pm

    Well said Bruuuuuuuuuuuuce

  93. Manny Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 1:38 pm

    Griffin, are you sure that Pat’s play –dropping the glove and falling– is during the Phillies-Mets game on 9/5?

    This is the link to the Recap video, but they didn’t show Pat falling down:

    http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=200809063426811

    In that game, however, Howard made two great defensive plays! Check it out.

  94. Jeff Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 1:41 pm

    This is bad for Ibanez!

    The average Phillie fan for the most part wants production for the amount paid. You look at what Burrell did over the years. It was pretty good career, but overpaid for it, was the thought. So in thought since Burrell signs a small deal with the Rays and Abreu signs the same with LA, Ibanez better have a year like no other here or they fans are going to be on him. Big shoes to fill not sure it is possible to do.

    Bad deal made by Ruben, only one this year in my opinion, but none the less bad. Should have signed oneof the following to a small deal as insurance. Abreu, Burrell, Dunn. I mean the Nats got a Left handed power monkey for 10 mil a year, Ibanez is getting around the same don’t like it.

    Raul better hope he has an out of body experience.

  95. youidiots Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 1:42 pm

    You Abreu bashers are beyond stupid. He was the only player worth watching on this team for 5+ years ! He didn’t slam into walls,and he said he didn’t because he wanted to play a style that allowed him to stay injury free and help the team in as many games a possible. WHICH HE DID. How much did Arron Rowand help the team while missing 2 months stupidly bashing his face into a wall ? You guys are calling him a loser ? the whole team was full of losers during Abreus tenure thats not his fault we sucked as a team. On pure talent he’s one of the 20 greatest phillies of all time and the numbers back that up. Raul is old…can’t play D any better then Burrell and Adam eaton grade suckered the phills. Drink the world series kool aid if you wan’t but this contract was terrible before the ink dried. Dunn would out homer Howard at cpb because he actually has a sense of pitch selection so he or Abreu would have been much better additions to this club rather then a 39 y/o journeymen who’s never put up huge numbers.

  96. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 1:43 pm

    Manny, I checked it out and it was early in the game (I think the first inning) on David Murphy’s “double”.

    I have the mlb package, so I watched the game and fast forwarded to the play. It was pretty embarassing. Burrell fell down and managed to drop his glove.

    Is there another Burrell play that I’m getting confused with?

  97. Evan Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 1:44 pm

    Interesting article Tim. Hindsight is 20/20. The early offseason deals by the Phils (Ibanez and Moyer) were probably a reaction to winning the WS. The team felt pressure to make deciscive moves to ensure they would continue to be contenders for the next year or two at least.

    The front office didn’t wait to read the market, in other years they might have been making the right choice. It’d be nice to have Abreu instead of Ibanez, especially at $5 million for one year. Oh well.

  98. Manny Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 1:46 pm

    Nope, I think that’s it.

  99. metsblow4show Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 1:57 pm

    I have a friend who used to work for the Mariners in their Marketing Dept. and is a huge M’s fan. When the trade was made I called her and asked her what we were getting in Raul Ibanez. She loves Raul Ibanez and said he was one of her favorite players and a real quality person. She thinks he will fit in perfect in the Phils clubhouse as he is great guy and a relentless worker. She thinks his numbers will even be better in Philly, playing in a hitter’s park and being surrounded by an all-star cast compared to the pitcher’s park he played in, in Seattle and the cast there. When I asked about his defense, she started laughing and said “lets put it this way, he is never boring” LOL When I asked her to compare his defense to Burrell, she told me that Burrell has no range, and an above average, fairly accurate arm, and fields pretty much everything he gets to. He just doesn’t get to much . She said Ibanez has more range, an average arm at best, that isn’t always accurate. She said Ibanez will get to more balls then Burrell but that its an adventure, you never know what you are going to get. He will mis-play alot more balls then Pat. She said if she had to pick the better defensive outfielder, she would pick Burrell because you pretty much know what he is getting to and what he isn’t. As far as an overall player, she thinks Ibanez is going to be a fan favorite. She said he is a hard working guy who is very likeable. That being said, I think Bruntlett’s job as the late inning caddy is safe.

  100. Johnson Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 2:09 pm

    remember ibanez put those numbers up with ZERO protection…would have had much bigger numbers in yanks lineup as well as abreu wouldnt of had his numbers in settle lineup…translation ibanez better hitter than abreu…bobby much better on basepaths but phils arent going to have their 5 hitte stealing bases ever…prediction for ibanez
    .290avg 26hrs 89runs 104rbis…bout 7 less dongs than pat put the 40points hire in average will translate to about 20-30 more rbis

  101. Tim Malcolm Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 2:11 pm

    I think if there’s one issue I didn’t mention (and someone brought it up), it’s that Abreu was with the Yankees, who scored 100 more runs than the lowly Mariners. So maybe Abreu’s run-producing numbers are lessened, but not too much, if he’s averaged out with Ibanez.

    Everything else is pretty static.

  102. Richie Allen Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 2:40 pm

    This situation is easy with hindsight…we paid too much for Ibanez if you look at it now.
    But I say lets give this guy a chance.He might gell better with our hitters,have more opportunities for RBI.He might really fit in well.
    Having more of a contact type hitter than Burrell will be welcome if he does in fact put it in play more.
    As for Abreu,he was never coming back here.I’m convinced of that.I believe that the front office had their fill back when he played here.

  103. Craig Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 2:45 pm

    What you failed to factor in is how many runs Abreu gives up in the field. He’s a great DH, but that’s about it. I couldn’t bear to watch him in the field. Just horrendous.

  104. Chuck P Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 3:02 pm

    By the numbers… sure, Abreu is great and the Angels got a great deal but bringing back Abreu is as likely as signing JD Drew.

    One question though: if Abreu is that good, why didn’t the Yankees re-sign him? For that matter, why did no one want him? Ibanez was a high-value commodity. Abreu is a first-round draft pick in fantasy baseball… but he’s not the guy that I want in this clubhouse. Not now, not ever.

    He’s a below average fielder that puts up hollow numbers. I can’t justify it with numbers but it didn’t take long for the Yankees to figure it out. He’s just doesn’t have it and some things aren’t quantifiable…

    The other day on 610, Rube said that he thinks that change is really important… I thought that was interesting. Almost like he was conceding that Burrell might not have been a bad option for us in LF but that the change was necessary for the clubhouse to keep moving forward. I still think that Ibanez is an upgrade over Burrell and Abreu. Maybe he’s not worth the amount he’s owed but this is where I’ll take my place as a fan… I just bought my 17 game plan and I want the best product on the field. Ibanez is the best LF we could have gotten.

  105. PhxPhilly Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 3:04 pm

    I really think it was Burrell or Ibanez or filler.
    Bradley – too hurt, Charlie might be able handle ‘effort’ issues but why bother
    Dunn – just like Howard (would be okay if we were to trade Howard)
    Abreu – not the right message to the team
    Burrell – must have had some team issue why they really wanted someone else
    Ibanez – good hitter, old, still best on AL team

    I really do not have much issue with the $10/yr. But 2 yr deal with 3rd option would have been much safer. Ibanez in year 3 could be a Jenkins of last year.

    My preference would have been filler then use the extra $$ for a stud SP. CBP is still a known hitters park. It will always be more difficult to sign Free Agent pitchers than hitters, especially with Manuel being considered a hitters friend. So the chances of us getting a good ‘filler’ are better than other teams.

  106. Don M Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 3:13 pm

    I don’t understand why people fail to see the career .257 average as the most likely reason the Phillies wanted a new Left Fielder…

    Plain and Simple, they wanted someone more reliable…

  107. Manny Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 3:17 pm

    Thanks for the info on Ibañez, metsblow4show.

  108. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 3:40 pm

    Don M, why is batting average the key stat? OBP and SLG are much better barometers of a hitter’s value. You want to get on base and get extra base hits.

    If BA was reliable, then Juan PIerre was one of the best hitters of the decade.

  109. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 3:42 pm

    The last thing I’ll say is that Burrell walked in 16% of his plate apperances last year and CBP had the highest % of runners scoring in the majors. His .257 BA doesn’t look good, but his .367 OBP and .507 SLG does.

  110. Don M Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 3:57 pm

    Getting HITS, isn’t the most important thing as a HITTER ????

    Getting on base is great and all.. but when you are the #5 ..(wait for it).. HITTER on your team, and you don’t HIT the ball and drive in runs like other guys do, then you aren’t as good as them..

    Tell me that you are satisfied with Burrell’s career here, and I would say that you are a liar

  111. Don M Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 4:05 pm

    I understand that point you are trying to make, but there are reasons why HITS, and Batting Average are stats that people care about… and they win you awards and people follow who has the highest or the most in their careers.

    Ask anyone who has the highest career SLG%, or the best OBP% in their career and see if anyone has any idea, or cares at all

  112. Don M Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 4:13 pm

    SLG is a made-up stat, that relies on how many bases you get per hit, so guys that hit HRs get 4x 4bases, a single gets you 1x 1base

    its a stat, made up for the sake of it, whereas Hits, RBIs, and Batting Average are well known to be the better reflections of a talented hitter..

    Getting on Base does help your team win games.. but not from the #5 spot in the order, from a guy that is paid to drive in runs

    SLG is fine but makes guys like Jason Giambi, Travis Hafner, and Carlos Delgado seem like better hitters than Chase Utley, Magglio Ordonez, and Alfonso Soriano

    so it all depends on how you want to look at it

  113. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 4:21 pm

    Don M, Utley had a .380 OBP and a .526 SLG last year. That’s why he’s the best 2B in baseball.

    He hit .292, Placido Polanco hit .307, so I guess Polanco is better since he gets more HITS.

  114. Brooks Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 4:23 pm

    did I say that?

  115. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 4:26 pm

    The top 5 OPS’s (which is OBP + SLG) of all-time:
    1. Babe Ruth
    2. Ted Williams
    3. Lou Gehrig
    4. Barry Bonds
    5. Albert Pujols

    Top 5 BA of all-time:
    1. Ty Cobb
    2. Rogers Hornsby
    3. Joe Jackson
    4. Lefty O’Doul
    5. Ed Delahanty

    You can take the BA guys, I’ll take the OPS guys.

  116. metsblow4show Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 4:27 pm

    Your Welcome, Manny !

  117. Don M Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 4:31 pm

    Hornsby was filthy!

  118. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 4:33 pm

    What about Shoeless Joe?!

    Third highest BA of all-time and he’s not in the hall.

  119. Don M Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 4:35 pm

    Ibanez hit .043 higher than Burrell last year, which is even bigger when one of them flirts with .300, the other .250

    If Burrell was even closer to .275 i’d like him more

  120. Don M Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 4:38 pm

    Ty, Roger(s) with an “s”… and Lefty…. great names

    I seriously understand your point, and we can both find stats and lists and numbers to back ourselves up..

    But it comes down to needing or wanting a more reliable RBI man, and someone who can keep innings alive… Burrell wasn’t that.. Im glad he was still here when we won the World Series, and he had some key hits to help us, but Im not sad that he’s gone

  121. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 4:40 pm

    Well, we’re back to our old argument of OPS vs. BA. I think the players are similar, but Ibanez is 4 1/2 years older, more costly, left-handed, and cost a draft pick.

    And before you even say it, yes I know that only 30% (your stat, but I trust your accuracy) of 1st rounders ever play in the Majors.

    Ibanez should do well his first year or so here, but that 3rd year of his deal is scary. Amaro overpaid, but these things happen.

    Any word on Will Ohman?

  122. psujoe Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 4:41 pm

    I chimed in late so I couldn’t read all 1100+ comments, but Abreau was a cancer IMO. Sure, maybe we over payed, but I don’t want a 3 slot hitter looking to walk in the 8th and 9th inning and he was unwilling to bat #2 or #1. The yankees have improved big time by subtraction of Abreau just like the Phillies did.

  123. christopher Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 4:43 pm

    no matter what the circumstances, i never want to see abreu in a phillies uniform again.

  124. psujoe Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 4:45 pm

    Also, the Angels would’ve been after Ibanez after missing on Tex. keep in mind no way Pat signs in Tampa if the Phils didn’t fill their OF needs. Who knows, once Tex signed Ibanez and Burrell may have gotten more.

  125. ryan Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 4:53 pm

    i disagree. i’d rather have Ibanez any day.

  126. NateB Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 4:58 pm

    Ibanez will fit way better in the clubhouse than Abreu, and we’ll see how their numbers compare in the next 3 seasons, but they’ll probably be similar.

  127. Don M Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 5:00 pm

    I’m not even sure what the exact % of that is.. that was the number sticking in my head, I think it was from the day we were talking about the Johan Santana trade, and what the Twins got in return vs. what they would have in draft picks..

    but whatever the rate is, its low… 30% even seems high to me..

    Here is the top 5 OFs in Batting Avg last year:
    Milton Bradley .321
    Matt Holliday .321
    Magglio Ordonez .317
    Lance Berkman .312
    Ichiro .311

    Here is the top 5 OFs in On-base plus Slugging (OPS):
    Milton Bradley .999
    Lance Berkman .986
    Ryan Ludwick .966
    Carlos Quentin .965
    Matt Holliday .947

    ……………….

    Top 5 OFs in RBIs:
    Josh Hamilton -130
    Manny -121
    Ryan Ludwick -113
    Carlos Beltran -112
    Raul Ibanez – 110
    …(Burrell -86)

    Top 5 OFs in Hits:
    Ichiro -213
    Josh Hamilton -190
    Raul Ibanez -186
    Alex Rios -185
    Randy Winn -183
    …(Burrell -134)

  128. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 5:02 pm

    Damn, Milton Bradley had a great year last year, didn’t he? Too bad he can’t stay healthy, as the Cubs will soon find out.

  129. Kev Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 5:12 pm

    I cant believe you guys are arguing over two completely made up stats, in OPS and Slugging %, lol Hits, RBIs and Runs Scored are what matters, so therefore id have to agree with Don.

  130. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 5:13 pm

    Aren’t all stats made up?

  131. Don M Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 5:17 pm

    Im not even trying to “win” any arguements… I just think people seriously overvalue what Burrell did or does

    And Hamilton is a beast, Ludwick (Can he repeat those numbers???? I have him in a fantasy keeper-league, but don’t know if I trust him)

    and Lance Berkman is the most underrated player in all of baseball!

  132. Kev Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 5:18 pm

    Hits RBIs and Runs scored arent now are they? They are main components of the game where OPS and Slug % are, who gives a fu*k about that crap, half the people that watch the game probably don’t even understand what the hell that means. Like OPS, .996 what the hell does that mean? .996 what? lol its all bullshit to me. The BA make sense, hits, RBIs, HRs, and Runs Scored make sense.

  133. Don M Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 5:22 pm

    I think stats that require crazy formulas… are made up

    I like Hits, RBIs, HRs, Runs, Steals, SB, errors, etc.

    BUT.. ERA is more accurate than WINS for a picther, so what is the most accurate for a hitter..?

    its all made up.. its all a game… and its all good. fa sho.

  134. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 5:23 pm

    Don M, I agree about Berkman, he is really, really good.

    Kev, if you don’t like the stats, then fine, but you shouldn’t dismiss them as nonsense just because you don’t understand them.

  135. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 5:24 pm

    Fa sho indeed.
    BA is the % of times you get a hit
    OBP is the % of times you get on base

    There, now that wasn’t so hard!

  136. Don M Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 5:29 pm

    But since hits are usually more productive than walks… I consider Batting Average THAT much more important than On-Base Percentage

    as we go in circles..

    yo Griffin… I like that you aren’t a cyber-tough guy and freaking out.. and that you can have a legit debate about things.. good stuff

  137. Kev Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 5:30 pm

    I just disagree with your assessment on determining if one player is better than other based on OPS and Slug %, it should be what the game actually invovles, Hits, RBIs, Runs, SB, errors, etc.

    So people might value Burrell because he gets on base 16% of the time via walk. Well if he walks soooo much, and is average is still .250, that makes his average look extremely worse since the walk doesn’t count as an at bat, there fore when he gets hits, it would raise his average cause he walks that much. But obviously, Burrell didn’t have the hits to make the average and walks both look good.

    Basically to me, if your walking 100+ times a year, your average should benefit extremely from that. But Burrell still only batted .250, which is amazing to me. Imagine if Burrell didn’t walk 100+ times, his average would be down at like .230

  138. Don M Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 5:33 pm

    would Batting Average + OPS (on base + slugging percentages) be the ultimate stat???

  139. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 5:34 pm

    What I will say is that there are no one or two statistics to measure how good a player is. If someone presented me with different statistics that I could use to formulate my opinion of a player, then great.

    Stats are not the perfect measure of a player, there are many things (clubhouse character, clutch ability, etc.) that are immeasurable. So I basically try to read up all I can and gather up all the stats I can find to try to evaluate a player.

    Don M, good stuff as well.

  140. Kev Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 5:36 pm

    But am i crazy about what i said about Burrell? I want to hear what you guys think, (and disregard if you like the guy, because i think hes the man) about my assesment on Burrell

  141. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 5:37 pm

    good point, while OPS measures the difference between a walk and a double or a walk and a home run, it is unable to measure the difference between a walk and a single.
    So if there were a man on 2nd base, a walk would not score him, but a single might, and that is not reflected in OPS.

    congrats Don M, you just found a hole in the stat. I still like the stat, but like I said, it’s not perfect-no stat is.

  142. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 5:40 pm

    My opinion of Burrell change a lot when I first started looking at stats that encompass getting on base. Quite frankly, I was surprised by how much more valuable he was as opposed to my original opinion of him.

    I think Phillies fans got on Burrell for what he was not-a 40 HR, athletic, .285ish hitter, instead of appreciating him for what he was-an on base machine, with good pop who kills LHP.

    Also, it would help if Burrell’s OBP was accompanied by the ability to run the bases with any degree of semi-speed, but that wasn’t the case with Pat the Bat.

  143. Kev Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 5:45 pm

    I believe that people had high expectations for him since he was the 1st overall pick, and his big rookie year.

  144. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 5:47 pm

    Very true, the fact that he was the 1st overall pick led to great expectations. He was never a great player, but he was a good, solid player during his tenure with the Phils.

  145. Kev Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 5:48 pm

    Very true, and he probably pounded mad beers after games.

  146. Griffin Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 5:51 pm

    LOL, I think he did alright with the women of Philadelphia from what I hear.

  147. Kev Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 5:55 pm

    I take that back, he might of pounded beers during the games

  148. Georgie Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 6:07 pm

    Well, I think the word “stat” appears about 1000 times on this thread, you boys and your stats and fantasy baseball! I don’t play, so most of these OBPSPD.. is just so much fluff to me. I understand the basic ones, but these newer ones just make my head buzz. Now, of course, since I’m a “girl”, I tend to go more with gut feelings and, yes, my heart. Ironically, two nights ago I had a very vivid dream about Pat Burrell(no, not like that!). I was standing in right field(??) of a dark, dank stadium, and Pat walked out of a door in the wall. I had one of my WS sweatshirts on, and he came over and gave me a big hug. I told him how much we missed him, that we really needed him back. He had tears in his eyes, and said he missed Philly and the fans and his teammates so much. We were talking about ways to get him back, and then the dream starts to fade, except the last thing I remember I was feeling his leg(!!!???) and told him it was really hard. Then I woke up!
    YIKES! I was not thrilled when we let him go, I hope Ibanez is ok, but I just have this feeling there was alot more to Pat than his bat.

  149. Kev Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 6:10 pm

    ….strange…

  150. KM Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 6:13 pm

    I would gladly pay the extra 2 million per year for a better clubhouse guy like Ibanez.

  151. The Dipsy Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 6:23 pm

    Hey Georgie girl. Great dream. Have you ever thought about talking to someone?

    The Dipsy

  152. Georgie Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 6:27 pm

    Dips, why would I want to do anything that would stop me from having dreams about Pat Burrell?lol

  153. Don M Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 6:44 pm

    Georgie.. aren’t you married???

    Griffin.. is there “BOPS” (batting average + on base percentage + slugging%)??

  154. Dave S Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 7:09 pm

    Wow, what a list of comments. The PHillies got better not because Abreu left, but because the young studs matured into great players. Had nothing to do with Bobby leaving.

    That being said, I’m concerned about our left-leaning lineup. So, the Ibanez signing only made it worse, just as bringing back Abreu would have.

    I’m not as concerned about the money aspect, although Ruben did overpay. I think Ibanez will have a better season this year than he has in a few years, at least at the plate.

  155. IRONPIGPEN Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 7:34 pm

    Chemistry is certainly important on and off the field

  156. Georgie Says:
    February 12th, 2009 at 8:55 pm

    Don, I’m married, not dead! Are you saying that since you got married you have become blind to a pretty girl? It works both ways- as my dear Mom used to say-”What’s good for the goose is good for the gander”. I will be like Cloris Leachman on “The Office” lol!

  157. Griffin Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 8:47 am

    Don M, I haven’t heard of “BOPS”, but it wouldn’t be hard to figure out. You may have a new stat on your hand.

  158. Don M Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 9:49 am

    I’ll look at it today, and see if it would rank what we would feel as a more accurate list of the “best” players offensively..

    I just think that OPS gives too much credit to guys who walk a lot, and then the power hitters because of the SLG%

    I’ll check this out and put together the top 10 if I can

    should be interesting

    Georgie, Im kidding… of course… Tell us about your Sal Fasano dream

  159. Griffin Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 10:16 am

    Is Georgie one of Sal’s “special” Pals?

    Don M, check out baseball-reference.com for stats.

    Also, the Baseball Prospectus 2009 annual came out today, it’s the best baseball book out there. I read the article on the Phillies and how despite ALL of Gillick’s free agent signings (Eaton, Gordon, Jenkins and to a lesser extent Feliz) not working out, Gillick didn’t give up, adapted and still constructed a championship club. Good stuff.

  160. Georgie Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 10:26 am

    Um, Don, that would be more of a nightmare!

  161. Don M Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 11:03 am

    I used stats from Yahoo… just thinking of players that I consider the “best” …if there is anyone I left off, let me know (I included lots of Phillies and Mets just for fun)..

    BOPS
    (BATTING AVERAGE + OPS (on-base + slugging))

    1. Albert Pujols = .357 avg. + 1.114 = 1.471 BOPS
    2. Chipper Jones = .364 avg. + 1.044 = 1.408 BOPS

    3. Manny Ramirez = .332 avg. + 1.031 = 1.363 BOPS
    4. Milton Bradley = .321 avg. + .999 = 1.320 BOPS

    5. Lance Berkman = .312 avg. + .986 = 1.298 BOPS
    6. Kevin Youkilis = .312 avg. + .958 = 1.270 BOPS
    7. Mark Texiera = .308 avg. + .962 = 1.270 BOPS
    8. Matt Holliday = .321 avg. + .947 = 1.268 BOPS
    9. Alex Rodriguez = .302 avg. + .965 = 1.267 BOPS
    10. Ryan Ludwick = .299 avg. + .966 = 1.265 BOPS
    11. Carlos Quentin = .288 avg. + .965 = 1.253 BOPS
    12. Carlos Lee = .314 avg. + .937 = 1.251 BOPS
    13. Hanley Ramirez = .301 avg. + .940 = 1.241 BOPS
    14. David Wright = .302 avg. + .924 = 1.226 BOPS
    15. Ian Kinsler = .319 avg. + .892 = 1.211 BOPS
    16. Chase Utley = .292 avg. + .915 = 1.207 BOPS
    17. Josh Hamilton = .304 avg. + .901 = 1.205 BOPS
    18. Nick Markakis = .306 avg. + .897 = 1.203 BOPS

    19. Brian McCann = .301 avg. + .896 = 1.197 BOPS
    20. Dustin Pedroia = .326 avg. + .869 = 1.195 BOPS
    21. Joe Mauer = .328 avg. + .864 = 1.192 BOPS
    22. Aramis Ramirez = .289 avg. + .898 = 1.187 BOPS
    23. Magglio Ordonez = .317 avg. + .869 = 1.186 BOPS
    24. Jason Bay = .286 avg. + .895 = 1.181 BOPS
    25. Miguel Cabrera = .292 avg. + .887 = 1.179 BOPS
    26. Jermaine Dye = .292 avg. + .885 = 1.177 BOPS
    27. Justin Morneau = .300 avg. + .873 = 1.173 BOPS
    28. Ryan Braun = .285 avg. + .888 = 1.173 BOPS
    29. Vladimir Guerrero = .303 avg. + .866 = 1.169 BOPS
    30. Grady Sizemore = .268 avg. + .876 = 1.162 BOPS
    31. Carlos Beltran = .284 avg. + .876 = 1.160 BOPS
    32. Alfonso Soriano = .280 avg. + .876 = 1.156 BOPS
    33. Prince Fielder = .276 avg. + .879 = 1.155 BOPS
    34. Adrian Gonzalez = .279 avg. + .871 = 1.150 BOPS
    35. Carlos Delgado = .271 avg. + .871 = 1.142 BOPS
    36. Bobby Abreu = .296 avg. + .843 = 1.139 BOPS
    37. Adam Dunn = .236 avg. + .898 = 1.134 BOPS
    38. Jayson Werth = .273 avg. + .861 = 1.134 BOPS
    39. Ryan Howard = .251 avg. + .881 = 1.132 BOPS
    40. Jose Reyes = .297 avg. + .833 = 1.130 BOPS
    41. Raul Ibanez = .293 avg. + .837= 1.130 BOPS
    42. Pat Burrell = .250 avg. + .875 = 1.125 BOPS
    43. Shane Victorino = .293 + .799 = 1.092 BOPS
    44. Derek Jeter = .300 avg. + .771 = 1.071 BOPS
    45. Jimmy Rollins = .277 avg. + .786 = 1.063 BOPS
    46. Russell Martin = .280 avg. + .781 = 1.061 BOPS
    47. Ryan Church = .276 avg. + .785 = 1.061 BOPS
    48. Ichiro = .311 avg. + .747 = 1.058 BOPS

  162. Don M Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 11:11 am

    * I couldn’t find a website that had this done.. so I couldn’t get an accurately ranked list… I just took the leaders of Batting Average, RBIs, OPS, etc… and put all their names down, then added the stats and put their BOPS number in order

    …some surprising things, such as:

    Ichiro at the bottom of that list.
    Lots of players above Ryan Howard.
    Kevin Youkilis really is as underrated as my other favorite, Lance Berkmann.
    Ryan Ludwick had a MONSTER year, so did Milton Bradley.
    …

    Im not really sure what to make of this list.. what does it really tell us? Is it just more numbers to look at, or does it pretty accurately show who the best “batters” are in baseball?

  163. NJ Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 11:20 am

    Bit behind so you’ll have to excuse the late entry but why are we even talking about Abreu in relation to Ibanez, it’s on a par with saying we should have waited around for Manny.

    No-one expected Abreu to hang around this long, Burrell to sign for the number he did and certainly it was not expected Manny would be one of the last to sign with his suitors so few. Ibanez was about going after the best affordable all-around corner outfielder, remember the Hendry was also heavily critisized for the Bradley deal and Bowdens deal for Dunn is a pure headscratcher. Abreu was not going to sign early for $5m especially with the team that shipped him out like a distraction, would any o you really wanted to not have addressed the everyday corner outfield issue on the off-chance Abreu was going to sign for $5m…?

    We paid for Ibanez sure but it was a better deal than Bradley or Dunn who are better comparisons than the Abreu deal.

  164. Griffin Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 11:39 am

    Don M, great work. A few observations:

    Ichiro is a guy with a high BA, but a very low SLG, so that brings down his OPS. He’s a singles hitter.

    Notice how close Ibanez and Burrell are. The two of them are very consistent year to year, even though they fluctuate in-season.

    Nick Markakis and Brian McCann are two great young players.

    Also, I mentioned that the BP annual came out today, it has player capsules for every single player. It also has manager capsules and I wanted you to check out what they said about Chollie:

    “Manuel may not be the classic, generalized ideal of a sabermetric manager, but if there’s a good reason why not, we’d like to hear it. On offense, he runs with the people he should, avoids bunting with his position players over much, and pinch-hits aggressively with a bench full of players capable of delivering in different situations. On defense, he uses his bullpen creatively in a way that reflects an understanding of what his pitchers’ specific skill sets are instead of following a more standard-issue platoon differential-driven playbook, he doesn’t get overly cute with his rotation despite considerable in-season uncertainty. In short, he uses his entire roster, generally tries to sort out what people can do and sets them to it, and has gotten considerable good work out of other people’s cast-offs. If that isn’t sound management, what is? He will probably never win a Manager of the Year Award-setting aside any readiness for city slickers to get tripped up by the Appalachian accent, appreciation of his skil in game and roster management is probably best observed on the diamond, and not in the interview room.”

    So, they think Manuel is clearly underrated as a tactician and has a keen understanding of his players’ strengths and limitations. Good for Chollie.

  165. Don M Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 12:15 pm

    I don’t mean to keep harping on this, but I pay attention more to the players that I have on my fantasy team:

    Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Brian McCann, Chipper Jones, Ryan Ludwick, Jacoby Ellsbury, Camron Maybin, and some others.

    I get to keep 3 to start the season…. Jones had and monster year, as did Ludwick, but I don’t know if I feel comfortable that either can repeat

    McCann is a must-keep.. as is Howard for his power numbers

    What did BP say about Ellsbury and Maybin?

    I’m going add RBIs to the BOPS numbers, and see what the new rank is (of course I could do RUNS or whatever other stat too, but just for kicks)

  166. Don M Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 12:22 pm

    I left out Aubrey Huff from Baltimore… he would have ranked #15 on the list above:

    .304 avg. + .912 OPS = 1.216 BOPS

  167. Griffin Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 12:32 pm

    Maybin: “The top prospect in the organization, Maybin looks at a ceiling that has been compared to that of a healthy Eric Davis, as he has the potential to be a 30-30 player. In the field, he has an above-average arm and uses his speed to cover a lot of ground in center. On the hitting side of things, Maybe has very strong, Davis-like wrists that give him great bat speed. There are roadblocks: He struck out more than a quarter of the time at Double-A this year, and he hit just .227 because of that, despite an above-average .375 BABIP. It’s easy to envision a scenario where his batting average collapses because he can’t stop whiffing, but should he learn to recognize the pitches that give him trouble, the result could be electrifying. He won’t be a star in 2009, but few players have as much long-term potential.”

    Just a note, BABIP is”batting average on balls in play”. Players that have a high BABIP are considered to have been lucky, thus artificially inflating their BA. Players with a low BABIP were unlucky and can expect an increase in their BA the following year.
    I’m typing in these capsules by hand, that’s why it’s taking awhile.

  168. Griffin Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 12:37 pm

    Ellsbury: “Despite not having a set position in the outfield, Ellsbury accumulated the most playing time of any Boston outfielder by virtue of staying healthy (and not being traded). This season was a learning experience for the speedy 24-year-old: he started out hot, but pitchers quickly figured out that he lacked the muscle or the swing to be a power threat, and they began to bust him inside. The result was an awful run through June and July, during which he hit .246/.271/.308. He did finally adjust, hitting .314/.352/.463 over the final two months by switching to an all-fields approach. The Red Sox believe he’s turned a corner.”

    The stats they give with the slashes are BA/OBP/SLG

    Here are Maybin and Ellsbury’s fantasy predictions for ‘09:
    Maybin:83 R, 15 HR, 57 RBI, 21 SB, .265 BA
    Ellsbury: 87 R, 7 HR, 53 RBI, 42 SB, .291 BA

  169. Griffin Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 12:45 pm

    Ludwick: “Ludwick’s 2008 campaign is pretty far up the list of the best offensive seasons all-time for players who rode the bench on Opening Day. La Russa platooned him for the first month of the season, which was frustrating, given that the big slugger has consistently hit righties better throughout his career (and last year, as Ludwick had a 985 OPS vs. right-handed pitchers and a 929 vs. lefties). Soon enough, Ludwick smashed his way out of part-time duty, and he continued to hit well throughout the season. He’s a poor bet to have a sustained peak, given his late start, but in the short term, he should crank out a couple more 30-homer campaigns.”

    Ludwick: 70 R, 26 HR, 86 RBI, 3 SB, .264 BA

    Just a note, all of these predictions are made by a complex computer formula, not just someone throwing out random numbers.

  170. Don M Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 12:56 pm

    What about our hometown boys Ryan and Jimmy?? just the projections are cool if you dont want to type the entire magazine for these two

  171. Griffin Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 12:59 pm

    I’ll post them right after I finish lunch. I will say that the J-Roll and Howard entries are very interesting.

  172. Griffin Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 1:11 pm

    Ryan Howard: “When does it become all right to point out that despite having three straight top-five MVP finishes, Howard has been sprinting BACKWARDS for two seasons? His .313 batting average in ‘06 was a mirage driven by one of the best BABIP performances (.455 BA) in history. In ‘08, his walk rate dropped off considerably, leading to a .339 OBP that simply isn’t good enough for a no-defense first basemen in a hitters’ park. Last season is the floor for this type of player; either Howard regains some ability to make contact, some batting average, or some walks, or he’s headed for oblivion, no matter how many RBI he collects. Note to NL managers: he’s a .231/.314/.471 career hitter against lefties, and getting worse by the year.”

    Howard: 96 R, 40 HR, 110 RBI, 0 SB, .270 BA

  173. Griffin Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 1:14 pm

    Rollins: “The ankle injury that put Rollins on the DL for the first time in his career (in April) hindered him so much that he set career highs in steals and stolen-base percentage. More importantly, he posted career bests in walks, K/BB, strikeout rate, and OBP. So while no one was touting Rollins for MVP, he was showing the kind of development as a player that makes you think he’ll be productive for a long time to come.”

    Rollins: 102 R, 16 HR, 68 RBI, 37 SB, .293 BA

  174. Don M Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 1:25 pm

    I would LOVE if those two guys had the projected seasons…..

  175. Griffin Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 1:30 pm

    yeah, they’re very high on Rollins and not so much on Howard. I would post Utley’s capsule, but they say what we already know-that he’s the best position player on the Phillies, does everything well and continues to somehow be underrated.

    Utley: 103 R, 28 HR, 95 RBI, 10 SB, .295 BA

    Sign me up for those numbers

  176. Don M Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 1:46 pm

    What does it have for Werth?? and Ibanez..

  177. Don M Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 1:51 pm

    Continuing that BOPS list that I had.. I added RBIs, but to not overvalue those, I put them on a scale with everything else so 146 RBIs = 1.46….

    BOPS + RBI
    (BATTING AVERAGE + OPS (on-base + slugging)) + RBI

    1. Albert Pujols = .357 avg. + 1.114 = 1.471 BOPS + 1.16 = 2.631
    2. Ryan Howard = .251 avg. + .881 = 1.132 BOPS + 1.46 = 2.592
    3. Manny Ramirez = .332 avg. + 1.031 = 1.363 BOPS + 1.21 = 2.573
    4. Josh Hamilton = .304 avg. + .901 = 1.205 BOPS + 1.30 = 2.505
    5. Mark Texiera = .308 avg. + .962 = 1.270 BOPS + 1.21 = 2.480
    6. David Wright = .302 avg. + .924 = 1.226 BOPS + 1.24 = 2.466
    7. Justin Morneau = .300 avg. + .873 = 1.173 BOPS + 1.29 = 2.463
    8. Miguel Cabrera = .292 avg. + .887 = 1.179 BOPS + 1.27 = 2.449
    9. Kevin Youkilis = .312 avg. + .958 = 1.270 BOPS + 1.15 = 2.420
    10. Ryan Ludwick = .299 avg. + .966 = 1.265 BOPS + 1.13 = 2.395
    11. Lance Berkman = .312 avg. + .986 = 1.298 BOPS + 1.06 = 2.358
    12. Adrian Gonzalez = .279 avg. + .871 = 1.150 BOPS + 1.19 = 2.340
    13. Alex Rodriguez = .302 avg. + .965 = 1.267 BOPS + 1.03 = 2.297
    14. Aramis Ramirez = .289 avg. + .898 = 1.187 BOPS + 1.11 = 2.297
    15. Aubrey Huff = .304 avg. + .912 = 1.216 BOPS + 1.08 = 2.296
    16. Carlos Delgado = .271 avg. + .871 = 1.142 BOPS + 1.15 = 2.292
    17. Carlos Beltran = .284 avg. + .876 = 1.160 BOPS + 1.12 = 2.280
    18. Carlos Quentin = .288 avg. + .965 = 1.253 BOPS + 1.00 = 2.253
    19. Carlos Lee = .314 avg. + .937 = 1.251 BOPS + 1.00 = 2.251
    20. Chase Utley = .292 avg. + .915 = 1.207 BOPS + 1.04 = 2.247
    21. Ryan Braun = .285 avg. + .888 = 1.173 BOPS + 1.06 = 2.233
    22. Raul Ibanez = .293 avg. + .837= 1.130 BOPS + 1.10 = 2.230
    23. Magglio Ordonez = .317 avg. + .869 = 1.186 BOPS + 1.03 = 2.216
    24. Jason Bay = .286 avg. + .895 = 1.181 BOPS + 1.01 = 2.191
    25. Prince Fielder = .276 avg. + .879 = 1.155 BOPS + 1.02 = 2.175
    26. Chipper Jones = .364 avg. + 1.044 = 1.408 BOPS + 0.75 = 2.158
    27. Matt Holliday = .321 avg. + .947 = 1.268 BOPS + 0.88 = 2.148
    28. Bobby Abreu = .296 avg. + .843 = 1.139 BOPS + 1.00 = 2.139
    29. Carlos Pena = .247 avg. + 871 = 1.118 BOPS + 1.02 = 2.138
    30. Jermaine Dye = .292 avg. + .885 = 1.177 BOPS + 0.96 = 2.137
    31. Adam Dunn = .236 avg. + .898 = 1.134 BOPS + 1.00 = 2.134
    32. Milton Bradley = .321 avg. + .999 = 1.320 BOPS + 0.77 = 2.090
    33. Vladimir Guerrero = .303 avg. + .866 = 1.169 BOPS + 0.91 = 2.079
    34. Nick Markakis = .306 avg. + .897 = 1.203 BOPS + 0.87 = 2.073
    35. Brian McCann = .301 avg. + .896 = 1.197 BOPS + 0.87 = 2.067
    36. Grady Sizemore = .268 avg. + .876 = 1.162 BOPS + 0.90 = 2.062
    37. Dan Uggla = .260 avg. + .874 = 1.134 BOPS + 0.92 = 2.054
    38. Dustin Pedroia = .326 avg. + .869 = 1.195 BOPS + 0.83 = 2.045
    39. Joe Mauer = .328 avg. + .864 = 1.192 BOPS + 0.85 = 2.042
    40. Derek Lee = .291 avg. + .823 = 1.114 BOPS + 0.90 = 2.014
    41. Pat Burrell = .250 avg. + .875 = 1.125 BOPS + 0.86 = 1.985
    42. Ian Kinsler = .319 avg. + .892 = 1.211 BOPS + 0.71 = 1.921
    43. Hanley Ramirez = .301 avg. + .940 = 1.241 BOPS + 0.67 = 1.911
    44. Alfonso Soriano = .280 avg. + .876 = 1.156 BOPS + 0.75 = 1.906
    45. Jose Reyes = .297 avg. + .833 = 1.130 BOPS + 0.68 = 1.810
    46. Jayson Werth = .273 avg. + .861 = 1.134 BOPS + 0.67 = 1.804
    47. Derek Jeter = .300 avg. + .771 = 1.071 BOPS + 0.69 = 1.761
    48. Russell Martin = .280 avg. + .781 = 1.061 BOPS + 0.69 = 1.751
    49. Brian Roberts = 2.96 avg. + .828 = 1.124 BOPS + 0.57 = 1.694
    50. Shane Victorino = .293 + .799 = 1.092 BOPS + 0.58 = 1.672
    51. Jimmy Rollins = .277 avg. + .786 = 1.063 BOPS + 0.59 = 1.653
    52. Ryan Church = .276 avg. + .785 = 1.061 BOPS + 0.49 = 1.551
    53. Ichiro = .311 avg. + .747 = 1.058 BOPS + 0.42 = 1.478

    *names added were Aubrey Huff, Carlos Pena, Dan Uggla, Brian Roberts, Derek Lee

  178. Griffin Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 1:54 pm

    Werth: “There had to be something sweet about Werth winning a ring with the Gillick-era Phillies after starting out his career as Gillick’s first-round pick in ‘97. Back then Werth was a gigantic catcher whose size caused concern for his long-term health, but his struggles with keeping healthy stayed with him even after he moved out from behind the plate. While something had to be done about Jenkins’ slack bat, Werth’s not really an effective everyday player. He doesn’t hit for much power against right-handers, so his is the Gary Roenicke suite of skills-plus defense, good speed, and a bat stained by repeated lefty killing. Add in his earned reputation for fragility, and it’s just as well that he’ll get spotted by Stars and perhaps even Jenkins in ‘09″

    Werth: 83 R, 22 HR, 67 RBI, 14 SB, .283 BA

  179. Griffin Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 1:58 pm

    Ibanez: “Ibanez defied Father Time again last season, posting a line almost identical to those of his previous two campaigns, along with slightly less horrendous defense than he provided in 2007, as his late-career peak rolls on. Despite being one of the oldest and least-talented of the various defensively challenged corner outfielders for sale to the highest bidder this offseason, Ibanez became the first to sign, fleeing Seattle’s incipient rebuilding effort in favor of the greener pastures of the defending world champion. PECOTA foresees more of the same, as the move to the weaker league and the better hitter’s park should offset any age-related slippage, but three-year contracts with 36-year-olds have a way of backfiring, even if the player in question has never been much better at the plate.”

    Ibanez: 77 R, 22 HR, 88 RBI, 2 SB, .289 BA

    Just a note, the computer forecasting system is called PECOTA.

  180. Griffin Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 1:59 pm

    Don M, your formula show how much RBI help Howard and hurt a guy like Ichiro.

  181. Don M Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 2:21 pm

    I’m going to add Runs to the mix too and see what happens…

    SB don’t matter unless you score, it doesn’t help your team… hits are your batting average.. Im not sure what else besides RUNS SCORED that I could use, but that should be the best judgement of all-around offense

  182. Griffin Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 2:23 pm

    I know there is a stat called Runs Created, which is R+RBI-HR, since HR would be redundant, since you score a R and get an RBI.

  183. Don M Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 3:30 pm

    My bad, for those not interested…

    BOPS + RBI + RUNS
    (BATTING AVERAGE + OPS (on-base + slugging)) + R.BI + R.UN

    1. Ryan Howard = 1.132 BOPS + 1.46 + 1.05 = 3.642
    2. Albert Pujols = 1.471 BOPS + 1.16 + 1.00 = 3.631
    3. David Wright = 1.226 BOPS + 1.24 + 1.15 = 3.616
    4. Manny Ramirez = 1.363 BOPS + 1.21 + 1.02 = 3.593
    5. Mark Texiera = 1.270 BOPS + 1.21 + 1.02 = 3.500
    6. Lance Berkman =1.298 BOPS + 1.06 + 1.14 = 3.498
    7. Josh Hamilton = 1.205 BOPS + 1.30 + 0.98 = 3.485
    8. Carlos Beltran = 1.160 BOPS + 1.12 + 1.16 = 3.440
    9. Ryan Ludwick = 1.265 BOPS + 1.13 + 1.04 = 3.435
    10. Justin Morneau = 1.173 BOPS + 1.29 + 0.97 = 3.433
    11. Chase Utley = 1.207 BOPS + 1.04 + 1.13 = 3.377
    12. Adrian Gonzalez = 1.150 BOPS + 1.19 + 1.03 = 3.370
    13. Alex Rodriguez = 1.267 BOPS + 1.03 + 1.04 = 3.337
    14. Kevin Youkilis = 1.270 BOPS + 1.15 + 0.91 = 3.330
    15. Jason Bay = 1.181 BOPS + 1.01 + 1.11 = 3.301
    16. Miguel Cabrera = 1.179 BOPS + 1.27 + 0.85 = 3.299
    17. Aramis Ramirez = 1.187 BOPS + 1.11 + 0.97 = 3.267
    18. Aubrey Huff = 1.216 BOPS + 1.08 + 0.96 = 3.256
    19. Carlos Delgado = 1.142 BOPS + 1.15 + 0.96 = 3.252
    20. Dustin Pedroia = 1.195 BOPS + 0.83 + 1.18 = 3.225
    21. Matt Holliday = 1.268 BOPS + 0.88 + 1.07 = 3.218
    22. Carlos Quentin = 1.253 BOPS + 1.00 + 0.96 = 3.213
    23. Hanley Ramirez = 1.241 BOPS + 0.67 + 1.25 = 3.161
    24. Ryan Braun = 1.173 BOPS + 1.06 + 0.92 = 3.153
    25. Bobby Abreu = 1.139 BOPS + 1.00 + 1.00 = 3.139
    26. Nick Markakis = 1.203 BOPS + 0.87 + 1.06 = 3.133
    27. Jermaine Dye = .1.177 BOPS + 0.96 + 0.96 = 3.097
    28. Raul Ibanez = .1.130 BOPS + 1.10 + 0.85 = 3.080
    29. Grady Sizemore = .1.162 BOPS + 0.90 + 1.01 = 3.072
    30. Prince Fielder = 1.155 BOPS + 1.02 + 0.86 = 3.035
    31. Dan Uggla = 1.134 BOPS + 0.92 + 0.97 = 3.024
    32. Joe Mauer = 1.192 BOPS + 0.85 + 0.98 = 3.022
    33. Chipper Jones = 1.408 BOPS + 0.75 + 0.82 = 2.978
    34. Derek Lee = 1.114 BOPS + 0.90 + 0.93 = 2.944
    35. Ian Kinsler = 1.211 BOPS + 0.71+ 1.02 = 2.941
    36. Jose Reyes = 1.130 BOPS + 0.68 + 1.13 = 2.940
    37. Magglio Ordonez = 1.186 BOPS + 1.03 + 0.72 = 2.936
    38. Vladimir Guerrero = 1.169 BOPS + 0.91 + 0.85 = 2.929
    39. Adam Dunn = 1.134 BOPS + 1.00 + 0.79 = 2.924
    40. Carlos Pena = 1.118 BOPS + 1.02 + 0.76 = 2.898
    41. Milton Bradley = 1.320 BOPS + 0.77 + 0.78 = 2.870
    42. Carlos Lee = 1.251 BOPS + 1.00 + 0.61 = 2.861
    43. Brian Roberts = 1.124 BOPS + 0.57 + 1.07 = 2.764
    44. Brian McCann = 1.197 BOPS + 0.87 + 0.68 = 2.747
    45. Pat Burrell = 1.125 BOPS + 0.86 + 0.74 = 2.725
    46. Shane Victorino = 1.092 BOPS + 0.58 + 1.02 = 2.692
    47. Alfonso Soriano = 1.156 BOPS + 0.75 + 0.76 = 2.666
    48. Derek Jeter = 1.071 BOPS + 0.69 + 0.88 = 2.641
    49. Russell Martin = 1.061 BOPS + 0.69 + 0.87 = 2.621
    50. Jayson Werth = 1.134 BOPS + 0.67 + 0.73 = 2.534
    51. Ichiro = 1.058 BOPS + 0.42 + 1.03 = 2.508
    52. Jimmy Rollins = 1.063 BOPS + 0.59 + 0.76 = 2.413
    53. Ryan Church = 1.061 BOPS + 0.49 + 0.54 = 2.091

  184. Don M Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 3:36 pm

    So at least we know for sure that Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee are not worth the money they make..

    Maybe the biggest surprise to me are Adrian Gonzalez, Jason Bay, Aubrey Huff being so high, and Vladdy, Ichiro and Jeter being so low..

    nothing is perfect, like how Hanley doesn’t have a ton of RBIs since he bats leadoff…. but he wouldn’t lead the league in RUNS SCORED if he batted 3rd… so Its a pretty good gauge of what the players really do to help their teams.

    Somebody said yesterday, Howard would be 3.642 whats?? … im not really sure, but its just a random figure from crunching numbers.. its not really RUNS CREATED because it deals with getting on base too… its basically everything that leads to being a productive player… and Howard’s RBIs counted just as much as Hanley’s RUNS.. etc..

  185. Griffin Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 4:01 pm

    Don’t forget that Adrian Gonzalez is stuck in PETCO while Howard gets to hit in CBP. There’s not as much difference as we think between those two hitters and Gonzalez plays great defense.

  186. Don M Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 4:09 pm

    I think its nice to see that Ibanez stacks up that well… and those numbers were from SAFECO which is a pitchers park.

    Howard #1, Utley #11 …

    But David Wright at #3, and Carlos Beltran #8 is impressive too

    Does Reyes not walk a lot?? I assumed he would be higher than he is

    If I’m the Yankees I go get Manny just for the hell of it.. at this point, they already spent way too much money. .add another $25 M on, and guarantee the World Series crown…

  187. Griffin Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 4:29 pm

    Reyes’s OBP the last 3 years was .354/.354/.358

    That’s pretty good and considering he’s a SB threat every time he gets on base, that means he’s a helluva player.
    I hate to admit it, but Wright and Reyes are two of the top 10-15 hitters in baseball.

    I keep thinking the Yankees will sign Manny and make a mockery of the 2009 season. One thing is for sure, they didn’t have to spend money on their shiny new stadium.

  188. Don M Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 4:35 pm

    Then why is Reyes so low on that list?? because his SLG% isn’t that great?

  189. Griffin Says:
    February 13th, 2009 at 4:59 pm

    yeah, he slugs about .470 while Utley slugs .530

  190. Mark M Says:
    February 15th, 2009 at 4:57 am

    haha look at Jeter, I live in NY and I don’t understand why everyone loves him, other than the fact that he was on a team once that was good. Look at the numbers, and if you think about his fielding he is awful. And Since I am a mets fan I’ll let you know Reyes is super aggressive and will strike out or fly out a lot because he always chases full count pitches no matter what!

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