Opinion: It Has Risks, But Howard Deal Is Fair

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Sun, February 08, 2009 02:39 PM

It happened as fast as it was shocking: The Phillies signed Ryan Howard to a three-year, $54 million deal today. Camp Howard wanted $18M in arbitration for the 2009 season; the Phillies wanted to give him $14M. With the deal, Howard will earn $15M in 2009, $19M in 2010 and $20M in 2011. He’ll average $18M per season.

It’s difficult to predict how Howard’s three arbitration years would’ve shaken. Sources were indicating the Phillies had a good shot of inking Howard for $14M in this year’s discussion, but with another strong performance, the big man could’ve argued for and won something like $20M in 2010.  A poor performance, however, would’ve brought his price down closer to $10M. Moreover, as much as the Phillies and Howard could play the performance market, they both would’ve played the stock market. With the 2010 offseason figuring to show diminished salaries across baseball due to the economic climate, it was possible the Phils could’ve gambled to give Howard close to that $14M again next season.

Instead, the Phillies decided to risk the dough now, lock up the big man through arbitraiton and keep things square. Let it be known that with another Howardesque season (strikeouts and batting average just don’t matter much), the Phils would’ve had trouble getting their price in 2010 and beyond, so at first glimpse, this is a win for the Phillies. But it’s a win for Howard, too. Again, because of that economy, Howard was best to take guaranteed cash, set himself for life and set himself for free agency, when maybe America will return to a strong economy.

The crux of this issue is almost too weighty for anyone to comprehend. Howard was a breakthrough arbitration case, the kind of white whale that demolished all predicated notions of the process. Factor in an uncertain future economic outlook and just as uncertain future performance from a man teetering from Dave Kingman to Babe Ruth, and you have a situation with a lot of head-scratching holes.

But with this deal Howard gets his payday, and the Phillies get peace of mind and possibly a discount. But this doesn’t change Howard’s trade value (nobody will want to gamble on the $39M he’ll make in 2010-11). It doesn’t change Howard’s monumental stature. It certainly doesn’t change the fact that in a poor economy, the Philadelphia Phillies have somehow become the league’s newest elite-market team. And it shows the Phillies have completely locked in their core for the next three seasons. In these early hours, a big hand to the front office.

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36 Responses to “Opinion: It Has Risks, But Howard Deal Is Fair”

  1. Amanda Orr Says:

    Good article, Tim.

    I think it is a good for the Phillies.

    He’s getting $18 million a year (technically, the 15, 19, 20 breakdown).. Yes that is a lot. But it buys out all 3 of his arbitration years. If he went to arbitration next year, he’d probably ask for $20 or $22 million or more. And because HR and RBI are the sexy thing, he’ll end up getting that money. So in a way, the 3 year deal is saving money for the Phillies.

    Even though he strikes out a ton, he is a big part of this team.

  2. Chuck P Says:

    Never felt better…

  3. SJ Will Says:

    *sigh of relief*

  4. BurrGundy Says:

    THis is a good deal, especially for Phils’ fans. Howard is the gold standard for power hitters. I hope this contract motivates him. He has the money, now he might be thinking of Hall of Fame. If so, it could spell great success for the Phils’ offense.

  5. Mazinman Says:

    Wow, Amaro is certainly having a A++ start to his time as GM. This was an impossible deal to make and he somehow did it. It is great deal for all. Howard gets the pay he deserves and the Phillies get the financial certainty of not having to wonder how much they will have to spend on him. However it goes more than that. The Phillies and Howard have now established that the communication lines are completely open. A longer term deal (assuming he continues to perform) is now a distinct posibility not a pipe dream.

    Great job Ruben and good for you Ryan! Now that the distractions are gone lets go get us another championship!

  6. Gavin Says:

    I like the deal, but Tim maybe you can answer this for me. Why do the phillies only buyout the remainder of the arbitartion years? In essence, arent they taking the bigger risk than the player? Why not at least get an extra year beyond the arbitration years? It would be nice to have Hamels and Howard an extra year more than we already knew we were locked into them with in the first place……

  7. Manny Says:

    I guess he was really serious when he said that he wanted to win the WS with the Phillies “year after year, after year, after year”

  8. Matt Kwasiborski Says:

    Gavin- The players also have to agree to have their FA years bought out. I mean Hamels and Howard are arguably the best at their position at least in the NL, why would they agree to have their FA years bought out? Utley did it but it doesn’t mean the Phils GM is in complete control of this.

    This is awesome news! Given all the A-Rod news, it makes me truly appreciate Howard even more. I mean, he is the premier power hitter in the game today. He has a personality that is relaxed (not easy playing here) smiles and he enjoys the game. He is a true winner, a WS winner, (something A-Rod is not) and should become the face of the game in my opinion.

    This is a fantastic move and protects the Phils and Howard. Couldn’t be better!

  9. Joe O'Phillie Says:

    Good deal. He still stays motivated enough to play for a huge contract when he becomes a free agent and the Phils have a great chance to repeat in the next 3 years with all their important pieces signed.

  10. SJ Mike Says:

    I’m just relieved that everybody is now signed and happy and we can stop talking about contracts and arbitration and move onto talking just baseball.

  11. Branden Says:

    The Big Man is locked up now for 3 years, no more arbitration hearings, that could be so demoralizing for a player and an organization. Numbers don’t lie, led the majors in Homers and RBI’s last year. Also help brought a championship to us.. He’s a top of the line power hitter.

  12. Malcolm Says:

    I’m with you SJ Mike. On to the real deal– actual baseball.

  13. justin Says:

    Its just great to know that almost the whole team that won the world series is locked up to good deals. notice almost everyones contracts ended after the 2010 season. Win, which we did, then repeat. Which we will.

  14. Justin Says:

    Great article Tim, very well written.

  15. bloodclot Says:

    overall, I could not be happier

    if the phillies can be big spenders in this economy

    then I’ll just have to go against my better judgement

    and plan a trip to clearwater

    go fightins!

  16. Brett Carducci Says:

    Good move. Howard has world class talent and will help make us championship caliber for years to come.

  17. hoey Says:

    i pray to allah a lot that the phillies beat mets.
    i declare a jihad on the mets nine from queens!!
    may their goats give them the syphillis

  18. the lopez! Says:

    lose payroll weight now! ask me how!!

    get rid of eaton or at least make him do some work around citizen bank park.

    hey adam! shovel the snow off the field!

  19. The Dipsy Says:

    There are other things I really love about this deal and the Hamels deal and the rest of the signings other than the obvious fact that we get to keep the players. For one, I think all of these deals are both team and player friendly. Rarely do you see this. Is also shows me that the Phils are serious about being winners for the next few years as well as making it obvious this is a players wanna play. Other free agents will want to come here because players get treated right. Lastly, and most importantly, it gives the Phillies cost certainty over the next three years in a poor economic climate. This may not mean a lot to the average fan but it will allow the team to understand how much they can spend well in advance of when other teams know and thus allowing for more prudent free agent signings and trades. Its REALLY nice to have cost certainty.

    The Dispsy

  20. Whisky Priest Says:

    I’m assuming that the owners have the final say on budget issues, but does anyone have a more specific breakdown of how that process goes (I know any question involving the ownership of the Phillies is incredibly enigmatic). For example, is there something in the team bylaws that assures Amaro that a fixed percentage of various revenue streams (ie ticket sales, apparel sales, broadcast fees, etc.) is available to him for signings each year? And possibly that there is a guarantee projected out from previous years? After all, I find it hard to believe that a board meeting of the Phillies’ ownership is called every time we pick up a new player.

  21. Kev Says:

    First off, awesome article Tim.
    Second of all, Love the deal, i agree with everyone else on the obviously reasons why its good to have him locked up and the future of the team.
    But does anyone else find it funny that the day the Philadelphia Phillies signed Ryan Howard to a 3 year 54 Million dollar deal, that Geoff has become a ghost on this site? lol hahaha

  22. ryan Says:

    the bigman deserves every single penny and more of that contract. he is by far and away easily the best run producing power hitter in the game today.

  23. Matt Says:

    This signing here made my day knowing that we have the best young core players in baseball and will be in contention for atleast the next 3 years and lets home that we can parade down broad street year in year out

  24. Bill Says:

    This makes one the the best 3-4 hitter combo in the league for years to come.

  25. Bonezy Says:

    I really don’t believe teh way this offseason is shaking out. This is incredible. O guess the creativity that Ruben showed so far in his rookie GM year, is that so far it is a great choice for the Phils!

  26. David Says:

    It is certainly nice, from a fans perspective, to have Howard locked up. But why did they need to give him that much money? They only bought out his arb years and did not get a discount. 15 mill this year instead of maybe 18. So thats maybe a savings of 3 mill. Next year, 19 mill. Does anyone actually think that Howard would get more than that in this economy. Maybe if he had a stud year and got his BA up over .275. But if he had an MVP year next year and got 22 mill in arb, that would mean that the phils only saved 2 mill by signing him to 19 mill (plus 1 mill bonus for having an mvp season). Does anyone really think his arb number goes beyond 22 mill in the third year? If it stays at 22, then the phils save 2 mill by doing this deal, unless of course hes mvp, then its 1. Now on the flip side, if Howard gets hurt or just has a bad year, then your stuck with that contract. All Im saying is that now Howard has no financial motivation to push him, his hitting has gotten worse the last three seasons, his fielding is pretty lousy, and hes striking out at an alarming rate. Yes, he hits homeruns. So did Cecil Fielder, and I wouldnt have given him that contract either. Im sure you will all disagree bc you cant see past your blinding love for Howard, but think about how this really benefits the Phils.

  27. Kev Says:

    Why so negative?

  28. Brooks Says:

    All aboard!
    Saddle up and movem’ out! Phils are on their way to appearing in consecutive WS – something that has not been done since the Yanks 1998-2001.
    By the way jumping quite a bit ahead, no team in this millenium has repeated as WS champ.
    If (dreaming now!) the Phils could pull this off again this year and repeat as WS champions, would that automatically qualify them as “The Team of the Decade”?
    How freakin sweet does that sound!!
    Yanks have been in the WS 3 times, winning once (vs the Muts). Boston has won twice, 04 and 07. No consecutive wins – history in the making and we are there?
    Sigh, its late and I dream pleasant dreams…

  29. estrada Says:

    brooks…keep dreaming

  30. From Section 113 Says:

    Brook-
    No matter what happens this season, the team of the decade has been the Red Sox. They transformed form a franchise that was linked to Bunky Dent and the team never capable to win a championship and into a world class organization with 2 championships and 2 of the greatest combacks in post season series’ history.

  31. Chuck P Says:

    I would consider the Red Sox the best team but the Phillies have certainly made their mark as the best NL team of this decade… the only team in the NL that has won 85 games or better over the past 6 seasons.

    This deal represents a tipping point for this organization. Amaro was on 610 this morning and I took a lot away from what he was saying. First, the budget is highly linked to the fans in the stadium… the extra revenue that the fans have generated over the past few seasons has allowed Amaro to do what he has done. Unlike NY and BOS that have phenomenal outside revenue streams (NYY Network and Red Sox nation), the Phillies strongly rely on ticket sales and the ballpark revenue; that means, they need to put a good product on the field and as long as things continue to trend in the right direction, the ownership is willing to open the checkbook. The new ballpark was the catalyst for what we see today; the new ballpark and the experience that comes with spending a day at the bank.

    With all of that being said, Amaro was quick to point out that this team is not all about Howard. He made it pretty clear that he is not putting his future solely on Howard’s shoulders. This three year deal buys out arbitration but he’ll leave all of his options open… there is a $1 million payout that would be due if Howard was traded before November 2010 but I don’t think that would eliminate the possibility of a trade (especially beyond 2010). To me, this deal and that clause proves that Howard does want to be here. He would love to stay in Philadelphia and win more championships. The incentives are there for him to make some extra coin, win some championships and I think that he’ll be on a mission (an early arrival at spring training should say something to all of us). One other thing that I thought was interesting… Seth Everett said that the key to getting this deal done was Amaro’s experience as an assistant GM. The Asst. GM’s are like the good cops… the guys who get to smooth talk the players and befriend them… Gillick had to be the tough cop and whatever he did really turned off Howard. Amaro was able to use that in his favor to tailor the negotiations in a way that would make Howard feel comfortable. I don’t think the money was any different but the presentation certainly was.

    On a separate note… Utley reported to spring training this weekend. He’s progressing well and Amaro did not rule out the possibility of opening day. He said that Chase is basically working 24 hours a day to get back on the field and sometimes they have to tell him to slow down. Gotta love Utley…

  32. Chuck P Says:

    LONGEST POST EVER>>> MY APOLOGIES

  33. Richie Allen Says:

    The thing I’m really psyched out about is this:On comcast this morning ,Amaro said that Howard has been not only working out for at least a month ,but he’s been working with someone on his defense also,down in Fla.
    I think our prospects are good boys.

  34. Don M Says:

    I wouldn’t be surprised to hear that MOST of the team reports by this weekend, a few days ahead of schedule..

  35. Richie Allen Says:

    Let the fun begin…….Lets Go Phils….Cant Wait!

  36. Manny Says:

    Dear Ryan Howard: now that you’re a 18M/year player, you are NOT allowed to have shitty Aprils (like you did past season). I know expect the 2006 version… so the pressure is on. You wanted this…now it’s time to perform.

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