Evaluating Trade Chips As Needs Grow

Posted by Ben Seal, Thu, June 18, 2009 07:00 PM

Six weeks from Friday, the trade deadline will pass. If the Phillies hope to make another run in the postseason they will almost certainly need to make at least one or two moves to pick up additional pieces – starters, relievers, bench bats.

Yesterday we ran through just about every one of the starting pitchers that could potentially be dealt by July 31, but what would it take to get them? The package the Phils would have to shell out depends on a number of things, including the team on the other end of the deal, the years left on his contract and most importantly, the quality of the pitcher. A deal for Brad Penny would look much different from one for Cliff Lee – and light years from what it would take to get Roy Halladay.

The depth the Phillies have developed on the farm allows them to be a major player at the deadline, assuming their targets are available in a trade. There are several top-flight minor leaguers that teams will ask for in return and be flatly denied – players that are too important to the Phillies future to be traded for a rental pitcher or a right-handed bat off the bench.

From prized to piece

Right-handed pitchers Kyle Drabek and Jason Knapp immediately come to mind as the two pitchers the team would most like to hold. Knapp is not yet 19 and already projects with a mid-90s fastball and three other pitches that are average or above-average, making him one of the few prospects who might be completely off limits. Drabek has only taken three turns at double-A Reading, but from all reports is continuing to grow and become the prized pitching prospect of the organization.

Outfielders Dominic Brown (Clearwater) and Michael Taylor (Reading) are the two bats most likely to be the centerpiece of a deal over the next six weeks. Both have the combination of power and speed in the outfield that leaves other teams salivating. The Phils would obviously like to keep them both in the system and they would probably be untouchable unless the return is a pitcher in the mold of Roy Oswalt, Lee or Halladay.

Perhaps the most intriguing name that might be involved in a deal is Carlos Carrasco, the Venezuelan hurler that appears to have stalled at the top level of the minor leagues in Lehigh Valley. Carrasco, still considered the top pitcher in the system, was bumped by Brown from his perch as the No. 1 Phils prospect (according to Baseball America) this season. His 5.57 ERA with the Iron Pigs this year gives reason to doubt whether he will become the top-end starter most had expected. But he could very well turn out to be the pitching centerpiece of a deal, giving a team hope of gaining an ace down the road.

Shortstop Jason Donald and catcher Lou Marson have been underwhelming this year at Lehigh Valley, but either could work well as a secondary piece in a deal. Unfortunately, both were placed on the disabled list a week ago, which could severely hurt their value as trade chips.

There are a few more prospects who could factor as either No. 2 or 3 options in a trade, including catcher Travis D’Arnaud, right-handed pitcher Vance Worley and left-handed pitcher Joe Savery. None of them would command top billing in a deal, unless it was for a small piece in return.

Three players from the Phils major league roster will also be at the forefront in trade discussions as the deadline approaches, giving the team another dimension in trade talks. left-handed pitchers JA Happ and Antonio Bastardo have both shown they are – at least on some level – prepared to pitch in the majors. And John Mayberry, Jr. is about to get a long, extended look in the outfield, giving the team a chance to bump his value up a couple of notches, as well.

Putting it together

So what would it take to get a starter?

For one of the elite talents (injured or not) – Halladay, Oswalt, Lee, Jake Peavy, Erik Bedard – it would probably take one of the big bats (Taylor, Brown), as well as one of the top pitchers (Carrasco, Happ, Bastardo) and someone like Marson or Donald. For example, when the White Sox had a deal in place to get Jake Peavy, they were offering Aaron Poreda (No. 63 by Baseball America), Clayton Richard (on the ChiSox) and two more prospects. The Phillies equivalent would be Carrasco, Happ and a few mid-level prospects. The package needed for any of the elite pitchers would be somewhere right around there.

Someone like Brad Penny, who is right now blocking John Smoltz and Clay Buchholz from joining the Red Sox rotation, could come as cheap as Donald if he comes back healthy before the deadline. Jarrod Washburn wouldn’t be far off, maybe taking Bastardo and a lower prospect.

The Phillies have six weeks to make the necessary moves, and there is plenty of time for trade values to rise and fall before then, but if they are going to go all in and strengthen the major league club, the farm system could take a significant hit this summer.

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30 Responses to “Evaluating Trade Chips As Needs Grow”

  1. Bruce Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 7:14 pm

    “..There are several top-flight minor leaguers that teams will ask for in return and be flatly denied – players that are too important to the Phillies future to be traded for a rental pitcher or a right-handed bat off the bench.”

    I hope Amaro has those same thoughts.

  2. The Dipsy Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 7:20 pm

    If we could deal “big bat” (Brown, Taylor) a “top pitcher” (Carrasco, Happ, Bastardo) and a Donald, who quickly is projecting to be Rick Schu, for Halladay, I would drive all three of those guys to the airport. I don’t think that will get it done. Maybe, just maybe, someone will overvalue Savery. Or are we undervaluing him? Hey man, he is 8-1, 3.47. He’s just gotta be doing something right. I just wanna see something like that happen without us getting raped. Personally, I’m in the Halladay or Lee or bust mode. Or both :)

    The Dipsy

  3. Doc Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 8:12 pm

    I am not interested in Bedard. Peavy is not interested in Philly. I think the Phillies severly hurt their chances at Halliday by getting swept by the Jays. I think they should make a run at Cliff Lee – Carrasco, Donald and maybe Kendrick – think thats enough?

  4. The Dipsy Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 8:19 pm

    Maybe if you took Kendrick out of the deal and just made it Carrasco and Donald.

    The Dipsy

  5. Ben Seal Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 8:22 pm

    I can’t imagine a team having interest in Kendrick right now, to be honest. Not after what he did last season and what he’s done this season in the minors and (briefly) in the majors. He could be the third or fourth guy in on a deal if the top two are great, but I don’t think many GMs would see him as anything more.

  6. The Dipsy Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 8:29 pm

    Ben, what leads you to believe that teams would covet Carrasco, Happ, and Bastardo more than Drabek?

    The Dipsy

  7. Ben Seal Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 8:41 pm

    Oh, I definitely think teams would covet Drabek more than the other options. But from listening to Ruben Amaro talk recently and seeing the way the organization has operated in the past, I have to believe that Drabek is off limits. If Roy Halladay is on the table, giving away Drabek would be acceptable, but for anything less than the best I don’t think the Phils would give up their best. Or at least potential best.

  8. mikeB Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 9:16 pm

    I personally do not want to see Joe Savery go. He is going to be a good pitcher down the road, hopefully for the Phillies, after he gets some seasoning at the AAA level. Has the potential to be a good hitting pitcher too. Was a pitching and batting star at Rice. I like that trade package that Doc posted about for Cliff Lee. I think that the Phils could handle giving away Carrasaco, Donald and Kendrick.

  9. Geoff Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 9:31 pm

    Cliff Lee has a cheap 8M option next year, so tack on another B Prospect. I think it would require 1A, 2B, and a fill-in like Kendrick.

    So while Bedard might take Taylor (A), Carrasco (B), and a Kendrick/Worley/Carpenter type – Lee would require us to add someone like Donald or Marson to the deal.

    Forget about Peavy – too injured and a basketbase fruitcake wierdo. Forget about Halladay – the GM said he would basically get fired if he traded him.

    I think theyre going to have to release Jamie Moyer and pick up a cheaper RH SP. The top gettable guy out there to me (who you can PROJECT will be available & healthy) is Cliff Lee. To balance that, you have to remove the worst LH SP on the team and create room for a RHP. So Moyer being the worst goes. Marquis or Penny would be acceptable replacements for Moyer but neither is good enough to become the number 2 guy – but Cliff Lee is.

  10. Geoff Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 9:35 pm

    Why would the Indians trade Cliff Lee – CY Young Winner – signed cheaply next season – for Carrasco (basket case wierdo with good stuff), Donald (utilityplayer), and Kendrick (failed major league starter)?

    If he Indians GM did that then he should get fired. Thats a HORRIBLE trade for the Indians. Thats GIVING him away for almost nothing in basball logic. You have to give to get. No frontline pitcher is coming here unless Brown or Taylor is in the deal – period. And if we get away with keeping them and getting that guy then we came out ahead in the deal.

  11. Joel V. Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 9:59 pm

    I agree with dipsy, if what Tim says it’s gng to cost for a Halladay or a Cliff Lee, then by all means go for it! Honestly that would be a good deal for us! In truth though, I think it’s gng to cost a little more than Carrasco, Happ and a few mid-level prospects…

  12. Dan Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 10:02 pm

    My K-Rod is about to shut down the oriels. Watch out we are coming to get you. LET’S GO METS

  13. metheadfred Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 10:09 pm

    13 and 19 at home …almost as bad as Washington 10-22…..but look at the salary difference….85 strike outs for Howard already….who’da thunk it

  14. cm Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 10:12 pm

    HAHAHA K-Rod blew the save, Orioles win 5-4 in a walk-off victory.

  15. cm Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 10:12 pm

    What now Dan?

  16. Phil Says:
    June 18th, 2009 at 10:47 pm

    I think Berry, Marson, Donald, Carrasco, and one of either Happ or Bastardo could land a front line starter.

  17. DeanH Says:
    June 19th, 2009 at 12:15 am

    I am really hesitant to give up alot for a pitcher UNLESS it is long term, atleast 2 and 1/2 years. And, if we give up Bastardo or Happ, the other pitcher MUST be a top tier pitcher. Personally, I would rather try the young guys for another month and see where their records are at that time (Happ and Bastardo).

  18. Phil Says:
    June 19th, 2009 at 1:04 am

    But W-L record is irrelevant to a pitchers abilities.

  19. Manny Says:
    June 19th, 2009 at 1:37 am

    If you let Happ go, then you’d have at least 2 rotation spots to take care of… Doesn’t look like a smart move…Happ is doing a very good job in this rotation right now.

  20. Dan Says:
    June 19th, 2009 at 2:12 am

    I am here, we will be in first on Sunday. LET’S GO METS. We are better and stronger. K-Rod is hurt, just like yuor closer

  21. Dan Says:
    June 19th, 2009 at 3:24 am

    (Phillies Fan Dan, also the better Dan)

    Yes, Dan, you will be in first by Sunday. Just like you were right about KRod, huh? That worked out great for you. Keep posting, though, seems like your posts are Jinxing your own team, keep up the good work.

  22. The Dipsy Says:
    June 19th, 2009 at 3:27 am

    I knew it was only a matter of time. We’ve got to win and we’ve got to win now.

  23. Dan Says:
    June 19th, 2009 at 3:32 am

    On and by the way, Dan, get some class.

    -+-LETS GO PHILLIES-+-

  24. » Ibanez on DL, Phillies Swept by Toronto in Slugfest | Blogging-Baseball.com Says:
    June 19th, 2009 at 5:00 am

    [...] consistency and cover the void left by Ibanez’s absence. Regarding possible trade moves, The Phillies Nation blog evaluates both talent available for possible trade as well as Phillies trading… in the Minor league [...]

  25. Rich Says:
    June 19th, 2009 at 8:05 am

    You guys are all smoking crack. The Phillies don’t trade for top tier pitchers! Get set for disappointment, because they will end up with someone like Jason Marquis.

  26. Steve-o Says:
    June 19th, 2009 at 8:31 am

    I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again. Brady Penny is coming. No one else.

  27. Steve-o Says:
    June 19th, 2009 at 10:13 am

    Article in Daily News today about Michael Taylor. Worth a read.
    http://www.philly.com/dailynews/sports/columnists/20090619_Bill_Conlin__Phillies_prospect_Michael_Taylor_a_heavyweight_five-tooler.html

  28. beta sigma shag Says:
    June 19th, 2009 at 11:04 am

    I agree we need some starting pitching help, but trading JA Happ is not the answer, I would Bastardo go if some one wanted him. Donald could go to since he has little chance in cracking this line up any time soon, same as Marson, since there is another kid behind him that is suppose to be better, and Ruiz will start for 3 or 4 more years. IMO you dont sell the farm for an “ace” it is just not worth it, small moves getting second tier pitcher is what usually works out better.

    Like I have said in the past, don’t rush it when you push to hard you usually get burned, the FO made some good moves last year, even after the trade deadline so I still have faith they will make good moves in due time

  29. ryan Says:
    June 19th, 2009 at 2:35 pm

    Bill Conlin had a piece in the DN today comparing Michael Taylor to Dave Winfield. Calling his a complete 5-tool player who sprays the balls in the gap and could one day have Ryan Howard like power.

    and beyond that, i don’t really care. I’m willing to part with him in order to win another title in the next two years. but only if he brings back a Roy Halladay type pitcher in return.

  30. psujoe Says:
    June 19th, 2009 at 6:47 pm

    I would trade Carrasco, Bastardo, Marson and Brown any day for Lee or Holliday, but I don’t think either woudl be available for that. If we had to exchange Happ for Bastardo I’d think about it. If we did that we’d have to trade Arnold and a mid level for Penney.

    Essentially it would be Happ, Carrasco, Marson, Brown, Donald and a prospect for Lee and Penney. then you’d have

    Hamels
    Lee
    Blanton
    Penney
    Moyer/Bastardo

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