Halladay or Prospects: Take Your Pick

Posted by Pat Gallen, Tue, July 14, 2009 09:30 AM

American League starting pitcher Roy Halladay, of the Toronto Blue Jays, speaks during a news conference announcing the lineups for the All-Star baseball game Monday, July 13, 2009, in St. Louis. The All-Star game is set to be played Tuesday in St. Louis. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson) Many a general manager has been fired in this league over the term “potential.” For every Cole Hamels, there is a Pat Combs; for every Chase Utley, a Steve Jeltz.

The Phillies find themselves peering at two scenarios; one is now, one is later.

Roy Halladay is the hottest name in the baseball world right now, not only because he is available, but also because his willingness to play for a contender makes him an ideal match for this club. Halladay fits the “now” because of his lengthy positive track record and his position as perhaps the best pitcher in baseball. You can win now with Roy Halladay.

J.A. Happ, Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and others represent the “later.” Besides Happ, none of these players can help toward back-to-back titles. Drabek was on display at the MLB Futures Game in St. Louis yesterday, and he did not disappoint. One baseball official told Todd Zolecki of MLB.com that Drabek was “the best pitcher he watched” in the talent show. Taylor has been spectacular, exhilarating the organization with his five tools. Realistically, many of these players are a few years away from producing.

If Halladay is indeed available for a price that is manageable, the Phillies can mortgage part of the future and pray to the baseball gods that they get another championship in the next year and a half. If they do not win, Halladay will hit the open market, most likely, and that window will be closed. On top of that, they will have lost four or five prime pieces that could have made their mark in Philly down the road.

If the Phillies decide to stand pat, keeping a firm hand on their prized farm system, then they must go with what they have. Let’s not forget, the Phils won it all with a team comprised with many of the same parts they have this year. Again, though, they must pray to the Gods that a championship or two is won a few years down the line. At the same time, they certainly believe this squad is more than capable of winning.

The baseball purist in me wants to see the Phillies hold on to the kids. The part of me that searches for quick production wants Doc. Neither choice is right or wrong, but the outcome could decide how the 2009 Phillies fare.

Halladay coming to Philadelphia may very well be a pipe dream. The more likely decision will be to keep the minor leagues intact and concentrate on preserving a team that can win. It will also save a franchise known to be frugal a boatload of money. A source close to Randy Miller of the Bucks County Courier Times said that the Phillies are weary of adding more money to an already distended payroll. Halladay would cost the Phillies somewhere in the $5 million range for this season and $15.75 million next year.

My pick: If the trade does not involve Happ or Drabek and if the Blue Jays list is not six or seven players deep, then a deal should be made. It’s advantageous to keep young pitching that is under control for several years. The Phillies obviously realize this, which is one of the reasons why Drabek has been put on the untouchable list.

You can’t throw everything at the wolves. You need to hold on to some of that “potential.” Can that be achieved? Soon enough, we will find out.

UPDATE (2:12 pm): According to MLB.com, the Toronto Blue Jays will not allow potential suitors interested in Roy Halladay work out a contract extension before a trade is done.

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151 Responses to “Halladay or Prospects: Take Your Pick”

Griffin Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 9:38 am
The Phillies should trade Omar Daal, Travis Lee, Vicente Padilla and Nelson Figueroa in order to get that elusive 2nd ace in the rotation.
Pat Gallen Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 9:45 am
God, I would do that in a heartbeat.
Brett Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 9:56 am
Halladay may just have been making a good PR move, but according to John Smallwood, when asked about a trade to Philly, Halladay said he’d have to pass on it. I understand that of course, he can’t say, “Absolutely, let’s gittur done,” but from what I’ve read, he didn’t seem interested. Are we deluding ourselves in thinking that Halladay would like to come here? World Series aside, Philadelphia still has a bad reputation, and our “hitter’s park” doesn’t help us.

Initially I was completely ready to go all in on Halladay, but the more I see what it would cost, the less appealing it gets. I’d rather have a team contending for a decade than a team that burns out as soon as our current core begins to age.
Havoc Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 10:00 am
If we don’t get Halladay then we’ve got to hope we catch Lightning in a bottle with Martinez, Carrassco, Drabek, or Kendrick. We’ll also need to hope that Happ and Blanton continue to be consistent and that Hamels gets back to form. There’s a whole lot of if’s in that rotation…
Manny Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 10:01 am
Great article, Pat.

My pick is: prospects.
Keith Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 10:03 am
I agree w/ Brett, lets not throw the “system” to get 1 guy for sake of a repeat. Keep those young arms and bring them up when ready, to create a DYNASTY. Lets focus on another not so big $$$ pitcher, what happen to Cliff Lee, or Bedard. Bedard might be had for far less and is risky but may give the hopes of repeat w/o selling the system for him. I want to see our young arms and HAPP stay Phillies.
Brett Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 10:09 am
I can even see Zach Duke being an option. He’d be a 15-20 win pitcher on a good team. Not a #1 or #2, but definitely a guy who can win games on his pitching and not need a ton of run support.

Come to think of it, he resembles Happ in a lot of ways.
Brooks Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 10:10 am
Every time I think about ‘dumping the house’ in order to get 1 key playmaker in return, my thoughts go back to the Vikings/Cowboys deal in 1992 which put the Dallas Cowboys on the map for the next few decades and buried Minnesota who was counting on Herchel Walker to lead them to the promised land which of course never happened for the Vikes.

Giving up a few prospects would not be bad, I know the Jays are in desperate need of a Catcher (wouldn’t you be if Rod Barajas was your starting catcher?) and everyone could use depth at pitching – just leave say, Carpenter, Happ alone – perhaps Carrasco and some others could be considered. Donald might also be considered, the starter for the Jays is Scutaro (about a Jimmy Rollins sized fella, without the speed and not as good with the glove). So, Marson, Carrasco, Donald – for Doc Holliday – if the deal does not go through, it is NOT the end of the world and something else will show up.

This kind of deal I could live with. Not the kitchen sink, not Taylor, not more in depth with pitching –

We don’t really want to be the team responsible for building another teams dynasty…
Eb Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 10:12 am
Bedard is always hurt.

Drabek has great potential but so did Duckworth and Floyd…If we can keep him great but I say get Halladay, start with Brown and Knapp in the deal, then include Donald and go from there.

Drabek Could be a HOF pitcher, Halladay is a HOF pitcher
Brett Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 10:15 am
That’s what I’m saying. Keep Taylor, keep Drabek. A Marson, CC, Donald package would be a good move. No need to empty out a burgeoning farm system for one guy who doesn’t guarantee a championship.
Amanda Orr Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 10:19 am
Great article.

I’m with you when you said part of me wants Halladay, the other wants to hold onto the prospects.

I think for Halladay giving up a couple of the top prospects would be worth it, but I’d prefer to make a deal if it did not involve Happ/Drabek.
Griffin Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 10:25 am
“Drabek Could be a HOF pitcher, Halladay is a HOF pitcher”

Amen to that, Eb.
Brooks Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 10:30 am
Bedard – Having been a long time Orioles fan, I was hoping for the best with Bedard, he showed promise earlier in his career and you could almost look past 04 & 05, since he won 15 games for a bad oriole team in 06, got hurt again in 07 and of course played hurt and missed a bunch of starts in 08 & 09 – in 6 full seasons of being a starter, only 1 season has he started more than 30 games. And, the phrase “innings eater” – can not apply. Even in the year where he started 33 games, he totaled 196 innings (his personal best).
Now that he is pitching healthy again, he is perhaps just a little bit better than average – at best. Would he be a nice addition? I think so but not worth the price of a potential number 1 starter.
As I told my buddy who lives in Seattle and is now a Mariners fan, it looks like this is all your gonna get with Bedard and not much more.
Chuck P Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 10:32 am
“Let’s not forget, the Phils won it all with a team comprised with many of the same parts they have this year. ”

Except for one glaring difference… well, maybe two… First, we had a #2 starter and second, Hamels was on top of his game… Myers was 7-4 after the all star break with a 3.03 ERA. He was also 2-1 in the postseason. Forget about Hamels’ struggles and lets hope that he turns it around. Most people would agree that we can’t win a 4 game playoff series without a #2… if not Halladay, then who? If we go out and get a Zach Duke, how much less are we actually paying? At what point do you say, “It’s worth the extra prospects for Doc.”?

Listening to Roy last night, I’m pretty sure that he has one foot out the door… I think that a deal is imminent.
Manny Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 10:35 am
Eb and Griffin: That’s way too simplistic. The other side of the coin is that Drabek could pitch for the Phillies for MANY YEARS, for CHEAP… maybe as an ACE…. Halladay for 1.5 years.

Seriously, with Halladay you better go and win the World Series in 2009 and 2010… cause guess what? In 2011, he’ll leave and we’ll have no one to replace him because we gave up Happ, Drabek, etc. In essence, you are shortening (but intensifying at the same time) the window to win. On the other hand, if you keep these stud prospects, you are extending your window to win more champsionships down the road. I rather be contenders every year for the next 8 years, than the national media’s favorite to win it all just this year.
Brett Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 10:41 am
I agree, Manny. Having young, cheap players will free up the money years from now to hold on to players like Utley and Hamels into their free agent years, and to plug holes with free agents years from now. Strong farm systems end up being strong major league teams. Let’s stick to what we’ve been doing.

Pat Gillick won a bunch of championships as a GM because he made small moves that turned out to be big. We don’t want to go all in on one pitcher like last year’s Brewers then come up short in the NLDS.
Steve-o Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 10:42 am
Pat, this is probably the best article I’ve read on this site since Tim stopped writing. Great job.
Geoff Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 10:45 am
Im sick of hearing all of you people say “well youre CANT get Roy Halladay without giving up Drabek, Happ, Taylor, etc.’

Ok, you know what? If youre right about that, then I DONT WANT ROY HALLADAY. Period.

If we give up the house for this guy, I will guarantee you with 100% assurances that we will NOT win the World Series. These trades (NOT trades for good or great players, but trades where you give up too much for great players thus selling your future) ALWAYS BACKFIRE. I actually cant think of a trade for a great player in almost any sport off the top of my head where a team has TOTALLY gone all in and sold their entire future for one guy – that HASNT backfired.

Its fairly obvious that selling it all for ONE FREAKING GUY to win now is a completely horrible and retarded idea.

You build from within and plug the gapws, thats what gets you good enough to be in contention. Then you fill the holes with trades (Blanton, Stairs, Eyre, etc). YES, they sitll need to trade for a GOOD starting pitcher, and if the price for the great ones isnt too steep then you go grab one. Yes, you will have to give up good prospects. But giving up all of your best ones for any player is just not wise.

The Phillies will NOT trade Drabek. They will NOT trade Happ. GET IT OUT OF YOUR HEADS. THey have repeatedly said they are not going to be traded. So just stop it ok? This is really aggravating now.
Ed 2 Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 10:45 am
Im pretty sure marson, donald, and carrasco are considered our B-level prospects with taylor, brown, and drabek our A-level. This deal will either need 1 A-level and all three B-level, or 2 A-level and some change. Not sure where you would place Happ. We are not getting the best pitcher in baseball for anything less than our best.

I still don’t know how the Mets got away with doing that.
Bay Slugga Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 10:45 am
Money won’t be an issue when it comes to getting Halladay. Check out where the Phillies rank in attendance at the site.
Geoff Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 10:49 am
Im NOT saying that if they get Halladay they wont win the WS. I AM saying that its a lock that if they give up too much, the farm, sell their soul, etc.. for any player, including halladay, they will NOT win teh WS.

That always fails in sports. Always.
Ed 2 Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 11:01 am
Call me selfish, but i like the idea of having a team to cheer for over the next decade. I remember what it was like being a perenial doormat while the braves were always in the playoffs, and I don’t want to feel that way again. I hope we all did not forget what it was like before Chase and Ryan got here. Having a good farm system is the way to ensure a lack of phutility in the phuture.
Ari Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 11:03 am
prospects pan out so infrequently and are always so overrated it’s not even funny. What useful playing time did the Phils get out of the Abreu trade? The Schilling trade? None. Same here – send some overhyped prospects with “potential” to one day become an ace, for a man who is guaranteed to be an ace. What’s to think about?
Chuck P Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 11:06 am
No one is saying give up Drabek & Taylor & Brown & Knapp & insert hottest farm name of the week… If Halladay comes here and pitches 1.5 years, we’ll probably have to give up four prospects (two, at most, that would actually end up playing here)… let’s say that he leaves in 1.5 years as a TYPE A free agent… we get four draft picks as compensation. Alternatively, we trade Halladay next year and get 4 prospects from someone else vying for a title. Replace cheap prospects with other cheap prospects… rinse and repeat. Myers’ $12 million and Thome’s money is off the books after this year… Halladay’s $15 fits right in. Listen, if it costs Drabek/Taylor, I agree that we have to back away but don’t assume that’s the cost. Toronto is effectively dumping salary… there aren’t many suitors lining up throwing out their top prospects… we might be able to get him for package of players not named Drabek/Brown/Taylor.
Ari Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 11:09 am
Lesse – Drabek has a CHANCE to be ace, and a far greater chance of being a bust or a mediocre pitcher. Halladay is a 100% guaranteed ace. This is a no brainer.
Geoff Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 11:14 am
The Phillies didnt get anything out of those trades because they were SALARY DUMPS. And ebcause Ed Wade was horrible at making trades.
bretts Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 11:24 am
Everyone says that they want to be contenders for 10 years. Thats great and eveything but it remindes me of the atlanta braves winning 15 NL easts in a row or whatever number and winning the world series once. I think that is just stupid. I went to college in South Carolina and that is all those people would talk about, we have been in the playoffs for 15 years…Who cares winning the world series is what i want to do every year not just be a contender or the Alt Braves in the 90’s. Do whatever it takes to win now. The only person i would not give up is Drabek. But Carrosco, Taylor, Brown, Marson, Donald i would not mind giving up any of them. That is just my opinion. Also i am a business owner and i do believe the higher the risk the higher reward. Get Halladay. If everthing goes well who says that we dont win 3 WFS in a row, anything is possible..
Ron In Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 11:34 am
I didn’t hear anything about any negative pr on the part of roy, infact; I was listening to 950am and he said he wouldn’t mind coming to philly. Earlier today, sportscenter had a quote from roy saying how he wanted to play in the national league, he would rather hit than face the yanks line-up. If everybody knows we’re the only squad with the cards to get him delt; this could all be leading up to getting Pedro, Doc, and keeping haap. Which would leave our rotation to potentially be: Cole, Doc, Joe, (any order of)Pedro, maybe Jamie, Antonio, & Happ. If we only lose two or three prospects, that leaves us with pending contracts and renegotiations, a staff that’s more than well equipped to win this year and next with the same basic line-up that got hot in august last year and took the playoffs losing only what 3 games overall? Come on now, I love the long term as well, but in free agency I would rather take as many chips as I can get.

Who knows, if we win the year Roy comes, he might even restructure to stay with us for a while; might not even charge a lot. Make the team happy before they start groaning. Hell we’re 4 games up and and 6.5 on the team we really hate. Let’s pull the trigger, and shoot for demolishing our division
Brian Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 11:35 am
“That’s what I’m saying. Keep Taylor, keep Drabek. A Marson, CC, Donald package would be a good move.”

There’s no way you’re getting one of the top-3 pitchers in baseball w/o giving up an A-Level prospect (Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, Dominic Brown). You’re trying to trade 3 prospects who are having bad years (although Marson has bounced back some).

Now if you gave up 1 of Drabek/Taylor/Brown + Donald + Marson + 1 of Carasco/Bastardo/Savery I think that would at least be a legit offer. If I was Toronto though, i’d want at least two of those A-Level guys (rumor is they want 3).
Gavin Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 11:36 am
At this point, I am against the trade if it involves our top pitchers such as Happ/Drabek/Carrasco. (Which we know is what would happen). Position players can be accumlated alot easier, so I’m not that worked up over Taylor or Brown.

I will say this, I think its important for RAJ to either work a deal…..if there is no deal to be had, he needs to come out publicly and announce that it is dead and move on. I can imagine the mental impact on the team as Aug 1st arrives and all RAJ has to show for it is Pedro and his little miniature buddy. Not good.

Who else….that can legitimatly help us is out there? Bedard is terrible, Washburn is a poor mans Randy Wolf, Doug Davis is average on a good day.

Haren, Duke, Maholm, Meche…..I dont see alot of options out there.
Bruce Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 11:38 am
I sense a change of tone and thinking here regarding Halliday. Second thoughts replacing the intial enthusiasm the past week or two. I’m glad to see good reasoning and judgment prevailing. As Amaro indicated, the team has payroll limitations and have no intention to sell the farm for a 1.5 year rental pitcher.

The front office apparently will add a new pitcher that is a future HOF candidate.

News item; “Pedro Martinez could sign with the Philadelphia Phillies as early as Wednesday if the three-time Cy Young winner passes his physical examination, the Philadelphia Daily News reported Monday.
At two workouts last week in the Dominican Republic, Martinez impressed the Phillies enough to begin negotiations with the 37-year-old Martinez, who was 5-6 with a 5.61 ERA in 20 starts for the Mets last season but was impressive in the World Baseball Classic last March.

A good move that is cheap with no loss of prospects.
Maverick Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 11:40 am
Its simple.

If the Phillies currently had Halladay on the roster would they trade him for prospects? No f**ing way. Amaro would be run out of town..

So then why do people think this is even a decision? Clearly we don’t want to give up Happ or Drabek b/c the Phils need pitching now and in the future.

however…bats… phils are stacked for the next 3-5+ years.

Donald, Brown, Taylor, see ya… Marson or Arnaud… take your pic.. . Toronto wants a top tier pitching prospect…send them Corrasco.

For those who argue….what about 2014…what then??
I say… if the Phils need young talent they will have plenty of highpaid veterans to trade for a slew of young prospects if thats what they need then.
Ron In Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 11:43 am
I also feel, that if we let this shit stall; another team, in the NL will pull the trigger, because they want to win. I praise Reub for all he’s done with our young talent, as well as how he’s managed to keep four seperate superstars happy, with contracts, but I really would like to see his scouting expertise after he grabs roy from out of toronto.

More Chips bring more money to our market
Brett Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 11:48 am
Brian-

“That’s what I’m saying. Keep Taylor, keep Drabek. A Marson, CC, Donald package would be a good move.”

That was said in reference to Brooks post right before it. I think as he trade deadline approaches, Ricciardi’s asking price for Halladay may drop. At that point, a salary dump in exchange for Marson and Donald, who were A List prospects this time last year, and would fill up holes in the Jays organization, might not be that unlikely.
Pat Gallen Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 11:57 am
I agree with Brett. I think Ricciardi is trying to jack up the price and get someone to bite. It’s clearly not working. He’s under the gun to shed salary and even though there might be a Canadian revolt if he loses Halladay, he may have no choice.

Vernon Wells is owed a ton of money over the next 25 years it seems, so that doesnt help. The asking price may drop by the end of the month, but there is still a sense of another team jumping in. Such a tough call.
Ruffin Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
After what many would consider kind of a sub-par first half, the Phils are ten games above .500 and in first place by four games. I’m all for improving the team, but can someone explain why we need to mortgage the future when we’re already in first in a weak division? Why can’t we get a solid middle of the line starter like Blanton to shore up the rotation? Halladay would be most valuable in the playoffs, but how do we know he’d perform well in the spotlight (see CC Sabathia)? What if he gets injured? Is it so critical to nab Halladay and give away our future when we already stand an excellent chance of getting back to the WS? Why do we need Halladay so badly?
Chris M Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
Wish people would stop commenting on this “article”. Call it what it is – a post – on a blog site.
NJ Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
Toronto seem to be trying to take advantage of how deep the Phillies prospect pool is, we know for them the priority is trying to move Wells and/ or Rios because they don’t want to deal Halladay, they’ll hold on to him for as long a possible trying to create enough salary relief to keep him north of the border.

It would be quite a shock to see him dealt before the off-season and players like Donald and Carrasco have to be a strong part of fleshing out a deal. I agree to an extent with those who say no prospect is untouchable but I don’t think Amaro’s going to let Riccardi take him to the cleaners cherry-picking out of the minor league system without restraint.

When Halladay truly is available and Riccardi is ready to make a practical deal there’s a very strong chance he will be headed here, that times most likely not right now.
Jeff Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 12:22 pm
I dont know if we can win with the pitching we have. I dont want to trade away the farm. I want to see Drabek come up. Pedro is a low risk. I dont think Moyer is the answer. Maybe a trade for a Duke, or Bedard. Halliday is nice but not worth all that you have to give. I know the guys on 610 say give away everyone for him but I dont agree. I like Happ and he is cheap.
Chuck P Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 12:26 pm
MLB TR is reporting that the BJ’s want a SS prospect… they specifically mentioned the Tigers putting together a package around Brent Dlugach, Cale Iorg and Danny Worth… Donald is better than all of those guys. Donald, Marson, Carrasco, Knapp…
Don M Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
Drabek OR Happ would have to go in any deal for Halladay..

The Jays don’t NEED to trade him, so they have to make it worth their while.

It would help the Phillies greatly if we added Roy Phucking Halladay to our staff… and between Happ and Drabek.. I’d be more willing to give up Drabek, who might be better than every pitcher in history.. but with Happ we already know what he can do, and he can be a solid top-to-middle rotation pitcher for years to come.. and his maturity and mound presence puts COLD Hamels to shame.

I would be fine with us passing on Halladay (he would likely cost 5 prospects, not 6-7).. but those prospects would include 3 TOP players, a middle, and a low:

So expect Drabek, Jason Donald, Dominc Brown, and two others..

Or since they were interested in Lou Marson.. we could offer:
Jason Donald, Dominic Brown, Lou Marson, Carlos Carrasco.. and a low-level prospect ..

Keeping Happ, Drabek, Taylor and Knapp in the system.. I would make either of those moves in a heartbeat
Mazinman Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 12:29 pm
Halladay vs. Prospects is not that simple. That depends completely on the prospects we are giving up as part of the deal. I have said before I would love to see Halladay be in Philadelphia and I stand by that stance. Getting him makes us easy favorites for not only this year but next. If its the likes of Donald, Carrasco, and Bastardo being traded then by all means do so. When the likes of Happ and Drabek enter the picture then one needs to stand back and really think about it. Still, Halladay is so good you need to consider it.

I think we all need to remember that the Phillies, Jays, and Halladay are all angling for a better deal right now. When the Phillies speak of untradables they are trying to raise the price on those prospects so they have to give up less of them. When the Jays backtrack on trading Halladay they are trying to increase the price a team will have to pay for him and hoping desperately that another team will jump in seriously and start a bidding war. Finally when Halladay says he might not come to Philly he is saying “give me an extension.”

Right now I believe that the Jays are waiting to see if the Angels, Dodgers, or Brewers are willing to jump into the picture and start a bidding war. Others keep mentioning Boston but I just don’t see that happening. It would go counter to the Jays’ interest in building to compete to give him to the Red Soxs.
Geoff Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
Again, where are you getting that it HAS to be Drabek or Happ from? The Phillies have said they arent getting traded. They werent blowing smoke. Manuel almost had a heart attack when he heard Drabeks name mentioned. It seems that theyd LIKELY want one of those. But if they are demanding that you can rest assured that there will be no deal for this. The Phillies arent desperate. They arent that stupid either. So dont act like theyre going to get desperate and give it all up. Thats what the Jays are hoping for, and no other GM is buying their posturing.
Jeff Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
Chris Coste was on 610am this morning. What a great guy. He was so upset to be leaving Philly. He was happy they let him go to another team instead of the minors. He said he thought he was horrible at pinch hitting but a better hitter when starting. He also said he thought he was a good defensive catcher. He just wanted to start 2 times a week. They asked him what was wrong with Cole. He said his change up his fine. His fastball velocity is down and he is not locating it. He said when Cole gets a 0-2 count he cant put the hitter away. Then he ends up throwing a 90 fastball down the plate. Just like Lidge he said. They are not swinging at Lidges slider anymore. Waiting for the Fastball. Coste was a great interview and I can hear the dissapointment in his voice.
psujoe Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
In the end Halladay will end up a Yankee, IMO. Damon and Matsui are FA’s which frees up $26 million. Nady is as well. They’ll be able to absorb the Wells contract. The Jays have to be thinking that if they don’t deal Halladay at the deadline he’s going to end up a Yankee anyway. This gives the phils some leverage, IMO.

Phils aren’t going to part with Drabek or Happ. So it’s in the Jays court, but here’s what I’d offer with those two chips off the table.

Brown(#17), Carassco, Donald and Carpenter or kendrick of Savory. I don’t think the Jays do that so I add a big chip that’s far off in Knapp(37). If I add the Happ chip I probably remove Savory as the 4th guy. A heck of a lot to give, but keeping Drabek and Happ allows the Phils to keep the staff’s cost down. This works for me, extension or no extension with Halladay because in 2011 you still have Hamels, Drabek, Blantan, Happ and FA.
beta sigma shag Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
I am getting tired of people saying we do not have a#2 starter, How can you not take Happ as a #2 right now, the guy has not lost a game, he pitches out of trouble well, never gets flustered over bad calls, perfomed well out of the pen in last years playoffs, what do you want from a #2 guy, pitches 7 plus almost every start and has a sub 3 ERA right. So there is #2 guy, plus if Blanton keeps it up, there is your #3 guy.

Now on Halladay, I would trade Drabek, and two or three others not named Happ. Donald, Marson are probably not going to play for the Philles, they are blocked for too many years here, and then Taylor or Brown, or Carrasco. That would still keep some real good arms in the minors. But I do not think it is a move you have to make. Duke could probably be gotten on the cheap for B prospects, or some others back end starter like we got Blanton last year.
Don M Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 12:41 pm
the guys on 610wip are clowns… they were all 76ers fans when they were good.. and Eagles fans when they were good.. and Flyers fans when they are good.. and now they pretend like the know anything about baseball

you can only make the ANY deal if it seems fair to both sides..

allowing us to add Roy Halladay while still keeping SOME of our top prospects means that we still have a farm system.. I want to hear what names they are insterested in, because last I read.. Happ, Donald, and Marson were the 3 names the Blue Jays liked..
psujoe Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
Don would you trade

Carrasco, Donald, Marson, Knapp and one of Kendrick/Carpenter/Savory for Halladay?
psujoe Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 12:46 pm
Don would you trade

Carrasco, Donald, Marson, Knapp and one of Kendrick/Carpenter/Savory for Halladay? I substituted Marson for Brown(I think the Jays would prefer Brown, IMO)
Don M Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
psujoe ..I would make that trade in one heartbeat

But I dont think the Blue Jays would do that.. I honestly think that a requirement for this trade, from the Blue Jays standpoint is:

JA Happ -or- Kyle Drabek
AND
Michael Taylor -or- Dominic Brown

I personally don’t think the Blue Jays will trade arguably the best pitcher in baseball.. for less than a few of our TOP Prospects.. keeping in mind that Carrasco, Donald, and Marson are no longer considered TOP PROSPECTS

they are the A/B-type guys … while Drabek, Taylor, Brown, and Knapp are the clear cut A-type prospects
Don M Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
This is from the Toronto Sun sports:
…

The second installment of summer book odds on the running of the first Roy Halladay sweepstakes leading to the July 31 trade deadline:

ANGELS 5-2

Infielder Brandon Wood, a pitching prospect like Trevor Reckling or Jordan Walden. Will Halladay go to the coast? Former GM Bill Stoneman was not known for deadline deals but GM Tony Reagins, added Mark Teixeira at the deadline last year.

YANKEES 3-1

Yankees may be a third-place team, according to one scout who saw them in Anahiem. Yankees are looking at Ian Snell (Pirates). They need a starter. Yanks could move Phil Hughes, plus prospects.

CARDINALS 9-2

Secret weapon: Chris Carpenter can sell his pal Halladay on playing in St. Louis. Players usually rate St. Louis the best city to play in.

PHILLIES 4-1

Training in Clearwater means 10 weeks at the Halladay home in Oldsmar, Fla. Phils say they have prospects but talk is that the Jays don’t like them, or rather the ones they’ll move. The Jays like J.A. Happ, who has been better than Cole Hamels. Shortstop Jason Donald and catcher Lou Marson have been mentioned.
Geoff Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 12:59 pm
The most I could see the Phillies surrendering is one of those outfield prospects. Im no longer even going to acknowledge or entertain the idea of trading Happ or Drabek because its SO absurd. Youre creating a hole now or in the future by doing that when theyre trying to fill a hole – good thinking dumba$$es.
Bruce Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
Waiting word for Phillies front office’s announcement that Pedro Martinez has become a Phillie. When that happens, the starting rotation is completed..for better or worse. That’s reality my friends; no daydreaming on Halliday for me.
SL Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
I think that if a deal floats by that doesnt involve Happ, they should go for it. I understand the hoopla surrounding Drabek, but I’m one of those people who thinks that we should believe it when we see it. Happ is the real deal, and theres no way we should trade him for a hired gun. Who knows if Carrasco, Drabek, or even Kendrick are gonna give us anything worthwhile in the future. If the Phillies don’t make the trade, I think they should still take the NL East, but forget about winning a championship with the very inconsistent pitching we have at all stages in the game.
psujoe Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:05 pm
I don’t advocate trading Drabek, but if you get Halladay with an extension I don’t see the hole?
Jeff Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
The Jays will not trade Halladay to a division team. They will not want to face him. The Phillies are a favorite. They will not trade him. If they do nobody will show to there games.
Geoff Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:13 pm
Bruce…theyll get someone else. Moyer is the odd man out. Theyre NOT going to sign Halladay to an extension. They need to keep their costs under control with so much money already committed to players. They dont have to get Halladay, but they do need to add another quality starting pitcher in there because Cole Hamels has been so abysmal this season. MOyer will go. Of all teh starters who have made all their starts this season, he is the very worst in all of baseball in terms of ERA.
Mike T. Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
You are all out of your minds. How many have you seen Kyle Drabek pitch this year? Seriously, how many? Stop falling in love with a 21 year old pitcher sporting a 2.75 in AA. I mean, come on. Kyle Kendrick had a 3.00 in AA, no one went crazy off of him.

You’d have to be completely delirious NOT wanting to trade any 4 or 5 minor league players, regardless of “tier”, for Roy Halladay.

Get out of here with this Drabek junk.
rivlez Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
Mike T you are correct. First of all though, Halladay’s chances of being traded are ridiculously slim. It just won’t happen.
T Mac Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
A few things to consider:

1. Including Happ in any trade for Halladay is unwise. Why? Because Happ has more playoff pitching experience than Halladay does, and is pitching just as well as him this year.

2. Remember CC Sabathia – Take a look at at his playoff stats – they’re horrendous. Halladay has never had to pitch in the playoffs, so it’s not guaranteed that he can pitch well under pressure.

3. Many writers have said that Drabek was the best pitcher they saw in the Futures Game – he’s probably ready to pitch in the majors now, and he’s a much better prospect than Floyd, or Duckworth, or Pat Combs ever were.

4. I’m all for getting Halladay, but only if we don’t give up Happ, Drabek, and only give up 1 of Brown/Taylor. This probably won’t be satisfactory to the Jays, but in that case, it’s better not to make any trade
psujoe Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:23 pm
Myers 12 million is off the books 2010 as is Eaton’s and Jenkins 15.5. That’s 27 million. I understand guys like Ibanez, Werth, etc get a bump but in 2010. Moyers 6.5 is gone in 2011. 2012 Ibanez’s 11 mil gone and replaced by Taylors 600K. An extension for Halladay is definately workable, IMO.
Miles Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
PSUJoe is correct here. If the Phils would do a sign and trade that would lock Halladay up until the end of 2014 or something then I would include Drabek or Happ. Hopefully by that time the Phils would have another ace in the making coming up the ranks.

Btw, any trade package containing Drabek and Happ is complete lunacy, as Geoff and others have suggested. The package that PSUJoe proposed to Don M earlier is the only way this deal gets done without and sign and trade, IMO. That package would not hurt the Phils.

Also, someone suggested earlier that the Phils better step or someone else in the NL will. Let them. The Cubs and Brewers did it last year with Harden and Sabathia and it got them to the playoffs and no further. In one game in Philly, Sabathia basically washed out all of the positives he had provided in the playoff run.

And for all of the Abreu and Schilling packages out there (which will salary dumps, Conlin calls the Abreu trade the “Great Gillick Giveaway”) there are the Victor Zambrano/Scott Kazmir deals or the Adam Jones and others/Eric Bedard deals. Sometimes the teams that dish out the prospects end up taking it up the tailpipe.
NJ Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
When it comes to prospects your right on one thing Mike T. you don’t fall in love with the stats, you fall in love with the development and what people with genuine knowledge have to say about prospects. You don’t put all your resources behind a guy who’s not committed to winning with the team long-term.

If a deal was so easily possible and prospects long-term are considered to gleam such little return then when isn’t Halladay and Angel with all of their major league ready talent?
Geoff Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
You people never learn. You ALWYAS want your teams to give up all their best young players to go for it all at once with ONE GUY.

that does not work. if you can get him on OUR terms then you do it, otherwise no. the phillies won the world series because they saved their prospects over the years and built this team with them. Havent you all LEARNED ANYTHING from seeing the Flyers do this and FAIL time and time and time again. And they just did it again! Even though I like Pronger they just repeat the same pattern over and over again. Instead of rebuilding all teh way they got a good young core then tacked on a bunch of old overpaid veterans to saddle them with cap concerns for years.

but if you want to fall back into that pattern again by falling into Ricciardis trap, tehn go right ahead. EVERY YEAR you all say the same thing. GIVE IT ALL UP FOR THE BIG HYPED NAME OF THE DAY. do it do it now! aaaaaaaaaah. Well they didnt do that. They kept Howard, they kept Utley, they kept Hamels.

I learned from that. You all should too.
rivlez Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
All the inside guys say how slim it is that he would even get traded but you guys are so funny talking about it like it’s going to happen. Phillies would be stupid to do this. This will hurt their farm system tremendously.
Mike T. Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
I’m all for sitting in section 103 four or five years down the road, watching my 27-30 Phillies play the Mets, wearing my “Back-to-Back-to-Back” t-shirt.
Miles Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
Again PSUJoe right on the money about team salary. You keep sayin it before I can bro! Haha…
Don M Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
Drabek threw something like 10 pitches total in the Futures Games..

and if I remeber correctly.. didn’t Carlos Carrasco and Jason Donald both look pretty good in that same game last year? yet our love affair with those two seems to have come back down to earth..

the whole thing with prospects, Drabek included, is that you have NO IDEA what they might become in the major leagues, facing the best possible competition… and like I said last week, if Kyle Drabek has half the career that Roy Halladay has, we would all be happy

too many people have Drabek penciled-in as next year’s Rookie of the Year, and as the 2011 Cy Young winner..
Brian Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
“JA Happ -or- Kyle Drabek
AND
Michael Taylor -or- Dominic Brown”

Agree. If i can give up one of the top pitchers & one of the top outfielders I do it.

Remember, Cleveland got one stud (LaPorta) who was on the Drabek/Taylor level + other stuff last year in the CC deal. And MIL gave that up to rent CC for 3 months. The phils would control Halladay for the rest of this year and next year
Jeff of NoVa. Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
I know there are a lot of what have you done for me lately people on here and a lot of you need to make a move now cause we have horrible pitching crap.

But…… I say sign Martinez, see what we get, and go from there, if they can get Halladay without giving up Happ or Drabek and maybe Taylor or Brown then go for it.

I always felt strongly about the philosophy of grow arms and sign bats. Well the Phillies are just now starting to grow arms, and 3 of our starters last year were grown. This year we are back at 3 again as well. Signing Pedro is a win/win, low risk high reward kinda deal. If we need someone later then we bring up Drabek or Carrasco.

We have grown both bats and arms which is a sign of a championship organization, not sending away the next tier of homebodies also a good sign. Remember the Von Hayes trade!

Everyone forgets that Hallday has already visited the DL once this year. How stupid will everyone feel if he comes here and visits it again and we have no Drabek or Happ to put back in that spot.

BTW if I was Halladay I would not want to pitch here either. Ballpark is not friendly, the fans passionate, but many have very little patience for any mistakes let alone 1, which we all do.

Verdit: Keep prospects go get Pedro and reevaluate in a start or 2
Geoff Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
Roy Halladay has never pitched in a high pressure, big market like this. Dont forget that.
Brian Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:41 pm
How soon people forget how hard it is to get all of the pieces in place. I have news for you, we still have most of the pieces in place. Adding Halladay would immediately make the Phillies the favorite in the NL.

Sure, Drabek & Taylor *might* be stars in the future…but they’re not going to be major contributors realistically for 2 or 3 seasons.

A good portion of the core is already 29+ years old…the window to win more championship(s) in now!
Howard (29)
Utley (30)
Rollins (30)
Ibanez (37)
Werth (30)
Lidge (32)
The Little Guy Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:43 pm
The Phillies have to be careful of the prospects they give up, most of the time the prospects pay for of a dividend than the actual “star” in the trade.

I heard this on DNL last week, via David Murphy…

Back in 02, the Indians traded Bartolo Colon to the Montrael Expos mid-season. In return, the Indians received Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips and Cliff Lee.

Colon finished 10-4 with the Expos and his 02 totals were 20-8 with 2.93 ERA, but you be the judge on who got the better end of the trade, i vote Indians all day.
NJ Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
Put simply have we fans not learnt from all those teams who’ve tried to ensure success by buying big? All those teams were supposedly one player away from a championship and the only recent ‘dynasty’ was one built by homegrown talent reinforcing a veteran roster.

It’s unlikely Drabek will be the 2011 Cy Young winner but successful teams develop their own players and ensure their long-term ability to mount a challenge by enforcing their team with homegrown talent and ensuring they can re-sign their veterans and add marquee free agents because of the payroll flexibility that comes with having lots of young controllable talent.

If Halladay was truely worth giving away more than a fair share of prospects everyone and their grandmothers would have pulled off off the deal last week.
Mike T. Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:45 pm
Good to see we’re on the same page, Don. Geoff, I thought for sure we’d have the same opinion on this — guess not.
Brian Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:46 pm
“I always felt strongly about the philosophy of grow arms and sign bats.”

@Jeff of NoVa.

I don’t disagree with that…but, we’re on the cusp of winning multiple championships. Those players aren’t going to contribute to that.

Here’s the ultimate test for me. Had we *not* won last year, would everyone still be wanting to hang on to prospects instead of getting Roy? Of course not, so why change now.
Jeff of NoVa. Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:46 pm
Brian I agree, but understand we are still one of the favorites right now without him. We lead the NL east, Our pitching outside of Hamels is been very consistent and some(Happ) have been down right nasty.

If Hamels gets it together, which I feel he will, we still need one more starter, whether that be Pedro or Halladay. I feel we can get him for less, since they really do not want to send him to their division or AL, so that leaves us and maybe the Dodgers?

Bottomline is if Toronto wants to do this now it is all about saving as much money as possible.
The Dipsy Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
This is the way I break it down in my own addled brain:

1. If Ruben feels that Roy Halladay can guarantee him a chance at another WS title, then you should try and make the deal. I think that if Ruben were honest with himself he would tell you that Hamels, Blanton, Happ doesn’t get him there whereas Halladay, Hamels, and Blanton does. Then the question becomes…..

2. At what price? If the Phils made the trade would they get gouged? Yup. But thats inherent in these types of deals. I think that if a deal is made and we can all say, while Halladay dons the pinstripes at his press conference, “damn, I didn’t wanna lose those guys” as opposed to “Good god, we’ve just bankrupted our farm system”, then we should feel good about the deal.

Aside #1 Randy Miller’s assertion that the Phillies don’t wanna take on Halladay’s contract, quite frankly, insults my intelligence.

Aside #2 I think that there’s every chance in the world that Roy has told the Jays that he wants outta there. And now. I have NO empirical data to back up this statement.

Thje Dipsy
The Little Guy Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
Everyone stop with the “ballpark isn’t friendly” crap.

Do you really think the best pitcher in the AL, who pitches against the Red Sox, Yanks, and Rays is really worried about what everyone wants to call the Park?

Good pitchers can pitch anywhere, i said it before, Halladay can pitch in Williamsport and still throw a complete game shut-out.
Don M Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
none of our prospects have ever pitched in a big market high pressure situation either..

I don’t think anyone is saying “Give up the farm for Halladay”

pretty much everyone is on the same page, realizing that it costs a few (not ALL) of your Top Prospects.. to trade for a TOP PLAYER..

if they say they want every single player we want to keep, obviously no deal gets made.. but if they name a few reasonable players.. maybe, just maybe a deal can be made.
…
…
If I was Roy Halladay, I could care less which park I went to, as long as I was playing in meaningful games in August, September, October, and November. I think he would accept a trade here with no problem
Chuck P Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
I would rather keep Drabek (if it came down to him and Happ)… I know that Happ hasn’t lost a game and has looked great but I don’t expect him to be this consistent… in fact, I expect him to go through a funk. Do you really think that a pitcher who is still in his developmental phase can continue to hit spots and get the key outs the way that he has?
Maverick Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
Mike T…. we are on the same page here!

I’m glad someone on this site gets it…
NJ Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
Maverick you do get it! You, Jerry Jones and Mark Cuban get it!
psujoe Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
LOL Miles.

I have to disagree with the talking heads that there is no pressure on the Jays. They opened pandora’s box when they said they’d field offers. if they don’t deal at the deadline it puts Halladay that much close to a huge Payday as an FA in 2011 which has Yankees written all over it.
DeanH Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
Pat,

Great article that I agree with you completely. If the deal did not include Happ (what would we gain if we gave him up?) or Taylor, Drabek, Taylor or Brown, of course do it. Otherwise, I would not.

I suggested on another blog one up, Howard for Haliday? Then we could sign Haliday for a long term deal. Not sure I would do it but I would think of it.
The Dipsy Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
Respectfully, NJ, NO not everybody would have made the deal. We are the one of maybe three teams, and actually maybe the only one, period, that are in the unique position of being very close to putting a hammerlock on the whole national league as well as putting ourselves in the position of beating the american league team AS WELL AS having the resources to make it happen. I am sure the Nationals could land Halladay if they really really wanted to. Love ya babe. Mean it.

The Dipsy
Miles Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
I still don’t know where I stand on this, but I do know I don’t like the terms “sure thing” and “no brainer”. In baseball those terms are synonymous with being short-sighted most of the time.

I don’t think that past big name deals not panning out means we should not do this. But I also believe that adding Halladay guarantees us nothing. Not even a division win. You can’t say “stop assuming Drabek is going to be an ace” and then suggest the Phils will win the Series with Halladay. They are both assumptions. That is why this is anything but a “no brainer.”
Don M Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
Happ is 26, I think… and has now been in the majors (and in all different pitching-roles) for a while now

I can’t see why Happ would hit a funk.. Do I expect him to win the Cy Young in his career, no. But I think we can expect a guy who battles, and has a sub 4 ERA …. will Drabek be that good?

But I see a guy who doesn’t back down from hitters, and doesn’t let balls, walks, hits, runs, etc.. effect him the way our Ace, Cole Hamels, does.. I think Happ goes out and does whatever job the coaches ask him to do
psujoe Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
Anyone like Brian Bannister from the Royals? he’s gone 7+ in 4 of his last 6 starts with an era of 3.66? 1.20 GO/AO.
Jeff of NoVa. Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
Yeah thats so true psujoe and you know Toronto has to be thinking that, get him out of the AL east and maybe he will like what he gets and sign long term there.

I think the Phillies can do this with out Drabek or Happ. but would be fine if we lost just one.

Toronto needs the following,
SS, C and Pitching

Donald, Marson, Carrasco, TBA, TBA

my feeling is we can do that without TBA being Drabek and Happ. We have a lot of good arms.
Keith Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
ugh, more Halladay drama
Don M Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 2:05 pm
Also.. if a guarantee of winning the World Series this year and next.. means that we really suck from 2012 until 2020 … but no Halladay, no gaurantee means just take your chances every year..

then I’d rather take my chances.. like I said last year.. thinking your team has the chance to win every season makes the entire year a great thing..

nobody enjoyed watching the Phillies in the late ’90s and the early 2000’s..

but the Phillies know they need to keep the system as loaded as possible, while putting the best possible team on the field RIGHT NOW … which is why a GM is a much harder job than we think it is
Miles Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
Don M, Happ is a rookie. How can you say he’s been in the majors a while now? In fact, he has made less starts than Kendrick did during his 2007 campaign, and that didn’t turn out so well. Don’t get me wrong….Happ looks like a much better pitcher than Krazy K but we still cannot assume anything about his long term career.
Chuck P Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
DeanH = nonsense. We’re talking about building for a championship not rebuilding. Just for giggles… who would play first if Howard wasn’t around?
Mike T. Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
Aside from Halladay, I would also like to see the Phillies go after someone like Ryan Spilborghs for a bench spot.
LH Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
A Halladay trade would involve Happ because Tronoto is not going to give up a starting pitcher without a replacement plus a whole lot more. Happ is low cost and a high return, so keeping Happ is an easy decision, and therefore nixes the deal. I’m for holding my cards anyway because I like to see players groomed in our farm system like Utley, Howard, Burrell, etc. I’ve seen the organization fail in the past trading off our farm system and mortgaging for an unknown future.

Will Jamie win as many games as last year? He probably can come close with the robust offense enhanced by Raul. Last year Myers came back from the minors about now and pitched well for the rest of the season. The lost of Myers is the main reason for the Phillies seeking improvement in 2008. Will Lopez fill the Myer’s void, or can he win at least half of Myer’s 2008 wins? This is an unknown and lets roll the dice on half the wins. Phils brought up Pedro with the thought that he can pick up some these wins which I find difficult to swallow. I’m not a Pedro fan but I hope he proves me wrong. Let’s see how shrewd our management can be when making a deal this August for a pitcher who is on waivers who would best fill in half of Myer’s last year’s wins.
Craig Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
Remember folks the Yankees passed on Santana partly because they wanted to keep Phil Hughes.
Mazinman Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
Right now its a game of blinksmanship. People keep talking about other teams being in the running for Halladay but I don’t hear nearly the talk about them than I do the Phillies.

The Jays are betting that other teams will jump in and raise the price.

The Phillies are betting that there will be no huge offers from teams outside the Jays division which will lower the price.

Like it or not, if we want a chance to have Halladay AND keep the likes of Happ and Drabek we will need to be patient and let the market work the Jays into our favor.
The Dipsy Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
Unless you’re inventing a word, and I can see the creativity, its “brinksmanship”.

The Dipsy
Miles Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 2:21 pm
Craig its way too early to judge Phil Hughes. Have you seen his stuff?! Since the Yanks moved him to the pen at the beginning of June his ERA is something like 1.09 and he has only given up runs (2) in one appearance out of 13 that he has made. And he just turned 23 two weeks ago. He still has tons of potential.
Don M Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
Happ is the most mature rookie in the league without a doubt…

He’s been bounced around from Strikeout leader in AAA, to spot-starter vs. the Mets, back to AAA, back up the Majors, then to a long-relief role, then in the pen for the postseason… pitched well, but didn’t win the #5 job in spring training, sent back to the bullpen, was great in that role, and has been one of the best starting pitcher in baseball since he was made a full-time starter

so if you’re counting, days, games, whatever.. he hasn’t been in the league that long, and still qualifies as a rookie…

but in terms of experience, and dealing with the cards you’re dealt.. overcomming things that bother you (being sent to the minors, and the bullpen too often).. Happ has loads of experience in the business side of baseball, and shows with his on the field ability, that he is a professional …. he’s quickly become one of my favorite players

I said two months ago I trusted him over any of our other starters, Hamels included.. and I still feel that way right now..

How about this:
If he had just ONE more inning under his belt.. his 2.90 ERA would be good for 5th in the National League.. and 9th in all of baseball.. he’s at 87.0 Innings Pitched.. right now, 88.0 is the minimum requirement for League Leaders
Craig Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
Miles.

Hughes is exactly that. Potential.

Have you seen Santanta the past 18 months? He’s carried the Mets.
DeanH Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
Chuck,

Was just a thought, not something I really considered. Anyway, I would think that could be solved IF they would do the deal but sure they would not. But, think about it anyway. I really don’t think it is as far fetched as it sounds if Toronto went for it. But, thank you for responding!
Don M Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
Can’t go wrong with keeping both of these guys.. Happ’s number are just too impressive to overlook, same as with Drabek’s potential..

Minor League Totals:

ERA:
Kyle Drabek = 3.51
JA Happ = 3.34 (Major League Career ERA = 3.37)

WHIP:
Kyle Drabek = 1.25
JA Happ = 1.22 (Major League Career WHIP = 1.25)

Strikeouts per 9 innings pitched:
Kyle Drabek = 7.7
JA Happ = 9.3 (Major League Career K-per-9 = 6.7)

Hits allowed per 9 Innings Pitched:
Kyle Drabek = 7.8
JA Happ = 7.7 (Major League Career H-per-9 = 7.5)
Brian Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
“Our pitching outside of Hamels is been very consistent and some(Happ) have been down right nasty. ”

@Jeff of NoVa

Consistently what? Our starters have the #14 ranked ERA in the NL (4.98). As opposed to last year when they were #7 (4.23). 3/4 of a run difference from last year.
Brian Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
“Like it or not, if we want a chance to have Halladay AND keep the likes of Happ and Drabek we will need to be patient and let the market work the Jays into our favor.”

@Mazinman

The Jays aren’t really under pressure though. He’s under contract for next year, so they don’t *need* to trade him last year like the Indians had to trade CC. They could wait until the off-season, or even next year’s trade deadline if they wanted to.
Don M Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
Blanton has 5 Quality Starts in which he either got a no decision or a loss… and his 4.44 ERA means that he’s averaging a Quality Start (ERA under 4.50)..

6 wins, plus those 5 means he could have 11 wins right now… but that’s baseball..

Moyer has 8 wins… and hasn’t been very good this year.. he hasn’t been terrible, either though
Brian Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 2:51 pm
@Don M

Phils are #13 in the NL in Quality Starts this year. They were #2 last year when they won the championship.
Gavin Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
Guys, I hate to break it to you, but we wont know what we need pitching-wise based upon Pedro’s performance b/c the bastarrd wont even pitch for us until July 31st. Maybe…..July 26th.

Pedro is a moot point from all angles!!!
Gavin Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
Who else is a legitimate alternative to Halladay. If RAJ can drum up some interest in another team ASAP then they get some more leverage in this situation.

Please dont tell me that Bedard is even a choice. He is a douchebag. He refuses to scout other teams players, he’s a lousy guy. Who could actually help us?!?!

I like the idea of not getting Halladay and then in 2011 signing him as a FA. Then you have a potential rotation of Hamels-Halladay-Happ-Drabek- Kendrick/Carrasco/Carpenter/Savery(most likely a RP)
JeffS Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 3:11 pm
Since it’s again confirmed that they won’t let us talk extension first, my offer just got reduced by one prospect.

Something fishy. I wonder if they also don’t have a gentleman’s agreement that after Doc wins a WFS in the next year and a half and they unload one of the more bad contracts, Doc goes back to Toronto to finish out. Just wild-@$$ speculation, but nobody involved is conducting themselves in a way I would have expected.
Don M Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
Happ’s last 5 starts have all been Quality Starts.. but only resulting in two WINS for him.. (and only two wins for the team as well)

Blanton’s numbers aren’t as great.. a few games where he threw too many pitches, and was yanked in the 6th .. BUT.. his last two games he’s gone 14.2 innings, and given up a total of 1 ER (Mets and Pirates don’t have the greatest offenses ever though) .. but his ERA went from 5.08 to 4.44 in that span

Hamels getting back on track is just as important as any trade we could make.. because if Hamels doesn’t pitch like he can.. it hurts our overall rotation and forces our bullpen to work more and starters to conserve pitches… (if you know you have to throw 7-8 innings you’re more likely to throw strikes in 1-2, and 2-2 counts.. meaning you can get hit more instead of forcing the hitters to chase when they are behind in the count)
Manny Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
The starters have been DRAMATICALLY improving. Blanton and Happ have been solid and consistent for roughly the last 10 starts… Moyer is returning to 2008-Moyer form, and the guys we’ve used in the 5th spot (Lopez, Bastardo) have responded well.

That team-pitching ERA stat makes us look like we’re HORRIBLE and DESPERATE, when in reality we’re getting better and pitching REALLY well for the last several weeks (Hamels the exception).
Miles Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
JeffS I heard that too but can someone clear this up for me….

If Toronto has a deal in place with us or someone else and they ask Doc to waive his no-trade, what if he asks for an extension first? Don’t the Jays have to let the other team talk about an extension at that point to get the deal done from their end?
JeffS Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 3:29 pm
Miles, that’s exactly why I think Doc and the Jays are on the same page about a plan. They must be giving him something to waive it – why give up something for free (no-trade clause) that has value?

I would be a great conspiracy theorist.
Miles Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
@Craig, The reason Santana has been better is because we was Cy worthy when they got him. You can’t say that about Hughes. And Santana has also slipped some this year. And he has only “carried” the Mets to another late season fade. Not his fault since he pitched well, just thought it was funny that anyone could actually carry the Mets to anything other than failure.
Gavin Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
Who knows what Ruben is offering, but you really cant fault him if he offers this and JP rejects it. I mean thats a legitimate heavy duty package for Halladay. I dont care what anyone says.

Carrasco/Carpenter or Bastardo or Savery/Taylor or Brown/Donald/Marson

Carrasco is a #3 starter in the future at best.
The 2nd group of pitchers are #4 guys or relievers
Taylor and Brown are future All-Stars but is blocked by our OF.
Donald is blocked by JRoll and Utley
Marson is one of multiple Catching prospects the Phils have.

I dont feel like we’re HURT that much by losing any of those guys. We’d still have Happ/Drabek/Brown or Taylor.
JeffS Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
Gavin,
If RA offers that or anything like it, and it is rejected, fine and dandy. No sense in bidding against yourself – show me the competing offers from others or stop being so demanding.
Gavin Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
Steve Phillips on 950 just said that the only way the Phillies get Halladay is if they give them Happ and Drabek and Carrasco and Taylor or Brown.

LOL. F – that!
Maverick Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
who is Steve Phillips? and did he talk to the Toronto front office… or is this just his opinion?
Miles Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
Gavin I think that is equally ridiculous, but as you can see on here, plenty of fans disagree. I think Ruben would side those of us who would rather keep those guys, but who knows.
Brian Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
Let me ask everyone who is in favor of keeping the prospects this question.

If the Phillies had not won the World Series last year, would you still be in favor of keeping prospects instead of getting Halladay?
Gavin Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
Steve Phillips….former GM…ESPN…

Are we overevaluating Happ?
Miles Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
Steve Phillips is a former GM (of the Mutts) who works for ESPN. He’s a clown, but I would give him the benefit of the doubt that he at least knows a little about what he’s saying.
Brian Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
“Are we overevaluating Happ?”

@Gavin

Quite possibly. How many young guys look good their first time through the league, then get lit-up once everyone has a book on them?
Geoff Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
Blanton and Happ are anchoring this rotation now. Happs going nowhere, forget about Drabek being traded.

If Steve Phillips is being accurate then it is a 100% guarantee that the Phillies will not trade for Roy Halladay. That would sufficiently end these increasingly annoying discussions with people wanting to trade our whole minor league system for ONE. GUY.
Gavin Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
As a Phillies fan it always seems like we get fleeced in trades.

If we are trading a Schilling a Rolen or an Abreu (and I know those are foreced trades by Ed Wade) we seem to get a bag of baseballs back.

When we want to get a proven stud like that we seem to give up more than market value.

I dont know, thats just my opinion.

No…. I would be in favor of trading a little bit more than right now to answer you Brian.
Manny Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
This is where I see most of us going:

1. Not willing to trade Happ.
2. Not willing to trade Drabek.
3. Willing to trade Taylor OR Brown.
4. Willing to trade Carrasco, Donald, and Marson

I highly doubt the Jays will accept this, even though we are STILL TALKING ABOUT TOP PROSPECTS when we talk about Carrasco, Donald, Marson… And frankly, I think that a Phillies package that meets these requirements will still be better than what most other teams can offer. If they don’t like this enough, then I say NO DEAL.
Gavin Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
Agreed Manny.

But we’re all going to feel like a bunch of douchebags in two years if Happ is back at Lehigh with his buddy KK and Halladay is winning a Cy Young with the Dodgers.
Geoff Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
Steve Phillips also works for ESPN (evil) and is an idiot.
Geoff Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
Who cares as long as we keep fielding a good team that can win the WS any given year?
Maverick Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 4:08 pm
Are we “overvaluing Happ”?

Absolutely….his stock is high right now and maybe thats why we should trade him..

Remember that guy Kyle Kendrick? His 1st year 8-3 with 3.79 era. I wonder if he was “untouchable” then. Also he was 5-1 through the end of July.

Not saying Happ will be another Kendrick.. but Happ isnt Halladay and if we need to give up Happ as part of a deal to get Halladay we do it.

I would rather see
Hamels/Halladay/Blanton/Pedro/Moyer
than
Hamels/Happ/…..
Mike Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
I don’t get it. Why is the choice Holladay or bust?!!?!?!?!?!

Why don’t we look at the other guys in the market that will cost less but are more likely to make an impact than Pedro? There’s doug davis and zach duke and (maybe again) Penny. Why is it that we either spend $20M on Holladay and give up prospects or we sit here and do nothing?
Gavin Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 4:19 pm
Zach Duke is not listed as someone who could be traded. Maholm is the most likely.
Good Night Joe Carter Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 4:48 pm
Years ago, I would bemoan the fact that the Phillies wouldn’t be willing to trade their prospects for big name but short term solutions.

How glad I am that they didn’t listen to folks like me but instead held on to players like Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Cole Hamels, who I’ve gotten to enjoy and will continue to enjoy for many years.

If the deal is right, then make it, but don’t sell guys like Drabek and Taylor for a short term solution. I want to enjoy watching the next couple of years, but I’d also like to enjoy watching the next ten.
Manny Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 5:01 pm
True that, Mike. Let’s look at other guys out there… it doesn’t HAVE to be Halladay.
psujoe Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 5:14 pm
Not being able to negotiate an extension until after a deal changes the whole situation for me. No Happ and no Drabek for a rental. I think that just about kills the deal, IMO. Have fun in New York Mr Halladay.

If we’re looking for someone to sure up the rotation for the season I like Brian Bannister. Playoffs is a different story. We’ll have to wait and see who falls out of contention over the next few weeks.
Papa Thompson Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 6:01 pm
… on signing Halladay, then not having prospects left to replace him in 2010 … we’d have more than $15M in salary to buy another starting pitcher. I’m not saying it’s ever a good idea to try to field a winner with free agents, nor that we ought to deplete the farm system. But we’d have a lot of money to work with in replacing Halladay assuming the other parts are holding up.
Chuck P Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 7:20 pm
Mike/Manny- what other guys and how much will they cost? At some point you have to go, “I can get Halladay for this much more.” Arizona’s waiting for better offers for Doug Davis (who is destined to flop outside of Arizona) so they’re obviously not interested in what they’re hearing… given what the Mariners gave up for Bedard, I would assume that they’re going to try to recoup a decent amount…

I do like Bannister but we’re talking about Roy Halladay… we don’t need another stopgap #3 or #4 starter. We need someone that we can trust because Cole doesn’t look so great and besides that, all we have is #3/4 stopgap starters. That ain’t gonna cut it in October.
The Dipsy Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 7:32 pm
WTF is J.P. Ricciardi thinking? This dumb bastard obviously doesn’t understand that he can get more by trading an Halladay who can work out an extension with the team he’s going to. There is a reason this guy won’t have a job come November.

The Dipsy
NEPA Philly Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 8:43 pm
To evaluate if the Phillies should trade for Halladay comes down to “how much Halladay increases the Phillies chances to win the World Series this year and next”.

I have done a probability analysis as to his value in improving their chances over continuing with their current pitchers. This is essentially a (VOR) value over replacement player analysis.

I value Halladay’s pitching ability very highly and assumed with him over an entire regular season the Phillies will win at least 28 of the 32 games he starts. He would replace the current pitchers who’s record in the games they start at 18 wins and 14 loses. This means that Halladay would increase the number of games that the team would win over the entire season from 90 to 100. If the Phillies trade for him by July 31, he would account for 4 more win over the remaining 12 starts in 2009.

To evaluate the chances of winning the World Series, I assumed that the teams would continue to play at their current winning percentage. The Phillies are currently at a .558 percentage. I used their winning percentage to calculate the percentage of winning the first round of the playoff, the percentage of winning the National League Championship and the percentage of winning the World Series both with and without Halliday.

These results are without Halladay:
Winning the First Round of the Playoff 50.9%
Winning the National League Championship 22.7%
Winning the World Series 9.5%

These results are with Halladay:
Winning the First Round of the Playoff 53.4%
Winning the National League Championship 24.4%
Winning the World Series 10.4%

So with Halladay, he gives the Phillies less than a 1% increase in their chances of winning the World Series both this year and next. For this, the Phillies are willing to trade away talent that will give them the possibility that they will be good for 7 to 10 years and have a 8 to 9% chance in each of those years of winning a World Series. If the Phillies are smart they will not trade the boatload of talent to the Blue Jays for Halladay.
Geoff Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 8:56 pm
Right on man. Halladay is great and Id love to have him, but not for anything even close to what is being demanded.
Joel V. Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 11:18 pm
If you want a BETTER chance to win a WORLD SERIES this year and next, it is ESSENTIAL that they get Halladay. If you want to roll the dice with what you’ve got, then go with what you have. Halladay can only increase our chances! While I love Drabek, he won’t be ready until our current stars are on the decline. I say do the trade even if it includes Drabek. Even better if it doesn’t. Remember, most of these prospects almost never become what they are projected to be. Chances are maybe one of the guys we give up will become anything, which to me is more than a fair deal.
Joel V. Says:
July 14th, 2009 at 11:30 pm
NEPA Philly, your calculations are flawed. The Phillies winning percentage contains wins against losing teams. Last time I checked, only winning teams make the playoffs. I would only count the winning percentage against teams that are over .500 to give a fair analysis. Either way, I am on the trade for Halladay side. People forget that in order to be good for 7-8 years, you have to continute to develop talent. Not just in pitching but at all positions. Somehow I doubt the Phillies ability to CONTINUE doing that. Utley, Howard, Victorino, etc. are all in their primes. Remember the last WS ring? 1980. And didn’t they trade a young stud starting pitcher in rick wise to pick a veteran stud starting pitcher in steve carlton? Remember when we didn’t trade Tyler Green for Randy Johnson in 1993? What happened then??? Case closed.
rob5000 Says:
July 15th, 2009 at 12:21 am
Geoff,

Ya ok so he pitches in Toronto… But ypu don’t think pitchin on the road in Yankee Stadium and Fenway counts as pitching in a big-market high-pressure situation? Please… It has nothing to do with it.
Chris.I Says:
July 15th, 2009 at 12:35 am
I say Keep our farm, and pass on Halladay..Happ is pushing for a strong rookie of the year this season. Think about it….Lose Happ, lose our farm, and come 2010 his asking price will be ”HIGHER” than we can imagine. Happ on the other hand has high potential, and could easily be a 15+ game winner for a much, much cheaper price, and we keep our prospects. As much as I hate the fact of Pedro being a Phillie, he gives us that extra depth this season if old man Moyer falls apart, or an injury comes about. I think were cool…Like I keep saying, don’t fix something that isn’t broken.
j reed Says:
July 15th, 2009 at 2:30 am
NEPA- I am not sure of how you calculated your probabilities but I think using the team’s current winning percentage is a valid initial condition if the regular season stopped now….Think back to the 2006 Rockies, at this time in their 2006 you’d never have even imagined using this model as it would have been pointless. And look at the us, we have in the recent pass, always finished strong. I think using a more Bayesian approach would ultimately create a model that more accurately corresponds to the data. The trick is calculating all the prior probabilities.
j reed Says:
July 15th, 2009 at 2:34 am
NEPA- that is, ” Think back to the 2006 Rockies, at this time in their 2006 season….”
Mike Says:
July 21st, 2009 at 10:19 am
I think the phils should take a shot at Fernando Valenzuela
RyHo Says:
July 23rd, 2009 at 12:23 pm
My gut says HALLADAY but my feelings say prospects. This could be the biggest blockbuster deal for Philly. The Phillies really are not known for getting superstar players even though interest was shown. Last year they wanted Manny now look at what happened. The pennant race in the NL is clear the Phillies and Dodgers maybe the Giants if they add a HollIday from the A’s to go along with that two-headed monster. Also Aaron Rowand is a solid player. I would rather contend for the next decade than be favorites for a year look at the BoSox last year. Tears and remorse. Halladay is the best pitcher but 1 player doesnt win a world series. The Phillies won last year with the same staff. The bad part is Hamels struggles but todays vs Cardinals we’ll see if he rebounds. The good part Raul Ibanez who was the clear cut pick up of the year, who is obviously better than Pat Burrell plus look at how we playing now with J-Roll back. Notice that last year we didnt have him. Plus we have a different Jayson Werth. Even if we dont get Halladay we can still win it all this year. Get Halladay without giving up Happ and Drabek. Its really hard to be better than 7-0!
Bernie Stublaski Says:
June 24th, 2010 at 8:54 pm
I just lately purchased a refurbished Dolphin Diagnostic pool cleaner. I was a little bit greater than concerned after studying a few of the negative reviews. Nonetheless, I’m completely satisfied.

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