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Home Run Derby Prediction & Gameday
Posted by Amanda Orr, Mon, July 13, 2009 06:00 PM
Ryan Howard will be participating in the 2009 State Farm Home Run Derby, and he has a good chance of winning. Howard won the derby in 2006 and lost in 2007.
The other contestants are Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Joe Mauer, Brandon Inge, Carlos Pena, and Nelson Cruz. There will be competition and a large power display with these participants (mainly from the NL competitors), but I think Howard will win.
In front of his home crowd, Pujols is the favorite. All pressure is on him. But Howard will be in his home town, St. Louis. He has had success at Busch Stadium, and could bring that success into the derby.
In 2006, Howard hit eight in the first round, ten in the semi-finals, and five in the finals, totaling 23 home runs. Howard had an advantage by batting last, so he knew how many homers he needed.
Howard returned to the 2007 derby trying to protect his crown, but he hit only three home runs. However, the 2007 Home Run Debry was one of the worst in recent memory. AT&T Park, a pitcher’s park, was not made for a home run competition.
At Busch Stadium, the dimensions are 336 in left, 390 in left center and right center, 400 in center, and 335 to right. It is a fair park, however Howard has 7 home runs in 63 at-bats at Busch. His best shot at winning is pulling it to right, and occasionally to straight-away centerfield. He may get into trouble if he starts hitting to the opposite field or right-center like he did in 2007.
Here are my predictions for Howard for each round:
Round One: 13 HR (On a side note, I’m predicting Mauer, Pujols, Fielder, and Howard to advance to semis)
Semi-Finals: 8 HR
Finals: 7 HR, Howard edges Pujols for win.
Remember, the first two rounds are added together, but the two finalist start fresh in the Finals.
I expect it to be much like 2006, with the only difference being that Ramon Henderson will not be pitching to Howard. Howard will be bringing his former high school coach, Deron Spink.
If you’re worried about Howard falling into a slump after the derby, think again. Howard batted .355 with 30 HR and had a 1.206 OPS after the 2006 HR Derby. In 2007 he batted .280 with 26 HR and had a 1.016 OPS after the HR Derby.
Howard isn’t going to break Josh Hamilton’s record for most home runs in a round (28) or Abreu’s record (41 total), however I expect him to a put on a show.
15 Responses to “Home Run Derby Prediction & Gameday”
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July 13th, 2009 at 6:15 pm
Who cares about the derby. Howard wont hit more then 6 in the first round and be ousted…
July 13th, 2009 at 6:20 pm
I’ve got Pujols with the W, but with Nelson Cruz as a dark horse in the AL. And I have no info to back that up, just a hunch.
July 13th, 2009 at 6:28 pm
I don’t mean to be a spoilsport about it but I don’t take this particular competition so seriously as many fans who do. I think the participants in the HR derby regard it as simply entertainment for the fans and pride and enjoyment for themselves. Nothing more. What other incentives are there? A trophy? Some bonus money for the multi millionaires?
July 13th, 2009 at 7:09 pm
I freaking love the home run derby, it’s just fun to watch.
July 13th, 2009 at 7:13 pm
@Bruce
The Golden Ball gives hundreds of thousands of dollars to charity. The MLB isn’t as conceited as you think.
July 13th, 2009 at 8:09 pm
lineup:
Cruz
Fielder
Inge
Gonzo
Pena
Howard
Mauer
Pujols
July 13th, 2009 at 9:16 pm
Anyone see that Phillies fan catch Howard’s 5th home run? Phillies fans rule!
July 13th, 2009 at 9:20 pm
well Jeff, Howard hit 7
July 13th, 2009 at 9:31 pm
and has made the second round
July 13th, 2009 at 9:38 pm
I thnk Fatso Berman is gonna cry is Albert doesnt make round 2
July 13th, 2009 at 10:40 pm
well Howard got 3rd
July 13th, 2009 at 10:41 pm
It’s amazing Howard hit as many as he did. His old coach was awful.
Give me Ramon Henderson bathed in Jim Beam any day.
July 13th, 2009 at 10:52 pm
matt stairs should be in the derby
July 13th, 2009 at 11:05 pm
Howards old coach had a weird delivery. Didn’t like him at all. To be honest though, I didnt think Ryan Howard was going to win, I wanted him to but I didn’t think he would. My guess was worse though, I had Adrian Gonzalez. His pitcher was a bust too.
July 13th, 2009 at 11:18 pm
Aaron, agreed on the delivery. He shoulda brought back Ramon!
Also, I blame John Kruk.
In 2006, he picked a different person every round. Every player he picked lost in that round he picked them. He picked David Wright in the final round. Who won? Ryan Howard. The Krukker had a good spirit joking “Ryan Howard, the guy who I went with all along..”
In 2007, Krukky picked Howard. Who was knocked out of the first round? Howard.
I’m pretty sure Kruk picked Chase Utley last year. Who was knocked out of the first round? Utley. In the final round, I’m pretty sure he picked Josh Hamilton. Who won? Justin Morneau.
Who did he pick in 2008? Howard.