The value of James Anthony Happ

Posted by Pat Gallen, Fri, July 17, 2009 01:30 PM

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher J.A. Happ throws in the second inning of a baseball game with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Sunday, July 12, 2009, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)Who am I?  I am 6-0 this season with a 2.90 ERA.  In 87 innings of work, I’ve only given up 70 hits and have a miniscule WHIP of 1.17.  My quality start percentage is on par with elite throwers like Javier Vazquez, Derek Lowe, Matt Cain, and, yes, even Johan Santana.  Opponents are hitting just .226 against me, again better than those other guys.  Am I Josh Johnson? Ted Lilly?  Roy Oswalt?

The answer to the questions above is one James Anthony Happ.  J.A. Happ is not a veteran that has been invited to several All-Star games, been thought of as a Cy Young candidate, or been praised as the best young pitcher in baseball. By the way he’s pitching this year, you might think he was all of the above.

Happ is turning in a spectacular campaign – one filled with demotions and promotions – and at a time when the Phillies need it the most.

Over the past few weeks, Happ has been a hot commodity on the trade market.  His name has been mentioned numerous times in the Roy Halladay sweepstakes, for better or worse. The fans in this town have varying opinions on the 6’6” lefty, but one thing is certain; he’s pitching like he belongs.

Any biased Phillies fan will tell you he’s an ace-in-waiting, a cosmic explosion about to turn into a bright star.  There’s nothing wrong with that statement, either.  In his short duration as a member of the staff, Happ has proven to be a winner and a gamer.  Still, it’s hard to figure out his exact value.

Happ has been likened to the former savior of the staff, Kyle Kendrick.  When K.K. burst onto the scene back in 2007, expectations were tempered.  He’d never been above Double-A and his numbers were never extraordinary, but like Happ, they were steady. Kendrick seemed to get by on luck rather than skill, and his wins were the result of a powerful offense.  His velocity was never his strong suit, and his breaking stuff was, non-existent.

There doesn’t seem to be a problem with Happ’s repertoire.  His strikeout numbers are, and have been, much better than Kendrick’s throughout his career.  Happ’s fastball is a few notches higher on the gun, and his off-speed pitches are sometimes lethal.  Let’s put that comparison to rest.

During the Futures Game at All-Star weekend in St. Louis, an NL scout told ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick “He’s pretty good.  But from the way everybody in Philly talks, you’d think he was the second coming of Steve Carlton.”  Indeed, it’s premature to link Happ to a Phillies legend, but the early numbers do resonate with “Lefty.”  Through 10 starts in his first full season, Carlton went 5-4 with a 3.63 ERA.  He averaged a hit per inning and struck out 54.

Happ is right there with him through 10 starts.  The young left-hander is 4-0 as part of the rotation, giving up 54 hits in 65 1/3 innings, while striking out 44.  It’s safe to say the short career of J.A. Happ is more Carlton than Kendrick up to this point.

That’s not to say it will remain that way. However, based on the numbers and by what we’ve seen in the early stages, it’s safe to presume Happ to be a number three, or even a number two, starter.  He doesn’t quite have the makeup to be an ace, but he is far from a back-end hopeful.  For now, the prospects are intriguing. And in no way does it insinuate Happ is Carlton reincarnated.  He is simply dealing right now, so lets give credit where credit is due.

In a trade, especially one that involves a certain Toronto Blue Jay, Happ is looked at as an above-average prospect. Presently, his value is much higher in Philadelphia than it may be anywhere else.  His demeanor, his composure, and his perseverance all make him a fan favorite.  Happ has proven he can hold his own in a tough market like Philly, and his downright filthy road splits prove he can handle any atmosphere. Plus, with Cole Hamels struggling, J.A. is rising to the challenege.

Who is J.A. Happ?  He’s a damn good pitcher.

Happ’s next start is Sunday at Florida.

Permalink Comments (34) | Trackback (0)

34 Responses to “The value of James Anthony Happ”

  1. The Dipsy Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 1:32 pm

    Happ can’t be “Carlton reincarnated” because Carlton isn’t dead yet. FYI.

    The Dipsy

  2. william Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 1:48 pm

    Happ has been very effective so far but lets not start crowning him just yet comparing him to Carlton is a little bit much. I agree he is a good canidate to become a solid #3 pitcher with some hope of becoming a #2 if he can maintain his performance 1-2 more years. I do not thnk Happ should even involved with any trade talks he is a keeper.

  3. JL Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 1:48 pm

    Its funny, the more I watch JA Happ pitch the more I like him. I keep thinking he’s going to come back down to earth at some point and he keeps getting better instead.

  4. Mike59 Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 2:05 pm

    I love Happ. He seems like a great kid. Great makeup, if only average stuff. He knows how pitch. That said, if a certain Toronto pitcher should become available and including Happ in a deal prevents us from having to include Drabek, I’ll gladly admire him from afar in Canada.

  5. Chuck Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 2:07 pm

    All the more reason why JA Happ should NOT be included in any sort of deal for Roy Halladay. I would, at this point, rather give up Kyle Drabek, who is an unproven commodity. Happ, especially this year with Cole troubles and Myers being down and Jamie being inconsistent, is even MORE valuable to this team.

  6. Chris Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 2:11 pm

    Kendrick’s wins were a product of the offense? He threw “quality” starts in something like 75% of his starts in his rookie campaign.

    I like Happ and all, but I think hitters are going to figure him out and start pounding him.

  7. Paul Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 2:22 pm

    Happ’s value is in being traded. His production won’t last.

    http://thephrontiersman.wordpress.com/2009/07/13/j-a-happ-is-the-ultimate-trade-bait/

  8. Maverick Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 2:33 pm

    Paul…im glad someone thinks the same way i do here… i’ve been saying that for weeks now… ever since the Halladay thing came about.

    We would not be hurting the rotation by trading Happ in a deal for Halladay. Or sacraficing the future phils if dealing Happ means we can keep Drabek etc in the farm

  9. Geoff Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 2:40 pm

    Happ > Moyer. DONT TRADE HIM

  10. Havoc Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 2:41 pm

    I’m not ready to declare him an ace or tradebait at this point. It’s hard not to be impressed given the fact that he is currently undefeated at the major league level.

    At this point for Halladay i’d be willing to trade Happ or Drabek, but not both. It honestly seems like the Phils are the only team in the running to make a deal. If the Jays wait till the offseason Halladay won’t have the same value as gearing up for a playoff run. I think the Phils will make the deal close to the end of the month, probably having to give up Happ and 2-3 other prospects.

    If we can swing a trade that lets us keep Happ & Drabek, even if it cost us Donald, Marson, Brown, Taylor and Carrassco, we will have fleeced the Jays. Not saying it’s likely, but maybe the Jays will be desperate enough to get some value for Halladay.

  11. Chooch's Cooches Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 2:43 pm

    halladay > happ > moyer.

    trade. now.

  12. Jessep Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 2:43 pm

    Wow. Talk about having fun with numbers. Happ is probably a good pitcher. But… “My quality start percentage is on par with elite throwers like Javier Vazquez, Derek Lowe, Matt Cain, and, yes, even Johan Santana.”

    — Was that like a joke in a way? I mean… maybe I’m off here but most of his best starts have come against offenses like Washington, Pittsburgh, San Diego. The guy has what 10 starts whereas the names mentioned have at least 18 starts. You gotta compare apples to apples no?

    He had a super impressive game against Toronto… but he struggled against: Baltimore, Boston, the anemic Mets, and even the Nats once.

    I mean if you’re gonna compare him to Carlton… you guys are doing Mr. Carlton a huge disservice. Not saying he can’t be a very good pitcher in the future… but 10 starts

  13. Pat Gallen Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 2:48 pm

    Let me reiterate, I do not think J.A. Happ is Steve Carlton. But in weighing the two schools of thought, I think he’s got the tools to be much, much better than Kendrick.

    I’m not calling him a HOF just yet. But, he does have pretty good stuff and the numbers are standing out right now.

  14. Phillygirl Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 2:55 pm

    I’m glad to see I’m not the only one who thinks we shouldn’t trade Happ. Keeping Happ and Drabek is all important. As much as I hate it, I wouldn’t be upset with anyone else leaving, even Donald.

  15. Manny Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 2:55 pm

    Bringing up the Carlton comparison was to counter all those who insist on comparing’s Happ’s 2009 season to Kendrick’s 2007. A very good article… I hope Happ can keep producing and stays healthy for the rest of the season.

  16. Manny Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 2:59 pm

    ROY!
    ROY!
    ROY!

    Would anyone in their right mind trade a strong ROY candidate? Nope.

  17. Chuck Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 3:00 pm

    Right now……

    Happ>Hamels
    Happ>Moyer
    Happ>Lopez/Pedro
    Happ=Blanton

    DON’T TRADE HIM!!

  18. Richie Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 3:06 pm

    Very well written piece Pat, I liked it. Granted he is not the second coming of Steve Carlton and does not have the stuff of an ace, but did Glavine or Pettite have that either? He looks a heck of a lot like those guys and he is still developing some pitches along the way. He is not going to strike out the side like Hamels can, but he can “PITCH” and that is a very key quality. He”gets it”!

  19. christopher Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 3:11 pm

    i think happ will make an effective 3/4 for the rest of his career. will hitters catch onto him a bit more eventually? sure, but nowhere near the extent they did with kendrick, because he has a wider variety of pitches, more deception to his fastball, and better composure.

  20. shag beta sigma delta Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 3:21 pm

    I really do not get some of you people in here that say you can trade Happ in a ;deal for Halladay, but you want to keep Drabek, Happ has pitched well in a post season, granted out of the pen, he has the mental make up to be a well above average pitcher, these are things we know.
    Drabek has a good family tree, had tommy john surgery, and we have no idea what he will do in the Majors, if one has to go it is Drabek to get Halladay

  21. Chuck Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 3:21 pm

    key word there….COMPOSURE

  22. Chuck Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 3:22 pm

    absolutely, shag….!!!!

  23. william Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 3:23 pm

    drabek is what 21 and already had had TJ sugery and with no way of knowing what he is going to give you in a 1 or 2 vs and established ace who you KNOW is going to give you a run at another WFC is a no brainer if they want drabek, knapp, marson and brown then do it

  24. Kennedy Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 3:31 pm

    I would trade either Happ or Drabek for Halladay, but not include another A level prospect if I did. A level prospects: Happ, Drabek, Taylor, Brown, Marson, Bastardo. Valued in that order. I would consider Happ or Drabek plus 1 B and 3 Cs though. Like Happ or Drabek plus any of: Bs: Carrasco, Donald, Carpenter, Knapp, Savery and 3 of Cs: Kendrick, Mayberry, Escalona, Berry, Harman, Worley, Stutes, Concecpion, Flande, Cisco.

    Maybe like Halladay for Happ, Donald, Escalona, Worley, Stutes. Or Halladay for Drabek, Donald, Harman, Worley, Flande. Maybe even Halladay for Taylor, Bastardo, Donald, Carpenter.

    But I definitely wouldn’t give away one of the two most valuable (Happ, Drabek) and another sure thing like Taylor, Brown, Marson, or Bastardo (Bastardo has the tools to be a dominant reliever, or a quality #3 if given time to develop into that role).

    The pieces are really falling together for a deal to, Jays won’t trade inter-division supposedly, Cubs, Rangers, Tigers, Mets, Braves all can’t take on salary right now, Dodgers, Brewers, Cardinals can’t match us for prospects. Chi Sox and Angels worry me, but we have their farm systems covered easily. So great that the Rangers supposedly don’t have the money, ownership is really shooting themselves in the foot. Halladay would pay for himself easily.

  25. christopher Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 3:48 pm

    re: drabek and tommy john’s, there is a school of thought that having tommy john’s at an early age actually makes you a better pitcher for the rest of your career. i wouldn’t cite that as reason to take him down a notch as a prospect.

  26. Mike59 Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 3:56 pm

    My thinking in leading a Halladay package with Happ is that Halladay/Hamels/Blanton/Moyer/Pedro > Hamels/Happ/Blanton/Moyer/Pedro. While we don’t know what Drabek will be, he profiles as a #1 starter and could be up as soon as next year (though he probably won’t be an ace as a rookie). Happ has been terrific this year, but it is also possible that we are seeing the best we will ever see out of him right now. What happens when the league has seen him a few times? He profiles as a 2/3 type and if the Jays will accept Happ in place of prospects with higher ceilings, I’m in favor. Though losing Happ hurts.

  27. phils09 Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 4:01 pm

    “Let me reiterate, I do not think J.A. Happ is Steve Carlton. But in weighing the two schools of thought, I think he’s got the tools to be much, much better than Kendrick.”

    There’s quite a margin there. That’s like saying he might not be Cy Young but he’s better than Eaton.

  28. Pat Gallen Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 4:28 pm

    Phils 09: Yes, he is better than Adam Eaton. My sister is better than him, so thats not fair. But in seriousness, I put Carlton up there to show that the numbers early arent much different. Kendrick was good but faded badly as wek all know.
    Happ has the stuff to stick around a long, long time, plus is lefty, and good lefties seem to be hard to come by. I agree, there is quite a gap between the two, but I think he projects out to be near the top end of a rotation. Thanks for reading.

  29. shag beta sigma delta Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 4:57 pm

    Happ has pitched well when he was up last year, and is pitching well this year he has more than one pitch, and liked I stated before, but the next post made it clearer he has composure on the mound, you do not trade him, period. There is no reason he can not get better, what basis do you have in saying we are seeing the best of JA now and people will start to figure him out, he has good stuff, nothing to figure out, he is not a one trick pony. Also has proven he can come out of the bull pen and be a success, this kind of pitcher does not show up in philly very often.
    As far as Drabek, I am not saying the surgery is a negative, but you really do not know what he will do in big time games. Do I want to trade him no way. But if they are insistant on getting Halladay and have to give some one up to that trade, I would no cry over losing Drebek. Even if he becomes an Ace in the American League, as long as Doc can bring us a title and resign for a reasonable amount for the next 2 or 3 years

  30. karen Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 4:57 pm

    I am just really, really, really happy that i am not the only one who loves happ as a player and as a future star…he is already at the major league level which is more than can be said about drabek, carrassco, carpenter, etc

  31. Nick Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 5:16 pm

    happ does NOT have the stuff to continue this success. Its only a matter of time before hitters catch on, his stuff is good enough to make his a solid 4-5 starter of a rotation MAYBE a 3, but lets be honest… if you think he’s good enough to be an ace or will keep putting up these numbers, you need a reality check.

    Also I cant believe people are saying trade Drabek over Happ. What a joke. Drabek has better stuff than hamels.

  32. shag beta sigma delta Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 5:40 pm

    Nick you are stoned, Drabek has pitched half a season if not less in AA, and you are comparing him to Hamels, pass the joint,
    I do not see anywhere in my post that says Happ has stuff of an Ace, but reasoning do you have to say hitters will catch up with his stuff, he is a good 3 maybe 2, also I do not think he will never lose a game, but be a guy that will go 7 8 innings, and give up 2 or 3 runs most of his starts, And he has pitched in a pressure situation, never gets frazzeled like KK, and is way better than Eaton.
    Drabek has pitched in AA, that is all, how many can’t miss guys pitch great in AA and do nothing in the Big Show, plenty,
    SI did a great story on can’t miss pitchers in the majors.
    Get over yourself, a proven starter is more valuable than a maybe prospect

  33. Paul Says:
    July 17th, 2009 at 8:40 pm

    Happ’s got the worst K to BB of any starter on the Phillies, Moyer and Park included. His BABIP is .254, which is well below league average, so when the hits start falling a little more he’ll be getting roughed up. His fielder-independent ERA is 4.50, meaning if the Phils quality of defense wasn’t behind him, he’d probably still not have great numbers.

    And never, ever judge a pitcher by their record. Remember, Hamels was 14-10 with an ERA just specks above 3, and Livan Hernandez “won” a million games for Minnesota with a godawful ERA.

    Happ is going to come back down to earth. All we can do is hope it’s for Toronto. I like the guy, but we have to capitalize on his value as it’s absolutely overinflated right now.

  34. Nick Says:
    July 19th, 2009 at 7:13 pm

    shag,
    Drabek’s K/bb ratio is unreal, his velocity, command, and pitch assortment is perfect, scouts everywhere are saying hes one of the best arms they’ve ever seen.
    How can you say JA Happ is a proven starter when hes hardly been a starter for half of ONE season??? Hes doing great right now and I love it but hes gonna come back down to earth.
    Drabek is something special and youre blind if you dont see it.

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