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NLDS Preview: Pitching
Posted by Amanda Orr, Thu, October 08, 2009 08:00 AM
Like their offenses, the Phillies and Rockies pitching staffs match up fairly equally. Both teams are known for their offense, but it would not be surprising to see a low scoring game.
The Phillies pitching staff collectively has a 4.16 earned run average, sixth in the National Legaue. The Rockies pitching staff ranked eighth, posting a team ERA of 4.22. Their starting rotation posted a 4.10 ERA, beating the Phillies’ 4.29 ERA. Despite blowing the most saves in baseball, the Phillies bullpen collected a 3.91 ERA. On paper, the Rockies bullpen appears to be stronger, however their ‘pen posted a 4.53 ERA.
The Phillies hit a lot of home runs, but they also allow a lot. The Phillies gave up 189 home runs, second most in the National League. The Rockies kept the ball in the yard, surrendering 141. Both staffs allowed an opponents batting average of approximately .330.
The Phillies caught a break by not facing Jorge De La Rosa, the Rockies’ leader in wins. Cliff Lee and Ubaldo Jiminez were handed the ball in game one. Jiminez’s velocity was impressive, topping in the high 90’s. The 25-year old went 15-12 with a 3.47 ERA during the season. Lee was a perfect 5-0 with a 0.68 ERA when he first came over from the Cleveland Indians. Then, Lee went on a cold spell, but he returned to form yesterday. Unlike Jiminez, Lee previously did not have any postseason experience. In addition, he threw a career high in innings pitched, but that did not prevent him from throwing a complete game. Jiminez has made it a habit of struggling against the Phillies. In the regular season, he allowed nine runs and fourteen hits in ten innings. Lee allowed one run in seven innings against the Rockies in August, and one run again on Wednesday.
Aaron Cook and Cole Hamels will pitch in game two. Cook was bothered by a sore shoulder throughout the season, but is still an effective ground ball pitcher. At Citizens Bank Park, Cook is 1-1 with a 3.75 ERA. Cole Hamels, last year’s NLCS and World Series MVP, hopes for another postseason run. Hamels’ roller coaster season ended with a 4.32 ERA and 1.28 walks and hits per innings pitched.
Joe Blanton and J.A Happ will start the postseason in the bullpen, but will likely start in games three and four respectively. Happ is a top candidate for the Rookie of the Year Award. He recorded the most wins of any Phillies rookie since the 1980’s. Blanton has been an inning eater, and rebounded from his 0-2, 8.41 ERA start.
The Rockies rotation also includes Jason Marquis, who quietly had a solid season. He went 15-13 with a 4.04 ERA. Marquis allows a lot of hits; 218 in 216 innings. However, the Phillies lineup batted .208 against him this season. The Rockies final starter will be either Jose Contreras or Jason Hammel. Since coming over from the Chicago White Sox, Contreras is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA in seven games. As a starter, Hammel is 10-8 with a 4.45 ERA.
The bullpen is a weakness for both teams. Charlie Manuel is unsure who will close for the Phillies, but it will likely be between Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge. Lidge’s struggles are well documented, blowing the most saves in the majors. Madson struggled when he closed, but his high velocity and nasty changeup are closing material. Huston Street, the Rockies closer, isn’t automatically light’s out either. His numbers are impressive: 3.06 ERA, 35 saves, 0.91 WHIP and a .194 opponents average. However, he can be very inconsistent. When he gets hit, he gets rocked.
The Phillies bullpen has been plagued with injuries. J.C Romero and Jamie Moyer both had season ending surgery. Brett Myers has a 6.43 since returning from hip surgery. The Phillies made an interesting move by leaving Clay Condrey off the roster and adding Antonio Bastardo and Kyle Kendrick. Condrey may still be suffering from his back injury, but adding Bastardo is questionable. The Phillies added a rookie with limited and unsuccessful major league experience, but they are in desperate need of a left-handed reliever. With Scott Eyre the lefty specialist, Bastardo will get limited action, much like Happ last season. Pedro Martinez’s role has yet to be defined, but chances are he will pitch out of the bullpen.
The Colorado bullpen includes Joe Beimel, Rafeal Betancourt, Franklin Morales, Matt Daley, and Matt Belisle. Biemel, their primary left-handed specialist, went 1-6 with a 3.58 ERA this season. Since joining the Rockies, Betancourt has a 1.78 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 25.1 innings. Franklin Morales has yet to live up to his expectation, but he can be a solid pitcher. Belisle has struggled this season, and Daley is a rookie who has had some success.
In two hitter-friendly parks, pitching can prove to be a key factor. As the saying goes, pitching wins championships.
20 Responses to “NLDS Preview: Pitching”
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Brad Lidge - $11.5 million
Raul Ibanez - $11.5 million
Jimmy Rollins - $7.5 million
Jayson Werth - $7 million
Cole Hamels - $6.65 million
Jamie Moyer - $6.5 million
Placido Polanco - $5.25 million
Joe Blanton - $5.475 million
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J.C. Romero - $4 million
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October 8th, 2009 at 10:16 am
I woke up today in a good mood and your writing made me want to kill myself. Thanks a lot.
October 8th, 2009 at 10:46 am
I’m still in a good mood – on cloud 9 – got my Home Game 2 NLCS tix – foul pole left field. Now, we just have to win this series first. The good news for all is that we were 3 for 3 in games attended during last year’s playoffs.
October 8th, 2009 at 10:52 am
Of course, we all had perfect records in the playoffs last year, so the superstitiousness (somehow I know that’s not a word) in me wants everyone who was there last year to go to the same games this year.
October 8th, 2009 at 11:43 am
Its a day game. Hamels sucks in day games. Its also 2009. Hamels sucks in 2009. Hamels is so afraid to pitch during the day that he has resorted to complaining about it. Someone on that team needs to tell him to zip it and man up and pitch like its 2008 so we can save our bullpen again.
October 8th, 2009 at 11:49 am
David… $100 says Hamels gets the Win today
October 8th, 2009 at 12:01 pm
“Jiminez’s velocity is impressing, topping in the high 90’s”
Strange way to use the present participle form of the verb impress, 12 hours after the conclusion of the game.
October 8th, 2009 at 12:08 pm
“Desperate,” not “desprite”.
Unless of course you are refer to the hit television series “Desprite Housewives”.
October 8th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
I predict another clutch playoff-game hit for Chooch today. When October rolls around, he’s the glue that holds the Phils together.
October 8th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
Hamels will step up today…I’ve got money on it:-) Let’s hope the Phillies stay aggressive on the basepaths and put pressure on Cook. It would have been awesome to see an inside the park home run yesterday, but Werth stood at home plate and watched the ball. Rollins also didn’t run hard to first on his ground out….that’s my only complaint about yesterday. Awesome game by our 2 biggest acquisitions…Lee and Ibanez!
October 8th, 2009 at 12:18 pm
Just getting the win isn’t going to be enough if he isn’t pitching well. If the offense blasts off against Cook and Hamels wins a 7-5 game then great for this round, but not so great in the NLCS or WS. The Phils are not winning the whole shibang if Hamels is a 4.50 to 5.00 era, 6 inning pitcher. If the offense scores 5-7 runs in all of his postseason starts, then allowing 4-5 runs in 6-7 innings will suffice, but I’m assuming that at some point, this team will have to win with pitching. And if that’s the case, Lee can only pitch twice in a series. Someone else (I’m looking at you Cole) needs to show up big.
October 8th, 2009 at 12:18 pm
let’s go Phillies, let’s go!
October 8th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
His performance today has nothing to do with this round..
If he’s great today, its not a guarantee he’ll be great next round..
If he’s bad today, its not a guarantee that he’ll be bad next round..
…
I love how at 2:00 yesterday nobody had any confidence in Lee based on his past month .. and then by 6:00 he was the greatest pitcher in Phillies history, and its a sure-thing WIN if Lee is on the mound??
Lets just take it one game at a time.. it would be great to win today, but even if we do, we still need to win another, against a very good Rockies team.. and if we lose today.. its not the end of the world either..
October 8th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
His performance today has nothing to do with *next round*
October 8th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
Huuuge game today!
October 8th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
Well said, Don M.
October 8th, 2009 at 1:42 pm
I understand that Hamels could be awesome today and suck next week or visa versa. But are you telling me that if Hamels is awful today, that he is not more likely to be bad in his next start? Great pitchers have bad starts here and there, but playoff games usually cause greater focus for great pitchers. Hamels did it last year, but he’s been below average this year all year. If he starts that way in the playoffs, I’m not going to pretend that he can just turn it on in his next start. At some point during a season, you either have it or you don’t. If you can’t turn it on now, when can you? It probably won’t matter since the offense is gonna score 7 tonight.
October 8th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
“It probably won’t matter since the offense is gonna score 7 tonight.”
I hope before tonight, or we’re in trouble.
October 8th, 2009 at 1:51 pm
Where is everyone getting this idea that Cole Hamels has been a “Below Average Pitcher” all season??
Becuase of his win-loss record??
He’s actaully been pretty good.. Average to above-average … and again, if people didn’t go into the season expecting him to continue his 2008-Playoff stats into this year’s regular season, maybe we would all relax a little..?
…
Based on his previous two starts, Cliff Lee … so according to your logic, he was most likely going to have a bad start yesterday .. when in reality, they aren’t related …
October 8th, 2009 at 4:54 pm
Baseballbriefs.com tracking back NLDS Preview: Pitching…
Baseballbriefs.com tracking back NLDS Preview: Pitching…
October 8th, 2009 at 9:20 pm
Don M., 10-11 with a 4.32 era is not above average. Im sorry, it just isn’t. If his name wasn’t Cole Hamels I think you’d agree. Do you think Max Scherzer is above average? He had a 9-11 record with a 4.12 era. He also had 174 KO to Hamels’ 168. Hamels era was 36th among NL starters. Maybe our expectations were raised because he was great in last years postseason, but lets not act like everyone didnt argue that Hamels was one of the best 5 pitchers in the league coming into this year. When you think someone is top 5, you expect much better than a 4.32 era in the NL. BTW let me know how you want to send me my $100 dollars since Hamels didn’t win tonight.