Beltre, DeRosa, Figgins, or…

Posted by Corey Seidman, Sat, November 14, 2009 02:28 AM

When the free agent exclusivity period ends on November 20, a rash of moves will be made by teams attempting to improve for the 2010 season. If last year serves as any indicator, the first few signings won’t shatter the foundation of major league baseball – that is, unless you consider Jeremy Affeldt, Brad Hennessey, Chris Schroder (who?), and Paul McAnulty (who times two?) difference-makers.

While the Bays and Lackeys and Hollidays will eventually come off the board, all logic points to teams taking an extremely patient approach with third baseman. There are six clear-cut starting third baseman available (Figgins, Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa, Pedro Feliz, Joe Crede, Melvin Mora,) and two more if you include the recovering Troy Glaus and Miguel Tejada, a shortstop who could easily make the transition to third.

These eight potential starters are competing for seven jobs; the Phillies, Cardinals, Astros, Orioles, Twins, Angels and Mariners are all in need of a third sacker. But of those seven teams, only the Phils, Cardinals, Orioles, and Angels are in position to spend a significant amount of money. The Astros have a high payroll, a bad team, and an even worse farm system. The Mariners, too, have a high payroll. And the Twins are, well, the Twins. Michael Scott spent more on his 12-inch plasma TV than they do in free agency.

This leaves four teams competing over a free agent class of eight men, headed by Figgins (1), Beltre (2), and DeRosa (2a.)

The simple concept of supply and demand tells us that, with more men seeking work than available positions, the burden is on the seller rather than the buyer. Therefore, you shouldn’t expect to see any team cave in and overpay. The exception would be the Angels with Figgins, because I fully expect them to make a push to re-sign their guy.

If the Phils miss out on Figgins, so be it. Based on his age (32), the amount of money he’ll make (3-5 years, roughly $40-60M), and the fear that a player who relies so heavily on his speed faces a rapid decline, Figgins does not fit in with this team. The prediction of 3-5 years/$40-60M is merely an educated guess based on the forecasts of many, but, when recognizing past signings and the fact that Figgins is the fourth best free agent on this year’s market, that projection seems to be accurate.

Beltre

My guess is that none of us would be overly upset if the Phillies signed either Beltre or DeRosa. If Beltre takes over at third, the Phillies won’t miss a beat defensively, but many of the same offensive deficencies from the third base spot will return. During a mediocre/cold streak, Beltre’s GIDPs and low on-base percentage will make him look like Feliz’ long-lost cousin.

However, Beltre has much more upside than Feliz and slightly superior speed. It’s hard to predict what kind of numbers Beltre could put up with the Phils, because I view him as similar to Raul Ibanez. In Seattle, both Ibanez and Beltre were viewed as key run-producers, but here, they make up the sixth and seventh spot in the lineup. Nobody predicted that Ibanez would flourish so quickly in Philly, almost single-handedly carrying this team early in the season, but moving from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park and being surrounded by so many other good hitters can do wonders for a player’s offensive output.

The Quaker?

DeRosa is a safer bet. While Beltre shares many of the same skills Feliz possesses, DeRosa represents a different kind of athlete. Despite a pedestrian 2009 season, in which DeRosa slahed .250/.335/.418, he is a high on-base guy with an affinity for the clutch hit. In 2007 and 2008, DeRosa hit .319 with 127 RBI with runners in scoring position, and compiled back-to-back OBPs of .371 and .376. There would be a defensive dropoff, but DeRosa is adequate in the field. The fact that he knows more positions than Peter North is also a plus.

I understand the logic in going for DeRosa. He would change the recent culture of the third base position, as well as the seven-hole. He adds the local element, as this is the obligatory “DeRosa-was-a-quarterback-at-Penn” sentence. And he is a guy the Phillies have coveted for years, even before he became an everyday player.

But I’d rather the team go in a different direction.

No, I’m not advocating the re-signing of Pedro Feliz. If Ruben Amaro wanted to do that, I doubt he would have opted out of Feliz’ contract in the first place. And no, I’m not calling for Miguel Tejada or Dan Uggla to switch positions.

Sign Placido Polanco.

I’ve been researching, analyzing, and discussing this issue for several weeks, and, at the end of each day, I can’t help but face the fact that Polanco would be an absolutely perfect fit. He can hit at the top or bottom of the order, and you know that you’ll get a .300/.350/.410 line from him. He rarely walks, but he never strikes out. He’s a career .309 hitter with runners in scoring position, and his .250 average with two strikes is abnormally high. As a member of the Phillies in 2004, Polanco hit .317/.360/.475 with ten homers in 265 at-bats at Citizens Bank Park.

Polanco hasn’t played third base since 2004, so it is a stretch to imagine him vacating second base. He’s a brilliant defender at second, evidenced by his major-league leading UZR in ‘09 (Chase Utley was second.) But, who knows. The Tigers are shopping Curtis Granderson because they are in such need of payroll relief, so it’s hard to imagine Dave Dombrowski opening the checkbook for Polanco.

If I’m Ruben Amaro, I offer the 34 year-old Polanco something along the lines of 3 years/$18M. Six million dollars a year for three years is a bargain for a player who would add as much as Polanco, and it would be tough for him to say no. After all, Polanco is coming off of a 4 year/$18M deal that he signed as a 31 year-old. I can’t imagine too many other teams would be willing to offer him as much as six million per year.

Would it be overpaying? Probably. Would it be worth it? Absolutely. Polanco’s steady bat would add another dimension to an already formidable Phillies offense. He’s the kind of guy you want leading off an inning, coming up after a Jayson Werth or Raul Ibanez single, or batting with two outs and the bases loaded. With strikeouts coming at every other spot in the order, Polanco would assure that the ball would be put in play at the bottom, where he and Carlos Ruiz would reside. And if Jimmy Rollins or Shane Victorino struggle, Polanco could easily move up to the 1- or 2-hole.

If Polanco is adamant about staying at second base, this is all moot. But, to steal a line from Ted DiBiase, “everyone has a price.”

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98 Responses to “Beltre, DeRosa, Figgins, or…”

greeninil Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 7:25 am
Placido is a very solid player. Signing him would be a great move!
Dave Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 7:35 am
I couldn’t agree more…sign Polanco. He played a more than solid 3B for us when he was here. His play at 2B this year proves he still has “it” and he’s on record as being willing to move to 3B. Offensively, he’s an excellent situational hitter. How many times during the season and postseason in particular did we not move runners? Polanco knows how to play. We have a lot of talent…he’s a glue guy that helps bring it all together. The other thing he’ll do is ensure against Utley burning out while allowing Dobbs more innings at 3B making him more effective in turn as a PH. I believe Dobb’s dropoff had a direct correlation to seeing less pitches. I believe Polanco is better at 3B defensively than DeRosa and he’s about a half year younger than him as well…for some reason people talk about his age and not DeRosa’s.
Ralph Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 7:56 am
I agree with the Polanco idea. He is great in the clubhouse, is a gold glove caliber infielder and a solid offensive player. He played 3b here before, in this park and knows the fans and most of the team. Let’s not make the same mistake again on him, the first one being getting rid of him to keep David Bell. Although Wade is now in Houston…whew
Good Night Joe Carter Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 8:49 am
Should never have traded him for Ugie in the first place.
Chuck Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 8:56 am
You’re an idiot. You were not correct in any assumption or evaluation that you made other than that Polanco rarely strikes out. If you’ve ever watched Beltre play a whole game at 3B, you’d see that his skills are comparitive to Ibanez in LF. A more reasonable way for you to direct the Phils to move would be to sign Mike Lowell to a 1 year deal at $2-3 mm with a mutual option for 2011, and continue to look at bolstering the bench (as Ruben has said) with Alex Cora-type players who sign with short term contracts with relatively low risk. Signing players through their late 30’s to FA contracts is a sure way to put this team back into the Von Hayes Dark Ages.
George Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 9:13 am
In defense of Ed Wade’s trade of Polanco instead of letting him take over third: no one in his right mind would have wanted David Bell’s contract. He was too expensive and too old. The Phils had a second base surplus and someone had to be moved.

Polanco hasn’t played third for a while. Third involves reflexes and as a player ages, that’s one of the first things to go, unless he’s played a reflex-type position regularly. That could be a concern, although in Polanco’s case, his batting average with two strikes would indicate he can still react, at least to pitched balls. He may or may not be able to adapt to a new position.

Age is definitely a factor. That’s why DeRosa, to me, would be a bad choice as a starter. His play in 2009 was worse than previous years; Polanco’s was not, but could be in a year or two. If he gets a long contract, the Phils may end up with a Geoff Jenkins situation in his final year, paying him not to play.
George Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 9:23 am
Mike Lowell for a year? Surely this is sarcasm. Victorino can walk to his position faster than Lowell can run. Trading for Lowell (he’s still under contract with Boston) would be even worse than the Von Hayes deal.
Georgie Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 10:20 am
Chuck, no need to resort to name-calling, just say you disagree. I absolutely agree with signing PP, said so yesterday, but not as convincingly as Corey.

Mike Lowell? Get a grip, Chuck!
ben Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 10:22 am
The fact that he knows more positions than Peter North is also a plus.

thats the greatest line ever written on this site, my apologies to malcom and gallen.
Geoff Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 10:33 am
Lowell is signed to an expensive contract. THe Red Sox have been unable to shed his BAD contract. No freakin way. Polanco would be good if they want to spend more money elsewhere on the team. Hes old though. I like Beltre because hes younger. That would be my choice if you cant have Figgins and dont want to spend all that money.
Tom Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 10:33 am
You can’t help but think Polanco is on the downside of a very steady career. Since he hit his high water mark in 2007, hitting .341, his average has subsequently tumbled each of the next two years, to .307 and then to this year’s .285. If you can sign him for two years, fine, but I can’t imagine a situation where Polanco is anything more than a $6 million bench player in the third year of that contract.

I don’t want any of these guys for three years though. One option not mentioned, how about Garrett Atkins? Reports are saying he’ll be released if the Rockies can’t find a trade partner, which they won’t. Last year these guy just lost his swing, but prior to that, he was one of the best in the league.

Looking at his BABIP, in his monster 2006 year he recorded nearly a .350 BABIP, but last year was extremely unlucky at .250. In 2007, he’s BABIP fell to a normal .290, but he still hit .301.

He’s by no means a stud in the field, but he was adequate, recroding a UZR of just -0.4. I think he’s worth a shot, as he has the skillset to bounce back, much like Jeff Francoeur seems to have done with the Mets.
Geoff Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 10:37 am
They need someone who will give you three years, maybe with a fourth year club option. THey have NO 3B in the system and if they picked one finally THIS year in the draft – even a college player – thats still 2 years at the earliest before someone is ready.
Geoff Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 10:39 am
Atkins needs to lose weight. (Funny)
psujoe Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 10:49 am
Why not Kouzmenoff for Kendrick and another prospect. The Padres have headley who is a solid 3b. I thought they had 3 young OFs, but just realized they traded Hairston to the A’s. Kouz hits lefties better than Feliz and would hit 25+ in CBP. I think a guy like Kendrick could do well at Petco park.
Geoff Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 10:54 am
Thats a good money saving alternative. Allows money to be spent on pitching.
Jamie Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 11:35 am
I like the idea of bringing Polanco back. DeRosa would be second in my book, with Beltre and Feliz an even third. And I loved the Peter North reference…definitely funny.
George Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 11:40 am
I’d hate to see Kendrick go. With Moyer’s health, Martinez’s free agency, and the fact that Drabek still has hardly any AAA experience, Kendrick might be the only realistic option as a fifth starter. And nothing says the Padres would want him, anyway. That kind of trade saves no money, either, because Kendrick is still under team control and doesn’t cost enough to worry about.
Joey B baby Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 11:40 am
line-up vs leftys
w/ figgins: figgins, vic, utley, werth, howard, jroll, ibanez, ruiz, vs rightys switch werth & howard, jroll & ibanez
w/ beltre: jroll (cuz chollie wont move him w/o the pressure of a true leadoff plus not many other good options with the current lineup), vic, utley, werth, howard, beltre, ibanez, ruiz, vs rightys switch werth & howard, beltre & ibanez
w/ derosa: jroll, vic, utley, werth, howard, ibanez, derosa, ruiz, vs rightys switch werth & howard
w/ polanco (wat i think it should be): vic, polanco, utley, werth, howard, jroll, ibanez, ruiz, but we all know chollie wont move jroll, but again this is wat it should be, vs rightys switch werth & howard, jroll & ibanez
George Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 11:51 am
Another problem with trading for Kouzmanoff is that his offensive stats aren’t really much different than Feliz’s. Low OBP. Struck out 139 times in ‘08. He might get a few more home runs, and he’s younger, but if his defense isn’t up to Feliz’s, I don’t see him as an upgrade.
Al Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 11:53 am
When you have a guy like Mike Schmidt ranting and raving about the defensive skills of Pedro Feliz, he must have some excellent skills. You knew Pedro Feliz was a .250 hit, going to get you 80 RBI and hit 20 bombs. One must remember last year Pedro was playing over half the season with back issues which required off-season back surgery. This year he led the team with runners in scoreing position, sure he offensive stunk in the post season, look so did everyone else. The 10 million dollar man striking out 13 times when it counted the most. Ruben you should pull your head out of your ass, resign Feliz. However, if I was Pedro I would tell you to F off, as you slapped him in the face.
Geoff Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 12:07 pm
It saves money bc you dont have to overpay for a free agent 3B. Kouzmanoff is just entering arbitration.

Kouzmanoffs numbers last season: .255AVG/.302OBP/.722 OPS/18HR/88RBI/27BB/106SO.

Eh, thats an OK cheap option. Just ok. BUT, thats not much different offensively than feliz for much less money.

Thats a good, solid Plan C I think.
BS Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
Polanco’s a type A free agent isn’t he? My only hesitation with him is, I don’t think he’s worth giving up a 1st round pick for.
Dave Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
Al you pointed something out that makes a lot of sense. Feliz actually does hit like he has a back problem (which he does). He is the least flexible hitter I’ve ever seen and just can’t hit the ball where it’s pitched. He has a one-plane swing and hence a lot of weak at-bats and Amaro is looking to improve in a position where a guy is an FA and they have an escape. He’s a decent mistake hitter and I think a fantastic defensive player. Along with being a good guy. But there is room for improvement in the area of fundamental baseball (situational hitting) and also bench strength. Signing a versatile player like Polanco does both. I don’t disagree regarding a 3 year deal being one year longer than preferred. But I wouldn’t sign a younger guy just because he’s younger or a riskier stopgap with our 2 to 3 year window.
Geoff Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 12:38 pm
Yeah he is. NO WAY would I sign him as a type A…..
Bill Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 12:59 pm
I have to disagree with you in regards to Polanco. The Phillies need to get younger and signing a guy just a year younger than Feliz is not a step in that direction.

While I agree that Beltre may look like Feliz’s lost cousin, his upside is much higher and he is 4 years younger. He is also an even better fielder than Pedro. While Beltre may not be completely ideal, I think he is the best option.

http://www.mlbcomplete.com
2010 WF Fightins Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
I like Feliz. But I wouldn’t mind if Ruben secured 3rd base for the future as Feliz will certainly be gone after next season regardless. I’m not sure who fits the bill. Just not Figgins(too costly). Derosa/Beltre sound good to me. Polanco?? Boring, but a maybe a safe alt. I still say resign Feliz for one year, go get Doc and tune up the BP. We have all the O we need.

Charlie has shown in 2007/2009 that he really struggles to manage a pitching staff in October. 2008 was a pretty easy set-up for him. Doc/Lee=insane amount of potential complete games. I wanted him last year after we got Lee. If we had him of course we’d be going for the 3peat in 2010. People can bring up Howard’s 13k’s all they want, but it was Charlie who blindly failed to switch around the lineup to kick start the O and balance it out like he did last year. Especially Game 6.
Dave Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 1:21 pm
Good point regarding type A FA and Polanco. I’m mindful of that and getting younger, especially given that we could see some guys leave in free agency after the next two years. But I’m more than a little concerned about the fact that Beltre has played 12 seasons in the bigs and we’re still talking about his upside. He broke in at 19. He’s played a lot of baseball and could already be on the downside. Some other guys who broke in at 19 and all saw significant decline after 30: Ken Griffey Jr and Andruw Jones.
Keystone Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
Does anyone know how Neil Sellers is defensively?
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=456511
NateB Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 2:07 pm
although it’s fun to speculate, i think any of the options (Feliz, DeRosa, Polanco, Figgins, or Beltre) will work fine for our lineup. all we need is a number 7 hitter in the lineup. BUT on the other hand, we NEED some middle relievers, a backup closer, and even another top of rotation starter (what if Happ has his sophmore slump? and Moyer is 47 and injured). PITCHERS!!!!
Corey Seidman Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
I guess I’m in the minority here, but with the Phillies window being NOW, I don’t really see losing a #1 draft pick as that big of a deal.

Worst case scenario, that #1 never even makes it to the big leagues. Best case, he does in five or six years. And that #1 pick could just as easily be Matt Belisle or Taylor Tankersley as it could be Cole Hamels or Chase Utley.
George Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 2:21 pm
If the Phils are going to trade for a third baseman, they’ve got to go for someone better than Kouzmanoff. He’s just not an upgrade except maybe for age.

Trading for someone really good is not a cheaper option, because it would cost someone good, and someone good would cost just as much in pay as a free agent.

Note that the Phils are after a player who’s a definite upgrade. They’ll be picky about it, too, or they wouldn’t still be considering Feliz as a backup plan.

It’s obvious they have no intentions right now of going for starting pitching. They’re relying on Hamels to rebound. A cheap alternative isn’t what the front office has in mind, whether we like it or not, and trading Kendrick when the fifth starter slot is up in the air would only be considered if they really did intend to sign a better pitcher.
Corey Seidman Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
Kevin Kouzmanoff is an awful, awful answer. It’s hard to believe anybody would consider a guy who walks less and strikes out more than Feliz, plays worse defense, and has had more seasons with a below average OPS than an above average OPS, an upgrade.

Yes, he’s 28. But so are Matt Murton, Jeremy Reed, and Jeff Baker. Age doesn’t matter unless a player is, you know, good.
2010 WF Fightins Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
The ‘93 Phillies were a starting pitcher short of baseball immortality. So too was this 2009 squad. When will these old farts ever learn?? We don’t know how Figgins/Derosa/Beltre would fit in. We also don’t know what Hamels will give us next year. Will he ever develop another pitch?? But we all sure know what Doc has to offer. And our bench situation won’t be all that bad in 2010. Dobbs will be healthy. Cairo at min could replace the Beard. We’ll have Ben Fran for the whole season and let’s not forget about Mayberry Jr. and some other Triple A farm dudes that may come up next season. And of course we expect Ruben to make a couple of moves as well. We need the Doctor.
2010 WF Fightins Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
By old farts I’m reff to the Phils front office(well a few of them at least). 2008 was a bit of a surprise. Some would say more than a little. We ain’t surprising nobody anymore. We need two work horses on our staff.
joedad Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
Polanco’s bat would be a plus but what do you do with him if he is a subpar 3rd baseman? He hasn’t played 3rd base in 5 years. His arm may have weakened or his reaction time may have slowed. I would have a difficult time signing him to a 3 year deal without a backup plan
2010 WF Fightins Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
joedad….. I didn’t know that about Polanco. I thought he played 3rd for sometime in Detroit. Guess not. If only Mr. Middleton would just buy the team for all his own…… Then this discussion would be moot. He did chip in to help the Phils sign Jim Thome. Why not jump in and help us get the Doc good sir…………..
The Dipsy Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
Who’s Peter North?

The Dipsy
Amanda Orr Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
I’d be happy with Figgins, but I’d look for somebody else because of 1) cost, and 2) struggles against lefties.

Figgins hit .246 against lefties this year, and .323 against right. The Phillies have enough lefties in the lineup, so they really need somebody to hit lefties. And even if Figgins becomes a Phillie, I don’t think Manuel would move JRoll out of the lead-off spot, despite Figgins’ better OBP.

Beltre, DeRosa, Polanco, Figgins, I’d be happy with either one.
ther Man the Legend Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
Rumor has it Garrett atkins will be cut at any time because of lack of interest at the gm meetings last week the rockies want the inevitable done….With his realationship with chase what is thought of him in philly?!!!!!!
Corey Seidman Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
I don’t think Atkins’ days as Chase Utley’s college teammate have anything to do with him playing third base for the Phillies.

Atkins’ numbers have gotten worse every year. He’s not the answer at third base for the Phils, and it wouldn’t even make baseball sense for the Rockies to release him.
psujoe Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
Corey, First of all I never said Kouz was an upgrade. He is however a cheap alternative. Let’s look at the stats though. He has a better OPS and OBP than Feliz so he’s an offensive upgrade. He’s not a bad fielder at all. He is no Feliz, but Pedro is on his way down. Feliz’ power production has dropped 4 straight years despite playing in CBP. 12 HRs at CBP as a 3B is putride. Kouz is a clear 25-30 HR, 90+ RBI guy in CBP. At a cost of less than $1 mil he’s a valid alternative. If the Phils spend 5+ on 3rd base forget adding starting pitching or adding top shelf relief. Something has to give and IMO it’s 3b. I should add that Kouz is a major upgrade over Feliz against Lefties which is what the Phils really need. Sprinkle in Dobbs 15-20 games against righties and I think it works.
Corey Seidman Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
I understand. Keep in mind, though, that 2010 is Kouzmanoff’s first arbitration year. That $432,000 salary will turn into $1.5-2.5M. It’s not as if you’d be getting him super cheap.

Polanco, Beltre, and DeRosa are all massive upgrades over Kouzmanoff, and well worth the extra few million bucks a year.
Brooks Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
The Rox have 2 players they are not going to pursuit. Looks like Atkins will be one of them and Betancourt the other.
2 positions from one team, that would be prime. Atkins still has a lot of upside as he will be 30 next year. Other than last year his average hovered around .300 and he seems to be a genuine rbi guy with 20 (+) hr potential.
Betancourt seems to be plus on the Eyre situation. A certified setup pitcher with a proven record, good k/bb ratio.
Atkins made 7 mil last year, Betancourt was not resigned for just over 5 mil.
Sounds worth a look.
The Dipsy Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 4:44 pm
I’ll take Polanco. Can sign him to a relatively short contract which is consistent with the time horizon of the team as presently constituted. Would be fine in the field. You won’t find many teams that do not require power from its 3B but we would be one. .290, walk, bunt, hit and run, with a decent glove and I’m happy. And at the right price.

The Dipsy
Geoff Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 5:08 pm
We shouldnt see Kouzmanoff as a primary or secondary, or even tertiary plan.

Also, we dont know whether Detriot will offer arbitration to Polanco. If they DO NOT, then you move in on him as an option because his Type A status would be voided.

If you cant get Figgins, if you cant get DERosa, if you cant get Beltre, if you cant get Polanco, THEN Kouzmanoff is an option as a fallback. BUT it wont come to that because of Corey’s analysis. The 4 teams that can really spend on a free agent 3B will most likely get the 4 best player.

Whats intriguing me is where do we all think Feliz will end up?

If I were the Pirates or someone like that Id move in for the capture to buy time for their top prospect Alvarez to come up. The Orioles have Bell waiting in the wings as well (they got him from the Dodgers in the Sherrill trade).
psujoe Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 5:11 pm
Fair enough if his cost rises to 15. mil. No way on Atkins. Figgins is too expensive and too many years. Derosa seems iffy as an everday guy(would love his bat against lefties). What would Beltre cost for 3 years?
phillip phan Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
Signing Polanco is the worst possible move. A third baseman needs to hit for power or in the case of Figgins make up for the lack of power with blazing speed. They tried Polanco. Either sign Beltre or Figgins or bring back Pedro. Signing Polanco is like signing Dave Magaden to replace Howard. Please!!!! We need to maintain champioship calibre personnel.
George Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 5:58 pm
Again, I say if you’re going to trade, you trade for someone better than Kouzmanoff. He may hit marginally better than Feliz, but that’s not really what the front office seems to be looking for, or they’d just resign Feliz.

Signing Beltre, Figgins, DeRosa, Polanco, or anyone else depends on dollars, contract length, and interest from other teams, and it will vary amongst them. None of them may be the candidate the Phils will sign because of those factors.

I agree that more pitching would be nice, due to a possible sophomore jinx with Happ, or Hamels not rebounding. There’s a question mark on the 5th starter, too. If Halladay could be had for a few questionable prospects I’d say go for it. But he’ll still be incredibly expensive, even for one year, and I think the team will pass. Right now the biggest question mark is the bullpen, what with Lidge’s surgery, Romero’s surgery, the possible retirement of Eyre, and the inconsistency of Durbin.

That’s probably where the money will go, and third may still end up being manned by Feliz. I don’t think that would be the end of the world.
Greg Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 7:03 pm
Ruben needs to make a deal to get Roy Holliday.Pitching wins
championships.They need to win now,suck up the 15 million and
make the move.Hamels is over rated,so you need the double Aces
with Lee and Holliday.
He then needs to sign Mike Gonzales because he
fits what the phils need, a lefty reliever who could be the closer if
Lidge fails again.
At thirdbase,Feliz or Derosa.
Paujoe Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 7:35 pm
I’m ok with Felix if he’d come back.
Dave Says:
November 14th, 2009 at 11:12 pm
Halladay, Lee and a healthy Cole would have a huge positive impact on the BP eliminating much of the pressure and reducing the risk greatly. All three of these guys can go 7-9 innings. A healthy Cole in that rotation would make the Phillies effectively unbeatable – barring injuries. Its that simple. Keep Feliz and spend the money on Halladay and a closer. Make some moves on the bench – dump all of ‘em and get a real DH, a good glove, multi-position guy and bring up a kid or three. Get a backup closer to Lidge and a couple of solid middle innings guys (maybe Ayre comes back?). Basically, keep Feliz and get Halladay, upgrade the bench and fix the BP. Reuben indicated they have a 140mil to field next years team.
2010 WF Champs Says:
November 15th, 2009 at 12:03 am
I like your spirit Dave, but we all know the Phils ain’t spending $$$ like the Yanks. At least not yet. As a kid growing up watching the Phils I remember the endless tales that were told about those great 100+ win teams that won the div 3 years in row in the ’70’s. Of course they drilled the 1980 WS team deep into our souls. But they hardly ever brought up the ‘83 team. Maybe once or twice tops. Only 1 title from those glory yrs?? Sad….

The Phils better act now if they don’t want history to repeat itself….
Ryk Says:
November 15th, 2009 at 12:57 am
@ Dave……also, let’s not forget Halladay is NOT a free agent. Spending money is one thing. But if the Phils make a trade for Halladay, their farm is going to be toast. Although I gotta tell ya, Doc would look great in red.
shag beta sigma delta Says:
November 15th, 2009 at 8:22 am
I am not sure PP can play 3rd everyday, and I don’t trade defense for offense on this team. Beltre looks good to me, younger exceptional fielder and decent hitter, especially moving from seatle to Philly. The one thing with both Betlre and DeRosa is injuries, I do not see DeRosa as everyday 3rd basemen, but would love him on the bench
Phils4life Says:
November 15th, 2009 at 8:48 am
Trade the farm for Ryan Zimmerman!
Greg V. Says:
November 15th, 2009 at 10:09 am
I have to be honest, I don’t get why they declined Feliz’s option to begin with! He was solid at third and while his offense was streaky, he often came through in the clutch. For $5 million, was it really a bad move to pick up that option, despite that his numbers were declining? Who is to say the same thing won’t happen to Figgins, Beltre, Polanco, or DeRosa who are all close in age? Yeah, Feliz looked bad at the end of the season and the post season. Figgins was just as much of an automatic out in the playoffs too. Beltre is injury prone. Out of the two left, DeRosa and Polanco I’d say it’s a toss up with me leaning towards Polanco because I never wanted the Phillies to get rid of him in the first place. I would have stuck with Feliz. Now that they aren’t, I’d go with Polanco.
2010 WF Champs Says:
November 15th, 2009 at 10:19 am
Ham & Cheese!
Matt Kwasiborski Says:
November 15th, 2009 at 10:22 am
Here is what I think should happen but it is a longshot. First, they sign Figgins or Polanco to play 3B. Then they trade Victorino and Happ to Toronto for Halladay and Vernon Wells. Wells becomes our Yankee Bobby Abreu. We don’t have to sacrifice many prospects in order to get Halladay. Both players have contracts the Jays would absoultely love to move.

Wells has a ridiculous contract for the next 4 years but if the Phils were willing to take it on PLUS get Halladay, it would be well worth it. Then you have a rotation featuring Halladay, Lee and Hamels; Lee and Halladay will pitch it out to see who we sign post 2010. Wells replaces Vic and we can let Taylor/Brown develop for another two years if necessary. This is the deal that needs to happen.
JD Says:
November 15th, 2009 at 10:30 am
I say make a push for Lackey who us a free agent. Halladay would be great but what do we do when there contracts are both up next year(Halladay and Lee)?? Get Lackey we sign him for a few years don’t give up anyone in the farm and I will take Hamels three. Don’t have to rush getting anyone up from the minors either. Beltre would be fine with this offense he doesn’t have to be the man here. I agree with getting Gonzales for another strong lefty in the pen so Happ can actually pitch his game.
2010 WF Champs Says:
November 15th, 2009 at 11:13 am
Veron Wells???? Wow dude!
2010 WF Champs Says:
November 15th, 2009 at 11:16 am
Lackey??? Hmmmm…. Not a bad idea….
ben Says:
November 15th, 2009 at 11:34 am
what about signing omar vizquel as our utility infielder? word is he’s looking for work, his range was pretty good last year and he can play 2nd, SS, or 3rd. his bat wasn’t terrible last year either and he’s a gamer.
2010 WF Champs Says:
November 15th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
It’s hard to believe that this guy is 42 years old. I’ll never knock this guy, but his bat is all but gone. After 2007 maybe even 2006 he stopped hitting. Of course his glove work is amazing! Maybe he gets a bit of a rebirth if goes back to another contender.
shag beta sigma delta Says:
November 15th, 2009 at 5:05 pm
Lacky is a head case, do not think he would fit in here. I would love to get Pete Happy back if they can for less money. Then get a real bench guy who can play third second or SS, DeRosa? And give Pete happy some more time off during the year, as well as Utley and JRoll. I do think you need a big bat at 7th, defense is more importent on this team at 3rd. I do not think Figgins is a good fit either(I have been wrong in the past, but something about him I do not like) I do not think PP can be an everday player at 3rd, but again you get him and re sign Peter Happy, then you are in good shape.
I think Doc is a dream, but I do not see having your two aces leave after a year, you have to re sign Lee to 3 years this year. I do not believe in giving up the farm right now for anybody.
Hamels is no way over rated, he had a bad year after coming off the WS MVP, it went to his head and he was never really ready for the season. But this team will bring him back to earth and he will be more 08 Cole then 09 Cole next year.
Lee, Hamels, Blanton, Happ, Drebek or Kendrick, Moyer, Carpenter, or some other farm hand can fight out for #5 in the rotation. That will be a formidable rotation all next year.
I also think you might find bull pen help from the minors this year.
Biggest thing is a bench guy who can play 2x a week at different positions. Rest guys during the year, and I think the offense will become more consistant
2010 WF Champs Says:
November 15th, 2009 at 6:14 pm
Birds are losing again….. Reid+McNugget= HAPPY MEAL!

Just taking a guess here, but it’s probably Figgs’ post season stats. Or maybe it’s his declining slug% Which barely existed in the 1st place. Lackey a head case? So is Josh Beckett…So was Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling. I want the Doc, but Lackey would be a nice alt.
Lucky Says:
November 15th, 2009 at 6:22 pm
It would be awesome to sign Derosa as a super utilty player, but lets keep it real…It will never happen. He will sign elsewhere and be an everyday player. On the otherhand I wouldn’t be too impressed if the Phillies signed him as our everyday 3rd basemen. I’d be much happier if we signed Polanco. Figgins is a little too pricey, and Beltre seems to have caught the Andrew Jones flu.

About Halladay…It wont ever happen. Matt Kwasiborski should be benched for saying ”trade Vic and Happ” for Halladay and Wells. Trust me! It would take a whole lot more than that to land Halladay, and including Vic in the deal for a one year service of Halladay AND taking on Wells bogus contract? We don’t need Halladay…Let some other dumb GM give up his right leg, and their teams farm system.
Dave Says:
November 16th, 2009 at 12:48 pm
Beltre is the guy you want. I’ve watched him play hundreds of games. First, his defense is better than Feliz. Second, he has every bit as much power as Ibanez.

Safeco Field is a monster park compared to CBP. Philly might have been surprised at what Ibanez did, but it wasn’t surprising to some of the Seattle fans: hitters park, better lineup, NL pitching (many believe), and Ibanez unloads.

I expect exactly the same out of Beltre in the 7th slot. He may even give Werth a run for the 5th slot. You’re analysis is generally right on, except that it sells Beltre short.
The Original Chuck P Says:
November 16th, 2009 at 12:55 pm
Respectfully disagree…

Here’s how I look at this… regardless of which guy you think is better, Polanco for Feliz doesn’t get us over the hump of beating the Yankees and it’s going to cost us more money which will hinder our ability to go out and get better at other key positions (SP, RP, UTIL).

Look at this thing for what it’s worth:

Both hitters would be slotted into 7 hole… unless I’m missing something… Polanco is a top of the order guy. He is a run scorer not necessarily a run producer. He gets on base but he doesn’t necessarily knock guys in. The most RBI’s that he has ever had in a season is 72 (last year). On the other hand, he averages 91 runs per season… you’re taking a run scoring second baseman and asking him to be a run producing third baseman.

Feliz is 34 years old… Polanco is 34 years old. Feliz had a bad second half and there are concerns that he’s declining but let’s not kid ourselves, Polanco’s not exactly heading into the prime of his career, either.

Signing Polanco would cost us two draft picks and more money and possibly more years.

Defensively, Feliz, playing his natural position, saves more runs than Polanco attempting to play third (something he hasn’t done on a consistent basis since 2002).

Feliz was .336 with RISP… great production in that 7 hole. I know that he declined we’re talking about the 7 hole. If we want to upgrade our lineup, that’s all well and good but go out and get the right guy. IMO, that’s Beltre. If not Beltre, bring Feliz back and go out and get a starter that can compete with Burnett and go out and get a legitimate bench bat and/or utility guy.

My $0.02.
Don M Says:
November 16th, 2009 at 1:39 pm
Polanco is really a Type-A Free Agent??

…
He is almost as pure a #2 hitter as there is in baseball ..

signing him would mean some kind of shift, probably Victorino instead of Rollins

and he would either hit 6th, with Ibanez 7th… or 7th, after Raul
Don M Says:
November 16th, 2009 at 1:42 pm
perhaps the best thing about Polanco is the fact that he would be willing to sign a contract that is Phillies-friendly , both in terms of YEARS and DOLLARS

you could probably land him for 2 years, $10 Million

…and I dont think he strikes out a lot

..
I really dont see how he makes the team that much better..

I wonder if Kevin Kouzmanoff is really available from the Padres? and what would be their asking price.. perhaps a Michael Taylor trade?
psujoe Says:
November 16th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
Brandon Phillips can play third. At the plate he’s ideal. hits lefties for a .300 average with excellent Power. He’d hit 25+ at CBP in this line-up. He’s expensive at $6.75 mil 2010 and $11 mil 2011 with an option in 2012.
Manny Says:
November 16th, 2009 at 2:20 pm
I completely agree with Original. Well said.
The Original Chuck P Says:
November 16th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
I think that Kouzmanoff for Michael Taylor would be a bad idea. Taylor has star potential… Kooz is a solid fielder and a guy that has 25 HR potential but his .260 average is not enamoring, to me. If a trade can be had, the Phillies should pursue this option but I would think that would only happen if they can cut a deal that doesn’t include Taylor/Brown/Drabek/May.
psujoe Says:
November 16th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
I would think the Padres would be interested in Kendrick and another prospect. Kendrick could be effective in that park.
The Original Chuck P Says:
November 16th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
I love Brandon Phillips…

Chris Coghlan wins ROY.
psujoe Says:
November 16th, 2009 at 2:36 pm
Phillips is a nice trade option because you’r not locked into that salary for 5 years like you would be for Figgins. What would it take to get thim though is the question?
The Original Chuck P Says:
November 16th, 2009 at 2:39 pm
I think that Brandon Phillips is nothing more than a pipe dream… I’m not even going to try to wrap my arms around that one.

Not sure if this is news but Bruntlett (Punt), Tyler Walker, Paul Hoover and Andy Tracy were removed from the 40 man roster today, making them free agents. We’re officially done with the Beard.
Geoff Says:
November 16th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
Kouzmanoff is nothing but a leave average or maybe a shade above type of player. Not a first, second, or even third option really. Id rather bring Feliz back than to get that guy. Amaro should be fired if they traded Brown or Taylor for him. Id offer like, Kendrick and like, Clay Condrey. Not anymore than that.

Its gotta be one of the Free Agents. They wouldnt have blown Feliz outta here if they werent planning on legitimately and undoubtedly upgrading the position.
Geoff Says:
November 16th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
league average
Don M Says:
November 16th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
Brandon Phillips is probably the best player on that team… why would they trade him?

And young guys that play middle-infield aren’t thrilled about going to thirdbase

I think Phillips is unrealisitc..

…
Kouzmanoff is young, with pretty decent power numbers for a guy that plays 81 games in one of the biggest ballparks in the majors.

He plays solid defense at a position that ask for just that.. and he would slot into the #7 spot perfectly

How much can Michael Taylor-alone get you in a trade??

He’s not our top prospect.. and you can maybe package him with other guys to make a nice trade package.. but what would you guys expect for Michael Taylor in a trade?

I would think that a Major League Thirdbaseman.. for our #2 OF prospect is a nice trade for both teams
Don M Says:
November 16th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
Kouzmanoff is a career .287 hitter vs. Left-hand Pitching too

…
I would rather make that deal than sign Polanco, DeRosa, etc..

I don’t think we can afford Figgins.. I think Beltre is a Boras client? Which would mean that he will try to seek crazy years & dollars for him. .

I think Miguel Tejada would be a really nice fit in our lineup, but what will his defense be like at 3rd base?
Geoff Says:
November 16th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
Thats my issue with it though, hes A major league 3b. But just that…Maybe hed be better at this ballpark, but he strikes out more than Feliz. I want a clear cut offensive upgrade over Feliz who can hold his own defensively.
Don M Says:
November 16th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
Who is a clear cut offensive upgrade over Feliz? that won’t cost us $10+ Million per year

Beltre hasn’t hit over .275 since 2004.. he’s an injury risk.. and will command big dollars

I would love him on my team, because batting 6th-7th, you wouldn’t need him to carry your team offensively .. but I think he’ll be asking way more than what the Phillies can afford to pay

Beltre or Tejada would be nice fits … I think Figgins is definitely OUT.. and I don’t think DeRosa or Polanco can play the type of defense we need at 3b
Geoff Says:
November 16th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
Id liek to see them make offers to Figgins, Beltre and DeRosa first. Im not jazzed about an aging Polanco. De Rosa is old too…But if those guys dont pan out, then ABSOLUTELY they should go after Kouzmanoff. He would not cost Taylor either. You go like, Savery or Kendrick, Gose, and some other mid-level guys. Kouzmanoff isnt good enouigh to land a top 25 Prospect.
Geoff Says:
November 16th, 2009 at 3:21 pm
Now Figgins will cost too much most likely. So its really between Beltre and DeRosa. But I think DeRosa is too old to play everyday like that.

Id send Taylor to SD for Koumanoff AND someone else.
Manny Says:
November 16th, 2009 at 3:30 pm
Let’s just teach Domonic to play 3rd…
Don M Says:
November 16th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
Why would the Padres trade Kouzmanoff …for Savery or Kendrick? Do either of them project anywhere close to helping a major league team?

I’ve heard that Gose was on the Blue Jays list more than Taylor .. so I wonder if other teams are higher on Gose too?

I’m just thinking outside the box a little… we have a top prospect, Taylor, who doesn’t have anywhere to go right now in our organization (and a better prospect right behind him in our organization)

we have a team-need for a 3b.. sometimes you give up a lot, to fill a need
psujoe Says:
November 16th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
If the Phils were to trade Taylor for Kouzmanoff the Pads would have to throw in someone like Adams.
Don M Says:
November 16th, 2009 at 4:57 pm
I don’t see how Taylor, alone, can bring back any kind of insane return

Domonic Brown is ranked higher.. and again, I heard that the Blue Jays were more interested in Anthony Gose than Michael Taylor

I don’t think Taylor is actually in high demand around the league
JJFritz Says:
November 16th, 2009 at 5:35 pm
Feliz struggled offensively, agreed — most likely from his back problems. Defensively, we couldn’t ask for more. It’s a shame to see him go when we don’t really know what he could offensively if he was healthy. Just a thought. DeRosa is a little old, and may not be able to handle every day, as most of us agreed. Beltre — out of the price range. Figgins — perfect if we were looking for a leadoff, but with Vic and JRoll, that’s unrealistic. Polanco would be a good fit if we can expect a 34-year old to play 162 games a year… Most of you said that bringing in Polanco would give Utley much needed rest when needed. Moving Polanco back and forth between 2nd and 3rd while giving Utley rest and Dobbs time would not offer a very good transition for Polanco. Not a good idea. If DeRosa and/or Polanco are willing to play off the bench, why not sign both to 1-year deals with incentives and options. DeRosa can play outfield which would be great. And, whichever wins out at third, the other could be used for trade bait this summer. Just another thought.
GWFightinsFan Says:
November 16th, 2009 at 9:50 pm
I think everyone is losing sight of the fact that its quite possible that Feliz will return. They declined the option because they probably think that he can be signed for less that the 5 mil or 5.5 mil than they would have had to pay him had they picked up his option. Maybe they can use some of the saved money to improve their pitching…
shag beta sigma delta Says:
November 16th, 2009 at 9:58 pm
GW I fully agree, I feel Peter Happy will be back for between 3-4.5 million for one year and team option for 2011. That said if they could add a guy, DeRosa or PP as a bench guy to rest Feliz and Utley that would be Ideal. I think Pedro’s age and back issues needs more rest thoughout the year. He started out great at the plate and tailed off after the All-Star break. So if you can pick up a guy who can play third and second, and even SS once in a while that would be perfect. I think if Feliz can have a day off a week and say play 120-130 games a year he would become more consistent all year.
That would be my one and only issue with Charlie, he needs to rest these guys more than he has in the past.
I do not follow the minors a lot except what I here in here, and from that I think our pitching help can come from within, especially in the pen.
Don M Says:
November 17th, 2009 at 9:44 am
According to Jayson Stark… Pedro Feliz was “hurt” that the Phillies did not pickup his option..

Baltimore is said to be very interested in Feliz

I think there fall-back plan is Pedro Feliz.. maybe for $3, or even $4 M, which would save them $1 or $2 Million, perfect for Relief Pitching

but lets see if Feliz (multiple World Series’ appearances, and a World Series Champion) cares to play for less money in Philadelphia (a place where he now wouldn’t feel wanted) .. or if he takes a slightly more money to play for a non-contending team
psujoe Says:
November 17th, 2009 at 11:23 am
I’d love Pedro back at 3.5-4 mil. Sign Jammie Carroll as the new Bruntlett. Load up the pen and find a left handed bat in the OF.
psujoe Says:
November 17th, 2009 at 11:30 am
Here’s a nice look at the possible bull pen arms out there for those interested.

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies/Phillies_Free_Agent_Preview_The_Pen.html
jrollpatrol08 Says:
November 24th, 2009 at 9:26 am
i too say beltre. he can be comfortably signed multiyear, which is more than you can say for polanco, derosa types. you need a multiyear guy now. the only heir to 3rd base for the phillies was sent to cleveland for cliff lee. there is no position depth in the minors at 3rd so sign beltre and his numbers/production will be great in the phils lineup.

u cant give up the farm for one year of halladay. you just cant. what if the phils do that and do not win the ws in 2010. then you have no trophy, no farm system, and no halladay. the only way the deal makes sense is if ruben can sign halladay multiyear and justify spending min 40mil per year on lee/halladay. you will see werth and ryan howard leave because there isnt enough money. you have no prospects to fill in the OF so youhave to spend more money on FA to fill in. you have an overpowering pitching with no offense, and become the sanfrancisco giants. no thanks. good luck sellin tickets with no homeruns
Corey Seidman Says:
December 3rd, 2009 at 12:32 pm
Woo!!!
The State of the Phillies | Phillies Nation Says:
December 13th, 2009 at 4:35 am
[...] on MLBTradeRumors.com, (a site that I wish I came up with when I was nine years old.) As I stated here, Polanco represents the best upgrade at the hot corner because he adds a new dimension to an [...]

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