Phillies Nation

95 Responses to “Victorino, Three Others File for Arb”

1. The Dipsy Says:
   January 16th, 2010 at 1:26 pm

   Hmmmmmmm. Very interesting. I disagree that Shane will make 6m this year. He is eligible for arb next year also so I don’t think that a panel would jack him up to 6m knowing that they might see him again next year. I see Blanton signing a one year for 6.75m. Does anyone think that Ryan Howard would sign an extension to stay with the Phils for 5y/100m? I would like to see the Phils try that. I think Howard might do it for a few reasons: 1) He’s got this year and next year before his contract runs out and extending him another 5 would give security for life; 2) He can stay in Philly (if he wants to); 3) he could remain part of a championship caliber team. From the Phils end, if they can sign him to that, it would be team friendly. It would give the team a degree of cost certainty for a long time. AND, it would leave a little more money to sign Werth to a deal to keep him here for another three years. Anyone think that if the Phillies offered to rip Jason’s contract up and sign him to 4y/45m, he would take it?

   The Dipsy

2. Nick Says:
   January 16th, 2010 at 2:09 pm

   Here a link to a good story:
   http://thephrontiersman.wordpress.com/2010/01/07/rolen-back-history/

3. Nick Says:
   January 16th, 2010 at 2:18 pm

   Brandon Duckworth!!!!!!!!!!!

4. Nick Says:
   January 16th, 2010 at 2:20 pm

   @ The Dipsy. I think signing Howard for 5 years would be a huge mistake. The guy is 30 years old and has old player skills.

   I wouldn’t give the guy more than 3 years with a club option on a 4th if I were a GM.

5. George Says:
   January 16th, 2010 at 2:26 pm

   If any of these arbitration eligible players is signed to a multiyear contract, it would most likely be Ruiz. He’s still cheap, but more arbitration years could push his pay up significantly. Decent catchers don’t grow on trees, and the Phils have traded away all options that were close to major league ready.

   Blanton is already creeping up into the unaffordable range and could be replaced in 2011. Victorino will probably go year to year because of other prospects in the system coupled with the uncertainty of re-signing Werth. Durbin is middle relief, so anything might happen there.

6. Pat Gallen Says:
   January 16th, 2010 at 2:31 pm

   George, I thought that about Ruiz too, but consider this. With defensive metrics the way they are these days, Ruiz may not get a huge jump in salary from year to year. Look at some other catchers and what they make that have better offensive numbers than Ruiz. What’s the most he would command during his final year of arb? Let’s say his number doubles this year, and then again next year. He would still be making only $2 million in 2011.

   So 2012 is his final year of arb. Unless he magically hits 20 HR’s and knocks in 75 runs, it’s doubtful his number goes higher than $4-5 million, which is still fairly cheap for a catcher. Better to go year to year with Ruiz, in my opinion.

7. George Says:
   January 16th, 2010 at 2:56 pm

   Nick:
   I think you are undervaluing Howard. While I wouldn’t sign him for five years after his current contract runs out, I’d consider extending him at least until he’s 35. That would mean tearing up the current contract and giving him 5 years.

   You say he has “old player skills,” yet in 2009 he improved his defense dramatically, stole bases, and generally seemed to be improving; not something that people with “old skills” usually manage. He’s also had very few injuries.

   If when he’s 35 he is only three-quarters as productive a hitter, he’ll still be getting about 100 RBIs.

8. Amanda Orr Says:
   January 16th, 2010 at 3:00 pm

   What they do with Victorino will be interesting, especially with Werth being a FA next season. Victorino will come cheaper, but I’d rather have Werth over Shane.

   Duckworth! Yes!!!!!!!! Even though he did not pitch well/live up to expectations, I was always a fan of his.

9. shag beta sigma delta Says:
   January 16th, 2010 at 3:05 pm

   I have been saying that for weeks I think Ryan would sign a 5 yr 100 million contract, if he wants to stay in Philly. Also I like signing Ruiz to a 3 or four year deal for 7-9 million just to show some respect, he will be worth it, and it has good faith written all over it. It is what good franchises do to players they like. And agreeing with George, Howard worked hard AFTER winning a ring to improve his defense and he lost some weight, I think Howard will be able to very productive through his 30’s. Remember the guy came up late, so he doesn’t have the games wear and tear other 30 year old guys have. If you could lock up Shane for 3 years at 4-7 million would be a good deal also, and I think would still leave room for Wreth if he will give the Phillies a discount to about 13-14 million a year

10. Paul Boye Says:
    January 16th, 2010 at 3:06 pm

    George:

    Howard is an interesting case. Before the ‘09 season, a lot of his numbers were trending in the wrong direction, and it looked like he was heading toward a regression that would continue until the end of his career. Now, after 2009 buoyed him a bit, he’s more valuable to us in the short-term, but far more costly in the long-term.

    Assuming he’s put off his decline for another year, we can use him at his peak for the last two seasons of his deal, in 2010 and ‘11, but by then his value will so incredibly bloated in the eyes of teams hunting in free agency that there is almost no chance he stays. More than that, I think Howard’s fate was sealed when Halladay inked his extension. I really don’t expect him to be here after this current deal expires.

11. George Says:
    January 16th, 2010 at 3:06 pm

    Good points concerning Ruiz, although I still think it would be a good move to sign him long to avoid arbitration. It would prove the team’s faith in him. It would assure the pitching staff that they weren’t throwing to a catcher distracted by future contract considerations. Sometimes it’s not money, but perceptions.

12. shag beta sigma delta Says:
    January 16th, 2010 at 3:11 pm

    You throw JRoll, and Doc in there and that is 90 million, a year for you middle defense and middle of you line up. Is that too much?

13. shag beta sigma delta Says:
    January 16th, 2010 at 3:15 pm

    Paul Boye, are you saying he would not take 20 million or the Phillies would not have two players making 20 million on this team?

14. hotstove.com / archive » Saturday Afternoon Hot Stove Notes: Phillies, Giants, Mariners, Dodgers, Reds, more Says:
    January 16th, 2010 at 3:15 pm

    [...] Pat Gallen of PhilliesNation.com looks at the 4 arbitration cases for the Phillies coming [...]

15. The Dipsy Says:
    January 16th, 2010 at 3:16 pm

    If Ryan Howard was a free agent today, I think he could get a 6y/160m-ish contract. “Old guy skills”? I don’t know what that means. Shag – I don’t think the Phils will be interested in signing Victorino long term beacuse I think they would rather keep Werth. Amanda – Whats up with this whole “Duckworth” obsession? I think Shane would get about 11 or 12 a year on the open market. 3y/27m for the Phils.

    The Dipsy

16. shag beta sigma delta Says:
    January 16th, 2010 at 3:21 pm

    Really 11 or 12 million for Vic, I am not to sure about that, but what do I know.

17. Paul Boye Says:
    January 16th, 2010 at 3:21 pm

    Shag:

    More than that, I think other teams would be willing to pay more average annual value than $20M, and I think the Phils know that that’s money better spent elsewhere.

    He’ll be 32 in the winter of his free agency, and even despite RAJ’s penchant for giving multi-year, back-loaded deals to older players, I think we’d be outbid to the tune of 4/100-110, assuming his current production keeps up and his health holds the next two years. It’s a really early guess, but that’s how I’d project it today.

18. George Says:
    January 16th, 2010 at 3:24 pm

    Paul Boye:
    Howard’s numbers may have been trending in the wrong direction, but at least for one year that was a function of pitchers catching up to him. Even in his bad years he was a terror, and 2009 showed that he takes his game seriously and can improve. I really don’t think it’s a matter of having “put off his decline for another year.” And if his value will be “bloated” in two years, that’s why you extend him to five at what would likely be a smaller amount of money.

    This was all just a thought, anyway, and not even my own idea. I was merely responding to the “old player skills” comment. No matter says whether anyone thinks he should be extended or not, Howard’s skills are anything but old.

19. shag beta sigma delta Says:
    January 16th, 2010 at 3:25 pm

    I get it, but was going with the assumption that he would give the Phillies a discount for 20 a year for the next 5 years, Then he could walk over to the AL and get 10-15 to DH until he is 40

20. Paul Boye Says:
    January 16th, 2010 at 3:26 pm

    Dipsy:

    11-12/year for Victorino is a gross overpayment. Vic was actually third-worst in terms of +/- last year for centerfielders, at -24 plays. Only Dexter Fowler and Vernon Wells were worse.

    His defense isn’t all that great anymore, but he is an above-average hitter with good speed. He’d get $6M a year, but not double figures.

21. George Says:
    January 16th, 2010 at 3:37 pm

    If $20 million is “money spent better elsewhere,” why is the front office already paying Howard $19 million? Maybe that’s not the same, but it’s so darned close it’s the difference between the thickness of a board and the thickness of a board with pee on it.

22. George Says:
    January 16th, 2010 at 3:50 pm

    I would agree that $11-12 million for Victorino is WAY too much. Maybe Ed Wade would sign him for that much, seeing as how he has such a thing for ex-Phils, but any other GM would laugh in his agent’s face. I doubt even that Amaro would pay him more than $7 million, especially with all the outfielders in the system. Victorino has speed, but isn’t a great base stealer. He swings a decent, though not great bat, and he’s a “gamer,” but misses time every year because of leg strains.

23. Paul Boye Says:
    January 16th, 2010 at 4:07 pm

    George:

    $20M per year will be too much by the time Howard is entering his mid-30s, but comparing that to the current deal assumes Howard’s current deal is fair value.

    To be honest, it’s close. Howard is probably worth less than he’s getting paid even now, though, so $20M per year two years from now when he’s older makes less sense.

24. Brooks Says:
    January 16th, 2010 at 4:31 pm

    Someone said Shane is eligible for arbitration next year too? How could that be?
    More than 5 to 7 mil for Shane (say 3 perhaps 4 years) would be silly.
    I believe that it would not be that hard to keep a pretty reliable Joe B. as your 3rd or 4th starter (really depends on Happ’s showing this year) could cost between 6 and 7.5 mil, at best. And, I bet Ruiz would be satisfied with between 4 and 5 mil/year (perhaps 3?).
    I’d hold off on Durbin as long as possible, see what this years results would be.

25. ALPHONSE DATTOLO Says:
    January 16th, 2010 at 5:02 pm

    NO MATTER WHOM THE PHILLIES TRADE OR KEEP THEY WILL BE THE 2010 WORLD CHAMPIONS OF MASEBALL. I HAVE BEEN A PHILLIES FAN FOR 50 YEARS.

26. The Dipsy Says:
    January 16th, 2010 at 6:08 pm

    AHHHHHGGGHHHHH! I meant Werth for 11-12m, not Shane! My bad.

    Now, if the Phillies are really, truly interested in keeping this team going strong “now, and into the future” (rationale for Lee deal), they should trade Howard on or before August 31, 2011. Yes, it is true…we will be outbid for Howard when his deal expires. No question. In fact, the Phils are for some reason out of it by the trade deadline this year, they should trade him this year. And he will bring a boatload. Good players. Prospects. Pitching. Our team will be able to absorb the loss if done right.

    SS – Rollins
    CF- Gillies
    RF- Werth
    1B -Utley
    3B- Zimmerman
    LF – Brown
    2B – Polanco
    C – Ruiz

    The Dipsy

27. WFC010 Says:
    January 16th, 2010 at 6:51 pm

    LOL Duckworth!

    I never thought i’d see him again with the Phillies in ANY kind of capacity!

28. psujoe Says:
    January 16th, 2010 at 7:51 pm

    Phillies should easily be able to handle Howards 20-23 million salary. Ibanez+Lidge=23 million and both expire after 2011. It’s going to come down to years. Werth(2010)+Moyer(2010) = 14 million for Werth next year. The key is a good #3 that’s relatively inexpensive so they have money for Hamels.

29. j reed Says:
    January 16th, 2010 at 11:24 pm

    Durbin’s post season, until that last game of the WS was excellent. After one of the wins against the Rox he told an interviewer that he attributed his success to the improvements made to his curveball with the help of Myers. One of the scouting criticisms of Durbin was an effective outpitch. Maybe this new and improved curve will be that pitch or perhaps it can, in setting up one of his other pitches, make said other pitch more effective and therefore a more viable out pitch. I think he’ll have a decent year but let him prove it before make any offers.

30. Jeff of Nova Says:
    January 17th, 2010 at 12:46 am

    Paul,
    Really you are saying Vic’s fielding is not good anymore, he just won a Gold Glove what pipe are you smoking? Vic is one of the best outfielder’s in the league he covers a lot of ground and has great speed and range

    Not sure you have a realistic grasp of what the market is or what these players are worth sadly

31. Paul Boye Says:
    January 17th, 2010 at 2:29 am

    I trust metrics like UZR and +/- ahead of Gold Gloves, which are arbitrarily voted on in a hasty manner by managers and players and hardly comprehensive. Vic’s D has been trending down the past 3 years.

32. George Says:
    January 17th, 2010 at 2:30 am

    Dipsy:
    If the Phils try to trade Howard in 2011, they won’t get all that much, because he’ll only have a year left on his contract. The Twins got very little for Santana, Cleveland the same for Lee. No one wants to trade a lot for a rental, even if it’s a one year rental. That’s not to say that they shouldn’t try IF the team is way out of the race; it’s just saying don’t get your hopes up on any gigantic return.

    And Paul Boye: I can’t figure how a player like Howard, who consistently leads the league in RBIs, is NOT worth $20 million, given the salaries being handed out these days. He’s a dangerous hitter who can and does carry the whole team at times, and he’ll likely be doing it even when he’s 35. Alex Rodriguez is several years older, drove in fewer runs, and gets paid a whole lot more; he’ll be 35 this year and I haven’t read a single comment about HIM slowing down.

33. Keith E Says:
    January 17th, 2010 at 8:59 am

    Ruiz should double his salary from last year! That doesn’t seem fair. Chooch plays the most demanding position on the team and still will not make a million dollars. I’ll never understand the business side of baseball.
    GO PHILS!!!

34. Chuck Says:
    January 17th, 2010 at 9:36 am

    Dipsy…

    If the Phillies can extend Howard 5 years at $20 MM a season…then I’d do it in a minute….question is whether or not Ryan wants to get BIGGER bucks on the open market….23-25 per year I would think….and some team out there would probably give him MORE than five years ….so that’s a whole lot of guaranteed money left on the table…

    I doubt Jayson Werth would accept 4/45….with Bay’s contract this year….I would think Werth could get more…but then…who knows…???\

35. The Dipsy Says:
    January 17th, 2010 at 9:56 am

    Remember Chuck, that 4/45 for Werth starts this year, where he is making 7m.

    George – While of course we would not get what we could in the middle of 2010 in 11, I think we’d still get a lot. Hitters get more in deadline deals than pitchers, so I think. Plus, perhaps Howard will have an extension in place with that team as part of the deal. Either we, we would get good players back I think.

    The Dipsy

36. Chuck Says:
    January 17th, 2010 at 10:21 am

    So basically extend him 3 years then, right??….

    So then it’s $38MM for the next 3 years starting in 2011…he might do that..

37. The Dipsy Says:
    January 17th, 2010 at 10:40 am

    Thats right Chuck. And he gets a little more cash this year which adds value to the deal. I don’t really wanna sign the gut to a 5 year deal taking him to age 36 or 37.

    The Dipsy

38. WFC010 Says:
    January 17th, 2010 at 10:49 am

    What about RyHo being extended for 3-4 years, with an option for a 5th year? Would you think that’d be a good idea?

39. Jeff of Nova Says:
    January 17th, 2010 at 10:49 am

    Paul,

    I trust what I see, not some nerds math equation! Yes baseball is stats drivin, but it is a sport with a lot of Human elements to it. He is one of the best fielders in the league period!

40. mike mike Says:
    January 17th, 2010 at 10:54 am

    Howard wont take 20 million a year for 5 years, i dont think. Most of what I have read is his father is his advisor and wants a ton, expect free agency for him, you would get a ton for him if you trade him and let the team negotiate a long term deal. Look what the RED sox gave up Hanley Ramirez . you underestimate what teams would do for a slugger.

41. Manny Says:
    January 17th, 2010 at 11:14 am

    Howard was signed to a 3-year deal in 2009!!! What’s the rush to extend him right now? You gotta wait till 2010 is over at least. He’ll be here for 2 more seasons… and stuff happens, things change in 2 years, whether for good or for bad.

    Also, I don’t expect Big Joe to get a big raise in arbitration… this one is gonna be an interesting case between the two sides. I’m curious to see what are the actual figures they put on the table. Joe’s numbers as a whole aren’t really that amazing to justify a substantial raise.

42. Chuck Says:
    January 17th, 2010 at 11:25 am

    Yeah…I really have my doubts about Howard doing a 5/100 deal..SOME team..Angels, Red Sox…will give him MORE guaranteed money…and he’ll take it…wouldn’t you??

43. The Dipsy Says:
    January 17th, 2010 at 12:45 pm

    By the time Ryan gets to the end of his deal he will have made mega money already in his career. One would think that an already ultra rich player might think about giving his home team a discount at age 32. I mean, at that point, whats is really the difference for the player between 20m and 23m a year. I know, I know…..3m.

    The Dipsy

44. Chuck Says:
    January 17th, 2010 at 12:56 pm

    Let’s say the Phillies offer 5/100…and….say…the Red Sox offer 6/23 or even 7/23…

    Do you really think Ryan Howard is going to leave between $38 and $61 million dollars on the table?…just to play for the Phillies??

    It will be THE one huge contract of his career…he would be a fool to walk away from that kind of coin…I sure wouldn’t.

45. Manny Says:
    January 17th, 2010 at 1:00 pm

    “Do you really think Ryan Howard is going to leave between $38 and $61 million dollars on the table?…just to play for the Phillies??”

    Roy Halladay did.

46. shag beta sigma delta Says:
    January 17th, 2010 at 1:09 pm

    That is why you do not let him get into free agency, you extend his contract, that is where you get the discount, because there are not other offers out there. You extend him 3 or 4 more years at say 19 mill first year 20 mill second year and 21 mill third year and 23 in the fourth. Four years 84-85 million, before he hits the free market.
    And Chuck you are asking me if I would do 5/100 million to stay in Philly, my answer is yes, cause I already made a ton of cash, set my family up for life, and I would like to play for the Phillies.
    Not saying he would just to play here, but I think a lot of you underestimate the value of winning, and how some people would like to be loyal to a team.

47. Chuck Says:
    January 17th, 2010 at 1:16 pm

    Here’s the difference with that, though…Ryan Howard has a ring…and a lot more success as far as the team winning…

    It’s not to say that he doesn’t still want to win…

    But Roy Halladay…great as he is…wants a ring…he wants to play for a team that has a legitimate shot at going to the World Series… he’s really never been on a contending team..

    So he’s more willing to walk away from a lot of extra money in order to get that shot..

    I don’t know…I mean I don’t know where Ryan’s head is…maybe he DOES give big discount to stay here..

    I just think that it’s more the EXCEPTION and not the norm…that guys give those kind of “home-town discounts”…

48. Chuck Says:
    January 17th, 2010 at 1:17 pm

    Red Sox would give him a big contract to play…and they’re winners as well..

49. The Dipsy Says:
    January 17th, 2010 at 1:32 pm

    Three or four teams would give him a huge contract. I think an extension makes a lotta sense. NOBODY will give him a six year contract at age 32, though. Nobody. If I were the Fightins, I would offer him an extension of 3y/65m and see how he feels about it.

    The Dipsy

50. Chuck Says:
    January 17th, 2010 at 1:52 pm

    So that keeps him a Phillie for 5 more years…what $19 mil this year, 20 next and then 65…

    So that’s basically 5/104…maybe he does it…I would hope..

    You’re probably right…that most teams wouldn’t give a 6 year deal….maybe there’s one out there…I mentioned the Red Sox because of the short porch in right…and he could be a DH for the 6th year…sort of like Mo Vaughn or David Ortiz..

51. mike mike Says:
    January 17th, 2010 at 2:50 pm

    I want to see what discount pujous give st louis. Even if these guys want to give a discount the union will pressure them to get the most. If a team is offering 7 years 160 and the phillies are offering 5 which one y think the union will make him take

52. Chuck Says:
    January 17th, 2010 at 3:35 pm

    I would think that Pujols could get more than 5 years….and CERTAINLY more $$ than Howard..

53. George Says:
    January 17th, 2010 at 3:49 pm

    There have been too many “what ifs” with all these postings. Let’s talk about Brandon Duckworth, instead, because he’s not a “what if,” but a “has been.”

54. Pat Gallen Says:
    January 17th, 2010 at 6:46 pm

    Dipsy, was it you that said you did not think Victorino would get $6 million?

    I just read that Heath Bell got a hefty raise on his arb from just over $1 million, to $4 million. So it’s certainly feasible that Victorino gets that kind of dough.

55. The Dipsy Says:
    January 17th, 2010 at 8:12 pm

    I think Shane will get close to 6m but not quite. 5.5m or something like that. Thats more than 2m raise, correct?

    The Dipsy

56. The Original Chuck P Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 10:59 am

    I would be surprised if Shane got much more than $5 million but I don’t have much to base that off of. I was looking at 2011 free agents and what they got in their final two years under control… Carl Crawford is a free agent in 2011 and made $5.357 in 2008… Shane’s offensive numbers are nowhere near Crawford’s. I don’t know… Crawford signed a contract in 2005 that bought out his arb years so it’s not the same. Honestly, I can’t find a great comparison.

    I like Shane but I’ve always said that he’s replaceable and hopefully the arbitrators look at the numbers and not the accolades (his numbers tell the story)… he’s a slap hitting speedster with below average on-base skills. In th field, he’s above average. I’m being generous bycalling him an above average fielder… I know that he won a couple of gold gloves but let’s face it, the NL isn’t exactly chock full of center fielders (and CBP isn’t the toughest OF to patrol). The days of Jim Edmonds and Garry Maddox are long gone. Last year’s GG winners in the OF were weak… really weak. He’s got a really strong/accurate arm and he has decent speed but he doesn’t always get good reads on balls and he doesn’t always take the best routes to balls hit deep and that will catch up to him at some point.

57. Chuck Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 11:05 am

    I agree, Original C P….$6 mil for Vic seems like too much to me…and I absolutely agree that he’s replaceable..

    I would love the Phillies to just consider Jayson Werth THE priority as far as outfielders are concerned…to me…Werth is the one that’s more valuable to the team moving forward.

    I don’t think sign

58. Chuck Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 11:07 am

    I don’t think signing Vic long-term is in the Phillies best financial interests…considering the looming contract issues with Werth, Howard, Rollins…

59. The Dipsy Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 11:41 am

    Wait a second. Shane Victorino is a very good fielder. Whats the problem here with the fielding all of a sudden? I think that you can get what Shane does for cheaper than what Shane does it for. He’s got holes in his game, no doubt, but I don’t think fielding is one.

    The Dipsy

60. Don M Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 11:44 am

    to the comment above..

    If the Phillies were to offer Jayson Werth a 4 year, $45 M contract right now… I would imagine he would take it!

    He has ONE standout year on his resume… and you do get paid almost equal parts PAST PERFORMANCE.. and WHAT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FUTURE

    so if he can lock up that much money right now, I would have to believe he would do it… someone start the rumors swirling, forcing Ruben Amaro to address them, and making him realize its a great deal for both sides!

61. Don M Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 11:46 am

    +/- stuff, zone ratings, etc.. I don’t know what any of that means..

    I watch Shane Victorino on just about a daily basis… he’s as good as any CF in baseball …. are there a handful of guys we’d rather have.. Yea I guess so, but Victorino, defensively covers a TON of ground, and has a cannon for an arm

    his one fault is that he sometimes hesitates coming-in on balls, and goes into a slide/dive late, and lets a ball play him, instead of him playing the ball … but overall he’s awesome with the glove.. despite what some random rating may say

62. Chuck Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 11:51 am

    But is he worth $6 Mil.??..based on the market as it is now

63. The Original Chuck P Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 12:03 pm

    I’m not looking at numbers either, Don… I’m going by what I see and what I see tells me that he’s Aaron Rowand with less power. What I see tells me that he makes plays look harder than they are. The great center fielders are the ones that make them look easy…

    Rowand won a GG, too… Vic is a good fielder but he’s not great. His arm is great, I will give you that but in any other ballpark, he probably doesn’t win a gold glove.

64. Don M Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 12:11 pm

    What does playing 81 games in CBP have to do with him winning the Gold Glove?

    I think if he played in a BIGGER park, he would be even better… more ground to cover, and his speed and “playmaking” would come into play more..

    I can’t count the number of times i’ve seen long drives to the gap that I counted as a double……up until Victorino tracks it down running to the warning track.

    And I love Werth, and he’s a legit CF option at some point.. but it will be a slight downgrade from Victorino

    Its nice that Rowand won a Gold Glove.. you think he’s better than Victorino though?

65. Don M Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 12:15 pm

    $6 M for a “Gold Glove winning” (as much or little value as that has)..

    and the guy that lead the team in hitting the past two seasons.. and seems to step up in big moments…

    Im not the world’s biggest Victorino fan by any stretch.. but I definitely want him on the team if he only costs $6 M … that’s a great price

66. The Original Chuck P Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 12:29 pm

    $6 million would be reasonable if he was a free-agent… I think you’re misinterpreting the discussion. I’m talking about Victorino’s pending arbitration/negotiations… the business of baseball… and in that light his value is limited as an arbitration eligible player and therefore the Phillies shouldn’t have to pay him any more than what the guidelines say (he does not deserve the same money that a veteran makes because that’s how it works… the same reason why Ruiz didn’t even clear $1 million last year). So yes, even at $6 million, that’s a deal for Victorino BUT given the situation, I don’t think he’s worth that much and I don’t think he’ll get that much. If he does, that tells me that he’ll be in line for a bigger free-agent contract than we’ll be willing/able to pay. So yes, I’m hoping that he doesn’t get $5 million…

67. Don M Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 12:36 pm

    my fault.. I though people were on an extension talk, not just his arbitration number..

    my guess is they’ll settle somewhere around $5

    two Gold Gloves, and let the team in batting both seasons.. he’s got an arguement that he should be paid .. if he came into an arbitration hearing with a number around $6-7 M .. there is a very good chance he could win that

    or maybe they put too much on POWER numbers in those cases?

68. Chuck Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 12:42 pm

    Exactly….if it was an EXTENSION…the $6 Mil would be a steal for Victorino…and that’s where I make the point that Victorino will most likely command MORE than $6…and then it becomes an issue of can the Phillies afford him….with all the other contract issues..

69. The Dipsy Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 1:01 pm

    They should sign him to a 2y/11m contract and be done with it.

    The Dipsy

70. Chuck Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 1:08 pm

    I think Victorino laughs at that.

71. The Dipsy Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 1:11 pm

    He’s got an arb year coming up next year so perhaps not.

    The Dipsy

72. Chuck Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 1:19 pm

    Still….I would think that HE would think he could get more….how much is the question…

73. The Original Chuck P Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 1:21 pm

    So we agree… $6 million is probably the high number for arbitration purposes (the number that Vic might bring to the table if he’s feeling really lucky). The Phils will probably be looking at something a little less ($5). Let’s settle on $5.5 and call it a day, shall we? That’s a sizeable raise…

    Now, how about that extension… 2/$11 as Dip suggested… I’d say that’s a decent deal but I don’t think Vic will. In order for us to buy out his arbitration years (which is what I expect the Phillies will be trying to do), we’ll have to throw him a raise in 2011 but if I’m the GM, I’m happy letting Vic go year-to-year…

    Beyond 2010, he’ll be a free agent in 2012 and he’ll be looking for some long-term assurance and I don’t think we’ll be jumping at 3-4 year deal for Vic in 2012… especially given the other contract commitments that will be staring down at us. So we give him a one-year deal this year and a one-year deal next year and pay our respects to the Flyin’ Hawaiian.

74. The Dipsy Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 1:29 pm

    No problem with that.

    The Dipsy

75. Don M Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 1:30 pm

    He gets a definite 20% raise, right?

    so from
    $3,125,000.00
    to
    $3,725,000.00

    Phillies will have to offer at least $4.5 M …and I would imagine Vic asks for $7M… he probably would lose that case, so I would think they’ll settle

    even if its $6 M in arbitration, the Phillies still save a million…and pay a fair price for an All-Star caliber player.

    Maybe Vic doesn’t have all that much value though.. the other players like him who play solid defense, and steal bases, etc.. guys that come to mind include Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford … they also have some power, which is what would make them more valuable to other teams..

    thinking about it, Victorino should be looking for something guaranteed in the $20-25 Million range for 4 years … all sides would (or at least SHOULD) be happy ….something tells me he’ll be seeking a bigger payday though.. probably because he’s one of the cockiest players on the team (which is why im not a big fan of his)

76. Chuck Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 1:38 pm

    I agree…I think Shane feels he is worth more than he actually is..that’s why I think he laughs at 2/11..

    Seriously…the Phillies should try to do something reasonable…but NOT at the expense of compromising guys like Jayson Werth, Jimmy Rollins…and to some extent Ryan Howard (who they have LESS of a shot at signing long-term)

77. Don M Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 2:01 pm

    just read David Murphy’s blog on philly.com

    He projects:
    Victorino asking: $7.0 M
    Phillies offering: $6.0 M

    and that they’ll either go to arbirtration.. or settle at $6.65 M

    Since they have OF talent in the minors, he sees the Phillies going year to year with Victorino…

78. Chuck Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 2:38 pm

    I’m actually surprised that the Phils would offer that much…that’s almost a 100% increase in his salary from last season..

79. The Original Chuck P Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 2:51 pm

    I don’t know how he feels but I would imagine that his agent would compel him to shoot for the stars based on awards- I would say that the Phils should stick to their guns.

    His average is solid and he hits plenty of extra bases but his SB% has been hovering right around 75% for the past two seasons which is ok but rather disappointing considering he only stole 25 bases last year. Chase Utley has been an extremely effective base thief – successful about 88% of the time.

    For kicks, I wanted to see how guys like Juan Pierre and Jimmy Rollins stacked up against Rickey. Juan Pierre is 31 years old (a bit of a surprise… thought he was a little older) and the active leader in SB with 459 stolen bases. At age 31, Rickey had stolen 936 stolen bases. Jimmy is 8th on the active list with 326. Carl Crawford, who is only 27, has 362 stolen bases… Rickey had 660 by the time he was 27.

80. The Original Chuck P Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 3:13 pm

    At this point, I’d rank Vic 6th in the NL (CF) behind Beltran, Kemp, McCutchen, Carlos Gonzalez and McLouth… slightly ahead of Rowand, Ross and Bourn.

    In the AL, I’d add Ellsbury, Sizemore, Upton, Hunter, Adam Jones and Granderson… slightly ahead of Fukudome.

    Primed and ready: Rasmus, Maybin, Bourbon and Colvin.

81. Don M Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 3:21 pm

    Rickey used to run just for the hell of it though..

    guys really don’t do that anymore

    …
    McCutchen needs to play a little longer before he’s labeled one of the best..
    I would not say that Nate McLouth is better than Victorino either.. he’s got more Power, that’s about it

    probably the same with Carlos Gonzalez.. the postseason he had makes him look like one of the game’s elite young talents.. let’s see how he handles a full season or two as a starter though

    Maybin still sucks.. not sure how/why he hasn’t put it all together yet, he’s got the talent to be an MVP

82. The Original Chuck P Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 4:13 pm

    In a full season, McLouth will hit 25-30 HR and steal 25 bases. He has a gold glove and averages 95 runs/70 RBI per season. It’s close…

    Gonzalez hit .284 with 14 HR, 7 3B, 16 SB, and 14 2B in 278 AB… and he plays phenomenal defense. More power, a better base stealer and solid average… I would take Gonzalez.

    McCutchen is a stretch, too… but the kid is going to steal a ton of bases and he showed more power in his first season than anyone expected. If given the option, I’m taking McCutchen in 2010.

    Maybin is only 22 years old… he’s proven his worth in the field and has shown signs that he’ll be able to bring it all together at the plate. I think he’ll come around

83. Chuck Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 4:16 pm

    McCutchen is an amazing talent….the kid is fast!

    In the AL…watch out for Adam Jones..

84. The Original Chuck P Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 4:38 pm

    I had Jones ahead of Vic in the AL… his line should look something like .270, 25 HR, 15 SB, 80 RBI, 90 R… that’s filthy and he has a gold glove to his name (in the AL, where he beat out a few guys named Ellsbury, Granderson and Upton).

85. The Dipsy Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 4:40 pm

    You can keep Gonzalez and McClouth. I will take Bourn though over Shane. Shane’s agent won’t “shoot for the stars” because the arbitrators have to pick one figure over the other. If Shane asks too high, the the arbitrator can pick the Phils # even though he may feel it a little low, Gotta be careful. OC – Yes, Ricky ran whenever he wanted. It didn’t matter what the score was or what the count was. Before Rickey, if a player stole a base with his team up 7-1 late, his teammate at the plate gets thrown at. Beacuse of Ricky, that doesn’t happen anymore.

    The Dipsy

86. The Original Chuck P Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 4:44 pm

    I love watching McCutchen run the bases… Vic is fast but his biggest strength is that he doesn’t waste any time gettng out of the box (from the moment the ball leaves his bat, he’s thinking double or triple)- McCutchen hasn’t figured that out yet but he’s so fast that he makes up for it with his legs. He just glides…

87. The Original Chuck P Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 4:49 pm

    Rickey’s number will never be touched… he stole a lot of meaningless bases and ran for the hell of it but everyone knew he was running. He is the greatest leadoff hitter of all time by a mile… his athleticism changed the way we look at leadoff hitters. His picture would be in the dictionary next to the word “arrogance” but that’s what made him so good. If you want to knock his arrogance, that’s fine but you can’t deny that he’s the greatest of all time.

88. The Dipsy Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 4:58 pm

    OC – Some people would argue the Ichiro is better. Check the stats!

    The Dipsy

89. Chuck Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 5:01 pm

    Unrelated to this conversation…but noteworthy…

    Albert Pujols today is quoted as saying that he “would be willing to take a “discount” in a contract situation with the Cardinals “if it will make our organization better”"

    Just thinking about our own situation here with Howard…

90. The Original Chuck P Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 5:13 pm

    Ichiro plays RF… of course, we would all know that if he didn’t play in Seattle.

    The hair on the back of my neck just stood up thinking about how much Alert’s going to make.

    Why did PN take away the recent comments section on the lefthand side of the site?

91. Chuck Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 5:37 pm

    A few of us….me…Don M…and someone else (I forget who) …have been after PN about “The Last 4 Comments” section..

    Pat said he was looking into it…something to do with the server.

    It’s nice…because you know exactly where the “live” conversation is.

    ____

    Yeah…so just HOW much will Albert make??

    _____

    Rickey Hendeson IS arrogant as hell ..but I still love the guy..

92. The Dipsy Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 5:58 pm

    Ichiro plays rightfield, and……?

    The Dipsy

93. Chuck Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 6:15 pm

    I think the point was that Ichiro plays right….and the comparisons were of centerfielders.

94. The Dipsy Says:
    January 18th, 2010 at 7:04 pm

    I thought the comparison was leadoff men. And if you WERE talking about centerfielders, then it would have to be Willie Mays, no?

    The Dipsy

95. The Original Chuck P Says:
    January 19th, 2010 at 1:03 pm

    Ohhh!!!! I get it… there were two discussions going on. One talking about ranking active centerfielders and another talking about Rickey Henderson and leadoff men. I thought that you were saying that Ichiro was better than Vic (which is a no-brainer, except Ichiro plays RF). Soo… you’re actually saying that Ichiro is better than Rickey as a leadoff hitter which is a terrific debate.

    If you compare Ichiro’s first 9 seasons in MLB with Rickey’s 9 best consecutive seasons (age 21-29), their numbers are VERY close. Ichiro hit for better average, hit more RBI’s and more triples (and more hits). Rickey stole more bases and hit more HR… was successful 81% of the time, same as Ichiro. If Ichiro had played his entire career in the US, his numbers would be astonishing…

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