Time to Release Raul

Posted by Corey Seidman, Sun, June 06, 2010 10:37 PM

Raul Ibanez is killing the Phillies. I know, I know, there are a number of Phillies that are “killing the Phillies” right now: Jayson Werth, Chase Utley, the shortstop du jour, Greg Dobbs, etc.

But the difference is that the aforementioned players (with the exception of Dobbs) have contributed at some point this year and/or will contribute in the future.

Werth is in one of his “can’t-hit-any-pitch-that-any-righty-throws-me” modes, and Utley is experiencing an uncharacteristic early season slump, but both are talented players in their primes that will assuredly snap out of these funks and go back to raking.

Juan Castro is a cheap utility man and Wilson Valdez is an even cheaper utility man. Defensively, each has done an adequate job filling in for Jimmy Rollins, but they are the walking definitions of “replacement player.”

(Dobbs is 1-for-21 as a pinch-hitter this year, was 9-for-54 in that role last year, but nobody wants to give up on him because he had a good run as a bench bat in 2008. Cuz, ya know, we have SO MUCH evidence to show that 2008 was the real Greg Dobbs, and every other year of his career wasn’t. Whatever, that’s a topic for another day.)

Unlike the other slumping Phillies, Ibanez has contributed absolutely nothing since June 1, 2009.

Raul endeared himself to this fanbase last year by putting together a miraculous April and May, but has hit .234 since with one homer every 30 plate appearances. Wanna take a look at some more ugly numbers?

Ibanez’ slugging percentage in 2010 is .371, lower than David Eckstein, Jeff Keppinger, Will Venable, Jeff Francoeur, and Gaby Sanchez.
He is 85th in the NL in batting average, 65th in on-base percentage, and 70th in slugging percentage.
His OPS+ this year is 89 (100 is league average.)
Ibanez has eight multi-hit games this season (played 54.)
Ibby has been worth 0.2 wins BELOW replacement, and his WAR is 20th out of the 24 NL leftfielders with 100 or more plate appearances

And to top it all off, Ibanez has been the fourth worst defensive leftfielder in major league baseball this season – ahead of only Carlos Lee, Ryan Braun, and Lastings Milledge.

We’re not imagining his struggles.

From a baseball standpoint – and from a logical standpoint - there is no reason Raul Ibanez deserves to play everyday on a contending team. He has been awful at the plate and terrible in the field. Yet he continues to bat sixth everyday while the Phillies top prospect, who also happens to be a corner outfielder, is putting on a clinic in the pitcher-friendly Eastern League.

Domonic Brown is hitting .313/.382/.587 with 10 homers and 33 RBI for Reading. His .969 OPS leads the Eastern League, his .313 batting average is fifth, his ten homers are sixth, as are his 105 total bases. And I reiterate, Brown has done so in a pitcher’s league in which the collective ERA of the twelve teams is 4.06.

Releasing Raul

For weeks, I’ve been trying to figure out a peaceful solution to this problem. Ruben Amaro finds himself in a self-inflicted predicament, because Ibanez’ full no-trade clause all-but prevents the Phillies from sending him away and eating salary.

(Honestly, it wouldn’t matter if Ibby didn’t have a full NTC, because his age and lack of value would have been enough to make reluctant all 29 potential trade partners.)

So release him. Cut ties with an expensive underperfomer. Amaro did so twice last year, when he released Geoff Jenkins and Adam Eaton. The Phils cut Jenkins while paying his $6.75M salary in ‘09, plus an additional $1.25M club buyout for 2010. Eaton, too, earned a hefty chunk of change upon his release – $9.15M to be exact. All told, the Phils paid $17.15M for the right to rid themselves of two underperformers with bad contracts.

Ibanez is in the second year of a three-year, $31.5M deal of which he has already collected about fourteen million dollars. Subtract 14 million from 31.5 million and what do you get? 17.5 million, or just about exactly the amount of dead money the Phillies gave out to Jenkins and Eaton last year.

Financially, releasing Ibanez is no worse than releasing those two, and while consecutive years of dead money may be hard for a GM to explain to his superiors, it’s better than paying a player to hurt your team.

Letting Go

This is not an overreaction. These are not the exagerrated words of a WIP caller. There is no impulse or emotion guiding my thought process. Ibanez has been a black hole in the Phillies lineup for a year, and if his two-month hot streak took place at any time other than his first two months here, none of us would feel much of an attachment to him.

Is there ANY logical reason to keep him? Let’s take a look at the possible counter-arguments to cutting ties with Ibanez.

1) “He was great last year, you can’t cut him”

Response: No he wasn’t. He had two great months, one horrible month, and three average months. Plus, last year doesn’t matter anyway. Ibanez is a year older now, and 38 year-olds don’t typically rejuvenate as seasons wear on. He’s had three more awful months this season and is providing less value than 19 other left fielders on the fifteen other NL teams.

Just as Dobbs’ 2008 was an apparition, Ibanez’ April-May 2009 was an unsustainable, fluky time period that we only believed in because it coincided with our introduction to him. Does it make any sense at all to put more stock into the 210 plate appearances in April-May ‘09 than in his 560 plate appearances since?

2) “He’s a veteran and a good clubhouse guy.”

Response: So was Ken Griffey Jr. before he retired. So is Nick Punto. So was Clay Condrey. And Tomas Perez. And I’m sure Kevin Sefcik enjoyed patting his teammates on the back. Can we talk about baseball, though? And not ponies and unicorns riding in fields of daisies?

3) “He’s making too much money. Can’t give up on him for that reason alone.”

Response: So, because he is still due about seventeen million dollars, you have to pay him that and allow him to hurt the Phillies by going 2-for-every-9, pulling up short on balls other outfielders would get to, and clogging up the basepaths?

Oliver Perez is making a similar amount of money with the Mets, and they finally had the sense to stop pitching him every fifth day. Things got so bad that they sent him on a phantom DL trip. There is absolutely no need to let a player’s contract handcuff you in more ways than one.

4) “Just designate Greg Dobbs for assignment and move Raul to the bench.”

Response: You could do that. But it would mean having a five man bench that consists of three outfielders: Ibanez, Ben Francisco, and Ross Gload. Sure, Gload can technically play first base, but how many times would you sit Ryan Howard in favor of Gload? Dobbs, despite all of his struggles, can still play a slightly-below-average first, second, third, left field, and right field.

Plus, releasing a player with $17M left on his contract is still more realistic than making that player a $17M pinch-hitter. You coerce Raul to waive his no-trade clause, and if he doesn’t imply, you give him the outright release. Let him spread his wings and fly back to Seattle, a team so desperately in need of an offensive upgrade that they would probably take him back.

5) “Domonic Brown isn’t ready to step in and play everyday in the major leagues.”

Response: What does he have left to prove? Does he have to take his .313/.382/.587 slash-line up to Triple-A and show that he can also hit against washed up former major league pitchers? The Eastern League and its 4.06 ERA is every bit as much of a test as anything the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs face.

Brown is a dynamic left-handed hitter with fleet feet and a much better glove than Ibanez. He is no less ready at this exact moment than he will be in March 2011.

Bringing Brown up and inserting him into the six-hole would add a much-needed spark, help break up the monotonous stagnancy this lineup is prone to, and allow the Phillies to see what they have in him, in order to better judge what their move will be in the offseason (re: Jayson Werth.)

Final Word

I am not deeming Domonic Brown the savior to a team that has fallen to 11th in the NL in runs scored, nor am I saying that his wampum stick will definitively play in The Show.

I am merely explaining that anybody – literally…any replacement player – would be more valuable than Raul Ibanez right now, and when you couple the bleak outlook for Ibby with the fact that the Phils’ top prospect plays the same position, the answer is very simple.

If it’s not so simple to you, please give me one good reason the Phillies should continue to send out a slow, overmatched 38-year old corner outfielder who has done nothing in the last year other than bounce balls to the right side of the infield.

And no, “being a good guy,” or “being part of the 2009 NL Champs,” doesn’t count.

Permalink Comments (152) | Trackback (0)

152 Responses to “Time to Release Raul”

Jamie Tieman Says:
June 6th, 2010 at 11:48 pm
I completely agree!
Chuck Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 12:08 am
Look….The Phils probably don’t win the division and/or make the playoffs last year without Raul. Despite the “one horrible month and 3 average months” he was worth what they paid him last year……BECAUSE he was one of the main reasons for the Phils success. Last year he made us all forget about Pat Burrell and was a clear upgrade over Pat the Bat.

But……I must admit that it may be time for something drastic. Something HAS to change….whether it’s an all-out release….or a platoon situation with Ben Francisco. That platoon might actually help Ben Fran, too, because he’s just not a pinch-hitter alone.

If Raul were to be released in favor of bringing up Brown, one could justify the money part of it by saying that Brown’s salary will be next to nothing anyway. In other words, the cost to the Phillies for the left field position will be almost the same. And if Brown excels then you are getting more value in the cost of the position than you are right now.

I like Raul. For all the reasons that you mentioned. But it’s time for action. It’s time for a change.
adam Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 12:15 am
I agree with pretty much everything you said, but I would definitely cut Dobbs before Ibanez. Dobbs offers nothing at this point and I would rather have Ibanez on the bench than him. Am I missing something?
chitown Phillyfan Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 12:26 am
Does getting to chant “Raaauuuulllll” count? Sigh, as much as it pains me to say it, it might be time to cut ties. Can’t argue with anything you said.
John Quinn Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 12:28 am
That was a sledge hammer accurate appraisal of Ibanez. Signing a high priced end of career veteran player for more than a year almost always works against you in terms of total net returns. I think you would be hard pressed to find a fan who does not agree that it is time for change in left.
Chuck Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 12:40 am
If you all-out release Raul and bring up Brown it still may make sense to have a platoon in left with Ben Fran. It eases Brown into his role and it give Ben Fran more playing time.

I can’t see having Raul just as a pinch-hitter. Isn’t that what Gload is for?

And just because Raul has a NTC doesn’t mean that he could agree to something if the situation was right. And if I’m not mistaken, I don’t think that NTC is full. I think there are something like 4 teams that aren’t part of it?? If he was part of a package deal some team might bite….as strange as that sounds.
The Real Jeff Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:00 am
They will not release Raul. I think they need to do something. D. Brown can provide a spark to this team. Young and exciting. Raul gives us nothing. I really hope steroids has nothing to do with this team. Howard is getting paid alot of money to hit long balls. He is not. There is no reason we should lose to the Padres. We have much more talent. This team is horrible at running the bases. Release Blanton why your at it. He is aweful. Package him and Raul for Oswalt. That would be nice.
Thomas Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:06 am
Nicely thought out piece, Corey. 17.5 million is still a lot of money, especially for an organization that wasn’t ready to devote 9 million to having a solid number two (1A) starter. I think they view money spent to free up roster space by the space(s) opened up, and that might be a little much to free up one roster space. That said, I am very interested and excited to see what Brown can bring to the big club. Is there room enough for both players? Ben Francisco, would buying him out be a cheaper solution? Raul is a competitor, but seems to strongly want a ring, may be willing to play a bench role on a contending team?
Ryan H. Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:08 am
I whole heartedly disagree with the ideas of the writer here. Raul has been a streaky player his whole career. if you look at his season by season numbers and go month by month you can see how his numbers greatly variate. but at the end of the year they balance out . I am ready for raul to hit his groove soon. I guarantee it is coming.
MikeB. Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:09 am
Hard to argue with the points made in this post. I cannot seen platooning Brown, if he is called up, with Francisco. See what Brown does against both righties and lefties for a period of time and then platoon him if he winds up struggling against lefties.
Corey Seidman Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:11 am
Adam – reread the article. I tried to add in a paragraph about why releasing Dobbs rather than Raul would make less sense, but the site was down for a while so I couldn’t get it up (pause.)

And Ryan H – This isn’t a matter of streakiness. If it is, it’s ranged from June 2009-June 2010.
MikeB. Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:14 am
Is Oswalt really the answer here in Philly? Have you noticed his record? He has gotten bombed in his last couple of starts.
Corey Seidman Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:18 am
Thomas – I understand your sentiments, but Ben Francisco is talented and young, a once-and-future starter in this league. He is also under team control for several more years and won’t make more than ~$1M for a little while.

In buying him out, you wouldn’t be saving any money, and you would be giving up on a younger, much, much, much cheaper, probably more valuable (at this point) righthanded version of Raul.
Phylan Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:25 am
Yeah this pretty much sums it up. If only someone had written a nice summation of why this was a bad idea when Rube gave him 3 guaranteed years. Oh wait, a shitload of people did, myself included.

Anyhow I’m actually going to suggest Ibanez should not be cut quite yet. As others have said, Dobbs should be the first to go. But besides that, Ibanez’s old player skills are kicking in a bit. He’s walking more, striking out less, and, as a result, his BB/K ratio is higher than it has ever been in his career. Despite a line drive percentage that’s his highest since 2005, his BABIP is only .257, compared to his career mark of .304.

He’s not going to be good. He’s never going to earn that ridiculous contract. But he could be a useful bench bat, if someone could convince Charlie to stop playing him, and find a suitable platoon situation (perhaps Mayberry/some other dude).
Phylan Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:27 am
To sum it up in a way that actually makes sense, what I’m saying is that Ibanez is getting somewhat unlucky right now, and will never be starter-caliber, but could be an OK 4th/5th OF. I agree with the sentiment at the heart of your article though.
Greg Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:37 am
I’d rather have him as a bat off of the bench and situational platoon player if Francisco fails to hit righties. In fact, if Dobbs were to be let go, Raul could be a situational lefty off of the bench with Gload, and someone like Mayberry could be brought up as a 5th OF.

No depth at 3b though, minus Castro.
Corey Seidman Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:39 am
Phylan – Ibanez is 21-for-34 on line drives this season, a batting average of .618.

The league average batting average on line drives is about .730; if four more of Ibanez’ liners fell in, he would find himself at .734. If he had four more hits, he’d be hitting .251 instead of .229.

I see your point, but you also need to take into account that older players tend to have lower BABIPs.

He’s just hitting a lot of weak grounders to second and short. He’s 23-for-88 (.261) on balls considered “up the middle” this year, while he was 79-for-221 (.357) on balls up the middle last year.

His lack of ability to time a fastball has resulted in many a weak out.
Phylan Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:52 am
I understand, but he’d be hitting .251/.351/.404 instead of his current .234/.332/.380. The former is not a bad bench bat at all.
Jeremy Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:55 am
Nope, Brown still needs work with his route running in the OF on fly balls. The kid is something special at the plate but there is more to it than that and you don’t rush a prospect like that. Raul is a problem but the easy answer isn’t always the right one.
Corey Seidman Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:58 am
Right. But then the bench would be: backup catcher, utility infielder, outfielder, outfielder, outfielder. And none of those 3 outfielders can play any position (except Gload, who can play first if Ryan Howard gets kidnapped.)

At least with Dobbs, you have a guy who can play first and corner outfield, as well as fake it at third (and second in an emergency.)

It’s not so much a matter of “who is better right now between Ibby and Dobbs,” as much as it is “DFA’ing Dobbs and putting Ibanez on the bench makes it an incredibly un-versatile, handcuffing bench.”
MikeB. Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 2:15 am
With the way Ibanez is hitting now as a starter, I doubt the prospects would be any better at his age coming off of the bench cold as a pinch hitter.
Phylan Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 2:18 am
Well Dobbs can’t really “play” corner outfield by the traditional definition (although neither can Gload but that’s not stopped Charlie from running him out there). Dobbs is already half a win below replacement right now, and you can find some league minimum scrub that can actually play a few positions with competence to replace him.

I’m more concerned with passable production than bench versatility I guess, and even if Ibanez is a ball and chain financially, it’s one that we won’t be able to shed either way, and Dobbs is a bigger waste of a roster spot. I’m not really inherently opposed to cutting Raul at all. I just don’t think it’s that necessary right now, and I don’t think it would make much of a difference.
Vote Pat the Bat Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 2:39 am
Remember in the second half of 2009 Raul was playing with a sports hernia and other injuries. For that reason alone, you can’t reasonably compare those numbers with those from this year. It’s only the beginning of June, and more than half of the season remains for Raul to put together respectable numbers. Brown has only been at Reading for 2 months anyhow.
Kennedy Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 5:34 am
Jesus, he’s got 6000 career plate appearances, and you guys all want to release him over the last 2 or 3 hundred. His OPS was .899 last year. It isn’t even mid-June. He’s got two years of team control left.

And the laughable solution? Dom Brown? As much as I think Brown is a future starter, he’s not going to come into the majors and keep hitting like he is in AA. Hahaha, he’s struck out 41 times in only 179 ABs. He has not shown the power or the SB skills he needs to carry that kind of K-rate (and he will strike out a lot more in the majors).

You don’t just release a fifteen year veteran signed for two more years because he’s slumping (and still has a .700 OPS, which isn’t immediately replaceable).

You especially don’t do it because you have a 22 year old kid whose value comes primarily from the fact that he should develop power AS HE GETS OLDER. Dom Brown is not MLB ready, he is a work in progress.

Yes, Ibanez is basically currently at 0.0 WAR (he’s barely negative because of the last couple games). This statistic designates Wins Above a non-existent hypothetical replacement player. The Phillies do not have such a player. They have Ross Gload, Greg Dobbs, and Ben Francisco, all of whom are having worse seasons than Ibanez.

Honestly, I’m seriously irritated by this one. This is not what a knowledgeable fanbase would suggest. Dom Brown? Are you serious? Release Ibanez, who just had a .808 OPS May, to call up Dom Brown, who has never faced a MLB pitcher. It is not an easy transition from AA to MLB. Does anyone here seriously believe that if you put Ibanez in AA, he wouldn’t have a better OPS than .969? Fucking Wilson Valdez has a .975 OPS in AAA, does that mean we should release Chase Utley and make Valdez our second baseman? Steven Strasburg had more than a SO per IP in the Eastern League, cause half those guys can’t hit MLB grade pitches.

Yes Ibanez is slumping, and yes he is overpaid. Yes that contract was too large for a player of his age. But no, we should not release him with no suitable alternatives.

More than likely he is going to have a couple hot months this year and end the season regressed to a mean of like an .815 OPS, which isn’t great for a guy paid that much, but us much better than releasing him and starting a 22 year old kid who is having a nice season in AA.

If you want to see what a kid who is ready to go from AA to the Majors looks like on a stat line, check out Jason Heyward. In AA last year (age 19 season), he had 195 ABs, and struck out only 19 times. His OBP was .446. He reached base due to a walk 34 times.

In comparison, in 179 ABs in AA this year (age 22 season), Dom Brown has already amassed 41 Ks. That’s more than double Heyward’s tally, in less ABs. He has only walked 23 times. He hasn’t demonstrated the speed he will need to steal in the majors, nor has he demonstrated anything than power that is developing (much like Heyward’s). His OBP is .382, not bad, but not demonstrating MLB-ready ability.

In MLB this year, in only 184 ABs, Heyward has struck out 45 times. More than double his rate in AA last year. If Dom Brown also doubled his K rate in the switch from AA to MLB, he would strike out like 80 times in less than 200 ABs. That’s more than a bad season from Ryan Howard. In Howard’s worst strikeout season, 2007, he struck out roughly once every 2.67 ABs. We accepted this mainly because he mashed 47 HRs. If we extrapolate Dom Brown’s K numbers using Jason Heywards multiplier from the Eastern League to the National League (2.5), we would get a K once every 1.98 ABs. Yes, that’s right, Brown would strike out half the time.

Now obviously, it wouldn’t be that bad, but just as obviously Brown needs to get his K’s down and his walks up to make the transition.

So no, Brown is not ready for The Show, and no, we should not release a guy who hit for a .899 OPS last year because he has slumped for the first 2.25 months of the season. That’s idiotic. Even Ed Wade isn’t that dumb.

Baseball is all about regressing to the mean. This early in the season, the difference between good and bad is like 10 hits. Ibanez could go from terrible season to average season with a one week hot streak.

P.S. Nice comparison to Griffey, except that he hasn’t had a season as good as Ibanez’s 2009 since fucking 2005, and hasn’t even come close since 2007. It took two mediocre seasons before he dropped off the map. I’d rather compare David Ortiz, who in 2009 hit for a .623 OPS in May and an even worse .520 OPS in June.

What happened then? Oh, he got hot in early June and hit for a 1.062 OPS that month. He hit for a .866 OPS after the All-Star Break. Imagine how dumb they’d feel if they’d released him. A ton of fans were calling for it. It’s a shame, I thought Philly fans were smarter on average than the Bhaston fans.
Kennedy Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 5:35 am
Wow, that was long, thank you insomnia. Honestly I should just have a column.
Kennedy Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 5:37 am
Oh, and for the Ortiz example, he hit .623 in April and .520 in May, 1.062 in June.
Crashburn Alley » Blog Archive » Should the Phillies Break Up with Raul? Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 6:47 am
[...] Phillies Nation, Corey Seidman has authored a thought-provoking piece on what the Phillies should do with Raul Ibanez going [...]
NJ Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 7:06 am
Oh come on give the guy a break, give someone a chance to get playing time at his expense sure but it serves no purpose banging on chest for his release. The team ALWAYS slump around June and miraculously pick it back up.
Chuck Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 7:18 am
So how long do you wait to do something, NJ? I just can’t see Raul miraculously breaking out of it in the next week or so.

That said, I do agree that Dobbs should be the first to go when J-Roll returns. Keep Valdez on the roster…..he’s done well and he’s really here for his defense anyway, something that Dobbs lacks. Plus….with J-Roll’s injury who really knows if he is gonna be ok for awhile. And it looks like the Phils would risk losing Valdez this time around because someone would most likely claim him off waivers.
Manny Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 7:49 am
People seriously expect a career .290 hitter to fall off a cliff and hit .229 just because he’s a year older???

Sure, cut Raul when you’re just 2 games behind 1st place in June… THAT’ll send a message…
George Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 8:22 am
I don’t think Ibanez should be released just yet. He’s always been streaky, and this year he had his entire off season preparation loused up due to injury recovery. He could still come out of it.

That said, I do believe that he needs to sit more. Francisco can face the tougher lefties while Ibanez is getting his timing right and his confidence up against lesser pitchers. It would also give Ben a chance to improve his own hitting.

If Brown comes up before he’s completely ready, he might look no better than Mayberry did last year.

If Ibanez continues to show no pulse, THEN you release him.

Also, I think, too, that Dobbs is done. When Rollins comes back, the Phils should keep Valdez. He can at least play an important position, and he’s even hitting better than Dobbs. The injuries this year so far have shown that the Phils really need two legitimate backup infielders, not a lousy defensive 3rd baseman.
The Dipsy Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 8:45 am
Wow. I come online to find Aumont has been demoted and the world wants to release Ibanez. While I agree with almost everything Corey wrote, the Phillies just won’t release him when the benefits of doing so would be marginal at best (since there is no bright idea what to do in RF) and RAJ would be conceding to a huge blunder. Not saying he wouldn’t be forced to do it at some point, but not quite yet. I think Raul would have to devolve into a corpse before RAJ does that. Its too bad. When you sign guys to contracts like that, in the end, there is no way out of them. I guess if RAJl could get ANYTHING for Raul, while paying %75 of his contract to boot, it would be preferable to just outright releasing him. The again, no one should ever make huge decisions like this while the team is mired in a horrific slump. This seems like an All-Star break decision.

The Dipsy
The Dipsy Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 8:46 am
Make that LF

The Dipsy
Rakim Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 9:00 am
Does anyone still love that Ibanez contract? Didn’t think so.
Zach L Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 9:02 am
This article brings a big smile to my face. I have been anti-Ibanez since the day he was signed. He was an all around liability last year and continues to be one this year. There’s a difference between being streaky (J Werth) and just being old and overmatched for a year plus, Ryan H. We can only hope that Amaro can swallow his pride and pull the plug on a player that should have never been signed by the phils in the first place. Give Ben Fran a ten or so game audition out in left, and if nothing positive comes from it, bring up D. Brown.
bfo_33 Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 9:46 am
Agree that you wait until the all-star break to make this decision. Ibanez has a history of being a streak player, and has looked better at the plate the last several weeks (although the results aren’t where they should be). If he even comes back to his career average, Ib is the best option in left field right now. Give him another month.

Dobbs on the other hand had what appears to be a freak year in 2008, and is a poor fielder at any position. We don’t really know when Rollins is coming back (or how long he’ll stay), and PP needs breaks, gets banged up. Two back-up infielders are needed – I’d rather keep a weak righty bat, decent defender than a weak lefty bat, bad defender. If Rollins comes back, Dobbs goes.
Maverick Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 9:47 am
I completely Disagree. You have to keep him. He can’t possibly get any worse! According to the law of averages he is due for a rebound.
Manny Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 9:53 am
Just like when we were looking at the numbers and saying Jamie Moyer was done, done, done –and in 2010 he has pitched 2 CGs and has an ERA under 4.00– Raul will also come back and have better numbers this season.

Throw whatever numbers you want, but we’re talking about a player who keeps himself in top shape, who hustles, who has an excellent track record… you don’t fire guys like him in early June when your team is just 2 games behind the division leader.

Chill the hellllll out.
The SHART Factor Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 9:58 am
Sign him up for three more years but for less money. Instead of $31 mil for three years, give him just $15 mil….this is what Amaro may be thinking and we will have him for five more years…..wow.

Seriously, this was a really good article and one that — if Amaro does do the RIGHT thing — and releases Ibanez, may have a galvanic and positive effect on the team. Bring up Brown. Don’t let him vegitate in the minors like we did with Howard and Utley. Get him some experience hitting major league hitters. Brown likely will get better and add youth to the team. Ibanez likely will be worse.

Respectfully,

Bart Shart
Scotch Man Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 10:14 am
You people are on some hard drugs if you think Amaro is going to release Ibanez in the middle of the season. It takes the Phillies a lot longer than that to admit a mistake.

Ibanez is probably the first guy to tell you he’s having a lousy season. Clutch situation after clutch situation, he comes up empty. At 38, you do ask the “is he washed up?” question but just as Moyer showed us this year, you can come back from that. I’m not ready to throw in the towel on Raul just yet.
Corey Seidman Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 10:17 am
Kennedy –

1) I’d caution you against hyperbole. We’re talking about the last 600 plate appearances, not the last 200. There is also a very, very, very big difference between being under contract and being under “team control.”

Ben Francisco is under “team control” for another few years, Raul Ibanez is under “bad contract” for another few years. Wee bit of a difference.

2) Tie yourself in knots all you want about Domonic Brown striking out 41 times in 204 plate appearances, because his Double-A slash-line equates to a .261/.318/.465 in MLB right now…a massive upgrade to Ibanez.

3) I didn’t compare Raul Ibanez to Ken Griffey, Jr. I don’t understand how any rational person could come to that conclusion. Did I also “compare Raul Ibanez to Kevin Sefcik?” I was using those players in order to explain that “good clubhouse guy” means nothing.

4) You chose to compare Ibanez and David Ortiz using OPS, which I have a really hard time understanding, mostly because you’re comparing one of the most feared guys of the generation, with a career .916 OPS, to Raul Ibanez, who has an .833 mark. It’s apples and oranges. It’s totally different situations, and Ortiz starting to hit homers and pile his OPS back up means absolutely, positively nothing in regard to a hitter with far less power rolling weak grounders to second base and looking overmatched against virtually every type of pitcher.

5) Ibanez hasn’t slumped for the first 2.25 months of the season. He’s been a black-hole for a year. The numbers are in the article if you don’t believe me: .234 since June ‘09, 1 HR every 30 plate appearances.

6) To whoever mentioned it being unfair because of Ibanez’ injury last year – all that does is belabor MY point. Look, I’m not criticizing Ibanez’ character, I’m showing you how awful he’s been for a calendar year. It all started with an injury, but that doesn’t make it any less real. If anything, it gives it more reason to believe he WON’T get better.

7) Kennedy, yes baseball is a game of “regression to the mean,” but that doesn’t take place with all players. Why do Ibanez’ at-bats from his prime matter if he’s 38, has a history of hamstring and groin injuries, has been notably and unarguably worse since his last groin injury, has failed to make solid contact despite having okay at-bats (seeing more pitches,) and displaying the epitome of declining old-man skills (no power, bad fielding, plodding on the basepaths, trying to sharpen his eye to make up for other deficiencies) ?

Manny – Ibanez can keep himself in shape and hustle all he wants. Being in shape, hustling does not = being good. Again, not an attack on his character, an attack on his having a lower OPS than Jeff Keppinger, David Eckstein, Will Venable, Juan Uribe, etc.
Corey Seidman Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 10:22 am
(That was supposed to be an 8, as in the number 8 on that list, not a weird smily face with sunglasses.)
Corey Seidman Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 10:24 am
Also, to the many saying that “Ruben wouldn’t admit his mistake, etc,” I pretty much agree.

But I hearken back to this line from the article: “While consecutive years of dead money may be hard for a GM to explain to his superiors, it’s better than paying a player to hurt your team.”
Chuck Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 10:26 am
Zach L says that Ibanez is a “player that should never have been signed by the Phils in the first place”.

Except that the Phillies most likely don’t win the division or make the playoffs last year without him. So the signing was a good one.

It took the third year of the contract to sign him. Another team, the Angels, reportedly were offering him a similiar contract….and RAJ targeted his guy and signed him.

All of us can say it was a bad signing or that he shouldn’t have gotten the third year or whatever. At the end of the day, the GM has to make decisions based on what he feels is right at the time. So I don’t fault Ruben at all.

And it’s pointless to cry about what happened in the past. It’s over. So now what has to happen is to pick up the pieces and decide what to do with what the team has to work with.

Maybe Raul will get it together. Maybe he won’t. I agree that at some point something needs to be done if he doesn’t. Maybe not right now. But a month from now if he is still failing miserably and the Phillies have an opportunity to make a change somehow by the deadline….then maybe they should do it.

In the meantime, when Rollins returns it is DEFINITELY time for Dobbs to go. Keep Valdez. He’s a much better fielder and actually hasn’t really disappointed at the plate either if you figure that he’s really here for his glove and not his bat.
The SHART Factor Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 10:35 am
I think we should have an Ibanez bobble head day just before releasing him, except the bobble head could be Amaro’s head for such an outlandish contract for such an old player. Also, get Ibanez a new car on that day — one of those new Kia Souls — that way he could get the hell out of town faster. He could leave right from the ballpark.

Respectfully,

Bart Shart
Ginger Snapps Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 10:49 am
Let us not shed a tear for underperforming overpaid players. After all, it is the fan who lives or dies with each game. A consistently underperforming player like Ibanez simply saps our hopes and aspirations….sucking them down to nothing like a life saver in the mouth of Shaqille O’Neill.
It is time for change….not nickels and dimes, mind you. We need new blood in left field. Ibanez will leave Philadelphia a very rich man as he rides off to a retirement of luxury and becomes a marquee player on some serious slow-pitch softball team down south. He has one helluva great life in retirement ahead of him. What a great thing, being able to retire rich before age 40. Raul should get down on his knees and kiss the feet of Rubin Amaro, Jr. Frankly, a number of players in the future will likely be able to do the same for Ruben will make them very wealthy retirees.

Ginger Snapps
Ginger Snapps Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 10:53 am
…. and we passionate fans will continue to fund these early retirements with increased ticket and concession prices. Soon a ballpark frank will cost $20 and a coke $10. And the Ushers will frisk each attendee to make damn sure no food comes into the park. I long for the days of family picnics at the park —- gone forever.

Ginger Snapps
mnjam Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 10:55 am
Well reasoned post by Kennedy.

What does “stagnance” mean?
aviad Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 10:58 am
I completely disagree. I believe Ibanez will bounce back and have a good year. If having a slump means cutting a player, why didn’t the phillies cut Jamie Moyer last year? He’s been doing pretty damn good this year. I think Ibanez will be fine. But I do expect to see Dominic Brown start next year.
Releasing Raul Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 12:00 pm
[...] Corey Seidman of PhilliesNation.com has called for the release of Raul Ibanez. Sure, Raul is only hitting .230- and I should know because he is on my fantasy team. And though Seidman argues he is thinking about this reasonably, he isn’t. Ibanez had $17million left on his contract. OK, Seidman has a point that the guy is hurting the team by taking away money that could be used to for a productive outfielder while he is also taking up a valuable roster spot. That is double injury to the Phillies, who right now are clinging to the pre-seasons utterances that they were the best team in baseball. [...]
Dave Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 12:24 pm
Re: Brown’s lack of current power.
Currently, he has a .273 ISO in AA. Last year, Ryan Howard had an ISO of .292 and in 2008, when he came in second in the MVP race, it was also .292. Brown’s power seems to have at least partially manifested itself, although AA is not the major leagues and he will never be the masher Howard is.
Jeff of Nova Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 12:24 pm
Shoot they should just give him to Seattle and have them take his salary instead of saying thank you for giving them Cliff Lee for nothing!!

On a serious note, I agree 100% with this, something needs to be done
Phylan Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 12:25 pm
All of us can say it was a bad signing or that he shouldn’t have gotten the third year or whatever. At the end of the day, the GM has to make decisions based on what he feels is right at the time. So I don’t fault Ruben at all.

What on earth does this mean? You can say that a GM “felt it was right at the time” for literally every terrible contract ever handed out if that’s your standard. The point is that it wasn’t right, and a whole ton of people that weren’t Ruben Amaro knew it.
metsblow4show Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 12:30 pm
I still think Raul has something left in the tank and I’m not about to give up on him yet. That being said, if his struggles at the plate continue into July, I think you will see Charlie go to a straight platoon with Ben Francisco. I want to see Domonic Brown get at least a half season under his belt at Lehigh Valley( I think he will be promoted shortly ) before handing the leftfield job to him in 2011.
Ted Bell Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 12:32 pm
The transition from AA to the majors is not a big deal anymore, it’s done all the time. Minor league organizations are not setup the way they were 20 years ago. AAA is no longer considered a developmental level – it’s almost always used as an inventory level (where the Nelson Figueroas and Paul Hoovers of the world reside).

Brown has over 1600 professional plate appearances while other teams successfully promote kids with half that many. This fear of “ruining” the kid by “rushing” him is ridiculous. He may struggle at times, but he won’t be overmatched. He’ll be better than Ibanez.

For those saying Ibanez is on the verge of turning it around: we’ve been hearing that mantra for a full calendar year now. Let’s face reality, it was a high risk signing that didn’t pan out. A lot of people predicted this exact scenario. I doubt that RAJ is ready to admit his mistake though. The sad thing is that it’s easy to see the same thing happening with Polanco at some point during his three year deal. Signing old players to three year deals is a risky strategy.

I’m Ted Bell.
Don M Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 12:34 pm
“something needs to be done” ???

To what, shake up the team that is 5-games over .500 while dealing with all the injuries we’ve had???

Let the team keep playing. . Ibanez is our #7 hitter, when healthy… they wont want to start the clock on Brown for no reason either, since we’ll need him to be SUPER CHEAP when in two years we’re paying multiple guys $20+ million

…
Without Ibanez last year…we don’t make the playoffs.

It would be pretty ridiculous to cut him the following JUNE, coming off surgery after a GREAT previous year …
Chuck Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 12:42 pm
Phylan, what it means is that at the time that Raul was negotiating his contract there were other teams interested in him, most notably the Angels who were ready to sign him to a similiar deal. Three years, around $30M.

Ruben made a decision based on the info he had at the time and for any of us to dredge that up now is pointless. No one was argung about it last year when he was hot. But now that he’s struggling, everyone is ready to blame Amaro and say it was the most awful decision ever.

The fact remains that the Phils don’t make the postseason and return to the World Series last year without Raul Ibanez.
Phylan Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 12:49 pm
Ruben signed Raul very early in the free agent signing period (as he always seems to do), in a year in which the market had several younger, more productive corner outfield options who signed for less. And there weren’t any indications that he was going to get that ridiculous contract anywhere else, unless you can provide a citation.
Phylan Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 12:51 pm
And if signing a 37 year old corner outfielder to a 3 year pile of money is what it takes to stop some other aggressive team from signing him, then you just don’t sign him — it doesn’t suddenly make the contract a good idea.
Chuck Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 12:52 pm
It’s the same with Jamie Moyer. I wasn’t for the second year either. And last year I guess I was in agreement that the second year was a mistake.

But the fact remained that Moyer was on the team for this year….so it made more sense to get behind him and hope that he did well. and so far this year Jamie Moyer has EXCEEDED expectations. Thank God we have him!!
Chuck Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 12:55 pm
You sign him if he’s your targeted guy and you have it on good authority that he’s going somewhere else unless you offer him what he wants or close to it.

It’s obvious that Raul wanted to come here…but he wasn’t going to if the Angels offered three years and the Phillies offered two. That would have been stupid on his part.
frankenslade Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:09 pm
I’m getting worried about Raul, but as someone who referred to him as Jesus this time last year and considering his pedigree (to compare him to the likes of Kevin Sefcik is a joke), I wait until the All-Star break to see if he needs to be platooned or benched. Who’s to say this habitually streaky hitter doesn’t warm up in the coming month? Were J-Roll and Howard, in past years, hitting near the Mendoza line before turning it around? I can’t stand David Ortiz, but he looked washed up this time last year and ended up putting together numbers not too far off his career average. More on pedigree: recall that the Phils stuck with the underperforming Geoff Jenkins and Pat Burrell through 2008, only to see them contribute two of the biggest hits of the season in the final World Series game.

For younger fans experiencing your first taste difficult times following a world championship, I can’t argue with your June swoon anxiety and suffering. I’ve lived through the post-1983 years and the post-1993 years. I’m sticking with my guys. They’ve earned it. Of course, it goes without saying that Ibanez would be hitting .350 if Cliff Lee hadn’t been traded:P
Phylan Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:09 pm
If you can’t get your targeted guy without signing him to an albatross of a contract that is more than likely to hurt you, then you target someone else. You don’t say WELP HE’S MY TARGETED GUY AFTER ALL *inks to ridiculous contract*
Chuck Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:11 pm
Who else would you have targeted? Just askin’
Phylan Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:12 pm
Honestly, it’s time for this insipid Amaro apologism to stop. Why does Philadelphia credit him with success and talent that was assembled by the guys that came before him? Let’s see what he’s done:

* Dumped a pile of money and 5 years on a 30 year old power hitting first baseman who has inexplicably turned into David Eckstein this season, when he still had the rest of 2010 and 2011 remaining on his contract (and never explained the timing)

* Picked up the 2011 option on Jimmy Rollins without waiting to see how 2010 progressed, for no discernible reason whatsoever, and now Rollins is struggling with an injury that can often nag in the long term

*Gave Danys Baez 2 guaranteed years of money when literally no other team was trying to acquire his services beyond a minor league deal

*Aforementioned Ibanez fiasco

*Also gave Ross Gload, who is essentially a replacement-level bench bat (not to mention a left-handed 1st baseman who plays on a team where the starting left-handed 1st baseman never sits), 2 years of guaranteed money

*Traded away Cliff Lee to “restock the farm,” receiving in return the “centerpiece” that has an injury history and is being demoted after failing to strike out more batters than he walked in AA, a slap hitting CF who is now hitting abysmally after leaving the crazy offensive league he played in previously, and a 22 year old who is doing OK in high A ball, a level which he is repeating. Meanwhile the lack of starter depth has already reared its head for the Phillies.

Good things:

*D’Arnaud, Drabek, and Taylor for Halladay, which was a good trade (albeit tainted by the “farm restocking”), and Marson, Donald, Carrasco, and Jason Knapp for Lee, which was also a good trade.

He’s just not cut out to be GM. He doesn’t have the talent evaluation or the patience. In 3 years when the Howard contract looks as bad as most people know it is right now, maybe people will find this an easier notion to swallow.

I know people are all over his nuts because the Phillies went to the World Series again last year, but he did not construct this team. He’s deconstructing it.
Chuck Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:18 pm
Or….in three years Ryan Howard could be tearing up the league…..making the deal seem like a steal.
Phylan Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:23 pm
Yes and perhaps I will finally be elected Chairman of the Solar System and annex Saturn for my planet-sized fantasy baeball draft super-computer
Manny Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:25 pm
I gotta agree with all those points, Phylan…except the Ibanez “fiasco” (which I believe is NOT the case, at least not yet) and the Gload deal, who came in to replace Stairs and can play multiple positions.
Ed R. Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:26 pm
Well said Phylan, I pretty much agree with everything you said there.

Still not sold on the Polly deal either.

Also, when are people going to stop considering Ibanez’s year last year as great. It was “two great months, one horrible month and three average months”…followed by two awful months this season.
Dan S Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:27 pm
1. Everyone needs to stop bashing Ruben, the second the phils stop playing up to their potential, everyone starts blaming the general manager. Calm down, be rational. At first I did not agree with this idea but after reading this post I agree with the most part. It should not be made immediately. The Phillies should move Brown to AAA first and see how he adjusts, if his numbers stay in the same range, call him up. If they fall, Corey, your theory is just plain wrong. The Phillies should give Ibanez some time off and let him clear his mind. This would also get Francisco, even Dobbs some at bats. Everyone needs to stop freaking out, I don’t know what it is about Philadelphia fans, I am one and I’m proud of it, but it seems like whenever something doesn’t go their way they call for someone to get fired, or traded. So, releasing Raul is an option that should be considered but RAJ should not do it again, because if Raul goes somewhere else and plays well, you all will come on here and bash him for releasing Ibanez.

One more thing to add, when I was at the game on Saturday, there were very few RAUUUUUL chants
Manny Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:29 pm
Chuck, even if Howard tears up the league, he would not get much more than the 20 or 25 million he’ll be making in under the contract we gave him. Imagine he hits .300 with 48 bombs in 2011, do you think anyone would still be willing to give him more than what we already gave him? Maybe a marginal difference. But by giving him the contract NOW, we’re betting heavily on his performance and staying healthy.

What has happened to Jimmy is a great example… there was really no need to pick up his 2011 option before the 2010 season started. We didn’t have much to win by doing that, but a lot to lose –which is what *might* happen if that injury keeps bothering him.
Phylan Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:32 pm
Just for the record Dan S, I was bashing the GM well before the Phillies started hitting like the Eric Bruntlett Dream Team
Manny Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:32 pm
Ed R: Ibanez last year WAS GREAT. It’s as if you go to 2007 or 2008 and say Howard DIDN’T have great years because he had horrible months in April, May, or whatever other month.

Ibanez had a GREAT 2008. That’s a fact.
jacatt Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:33 pm
You guys deserve a lot of credit for blatantly looking for responses by throwing an extreme idea out.

Too bad you did not come up with a response for: start a platoon with Fransisco to take advantage of time to better analyze if Ibanez is done, struggling or can add any value down the road.

Response…
Manny Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:33 pm
I meant he had a GREAT 2009* (though his 2008 was pretty good too… and his 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004… )
Phylan Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:37 pm
Thanks Ed R. I elected to lay off the Polly deal for now since it’s the years, not the money I had a problem with. It’s looking like he’ll earn his keep for 2010, and I’ll admit I was wrong in thinking his glove would not hold up at 3B. At least for now. 2011 and 2012, that deal worries me.
Chuck Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:40 pm
If Howard hits .300 and has 48 bombs in 2011…then he’s worth AT LEAST $25 M in the open market.

Can we all just wait a few years before we judge this contract too harshly? And comparing him to David Eckstein??? Please!!
Chuck Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:42 pm
Manny….Ibanez DID have a great 2009. I agree completely. Because without his 2 great months, the Phillies DON’T make the playoffs. THAT’S a fact as well.
Phylan Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:43 pm
Chuck, I wasn’t comparing him to Eckstein, I just picked that name to illustrate what is so odd about his transformation so far this season. Here is one article among many about it: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/ryan-howards-odd-decline/

I’m fairly certain Bill Baer wrote one also but I can’t find it at the moment.
George Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:44 pm
One of those “more productive” corner outfielders was Milton Bradley, who the Cubs signed after they missed out on Raul. Abreu signed for less, but didn’t really perform any better in 2009 than Ibanez, and signed a BIG contract for this year. Pat Burrell was another “productive” guy the Phils had a chance on.

I also read that not only the Cubs and Angels had an interest in Ibanez, but the Mets did as well.

I agree with Chuck: you target a guy and do what it takes to sign him. If others are interested, it just shows that the guy must still have value. There’s only so much you can foresee as far as future performance. Age is not always the factor we as fans might think; Moyer, Julio Franco, Carlton Fisk, Phil Niekro, etc. etc. do or did all play pretty well past the usual athlete’s retirement age. In contrast, other guys have burned out while in their prime years.
Matt M Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:45 pm
I’m not defending the Ibanez signing, but I saw a comment that said there were better younger players available after the ‘08 season. Well looking at the list of FAs that year there really wasn’t a better option with the exception of Abreu and we all know he wasn’t coming back. But hey, maybe they would have been better with Milton Bradley, or Luis Gonzalez, or Moises Alou, or Garret Anderson, or Brian Giles, and Pat Burrell.

It wasn’t smart to give Ibanez three guaranteed years, but to say they shouldn’t have signed him in the first place is really stupid considering the other alternatives.
Pete Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:48 pm
This suggestion is an overreaction.

I imagine almost everyone would have released Jamie Moyer after last season as well. Now? Well he’s got more wins and a better WHIP than Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana and Dan Haren.

Ibanez has been a notoriously streaky hitter throughout his career. Chances are he will get on a hot streak this year, and will finish with respectable numbers, hopefully respectable enough to trade him.

If you take his horrendous 13-game start, he’s sporting a .764 OPS on the year. That’s not very good, but puts him in the same category as some other struggling players: Carlos Lee, Justin Upton and Hunter Pence. It’s slightly below average for an NL outfielder.

Would you have released Rollins last year after 70 games (.569 OPS on July 1st) or Howard after 47 games in 2008 (with a .686 OPS) or Blanton after 9 starts last year (6.14 ERA)? I could go on and on, but don’t have the time.

The fact of the matter is baseball is a game of streaks, and if you just released people after every cold streak, you end up looking like an idiot most of the time.

What the Phillies need to do is see if Ibanez can work it out and start hitting better. If he doesn’t, you wait until much later to make a move (say bringing Brown up) and move Ibanez to the bench, where he could replace the even worse Greg Dobbs. If he plays well, you try to trade him in the off-season for anyone who will give you something for him.

Releasing him now would be a very foolish, sell-low move that would have little positive impact on the franchise.
John Quinn Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:53 pm
The bobble head suggestion is a nasty idea. Perhaps PN might consider replacing the Phillies bum of the game Steve Jeltz award graphic with a disparaging bobble head caricature of the player being dishonored. It would give the condemnation more impact.

Given the big bucks involved, the Ibanez issue has no easy immediate solution unless he starts producing again with his young-man stats.
Chuck Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:55 pm
Right. How many of us really relished the prospect of Milton Bradley or Bobby Abreu? There was a drumbeat of support for re-signing Burrell, the Phillies didn’t….and it turned out to be a good decision.

——-

Phylan, what transformation? So far, Howard’s #’s are .286 BA, 9 HR, 40 RBI. He hasn’t even really gotten hot yet. I would imagine that he will be somewhere around .275-.285 with 40 HR and 130-140 RBI at the end of the season.
teejvee Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 1:57 pm
The Phillies have 3 key , middle of the order hitters who are getting consistenlty blown away by 91 mph fastballs. I’m talking belt high, cut-the -middle -of-the-plate pitches . They are Utley , Werth, and ibanez.

I’m pretty sure Werth is gone by the trade deadline.
To be replaced, I guess, by Francisco.

I also see them doing what the author says with Ibanez-releasing him.
To be replaced by Brown.
That leaves Utley. If Rollisg ever comes back, it would be possible to move him to the 3 hole. Maybe stick Utley up at 2 where his lack of power won’t hurt you . Polanco to #5 to protect Howard.

All this is based on the fact that they will in 4th place, 6-7 games out, very soon which is now not just ‘possible’ but ‘likely’.

If they start winning , delete the above.
Bruce Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 2:00 pm
I agreed with Vote Pat the Bat’s comment regarding Raul’s problem with injuries for the second half of last season. Plus his off season surgery for the “Sports Hernia” does require a lengthy period of recovery time and may have interrupted his preparation (including spring training) to be ready for the season. I noticed not one word from Corey on Raul’s injuries as a contributing factor in his column. And then respond with a comment..”..It all started with an injury, but that doesn’t make it any less real. If anything, it gives it more reason to believe he WON’T get better.” Huh? Why? 55 games into the season and you want Raul banished? Forget your obsession with stats and allow Ibanez the necessary time to get his timing down. The second half of the season will provide a more accurate picture of where Ibanez is at.
Phylan Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 2:12 pm
I guess you didn’t read the link I posted Chuck. Anyhow, teejvee talking about Chase Utley’s “lack of power” just sort of broke my brain so I’m going to take a break for a while.
Chuck Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 2:19 pm
Forget teejvee. I’ll read the link now, Phylan. thanks.
Scotch Man Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 2:19 pm
I will say though, any time someone on Phillies Nation starts with the “cut Moyer” “cut Ibanez” talk, the shamed player of the day, ends up performing well.
bflaff Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 2:20 pm
Yuck. Do we really want Rube running the team on some kind of ‘You slump and yer outta here’ hair trigger? This kind of short term thinking is counterproductive. Everyone goes through slumps, and when an older guy slumps (see Moyer, Jamie) it’s not necessarily a sign that he’s done. If we let the mob run the show based on whoever was sucking at the moment, we’d have traded away or cut guys who are back contributing a lot this year, or destroyed the confidence of some of those who were left.

Have Ibanez’s skills disappeared? Why don’t we check?

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=607&position=OF

Raul’s walk rate for the season would be a career high if it stayed at this level through the end of the season, and his strikeout rate is down. Do we want Raul taking so many walks? Probably not, since you’d like to see him driving in runs instead of leaving it up to the likes of Wilson Valdez, but at least he’s not losing his plate discipline.

The biggest drop off is one you don’t need the stats to see: his power hasn’t shown up this year. His ISO is almost exactly half of what it was last year, and his current slugging % is a Valdez-esque .371. Or to put it in really stark terms, his flyball rate for 2010 is nearly exactly the same as 2009. However, his rate of homeruns per flyball is down from 21.1% in 2009 (by far a career high – his previous best was 16.5% in 2006) to a miserable 5% in 2010.

His swing % is down a bit, making him a bit more passive at the plate, which correlates a bit with all the walking, but his contact rate is a tick above career norms.

Does this add up to a definitive answer? Not yet. If Raul gets his power swing back, the other skills are still there. Cutting him, or platooning him, or whatever ‘But I’m frustrated right now!’ decision you want to make should hinge on whether or not he can still reach the seats. Charlie knows hitting better than us, so if he thought Raul’s power was gone, then they’d move on. But give them time to get it right. The season’s not even to the All-Star break, and Raul earned whatever patience the Phils show here. It’s good for the team, and better in the long run to show these guys some faith.

So no, let’s not bat Utley 8th, sit Howard against lefties, or whatever jerk around the team solutions of the moment would be emotionally satisfying to the fans.
teejvee Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 2:25 pm
Chase Utley hasn’t had a lack of power in the last month?

Is he playing in some slow pitch league during the day where he is getting extra base hits?

Cuz on this team, he ain’t getting any and it’s been going on for a long time.
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June 7th, 2010 at 2:29 pm
[...] Time to Release Raul | Phillies Nation [...]
psujoe Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 2:39 pm
Too early to just dump Raul. I do agree he’s killing the Phils though. Start with a platoon with Ben Fran. The Phils have 9 games this month with the DH so see if Raul can get his stroke back while not playing in LF.

If Raul can’t snap out of it by the end of June then I’d seriously look at options. Seattle is an option, just depends on how much the Phils would have to eat to give him away
Phylan Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 2:54 pm
If you’re going to make dumbass lineup shakeups on a month’s worth of data you might also want to sign Willie Mays for the 5th spot for “protection” since Howard’s slugging percentage in the last month is .415. Utley hasn’t SLG’d under .500 since 2004 and he won’t be under that mark this year either (even in this slump he’s only 15 points under it).
Chuck Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 2:59 pm
Phylan, I looked at the link. I’m really not a SABR guy….more traditional like avg, hrs, rbis. You know stuff on the backs of baseball cards. Seems to work for most of us. Anyway, I think the numbers I suggested make sense for Howard when the season’s all said and done….. .275-.285 / 40 / 130-140. He hasn’t even gotten hot yet.
Ryan H. Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 3:03 pm
Raul is a notorious slow starter. he’s started off worse than this before and finished up the season with decent numbers. last years was the only time where he had good numbers in the beginning of the year. he’s a second half player for his whole career and he will be this year too. I guarantee he’s going to hit the cover off the ball for stretches this year.
Phylan Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 3:04 pm
Well we won’t really come to a consensus because the stuff on the back of a baseball card was invented in the late 180s by a cricket reporter and isn’t built from the ground up to properly capture a player’s value in relation to run production, unlike the numbers we have available to us now. And if Howard keeps hitting like the weird singles hitter he’s turned in to for the moment, he won’t even touch the baseball card figures you’re suggesting.
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June 7th, 2010 at 3:12 pm
[...] Time to Release Raul | Phillies Nation [...]
Phylan Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 3:13 pm
“Late 1800s” is what I meant, obviously. Not sure how that got cut off.
Chuck Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 3:18 pm
Phylan, he’s currently at .286 with 40 RBI at the 1/3 mark. His HRs are down but once he heats up so will that total. Not sure what you are looking at.??
teejvee Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 3:33 pm
“Utley hasn’t SLG’d under .500 since 2004 and he won’t be under that mark this year either (even in this slump he’s only 15 points under it).”

I’m betting big money he will be.

Let’s see.

Long, unprecedented slump which shows NO signs of being over+ usual post labor day swoon= career worst year.

Heey , he might pull of it today and he might not do his usual September slump, but that’s not how I’d bet.
The Second John Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 3:42 pm
Raul is getting a bit unlucky right now. His BABIP is down at .250, and his LD% is still within his career norms. I wouldn’t do anything about him yet.
Phylan Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 3:45 pm
He’s on pace for 26 home runs and 117 RBI. If you think he’s going to heat up, that’s fine, but the numbers, at least at the moment, suggest his approach has changed to favor contact hitting, which is concerning.

teejvee — There’s no reason to assume he will have a “post labor day swoon” just because he’s done it the last two years. And his slump is not “unprecedented.”
Maverick Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 4:14 pm
Look at the bright side…. he’s still better than Pat Burrell who is batting .205 with 2 Hrs this season.
teejvee Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 4:16 pm
Not unprecedented? Really ? When is the last time his average has been this low on June 7th?

You are right , he might not go into a slump after labor day. Then again , he might not hit at all for the rest of the year.

If you are going to use past history , you have to be consistent.
Phylan Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 4:23 pm
How about I use past history and the knowledge of what stats stabilize at what sample sizes and tell you he’ll finish around .290/.390/.510 like he always does. Or worry about things other than the guy who has consistently been the most valuable player on the team for the last few years, such as our godawful bullpen assembled by Ruben “what is a minor league deal” Amaro, our $25 million dollar man that can be neutralized by Dennys Reyes or a half-decent curveball, or the nagging calf injury for the starting shortstop that seems to lengthen in recovery time by the day and that keeps Juan Castro and Wilson Valdez out on the field.

Yes, I will do that instead.
Phylan Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 4:27 pm
By the way, Utley has a higher BB/K than he has ever had in his career (more walks than strikeouts currently), and .269 BABIP compared to his .314 career mark. His SLG is down due to less batted balls falling in for hits, but his Isolated Power is only 8 points below his career figure right now.

When all the signs point to a rebound, I feel entirely confident in saying he will do so, yes.
Chuck Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 4:44 pm
I think Howard will heat up….HE ALWAYS DOES…..and will have 35-40 HRs and 130-140 RBIs at the end of the season.

“Godawful bullpen.” ?????

The highest ERA on the present staff is 4.35 with Bastardo, 4.14 for Baez. All others are UNDER 4, one is under 3 (Durbin) and three guys are under 2.

How is that “Godawful”??
Phylan Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 4:57 pm
Howard will have 35-40 HRs and 130-140 RBI at the end of the season

Howard will have 35-40 HRs and 130-140 RBI at the end of the season

Howard will have 35-40 HRs and 130-140 RBI at the end of the season

Howard will have 35-40 HRs and 130-140 RBI at the end of the season

there if I keep saying it, it will be true, and the contract will be justified yayyyy
Phylan Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 4:59 pm
And anyhow I’ll cop to my bullpen perceptions being inflated by the fact that Danys Baez inexplicably has a major league roster spot and 2 YEARS guaranteed money. But this bullpen will only be sustainable if you think J.C. Romero’s ERA will stay where it is while he walks 7 batters per 9 IP, and that Brad Lidge’s magical exploding elbow will miraculously hold up for the rest of the season, or that his .156 BABIP and 100% LOB will hold up, etc. etc.
BurrGundy Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 5:01 pm
I cannot disagree with releasing Ibanez, except a soothsayer told me the other day that he (Ibanez) is about to break out of his slump big time in the next week or two and actually carry this team for a while offensively. He’s done it in the past and he does have 66% of the year left. Let’s keep our toes and fingers crossed and throw some salt over our shoulders. If he hits, he will add bigtime to this offense, especially with Utley and Rollings hurting.
BurrGundy Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 5:03 pm
Just back from vacation. Too bad the Phils are slumping. Maybe my return home will turn things around. The food in Ireland really sucks swampwater. But the beer and cakes are to die for. That’s why we Irish have rotten teeth.
BurrGundy Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 5:04 pm
….as well as very loose bowels at times.
Chuck Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 5:08 pm
Whatever, Phylan. I guess we’ll just have to disagree for now on these points….and see how it all plays out.

But the fact that the Phils have had their closer out TWICE this season, their #4 on the DL, their #3 was on the DL to start the year, their set-up guy out for a long time, their leadoff hitter on the DL TWICE, their 3B missing some time, and their 3-4-5 hitters having been in a prolonged slump…….and they are ONLY 2 games out……I think speaks volumes about this team.

But let’s see how it all plays out. It’s only 1/3 of the way through the season. there is a long way to go.
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June 7th, 2010 at 5:15 pm
[...] Speaking of which, here’s a novel concept. [...]
Phylan Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 6:14 pm
I think the team is good enough to get through it, yes. I still think they will win the East. I was never really worried about the Phils in 2010. It’s 2012 and beyond . . .
Corey Seidman Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 6:29 pm
There are a ton of comments on this article in which people have cherry-picked meaningless numbers and used the line “But Raul was fantastic last year.”

I’m not gonna respond to those inane comments for the ninth time, I’d rather just refer you back to the article and caution you against thinking April and May of 2009 has anything to do with the calendar year since in which Ibanez has been awful offensively and defensively.

If he’s a middle infielder with a good glove, MAYBE those putrid offensive numbers are passable. But he’s not. He’s a player at a position in which you SEEK offense, and he’s not doing that.
Ryan H. Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 6:35 pm
you sabermetrics geeks need to get a life. watch baseball and use the eye test . all of these obscure stats are complete nonsense
BurrGundy Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 6:39 pm
Ibanez go 2 to 4 tonight with a home run…….You read it here first.
BurrGundy Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 6:40 pm
Jet lag…..I meant 2 “for”4 with a homer and a walk.
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June 7th, 2010 at 7:04 pm
[...] Time to Release Raul | Phillies Nation [...]
Paul Boye Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 7:13 pm
Thanks for contributing such insight to an otherwise constructive discussion, Ryan H.

Corey, applause for your piece, here. It’s all about kicking off some discussion and this has done exactly that.

And Phylan is basically spot on with all his points in regard to Amaro and Ibanez. Don’t let two months trick you. There isn’t much to suggest Raul is going to magically regenrate at 38. When you get to these ages as a baseball player, one full year of aging has greater effects.
Kennedy Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 7:47 pm
Corey-

1. When analyzing a player, there is no better comparison than his performance in previous seasons. For example, in 2007 Ibanez had a .645 OPS in April, a .787 OPS in May, a so-so .870 June, a horrendous .503 July. Then he got hot. In August his OPS was 1.129 and in September .983. He came back from numbers virtually identical to what he has now (a .750 pre-all Star line), then hit .912 post-all Star. He finished the season with a perfectly acceptable .831 line. He’s streaky, it’s in his history. It’s ridiculous to judge him by the last 6 months (and they haven’t even all been terrible months).

And yes, he is under team control. The money they gave him is a sunk cost. Obviously if baseball contracts weren’t guaranteed he’d be released. However, you need to understand that baseball contracts are guaranteed. Even if they release him and he resigns somewhere else, the Phillies have only saved about $700,000.00 over the next two years. That’s what we pay Mike Zagurski. Peanuts.

2. Dom Brown strikes out too much to carry his OBP to the majors, and he doesn’t hit for enough power to support those numbers. Brown has had strikeout issues every season, which is fine because he is 22. There is a reason strikeouts in the minors are a good indicator, MLB pitchers get waay waay more K’s. Like I said, Strasburg was incredibly dominant in the Eastern League, and if he were on the Phillies he’d likely be our third starter at best.

3 and 4. The Ortiz point stands. When a player has a proven track record, and they slump for a few months, you don’t release them, unless you have a star to step into the gap. Dom Brown has never played above AA, where Ibanez would probably hit for a godly line, even while slumping. Ortiz looked like he was done for months. Real sports reporters wrote articles about it. He’s made them all look like idiots (presumably without the roids that made him so dominant in the first place).

5. Ibanez was playing injured last year, and despite that put together a good September. He had one bad month, August. Using his AVG alone it looks bad, but AVG is almost as useless as RBIs. His May this year was perfectly acceptable. So in the past year, he has had two really bad months, August 2009 and April 2010. His power is down admittedly, but that has the potential to change in a flash. He could hit three homeruns next week. You do not have a track record of consistent failure in the last year, just some bad cold streaks.

6. It also means he could be slowly healing.

7 and 8. If you honestly think that Dom Brown is a better option at the MLB level than Ibanez, you need your head examined. Brown is probably two years out, one if his power starts escalating. Saying Ibanez’s ability to take a walk is an “Old Man skill” doesn’t make it any less valuable.

Just keep in mind Corey, AVG is a poor metric. The ability to take a walk is the mark of a true pro. You can only strike out once every two plate appearances if you can hit for 50 HRs. Brown can’t. Francisco has been worse than Ibanez this year. Gload last played a full season in 2008, when he turned in a .665 OPS and has been worse than Ibanez this year. Dobbs has been worse than any of them.

If I had to release Ibanez, I’d start Francisco. But a good Francisco year is an average Ibanez year, and Francisco is not having a good year. I’d platoon them now. But Ibanez is the most talented player available to play LF, and that is a fact.

If I were Ruben, I would probably just release Dobbs, maybe trade him if I could find someone willing to pay $400 K of his salary and offer a fringe prospect. I would not release the best option that this team has for LF. That’s dumb.
Corey Seidman Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 8:26 pm
How often do you visit PN, Kennedy? If you’ve read anything I’ve ever written, you know where I stand on stats like batting average and RBI. You really don’t need to give me a lecture about why OBP > BA…

Like, really? You really read this and came away thinking I killed Ibanez because of his BATTING AVERAGE?! And not his overall slash-line, or his -0.2 WAR, or his pitiful UZR, or his OPS+, or the combination of all of these things?

Also, nowhere in this article did I say that releasing Ibanez relieves the Phillies of cost…

Quote from article:

“Cut ties with an expensive underperfomer. Amaro did so twice last year, when he released Geoff Jenkins and Adam Eaton. The Phils cut Jenkins while paying his $6.75M salary in ‘09, plus an additional $1.25M club buyout for 2010. Eaton, too, earned a hefty chunk of change upon his release – $9.15M to be exact. All told, the Phils paid $17.15M for the right to rid themselves of two underperformers with bad contracts.

Ibanez is in the second year of a three-year, $31.5M deal of which he has already collected about fourteen million dollars. Subtract 14 million from 31.5 million and what do you get? 17.5 million, or just about exactly the amount of dead money the Phillies gave out to Jenkins and Eaton last year.

Financially, releasing Ibanez is no worse than releasing those two, and while consecutive years of dead money may be hard for a GM to explain to his superiors, it’s better than paying a player to hurt your team.”

Do those seem like the words of someone who doesn’t understand how contracts in baseball work? I was pointing out to you that “being under team control” is different than “being under contract for $17.5M more dollars between now and the end of next season.”

Ben Francisco is under “team control.” Antonio Bastardo and Scott Mathieson are under “team control.” Raul Ibanez isn’t. He’s under “shitty contract.”

Honestly, that final point was just battling semantics.

The point I’m trying to hammer in though, is that the “regression to the mean” that you think Ibanez is destined for is unlike that of other players, because all players are different; they’re not all 38-year-olds with a history of hamstring and groin injuries that can no longer catch up to fastballs and are relying strictly on old-man skills and plate discipline to salvage what was once a solid major league career.

I hate when I see people make blanket assumptions strictly based on low BABIP or high BABIP and fail to analyze the individual player. If you think Ibanez will “regress to his true talent level,” you’re mistaking yourself. He’s at the age in which things get worse everyday, not better.
Ted Bell Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 9:26 pm
The original posting by Mr. Seidman makes a lot of sense…I’m really surprised at how many people still believe that Raul will turn things around despite what they’re seeing on the field (for a full year now). It sort of reminds me of Dale Murphy’s tenure as a Phillie. People would always say he was one adjustment away from being the MVP Dale Murphy of their memories. Players get old, and it’s not pleasant to watch. Historical numbers mean less and less as a player ages – Mother Nature always wins in the end.

I’m Ted Bell.
Kennedy Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 9:33 pm
So who do you think the Phillies should start in LF? Brown?

Ibanez is slumping right now, but he put together a very good season last year, and I think we both know he’s much more likely to hit for a .800 OPS than Greg Dobbs or Ross Gload.

They released Jenkins because he sucked for the entire season of 2008 (and had also been mediocre for Milwaukee in 2007 and 2006). There was no sense in bringing him back for 2009 because we had a starter to play his position (Werth), and we had two backup players (Stairs and Dobbs) who were able to play his position at a slightly higher level. Dobbs had just had a great 2008, and Stairs had a much better three year track record (despite being older than Jenkins by a decade).

Eaton was unable to make any contribution at the Major League level. When a pitcher is done, they are done. Hitters are evaluated differently.

I agree that we need to keep Valdez since our system is so short on guys who can play the middle IF. That means that one of Ibanez, Dobbs, Gload, and Francisco need to go. The obvious choice there is Dobbs. Releasing Ibanez makes absolutely zero sense beyond being the “panic button” move. And your solution, bringing up Brown, causes two problems. 1: Brown is not ready and 2: We still need to free a roster spot somewhere.

So excuse me if I think releasing Ibanez is a terrible, terrible idea.
Corey Seidman Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 10:10 pm
You’re excused. You’re also literally the only person I’ve come into contact with that thinks Domonic Brown is not ready.

And you are basing it on ONE stat. If you feel that none of his Eastern League leading numbers matter, but that his 41 strikeouts in 205 plate appearances, well…no comment.

His Double-A line translates to a .261/.318/.465 major league slash-line.

But I’m just repeating myself now, because I’ve given reason after reason after reason and you just keep coming back to “Dom Brown isn’t ready. If he comes up he’ll hit .077/.105/.000. But Ibanez, he’ll magically go back to being a 32 year-old because he can’t possibly keep this up.”

You don’t have to agree. Can’t go 126-for-126. But don’t call it a panic button move. It’s far, far from that. Unless I’m in a bad dream where “panic” means “common” and “button” means “sense.”
Corey Seidman Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 10:13 pm
And to reiterate one final time, the Eastern League ERA coming into tonight was 4.06. It is, year-in and year-out, a league filled with good pitching. It can be said that is more of a test for hitters than Triple-A.

Dom Brown doesn’t need to move up to AAA and prove he can hit Josh Fogg and Jimmy Gobble.
Rakim Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 10:32 pm
Raul should be taken out back and put down. I like him enough to make it quick and painless.
Kennedy Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 10:38 pm
If you can hit a really good fastball, you can hit in the Eastern League. What Brown’s K’s say to me is that he’s getting fooled by the guys who have more than one plus pitch. Half the guys in MLB do. I want to see him hit before I release Ibanez (and even if I thought Brown was ready to start, which he isn’t, I’d still release Dobbs).

And I’m not just basing my opinion just on the strikeouts this year, he struck out a lot last year to.

Maybe you should base your opinion on something more than just the 179 ABs Brown has had this year (the hottest 179 ABs of his short career). That’s not enough to project anything from.
Bruce Says:
June 7th, 2010 at 11:31 pm
A note to the stat heads: Didn’t Raul played hurt last season (2nd half)? And his off season surgery (sports hernia) interrupted his preparation (including spring training) for this season. It’s funny how the injury factor got lost in posting those stats. Personally, 56 games into the season does not provide a fair evaluation of Ibanez’s effort to find his timing. That’s why Charlie Manuel has stated he will continue to play Ibanez and let him “swing out of his slump”.
Corey Seidman Says:
June 8th, 2010 at 12:15 am
Bruce – I don’t understand why people continue to cite his injury as an excuse. If anything, it speaks more to the fact that things WON’T get better…he’s a deteriorating 38-year-old who has had a full year to recover and hasn’t. And again, he has a history of hamstring and groin problems.
Phylan Says:
June 8th, 2010 at 12:22 am
Yeah, as someone who disagreed with the end conclusion, the content of the article is pretty definitive and all of you waiting for an Ibanez resurgence will be left wanting.
MikeB. Says:
June 8th, 2010 at 2:27 am
Ibanez’s performance in Monday’s game further validates Corey’s post.
jeremy Says:
June 8th, 2010 at 3:02 am
Why do people keep saying “move brown to AAA”?? First- Double A is where the talent is, AAA is as someone mentioned basically reserves, and in many cases people that just will never make it, or players that did but couldn’t hack it. Second and most importantly Dom Brown is also playing not only in AA but also the Eastern League. Which is a pitchers league the league ERA is what? 4 something? I go to R-phils games and Iron Pig games all the time. In my oppinion the games I go to and see the best talent on the field (guys that are rising vs. Guys that are falling) occurs in a park that sells pepsi products and not Coke.
Ted Bell Says:
June 8th, 2010 at 7:31 am
Exactly. AAA is just an inventory level, AA is a developmental level.

I can go back to Ike Davis as an example:
769 minor league plate appearances (1633 for Brown)
1 strikeout per 4.2 ABs (1 strikeout per 5.1 ABs for Brown)
42 AAA plate appearances (0 for Brown)

Brown has always been ranked as a better prospect than Davis.

Brown has more than twice the number of minor league plate appearances than Davis.

Brown has struck out at a lower rate than Davis in the minors.

Ike Davis is not being embarrassed at the major league level, as some are suggesting Brown will be. He’s not tearing up the league, but he’s adequately filled the black hole the Mets had at 1B. All Brown needs to do is fill the black hole the Phillies have in LF.
Tom Goodman Says:
June 8th, 2010 at 9:04 am
“Can we talk about baseball, though? And not ponies and unicorns riding in fields of daisies?”

One of the best lines ever written.
Cole Says:
June 8th, 2010 at 3:15 pm
A return to the mean is expected. And I say when he does, milk it for what it’s worth, eat $7-10M of his remaining contract, and find some sucker willing to take him.
Cole Says:
June 8th, 2010 at 3:18 pm
While we’re at it, doesn’t it make more sense to promote John Mayberry Jr. since he is currently knocking the cover off the ball at Lehigh Valley?
Grover Cleveland Alexander Says:
June 8th, 2010 at 3:55 pm
I found a follow up article to this one that says the Phillies should move Ibanez to the bench and make a statement by releasing Dobbs. It made sense to me!

http://www.phightinphils.com/2010/06/it-is-time-for-the-phillies-to-shake-things-up-release-greg-dobbs-today.html
MikeB. Says:
June 8th, 2010 at 5:39 pm
Well, you know how it is Corey, many people do not like to change as they have a fear of the unknown, are comfortable with the status quo and then they wind up suffering the consequences in some situations. Let us hope that if the Phils do not make a change in regards to Ibanez that he will find himself and become a helping cog in their drive to another pennant and possible World Championship.
Pete Says:
June 8th, 2010 at 9:39 pm
Mike B-

So I guess his performance tonight makes this post stupid huh? Nothing like a 1-game sample size to make a point.

Corey-

Do you have any examples of a MLB team releasing a player making Raul’s level of money with 1 1/2 years left on the deal?
Pete Says:
June 8th, 2010 at 9:46 pm
The Milton Bradley / Carlos Silva trade should be reason #1A why this is a flat out stupid suggestion. Bradley was FAR worse last year than Raul is this year, both on and off the field.

Yet, with TWO years left on his deal, the Cubs were able to trade him for Carlos Silva, who is 8-0 for them this year. Of course they didn’t expect Silva to be that good, but the point is – you don’t just release players with this type of contract for nothing. You trade him, you put him on the bench to try to get him going. But you don’t release him.

I can only think of one instance where a player making a significant amount of money was released with at least 1 1/2 years left on his deal (Russ Ortiz in 2006) and that player was sporting a historically bad 7.00 ERA. There is a reason for this. There is still a chance to get something back on this investment.
Pete Says:
June 8th, 2010 at 10:00 pm
One final point. Yet another example of why this would be an overreaction.

A similar situation occurred last year in Boston.

David Ortiz, with 1 1/2 left on his 4 year, $52 million contract was sporting a .661 OPS on June 20th. The Red Sox expectations are to win the World Series and Ortiz was holding them back. Many people thought he was “done” for good. Some even thought they should release him and cut their losses because he was just dead weight.

For the rest of the season, Ortiz had a .895 OPS and was among the AL Leaders in HR (23) and RBI (71) for the remainder of the season.

This year, after again being questioned after a slow start, he’s got a .879 OPS with 12 HR and 34 RBI.

Who knows if Ibanez can have this sort of turnaround – but people shouldn’t act like they KNOW.
Pete Says:
June 8th, 2010 at 10:05 pm
By the way – my suggestion would be to platoon Ibanez with Francisco. Release Dobbs, who is in the final year of a small contract and promote John Mayberry, who has been hitting well enough in AAA to deserve some ABs up here.
Corey Seidman Says:
June 9th, 2010 at 1:29 pm
Pete –

1) I’ve already addressed the Ibanez/Ortiz comparison. It doesn’t work. They’re two completely different players, and the only common thread is that they both struggled at some point in the last year.

Ortiz is 34, Ibanez iz 38. In the last six years, Ibanez has had three hamstring injuries, a groin injury, and a back injury. All Ortiz has had was a wrist injury in 2008.

It’s an unfair comparison because literally, the only commonality between Ibanez and Ortiz is that at one time or another, both were publicly criticized for struggling.

Ortiz’ struggles lasted for several months one season and a month the next…Ibanez’ have lasted for over one calendar year (since last June), and the fact that he is four years older than Ortiz with a much more extensive injury history rids the comparison of any significance.

2) The Bradley-Silva deal was unprecedented in that it was a swap of Junk-for-Junk. So far, it has worked out for the Cubs. Nobody expected it to, but it did.

Very few trades like that have ever occurred and very few will ever occur again. It just so happened that there were two teams with high paid underperformers (one a cancer) that were able to relieve themselves of one by trading for the other.

And finally, Pete, Ibanez has a no-trade clause, making most of this moot.
Oppo Boppo Sucks Says:
June 9th, 2010 at 3:07 pm
Spot on article Corey, although I don’t see it happening. Someone pointed it as did Corey, Ibanez is hurting the team. Why not bring Brown up and platoon him with Francisco to “ease” him since everyone is scared of “ruining him.” That has got to be a better solution then letting Ibanez continue to be a “black hole.” I don’t need to reiterate the Corey’s responses to the arguments, but he’s 38 so the “he was injured” argument kinda loses its relevance considering it sounds like your making Corey’s point for him.

This article = ratings.

Keep up the good work Corey.
Pete Says:
June 9th, 2010 at 4:54 pm
Corey,

1) If you are going to limit a comparison to “guys that are 38″ then I’ll guess I’ll do that. I’m only going to go back a couple years, because I simply don’t have time to do more.

Ken Griffey Jr, 38, 2008.

.703 OPS on May 30th
.821 OPS remainder of season

Jim Thome, 37, 2008

.735 OPS on May 25th
.920 OPS remainder of season

Frank Thomas, 39, 2007

.704 OPS on May 23rd
.911 OPS remainder of season

Obviously this means it about time for Raul to pick it up – but it certainly shows that many old players take a bit to get going. Raul has shown some signs of it (an .808 OPS in May) before struggling again in June.

2) Strange that you would use the “it’s unprecedented” argument when the very suggestion of this article is unprecedented itself.

You don’t run a business by throwing $15 million out the window, especially when there are precedents for…

- players of his age and injury history turning it on the 2nd half of seasons

and

- getting some return from a trade (unless Raul has said he will block any trade, I’m not sure why you would assume it)

If he still sucks in August/September, that’s another story, and perhaps you release him after the season like we did with Adam Eaton. But it’s simply too soon to make a decision like this. Like I said, there is a reason this has never happened with a position player before in the history of the game, unless you can find an example I haven’t been able to find.
Gavin Says:
June 12th, 2010 at 11:56 am
It was a deal that never made sense. Ruben has really messed up here because Werth is likely going to leave at the end of the year and what could’ve happened is Brown replaced him. However with Ibanez’s lack of production, we now need a 2nd outfielder.
Ryan Shiffler Says:
June 12th, 2010 at 12:41 pm
ok. we are all typical Philly fans here…. our team is in a slump and we find someone to bash it on. It’s not Ibby’s fault. Look at our lineup and how well they are producing. Look at the pitching and how bad they are doing. We still cant win with the best pitcher in the majors on the mound. thats pathetic! Dont bash ibanez. Bash they whole team cause they really aren’t playing baseball at all! is Werth still playing? or is he really doing that bad that noone talks about him anymore?
JEKoz Says:
June 14th, 2010 at 1:04 am
In May 2008 in Seattle, Ibanez hit .182. At the start of June, he was struggling mightily, batting a meager .256, with an atrocious on-base percentage of .322.
That year, he finished hitting .293 and knocked in 110 runs along the way.
Bob Says:
June 15th, 2010 at 8:48 pm
This has got to be dealt with.

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