Phillies Nation

Internal Discussions

Posted by Michael Baumann, Wed, March 17, 2010 03:22 PM

I play sports video games a lot. Malcolm Gladwell wrote in Outliers that it takes 10,000 hours of practice to become truly great at something, and I think I’m there with EA’s FIFA series. But what I like more than the gameplay itself is managing the team and making roster moves.

With all this Ryan Howard-to-the-Cardinals-for-Albert Pujols nonsense going on this week, I think it’d be fun to ask for some submissions from the audience on the following: Let’s say you suddenly become empowered with the ability to possess (like a demon) another human being’s body, and you now control Ruben Amaro, Jr.’s consciousness. I wouldn’t stay long because he’s a pescatarian and I’d need to stop out for a burger, but you get the idea. What trades do you pull off? Here are some ground rules:

1) It has to be something that would actually be accepted by the other team. Much as I’d like to trade Kyle Kendrick and Juan Castro to the Nationals for Ryan Zimmerman and Stephen Strasburg, the Nats wouldn’t accept that trade.

2) It has to keep the Phillies competitive in 2010 without completely blowing up the future, and vice-versa.

3) Salary matters. You can get a big contract, but you have to dump some salary in return or get someone who would sell enough jerseys to pay for an eight-figure salary.

4) No one’s untouchable. Now’s the time to indulge those Utley-for-David Wright fantasies you’ve always had.

5) And before some smartass thinks this up, no undoing the Cliff Lee trade.

My suggestions, if you care, are after the jump.

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Total WAR Project VIII: New York Yankees

Posted by Michael Baumann, Thu, March 11, 2010 12:00 PM

The Total WAR Project is a series of posts that analyzes the closest competition facing the Phillies in 2010. The posts use Wins Above Replacement, a metric designed to use offensive and defensive production within a single stat.

So we’ve covered the six NL teams (Braves, the Mets, the Rockies, the Cardinals, the Dodgers, the Brewers), plus the Mariners. I honestly think that these Yankees are the team to be worried about. It goes against the pessimist in me, but short of Chase Utley and Roy Halladay engaging in and acting on a suicide pact over the All-Star break, I can’t see any way this team doesn’t get back to the Fall Classic.

They were the best team in baseball by a huge distance last year, and they got even better this offseason. They go legitimately 4-deep in the rotation, they have the best lineup in baseball, and they’re in the process of rotating older talent out of the lineup and inserting younger talent, but more on that later. In short, the best team in baseball continues to get better. More on this after the jump.

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The Total WAR Project, Part VII: Seattle Mariners

Posted by Michael Baumann, Wed, March 10, 2010 12:00 PM

The Total WAR Project is a series of posts that analyzes the closest competition facing the Phillies in 2010. The posts use Wins Above Replacement, a metric designed to use offensive and defensive production within a single stat.

In today’s Total WAR Project, we visit the famous story of the jilted ex-boyfriend. You know the feeling when, as Gloria Gaynor famously sang, “you see me with somebody new,” and your heart immediately falls into your colon? Well, it’s not exactly like that, but there will always be a sense of “what-could-have-been” for Phillies fans with Cliff Lee. Yes, the Phils dumped him for a stud, but the grass is always greener, etc. Sort of like when I broke off my torrid romance with Holly Hunter to be with Kate, my Long-Suffering Girlfriend. I’m happy now, but every time I watch Broadcast News, there’s that little twinge of regret. But I digress.

We have identified, studied, and otherwise examined the six teams that are most likely to deny the Phillies the pennant, either by preventing them from winning the division or Wild Card or by knocking them out in the NL playoffs: the Braves, the Mets, the Rockies, the Cardinals, the Dodgers, and the Brewers.

And so we journey to the mystic American League West to take a look at the first of three teams that could give the Fightins the most trouble in the World Series: The Seattle Mariners.

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Moratoria

Posted by Michael Baumann, Tue, March 09, 2010 03:52 PM

There aren’t very many things I don’t feel comfortable talking about. There’s the saying about how you don’t talk about politics, religion, or money–I’m devoting my professional life to the study of politics, and I love talking about religion because it’s an easy way to wind people up. Money, I don’t talk about much, but that’s probably related to my having so little. That might change later.

About a third of what comes out of my mouth is either sexual innuendo or scatological humor. I fart at the dinner table and talk about it openly. You get the idea. Really, there are only two things that I think are off the table for discussion: first, my social life from ages 11 to 16. I don’t want to talk about that for the same reason Mark McGwire doesn’t want to talk about the past–it was a dark phase that I regret and would rather pretend didn’t happen.

The other off-limits topic of conversation has to do with the time, my junior year of college, when I went to a party in Columbia, SC, on Friday and woke up 18 hours later in a barn in Tennessee with my pants on backwards, my torso covered in blue and green paint and a goat tied to my left arm. I don’t know what happened, and I’m fairly comfortable keeping it that way.

But today, I feel like adding some things to that list. Here are six Phillies-related topics or phrases that I could really go the rest of my life without ever hearing again.

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Mother Mayberry I?

Posted by Michael Baumann, Sun, February 21, 2010 07:55 PM

So after that Johnny Damon debacle, I concede defeat. As it turns out, it cost $8 million for a year of Johnny Damon, which is waaaaay more than the Tigers ought to have paid. And to the question of whether a Damon-Werth-Ibanez outfield would have been good enough to get by, the response seems to be a resounding, “Hell no!”

Fair enough.

But there was a tangent of the conversation that I found interesting. Could the Phillies get rid of an outfielder and be OK with some combination of the following two players: Ben Francisco and John Mayberry?

Even if no one gets traded, this might wind up being an important question for this coming Phillies season. This very interesting post at Beyond the Box Score ranks the 30 major league teams in terms of how much value they lost to injury in 2009. The Phillies lost the fifth-least, which I can’t help but think contributed to their outstanding 2009 (though it throws into stark relief how bad the Astros were last year).

I shouldn’t have to remind any of you how easily injuries can derail a team’s season (just look at the Mets last year). So if one of the Phillies’ three outfielders goes down, we should know what to expect from their replacements. Francisco, a three-year major league veteran, is a known quantity at 29. Essentially take Shane Victorino, turn the defense, speed, power, throwing arm, and hitting for average tool knobs down about 10-20% each, and turn the hitting for power knob up about 30%. And he’s right-handed. If any Phillies outfielder went down, I’d be OK going into battle with Disco–you can win a World Series if he’s your seventh-best position player.

But the second backup outfielder, John Mayberry, Jr., is the real interesting one.

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You’d Best Just Shoot Me Now–Or We Can Talk Some More

Posted by Michael Baumann, Thu, February 18, 2010 04:19 PM

Please excuse a brief non-Phillies related anecdote to start. I promise, I’ll tie it in later.

In the 1970s, English soccer manager Brian Clough led Nottingham Forest to two consecutive European championships, a feat no English team has equaled since. Nottingham Forest is a small-market team whose history can be defined in three eras: pre-1975, when they sucked; 1975-1993, when Clough made them into one of the top teams in Europe, and 1993-present, when they sucked again.

Clough’s mantra was to know what all your players were worth at all times, and if you could get market value for them at any point, no matter how popular that player was, to trade him in for someone cheaper or younger. Clough’s approach worked. Need a more accessible example? This is what Bill Belichick does with the NFL’s Patriots, and we all know how well that’s worked out these past 10 years.

I’m acutely aware that what I’m about to write is going to be tremendously unpopular with our readership. I can barely believe I’m saying this now. Neither do I expect a single person to agree with me.

But this is what I think, so here it goes.

I think the Phillies should:

1) Trade Shane Victorino for whatever prospects they can get.

2) Move Jayson Werth to center and Raul Ibanez to right field.

3) Sign free agent outfielder Johnny Damon to a one or two-year contract and install him in left.

If you want to skip right to the end and start questioning my sexuality and calling for me to be tarred and feathered, I suppose that’s your prerogative. I don’t think this is a slam-dunk, and I’m aware that Damon will most likely sign with either Detroit or Atlanta in the coming days, but I think that a good argument can be made for replacing Victorino with Damon. This is that argument.

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Whom Can We Trust?

Posted by Michael Baumann, Fri, February 05, 2010 02:46 PM

I’m not that easily shocked, but something happened to me Wednesday night that I think bears repeating here. I was at a bar with a couple friends, when, realizing that the famed “Pitchers and Catchers” was only a couple weeks away, I let out a sigh and said, almost without thinking, “God, I’m ready for baseball season to start again.”

Three tables away, a man overheard my comment, came over my table, and almost without warning launched into a three-minutes of some of the most hateful invective I’ve ever heard about one Cole Hamels. I began offering some counter-arguments (”Cole was distracted with the new wife and baby” and “Cole was unlucky with his high BABIP”), but this man was hearing nothing of it. He didn’t hear me, because he was screaming so loud and not stopping to breathe, and even if he had, I don’t think he would have cared much about the fact that Cole allowed two more hits per 9 innings in 2009 than 2008, despite almost all other peripheral stats remaining the same.

It occurred to me that the Phillies’ ascendancy in 2007 and 2008 was due in large part to three players who, for whatever reason, were all just abject disappointments in 2009. These three–Jimmy Rollins, Hamels, and Brad Lidge, will all be back in prominent roles in 2010. I don’t think it’s fair to blame these three for the failure to repeat (after all, a lot of things went wrong in that World Series), but I do think it would help if the Phillies had a leadoff hitter with an OBP over .300, a No. 2 starter who’s somewhat more consistent than two-hit shutout one night, then 7 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings five days later, and a closer who’s not having literally the worst year ever for a full-season closer.

So from these three stalwart Phillies, what can we expect? Whom can we trust?

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Year In Review: Pedro Martinez

Posted by Michael Baumann, Wed, February 03, 2010 03:33 PM

You’d have to go back a long time to find a pitcher in Phillies pinstripes who had a better career resume than Pedro Martinez. In his day, he was as dominant as any right-handed pitcher ever to play the game.

So even though he would turn 38 during the playoffs, and even though his previous three seasons could best be described as “injury-riddled” or “mediocre,” the Phillies, in a scene straight out of a thousand movies, talked him into giving it one last spin.

And you know what? In 12 starts, counting the postseason, he wasn’t too bad. It was obvious that this wasn’t the turn-of-the-century Pedro who was so dominant he looked bored half the time. But he maintained his impeccable control (4.63 K/BB ratio for the regular season), changed arm angles, and could still reach back for a low-90s fastball a couple times a game.

All in all, what turned out to be a low-risk deal for $1 million plus incentives paid off quite well. By the time he signed in mid-July, the Phillies had, for months, trotted out a finally over-the-hill Jamie Moyer and a parade of fringe veterans and AAA kids who might not have quite been ready. Pedro stepped into the fifth starter’s spot and pitched well enough that he warranted three outings in the playoffs. And that’s where this gets complicated.

In his first start, Game 2 of the NLCS, Pedro looked like he had been cryogenically frozen after the 1999 season and the Phillies had decided to decant him for the occasion. Seven shutout innings, only two baserunners allowed, 23 batters faced, only 87 pitches thrown. Of course, the Phillies eventually lost when Chase Utley started throwing to an imaginary fifteen-foot high first baseman.

But Uncle Cholly was impressed enough to throw Pedro back into the fray for Game 2 of the World Series at Yankee Stadium. He didn’t pitch badly, even amid a chorus of “Who’s Your Daddy?” chants. He struck out eight Yankees in six innings, but he took the loss when either A.J. Burnett had the game of his life, or the Phillies hitters just forgot to show up.

Game 6 was a different story. All I’ll say about that game is that Andy Pettitte didn’t pitch that great either, and while Pedro could have saved the series by throwing a three-hit shutout, I don’t know if it was reasonable to expect him to do that.

So for a good half-season, an up-and-down playoff run, and the best Jheri curl since Michael Jackson’s Thriller album cover, I thank you, Pedro Martinez, and wish you well.

2009 numbers: 5-1, 3.63 ERA, 44.2 IP, 37 K, .276 BAA, 1.25 WHIP, 4 HBP

Grade: 5.5/10—Let’s face it, he was an average pitcher for half a season, and that World Series Game 6 was something of a stinker. But an effective and entertaining starter in July on a “Why not?” signing is worth at least a golf clap.

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The Total WAR Project, Part IV: St. Louis Cardinals

Posted by Michael Baumann, Wed, January 27, 2010 07:00 AM

One sentence introducing you to this format. While at The Phrontiersman, I identified the ten teams that pose the greatest threat to the Phillies’ World Series run in 2010 and decided to see how they’re doing in relation to each other this offseason; the rules are here, and we’ve already covered the Braves, Mets, and Rockies. If something seems odd, or if you have questions about the methodology, odds are you’ll find it in one of those posts.

This isn’t really a war story, but I find it interesting. English singer-songwriter James Blunt was actually a Royal Army captain before making it big as a musician. While serving in an armored reconnaissance unit during the NATO peacekeeping mission in 1999, Blunt kept his guitar strapped to the outside of his tank and played in his free time. It was there that he began writing his album Back to Bedlam, which, of course, contained his international No. 1 hit, “You’re Beautiful.” But I hate that song, so I’m not going to link it here.

Interesting fact about the Cardinals: they’re not named after the bird. Nope—according to Bill James, St. Louis had three professional baseball teams in the late 19th century. The Cardinals were actually founded in 1882 as the Brown Stockings (later the Browns). In 1885, the St. Louis Maroons joined the National League from the Union Association before moving to Indianapolis. Finally, in 1900, the Browns, after a year as the St. Louis Perfectos (I’m sure whoever thought of that moniker lost his job immediately), the team decided to continue the city’s baseball tradition of adopting progressively lighter shades for its team names—cardinal refers to the color (much like Stanford University), not the bird.

Incidentally, in 1902, the American League set up shop in St. Louis with another team called the Browns. In 1954 they moved to Baltimore and became the Orioles. Don’t worry. They are named after the bird.

Total WAR continues after the jump. With some Madcon, for your listening pleasure.

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If I Were a Las Vegas Sportsbook

Posted by Michael Baumann, Tue, January 19, 2010 08:45 PM

Greetings. You probably don’t know who I am, so let me take a moment to introduce myself. My name is Michael Baumann, and I’m one of the two new bloggers who have decided to sell out and go mainstream. My buddy Paul and I will be providing you with analysis (most of it sabermetric, but don’t tune out just yet), whimsy, projections, speculation, and other odds and ends in the coming months. I hope you enjoy having us almost as much as I hope I don’t screw the pooch on this one. I’m just happy to be here and I hope I can help out the ballclub.

But on to business. It’s now late January, and that means that the Super Bowl is bearing down on us. For some, that means wings, commercials, and debate over which one of Andy Reid or Donovan McNabb (or both) is to blame for the Eagles not being there. Not me. For me, it means prop bets. Now, sports betting isn’t legal in Pennsylvania or New Jersey, and even if it were, I’m not really much of a gambler. I find point spreads and money lines sort of boring, but during Super Bowl Week, you can bet the over/under for the number of the player who scores the first touchdown, or the set list in Bruce Springsteen’s halftime show. I love these wagers.

So it got me thinking, since there is no baseball going on right now, and the Phillies appear to be putting the finishing touches on their team for next year, what prop bets would I offer on the Phillies for 2010 if I were a Las Vegas sportsbook?

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The Total WAR Project, Part III: The Colorado Rockies

Posted by Michael Baumann, Fri, January 15, 2010 01:09 PM

Around 60 or 61 A.D., the Romans were colonizing the British Isles, they encountered resistance from an indigenous tribe called the Iceni offered token resistance around modern-day Norfolk. Led by Boudica, the widow of a king who had made peace with the Romans, the Iceni forged local alliances to collect an army of around 230,000 to march on Londinium, routing a Roman legion and sacking a Roman colony along the way.

The Roman governor of Britain, Gaius Suetonius Paulinus, at the head of 10,000 men, met them at what is now known as the Battle of Watling Street. Paulinus assembled his men, equipped with superior spears and armor, in a V shape, effectively funneling the Iceni attackers into a wedge where they could be surrounded by the cavalry and systematically cut down.

The plan worked spectacularly. The Romans suffered only 400 casualties, while the Britons suffered more than 80,000 – 200 Iceni for every Roman.

Amazing what you can down when you’ve got a plan and your opponent doesn’t.

What I’ve always found interesting about the Rockies is that while Coors Field caters to power hitters, the Rockies tend to have speedy, slap-hitting center fielders, rather than power hitters. The only exception is Ellis Burks–otherwise, the Rockies’ history is littered with guys like Dexter Fowler, Juan Pierre, Willy Taveras, and Alex Cole (look him up, I dare you).

This is because the architects who built Coors Field knew that the thin air would result in the ball flying out of the park, so they built a massive outfield, which needed a speedy, slap-hitting center fielder patrolling it. Otherwise, just about everything hit in the air would drop for a hit. Offensively, even someone like Juan Pierre, who hasn’t hit a ball further than 300 feet since 2001, benefits because of that huge outfield. The deep fence means the opposing outfielders play farther back, which, in turn, means that lots of Texas Leaguers drop and lots of 180-foot doubles get hit.

Total WAR numbers for the Rockies after the jump.

2009 Roster

C1: Chris Iannetta (2.0 WAR)
C2: Yorvit Torrealba (0.8 WAR)

1B: Todd Helton (3.6 WAR)
2B: Clint Barmes (1.9 WAR)
3B: Garrett Atkins (-0.4 WAR)
SS: Troy Tulowitzki (5.4 WAR)
INF: Ian Stewart (1.2 WAR)

OF1: Brad Hawpe (1.3 WAR)
OF2: Dexter Fowler (0.7 WAR)
OF3: Seth Smith (2.7 WAR)
OF4: Carlos Gonzalez (2.4 WAR)
OF5: Ryan Spillborghs (0.3 WAR)

SP1: Ubaldo Jimenez (5.7 WAR)
SP2: Jorge de la Rosa (3.7 WAR)
SP3: Jason Marquis (3.8 WAR)
SP4: Jason Hammel (3.8 WAR)
SP5: Aaron Cook (1.9 WAR)

CL: Huston Street (1.5 WAR)
SU: Rafael Betancourt (1.0 WAR)
RP: Matt Daley (0.7 WAR)
RP: Franklin Morales (0.5 WAR)
RP: Manny Corpas (0.4 WAR)
RP: Josh Fogg (-0.1 WAR)
RP: Matt Belisle (0.0 WAR)
RP: Alan Embree (-0.1 WAR)

2009 Total WAR: 44.7

The more I look at the numbers, the more I like this team. You know how everyone was saying a while back how you can’t win with pitching and defense in Coors Field? Well FUCK ‘EM.

That rotation’s quite good, and still quite young (out of the 5 starters for the 2010 Rockies, every one has posted at least one season of 3.7 WAR or better, and their ages will be 25, 29, 27, 31, and 29).

When I was looking at how J.A. Happ was more lucky than good last year, and how Cole Hamels was more unlucky than bad last year, I kept running into Jason Hammel. His case was like Cole’s only worse. Ask a baseball fan to name 6 starting pitchers under contract with the Rockies in 2009, and I bet Hammel’s name doesn’t even come up. I get great enjoyment out of the fact that everyone acted like Jorge de la Rosa’s injury last year was as big a deal as the injury to Ben Sheets in the 2008 NLDS (the Phillies don’t get out of the first round in 2008 if Sheets is healthy), when Hammel, who had a slightly better season, was an afterthought.

You wouldn’t know it from these numbers, but the Rockies’ biggest problem last year was the platoon split. Brad Hawpe (someone at Deadspin called the 2007 World Series “Hawpe on Papi,” a pun that I’ve giggled at periodically ever since) has an enormous platoon split. Against righties, he’s essentially Chase Utley (about .300/.400/.550), but against lefties, he’s barely a major-league average hitter. Likewise Garrett Atkins. I’ll concede that Atkins’ biggest problem is not the platoon split – it’s the fact that since 2006, his OPS has dropped almost exactly 100 points a year like clockwork. But it is worth noting that he OPS’d almost 250 points higher against lefties than righties. Also, while I was on his splits page, I noticed that Atkins hit .350 or better facing a starting pitcher for the second or third time in a game, which was almost as high as his OPS against a starting pitcher in his first at-bat in the game. I’m not sure what can be done about this, but there must be something, because he sucked last year.

But Atkins is gone now, leaving only one bleeding, gangrenous pustule on the team’s otherwise impeccably maintained backside: the bullpen. In 2009, one would have been well-advised to heed the words of Captain Kirk on the Klingons and apply them to the Rockies relievers: “Don’t Trust Them.”

There’s a lot of potential in that bullpen, but not a single pitcher who can’t be touched. No one knows the perils of an unpredictable bullpen better than Phillies fans, and I know I can say that’s no way to go through a pennant race.

2010 Roster

C1: Chris Iannetta (3.0 WAR)
C2: Miguel Olivo (1.4 WAR)

1B: Todd Helton (3.0 WAR)
2B: Clint Barmes (1.9 WAR)
3B: Ian Stewart (3.0 WAR)
SS: Troy Tulowitzki (6.4 WAR)
INF: Eric Young (1.9 WAR)

OF1: Brad Hawpe (2.2 WAR)
OF2: Dexter Fowler (2.2 WAR)
OF3: Seth Smith (2.3 WAR)
OF4: Carlos Gonzalez (2.6 WAR)
OF5: Ryan Spillborghs (0.8 WAR)

SP1: Ubaldo Jimenez (5.1 WAR)*
SP2: Jorge de la Rosa (3.7 WAR) 4.07 FIP, 162 IP
SP3: Aaron Cook (1.9 WAR) 4.28 FIP, 172 IP
SP4: Jason Hammel (3.8 WAR) 4.32 FIP, 157 IP
SP5: Jeff Francis (1.6 WAR in 2008) 4.41 FIP, 157 IP (Bill James)

CL: Huston Street (1.5 WAR) 2.99 FIP, 55 IP
SU: Rafael Betancourt (1.4 WAR) 3.60, 63 IP
RP: Matt Daley (0.7 WAR) 3.98 FIP, 59 IP
RP: Franklin Morales (0.5 WAR) 5.10 FIP, 56 IP (Bill James)
RP: Manny Corpas (0.4 WAR) 3.87 FIP, 59 IP
RP: Taylor Buchholz (1.2 WAR in 2008) 4.32 FIP, 31 IP (Bill James)
RP: Matt Belisle (0.0 WAR) 4.02 FIP, 62 IP
RP: Esmil Rogers (0.1 WAR) 4.10 FIP, 62 IP (Marcel)

2010 Projected Total WAR: 52.6

Out: Atkins, Marquis, Torrealba, Embree, Fogg

In: Eric Young, Jr., Jeff Francis, Taylor Buchholz, Miguel Olivo, Esmil Rogers

Just as a note, I used the three Bill James projections and a Marcel projection because CHONE doesn’t recognize the existence of Jeff Francis or Taylor Buchholz, and they bumped Morales and Rogers up to the rotation.

Ah, a Taylor Buchholz sighting. I remember him being the onetime Phillies’ Closer of the Future—Now if that isn’t a death sentence I don’t know what is. Also, noted Phillies Killer Yorvit Torrealba has been kidnapped…no, that’s not right…released is the word I was looking for.

Anyhoo. Like the Braves with Hudson, the Rockies get a front-line starter back from injury, noted Canadian luminary Jeff Francis. I’ve been a Francis fan since I read a story on him in Baseball Weekly when he was in college. He didn’t want to leave Canada to go to college, so he went to the only Canadian school that plays NAIA baseball (for those of you unfamiliar with the NAIA, it’s the rung of American collegiate athletics below the NCAA, even Division III) even though he was a first-round talent. He wound up dominating and getting picked by the Rockies in the first round anyway, and I thought it was a cool story, so I’ve rooted for him ever since, except when he beat Cole Hamels in Game 1 of the 2007 NLDS.

So that covers the two Rockies pitchers who haven’t thrown a ball in over a year. Apart from that, it looks like we’re in for a little regression across the board from what was an outstanding and fun starting staff last year. However, the various projectors show the bullpen picking up the slack a little, which would offset the regression of pitching staff. There’s no reason Ubaldo Jimenez doesn’t continue to get better, and given that, if they have 4 other guys who go out there and pitch well on their turns, as all indications say they will, the Rockies ought to be in good shape.

The really exciting part comes from the continued progression of Troy Tulowitzki and Chris Iannetta, as well as the emergence of perhaps the most exciting pair of young outfielders in the game: Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler. Fowler was the Rockies’ starting center fielder from midseason last year. He’s one of the fastest players in the game, and while he only hit .266 last season, he hit 29 doubles and walked 67 times in 518 PA. The thing I like best about him is that he’s already got pretty good plate discipline for a 23-year-old with fewer than 500 major league at bats in his career. Plus he’s got that top-end speed you need to patrol center field in Coors.

He needs to improve on two things in order to take the leap to elite status. First, he needs to be more selective in his base-stealing. Fowler was 27-for 37 last year. With that speed, he can be absolute murder to opposing batteries if he gets better at reading pitchers and picking his spots.

The second, I’ll get back to in a moment. Carlos Gonzalez, who came to Colorado in the first Matt Holliday trade last season, is poised for a breakout year. I distinctly remember him hitting around .850 in last year’s playoffs. We just could not get this guy out. He’s almost like Fowler, a speed guy with an eye, except that he hits lefty (Fowler’s a switch hitter) and with a little higher average and a little more power.

Ok. Back to that second way Fowler can get better. Tony Gwynn told a story once that George Will recounted in his book Men at Work. In 1984, when the Padres went to the World Series, Gwynn credited the great season that he had to Padres shortstop Alan Wiggins. Wiggins got into drugs after that year and was never really the same; in 1987 he fell for the hidden ball trick twice in the same season and in 1991 he became (it is believed) the first major league ballplayer to die of complications from AIDS.

But in 1984, Wiggins stole 70 bases. Pitchers were so afraid of Wiggins on the bases that they faced Gwynn, who had almost Ichiro-like bat control, more fastballs than he had ever seen. The idea was that throwing fastballs would make it easier to catch Wiggins stealing. Never mind that it allowed Gwynn to sit on the heater and post what was to that point a career season. Gwynn tallied 213 hits and a .351 batting average, both league-leading totals, Wiggins scored 106 runs, and the Padres won the pennant.

Fowler and Gonzalez could be that kind of a 1-2 punch in front of Tulo and some combination of Helton, Seth Smith, Brad Hawpe, and Chris Iannetta if Fowler hadn’t struck out 116 times in 433 at bats in 2009. That’s an appalling rate, one that you can get away with if you’re Mark Reynolds, Ryan Howard, or Adam Dunn, but not if you’re a leadoff hitter who only hits 4 homers a year.

Particularly maddening is that Fowler’s BABIP was .355 last year, a mark that I suggest is 100 percent sustainable with his speed. If he ever cuts down on his strikeouts, he’ll be just incredible. Turning 10 percent of his strikeouts into walks and another 10 percent infield hits ups his OBP by 50 points.

I brought this up the other night with Paul, and he tells me that young players very seldom cut down their strikeout rates, but reducing his bat speed and concentrating more on contact might be the difference between Fowler being a good leadoff man and a great one. Either way, he’s a good player now, and is a couple tweaks in his game from being a great one. Even if he doesn’t cut down on his strikeouts, a little coaching could raise his stolen base percentage, and then you’ve got a .360 OBP leadoff hitter with blinding speed. I suppose you could do worse.

Fowler and Gonzalez are just two of five good outfielders on the Rockies. I think that’s going to be one of their greatest strengths: depth and flexibility. Apart from Tulowitzki, there isn’t a superstar on this team, but neither is there a position player on the roster who would be truly embarrassing to trot out there every day. The Rockies have managed to get 13 solid position players on the same roster, which is hard to do. The Phillies and Yankees didn’t manage that last year.

Between Smith, Hawpe, Gonzalez, Fowler, and Ryan Spillborghs, they have five quality outfielders, plus second baseman Eric Young, Jr., who can also play center. Starting second baseman Clint Barmes can also play short (and third in a pinch), and third baseman Ian Stewart can also play second. Should he so choose, manager Jim Tracy could rewrite his lineup every day, putting the best seven of his non-catcher position players out there in just about any combination. That kind of interchangeability can be invaluable to a manager, particularly when injuries strike. Tracy showed in 2009 that he was no problem shaking up the batting order, so expect more of the same in 2009.

The projections show the Rockies taking a big step forward, about 8 wins’ worth of WAR in total improvement. Of course, a lot of that is predicated on how well Jeff Francis and Taylor Buchholz bounce back from a year’s layoff, and how well players like Gonzalez and Stewart react to playing every day.

I’m really rooting for these Rockies–they’ve got a bunch of fun, likable young players, and with all due respect to the Cardinals, this team is one breakout season away from being the Phillies’ biggest competition for the NL pennant next year.

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The Total WAR Project, Part I: Atlanta Braves

Posted by Michael Baumann, Wed, January 13, 2010 12:22 PM

One of the great 20th-century proponents of Total War, Curtis LeMay, advocated a nuclear version of total war (should it come to pass) called Mutually Assured Destruction. LeMay (the inspiration not only for General Buck Turgidson of Kubrick’s Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb but for Burt Lancaster’s hawkish and treasonous General James Scott in Seven Days in May) thought that the best way to prevent war was to make the cost of waging it too high for a rational enemy (read: the Soviet Union) to want to wage it.

Khrushchev once said of LeMay’s vision, “The living would envy the dead.”

And so it came to pass that I discovered, after having promised the Total WAR project for all players, that FanGraphs’ CHONE projections don’t include predicted value numbers for pitchers. Therefore, where possible, I’ll be using the fan projections, which do. It’s far less scientific, I know, but for the purposes of keeping the numbers consistent, it seems to be the best option. If the fan numbers are completely f’d up the a, missing, or if only a few readers have projected stats, I’ll just repeat last year’s. This only seems to be happening with middle relievers and back-end starters, however. 2009 numbers will be italicized and followed by CHONE’s projected FIP and innings pitched, and fan predictions will be marked with an asterisk. It’s also worth noting that fan projections seem to be consistently optimistic, if only by a couple decimal points, because of the preponderance of, for instance, Braves fans projecting Braves players. Just bear that in mind when you’re reading.

So. On to the Braves.

In April 2006, I saw a Phillies-Braves game at Turner Field. The Phillies won behind early homers by Bobby Abreu, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard, and Gavin Floyd got the win. In the later innings, the Braves fans (such as were left), started doing the tomahawk chop, and I almost caught myself joining in. It’s hypnotic. Far and away the best cheer in sports, racist though it may be. Total WAR begins after the jump.

2009 Roster

C1: Brian McCann (4.4 WAR)
C2: David Ross (1.7 WAR)

1B: Adam LaRoche (2.4 WAR)
2B: Kelly Johnson (0.7 WAR)
3B: Chipper Jones (2.8 WAR)
SS: Yunel Escobar (4.1 WAR)
INF: Martin Prado (2.8 WAR)

OF1: Nate McLouth (1.9 WAR)
OF2: Garret Anderson (-1.0 WAR)
OF3: Matt Diaz (2.5 WAR)
OF4: Ryan Church (0.5 WAR)
OF5: Omar Infante (1.1 WAR)

SP1: Javier Vazquez (6.6 WAR)
SP2: Jair Jurrjens (3.9 WAR)
SP3: Derek Lowe (2.7 WAR)
SP4: Tommy Hanson (2.6 WAR)
SP5: Kenshin Kawakami (1.7 WAR)

CL: Rafael Soriano (2.0 WAR)
SU: Peter Moylan (1.5 WAR)
RP: Mike Gonzalez (0.9 WAR)
RP: Kris Medlen (0.9 WAR)
RP: Eric O’Flaherty (0.7 WAR)
RP: Manny Acosta (0.0 WAR)
RP: Jeff Bennett (-0.1 WAR)
RP: Buddy Carlyle (-0.5 WAR)

2009 Total WAR: 46.8

Obviously, there were contributions by players not listed here, but while other bench players like Greg Norton and Diory Hernandez spent some time in the majors, they didn’t get enough playing time to make a huge impact. These are literally quad-A replacement players, the likes of whom the Braves will probably trot out from time to time this season as well, to similar effect.

If the name Diory Hernandez sounds familiar, it’s probably because you’ve read a Braves box score. I remember him because the only game I’ve ever live-blogged (an extra-inning Braves win in June) featured Uncle Cholly intentionally walking Hernandez twice when he (Diory, not Uncle Cholly) was hitting .128. Mystifying.

Anyway, lots of these replacement-level players (some of whom snuck into the back end of the bullpen anyway) put up negative WAR numbers anyway. You can find stats for everyone who put on a Braves uniform last year here and here.

2010 Roster

C1: Brian McCann (4.7 WAR)
C2: David Ross (2.5 WAR)

1B: Troy Glaus (1.7 WAR)
2B: Martin Prado (2.2 WAR)
3B: Chipper Jones (3.8 WAR)
SS: Yunel Escobar (4.7 WAR)
INF: Omar Infante (1.1 WAR)

OF1: Nate McLouth (2.5 WAR)
OF2: Matt Diaz (1.1 WAR)
OF3: Melky Cabrera (3.4 WAR)
OF4: Gregor Blanco (1.4 WAR)
OF5: Eric Hinske (0.7 WAR)

SP1: Jair Jurrjens (4.1 WAR)*
SP2: Tommy Hanson (4.6 WAR)*
SP3: Derek Lowe (4.0 WAR)*
SP4: Tim Hudson (3.4 WAR)*
SP5: Kenshin Kawakami (2.3 WAR)*

CL: Billy Wagner (1.1 WAR)*
SU: Peter Moylan (1.5 WAR) 3.67 FIP, 52 IP
RP: Eric O’Flaherty (0.7 WAR) 3.74 FIP, 48 IP
RP: Kris Medlen (0.9 WAR) 3.31 FIP, 57 IP
RP: Manny Acosta (0.0 WAR) 4.47 FIP, 57 IP
RP: Jo-Jo Reyes (0.1 WAR) 5.02 FIP, 127 IP as a starter
RP: James Parr (0.1 WAR) 4.86 FIP, 104 IP as a starter
RP: Luis Valdez (0.0 WAR) 4.33 FIP, 78 IP

2010 Projected Total WAR: 52.6

Out: Vazquez, Johnson, LaRoche, Church, Anderson, Soriano, Gonzalez

In: Glaus, Cabrera, Hinske, Blanco, Hudson, Wagner, Reyes, Parr, Valdez

Obviously, Blanco, Hudson, Reyes, Parr, and Valdez all played for the Braves last year, just not enough to make the cut for the 2009 Total WAR list.

Hudson, if he can bounce back from injury, will probably be huge, and the 3.4 WAR the fans have him putting up is not out of the question. Derek Lowe and Tommy Hanson, on the other hand, are a different story. If Hanson and Lowe both put up a 4-win seasons next year I’ll do the tomahawk chop in Love Park.

The biggest acquisition for the Braves, by far, is that of Eric Hinske. The 2002 AL Rookie of the Year has bounced around of late, playing for 3 teams in the past 3 years. However, each of those 3 teams has won the AL pennant. Therefore, I can predict with extreme confidence that the Atlanta Braves will be your 2010 American League Champion! Wait…that’s not right, is it….

Having a full season of Nate McLouth will help, and I personally think that CHONE has completely screwed both him and Matt Diaz. Both are slated for a drop-off of at least a win in value, a prediction that I honestly can’t find any reason to suspect.

The bad news for the Braves is that they’re still broke, they’ve only got three really good position players under 30, and they’ve just traded their best player last year (by almost two full wins) almost straight-up for a mediocre outfielder.

The good news is that they’ve got at least five quality starting pitchers, including a pair of twentysomethings who could be monsters coming through in the next couple years, a few nice young relievers, and quality depth at just about every position.

One unique condition for the Braves is that of Jason Heyward, one of the few young prospects who I think warrants special mention, so, with your indulgence, a few words on him before we finish.

Heyward is very young—he’ll only miss the distinction of “first major leaguer born after I was potty-trained” by only a couple months, but he’s a 6-foot-4, 220-pound man-child.

Heyward won’t turn 21 until after the all-star break next year, but Bill James has him getting 600 plate appearances in 2010 and hitting .300 with pretty good power and plate discipline. Last year, he started as a 19-year-old single-A outfielder and finished the year in AAA, having OPS’d (near as makes no difference) 1.000 between three levels of the minor leagues.

Essentially, all indications are that Heyward can step into a major league uniform before he can legally step into a bar and be a Jayson Werth-type player right off the proverbial bat.

CHONE only has him getting 300 or so at-bats next year, with all rate stats down about 50 points from James, but that’s still an age 20/21 season worth 1.4 wins.

I’m inclined to predict that Heyward will start the season at AAA Gwinnett, but will not stay there long. By the time Heyward turns 21, Atlanta will have liquidated one of Cabrera, Diaz, or Blanco, and installed Heyward in his place.

But I digress.

All told, Total WAR shows the Braves having improved by nearly six wins. I call bullshit on that, based on CHONE overrating Melky Cabrera and Gregor Blanco and the fans counting their starting pitching chickens before they hatch. If Cabrera and Blanco duplicate last year’s stats, they’ll combine for about 2 wins between the two of them. CHONE puts the two of them at close to 5 wins.

We’ll see throughout the rest of the project whether that’s a systematic thing or not. For now, you can lock in Atlanta’s delta-Total WAR: +5.7.

Next up in Part II: the New York Mets

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The Total WAR Project: Prologue

Posted by Michael Baumann, Tue, January 12, 2010 04:48 PM

For the first time in my life, I’d be shocked if the Phillies didn’t make the World Series. I mean, they’ve won the past 2 pennants with the same basic core group of players they’ve got right now. But what happens when they get there?

The way I see it, the Phillies have two main rivals for the division: the Braves and Mets. Once they get out of the division, I’d say that last year’s three other playoff teams (Rockies, Cardinals, and Dodgers) are a threat in the National League playoffs. Honestly, the Giants and Cubs might make a push for the pennant, but they’re so dysfunctional that I seriously doubt the likelihood of such an occurrence.

In the American League, the Yankees and Red Sox stand head and shoulders above everyone else, with the Rays, Mariners, and Angels in the second tier of contenders. Nothing good’s going to come out of the Central, trust me. Of course, now that I’ve said that, we can all bank on a Twins-Giants World Series next November.

So that makes 10 teams in all. The Phillies, if they’re going to win the World Series this fall, will have to make it through some combination of those teams. With all the wheeling and dealing going on, who out of those teams has gotten better, compared to last season, and who has gotten worse?

In short, how well and truly screwed are the Phillies heading into next fall?

Now, this is going to be an extremely unscientific analysis. Originally, I was just going to consider major acquisitions and departures (the Yankees lose Melky Cabrera and Johnny Damon but pick up Javier Vazquez and Curtis Granderson, for instance), and compare WAR from 2009 and the CHONE projections in 2010 (available on FanGraphs), but I figure, why not make this an 11-part series? So I’ll put together a 25-man roster for each of these 11 teams (or, more accurately, outsource it to India, where our Phrontiertern, Vikram, will do it for 10 cents on the dollar), total up the 2009 WAR and the 2010 CHONE-predicted WAR, and get back to you with the list, the totals, and some brief analysis.

I realize that rosters haven’t been finalized, and that each team will probably field at least one player that none of us has ever heard of, but I hope that it will just give an impression of where we stand.

Finally, FEEL FREE TO COMMENT. The whole point of this experiment is to start irrational screaming matches, so if you think something’s way off, speak up fachrissake.

That is all. See you, most likely tomorrow, with part I: The Atlanta Braves.

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