Phillies Nation

Beerman’s Report Card: Cliff Lee Trade

Posted by Nick "Beerman" Staskin, Thu, March 04, 2010 10:26 AM

PHILLIES TRADE CLIFF LEE TO SEATTLE FOR PROSPECTS PHILLIPPE AUMONT, TYSON GILLIES AND JUAN RAMIREZ

Hello, dead horse. Prepare to be beaten.

As stated Tuesday in the Roy Halladay post – which prompted a slew of Roy Halladay vs. Cliff Lee and Kyle Drabek vs. Phillippe Aumont arguments on the comments page – the other shoe dropped.

Postseason hero and former AL Cy Young winner, Cliff Lee was dealt to the Mariners in a puzzling move on the same day that Roy Halladay was acquired. We were told it was to “replenish the farm system.”

Let me quote the former pro wrestler, Sid Justice, “JACK TUNNEY, THIS IS BOGUS!”

When is the last time you saw an NL Champion “replenish the farm system?” The term “NL Champion” means that the team was not good enough to win the World Series. Why? Well, pitching had a helluva lot to do with it.

This is the same Phillies team that had such little confidence in its starting pitchers against the New York Yankees, that Pedro Martinez started two games of the World Series.

For one year you could have had, without question, the best rotation in baseball. Who would want to play the Phils in a postseason series when you had to face Halladay, Lee and Cole Hamels? The rotation could have been set up to have not only the best top two in baseball, but the best 3-4-5 in Hamels, Joe Blanton and JA Happ. In actuality, it is not Roy Halladay that is replacing Lee in the rotation. It is either Jamie Moyer or Kyle Kendrick, cause either of them would have been the odd man out.

If Lee walked after this year, the Phillies would have received two-first round picks.

Those two-first round picks couldn’t have helped replenish the farm system?

Phillippe Aumont only pitched in 51 innings last season in the minors. How much further along could he be than a first-rounder? His size and stature are nice and he seems to have a powerful arm, but he is projected by many to never crack a starting rotation and pitch out of the bullpen for his professional career.

Tyson Gillies hit .341 in single-A ball last year, but is projected by many to be a fourth outfielder at best. The average looks nice and he has a lot of speed, but scouts have been quick to mention that the park he played in, Slater Bros. Stadium is one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums in the minors.

The other prospect in the deal was Juan Ramirez, another pitcher thought to be a reliever at best.

What it comes down to is the Phillies gave up an ace in exchange for three prospects. Since when can’t a World Series contender have enough pitching? Lee was due to make only $9MM this season. If the money was an option, then why not let Joe Blanton walk? Ruben Amaro gave up a $20MM pitcher, due to make a fraction of that. This is just bad business.

The Phillies have a stadium that is sold out nearly every night. Money should never be an option. Furthermore, the Phils are not in rebuilding mode for good reason. The team is built to win now. Look at the teams that have been a staple of success over the past few years: Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Angels. Do any of them ever make a deal to bring in prospects? Look at teams with payrolls that are near the top of the ranks like the Phillies: Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Angels, Cubs, Mets and White Sox. Do any of them ever make a deal to bring in prospects, especially coming off a year when they just weren’t good enough?

NO! They want to win now. The Yankees went as far as improving their rotation by bringing in Javier Vazquez. The Red Sox brought in John Lackey. At the deadline and all but eliminated last year, the White Sox brought in Jake Peavy to help them contend later.

This brings two more interesting thoughts:

- If Cliff Lee HAD to be dealt…and I mean HAAAAAAAAD to be dealt, why did it have to be done on the same day as the Halladay deal? In a year that had a very weak free agent class for starting pitchers, you couldn’t have done better than a projected relief pitcher and a fourth outfielder? Amaro made this deal right away because of the backlash that he knew was coming. Fans would be much quicker to remember the loss of Lee by looking at the headline on the opposite page that reads “PHILLIES ACQUIRE HALLADAY”.

Imagine the backlash had he pulled the trigger on a Lee deal a month later. Seems like the easy way out.

- The general consensus of people who back this trade (keep in mind, people who back it still baffle me), was that Lee was not going to resign, so it was a “smart move.” How are fans so certain of this? Lee himself said that he was shocked he was traded and that they had just begun preliminary contract talks.

If that is the answer to why you HAD to trade Cliff Lee, then why is Jayson Werth still on the roster going into this year? He is in the last year of a deal and in line for a huge raise as he prepares to enter free agency next winter. Under those circumstances, shouldn’t Amaro have looked at moving Werth in the off-season too? That way we could have even more prospects. Teams in the Phillies position should not be in the business of moving All-Stars out of town via trades.

Fans are quick to love Amaro, but he is no Pat Gillick. Like I said on Tuesday, Amaro inherited a World Series champion with a deep farm system. Ownership has let the payroll increase on a yearly basis. While bringing in Roy Halladay was simply awesome, this might be the deal that Amaro is most remembered for. It really makes you wonder what his plan for the Phillies is.

What happens when come mid- to late-July, the Phillies decide they need another starter. It is no secret, pitching costs more in July than it does any other time of the year. Will Amaro dig into his newly replenished farm system and overpay for a Jason Marquis/Jarrod Washburn-type?

Is the plan to win a World Series or simply contend for an NL crown? The Phillies are the class of the National League. Nobody can doubt that. But in a seven-game series, who would you really take? Our Fightins or the Yankees or Red Sox?

What could Roy Halladay do in the World Series that Cliff Lee didn’t? Now ask yourself this, what could Cliff Lee do in the postseason that Pedro Martinez didn’t?

I understand we want the team to be productive for years to come. But which year is more important right now, 2010 or 2014?

BEERMAN’S GRADE: F

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Beerman’s Report Card: Roy Halladay

Posted by Nick "Beerman" Staskin, Tue, March 02, 2010 08:32 AM

PHILLIES TRADE FOR ROY HALLADAY AND SIGN HIM TO 3YR/$60 MILLION DOLLAR EXTENSION

Little by little Twitter feeds were buzzing.

Little by little local media reported seeing Roy Halladay in Center City with his agent.

Little by little different players were thought to be part of a mega-trade to bring in Halladay.

And then it was official. It took a couple days, but finally Roy Halladay was sporting red pinstripes.

For the price of prized prospects Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor and Travis d’Arnaud, Ruben Amaro had brought in Doc. RAJ proceeded to sign Halladay to a three-year $60 million dollar extension, with a $20 million dollar vesting option.

Sure the prospects seemed hefty, namely Drabek. But at best Drabek could be a stud, and that was depending on who you asked. Others had the youngster as a number 3. You always go with the sure thing.

It’s no secret, I’m not a big Amaro guy. He had a World Series champion handed to him with one of the top farm systems in baseball. You can’t walk into a better scenario.

But this was his deal to make, and he brought in one of the top pitchers in baseball. He then proceeded to lock up his investment at a below-market deal, ensuring he wouldn’t be paying for a man in 2016 that was not the pitcher he traded for in 2009. This was a perfect trade. Hell, Toronto even threw in $6 million bucks.

Could the deal have been made in July? Maybe, but it would have cost more and perhaps Halladay’s desire to play in Philadelphia wouldn’t have been as strong; and he wouldn’t have agreed to a contract in which he left somewhere between $50-60 million on the table had he opted to become a free agent after this year.

I won’t get into the deal that happened to coincide with this as that’s another story. This is about the new ace.

How much should we expect out of the new top gun? Well…

• Halladay’s never lost more than 11 games in a season.
• Since 2005, Halladay has only had one year with an ERA over 3.20
• In 287 career starts, Halladay has thrown 49 complete games. One every 5.8 starts.
• During the last two seasons, Halladay has walked just 1.38 batters every 9 innings.

I can give you stats for days. And I’m sure that you could give me stats for days. In the National League, facing 8 batters a game instead of 9? The possibilities are endless.

Halladay will keep the ball in the ballpark, keep the ball on the ground and gives you a stopper that doesn’t come around very often. Halladay is in the same breath as Tim Lincecum, CC Sabathia and Johan Santana. I’m not going to rank them as any baseball fan would be foolish to not want any of them on his team. Each can give you something different. But doesn’t it feel damn good to have one of them on your team? Now if you compare the contracts that Sabathia and Santana have, and the massive one that Lincecum is going to sign and the deal that Amaro inked Doc to…good job, Rubes.

It didn’t take long for the Halladay jerseys and t-shirts to start flying off the shelves. The last time a player brought this sort of excitement to Philadelphia upon his immediate arrival was Jim Thome, and that was because we hadn’t seen a big name come to town in forever. While “he who shall not be named” brought a buzz with him last season, it was nothing compared to Doc.

Now here is a question to ask yourself: as excited as you were when they brought in Halladay, how much of it was deflated by the second part of that eventful day? Just a thought, because we all know the other shoe did drop…

BEERMAN’S GRADE A+

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Beerman’s Report Card: Danys Baez

Posted by Nick "Beerman" Staskin, Tue, February 23, 2010 03:39 PM

PHILLIES SIGN DANYS BAEZ TO 2 YR/$5.25 MILLION DOLLAR DEAL

The loose bolt in the 2009 Phillies arsenal was the bullpen. Call it the curse of the MLB Network, but the stars of The Pen did not live up to the standard they had set in 2008.

In this off season, Chan Ho Park made the decision to pass on the Phillies’ offer (turned out the joke was on him) and Clay Condrey was let go; so other arms had to be brought in.

RAJ looked in the direction of men who had experience closing yet refused to bid Ed Wade-like contracts. The Brandon Lyon signing is the worst contract I can remember in a long time. Fernando Rodney was not worth the money he signed for either.  After the dust settled, it was Danys Baez who was set to join the bullpen. Keep in mind, Baez hasn’t been a closer since 2005, so those thinking he can step up if Lidge falters again shouldn’t get their hopes up.

At $5.25 million over two years, the dollars aren’t overwhelming. Was it necessary to sign Baez to a two-year deal considering he missed all of 2008? Eh, maybe not. If the deal was for more money, the years would be a bigger issue; so it is still a low-risk level contract considering the dollars. However if J.C. Romero can’t return to the form that earned him his own multi-year deal, there is a lot of risk in the role that I think Baez is going to be asked to fulfill.

Last year, Baez rebounded from an abysmal 2007 season, in which he posted an 0-6 record with a 6.44 ERA and 1.57 WHIP to go along with 1:1 BB:K ratio by posting a 4-6 clip in 59 games with a 4.02 ERA and a very good 1.13 WHIP.

The strikeouts haven’t been there for Baez over the past few seasons though, and that is a factor that could lead to some problems. When your relievers are putting too many balls into play, nothing good normally comes of it.

Was last year’s 1.13 WHIP a product of good placement of his pitches or was his .232 BAbip luck? Maybe 2006’s .305 BAbip just bad luck?

Baez isn’t going to light the world on fire as he hasn’t had an ERA under 4.00 since 2005, but if he can perform like last year he could definitely fill a prominent role in the bullpen. Just a matter of which Baez did Amaro lock up for two years…

BEERMAN’S GRADE: C

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Beerman’s Report Card: Jose Contreras

Posted by Nick "Beerman" Staskin, Tue, February 16, 2010 11:25 AM

PHILLIES SIGN JOSE CONTRERAS TO 1YR/$1.5 MILLION DOLLAR DEAL

Last off-season when the Phillies brought in Chan Ho Park it raised a lot of questions. Park was originally signed to be the number 5 in the rotation, but wound up excelling out of the bullpen.  Personally, I would have loved to see him back in the red pinstripes, but he obviously priced himself out of the budget asking for close to $5 million and stating his desire to start.

This winter, Ruben Amaro brought in Jose Contreras to fill that role out of the bullpen with the understanding that he might be an insurance policy for some spot starts.  Yet for the most part, he will be starting games in the bullpen.

Prior to getting traded to the Rockies late last season, Contreras struggled mightily in the White Sox rotation. It is no secret that his best days are behind him; however he should still prove to be a solid arm out of the pen.

The sample size is too small to garner any real ideas of what we can expect to see out of the bullpen from the righty; nonetheless, he did manage to strike out 106 batters in 131.2 IP.

The main reason this deal works is the length. A one-year deal at close to pennies on the dollar for an experienced arm gives you extreme low-risk, high-reward potential – much like the Pedro signing last season. If Contreras can’t hang, it’s easy to release him and cut your losses. However, should he manage to provide a spark out of the pen for an inning or two at a time – like Park did – then for $1.5 million you found a real contribution to the team that you can reevaluate after the season.

I might have higher hopes than I should for Contreras, but I’m expecting something along the lines of 3.75 ERA with about 80 Ks over about 100 innings or so.

BEERMAN’S GRADE: B

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Beerman’s Report Card: Placido Polanco Signing

Posted by Nick "Beerman" Staskin, Thu, February 11, 2010 07:00 AM

Beerman’s Report Card will be a biweekly series that will run up to Spring Training. We will look at the signings, resignings and trades that were orchestrated by Ruben Amaro, Jr. this off-season. They will be no particular order; however check back every Tuesday and Thursday for new entries.

PHILLIES SIGN PLACIDO POLANCO TO 3YR/$18 MILLION CONTRACT

Peter Gammons kind of stole my thunder with this one: Where was the market for a 34-year old second baseman with a .727 OPS to play third base on a multi-year deal?

With one of the first free agent signings in baseball this winter, Ruben Amaro jumped the gun to get his man. Seemingly outbidding himself (much like he did last year with the Raul Ibanez signing), he threw three years at a player on the decline of his career. After a hot start, we remember how quickly Ibanez came back down to Earth. And for those who don’t, just wait until Jayson Werth explores free agency after this season…but that’s another story.

Having looked at Polanco’s batting average in years prior, many people were quick to welcome him back to the City of Brotherly Love. However, those numbers may cause those same people to overlook Polanco’s rapid decline the past three seasons in Detroit:

- 2007: .341 BA .388 OBP .458 SLG .846 OPS

- 2008: .307 BA .350 OBP .417 SLG .768 OPS

- 2009: .285 BA .331 OBP .396 SLG .727 OPS

Compare those numbers to Pedro Feliz, the man who held down the hot corner for the last two seasons. The man who was given his walking papers almost immediately following this year’s World Series.

- 2009: .266 BA .308 OBP .386 SLG .694 OPS

Did Polanco really deserve a three-year deal with a $5.5 million dollar option for a fourth? The deal guarantees $19 million total to Polanco and seemingly shifts Shane Victorino down to either the sixth or seventh spot in the lineup. A spot where not only could his speed be wasted, but the bat could be taken out of either Vic’s or Ibanez’s hands for a lot of intentional walks to get to Carlos Ruiz.

That doesn’t even scratch the defensive side of this contract. Feliz manned a very solid third base, while Polanco hasn’t played the spot since 2005. This isn’t first base where old men go to pasture when they are moved from their natural spot. This is one of the most demanding positions in baseball.

During his tenure in Philadelphia, Feliz had an UZR rating (the number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined) of 5.3 in 2009 and an NL-high 7.2 in 2008. Easy translation: he was well-above average at third. Can we expect anything more than an average glove out of Polanco? Polanco’s glove has never been an issue at second, but how smoothly will that transition go moving over to third?

It really comes down to two simple questions: Do you think Polanco can rebound to his 2007 and 2008 years? Or do you think as he gets older, his numbers will continue to slide?

One week later, former Phillies GM and collector of Phillies-past, Ed Wade signed Feliz to a one-year, $4.5 million dollar deal.

Personally, I’d take another year of Feliz at less than $5 million, than three years of Polanco at what amounts to at least $19 million. Especially after all we’ve heard about working under a budget, and the elephant in the room in right field that is set to explore free agency rather quickly.

BEERMAN’S GRADE: C-

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Beerman’s Report Card: Carlos Ruiz Signing

Posted by Nick "Beerman" Staskin, Tue, February 09, 2010 09:39 AM

Beerman’s Report Card will be a biweekly series that will run up to Spring Training. We will look at the signings, resignings and trades that were orchestrated by Ruben Amaro, Jr. this offseason. They will be no particular order; however check back every Tuesday and Thursday for new entries.

SIGNING CARLOS RUIZ TO 3 YR/$8.85 MILLION EXTENSION

When details of this contract extension first sprung, I really thought Chooch had parlayed a solid postseason into a three-year deal. To the initial eye, it looked like Amaro might have bid against himself, something he has done during his GM tenure before. However, like any responsible blogger/columnist/beerman, whatever you want to call me, I did my homework. Broke down some numbers. Compared some stats. Examined some contracts.

Ruiz will never be Joe Mauer. Hell, Carlos will never be Brian McCann. However, his on base percentage ranked third among full-time catchers in the National League at .355. Did you know that his .355 clip ranked higher than Raul Ibanez last year? Factor in the mere 39 strikeouts that Chooch accounted for and it is clear to see that the Phillies bottom of the order had a bat that could get the ball in play and help turn the lineup over.

However, it wasn’t Ruiz’s bat that garnered his new multi-millionaire status. Not many catchers in baseball can command a pitching staff like Ruiz can. Chooch can block the plate with the best of them, allowing only one ball to pass by him last season.

When it comes to holding runners, Ruiz allowed the fewest stolen bases of any catcher who started 100 games with 61 swipes allowed. He managed to throw out 23 attempted base runners as well.

In an era where the top catchers are seemingly going nowhere, and after trading away any and all catching prospects that they might have had, the Phillies locked up a very solid piece of the team at a very fair rate.

BEERMAN’S GRADE ON RUIZ RESIGNING: A-

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Top Moment No. 8: NL East Champs

Posted by Nick "Beerman" Staskin, Tue, January 12, 2010 01:13 PM

Top Moment #8: Phillies Clinch National League East

It didn’t have the drama of the two NL East titles that came prior. The Mets weren’t busy blowing leads. There was no miraculous double play. Hell, it didn’t even make it to the final weekend of the season.

2009 was a different year. The Phillies had built up a big enough lead that on a Wednesday night on the last day of September, they had a chance to pop the bubbly and sport some new hats and t-shirts.

The only real question as the night progressed was whether or not the Phillies would take care of business themselves or if the Braves were going to finish off the Florida Marlins first. After falling behind early, the Phillies finally pulled ahead 5-3 in the fourth inning and never looked back. Cue in a couple Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino triples, add in a Raul Ibanez bomb and all of a sudden it was 10-3 in the 7th inning.

However, then things got interesting. The Phillies game and the Braves game almost fell into a dead heat, going out for out.

During the past two NL East titles though, the Phillies had always clinched on their own. This year, the scoreboard operators would make sure that tradition continued. Suddenly, there were no updates coming of the Braves-Marlins game.

And with two outs in the ninth, Charlie Manuel went to the bullpen despite the game not being in question. Feeling as if he owed his much-beleaguered closer the opportunity to finish it off, Manuel brought in Brad Lidge to finish off his old team and bring the Phillies their third straight division championship.

A few fans in the stadium had their phones out and had seen the Marlins had already lost and the division was already won, but it felt better this way.

It felt better celebrating in front of the Harry Kalas tribute sign in left center. It felt better hearing the crowd erupt for a third straight division title considering prior to 2007, we hadn’t won one in 14 years.

It just felt better this way.

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Top Moment No. 11: NLDS Game One

Posted by Nick "Beerman" Staskin, Wed, January 06, 2010 11:09 AM

Top Moment #11: Cliff Lee’s Complete Game in NLDS

Gone, but not forgotten Cliff Lee.

Game One of the NLDS was time for the Phillies big midseason acquisition to show his value. After faltering down the stretch, Lee was handed the ball to start the NLDS against the Rockies. He did not disappoint.

Lee brought a shutout into the 9th inning and finished with five strikeouts, six hits and zero walks en route to a complete game. We would come to expect these types of big-time outings from Cliff.

The 24 mph winds were no match for the Phillies bats, that put together 12 hits that afternoon. All five of the Phillies runs came without a single homerun. After being knocked for their lack of timely hitting in the postseason over the past few seasons, including 2008 World Series run, the Phils went 4-11 with runners in scoring position.

With a 5-1 victory over the Rockies in the book, the Phillies jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the short series. A very different scenario than 2007 to say the least.

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Top Moment No. 16: HK’s Last Call

Posted by Nick "Beerman" Staskin, Tue, December 29, 2009 08:57 AM

Top Moment #16: Stairs Homers for Harry’s Last Home Run Call

It wasn’t until April 13th that the great Harry Kalas passed away. However, it was April 12th that we last heard his beautiful voice.

With the Phillies on the verge of falling to 2-4 to start the season, Chase Utley hit a 2-run home run off of Manny Corpas to tie the game.

It wasn’t that long ball that will be long remembered in Philadelphia, though. It was the 2-run pinch home run that Matt Stairs delivered in the top of the 9th inning off of Huston Street to win it. This would be the last home run call that the great Harry Kalas would ever deliver.

Brad Lidge came in to close out the game with a scoreless bottom of the ninth. When Chan Ho Park’s Phillies debut didn’t go as planned, 5 ER in 3.1 IP, the combination of Chad Durbin, Scott Eyre, Clay Condrey, Ryan Madson and Lidge put together 5.2 innings of 2-hit, shutout baseball to keep the Phillies in it.

But as stated before, it won’t be Utley’s game-tying home run that we remember…nor will it be the great effort of the bullpen on that frigid Denver afternoon. It will be Harry Kalas giving us one last “Outta Here.”

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Top Moment No. 21: Happ Shuts Out Rockies

Posted by Nick "Beerman" Staskin, Thu, December 10, 2009 10:24 AM

Throughout the month, Phillies Nation will be counting down the Top 25 Phillies Moments of 2009.

Top Moment #21: JA Happ Shuts Out Colorado, Solidifies Spot in Rotation

Going into the Phillies game against the Rockies on August 5, there were some questions surrounding the last two spots in the Phillies rotation. Jamie Moyer, JA Happ and Pedro Martinez were all vying for those two coveted spots.

So what did JA Happ do? Only threw nine shutout innings, allowed a mere four hits and struck ten batters in his second complete game shutout of the season. Throwing 127 pitches, Happ proved to Charlie Manuel he had the arm to go the distance in big games down the stretch.

Pedro went on to strike out 11 down in Reading, and it was Happ and Martinez in the rotation and Jamie Moyer off to the bullpen thanks in part to one August night.

A game that was never in doubt, was put away with a Jayson Werth three-run bomb in the fifth that ended all scoring for the night. Not that the Phillies needed it… Happ was that good.

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Somebody Has to Say It

Posted by Nick "Beerman" Staskin, Fri, November 06, 2009 11:59 AM

The immediate days after the World Series were surely more fun last year.

At the same time, losing hurt a lot more in 1993. So I guess it’s true: winning is the easiest cure for losing. Had the Phillies not beat the Rays last season, I’d probably be beside myself after a loss like Wednesday night.

Now I know that I might take some heat for this column. People might not like what I have to say, but sometimes you have to make a point rather than try to win a popularity contest.

In a world where Facebook statuses and Twitter updates are up-to-the-second with what is going on, everybody is entitled to their opinion. Yet, that doesn’t mean everybody’s opinion is correct. It also doesn’t mean mine is correct either, so take it with a grain of salt.

Midway through Wednesday night’s disappointment, I pulled out my phone and read how people were bitching on FB and Twitter and the general consensus was “must be nice to buy a championship” or “at least we bring up our own players.”

I’d like to think it’s that easy, but let’s be real. The better team won. If it was that easy to “buy a championship” how come the Yankees hadn’t won since 2000? Hell, how come they hadn’t been to a World Series since 2003? Sure New York went out and spent $423 million dollars last off-season, but how much of that money really beat our beloved Phillies this past week?

C.C. Sabathia 0-1 3.29 ERA 13.2 IP 11 H 6 BB 12K

A.J. Burnett: 1-1 7.00 ERA 9 IP 8 H 6 BB 11 K

Mark Teixeira: .136 AVG 3/22 1 HR 3 RBI

The Phillies lost to the likes of Derek Jeter and his 11 hits, along with Johnny Damon with his base running and killer at-bats. Hideki Matsui and his all-world performance in only three starts. Mariano Rivera and his….well he’s just that damn good.

To go along with that, the Phillies lost because Ryan Howard went 4-23. Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino hit a combined .200. Solo homeruns don’t win games. Cole Hamels just couldn’t get it going this postseason and the World Series was no different.

When you draw 26 walks and only score 27 runs, something didn’t go right. The Phillies leading hitter this World Series was Carlos Ruiz batting out of the eight and nine hole. This leads me to my biggest culprit this series: Charlie Manuel.

If you are a Manuel lover, now is the time to move to a different posting on this website. Sure, Charlie doesn’t play on the team so his role in the loss can’t be measured in batting average, runs scored or earned run average. When certain people are hitting and others aren’t, it’s not that hard to juggle a lineup and change things up a bit. The Yankees left-handed pitchers completely owned Ryan Howard this series. Why not Howard move to fifth and let Werth hit clean up against the lefties? Why not move Chooch up in the order? Why not split up the struggling combination of Rollins and Victorino to get some men on base for Utley? Manuel’s poor management of this series can sure lead you to second guess a lot of things that happened over the course of the six games.

Game One – Despite having a 6-0 lead, Manuel sent Cliff Lee back out for the ninth inning. In any short series, it isn’t hard to know that your best pitcher is most valuable when you can use him in as many games as possible. Had Lee come out of the game with a comfortable lead, the possibility of pitching him on three days of rest to set up another date with Sabathia in Game Four could have been a more realistic possibility. Instead, Lee went back out, finished the game, labored a bit in the ninth and threw 122 pitches in the opening game.

Game Two – This game featured the the infamous decision not to start the runners before what turned out to be an inning-ending double play by Chase Utley. Manuel then lambasted Tim McCarver for suggesting that he might have made the wrong decision. I’m not a big McCarver fan, but this time he’s right. When playing from behind against the greatest closer ever, you can’t play scared – you have to play aggressive. If you start the runners and Utley hits a line-drive it’s a double play. However, if you don’t start them and Utley hits a hard groundball (like he did) it’s the same double play. The call might have been blown, but the inning before New York was on the short end of the stick – so that evened out. Had Charlie started the runners, the Phillies would have had men on 2nd and 3rd for Ryan Howard with two outs in a two-run game. We’ll never know…

Game Three – A lot went wrong for the Phillies on Saturday night. However a few big spots stick out. Up 2-0 and with Andy Pettitte on the ropes, would it have been that hard for Manuel to send a “take” sign to Sam Perlozzo before Victorino’s at-bat in the second inning? Rollins had just drawn a quick walk and Victorino was swinging out of his shoes on the next two pitches. Victorino managed to save face with a sacrifice fly, but imagine if he was a bit more patient at the plate and gets the hit that changes the game. This one isn’t all Charlie; I’m just pointing it out.

My biggest gripe with Manuel in this game was using Eric Bruntlett as his sixth-inning pinch hitter with a man on and two outs. Down 6-4, Manuel decided to save Ben Francisco for an opportunity that never came and went with Bruntlett – who had 18 more hits than I did this season – against Pettitte. A fly ball ended the inning and any chance at a rally to tie the game.

Game Four – Not starting Cliff Lee, who had said he would have started on three days rest might have been the beginning of the end for the Phillies. Joe Blanton pitched good enough to keep the team in the game, but if you are going to trade for the difference-making ace in midseason, don’t you have to use him every chance you get? Look at C.C. and his workload the past two years. Pedro Feliz bailed out this poor decision (another decision that Manuel took offense to in post game press conferences, may I remind you) with a home run to tie the game in the bottom of the eighth. However, it was the ninth inning that made this a 3-1 Yankees series lead.

Some people questioned bringing in Brad Lidge to start the ninth. I had no issues with it. I thought he had earned the right with his performance last year as well as his performance throughout the playoffs this year. But when Johnny Damon got on base, everybody in the Delaware Valley knew he was taking second base. Lidge couldn’t keep base runners on all year and this situation was no different. How could a pitchout have not been an option? Let’s rewind first though. Before the two-bag steal, Manuel called for an infield shift that we all know left 3rd base unattended. I can count on my hands the amount of times that the Phils used this shift this year, so not sure why he thought it was a good idea in this spot against Tex. Why do it with two-outs and a man on first? A single doesn’t beat you there. No pitchout, shift in place, we all know what happens next…man on third, Lidge’s slider seemingly a liability should it get in the dirt, a fat fastball to A-Rod, and a Posada double all add up to a 7-4 loss that will not soon be forgotten.

Game Five – The questionable calls by Manuel on Monday night wound up being all-for-nothing as Game 7 never happened, however they sure made you think. Again with a six-run lead, Manuel sent Cliff Lee out to the mound in the seventh when conservation was key. “The Jeweler” as my friends and I like to call Lee (because he deals in gems) got into trouble to start the inning and had to be pulled. Also in the eventful eighth inning, Charlie pulled out Victorino due to his sore hand. Whenever Shane had to come out during the regular season, Werth moved to centerfield. Instead, it was Francisco who went to center and Werth stayed in right. I think we all remember the throw to the plate that Francisco attempted to make. The Phils went on to win the game, but it just kept bringing more and more questions to mind about what was going on in Charlie’s head during the series.

Game Six was the one game the Phillies were never really in. I’m not pinning this one on Charlie or pointing out any of his judgmental shortcomings for Wednesday night. One team showed up to play, the other didn’t.

Like I said, it is easy to point fingers at anybody over a tough loss; and while Hamels and Lidge struggled on the mound and Howard along with almost the entire offense struggled at the plate, Charlie Manuel labored from his spot on the steps. Last year, I thought Joe Maddon outmanaged Manuel, but the Phillies were the better team so it wasn’t as big a factor. This year, the Phillies couldn’t afford to have that same luxury.

I’m not asking for Charlie’s head. Far from it. Managers make mistakes throughout the course of the season, and when you win three division titles and two pennants in a row those mistakes are quickly forgotten. However, over the span of a six-game series to end the season, mistakes made will stick out like sore thumbs and will be remembered all winter long.

Yet too many people were giving the skipper a free pass and I know I’ll take some heat from this on the comments page. You can agree or disagree to those point, but I think we can all agree on a couple things:

• The Phillies are still the class of the National League. One day after the season ended, the Phillies have to be the favorites to get back to the World Series. They are more complete top-to-bottom than any of their competitors in the Senior Circuit.
• Decisions have to be made. Pedro Feliz, Pedro Martinez, Chan Ho Park and Brett Myers are the four biggest question marks when talking about who comes back and who walks away. Who would you bring back?
• While Hamels and Lidge had rough seasons, getting Hamels back to form is the biggest priority in the off-season. If Lidge doesn’t have it, there are other closing options – not only on the current roster, but others that will be available during the course of next season. However, there aren’t many pitchers who have showed the capabilities that Hamels has juts hanging around. If Cole can get back to 2008 form, the 1-2 punch of Lee and Hamels can be a knockout. But if Cole can’t find that form that put the ’08 Phillies over the top, it leaves a lot of people wondering what to do with the former World Series MVP.

Here’s to a helluva season….95 days until pitchers and catchers report.

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Playoff Preview: Time to Tap the Rockies

Posted by Nick "Beerman" Staskin, Tue, October 06, 2009 11:10 AM

The real defense of the Phillies World Series crown begins Wednesday afternoon. While only one game separated the Phils and Rockies in the win/loss column this season, we decided to dig a little deeper and uncover just how close the matchup is.

The Phils finished first in the National League in runs scored with 820 or 5.06 runs per game. Colorado, however was second in the NL with 804 runs, 4.96 runs per game. Close. Some of the numbers are actually scary close.

• Philadelphia: 1,439 Hits; 224 HR; 788 RBI; .258 BA; .334 OBP; .447 SLG; .781 OPS
• Colorado: 1,408 Hits; 190 HR; 760 RBI; .261 BA; .343 OBP; .441 SLG; .784 OPS

While the Phillies have more star power on offense, the Rockies production is not far off.

The pitching numbers favor the Phillies, albeit by a very small advantage.

• Philadelphia: 4.16 ERA; 44 SV; 673 ER; 489 BB; 1153 K; .265 BA Against
• Colorado: 4.22 ERA; 45 SV; 675 ER; 528 BB; 1154 K; .251 BA Against

Looking at the fielding percentages of these two 90+ win teams and both are within .001 percentage points! Another small advantage for the Phillies – they come in as the second best defensive team in Major League Baseball with only 76 errors (fielding at a .987 clip).

Therefore, the only way to really break down this series – one that a lot of Phillies fans, myself included do not think is that close on paper – is to go through this position by position.

CATCHER

Carlos Ruiz is coming off the best offensive season of his young career. While some of his numbers in 2007 were a bit higher, this year Ruiz had his biggest impact on the Phillies lineup. Ruiz saw his numbers skyrocket after the All Star Break. Post mid-July, Chooch hit .276 with an .862 OPS with 25 RBI. By comparison, Chase Utley hit .246/.790 with 32 post All-Star Break RBIs.

In Colorado, Yorvit Torrealba started the season as the backup to Chris Iannetta. However, by the end of the season the roles were reversed. As a solid contact hitter, Torrealba can give some of the Phillies location pitchers a problem. One liability would be his arm. Carlos Ruiz throws runners out at nearly twice the rate of Torrealba which may give Phillies speedsters the opportunity to stretch singles and walks in to scoring position.

Slight Edge Phillies

INFIELD

Ryan Howard is coming off another monster season where he once again shouldered the load in August and September. While Howard’s on-base percentage still lacks for a player of his caliber, his defense improved this season, he continued to drive in runs (four straight years of 136 RBI+) and he stayed durable in season where injuries definitely maligned the Phillies.

Todd Helton is a solid player who is past his prime, but if you are putting players up against each other, he is not much of a comparison to Howard. His numbers were all down from his career averages, however at 36 years old .325/86 RBI/.416 OBP/.489 slugging is still pretty impressive.

Edge Phillies

Second base is more or less the same cakewalk for the Phillies. While Chase Utley has struggled through the month of September, I’m willing to bank on the All-Star getting it back together in October. Utley’s glove brings an intangible that can’t be measured (well it can, if you understand all those range statistics or listen to the latest podcast) and his range is second to none in my book. Rockies second baseman Clint Barmes has some pop in his bat, slugging 23 homers this year, but at a .245 clip and a 4:1 K to BB ratio, he can’t compare to Utley; not the least of which because he also tries get greedy on the base paths. In 22 attempts this year, Barmes was only successful 12 times; Utley was of course perfect in 23 attempts.

Major Edge Phillies

Shortstop is the one infield position that gives an advantage to the Rox. It’s a small one, but Troy Tulowitzki is a stud. Tulo had a season for the ages at the shortstop position that went much unnoticed. On the other hand, Jimmy Rollins had a season that was down from what we all know he is capable of. Rollins did rebound in the second half, but Tulowitzki had a very J-Roll-in-his-prime-type year, coming into the post season at .297/32 HR/92 RBI/101 R/20 SB. Furthermore, Tulowitzki is one of the only shortstops who can make the plays that Jimmy can. J-Roll’s glove was a little better this year, but this is a match-up of two of the best fielding shortstops in baseball. Don’t expect too many balls to get through up the middle this week.

Slight Edge Rockies

At third base, it’s Pedro Feliz over the combination of Ian Stewart and Chase Utley’s best man, Garret Atkins. We will probably see more of Atkins since the Phillies will be starting lefties for the majority of the series in Hamels, Lee and possibly Happ. However, both struggled to hit a combined .227 this season. Feliz was one of the Phillies who flew under the radar this season providing some pop at the bottom of the lineup along with Carlos Ruiz. His 82 RBIs provided some run support and his defensive range, while a little down this year, is still solid at the hot corner.

Slight Edge Phillies

OUTFIELD

The Phillies start three All-Stars in the outfield. The Rockies start two youngsters and Brad Hawpe. On another note, all three Rockies outfielders are left-handed. It seems we always hear a lot about the amount of left-handed bats in the Phils lineup but the trio of Hawpe, Carlos Gonzalez and Seth Smith in the outfield could be in for trouble and could lead Jim Tracy to turn to Ryan Spilborghs and Dexter Fowler.

Raul Ibanez seems to have righted his ship, while Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth coasted into the postseason. Regardless, on paper you have to play the outfield as a huge advantage to the Phillies.

One concern for the Phillies could be Werth’s inability to front constant production against right-handed pitchers. Odds are Colorado will start three righties over the course of the series. Werth struck out 123 times against RH pitchers this season and slugged .457 compared to .644 vs. lefties.

Major Edge Phillies

PITCHING

As Tuesday morning, Charlie Manuel hadn’t set a Game One starter. I’m hoping he leans towards Cole Hamels. While Lee had an amazing start to his Phillies career, over the last month-and-a-half the word pedestrian might be an over-exaggeration, as he posted an ERA over 6.00 in his last seven starts.

Hamels has been there, winning three game ones during last year’s World Series march. In what was definitely an underachieving season for the southpaw, Hamels nonetheless showed signs of what he is capable of from time to time. Whether it’s Hamels or Lee in Game One, they will be going up against Ubaldo Jimenez on Wednesday.

Whoever doesn’t get the start on Wednesday will most likely be going up against Aaron Cook in Game Two on Thursday. Cook made only nine starts after the All-Star Break, barely averaging five innings per outing while opponents hit him at a .296 pace. Any baseball expert is going with Lee and Hamels (or Hamels and Lee whichever it is) over Jimenez and Cook.

Game Three is another situation, as neither team has announced its third starter yet. However, if Jorge De La Rosa is back from injury, one would think he gets the nod.

Who Manuel tabs for Game Three is still a bit of a mystery. If the Phillies are up 2-0 in the series, I think its Joe Blanton. If the series is tied or if the Phillies find themselves trailing, I think it is J.A. Happ. While I’m a big J. Bleazy guy, he did struggle down the stretch. On the other hand, it was against the Rox that Happ put together his 10-K, complete game shutout this August. Either way, it leaves the Phillies in a good situation for a potential Game Four or Five if necessary.

Major Edge Phillies

The bullpen is a different story. The Phillies battled a combination of injuries and inabilities all season long in the bullpen. The Rockies, got as good a season out of their closer, Huston Street, as possible. Street converted 35 of 37 save opportunities this year and had a minuscule WHIP of 0.91.

There is no need to write about the struggles of Brad Lidge here, because any Phillies Nation reader is well aware of them. Interestingly enough, it sure seems like Manuel is going with Lidge when the game is on the line. As heartbreaking as all of those blown saves were this season, none will hold a candle to what a postseason blown save could feel like. Is Manuel being too loyal to last year’s team MVP? Probably, but he’s earned that right.

I’m going with the rest of the Rockies bullpen over the patchwork pen the Phillies will bring to the table when the roster is finalized. Perhaps if healthy, the Phillies would get the edge, but with Scott Eyre being the only lefty out of the pen that I trust, it is a troublesome matchup. I do like the addition of Pedro Martinez to the bullpen. Pedro is big time and in the postseason you want big time. If the game is on the line, it will be nice to have Martinez available to come in for a few innings rather than piecing it together.

Edge Rockies

SERIES PREDICTION

While the Phillies didn’t have the strongest end to the season, it is tough not to like them in this series. Philadelphia won the season series 4-2, taking both series this in 2-1 fashion. I really don’t see the Phillies losing at home with Hamels or Lee going unless it comes down to a blown save of some sort. With everything tied together, I’m going with the PHILLIES IN 4.

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Keep the Change: Tales from the Aisles

Posted by Nick "Beerman" Staskin, Fri, July 24, 2009 03:33 PM

We are one week away from Major League Baseball’s July 31st trade deadline. With seven days to go, the big name still fluttering around the rumor mill is Roy Halladay. On top of that, it was recently heard that Ruben Amaro has pulled the tag “untouchable” off of Kyle Drabek’s nameplate…what does this mean?

I’m not sure. However, I do think there are other areas of need: Specifically a right-handed bat off the bench, maybe a utility infielder and the always needed bullpen help.

Chad Durbin and J.C. Romero to the DL

Personally, I didn’t mind these two going on the disabled list too much. When Durbin is in and it is a big spot, it seems like it is only because the guys you want in there can’t go. And as for Romero, he simply couldn’t throw strikes.

In his 15.2 innings pitched since coming back from his suspension, Romero has walked 13 batters and only struck out 12. On top of that, the former left-handed specialist saw lefties hitting him at a .292 clip. Last year, left-handed bats hit a paltry .108 against him.

Hopefully two weeks away from the scene can fix any arm problems he might have, and J.C. can get back to the form that helped lock down the end of ball games last year.

Patchwork

While the two relievers mend their injuries, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Phillies made a move that flew a bit under the giving up the farm radar. With names like George Sherrill, Danys Baez and Chad Qualls floating around the news tap, there are many arms to be had.

Last year, the Phillies struck gold with Scott Eyre after the deadline had passed. Look for a similar type deal to go down shortly, one that doesn’t give up a top prospect for a player who will fill a role that will probably be unappreciated until its time to look back at the deals that made the biggest difference.

Takin’ to the seats

Over the past week, I polled 100 random fans I served beer to with two different questions. What would your response be?

What is the biggest reason for the Phillies latest hot streak?

1. Jimmy Rollins turnaround – 55%
2. Quality starting pitching – 31%
3. Return of Raul Ibanez – 8%
4. No reason at all – 6%

Guess it’s the old saying, as Rollins goes, so do the Phillies.

Would you give up Kyle Drabek, J.A. Happ and Michael Taylor for Roy Halladay?

1. Yes – 71%
2. No – 29%

Seven out of ten people pull the trigger…I’m still not sure if I do. One way or another, I won’t be upset. But that doesn’t mean I won’t be looking into the rumor mills on an hourly basis.

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Keep The Change: Home, Sweet Home

Posted by Nick "Beerman" Staskin, Fri, July 10, 2009 02:00 PM

Now this is a homestand. Winning games late. Coming back in games. Holding onto leads. This is reminiscent of 2008.

With the Pittsburgh Pirates coming into town this weekend, the Phillies have a chance to go 10 games over .500 heading into the All-Star Break, and a realistic opportunity at a 9-1 home stand. A far cry from the last time the World Champs were at home.

But what’s changed?

Rollins is rolling

Last week, I was set to pose the question of what you would do right now with Jimmy Rollins. He responded so quick that the question never got the chance to be raised.

Rollins steamrolled through the Mets and has hit safely in every game on the homestand. His average is up 18 points since the start of last Friday’s game, and Rollins has scored seven runs during the same stretch.

We’ve heard it and seen it before: as Rollins goes, so do the Phillies. Well Rollins is “going” and the Phightins are winning. Go figure.

Werth it

While kudos go out to Shane Victorino on snagging the last All-Star spot, I’m not sure I wouldn’t have looked over to right field for the second most-deserving Phillies outfielder.

Even prior to Werth’s four-game homer streak, he is putting up numbers that deserved to be recognized. Despite his average of .268, Werth has 20 home runs to go along with 12 stolen bases 54 runs, 59 RBI and an on-base percentage of .373.

To put that in perspective, he is tracking: .268, 117 R, 40 HR, 107 RBI and 24 SB.

Werth is on track to have more homers, runs batted in and runs scored than Ryan Braun, Carlos Lee and Miguel Cabrera.

Pedro and Halladay

With the expected signing of Pedro Martinez and the nonstop Roy Halladay rumors floating throughout Citizens Bank Park, a couple fans asked me what I would do if I was the general manager.

The way I see it, Martinez is a low-risk, high reward deal. I’ll take Martinez over Rodrigo Lopez and Antonio Bastardo any day. If he doesn’t have it, then you go back to the drawing board like you have since Brett Myers went down. If he is serviceable, he might even be an upgrade over the inconsistent Jamie Moyer.

As for Halladay, I don’t care what it costs. You don’t turn any deal down. With no team wanting to step up and seize the National League, the acquisition of Roy Halladay makes the Phillies the hands-down favorite to win the senior circuit. The Dodgers may have the best record in the National League, but I’m not sold on them. The bulk of their wins came when the NL West was awful. With the Giants and Rockies turning their seasons around, the Dodgers are sure to come back down to Earth.

Inserting Doc into the rotation gives the Phillies a 1-2 punch that can’t be touched in the National League — maybe even baseball. Sadly, I think any deal bringing Halladay to Philadelphia almost guarantees the departure of J.A. Happ to Toronto. They want a Major League-ready pitcher as part of the deal. To that I say, thanks for your time Happ, but “smell ya later.”

Here’s hoping the Doctor is in … and soon.

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Keep the Change: Tales from the Aisles

Posted by Nick "Beerman" Staskin, Thu, July 02, 2009 02:03 PM

Well after seven days, six nights, three canceled flights and seven flight delays, The Beerman is back from Las Vegas.

My plane touched down just in time to watch last night’s debacle of a team effort by Cole Hamels and company. I, like you, can only shake my head in despair. What is wrong with the Phillies right now?

From the Road Warriors to the Bushwhackers

A few weeks back we joked that the Phillies were as dominant as the 1990s WWE tag team of Animal and Hawk, however lately the team’s play on the road has been pitiful. With the exception of Tuesday night, the losses on this road trip have been something to forget. Twice, the Phillies have gone late into the game without a sole hit, and four of the team’s five losses have been by five or more runs.

A win tonight can put the team at 4-5 on the nine-game swing; however, I highly doubt that I am the only one who wouldn’t think this trip was nearly as close as the record indicates.

Burning Cole

The job of an ace is to go out and get you a win the day after a loss – to stop the bleeding. When the Yankees were racking up World Series wins in the late 90s, nobody was better at getting a win after a loss than Andy Pettitte. However, during this road trip Cole Hamels has had that opportunity twice. To say he has dropped the ball would be an understatement. You can claim he was squeezed by the umpires, but excuses are like, well the word rhymes with cassmoles, we all have them, and they all stink.

Hamels line during the road trip: 8.2 IP, 13 H, 11 ER, 4 BB and 5K to go along with an 0-2 record.

In fact, in those 8.2 IP, Hamels has thrown 193 pitches. In his complete game shutout of the Dodgers on June 4, he threw 97 pitches. That start was also the only time he has gotten a win in his last six starts.

Jimmy Rollins

I really just don’t know what is wrong with the former MVP. Nothing makes sense. You just can’t forget how to hit, right?

During this upcoming home stand – a HUGE home stand might I add – I will be asking the fans two questions: What do they think is wrong with the Phillies shortstop; and how would they fix it? I will post some of the results in next week’s column.

The Beerman’s Pick of the Week

I’m not much of a shill, but when I find a product I love, I will share it with the readers. Having just bought the new iPhone, I was curious as to what the MLB.Com “At Bat” Application was really about. It seemed like every other inning Chris Wheeler was hawking this mini-commercial. I figured why not, and spent the $9.99 on the application.

Let me tell you, if you are a Phillies fan on the road away from the team, or even just a baseball fan, do yourself a favor and invest the ten dollars.

I was able to sit poolside on my vacation and listen to the Phillies radio feeds during the road-trip, a big treat considering a few of the games weren’t available at the sports books. (By the way, thank you J.A. Happ for Saturday’s shutout…a little +125 action, might I add.) The application puts up all the radio feeds for every game, both the home and away team, and also has one or two live TV feeds of a different game as well.

The best $9.99 a baseball fan can spend according to the guy who is selling $6.75 beers.

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