Phillies Nation

American League East Preview

Posted by Paul Boye, Wed, March 17, 2010 08:30 PM

The American League East is the toughest, most talented division in baseball. There really isn’t even a close competitor. The Yankees, after providing the rest of baseball with a brief respite from appearing in the postseason, restocked their team with multiple marquee free agents and stormed through the playoffs, only to lose to the Phillies in the World Series.

Nice thought, right?

The Red Sox feature a patient, talented offense and powerful pitching staff. The Rays are young, improving and graduating a number of high draft picks almost regularly. The Orioles sport some talented hitters and an arsenal of prospect starters nearly ready to try and alter the balance of power in the division. The Blue Jays, while clearly not in contention this year, have restocked their farm with solid prospects on a team that could already compete for the N.L. wild card.

The 2009 Season

New York Yankees (103-59, 1st)

It sort of leaves a bitter taste in the mouth to say it, but no team uses the current economic situation in baseball to its advantage better than the Yankees. A team with an impossibly large revenue stream in a league with no salary cap is a recipe for success, and the Yankees have, essentially, been a perennial powerhouse forever. They signed Mark Teixeira, A.J. Burnett and CC Sabathia out of free agency and won their 27th title. It’s no accident; good players means a good team.

So, of course, like any good team, the Yankees made improvements to a team that, even if left alone, would have been a favorite to repeat in 2010. They traded for Curtis Granderson. They signed Nick Johnson. They traded for Javier Vazquez. They retained superprospect Jesus Montero in spite of all that wheeling and dealing. And at the end of the day, they’re an even heavier favorite to emerge from the American League once more.

The only hope for the anti-Yankee is that this team is aging and their pitching is a bit suspect (except for that Rivera dude). Unfortunately, no one has really shown any signs of slowing down, so at least for 2010, it appears age won’t really be a problem.

The pitching is pretty good. The offense is unbelievable. The Yankees are a true force.

Boston Red Sox (95-67, 2nd)

If you’re going to face this team, try to catch them in your home park or they’ll bludgeon you. Hitting a combined .284/.365/.498 at Fenway, as opposed to a more middling .257/.340/.414 on the road, the Red Sox hitter have a true home field advantage. Pitchers also performed better at Fenway – at least in terms of ERA – by more than half a run. In any other division, the Red Sox were division champions in 2009.

Instead, they get the glorious designation of having to play second fiddle to the Yankees once more. That isn’t to say they’re acting like subordinates, though; the Sox made plenty of moves of their own in an effort to keep pace with New York. Bringing in Adrian Beltre, Mike Cameron and John Lackey should help, and with a pitching staff superior to New York’s and an offense that can swat a few baseballs in its own right, the Red Sox are an excellent team.

Tampa Bay Rays (84-78, 3rd)

Winning 84 games in this division is quite the feat, even if missing the playoffs is a disappointing result for the 2008 A.L. Champs. Finally reaping the rewards of high draft picks accumulated from years upon years of losing baseball, the Rays have shaped a young, talented nucleus into a winning team, yet still find themselves at a disadvantage.

The Rays ranked second in all of baseball in team WAR in 2009 – behind only those pesky Yankees – at 34.4, nearly five wins ahead of third-place Anaheim. The bulk of that came on the shoulders of breakout star Ben Zobrist, who put together a wonderful season that didn’t garner nearly the attention it deserved.

Behind Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford and Zobrist, the Rays have a bumper crop of young pitchers looking to move into their primes. They also added Rafael Soriano to bolster an already tough bullpen. Like the Red Sox, the Rays would be a definite division title contender anywhere else, but such is their lot in this life.

Toronto Blue Jays (75-87, 4th)

Roy Halladay is gone, Alex Rios is gone and Vernon Wells has a franchise-hamstringing contract. Scott Rolen was traded, and lame duck G.M. J.P. Ricciardi was canned. Things are not looking bright for Toronto in 2010, but some shrewd trading from new G.M. Alex Anthopolous and top prospect graduation has the offense at least featuring a couple bright spots in Adam Lind and Aaron Hill. Former Philly prospect Kyle Drabek could contribute at the M.L. level as soon as this season, and newly-acquired Brett Wallace could see time at third and first this season.

There is a core taking shape, but Toronto is still some ways – and years –  away from making serious noise in this division. Keep an eye on Travis Snider, a LF/1B/DH type who is only 22 and projects to have a big, powerful bat. He and Lind should form a powerful punch in the middle of the Toronto order for years, hopefully for long enough to allow a competitive core to mature around them.

Baltimore Orioles (64-98, 5th)

Oh, there is a light on that horizon. Nick Markakis is a solid hitter, Adam Jones is a budding superstar – revisit that Erik Bedard trade with Seattle sometime, and marvel at that horde of talent Baltimore pilfered from the unknowing hands on former Ms GM Bill Bavasi – and three stud prospect starters are inching ever closer to the Majors.

Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta have the potential to be the next “Big Three” of starters, in the ilk of bygone days of Zito/Hudson/Mulder  in Oakland. With Tillman already on the roster, Arrieta and Matusz aren’t far behind. Expect the Orioles to catch a few people by surprise this year, but don’t expect a winning season. They just aren’t quite at that point. Yet.

Predicted Standings

Now, to wrap up the American League, each writer was surveyed for their projected playoff results and league awards, as well as highlighting a player to keep an eye on that you may not already pay a great deal of attention to. With that, the prognosticating begins!

Playoff Predictions

Michael Baumann

Red Sox over Twins
Yankees over Mariners

Yankees over Red Sox

Paul Boye

Yankees over Twins
Rangers over Red Sox

Yankees over Rangers

Pat Gallen

Red Sox over Twins
Rangers over Yankees

Red Sox over Rangers

Amanda Orr

Red Sox over Twins
Yankees over Mariners

Yankees Over Red Sox

Corey Seidman

Yankees over Mariners
Angels over Twins

Yankees over Angels

Nick Staskin

Yankees over White Sox
Red Sox over Mariners

Red Sox over Yankees

American League Awards

Michael Baumann

MVP: Mark Teixeira, NYY
Cy Young: Justin Verlander, DET
Rookie of the Year: Chris “Disco” Hayes, KCR or Brett Wallace, TOR
Player to Watch: Ben Zobrist, TB

Paul Boye

MVP: Evan Longoria, TB
Cy Young: Jon Lester, BOS
Rookie of the Year: Brian Matusz, BAL
Player to Watch: Denard Span, MIN

Pat Gallen

MVP: Kevin Youkilis, BOS
Cy Young: Jon Lester, BOS
Rookie of the Year: Austin Jackson, DET
Player to Watch: Gordon Beckham, CWS

Amanda Orr

MVP: Alex Rodriguez, NYY
Cy Young: Felix Hernandez, SEA
Rookie of the Year: Brian Matusz, BAL
Player to Watch: Max Scherzer, DET

Corey Seidman

MVP: Evan Longoria, TB
Cy Young: Jon Lester, BOS
Players to Watch: Matt Wieters, BAL and John Lackey, LAA

Nick Staskin

MVP: Alex Rodriguez, NYY
Cy Young: Felix Hernandez, SEA
Rookie of the Year: Neftali Feliz, TEX
Player to Watch: Cliff Lee (who?), SEA

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That finishes off our preview of the Junior Circuit. Team-by-team previews for the National League start soon, starting with those in the N.L. West.

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The Total WAR Project, Part VI: Milwaukee Brewers

Posted by Paul Boye, Mon, March 08, 2010 03:00 PM

The Total WAR Project is a series of posts that analyzes the closest competition facing the Phillies in 2010. The posts use Wins Above Replacement, a metric designed to use offensive and defensive production within a single stat.

The latest in the series of Total WAR Posts has us examining the Milwaukee Brewers, a team that has risen from irrelevance to prominence in near-meteoric fashion. Behind a core of homegrown prospects (so many, in fact, that they were able to trade the excess for CC Sabathia in 2008), the Brew Crew has established itself as a legitimate contender in the N.L. Central.

That was, at least, until last year, when nearly every player not named Fielder, Braun, Hoffman or Gallardo struggled to produce in a positive way. The Brewers found themselves on the outside looking in during the October playoff stretch, something their fans were likely none too pleased to experience following 2008’s playoff berth.

Will their offseason moves bring them back into contention for the Wild Card, or even the N.L. Central? Let’s take a look.

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Halladay Impresses, Phils Walk-Off in Spring Opener

Posted by Paul Boye, Thu, March 04, 2010 05:16 PM

In a game dominated by pitching for eight innings, the Phillies walked off with a 3-2 victory over the Yankees at Bright House Field.

Roy Halladay made his much-anticipated debut in live action for the Phillies, and he didn’t disappoint. The big ticket acquisition struck out three in two innings that were almost perfect; one runner reached base on a throwing error by third baseman Placido Polanco. His control sharp, his pitches moving with midseason cut and sink, Halladay eased his way through a lineup composed mostly of second- and third-stringers with 21 strikes on 24 pitches.

The rest of the Phils’ rotation wasn’t so bad, either, as Kyle Kendrick, Jose Contreras and Andrew Carpenter pitched six subsequent innings of four-hit relief, walking no one and striking out six.

It was a quiet game until the ninth, when bats suddenly came alive. Leading 1-0, the Phils sent out lefty Sergio Escalona to finish the game. After Yankee megaprospect Jesus Montero singled to lead off the inning, pinch-runner Greg Golson stole second and advanced to third on a groundout. Escalona struck out the next batter he faced before Golson was singled home by David Winfree. The Yanks would tack on another run to take the lead.

Catcher Paul Hoover doubled in the home half of the ninth, scoring Quintin Berry and retying the game. Wilson Valdez would plate pinch-runner Dewayne Wise from third on an infield single that caromed off of pitcher Wilkins Arias, who couldn’t make the throw to first in time.

Next up for the Phils are the Toronto Blue Jays for two split-squad games, Friday at 1:05 p.m. Cole Hamels will start the “A” game, while Jamie Moyer will start the “B” game.

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Spring Training Live Chat Thursday

Posted by Paul Boye, Tue, March 02, 2010 03:30 PM

Tomorrow, the Phillies officially kick off their spring of exhibition games with a match-up against the Florida State University Seminoles. J.A. Happ is set to start the game, with a cavalcade of youngsters (including new prospect Phillippe Aumont) to follow.

Thursday, the crown jewel of the Phillies offseason, Roy Halladay, will start against the World Series champion New York Yankees. Even typing that makes me itchy.

All due respect to Mr. Happ, but to commemorate the occasion of Halladay’s first “start” for the redstripers, we here at Phillies Nation will be hosting a live chat. The game will air live on Comcast Sportsnet, beginning at 1 p.m. EST, and we’ll be here providing insight and commentary, as well as fielding questions and comments from you, the PN loyal.

Join myself, Pat Gallen and the rest of the Phillies Nation crew right here Thursday afternoon. Come armed with questions if you’d like, and prepare to enjoy the unveiling of Roy Halladay as the latest, prized addition to the Phillies family.

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How Important is the Fifth Starter?

Posted by Paul Boye, Mon, February 22, 2010 06:20 PM

The very last role up for grabs for the Phillies entering this spring is that of the fifth starting pitcher, a job whose candidates include Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick and Jose Contreras, among others. With speculation abounding and personal choices varying, it seems there is no clear-cut favorite for the job as camp opens this week in Clearwater.

Just how valuable and vital is the fifth starter, though? Does the fate of the 2010 season rest solely on the decision between Moyer and Kendrick, between Contreras and Andrew Carpenter? Let’s take a look at some history, and value the contributions of the fifth starter on the decade’s last three championship teams.

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Milestone Watch: 2010

Posted by Paul Boye, Thu, February 11, 2010 11:00 AM

The football season is over, hockey and basketball are only now approaching the final quarter of their regular seasons, and pitchers and catchers are mere days from reporting to their Spring Training camp sites.

Oh, it’s time for baseball, all right.

With all due congratulations to the New Orleans Saints, the conclusion of the Super Bowl is usually just a signal that, yes, baseball really is that close. Well, to some of us it is, anyway. One thing I like to do prior to the start of every year is look for potential milestones; numbers that, despite being arbitrary and really no different from any other number, are nice, round, shiny checkboxes to mark off on a player’s career resume.

There aren’t too many historic or overly glamorous plateaus for members of this team to reach, as a great deal are still in their very early thirties or younger. They simply haven’t had the career length to compile 500 homers or 3,000 hits.

So, what Phillies players have milestones to reach in 2010? Let’s take a look at some numbers the players might reach in the coming season. Of course, injuries are always a possibility, so assume I note that caveat each time. These are all in no particular order:

• Chase Utley, 1,000 hits (currently at 978)

This one’s almost too easy. Utley got his 22nd hit on April 27 last year, a mere 18 games into the season. All with a sore hip, too. Then again, that was one torrid start he got off to. I’ll expect something slightly more conservative, and look for hit No. 22 a little later.

• Jimmy Rollins, 1,000 runs scored (currently at 945)

Even with an OBP as low as Rollins’s was in 2009, he still managed to cross the plate 100 times in 155 games. While it’s unlikely to think Rollins will hit as poorly again in 2010, it’s also worth contemplating Charlie Manuel’s new supposed conviction to giving the studs a few extra days off. With the great hitters behind him, he’ll cross 55 before the season is too old. He crossed 55 runs in his 80th game in 2009, back on July 20.

• Raul Ibanez, 1,000 RBI (currently at 887)

Hitting behind Chase Utley, all things are possible, especially when it comes to RBI. Raul will need 113 ribbies in 2010 to cross this plateau, but if Ryan Howard has a bit of a power outage, Ibanez could easily scoop up his collateral RBI. A total of 113 would be his second-best total, trailing only his 2006 season in Seattle.

• Jimmy Rollins, 100 triples (currently at 95)

Rollins hasn’t hit fewer than five triples in any season of his career, save a 14-game stint at the very beginning of his career back in 2000. Even though he’s aging, he sure doesn’t show many signs of slowing. Even though five triples really aren’t that easy to come by, Rollins should almost certainly get No. 100 here in 2010.

• Roy Halladay, 150 wins (currently at 148)

Laughable. Halladay will start opening day against the Nationals, then likely faces the Astros, Nationals again, Braves and Mets in the four starts to follow. Even with the bit of uncertainty lingering in the air above the Phillies’ bullpen, I’d feel pretty good about Halladay notching at least two wins in his first five starts. You should, too.

• Jamie Moyer, 4,000 innings pitched (currently at 3,908.2)

With the announcement earlier Wednesday that Moyer would be the fifth starter in the Phils’ rotation entering the 2010 season, this milestone seems a bit more feasible for Jamie to reach. Should he lose his grip on that spot to Kyle Kendrick, Drew Carpenter or any other number of viable candidates, things may get a bit murkier. Until then, though, it looks as if Jamie will get the remaining 91.1 innings onto his record after17-18 starts, if not a bit sooner. Remember: the man is 47.

Less glamorous milestones:

• Jimmy Rollins, 5,000 outs made (currently at 4,532)

A by-product of leading off so often is that with more at-bats come more outs. During his MVP campaign in 2007, Rollins actually led the Majors in outs made with 527. He fell one short of that ignominious mark in 2009, all in 53 fewer plate appearances. Obviously, we can probably write off Jimmy’s 2009 as a blip; he shouldn’t perform that poorly again, you’d expect. However, Rollins needs 468 outs to crack 5,000 for his career, and has exceeded that 468-count figure in eight of the last nine years. The only exception, of course, was 2008, when Rollins played in just 137 games.

What would Jimmy need to do to postpone reaching the 5k peak? Well, assuming he gets the 717 plate appearances he’s averaged since his first full season, he would need to reach base 250 times for an OBP of .349. Funnily enough, that’s exactly his career high, a mark he achieved in 2008.

• Raul Ibanez, 1,000 strikeouts (currently at 906)

Ibanez has only recently morphed into a high-strikeout player. Reasons for this are something I don’t know and am now interested in finding out (it could just be age), but it makes reaching 94 strikeouts for this season much more likely than it would in, say, 2002. Ibanez has had no fewer than 97 Ks in each of the last five seasons, but if he puts up power numbers even somewhat comparable to 2009, we’ll gladly accept that, I’m sure.

• Ryan Howard, 1,000 strikeouts (currently at 878)

Sadly, Ryan Howard hasn’t played long enough to soften the blow of reaching this milestone. He needs 122 punchouts to hit No. 1,000, and has struck out at least 181 times in each of the past four years. We may yet see both Howard and Ibanez cross the 1,000 mark here in 2010.

Milestones to keep an eye on for 2011:

• Jimmy Rollins, 2,000 hits (currently at 1,629)

He’s not getting 371 hits in one season – boy wouldn’t that be something – but as his 2011 option has already been picked up, it seems Jimmy will have a good shot to get his 2,000th hit in red pinstripes. He’ll need an average of 186 hits in 2010 and ‘11, but he’s passed that four times before. He’ll certainly come close and definitely reach 2,000 by 2012.

• Chase Utley, 150 HBP (currently at 107)

It’s a wonder the man hasn’t developed a Notre Dame-like hunch of bruising on his right shoulder, turning “away” from pitches that come too far inside. Hey, it’s part of his strategy. I’ll live with hits to the back and shoulder, so long as they stay away from his hand.

Looking at you, John Lannan.

• Ryan Howard, 1,000 hits (currently at 750)

RyGuy just isn’t a 250-hit player. He’s just not Ichiro. But he does hit enough to get to 1,000 sometime in 2011, for sure.

• Cole Hamels, 1,000 strikeouts (currently at 686)

Needing 314 Ks, Cole could be at 1,000 strikeouts before he turns 28. That doesn’t put him on pace to challenge Nolan Ryan or even have a likely shot at 3,000, but that doesn’t make it any less impressive. Hamels is currently second on the Phillies’ all-time leaderboard for strikeouts per nine (albeit in a shorter amount of time). The man he trails? Curt Schilling, who didn’t reach his 1,000th K until he was ten seasons into his career and 30 years old.

Am I saying Cole is the next Curt? Nope. I can’t possibly know that, but Schilling finished his career with 3,116 strikeouts, and Cole is (technically) ahead of his curve right now. It’s at least fun to think about.

• Chase Utley, 200 home runs (currently at 161)
  Chase will need a huge power surge to break this in 2010. Sitting 39 dingers away, he’s a near lock to hit number 200 by 2011, at worst. I do not, however, see him swatting all 39 of those homers in 2010, though the usual 30 or so will more than suffice. Prediction: 2011.

Chase will need a huge power surge to break this in 2010. Sitting 39 dingers away, he’s a near lock to hit number 200 by 2011, at worst. I do not, however, see him swatting all 39 of those homers in 2010, though the usual 30 or so will more than suffice.

Chase will probably play in his 1,000th game in 2010 (he’s 109 away), and among second basemen who have played 1,000-plus games since 1901, only twelve have ever hit 200 homers. Jeff Kent holds the second base record at 377, a mark Utley could challenge in the latter stages of his career.

Any milestones that I’ve missed? Do you think any current Phils have a shot at greater benchmarks? Let’s hear what you have to say.

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The Total WAR Project, Part V: Los Angeles Dodgers

Posted by Paul Boye, Fri, February 05, 2010 02:20 PM

The Total WAR Project is a series of posts Mike and I began back at The Phrontiersman. In each post, we take a look at the biggest competition the Phillies will likely face – within their division, the National League and the American League – and evaluate their offseasons. Have these teams improved? Have they weakened? How good are the Phillies, in terms of WAR, in relation to their closest competition? Well, that last one will be reserved for the final post in the series. For now, we’re setting our sights on our competitors.

We’re using WAR – Wins Above Replacement – exclusively here, as it contains both offensive and defensive evaluations combined into one single, easy-to-use statistic. There are a few iterations of WAR, none differing greatly, and we use the one supplied by Fangraphs for our numbers and projections.

Typically, these posts begin with some sort of allegorical war story to tie in with the team we’re about to evaluate. You want a war story? Go read some of the comments on the last entry in the series, posted by Mike on the Cardinals.

In this episode, we’ll be taking a look at the National League runners-up in two straight seasons, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Shall we?

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Carlos Ruiz Signs

Posted by Paul Boye, Tue, January 26, 2010 03:14 PM

Originally posted Jan. 23 at 12:44 p.m.

According to a source close to Phillies Nation, the Phillies and catcher Carlos Ruiz have agreed on a contract. Ruiz, who turned 31 yesterday, enjoyed a breakout season in 2009, posting career highs in on-base percentage (.355), slugging percentage (.425) and OPS (.780).

Some advanced metrics also favor Ruiz defensively, as he is among the top 10 catchers in runs saved over the past three seasons. Had he and the Phils gone to arbitration, Ruiz was seeking $2.5 million, while the team offered $1.7 million. While it is currently unknown whether the deal is for one year or multiple years, it is widely believed that Ruiz was the one arbitration-eligible player most in need of a multi-year deal, given the lack of advanced catching prospects following the trading of Lou Marson and Travis d’Arnaud.

UPDATE, 3:15 pm: The Carlos Ruiz signing has become official according to a press release from the Phillies.  It is indeed 3-years, $8.85 million, however, the yearly breakdown has not been announced.  The fourth year of the deal is an option for $5 million with a $500K buyout.

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The Value of Jayson Werth

Posted by Paul Boye, Fri, January 22, 2010 04:00 PM

Note: Not that any of you would call me on this, but this is an article I originally published to my old blog, The Phrontiersman, about a month ago. Some of the wording has been updated to match the signings of the past week or so.

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It would probably be fair to classify the 2010 season as the beginning of a transitional period in the history of the Phillies.

One piece has already been addressed, with Ruben Amaro having traded for and signed a legitimately elite starter for the next four seasons. Another, slightly less important cog has been WD-40ed, with Placido Polanco replacing Pedro Feliz for the next three seasons. What looms in the future are more pivotal decisions that, if correctly addressed, will keep the Phillies among the National League’s elite teams for years to come.

The first such decision involves Jayson Werth’s future in South Philly. Werth, who will turn 31 in May, had a career year in 2009. Career highs in home runs, RBI, hits, doubles, walks and OPS+ shoved him through the veil of unknown and underrated players into the spotlight (that powerful playoff run he had sure didn’t hurt, either).

But Werth is no lock to continue improving. Wrist and durability issues limited his playing time in Los Angeles and Toronto, and actually cost him his entire 2006; his age 27 season. The Phillies picked him up on a light and airy $850k contract, and Werth has been paying dividends ever since.

Financially, Werth has been a tremendous bargain. Not including undisclosed performance bonuses, Werth has earned $4.55M in three seasons in Philadelphia and is set to make $7M in 2010, nearly doubling his previous earnings.

Think about what that four-and-a-half million has given the Phillies:

• A .276/.376/.494 slash line

• 68 home runs

• 128 extra-base hits

• 47 stolen bases in just 52 attempts

• Excellent RF defense in 2007 and 2008, albeit with a significant drop in 2009

Clearly, the man has outperformed the money he has been paid, and I don’t think anyone disagrees with that. The conundrum facing the Phillies front office lies in whether they believe Werth is valuable enough to retain at a more premium price. Michael Taylor is no longer waiting in the wings. Domonic Brown is at least another full season away. No other outfield prospect worth getting too excited about is even all that close to the Majors.

After the expiration of his current contract following this season, Werth will find himself amid a crop of outfield free agents highlighted by Carl Crawford and Not Really Anybody Else. He will be considered (at worst) the second-best outfielder out there, and will get quite a bit of money.

The question, then, is this: with Werth’s durability issues as close to the front of your mind as his performance in 2008 and 2009, do you find room in the payroll to give him an extension? Red flags about future costs have already been raised with the necessity to dump Cliff Lee during this offseason. Can a significant raise for Werth be afforded? On the flip side, are Werth’s health problems behind him for good? Can he be relied on to play 145+ games for every season of a new contract?

This is what’s set to happen to the payroll following the 2010 season, with Carlos Ruiz left as the only arbitration-eligible player remaining:

• Ryan Howard will get a $1M raise, from $19M to $20M

• Roy Halladay will get a $4.25M raise, from $15.75M to $20M; though, really, this is more of a $10.25M raise

• Cole Hamels will get a $3.25M raise, from $6.65M to $9.5M

• Joe Blanton will get a $1.5M raise, from $7M to $8.5M

• Shane Victorino may be due a raise, depending on details of his new contract that have yet to be published

• Placido Polanco will get a $250k raise, from $5.167M to $5.417M

• Brian Schneider will get a $500k raise, from $1.125M to $1.625M

• Ross Gload will get a $600K raise, from $1M to $1.6M

So that accounts for about $11.35M in raises (or $15.25M, depending on how you view the Halladay situation), not including bonuses. Also not included is the looming potential arbitration eligibility for pitcher Kyle Kendrick and outfielder Ben Francisco. J.A. Happ has an outside chance at eligibility, but will likely fall about 80 days of service time short of qualifying as a Super Two player with a fourth year of arbitration. As for money coming off the books, this is what’s set to go down in terms of 2010 salary:

• Werth will be a free agent after making $7M plus bonuses

• Jamie Moyer will be a free agent after making $6.5M plus a couple more million in bonuses

• J.C. Romero has a 2011 club option for $4.5M with a $250k buyout

• Chad Durbin will be a free agent following his final arbitration year

First, let’s see what kind of money Werth can expect to make, or at least demand. His average production over the past two seasons yields a line of .270/.369/.503, with 30 homers.

Werth has put up numbers similar to new Met Jason Bay’s over the past couple of seasons, but is arguably more valuable for his (typically) plus defense in a more demanding outfield position.

Considering Werth will turn 32 in May of his first season with a new club, it’s not unreasonable to expect a three- or four-year deal for him, with an average annual value in the $13-16M range. Considering Werth isn’t represented by Scott Boras, it’s plausible to think he won’t be getting Matt Holliday money; good news for the Phils, as not only is that too much for Werth, they would have no chance to afford it. A lot of this hinges on a healthy, productive 2010 campaign.

Knowing the current constitution of the Phillies, as well as their prospect situation, is it prudent to extend Werth? Can the Phillies afford him? What sort of deal do you foresee for the slugger? Let’s hear what you think.

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Shane Victorino Signs Extension

Posted by Paul Boye, Thu, January 21, 2010 08:13 PM

Craig Calcaterra of NBC Sports is reporting that a source has told him that the Phillies and center fielder Shane Victorino have agreed to a three-year, $22 million extension.

The report continues a flurry of contract news for the Phils, who just announced the extension of pitcher Joe Blanton earlier today. Victorino, 29, hit .292/.358/.445 with 10 homers in 2009. This was his second year of arbitration eligibility.

With extension talks in progress for Carlos Ruiz, the Phillies would likely have seven of eight positional starters under contract for at least 2010 and 2011.

UPDATE, 10:10 am: The Victorino press conference will be today at Noon at Citizens Bank Park.

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Top Moment No. 2: “Get Me to the Plate”

Posted by Paul Boye, Thu, January 21, 2010 03:30 PM

Top Moment No. 2: Ryan Howard Locks Up NLDS Game 4 With a Two-Out Double

Ryan Howard is a dangerous man. At 6′4″ and 230 lbs. with a swooping, left-handed power stroke, it’s easy to see why, but what made Howard that much more fearsome in Colorado last October had nothing to do with a home run or his middle linebacker frame. No, it was what he said that night that should have struck immediate fear into all those in attendance at Coors Field.

“Just get me to the plate, fellas.”

The Phillies had a two games to one lead over Colorado in the NLDS, and had the opportunity to head back to the League Championship Series for the second straight year. The Rockies, however, weren’t exactly rolling over. Heading into the top of the ninth, Colorado held a 4-2 lead with their best reliever, Huston Street, on the mound. The Rockies had taken that lead in the previous half-inning, after Dexter Fowler’s giant leap over Jimmy Rollins led to Cliff Lee’s departure and a three-run surge that sucked the life out of the tri-state area.

“Just get me to the plate, fellas.”

Howard was due up fifth in the top of the ninth, so he’d need a little help from the hitters in front of him. Pinch-hitter Greg Dobbs couldn’t oblige, as he struck out, but Rollins followed up with an infield single to keep hope alive with one out. A ground out from Shane Victorino swapped he and Rollins at first, now with two outs, and things were in the hands of Chase Utley. In a full count, Utley drew a walk, prolonging the inning just far enough for Howard to finally get his shot.

“Just get me to the plate, fellas.”

Pitch one, ball one. A walk would be beneficial, as Jayson Werth stood on deck. Anything but that final out. Pitch two, fouled away. For all his power, Howard’s swing came with a high strikeout price. That certainly wasn’t out of the question, here. Pitch three, ball two. Howard was back in the driver’s seat in a slight hitter’s count. He knew Street didn’t want to be forced to throw a 3-1 fastball, so he’d want to get one over and catch Howard waiting for ball three.

On the twenty-fourth pitch of the inning, Street left a fat, 91 MPH fastball over the plate on the inner half that Howard sent to the wall in right field. Victorino scored on a jog, and Utley, in an act of base running that may forever go unheralded, blazed a path from first to home on a gallop that nearly caught Victorino from behind. It took six seconds from contact to Rockies right fielder Carlos Gonzalez’s throw to the infield, and Utley was already around third, gaining ground on Victorino.

Howard got to the plate once more in that ninth inning, as Jayson Werth followed up with a tie-breaking, bloop single past second base that gave the Phillies the lead. Brad Lidge would close out the ninth, and a new legend was born. The Phils were on their way to defending their National League crown.

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Phillies Swap Arbitration Figures

Posted by Paul Boye, Tue, January 19, 2010 05:06 PM

The report has come in from CSN Philly’s Jim Salisbury, and the three remaining arbitration-eligible Phillies have let their demands be known. The team has also submitted its proposed figures for each player.

There is still plenty of time for one-year or even multi-year deals to be worked out before hearings begin in February, something Salisbury says the Phils are looking to accomplish with Victorino above all others.

Here are the reported figures exchanged:

Joe Blanton, SP: $10.25 million. Team offers $7.5 million.

Carlos Ruiz, C: $2.5 million. Team offers $1.7 million.

Shane Victorino, CF: $5.8 million. Team offers $4.75 million.

What do you think? Is Blanton asking too much? Is now the time to work on multi-year deals for Ruiz and Victorino, or even Blanton?

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UPDATE (Wednesday, 8:00 PM): MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports that contract talks have begun for all three of the remaining arbitration-eligible players. Both one-year and multi-year deals are reportedly in the works, but details are unclear as to what length each player is discussing.

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The Total WAR Project, Part II: New York Mets

Posted by Paul Boye, Thu, January 14, 2010 12:04 PM

IMPORTANT: If you’re reading this post before the Total WAR introduction and Part I have been posted, you’re reading this in error.

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I’m not the politic and history buff that Mike is, I won’t pretend to be, but it sure seems to me like the Mets are a lot like the war in Iraq; or, at least, like the two big views of it back here. Either you a) try to spend a whole lot more money and add more troops to try and overwhelm your opposition or b) finally admit it’s time to resign and pull back and let the system rebuild.

The Yankees finally perfected the art of option A last year, when three huge free agents propelled them to the title over the Phillies. The Mets, well, still seem to be stuck trying to master that art. After a lost season in which nearly every single starting position player and pitcher landed on the disabled list, the Mets are trying to get right back into the party in the National League East, not content to simply roll over and let the Phils take another division crown as they gather reinforcements.

Can the Mets’ returning starters – with a little help from some cavalry – actually make some noise and challenge the Phillies for the top spot in the East?

2009 Roster

C1: Omir Santos (1.0 WAR)
C2: Ramon Castro (0.9 WAR)

1B: Carlos Delgado (0.8 WAR)
2B: Luis Castillo (1.6 WAR)
3B: David Wright (3.4 WAR)
SS: Jose Reyes (0.7 WAR)
IF: Daniel Murphy (0.6 WAR)

OF1: Carlos Beltran (2.9 WAR)
OF2: Angel Pagan (2.9 WAR)
OF3: Ryan Church (0.4 WAR)
OF4: Jeff Francoeur (0.4 WAR)
OF5/UTIL: Fernando Tatis (1.5 WAR)

SP1: Johan Santana (2.8 WAR)
SP2: Mike Pelfrey (1.8 WAR)
SP3: Livan Hernandez (0.9 WAR)
SP4: John Maine (0.6 WAR)
SP5: Tim Redding (0.1 WAR)

CL: Francisco Rodriguez (0.3 WAR)
SU: Pedro Feliciano (0.6 WAR)
RP: Bobby Parnell (0.5 WAR)
RP: J.J. Putz (0.1 WAR)
RP: Sean Green (-0.1 WAR)
RP: Brian Stokes (-0.2 WAR)
RP: Elmer Dessens (-0.3 WAR)
P: Oliver Perez (-0.8 WAR)

2009 Total WAR: 23.4

That total is exactly half of what the regular Braves 25-man roster put up in 2009. Granted, this team was absolutely ravaged by injury, and the team leader in homers (Murphy) had just 12. Only six players appeared in 100 games or more. Jose Reyes and Carlos Delgado combined to play in just 62 games all year…you get the picture. The list of contributing players for this team is tall, but none cracked 3.5 WAR and 22 different players put up negatives. Twenty-two! The Mets needed to use practically an entire second roster to compensate for injuries.

(I wrote this up a few hours before the mess with Carlos Beltran surfaced. For pure irony’s sake, I’ll just leave it here untouched)

Barring another medicinal cataclysm not unlike the Andromeda Strain, this team will be better in 2010, if only because its regulars will actually take the field, well, regularly. The addition of Jason Bay helps, and makes an already talented lineup a little bit more fearsome. The real question surrounding the Mets, though, is this: who, besides Santana, can pitch the ball competently for anywhere close to 200 innings as a starter or 50 innings in relief? Even Francisco Rodriguez could only manage a measly 0.3 WAR for his $8.5M.

As an aside, did you know that K-Rod has a vesting option for 2012 at $17.5 million? That’s more than Mariano Rivera has made or will make in any year, and that includes the contract that will come after this current one expires after the 2010 season, and it vests with just some modest games finished totals and a clean bill of health. Lunacy, as someone would say.

Not content to just wait for healthy players, the Mets added Jason Bay to, essentially, replace what Carlos Delgado brought when healthy. How does the Metropolitans’ roster project right now?

2010 Roster

C1: Henry Blanco (1.0 WAR)
C2: Chris Coste (0.7 WAR)

1B: Daniel Murphy (0.7 WAR)
2B: Luis Castillo (1.3 WAR)
3B: David Wright (5.2 WAR)
SS: Jose Reyes (5.3 WAR)
INF: Alex Cora (0 WAR)

OF1: Carlos Beltran (4.7 WAR)
OF2: Jason Bay (4.0 WAR)
OF3: Angel Pagan (1.5 WAR)
OF4: Jeff Francoeur (1.1 WAR)
OF5: Fernando Martinez (0.1 WAR)

SP1: Johan Santana (4.7 WAR)*
SP2: Mike Pelfrey (3.6 WAR)*
SP3: Oliver Perez (1.3 WAR)*
SP4: John Maine (0.6 WAR)* 4.43 FIP, 123 IP
SP5: ?

CL: Francisco Rodriguez (0.9 WAR)*
SU: Pedro Feliciano (0.6 WAR) 3.75 FIP, 57 IP
RP: Kelvim Escobar (5.2 WAR as a starter) 3.15 FIP, 36 IP as a reliever
RP: Ryota Igarashi (Unknown WAR) 3.19 ERA, 52 IP
RP: Nelson Figueroa (0.6 WAR) 4.29 FIP, 156 IP as a starter
RP: Sean Green (-0.1 WAR) 3.93 FIP, 72 IP
RP: Brian Stokes (-0.2 WAR) 4.40 FIP, 69 IP
RP: Pat Misch (-0.3 WAR) 4.43 FIP, 67 IP

2010 Projected Total WAR: 37.3

Out: Delgado, Hernandez, Redding, Putz, Dessens

In: Bay, Escobar, Igarashi

Okay, now for the caveats. Escobar pitched just three innings in 2009, so 2008 numbers are listed for him. His career as a starter is over, and as I have no way to project what sort of value he could add as a relief pitcher, he did not factor into the total. Igarashi’s numbers are from his last season in NPB, and he, too, did not factor into the total.

The Mets need a fifth starter, and I’m not buying CHONE’s inclination that Figueroa will be used in the rotation long enough to rack up 156 combined starting and relief innings. I just don’t see him making the 10+ starts necessary to reach that mark, along with many multi-inning relief appearances. The bullpen is still a mess, the rotation is average, and the Mets will need to pummel people game after game to keep their head above water.

They’re still being linked to Bengie Molina, as well as Orlando Hudson, should Castillo be traded. Joel Pineiro has also grabbed their attention. Molina is a swing-at-everything catcher with a little pop who is projected to add just half a win over Blanco, but will likely cost a few million over two years. As Phillies fans, we want this. Hudson, a severely overrated fielder, looks to be about one full win better than Castillo for 2010, while Pineiro, a groundballing Dave Duncan reclamation project, will be overpaid but should put up average numbers. His 2009 WAR exceeded his combined total from the previous four seasons, but he did have some effective seasons in Seattle prior to that. He’d offer value simply be being able to competently throw a ball over the plate for 150 or so innings, something the Mets need desperately; far more than they need another slight offensive upgrade.

New York should be pesky as ever in 2010, but shouldn’t be considered a serious contender for the division as they are presently constituted. By adding some combination of Molina, Hudson and Pineiro, they bolster their chances for the wild card, but don’t approach 90 wins and probably finish behind Atlanta in the division.

Fernando Martinez was rushed to the Majors, and his numbers were awful in 100 plate appearances, but he is still regarded as a nice prospect and should see a bump in production. Heck, he won’t even turn 22 until the second week in October.

It can’t be stressed enough how hard this season rides upon the health of the Mets’ key players. Having Beltran and Reyes healthy automatically makes the Mets a team to take notice of, and David Wright should be his normal, really good self (whether the Powerful Wright or Contactful Wright shows up is a different issue). Really, though, this team’s fate lies in the hands of its pitching staff, which was not much improved this offseason. Right now, its highlights are composed of Johan Santana, fragments of Francisco Rodriguez and about 15 contenders for fourth starter and middle relief. Despite the offense, they might struggle to post a decent run differential.

Mark the Mets for 84-78, third place in the East for 2010.

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