Phillies Nation

Odds And Ends: Chih-Kuo, Manny, Bowa, Rant

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Thu, October 09, 2008 11:09 AM

A few odds and ends before game one:

• Hong Chih-Kuo is close to being added to the Dodgers playoff roster, taking the place of Takashi Saito, who has struggled after being injured.

Chih-Kuo, a lefty, is 5-3 with a 2.14 ERA in 42 games this season. He has struck out 96 and walked 21. I call that a good move.

• The Los Angeles Times points out Manny Ramirez is hitting .155 in 58 at bats in Philadelphia.

His career on-base percentage is .219.

• Larry Bowa said Philadelphia fans are awesome:

“The one thing they’re not is front-runners; they come out.” He then added that he warned his players on how loud and hostile Philadelphia will be. “It’s not even close,” he said, comparing Philly to Wrigley Field. Take that, bleacher bunnies.

• Here’s a head-scratching read: Cathal Kelly of the Toronto Star says he knows Philadelphia fans.

So did Kelly speak to one? Did he poll Philly fans about the upcoming NLCS and their level of fandom?

No, of course not. For one, he says mentioning the “Oronto-Tay Lue-Bay Ays-Jay” in Philadelphia is dangerous. Okay, no one likes watching Joe Carter romp around the bases, but Mitch Williams is an integral part of Philadelphia baseball these days, so … ummm … you’re wrong? Then he brings up Jimmy Rollins’ frontrunner comments. How original. Then he brings up Bowa’s above quote. And misreads it, saying going to a Phillies game sounds like a public hanging. Really? Have you ever been to a public hanging, Cathal? So there’s a town square in Toronto where people just chop off heads? Tell Marie Antoinette I said “‘ello.”

Then he says we have “memories of elephants,” whatever that means. He uses Bowa’s defense of the Phils in the 1977 LCS as proof that Phillie fans dwell on everything. I’ll say this — not once has my mom or dad (Phillies fans in 1977) ever spoke about Black Friday. In fact, the only person I’ve ever seen or heard speak about that day is Bill freakin’ Conlin, and that’s because all he ever does is reference the past.

Then there’s this nugget:

If Philadelphia fans weren’t thinking negatively about baseball, they wouldn’t have any reason to watch at all.

Go f*** yourself, Cathal. What a slap in the face to all of us.

Of course, this is the kind of crap you get when you’re thrust onto the national stage.

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NLCS Preview Part VI : From The Other Side

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Thu, October 09, 2008 10:00 AM

2008 National League Championship Series Preview

Part VI : From The Other Side

The Blogger: Jon Weisman
The Web site: Dodger Thoughts (www.dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com)

Weismann is one of the more respected baseball bloggers out there, and Dodger Thoughts is a well-done fan blog, one Peter Gammons cited as a daily read. I asked Weismann some questions in preparation for the NLCS. Here’s what he had to say, with my questions in red:

The Phillies’ last opponent, the Brewers, probably wouldn’t have made the postseason if not for CC Sabathia. Can you say the same about the Dodgers and Manny Ramirez?

That’s fair to say, although I don’t think it was out of the realm of possibility for the Dodgers to beat Arizona head-to-head without Manny. But I’m sure not going to be the one to argue that he wasn’t critical. Everything that Andruw Jones was supposed to be wasn’t; Ramirez was that and more.

Are you shocked the Dodgers swept the Cubs in the NLDS? Or did you see that coming?

Definitely didn’t see the sweep coming. I was cautiously optimistic the Dodgers might win the series, emphasis on “cautiously.” I still wonder what would have happened had Lou taken out Ryan Dempster before James Loney came to bat in Game 1.

Say the Phillies shut down Ramirez. Which one offense player has to step up to win the series for the Dodgers?

Well, the strength of the Dodgers offensively, besides Ramirez, is that the lineup has become pretty strong one-through-eight. It’s instructive that Ramirez did not have the critical hit in any of the NLDS games. You obviously want to see the guys batting behind Ramirez, such as James Loney and Andre Ethier, do well in the event the Phillies walk Ramirez intentionally, but I think there are any number of potential heroes.

I love the Dodgers balance of tried experience and energetic youth. It seems the latter has stepped up lately. Are you concerned about the way the young guys will respond to being in the NLCS limelight?

Not really. Even the two kids who struggled the most against Chicago, Matt Kemp and Ethier, still had their moments, chipping in with walks here or a double there. I mean, they’ll do well or they won’t, but I don’t think pressure is going to be an issue.

What does Rafael Furcal give this team that they didn’t have while he was out?

He offers great on-base skill at the top of the lineup and allows guys like Kemp or Russell Martin to bat lower, thus lengthening the lineup, as I alluded to before. I mean, I doubt I need to tell you the difference between having Furcal leading off or having Angel Berroa batting eighth.

Of the bench bats, who should Phillies relievers be most concerned about?

At this point, unless they get a spot start, Nomar Garciaparra and Jeff Kent will be coming off the bench. That’s not what they’ve done most of their careers — careers that are winding down — but they’re still pretty good guys to have in reserve.

Derek Lowe, going game one, should be very effective against the Phils. But how can you beat him?

The biggest worry when Lowe pitches is that the defense behind him will let him down. It helps that Furcal is back in there, but this is still not an exceptional defensive team.

The Phillies had moderate success against Chad Billingsley, and a lot of success against Clayton Kershaw. Concern about these two big arms against the Phils big bats?

I’m not a big fan of drawing conclusions about how well a team does against a pitcher based on a start or three. Just too small a sample size. But I’m always concerned every single game. The Phillies have a great lineup. And Kershaw is very young; he can get into trouble. He also won’t have pitched in a game in a couple weeks. I think he’ll do better pitching at home if he starts game four (though I still tend to think Lowe will get that start). Billingsley has arrived; there are very few pitchers I’d rather see on the mound. But pitching in Philadelphia is no walk in the park for anyone.

It’s possible the series will be determined in the bullpens. Of all the arms back there, whose are you most skeptical about pitching in a tight game?

Chan Ho Park has slumped in the second half and gives up home runs at a high rate. But he’s fallen a ways down the depth chart.

Not asking for a drop-dead prediction, but how close does this series look to you?

I don’t know how you can confidently predict the outcome of a series between two teams who swept each other in the same month. It’s a close series that could still be a romp for either team …

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NLCS Preview Part V : Joe And Smoothies

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Wed, October 08, 2008 06:42 PM

2008 National League Championship Series Preview

Part V : Joe And Smoothies

2008 Los Angeles Dodgers
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Experience: Manny Ramirez has won two world titles; Greg Maddux has won a title and has been to the playoffs many times; Derek Lowe has won a title; Juan Pierre has won a title. Most of the regulars played in the 2006 NLDS.
Manager: Joe Torre (13 straight playoff appearances; four titles)

About

Uh, the Dodgers have experience. Well, okay, maybe not like the Red Sox, but very close. They have the most decorated manager in our era, the most accomplished pitcher in our era, and maybe the best offensive player of our time. So there’s that.

Let’s just move on.

Experience Factor

The Dodgers have decorated players in high places. Game one starter Derek Lowe is no stranger to big games — he probably should’ve been the 2004 World Series MVP. Instead, it was Ramirez, who … yeah, is on this team, too.

What’s more, the team’s foundation players (Martin, Ethier, Kemp, Loney, Broxton) were on the 2006 team that lost in the Division Series to the Mets. So they’ve been to the postseason before and, as demonstrated against Chicago, can handle the pressure.

Hello, Joe

Some of that is due to their skipper, the unflappable Torre. As mild-manered as they come, Torre simply guides teams to the postseason with the same formula every year — start out slow, painfully slow, run like a freight train in August and play a competitive September. Usually a team that implements this formula will have postseason success. Torre is no stranger to postseason success.

He’s also a pretty good in-game manager. He guided a bare Yankee bullpen into October the past few seasons, and this season has gotten the most out of many of his young players. He’s also not afraid to use a guy like Cory Wade in huge spots. That type of trust comes hard for Torre, but if he accepts you, then you must be good.

The Ravine

Dodger Stadium. It’s a beautiful, traditional, overlooked gem of a ballpark. It’s this blue beacon of summertime. Guys like Chase Utley probably dreamed about playing on that grass. It really is what a baseball venue should resemble — nothing showy, nothing awkward, just nice sightlines, simple seating, all attention on the field.

They say Chavez Ravine has been a pretty scarce place at times — you know, the whole “the fans leave before the seventh inning” stuff. But you can’t argue with attendance figures, which say the Dodgers annually have among the highest numbers in baseball. When Manny showed up, they celebrated him with crazy braid wigs. They’ve been loud and proud, and since turning their season around into a division victory, they’ve gained considerable swagger. Oh, and Alyssa Milano is a big Dodger fan, lest we forget.

Tradition And Rivalry

The Dodgers have been around for a long, long time. The Californian base of fans saw two world titles in the 1980s, so they’re not exactly in dire need for a trophy. Plus, those guys have the Lakers and Ducks (lest we forget the Ducks). They’ve seen gold.

Back in the day, when the National League was cool because there was two divisions, Philly and LA were rivals, somewhat. In the late 1970s there was a fierce one, since the Phils and Dodgers were the top teams in the NL. They played each other consecutively in the NLCS, with LA winning both. Those Dodgers had a fast batting order and straight pitching. Not much different from today. The Phils back then had a couple star hitters, a stud lefty and a crafty bullpen. Uhh …

This isn’t the ’70s. This time we have Davy Lopes, and he’s a hell of a coach. But seriously, there won’t be blood between these teams, but there will sure be some tight baseball. They’re very even teams, and both are coming into their primes.

Final Word

This will be fun. The Dodgers have a slew of leadership and a slew of young hot shots. No one is really in his prime, per say, but everyone contributes to the cause equally. Meanwhile, the Phils are stacked with guys in their prime. It’s the extremes vs. the center. Palin and Nader vs. Clinton! Huzzah!

The Dodgers are built for the World Series, as are the Phillies. Both teams have unflappable managers, solid offenses, strong pitching staffs and a wealth of intangibles. That makes this a very close one. It’s hard to pin a winner on this series.

For the Phillies, it’s essential to carry momentum into Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers blew the Cubs away in game two of the NLDS — I’m convinced if the Cubs won that game, it’s a totally different series. That means the onus is on Brett Myers. Isn’t it always? Bottom line — if this series goes to La La Land with the Phils down 0-2 or coming off a bad loss, we’re looking at big trouble.

But I don’t think that’ll happen. I swear.

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NLCS Preview Part IV : The Pen’s The Thing

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Wed, October 08, 2008 02:00 PM

2008 National League Championship Series Preview

Part IV : The Pen’s The Thing

Probable Bullpen
Chan Ho Park - 4-4 / 3.40 ERA / 79 K / 36 BB
James McDonald - 0-0 / 0.00 ERA / 2 K / 0 BB
Greg Maddux - 8-13 / 4.22 ERA / 98 K / 30 BB
Cory Wade - 2-1 / 2.27 ERA / 51 K / 15 BB
Takashi Saito - 4-4 / 2.49 ERA / 60 K / 16 BB
Joe Beimel - 5-1 / 2.02 ERA / 32 K / 21 BB
Jonathan Broxton - 3-5 / 3.13 ERA / 88 K / 27 BB

About

This is a very good bullpen, statistically. Unlike the Phillies, however, the Dodgers don’t have very clear, defined roles in their pen. What we know is Broxton will likely close games, and Saito has experience in that arena, but has struggled after an injury. We know Beimel is the only lefty in the bullpen. We know Wade is a pretty good setup man who has come into his own in his first season. And we know Maddux will be used maybe in a middle-relief role in the series.

So we know things, but we don’t know concrete plans. Whereas with the Phils, we know Durbin and Eyre go earlier, Madson and Romero go later, Lidge goes latest, and Condrey and Happ are in when absolutely necessary. And boom goes the dynamite.

All Roads To Broxton

Jonny “I don’t want. Your life” Brox. The 24-year-old throws strikes, and has pretty devastating stuff, but he is hittable. Take Shane Victorino, who is 3-for-5 lifetime against Broxton. Jimmy Rollins has walked twice and hit once in six plate appearances. The main losers against Brox? Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, Pedro Feliz (3 K) and Pat Burrell (2 K). That makes sense — Broxton beats guys who look fastball first, home run most. Having Chase Utley (2-for-4, 2B) or Victorino up against Broxton is the best thing possible.

Getting to him, the Phils will mostly encounter Wade and Beimel. The former has never faced the Phillies, but will strike out a ton of batters. He’ll be the X-factor for the Dodgers bullpen — the guy who can effectively bridge the starters to Broxton. The latter, Beimel, is a left-handed specialist who has weird splits against lefties. While lefties hit Beimel better than righties (.278 to .263), they’re slugging worse (.311 to .337). What matters is how Beimel has done against the Phils top lefties: Howard (0-for-3, 3 BB); Utley (2-for-7, 2B); Jenkins (4-for-11, 2 BB); Stairs (1-for-4, 2B). Dobbs has no appearances against him. Phils righties have hit him well, so Charlie Manuel might think about breaking Utley and Howard to keep Beimel almost invisible.

Saito On It

Takashi Saito has been an interesting case. Once a drop-dead top closer, he lost his spot with an injury, and has not clearly found a true role since. He might see the end of a game against the Phils, or he might see time earlier. Whatever the case, he hasn’t faced Phillie hitters too much, keeping them hitless almost across the board. The only exception: Stairs, who is 1-for-1 with a home run.

When Saito gets hit, it’s by lefties, and it’s by pulling the ball. Saito might not give Utley, Howard, Dobbs, Jenkins and Stairs pitches to hit, but if he misses, they have to be on it.

The Experience Factor

At the front of the bullpen are three pitchers with varying experience. With the least — just four appearances — is James McDonald, who will see a game if necessary. With the most experience are two established veterans — one with a nice history, one with an amazing history.

Chan Ho Park has been around for some time, but should merely get mop-up duty. He has been used in a solid sixth/seventh-inning role previously, but has been pretty bad lately, and especially on the road (4.50 ERA compared to 2.18 at home). If he enters a game at the Bank, Joe Torre is having a problem.

Then there’s Greg Maddux, maybe the greatest pitcher of our time. Coming over from San Diego, Maddux started as the Dodgers’ No. 5 toward the end of the season. Now he’ll be used in a middle relief role. He’s very good when he sees hitters for the first time in a game (.250 AVG compared to .317 the third time around), so he could be extremely effective in middle relief. Big hitters Burrell, Howard, Jenkins and Feliz have the best track records against Maddux. An interesting contrast to Broxton.

Final Word

This Dodgers bullpen looks tough at first glimpse, but the Phils can match up well against them if they play their cards correctly. Beimel doesn’t have a nice history outside of Howard, so breaking up the big bats might take Beimel out of the picture. While Saito hasn’t seen much of the Phillies, the big lefty bats can hit him. They might not hit Broxton, but there’s a gameplan against him, too. The wild card is Wade. If he’s throwing darts and fooling Phillie hitters, the good guys will be in trouble.

Say the Dodgers starters get through six innings with leads. The Phils will likely have one good chance to beat them after that, and it would probably be the last at bats. If Saito comes in with Rollins-Victorino-Utley coming up, it might be tough. And if Broxton comes in with Howard-Burrell-Werth coming up, it might be tougher. Then again, if Saito comes in with Howard-Burrell-Werth coming up … well, you get my drift. Matchups are extremely important in this series.

Against the Brewers, the Phillies had to get their runs off the starters. They did. It turned out the Milwaukee bullpen performed very well. Now, the Phillies might have to get a couple runs off the Los Angeles bullpen, and it’s not out of the question that they will. These guys are much more hittable than you think, but if the Phils run into the wrong matchup, it will prove futile. Charlie Manuel will be more important than ever.

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Olney: Howard Won’t Be Traded This Offseason

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Wed, October 08, 2008 01:14 PM

Buster Olney is reporting the Phillies will not trade Ryan Howard this offseason. Olney spoke with a “well-placed source.”

Hat tip to MLB Trade Rumors.

For all we know the source could be Ruben Amaro Jr.’s cleaning lady. (I’m envisioning the cleaning lady in “Family Guy”: “No, no, no. No.”) Whatever it’s worth, that could shoot down any rumors. For now.

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Phillies Playing The Quiet Team

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Wed, October 08, 2008 11:53 AM

I’ve been scrolling through “expert” predictions lately, and most people think the Dodgers will beat the Phillies in the NLCS. They’re basing it off the fact the Dodgers are a hot team (as if they forgot the Phils have won like 17 of their last 22 or something).

Whatever. The Dodgers are getting a lot of national press. Of course they would. Big market team. Manny Ramirez. Joe Torre. Manny Ramirez. Manny Ramirez.

The Red Sox are getting their press because they’re the Red Sox. And the Rays are getting their press because … well … they’re the Rays. What a turnaround.

But the Phils aren’t really getting the same amount of press, at least from my point of view. Jayson Stark, of course, is giving some press to the Phils, and he writes about how this year’s Phils are trying to vanquish the ghosts of 1964, 1977 and other years people don’t remember, despite the fact they really don’t care about those teams.

Basically, Stark writes that the Phils are focused on the prize.

And that’s what I’m glad for. I’m glad the Phils aren’t getting ridiculous press. I’m glad people are kind of quiet on the Phils, and predictions are ruling them out. They can just focus on the NLCS, winning it, moving on. Those other teams can have the microphones and tape recorders in their faces. You can’t see 20/20 when that’s the case.

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NLCS Preview Part III : A Stacked Rotation

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Wed, October 08, 2008 10:00 AM

2008 National League Championship Series Preview

Part III : A Stacked Rotation

Probable Rotation
Derek Lowe - 14-11 / 3.24 ERA / 147 K / 45 BB
Chad Billingsley - 16-10 / 3.14 ERA / 201 K / 80 BB
Hiroki Kuroda - 9-10 / 3.73 ERA / 116 K / 42 BB
Clayton Kershaw - 5-5 / 4.26 ERA / 100 K / 52 BB

About

The Dodgers didn’t have the best staff ERA in baseball without having a good starting rotation. And the four guys lined up to face the Phillies in the NLCS all had pretty good seasons, each sporting an ERA+ over 100 (over the league average). Despite an injured and ineffective Brad Penny (who was staff ace, coming off his best season yet), the Dodgers received nice years from young and old.

The Lowe-End Theory

Game one starter Lowe has a nice history against the Phillies. The sinkerballer has a career 3.02 ERA in seven starts against the Phils. This season, however, he had a very normal start — three earned in 6.1 innings. Though he pitched well, he was taken out in the seventh because the Phils mounted a rally quickly. To wit, Lowe is at least hittable in the seventh inning, with an opponents average of .281. Of course, Lowe is at his most vulnerable in the first two innings (when most good pitchers are most vulnerable). In the first, opponents are hitting .292; in the second, .279. But the second time around is much harder.

It’s because Lowe may have a little early trouble finding the strike zone. If that’s the case, hit the first strike you get. In Lowe’s two worst starts of the season (against the Angels and Cardinals), he was victimized by hits early in counts, and runners got on base behind big hits. The goal, then, is to attack and find ways to get on base. Then disrupt him. Don’t let Lowe settle in and get to his sinker. If he does, it’ll be a tough climb up.

Hanging Chad

Chad Billingsley faced the Phillies once this season, and the Phils used situational hitting (and a Jimmy Rollins 3-for-3) to beat him in a 5-0 shutout. Billingsley is a power righty, a fastball-slider cat who can dial the No. 1 in at about 92-93, and the slider is devastating when it’s on. He has gathered a ton of strikeouts, and doesn’t seem to walk too many. He seems to have more trouble with home run hitters, hearts of batting orders. That means Chase Utley and Ryan Howard will be huge keys to a game two victory.

Billingsley won’t usually go more than seven innings. He’s very effective until he hits that seven-inning threshold, so the key is to raise his pitch count. While he won’t walk many hitters, battling the count and going after his fastball are the best ideas. And yes, he’s very, very good when ahead, but very, very bad when faced with a 2-1 (1.045 OPS) or 3-1 (1.291 OPS) count, as he tries to dial up a sure strike not to get behind. Typical strikeout pitcher. If a Phillie hitter finds himself at 2-1 or 3-1, he should go after the pitch almost automatically. If not, it’s slider time.

Kuroda Sonnet

If you remember back to the offseason, the Phillies were in the running for Hiroki Kuroda, but the Japanese pitcher said yes to more money and a Dodgers contract. It has worked out — he’s been a very solid No. 3 for Los Angeles. The 33-year-old Kuroda, a righty, mixes a mid-90s fastball with a slider, a forkball and a hybrid Japanese pitch called the “shuuto” (a fastball/sinker/slider). He likes the fastball, and when it’s hitting its spots, he’s very good. The Phillies saw that both times they’ve faced him — 13 innings, two runs, four hits.

Why do the Phils have trouble against Kuroda? Because he’s a craft righty who throws a whole bunch of pitches … you know … Dave Bush? Same kind of guy. He’s deceptive, he’s a dancer, but he can also dial it up and flame you out of the box. In two very bad starts against the Mets, Kuroda had batters swinging and missing just five times, total. Against the Phillies, he had batters swinging and missing 19 times. What to know is Kuroda will throw strikes — the key to beating him is to lock in on a pitch, not to just go after everything that looks like a winner.

Clayton’s Place

Clayton Kershaw is your classic, big-armed lefty. He has a mid-90s fastball, a big curve that falls in somewhere in the 70s, and a circle-change. In some ways he resembles Cole Hamels, but he’s much more raw and much more prone to having control issues. As you can see, he had worse than a 2:1 K:BB ratio this season. To his credit, however, he has curtailed the walks in the second half.

He had possibly his worst start yet against the Phils, giving up six runs on seven hits in four innings. In that game, the Phils chased him early, with Pat Burrell knocking a first-inning home run. And that’s your key. With an opponents’ .919 OPS against Kershaw in the first, the Phils have to pounce early in game four. That’s the game Charlie Manuel might want to think about moving Jayson Werth and Pat Burrell up in the order.

Final Word

The Dodgers four-man rotation is good. Lowe and Kuroda pose big challenges for the Phils, but the team has seen a good lot of both of them, making it possible they could hit them well. Still, they’ve been very deceptive against a fastball-happy group of Phils, so the good guys will have to temper their bats and be a little more patient, looking for their pitches. The younger, inexperienced Billingsley and Kershaw will definitely be challenging, but the Phils will have better looks against them. It’s the truth — the Phils can just kill those kinds of pitchers.

Situational hitting will be a huge key in this series, especially early. Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino need to reach base and play head games with Lowe and Co. These Dodger pitchers may not walk batters, but they could lose enough focus to possibly lay a fastball down the turnpike. And the Phils better be jumping all over those pitches.

Am I confident the Phils can hit this rotation? Well, situational hitting was a problem in the Division Series, so the outlook isn’t as rosy as I had hoped. But there’s something to be said for scouting reports, the homefield advantage and multiple looks. I’m not envisioning a lot of runs, but if the Phils can scrape together a couple runs in the first three games, they can win two of them. And that’s what they should be seeking.

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Report: Seanez May Replace Happ

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Wed, October 08, 2008 09:26 AM

David Murphy reports Rudy Seanez may replace JA Happ on the postseason roster. Happ didn’t pitch against the Brewers in the NLDS; Seanez has been staying with the team, along with catcher Lou Marson.

Seanez, who pitched for the Dodgers last year, went 5-4 with a 3.53 ERA.

I never understood why Happ was on the 25-man anyway. Seanez is the veteran arm, and a righty, and the need for a righty between Chad Durbin and Clay Condrey is more important than a third lefty. As much as I like Happ, Seanez is the smart play in the postseason. As an example, look to game three against Milwaukee — Seanez could’ve been the guy between Jamie Moyer and the rest of the bullpen; instead, Charlie Manuel had to fumble with Clay Condrey and an overuse of Scott Eyre.

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NLCS Preview Part II : Defeating Manny Ramirez

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Tue, October 07, 2008 02:00 PM

2008 National League Championship Series Preview

Part II : Defeating Manny Ramirez

Then there’s Manny.

About

Yes, Manny Ramirez made this a different team. From April to June the Dodgers hit 53 home runs. From July to September: 84. Ramirez had a lot to do with that — he hit 17 after joining the Dodgers. Ramirez gives the Dodgers exactly what they were lacking: a consistent extra-base hit machine.

And that’s precisely what the Phillies have to stop.

Of course, Andre Ethier, James Loney, Russell Martin and Matt Kemp are important. And so are Jeff Kent, Juan Pierre, Nomar Garciaparra and Rafael Furcal. But Manny is the king. Manny will take this team where he wants to take them. If he hits, they’ll win. Simple as that.

Case in point: When the Dodgers swept the Phillies at Chavez Ravine, Ramirez had 5 RBI. When the Phils swept the Dodgers at the Bank, Ramirez had 0 RBI.

Trying To Stop Him

So how do you keep him from driving in runs? The first, most obvious answer, is to get the guys out in front of him. As I said earlier, the Phils need to shut down Furcal and Martin. The second, next most obvious answer, is to walk Ramirez. Of course, with multiple men on base, you’re running the risk of letting a young kid beat you, and that’s a huge momentum error. The third, next next most obvious answer, is to pitch around him and hope he swings badly. But he won’t. Though he has 124 strikeouts, only 42 are in the second half. Since joining Los Angeles, Manny has suddenly remembered how to hit a baseball.

Okay, so how can you make him record outs? Well, first off, Ramirez is hitting .373 when he puts the ball in play (.407 in the second half), so good luck. But, wait, there are ways.

Pitch Him Here

According to his Dodger Stadium, Fenway Park and Citizens Bank Park hit charts, he has more trouble getting hits into right field, and will hit into a lot of outs on the left side of the infield. That would mean the best places to pitch him are belt-inside, and low and away (where he’d try to get the barrel under the ball). And his hot zones show he’s “just” a .279 hitter belt-inside, and a .282 hitter low and away (everywhere else is fire-red). As the Phils own a couple pitchers who dance in the strike zone, it’s possible for the balls to hit their spots and Manny to come up early or late.

But here’s the kicker. While it seems the best way to pitch Ramirez is by dancing, power pitchers have it much easier. These guys (who tend to walk more, but also strike out more) have held Ramirez to a .265 average, while finesse pitchers (guys who dance around the zone) have received a .382 knocking against him. RBI totals are also as contrasting.

With that last part said, this shouldn’t surprise:

• Cole Hamels hasn’t been hit too badly, at a .250 clip.
• Brett Myers has held Ramirez to .158, but all three hits are extra-base hits. And he has walked Ramirez five times.
• Jamie Moyer has been owned to a .340 average. In 53 at bats, Ramirez has taken Moyer yard 10 times. Moyer does have 12 strikeouts against him.
• Then there’s Joe Blanton. Ramirez has a .560 average in 25 at bats. Yet just two of the 14 hits are for extra bases.

So power pitchers Hamels and Myers should fare better against Ramirez, as long as they throw strikes. Moyer and Blanton? Grab a glove. Luckily Moyer and Blanton match up well with the free swingers around Ramirez, so they’ll have to do their best in those spots.

No Relief

As for relievers? Ramirez has put Ryan Madson, JC Romero, Chad Durbin and Scott Eyre all in his book. And Eyre should not face Ramirez — Manny has torched him, 4-for-4 with 2 HR and 5 RBI. If anyone in the pen should get Manny it’s Madson (.222). Brad Lidge, by the way, struck out Ramirez the only time he ever faced him.

Final Word

I decided to write a lot about Ramirez because, and you can’t hide this, he is the key to this series. Keep him off the board and the Phils should win their sixth NL crown. While it’s important to stop the top of the order, one Manny swing can change the complexion of the series. To beat him, pitchers will have to fire strikes at him, and in his cold zones (belt-inside, low and away). Walking him helps, but you’re taking a gamble either way. Late, the Phils may walk him every time, unless No. 63 or No. 54 are on the hill. And I wouldn’t mind that. They cannot … cannot … let No. 99 beat them.

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The Utley Unknown Continues To Plague Phils

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Tue, October 07, 2008 12:37 PM

As a counter piece to my NLCS preview of the Dodgers offense, I want to mention the struggles of the Phillies most important hitter, Chase Utley.

During the playoffs, Utley has slumped mightily:
.133 AVG / 0 HR / 2 RBI / 1 R / .235 OBP / .200 SLG

That’s poor. Factor in that his two-RBI double could’ve been a catch, and you’re looking at a horrendous four-game split. Of course, it is four games, and Utley has time to make up the poor play, but I’m not expecting a big turnaround.

In the postseason for his career, Utley is just a .154 hitter, slugging .192. While a small sample size still, it tells me he might shrink in the spotlight. Then again, it’s not as if he has bad numbers in big situations for his career:

Late and close: .277 AVG / .392 OBP / .481 SLG
Two outs, RISP: .289 AVG / .396 OBP / .505 SLG
Innings 7-9: .310 AVG / .400 OBP / .531 SLG

So overall, Utley has proven clutch enough, yet in the postseason, he shrinks. We can always turn back to the injury possibility, which is one we love turning to, but a .133 average?

To be honest, I’m stumped. When I watch Utley out there, I see a guy who’s pulling off on the ball, getting out in front, losing a little balance. It’s possible he is pressing, and it’s also possible he’s overcompensating for his hip.

What Utley needs to do is get on base any way he can. He tried it in game four, acting as if he got hit by a pitch (and he may have, replays showed). If he’s not completely confident in his swing, he needs to get on base. And maybe he needs to move up to the two-hole, sliding Shane Victorino to the three-hole. That way Utley can just get on base and advance innings, not try and win games. Because right now, he’s not even close.

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